ETHEREUM CRASH UPDATE! (Will ETH Fall Lower?)

追加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:03]Good morning, everybody. Welcome back to Selenic Crypto and welcome to this Ethereum crash update. Unfortunately, we have lost support.

[00:00:11]Uh we'll talk about the current situation. We'll talk about the relevant levels here. We'll talk about whether we still have a possibility or an opportunity to reclaim the bullish momentum that we had before in April. Obviously, Ethereum hasn't been very strong for a relatively long period of time.

[00:00:28]Like even early May, when the markets were still quite strong, Ethereum was also underperforming. The ETH/BTC downtrend has been going on for a long time. It's all old news, right? I mean, most of you know about this. Most of you know about the ETF inflows. We will not talk about that. I wanted to make this a little bit more actionable. Look at the current situation. Look at the different possibilities here to potentially buy, maybe short, although I'm always a little bit more in favor of of buys.

[00:00:53]So, we'll talk about that. To start off with a brief fundamentals check. I mean, like I said, Ethereum specific fundamentals not too great. Overnight, we also had escalation in the Middle East. Now, I do think it's interesting and that will be interesting for for the structure and the flows as well, um which we'll get to in a moment. I think most of the most of the opportunities and most of the interesting business is in those two.

[00:01:16]Um but what I do think is interesting is is that although we had um escalation overnight and you can see that equities right right here are down, Russell 2000, risky equities down as well. Uh oil prices are are up. So, that's bad, but ultimately they like oil prices at the moment are are down to the are up to the same levels as they were on Monday. On Monday, we almost had a beast deal. So, it's um look at it might just be lagging and that we will get the full reaction by the markets during the the NYO today or after the news that we have later today with the with the inflation rate data and the GDP data.

[00:01:49]Like maybe it's lagging, but ultimately the crypto markets are reacting far far more to the bearish news than equities are, right? Even risky equities such as the Russell 2000, which normally reacts a little bit similar to to uh crypto.

[00:02:04]So, that opens up the the opportunity for fundamentals that crypto might be a little bit oversold. Now, is the order flow showing that? No. Is the structure showing that? No. So, it's an idea, but as you go, "Oh, wait a minute."

[00:02:17]No, the order flow, I'm not certain if this is correct because it's very new, but the order flow at the moment actually shows negative funding rates right now, which opens up the possibility of a short squeeze. Because you can see right here that we have had a major amount of shorts being opened since Tuesday.

[00:02:35]And for the majority of the time, that was with positive funding rates. So, then it's it's unlikely to get a short squeeze. Right now, it's negative.

[00:02:42]If that actually stays negative, we have the possibility for a short squeeze. So, then we can be relatively optimistic here. We also have some indications here on the 4-hour time frame of mean reversion coming out. So, [snorts] I'd have to say, as long as the funding rates remain negative right here, then I I have to be slightly optimistic for a move into the upside.

[00:03:00]Bullish divergence as well. That is great. Okay, technically, this actually looks a little bit better. Um so, I'd say that that's when we're when we're assessing the flow, it actually looks pretty good right now. However, I must say as well that the structure is still very bad. Right? Because structurally, what Ethereum has done since yesterday, since Tuesday basically, is we have lost the breakout, right? So, April we broke out out of this range that we had right here.

[00:03:25]And we have lost that breakout, right?

[00:03:27]Because here you can see we reclaimed back into that. So, structurally, I have to be bearish, but I do think, especially like as long as those funding rates remain relatively negative right here, I'm not certain if I can trust this data, but then I would say it's most likely here that we are close to forming a local bottom. We have strong support at 1950, 1940 as well.

[00:03:47]Uh close to forming a local bottom, and that from there we can actually get some some sort of a a move into the upside before pushing down lower because ultimately unfortunately I don't think Ethereum is strong enough to break out again. But so so I'd say this is most likely for Ethereum at the moment. The key levels by far are 2150. 2150 we would have to break out above to turn bullish again. I'd say that's unlikely.

[00:04:10]Short-term we have strong support here, bullish divergence, mean reversion. So I do think a local bottom is is coming closer. And then my ultimate support or at least the strongest support I think that's out there is [snorts] or out there or under us is still 1865. Now I don't think it's most likely short-term we're going to fall down into that. Like I said, we have some indications right here that point towards a local bottom forming. So that is good news. But ultimately that is the first level where I would consider buying Ethereum. I don't think the lows or the bottoming confirmations we're seeing right now are strong enough to buy into. I do think it's good enough to tell you that at least we're going to form a local bottom soon, get a bit of a bounce into the upside. And then from there we'll see again. Most likely something like this is is what I would say for now.

[00:04:54]But those are my thoughts for Ethereum.

[00:04:55]That's a bit of an update on what happened over the course of the last 2 days, what happened overnight. Hopefully it helps. For now that's it. Thank you for watching everybody. Take care and bye.