Crypto Ready To SURGE Higher or More Pain Ahead?

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:01]Bitcoin's out on the hunt and it's on the hunt for a new price floor. Bitcoin shot up north of 80,000.

[00:00:09]Now the question is where is Smart Money going to buy the dip? How long are they going to wait and keep their money on the sidelines? Are they going to try to wait all the way for 60,000 or even south of that or will there be a firm bottom, a firm floor put in well before 60,000? And where will that level be?

[00:00:27]We're going to take a look at a lot of news. a lot of information today to try to make some assessments on that. We're going to look at the bond market. We're going to look at Iran headlines. We're not going to look very much at the Clarity Act stuff. Um, that stuff's in the rearview mirror for now, but we're going to talk about a whole lot more and a major research paper from Binance that's been published. You don't want to miss it. Also, at the end of this video, I'm going to give you guys the buys that I made last week. I told the Discord about it last week, but I want to bring to your attention what I scooped up last week and why I scooped it. Let's go ahead and jump on into the morning sentiment. Welcome to Morning Signal. I am Taylor Shum. Let's get into it.

[00:01:12]So, new floor hunting, that is where we are in this cycle. As a crypto investor, you have to be asking the question, where is the new floor for Bitcoin? And what altcoins are great to buy here?

[00:01:27]Fear and greed is at 28. Not an extreme fear, but also not back into neutral.

[00:01:32]So, kind of bouncing around between uh that fear category. Fed rate cut is at a 1.1% chance. Now, it's very unlikely we're going to get a Fed rate cut in June, but we got a new Fed chair. He's in there. There's no if, fans, or buts about Kevin Walsh anymore. He's the new Fed chair for the next 12 years, I think, is the tenure for for big big Kev Walsh. Man, I do not envy him because he's going to have to solve all of the problems that AI is going to throw at this US government and its monetary policy.

[00:02:06]But in June, he will do a press conference. That press conference will set a precedent for what the next uh 12 years looks like for Kevin Walsh's tenure and how he plans and intends to lead the Federal Reserve in their monetary policy creation. Now, moving along here, Clarity Act, 63.5% chance of passing. That is very good. We want to like talk about floors today. It seems like 60 is the new floor for that spread. That's great. That is what we want. Uh I think a week and a half ago I was coming on here that number was in the 40s and I was like that's not good.

[00:02:45]That's not what we want. The number in the 60s is good. That is what we want.

[00:02:49]Made moving along here. Major focus is bond yields. I don't think I'm going to show the charts on bond yields. They look nasty. They don't look good. Uh the 20 and the 30-year are above 5% but there's been some cooling over the weekend. So they cooled off. They're not shooting higher this morning into the New York session. They're actually uh coming down a bit, but they need to come down because it's it's starting to get to the point where the real rate of return for fixed income investors is being eroded. Why? Well, because inflation is rising and that is cutting into the real rate of return for the yields. Uh so that is something that the bond market's going to have to resolve.

[00:03:32]Obviously, if the incoming Fed is going to eventually cut those rates, that real rate of return is going to uh reduce even more if inflation persists. You see, you see how that uh completely makes the the thesis the the thesis for buying US debt completely invalidated because if inflation is north of 3% and the Fed wants to bring the Fed funds rate down, well, why would I go buy bonds if the real rate is is going to be one or maybe 2%. Right? That is going to be the average thought in the bond market. And guess what happens from there? They leave the bond market. They go back into risk out of fixed income.

[00:04:11]they say, "Hey, I have to go buy stocks." That's part of the reason why the stock market is shooting to the upside and keeps putting in all-time highs is because the market is forward-looking and it understands that that's what's likely to happen. It's kind of a form of a carry trade uh like what we see coming out of Japan, but that's but it's different. Have to pay attention to the bond market here. It's complicated. Just keep tuning in to this channel and I'll keep you up to date on what you need to know. The bond market is also can be interpreted in this way that it is testing the new Fed chair's balance sheet view. I I don't want to spend too much time on this, but Kevin Walsh has spoken that he does not want to use the balance sheet for the Fed, meaning going out and buying a bunch of bonds and being a net injector of liquidity into the economy. Some would that's called quantitative easing. Uh Kevin Walsh has has been on record as saying that he's not a big fan of doing that in the same way that Alan Greenspan, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell all were very big fans of bringing on the balance sheet uh US debt to be able to be a net injector into the economy. So these as the bond yields go higher, that is a that is kind of a call out of the bond market to Kevin War saying, "Hey, come on into the ring.

