Geopolitical events like war escalation can trigger market sell-offs, which combined with high leverage in crypto markets leads to massive liquidations (e.g., 656 million longs liquidated in 24 hours), creating a cycle where fear and leverage amplify price movements; however, historical patterns show that despite drawdowns, markets tend to make higher lows and higher highs over time, and regulatory clarity (like the Clarity Act) can provide positive long-term tailwinds for the crypto industry.
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Deep Dive
Bitcoin Under Pressure as War EscalatesAdded:
Welcome back to Cryptos Are Us. I'm George.
We're all George. Welcome to another market open stream. Today, unfortunately, Bitcoin is under pressure. That's right. War is escalating. Asia sold off. We have massive liquidations. We got some stuff that's putting pressure on Bitcoin. So, let's talk about let's talk about everything that's happening today and what more to expect.
All right, let's do it, guys. Let's do it.
Welcome, welcome, welcome.
Unfortunately, we are starting out a day lower. Yesterday, we fell down. We slowly trended down to about 75,000 and then we slid down even more and now we're at 73,000. So roughly 3% 3% lower and this is due, [clears throat] excuse me, due to some of the things I've mentioned. War unfortunately is escalating.
So I don't know who started it but basically the US attacked some uh military base from Iran for its own safety.
Uh and then Iran started attacking US bases and Kuwait is also saying that they had to turn up their air defense system because they're detecting, you know, missiles and drones. So, I don't know.
Right now, it's just like both sides are both sides are like poking each other. Okay. Okay, they're striking military bases and stuff like that, but still it's not helping end the war. And just yesterday it was released that, you know, both sides have come to agreement to open the straight of her moves, right? And it seemed like things were progressing and all of a sudden this happens.
So, it's just it's just like never ending and it's just it's just like little things. Even though these these little strikes are happening, they're still negotiating. It's not like everything's off the table, but it just seems to get keep going and going and going and that's the latest and what you know and while this h was happening uh Asia tanked.
Okay, so you had Taiwan going down 3%, South Korea went down 3%.
Uh Japan went down one and a half%.
Now granted a lot of these markets were recovering so it could have been a little profit taking but also just more fear in general. All this fear mongering basically caused a lot of people to sell and that's actually exactly when Bitcoin fell down when these Asian markets started crashing. Uh so it actually all kind of makes sense all aligned. So that is what happened. Okay, we we always seem to have some kind of pressure and unfortunately when [snorts] when we had this little sell-off, I mean, keep in mind, we only went down like 3%. Right? So, even if you were playing with small leverage, two, three, 5x, it it it's not good, but it's not going to liquidate you. But unfortunately, look at this. We had a long flush over the last 24 hours.
Look at this.
366 million Bitcoin longs flushed out. 240 million of ETH longs flushed out. And then you add Soul, XRP, BNB in the last 24 hours, 656 million longs. basically liquidated.
Well, there's 30 million shorts, but overall 656 just within the last 12 hours, 426.
It goes to show you there are still way too much leverage in the space. People are trying to recover quickly.
So, they're not throwing two, three, 5x, not even 10x. These aren't guys that's throwing 20x, 25x, 50x.
That's how they're getting liquidated with a 2% dip, a 3% dip. Think about it.
You have to have at least a 33x for you to get liquidated.
And that's exactly what's happening, right? So, this is probably the real reason why we got pushed down. oil war all this stuff caused Asia markets to sell off the markets overseas sold a little bit Bitcoin and that led to massive liquidations unfortunately.
So that's that's kind of like the cycle. All right. And there's just there's just too much leverage every single time we see this. And during you know during that November to to I would say March before we started coming up a little bit. We saw this time and time again. Every single week we would see these large flushes. Some caused by Jane Street, some caused by Binance or whoever. But now it seems like we're back at it again because it it did seem like it stopped for like a couple of months while we're recovering, but unfortunately it's happening again. And those market makers uh are glad to do it because they're going to make money no matter what.
So unfortunately that has brought us down slightly.
And today, [clears throat] excuse me, we're waiting for something positive. inflation, right? Inflation maybe to come down, maybe lower than expectation, but no, came in in line. It wasn't bad. It wasn't good. Core inflation comes in at 3.3% as expected. So, this didn't really help much.
uh had it come lower than expectations then you know will help the Fed cut uh cut rates but just came in line.