[00:05:29]Let's duel. let's fight, you know, show us if you're bluffing about not using the balance sheet or if you really will use the balance sheet. Even if you just talk about it and say that you will, that'll be enough. But until then, there's a good chance that the the bond market's going to take this opportunity for elevated inflation via the Iran war pushing oil higher to go ahead and put the pressure on Kev Kevin Walsh in his first week of uh of being the chair there at the Fed. So, it's very interesting times. If all of that went over your head, but you still want to be a crypto investor, don't worry. This is the kind of place where I'm going to bring all that kind of stuff into clarity. Um, I'm I do make these videos though for paying members of our Discord community that uh and I also put them live for free uh out on YouTube as well.

[00:06:16]So, you're getting it for free, which means if you don't understand something, you got to go do your own research. If you are in the Discord and you're paying member, you're probably a little bit more advanced. So, I'm speaking directly to you and you understand what I'm saying and I'm just giving you an update. Uh, but you also in the discord can ask me questions in the channel for uh VIP fundamentals. Don't hesitate to ask me those questions because I can answer them quickly and help you get on the road to clarity. All right, moving along here in the morning sentiment.

[00:06:47]Uh, US proposes temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions. Iran sources say so probably no, they aren't. Uh but this is according to Iran. They are looking to remove those oil sanctions. This is a developing story. What I'll say is that if this is confirmed by the White House or by SETCOM or or by some official US organization, this is quite bullish, right? This would mean that there's been a compromise found and that the the United States is prepared to uh kind of give what Iran what they want, which is removal of sanctions.

[00:07:21]So, I don't think this is going to be real. I I think that this is a headline that's being put out by Iran, but it's not real. Um, we'll see. We'll see what the what uh what the US does if they confirm or deny it. As of 950 AM EST, I don't think that there's been a confirmation or a denial from the US.

[00:07:41]Iran expects 10 billion Bitcoinbased insurance system for straight of Hermuse. This is the first day that we're seeing this headline. Of course, a few weeks ago, we got headlines saying that Iran was charging Bitcoin and other stable coins for passage through the straight of her. It does showcase the use case of Bitcoin and that it's permissionless and immutable, which is great. Um, but I at this point in time, I think that this is noise. This is not signal yet. Um, but I'm going to bring it to you all's attention because it's Bitcoin related and it's also Iran war related.

[00:08:18]So, it's it's interesting, but this doesn't really it first of I mean, first of all, it doesn't really seem to have had any influ influence on Bitcoin prices. I'll show you here in a second.

[00:08:26]But secondly, this is just it's I don't know. It's just noise, right? It's part of the 4D chess info war game that's going on between Iran and the United States. Okay. Uh bullish vibes. Michael Sailor bought a whole bunch of Bitcoin. A whole bunch to the tune of 2 billion. That's a big number for how much they buy. That's on the upper range of that of that. Uh so that's really good. Bit mine buys uh 157 sorry 157 million worth of ETH. Also very bullish for ETH. Very good. Okay.

[00:09:02]So where do we go from here? I want to give you guys an my idea of how to assess where the floor is going to be for Bitcoin. What I want to do is start on this chart here. Now this is a power law curve. This is the power law curve for Bitcoin. This is the BTC power law corridor. If you guys want to go find this indicator on Trading View, I believe it's free. I think it's free.

[00:09:25]It's not part of Flow Signals or anything like that. Um, by the way, Flow Signals is our awesome indicators for trading much lower time frames, but uh because I'm on the monthly here for Bitcoin, but this is just a cool uh power law corridor. Anyway, so this is kind of like where I like to start, right? So in the past for Bitcoin, Bitcoin has not meaningfully traded below the bottom line of the of the power law corridor ever, right? So it it has gone below it, I will point out, but it's never it's never stayed below it for a long long period of time. So back here in March 2020, um there was definitely a period of time where it traded below, right? On the monthly candle though, it did not close, right? And then back further back in history, you can see that there were absolutely times uh when Bitcoin did come down and test, not only test, but but even close a candle. In the case back here of October 2015, closed a candle and wick down below that that bottom of the curve there. Uh you have to go really far back though. So this is so the power law is an exponential curve. uses an exponential formula to arrive at the uh kind of a the price structure of Bitcoin over its entire life cycle. So far it has it has been exponential right nonlinear like Nvidia like a lot of things um in nature by the way not just financial markets but uh this is this is very cool very awesome I like to look at this all the time now one of the things that I like to do as well is look back now forgetting the the corridor here that's one thing but now we're just looking at monthly candles in general right so one thing that I like to do is look at the monthly closes the candlestick closes and the wick and the wick levels. So, you could you could put a line like right around here at 625.

[00:11:24]That might be a good estimate just back of the napkin type of technical analysis of where Bitcoin's floor could be, right? Especially when you're someone who bought up here and a watching the price come down here, right? And that would have ended up being a very reasonable floor for that point in time.

[00:11:42]Now, this was a very high scare. Uh everybody was a fe, you know, fear was uh extreme fear was ruling the day.

[00:11:50]Everybody was in extreme fear. And so that that led to uh probably a more pronounced a more um uh overselling type of type of uh panic than was appropriate, but that's what you got.

[00:12:05]And then when once you were done with the overselling here with this, you then came back and closed the candle around 669. Right? So, that was that was an overselling, but it came into a pretty reasonable just came down and tested the previous bull markets all-time high monthly candle close. Okay, saying a lot of big words. By the way, these are candles. I had somebody reach out and say, I finally learned what a candle was.

[00:12:32]I'm I don't try to be unaccessible with this content, but this is this is what a candle is. A candle is these individual candlelooking objects. All right. So, that's the monthly analysis I just did. That's back of the napkin.

[00:12:46]I've done a much more honed um not so back of the napkin, right? Uh drawing out of p these price levels monthly and weekly close. So, the these are these levels are in harmony with what Bitcoin has done in the past um and the levels that it's kind of concluded. What were the new floors? What were the new ceilings? Right? That's kind of the way we're thinking about it today with today's theme of Bitcoin hunting to find a new floor. All right. So, let's get off the monthly chart and we'll go down to the daily chart. Keeping in mind that these levels that you see here, this purple box, the little um lip here, and and then this box here, these are all congruent with the monthly closes and and also weekly closes, too. Okay. So, where's the floor for Bitcoin going to be? I kind of gave out a cheeky prediction on the Tim Warren Trading Channel. Uh that would be 77500. 77,500.

[00:13:39]That is that was a pretty good prediction for um for the weekend. But now Bitcoin has immediately sliced through. Uh so there's a chance that the floor comes in and doesn't go lower than the previous daily candle closes here around 757.

[00:13:56]Okay, that would be interesting. I believe we should turn on the Ballinger band as well. uh not for the daily but also but for the weekly and see where does that bullinger band print for Bitcoin. I'm a big Ballinger band guy.

[00:14:12]That Ballinger band right now is printing at 75100.

[00:14:16]Okay, so back of the napkin TA when I say back of the napkin I mean this is not precise tradable TA. This is just my interpretation of the charts. Um you could kind of say okay we had two 75 levels there. we had a 756 and then with that weekly Ballinger band you get 75100, right? So maybe the maybe the new floor is 75 somewhere in there because you're always going to get oversold um of what the what the actual level is going to be if that makes sense. Okay.

[00:14:48]Now, we also have some more confluence here. You have this local high coming back in here. when Bitcoin went all the way down to 72 and then rallied, it got up to 759, but it didn't close a daily candle until back down here at 70 uh 48.

[00:15:05]Okay, so generally this would be kind of a an area that I would draw a box somewhere around here, right? And then get down to uh 75100.

[00:15:20]75100 would be right around in here. And then you get this this these candle closes, these daily candle closes back here. So somewhere somewhere right around in this area is a pretty reasonable next level floor for where Bitcoin could potentially find support and continue its move higher. Now make no mistake, there are very talented analysts out there who not only think that we could go below this, but think that we could go uh below 60, right? So I think that that's on the table.