So this whole thing with oil just one day it goes up 5% another day goes down 3% another day goes up 3% another day goes down it's like you know continues to be elevated which kind of sucks and also unfortunately yesterday we had one of the largest outflows for Bitcoin ETFs.
Uh if you look at the ETF tracker in total in total yesterday we had minus733 million in one single day.
That's a lot. And if you look at the past week or so mostly mostly red mostly outflows.
Unfortunately we're going through that once again.
A lot of fear still a lot of fear and some is not due to fear. Some is due to money shifting reallocating portfolios into hotter and more trendier and more profitable assets for equities. Right? So there is some of that right now. What's really holding us back is this war situation and leverage liquidations.
Those two are really just like holding us back right now. But with all that said, anything good, is there anything positive to look forward to? Right. There is. There is.
You just got to dig. You got to look carefully. Actually, not really, but it's just most people don't care about it. [sighs] Um, Trump all of a sudden tweet this out. Gary Gendler and the anti-crypto army nearly destroyed American crypto industry by driving Bitcoin, crypto perpetuals, and innovation offshore. But Trump saved it. America is now crypto capital of the world. The builders and entrepreneurs are coming back.
Under my leadership, we will codify a future proof digital asset market structure that cannot be undone by the crypto haters. The new frontier of finance being built in America and Trump will never let crypto down.
Why do you need to quote Trump twice in there when you're the one writing it?
So that's a positive. Obviously, right, US as a whole has gone in the new direction. We got White House administration that is 100% pro- crypto.
We got SEC chair that is 100% pro- crypto. Look at Paul Atkins responded to that. Said for too long SEC were at odds with new technology, innovation pushing entrepreneur offshore. That era is over.
under President Trump's leadership alongside colleagues across the admin and Congress were delivering much neededed clarity to the digital asset market. So he's referring to obviously the clarity act. Okay. and himself leading the SEC and the CFTC, they're all working together, not working against each other like previous times, right? To make sure innovation is fostered, staying here in America and moving forward. This is the very big positive. Although most people will ignore this and only concentrate on price and I get that it's depressing to look at price but this is what's happening.
This has happened and we'll continue forward and this is going to set the stage for many many many new things many new innovations to happen. So this is one of the biggest things and the clarity act is right around the corner.
And you have a lot of crypto that will benefit. Okay, ETH, soul, XRP and all these others.
They will benefit.
So there will be new things happening, new services, new innovations, new products, new everything. Even yield is coming. A lot more of it. All this is coming.
And on top of that, after the clarity act, there is going to be some kind of announcement for adding to the Bitcoin reserve that is also happening. So, a lot of things pending right now, right? That t the the the tailwinds is holding us back, but there are a lot of great things to look forward to. It's just that they haven't hit yet. That's what it comes down to. Uh you still have guys like Strategy and Sailor that continue to carry the market, so to speak. You could see that strategy has purchased more than two and a half times the amount that has been mined and they're kind of offsetting how much has been sold by the miners because of their shift into AI. So once upon a time it was kind of like just kind of a meme or joke that strategy is carrying Bitcoin on its back. But like these days is actually kind of true because of these large purchases.
But not just Sailor though, Tom Lee is trying to do the same thing with ETH, carrying it on its back. I couldn't believe it. I had to check our youth tracker and sure enough Tom Lee just bought 111,000 ETH 942.
So net balance is now 7.3 7.4 million ETH. I don't know where Tom Lee is getting his money, but all these buys have all been from Bit weekly, every single week. Last week, they only purchased 15 ETH. This week, they purchased 112,000.
That's kind of nuts. Nuts.
But yeah, so we got guys that are not shifting to AI that are not diverting their attention. They are continuing to stay strong, load up because they have seen this before. Both of these guys have lived through a lot of these cycles. Especially Tom Lee since he's been in the financial space for a long time. They have seen they have seen rough times. They have seen this before. Even Sailor, he came in in 2020. So I came in before him. But still, he saw the bottoms. He saw the bottoms back in 2020 and 2023 and he knows we'll get through this. The Tom Lee has seen it all and has been very pro Bitcoin for a long, long time.