[00:15:49]Definitely don't think that I am saying we can't go much lower. But with the sentiment shift, we're no longer in extreme fear on the fear and greed.

[00:15:57]We're now in fear and we've even ticked into neutral with that sentiment shift and also with the amount of money that's been made in the Korean markets from the semiconductor bull market. There's a decent argument to be made that there's that there's a lot of people who would buy Bitcoin right around in these levels, right? The next level down from there. So kind of that 70 north of 75 but not higher than 757 level would bring me to uh right around here at this uptrending line of support that goes back to these two anchor points on March 29th and February 6th, right? These two lows that came in.

[00:16:39]And so that's where I arrive at this untrending line of support. And that would put Bitcoin if it fell all the way today down to 69. Right? So 70 70 is where I would start to be a little bit surprised if Bitcoin was to trade below 70, right? Um that would be a little bit surprising for me. I wouldn't be shocked. I wouldn't because we have talented analysts that are saying south of 60 is still on the table according to Woff theory. Um, but I I believe that even though that was true, that doesn't necessarily have to continue to be true into the future because that WOFF theory can be invalidated. I don't know if that's been fully invalidated yet, but that's kind of where we are with Bitcoin price hunting. So, level one 70 uh 748 up to 758 would be my first levels. And then the next levels below that would functionally be this uptrending line of support which if we fell down all the way today it would be around 69. But by the time realistically the market would trade down there it would probably find a floor around 71 or maybe even 72.

[00:17:48]Okay. So that's kind of where I think we find the floor. By the way, that's very bullish. Even though I'm saying, "Hey, price is about to go down." That doesn't mean that I'm bearish on Bitcoin long term uh at all. I think that all of the indicators are showing me that we're going to be going much higher for Bitcoin, but it's got to work through where it is right now. It's got to chop through all of the supply, all of the people that want to sell, right? Uh this is a good market psychology moment.

[00:18:14]There's a lot of people go to a cleaner chart here. A lot of people, even smart money, that bought up here, right, that bought Bitcoin up here and it's been wanting to sell. Okay, maybe even it even bought right around in here, right?

[00:18:30]So, that's why we're not just shooting higher right now is because all of these people, these two cohorts of buyers, and look, you could even go back and say people want to take profit back from entries back in history. That's absolutely true, too. But there's two cohorts of disgruntled buyers. Buyers that bought and are at a loss and want to sell for break even or even a discount to break even, right? So, that's why Bitcoin's struggling. uh I wouldn't say struggling, but that's why there's a there's a ceiling on where where we've gone. Now, I think a lot of analysts watching price action in here would not have thought that we would go all the way up to uh 80 827 828 basically. Um but we did hit our head there and that's where the the amount of these sellers the amount of these sellers cohort exceeded the amount of new buyers that were coming in. Okay.

[00:19:22]So, so you just need to exhaust all of these sellers, right? These sellers need to go ahead and exit the market so that there's no more sellers and then you have buyers. All right. Now, we had a research paper here from Binance that kind of tells a story that resonates, that harmonizes with what I just showed you. This is from Binance Research. A lot of people think that Binance is the big bad market manipulator. I do think that they are their hands are not clean in that regard, but uh I don't put it squarely on them as to be the market manipulators. They they they share a role in that. They put out this research paper. So take it what I I say all that to say, take what I'm about to say with a grain of salt. They have an angle, right? They're not they're market participants. They're not just a you know a independent neutral third party.

[00:20:11]They have a and they have an agenda.

[00:20:13]With that said, we want to hear what they have to say. Charting the week, this is their latest post here from Binance Research. Four onchain signals point to the same conclusion. Supply is tightening and sell pressure is exhausted.

[00:20:27]Okay. Now, that is a definitive statement. I'm not convinced that sell pressure is exhausted quite yet, but they if you guys want to go check it out, you can you saw the handle there.

[00:20:37]This is this is their explanation. Uh, Bitcoin one plus year hodddler wave remains near 60%. Long-term hodddlers in short-term hodlers out is also looking favorable. New buyers still in sit underwater.