But now he's still pro in Bitcoin, but he's more pro in ETH because of his company and because of the Clarity Act and Genius Bill and all that stuff.
Patience.
Patience.
If you're doubting what could happen, just look back. Look back at history.
History doesn't repeat, but it tends to rhyme. And it's been rhyming the same way for Bitcoin forever. And that is you, yeah, we get we have lows. We always have drawd downs.
But the pattern also shows those drawdowns get smaller.
We continue to make newer lows or higher lows, I should say, and we continue to make higher highs.
That's the pattern, right? So, stay strong, my friends.
Things will get better. All right, that's pretty much it. Let's see. Uh, yeah, unfortunately, we're we're still a little weaker. I was looking at from a TA perspective.
I was, uh, loading up this our TA charts here. Um, looking at some of the things that's happening right now.
Actually, I should refresh this.
This is what it looks like. But, you know, it's kind of a mess. Yesterday, someone asked like, okay, how do we get explanation for this? I mean, it tells you the explanation, but then I realized we have a a bear mode here. And bear mode kind of basically tells you exactly what's happening. So if you look at this you know we fell below a certain level which was right around here about 74,000 that was a previous resistance. So unfortunately we have gone below that and there is another trigger level at 724 which could bring us even lower if we're not able to hold it.
And this also gets explained here, but if you're looking at some of this stuff in a in bare mode, uh doesn't look very good right now.
I think this is the only thing that is looking good on on like a daily scale that obviously we have gone down. We're oversold. We're we're touching upon the lower channel, the Ballinger band, which means that we can definitely flip above.
But if you're looking at a lot of these on the daily looking bad, we fell below the demo of 43 which normally is not a good thing.
The EMA ribbon we have fallen below the EMA ribbon also the 10 20 50 100 200 we're all we have fallen below that. We were holding we were holding at the right here. You could see we were holding between these two like we're getting squeezed and unfortunately we have broken down.
So just gota got to stay strong get through it. That's all I could say. All right.
Uh US market is red today because of the war escalation. I'm assuming I don't think really anything is doing all that well today.
All right, let's do some Q&A.
>> [snorts] >> Something new I did add to Ask Clash for those of you guys that are looking or into stocks.
Uh it's it's here.
So I I kind of redid some of these things here on the side to consolidate.
But everything in crypto obviously all the Intel tools, market cap, token screener, and staking, which I introduced yesterday. Uh, it's all in here. Okay. And staking is important for those of you guys that do want to continue to hold, but you want to earn some yield while doing that.
This shows you how, right? But for markets, you know, all the macro stuff, economic calendar, earnings, all that is under markets. now. And then also I added a stock screener for those of you guys that do want to pay attention to um what's going on with markets, right?
And you get a AI read. This is basically just like coin market cap or our ask market cap but for stocks.
I think it's pretty cool. You could also add to your watch list which will stay up here but also go into your portfolio.
So, and sort by winners and losers and and ask for a a bar and bull case.
I think it's pretty cool. And you can sort it by crypto. Like if you look at all the crypto stocks today, [sighs] looking at good strategy down six and a half, no 5.7%.
Coinbase down in 1.4%.
A lot of these Bitmine even after adding 111,000 ETH is down about 4% today. A lot of the mining companies like Mara, Cipher, I don't even know what Erin is.
Only Riot is up today for some reason.
Everything else is down.
Doge.
Yeah, I mean Doge is uh Doge has always been Doged.
That's just the thing. Uh it got carried heavily by Elon. It he revitalized it.
Doge was left for dead. Even the two founders gave up on it, but one of them came back. Um, but they both sold all all the stuff that they had. They gave up on it until Elon came in and started talking about it and it, you know, he revitalized it.
But these days, he's not talking that much about Doge. He's concentrating on the SpaceX IPO and possibly Tesla being merged in there. And that would be kind of crazy if that happens.
XLM up 22%.
Well, looking at this, it is definitely one of the top gainers.
I think this is a mistake. What is this white Bitcoin? And there's two of them.