[00:20:53]Uh, new buyers still sit underwater. And then uh, Bitcoin exchange balance hits six-year low. This is the big one that I wanted to highlight for you guys. Get a load to this. Again, this is from Binance Research. Since peaking at 17.6% 6% during COVID. Exchange balances have fallen to 15% today as 500,000 Bitcoin have permanently left exchanges, reducing the available sellside supply to a 6year low. Now, that's a lot of words. Maybe you didn't follow that, maybe you didn't track it, but think about it like this. these two cohorts here that bought and they want to sell, they are starting to take those opportunities to sell here, right? Whether they're selling for a loss, um whether they bought here, bought here, and then also bought down here, right? That would have been the smart play. This would be very smart money operation operating because they break they bring their average from let's say 119 and if they bought here as well right now that average becomes 93 right so they're they're taking much less of a loss if they were to sell here than if they were to not have bought here and averaged out. That's you know that's classic dollar cost averaging theory and that's something you definitely need to know about if you're a crypto investor. All right. So, that's all very very good research from Binance.

[00:22:22]I'm convinced, by the way. I don't I don't think that Binance is trying to lie to everybody and get people off sides so that they can um drop the market out. I think that that's they're just they're they're as convinced as anyone that the bottom is probably in and it's going to take a black swan for there to be a new low because price has come back up, right?

[00:22:44]and it's come back up on somewhat small volume uh somewhat low volume. But overall, I do think that there's there's a lot to be uh pretty bullish about in terms of what price action showing us, the momentum of the Clarity Act and the inevitable end of the Iran war hopefully ends sooner rather than later. Um and then also continued, you know, uh bullish headlines that are coming out around China and US trade. All right.

[00:23:10]Now, I'm going to give you guys I told you guys I'd give you the vid uh the buys of last week, my buys. The Discord got this last week, right? So, if you're looking for a trading community where I publish uh my buys early before I show them you here on YouTube and also you guys can get access to the amazing rich content that's in our trading community of people who are actively trading uh kind of showing how they arrive at the conclusions of why they're entering, how they're exiting. Um and also courses ma massive amount of courses where you guys can go learn how to trade from videos that Tim made. Um, so I don't know why you wouldn't do that. If you're looking to learn how to trade, there is no better place than the VIP trading group.

[00:23:53]You can find the link down in the description for that where you also get access to this. So you get access to this early.

[00:24:01]So what did I buy? I mostly bought crypto and AI plays. So the crypto stocks that I bought, I'm not going to show the charts. The crypto stocks that I bought are Bitmine. We talked about it today. This is a, you know, an amplified version of Ethereum price action essentially BMR. It's not a 3x, it's not a 2x leverage. It's amplified, which is a new concept kind of in the digital investing space. Then you got Node. Node is Node has very little exposure to any crypto um assets. They are the Pix and Shovels ETF of crypto. This is Node.

[00:24:36]This is an ETF on the New York Stock Exchange. I don't know if it's tokenized. I'm sure it is by now. But that's the concept there. Node and it's a Van ETF as well. So there's a whole digital assets investment team there.

[00:24:49]It's a lot of Bitcoin miners as you would expect, but there's there's some names in there that are interesting in the ETF. If you don't understand what I just said, don't worry about it. Go look at the go look at the ticker. You can see the holdings. An ETF holds a basket of assets.

[00:25:03]Hopefully you know that by now. But anyway, uh moving along. SBA. SBET is very similar to BMR, but it's just a higher amplification of Ethereum price action. And then you have XXI which is a competitor to Michael Sailor's uh strategy company. They are a Bitcoin DAT company, right? So, SB, SBET, a Ethereum DAT, BMR is a Ethereum DAT, XXI is a Bitcoin DAT, node is a crypto industry ETF. Okay. AI stocks. Not going to spend too much time on here because I know that you guys are mostly crypto investors, but these are what I picked up. Um, CRBS, this is the new IPO uh that's looking to compete with Nvidia.