That's probably a mistake. Um, man, World Liberty Financials up to five billion. I didn't even know that. That's crazy.
for stellar momentum is confirming across daily and weekly windows.
Interesting. Not sure why it's going up.
Look at the 7day. 7-day up 19%.
Buckling the trend.
Let's ask for a bull and bear thesis on stellar.
I I haven't heard of any stellar news recently, so I don't know. Unless they decide they're like pivoting into AI or they got a lot of partnerships or something.
Yeah, it can't it can't find XLM. Uh, let's try watch next.
Okay. Um, next is consolidate after two week pullback.
Upside catalyst is the upcoming mainet upgrade. Oh, okay. That's what it is.
Uh, Sorrobond smart contracts driving developer adoption. Um, this matters because XOM have uh lagged despite strong fundamentals. A real use case inflection could unlock trap momentum.
Short-term next seven days watch Bitcoin dominance and eat strength. XLM tends to underperform when altcoin season stalls.
So I guess it's Sora that that's what's driving it right now. This the the mainet upgrade.
But just be careful. A lot of times this kind of stuff is buy the rumor, sell the news, right? So you got to be careful after after the upgrade can something happen.
For last 30 days is up about 6%.
Real Madrid said, "Why are we talking about alt? It will go down more." Well, there are a lot of people that hold their bags and they're excited to see when some of them move, right?
This is Tesla today. Tesla is not really moving at all, but it's not going down either.
Nvidia is down a little bit today. Uh AMD continues to be hot. Just look at that chart.
DTCC analysis are using Exxon. What is DTCC?
I don't know why so many of you guys like are really into Stellar.
So many of you guys talking about it.
But hey, if you guys hold stellar and it's moving, good. Nothing nothing wrong with that.
Soul, unfortunately, has been taking a beating. It's back down to February levels.
Why? Why is this not moving ETH?
Yeah, back to February levels. Only Bitcoin is still above February levels.
Unfortunately, it's just uh this war thing never ends and we we continue to have these large large long flushes. You know, if we didn't have leverage, I would think the market would be a lot healthier because every time we seem to have some good momentum, what happens?
Boom. You get a big flush.
But the good thing is, and I actually mentioned this yesterday, if you're looking at like the couple the liquidation heat map, we cleared out a lot of leverage. Okay? If you could see even on the one week, we cleared out a whole bunch of leverage going downwards.
So the good thing is there's not that much leverage below where we are. Like all the meat is gone, right? We had a lot and I I showcased this on on this pressure map also the other day about some levels right around where we are. So, we cleared it. So, there's one more. If we were to fall, there's really one more at 73,200.
And that's pretty much it. But if you look at going to the upside now, there are a lot of levels for shorts to be flushed.
Right now, we got a ton of levels for the shorts to be flushed with. So, that's the good thing. We kind of flushed out everything on the down on the on the long side. There's a little bit left at 73,000, but then outside of that, we got a lot of shorts waiting to be flushed.
It's hard to keep the powder dry with all the tears.
That's actually kind of funny. Um, so who is winning from leverage being liquidated? Is it Binance? Is all the exchanges that offer it?
Every single one. Exchanges win no matter what. If you win or lose to the downside or upside, it does not matter.
They win because of the fees that they collect, right?
I think WBY is gonna have eight rings.
Hey, if WBY could get past OKC, like it's hard to watch these OKC games. It really is. But I don't know. I really want They have a shot. They could still pull back 33 and then win. If they can take out the defending champs, then uh they're gonna win a chip this year. And then probably that's gonna give him so much confidence that yeah, he could keep winning. It's it's hard to see anyone taking him down.
Can you imagine Chad and WMY trying to guard Shaq? Uh Chat will have no chance.
WBY would still would. Uh most likely Shaq will still get what he wants anytime he wants, but when Shaq gets tired, you know, that's when WMBB steps in.
I mean, Shaq would have equally as hard time guarding WBY, too, because Wem is like he got he got the moves. He could shoot from the outside, which Shaq hates guarding. And Wem is pretty damn quick uh driving in the lane, too. So, I think equally they will have a hard time guarding each other. But there, no one's going to guard Shaq. No one can one-on-one Shaq. That's just bottom line.