[00:25:46]They produce those AI chips. I think the chips are going higher as you can see with the rest of my picks here. EW, that is the emerging markets ETF for Korea and the SOXX, that is the semiconductor ETF. And then you have INTC another uh semiconductor play. LNC is energy. Oklow also energy. So the last two are AI energy. The first four are semiconductors functionally although classically the EWY ETF is just for the Korean stock market in general. But the Korean stock market has essentially become a proxy for semiconductor exposure via uh Samsung and that that other company that I can never remember, X or whatever it's called. All right. Uh I'll do a little bit of TA here on this is the S&P by the way, but I'm going to go look at uh SOXX.

[00:26:42]I bought the dip um and with probably about a quarter of the total position that I want to take in SOXX. SOXX again semiconductor sector ETF fund. So you're buying high here. You have to realize that you're buying high. Usually as an investor you want to buy low to sell high. This is this is different. Why?

[00:27:03]Because this is a this is part of the nonlinear exponential AI revolution. AI has to have chips. They already knew that. And then you had then you had um a whole new layer of AI that uh called inference that that made it clear that the industry is going to have to have even more chips. Okay. So the chips demand is not going away. The backlog for the companies that are in this ETF are immense. If you're a crypto investor, you're probably rolling your eyes saying this is our comp competition. And I would just encourage you until proven otherwise, you have to be on the AI train. It is what's getting liquidity. It is what's getting headline. It is what's getting market share. It is what's getting smart money dollars invested. So you have to pay attention to that. Now, uh so so I think that uh SOXX could potentially come down lower. Um I'm on the weekly chart here, so maybe levels right around uh 460 could be interesting. maybe even back down to these levels here, but I would be buying on the way down, right? And and uh again, the first amount that I bought in is about a quarter of how much I want to own. So, you have to kind of think about that proportionally, not financial advice. Folks, it is a great time to be an investor because there are the stock market's an all-time high, right? And there's an argument to be made that it is going to pull back, but there will be a new floor. Now, that is true for Bitcoin. It is true for the S&P. This is the S&P 500 on the weekly chart. You can see it is arguably going to be topping out here as it reaches a resistance right around 75.

[00:28:45]But as you can see, it wicked even beyond that all the way up to 7519.

[00:28:51]I think though that there will be a cooling off period at some point. But as you can see here on the weekly MACD for the S&P 500, it's just getting started, right? This is this is a move that can be sustained. The momentum is not waning here. Okay, if we contrast that to what Bitcoin's weekly MACD looks like, this is even more bullish, right? This is the the the momentum here on the histograms is actually waning a bit, but this is moving in the right direction and it's starting from subzero, right? Whereas the S&P is way above zero. Okay. So I'm buying I'm buying semiconductors because it's con because it's connected to the exponential revolution in AI but I'm also buying crypto because it's underbought. Okay.

[00:29:40]Microchip uh semiconductors are not over are not oversold.

[00:29:45]They are overbought. Okay. Crypto is underbought. So, I'm buying them both for different reasons. It's what diversification is all about. Portfolio overall going to the upside. Folks, thank you so much for watching today.

[00:30:02]Make sure that you tune in the rest of the week as we navigate these bond yields. That is the name of the game.

[00:30:08]How is Kevin Walsh going to react to the bond yield volatility? Is he going to announce some new facility to go out and buy bonds and bring demand to the bond market to keep those yields sub five?

[00:30:22]We'll see. Uh I think if there ever was going to be a Fed chair that was going to stand up to the bond market and provide some discipline, it would be Kevin Worsh. So we could be in for an interesting uh rest of 2026 to see how that pans out. Um, in any case, AI may be completely in in its own lane and so so might be space ETFs as well as those are somewhat alternatives uh to what the to to names like Walmart or um uh Home Depot or names that are more tied to traditional markets versus future uh nonlinear exponential markets. So, uh, just because there's panic in the bond markets and Kevin Walsh may not be there to, uh, fix that panic with what would usually be a a balance sheet buying policy.

[00:31:19]Uh, doesn't mean that the nonlinear AI and space SP stocks don't continue to go higher. Um, I do think for crypto, you do have to have some some liquidity come in though. So, that is what we're listening for on the crypto side. We're hoping that Kevin Walsh does print what but we'll take cuts. Cuts will also be um more than suffice in my opinion, but those cuts are not likely to come in the summer as Kevin Walsh is going to need time to convince the rest of the board to see things his way. Folks, see you tomorrow. Adios.