Um, actually back in the day, I think Sabonis actually did the best because he was the biggest. He had the most weight on him. Uh, and Yao Ming did pretty well, too, because he had had a he had some weight to him. But, you know, if you're skinny, you just don't have a chance.
Yeah.
Stocks doing well today.
Not really.
Microsoft is up. Almost all the big tech companies.
AI not really moving. Only Microsoft is up today. Nvidia barely. Apple barely.
Meta barely.
Palunteer is up.
Yeah. Another big thing is, you know, you it's pretty obvious.
Another big thing that's holding us back is I think a lot of money is shifting into AI too, AI companies. So, some of these large ETF outflows, right? I think it's just like reallocation.
It's not that they they hate crypto or hate Bitcoin. It's just that right now it's more profitable to be in AI. That's why a lot of the miners have done the same thing. It it sucks for miners to do that though, you know, because they hold so much. They've been like hoarding and they have a ton and it kind of sucks when miners start doing that. Um, but a lot of them, you know, they're under pressure. A lot of these miners, they became public trade companies, right?
And because of that, they have shareholders to to worry about and they have a board that is giving the, you know, CEOs pressure like, hey, you gota you got to do what's best for our stock and stuff like that. So that unfortunately is also holding us back.
What's surprising about this is I don't know if you guys kept up but what's surprising is Google is the second biggest now Google has always been like a fourth you know under Apple Microsoft it was Nvidia Apple Microsoft Google and it Microsoft and Apple would flip-flop sometimes but Google is now above Apple and is barely below Nvidia. Yeah, that's kind of crazy to me. Like I did not know how big they got. Even AMD AMD, well, this is just an AI, but AMD is close to a billion. Micron got to a billion. Intel's coming back up. A lot of these guys just moving like crazy.
Why has hype been doing so well? Hype is all about trading and leverage.
They have a ton of volume. People love to trade, right? Which is fine. People love to trade, but this happens.
There are too many too many um too many amateur traders that are for sure like they think for sure they're right and they play with long leverage and this is what happens right so someone asks oh who benefits from from liquidations it's not who benefits it's basically any trades benefit the exchanges this includes hyperlquid Um, but I think Hyperlid is different because they take all their fees and they've been buying hype with it and I think it's been 100%. They didn't say it was going to be 100% but right now they're doing that and it has been working. That's why they're climbing up.
But all the fees, you know, that's how they make money and unfortunately leads to flush outs like this.
They [snorts] don't burn tokens. They've been buying tokens. They've been buying their own hype tokens.
I I do do the same with Clash. It's just I have no profits right now.
Ask Clash is free right now, right? I haven't been charging a subscription. A lot of you guys are using it, but I'm adding more and more stuff to the point where eventually if it cost me so much to run, I need to charge subscription.
And part of that revenue is going to be used to buy Clash. And Clash is the same thing. It's just that we haven't generated enough sole revenue to make a difference.
But yet, it's exactly the same model.
Is it going back to 60K? I I think it's unlikely to go back to 60.
And I think it's unlikely we even touch high 60s. Like right now, we have a lot of resistances that will help us. Um, I don't know what's wrong with my cursor here, but if we go back, there's a lot of levels.
Let's go back. Like we have a 74K one over here.
And then you could go back. There's one like down here. Like, yeah, we got several in a 74. So, I I doubt that we're going to go below 74 unless something catastrophic happens.
then that maybe but I I I don't see us doing that.
Wait a minute. Was my thing outdated?
I'm sorry. Yeah, something's wrong with my stock thing. All right, I'm gonna have to fix this. Something happened with the price. We're actually already below that. We're actually at 70 73.
So, my bad.
[snorts] my uh my pro chart. Something happened to it.
The price is a little bit off atrocious. I'm using GBT and codeex to create my own dashboard. Yeah, I've used the primarily I use my own agent now, but I've used all the LMS.
Um I I got to say like this is why I built this in here. In case people are wondering, there is a AI leaderboard.
Um, so the two my two go-to are GBT and Cursor. Actually, Cursor's Composite 2.5 is really good. Really, really good and really cheap. And you get a quota with their subscription and it's a ton. Even a $20 subscription gives you a lot of usage. So, I would highly recommend that if you're building with GBT, which is really good, but GBT I I feel like OpenAI made uh 5.5 dumber recently. I [snorts] think they made it really smart at the beginning when they first released it on purpose and now they dumbed it down because now it's not nearly as good with troubleshooting, code reviews, ideas.
[snorts] Uh, Composer 2.5 is actually really good. Really, really good. So, I would highly suggest it. It's really cheap.
It's onetenth the cost of 5.5.
So, for those of you guys that are building Uh, would you consider building a deck?
Yes, actually I started. I'm basically 75% done with the decks on ass clash.
So, yeah, it's quite simple. Uh, but the decks I want to build is a going to be a little bit different. You can set a stop-loss, you can take profits. Um, you could also DCA with it. So, all the features that people like, I'll build it.
But yeah, that's uh being built next.
That and more AI like agent stuff. So you can program a you could tell AI agent to do research for you for example um and want to continuously do it for you throughout the day stuff like that.
[snorts] But um I have to figure out the economics of it because that obviously costs money.
Oh, look at that.
US market turned green.
That's always good.
something positive happened [laughter] to make Wall Street come back in and start buying.
Uh so Bryce is asking about Claude.
Claude code is no longer that good. So like every day when I'm working on asslash uh I use like four different LLMs on purpose for idea generation for code reviews for just basic programming of new features.
Um, Claude Opus 4.7 in max mode or high mode or whatever X high is really good at code reviews and it's good at like giving broader ideas, but it's not that good at actually coding anymore. It makes a ton of mistakes and it always gives you like stupid things like, "Oh, this refrator is going to take two weeks. You shouldn't do it." Or, "Oh, it's too many too many steps." Like, it it has an attitude and um and it's no good. GBT55 is the best at coding right now by far, but it's horrible with idea generations and it's not that good with code reviews either. It will catch some important stuff, but it won't catch all of it. So that's where like someone like Cursor, I use Cursor, I use Kimmy, Deepseek, Gemini, I use all of them. Cursor is actually like the third best, but it's the best all around. They they came out with their own LLM that's really good with ideas and with code reviews and writing code. It's not perfect, but it's kind of like the best combination. And it's way cheaper than GBT and Opus. Both of those cost $5 whatever token input and curs is like 50 cents. So, anyone building, just FYI, I've been playing with them all. And I do actually want Grock actually came out there. Grock build too.
Uh, that's wrong. Sorry.
734.
I do actually want to create like um a coding agent too within Asclash for Ava because that's the personal assistant that I created and and I believe she codes better than all these codecs or cloud code or Gemini CLI because I have certain prompts and certain processes built in place. So, I was actually thinking if I should release that for any of you guys that do want to actually do really cool coding breaking US and Iran reach deal. It's so funny. Every day there's like something that says they made a deal and then all of a sudden you have strikes and retaliation strikes. It's like make up your mind. Is it a real deal or not? I thought they had a deal the day before because they already Iran media leaked it out saying that, you know, they're going to open up the hormuz and US is going to pull back all military and all this stuff. And all of a sudden then they had these fresh strikes.
So it's like, is it real? Is it not? I have no idea at this point. Hopefully, it is. And maybe that's why the market is coming back up again.
Yeah, this 33 minutes ago. I don't see anything. Uh, let's see.
>> [sighs] >> Yeah, this all from like a day ago. I don't see anything new on here.
All right, guys. I'm going to go fix a few of these bugs so that they don't exist anymore.
But it's good to see that we're turning around. I mean, unfortunately, the bottom line is we still got all this geopolitical stuff. Hopefully, whatever that broke is real. There's actually a real end to it. Just seems like these days you got a deal and then you have a strike and then you have a deal, you have a strike. It's It's just messing with things. It's messing with things. Hopefully that comes to conclusion and hopefully people learn their lesson and stop getting wrecked by liquidation. Not only are they wrecking themselves, but these flushes just no good overall for the entire space.
However, like I've been saying, there are a lot of great things, too. So, don't ignore those. Okay? This is one of those times where you just have to hold strong and you get through it.
All right? Smash the like. Subscribe to the channel. Take care, guys.
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