Financial markets are heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions and political statements, with market sentiment often diverging from actual policy outcomes; the 1987 stock market crash demonstrates how bond market instability, new leadership transitions, and program trading can precipitate market crashes, while modern markets show increasing concentration in tech stocks and profit margins that reflect broader economic transformations.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
Ed & MIke May22 2026Added:
Hello everyone and Dollar Vigilante subscribers get the special welcome uh to Ed and Mike's uh show and uh well it's Not really a show. It's just a thing.
>> Work in progress.
>> Yeah, it's uh >> weekly update.
>> Yeah, it's our weekly it's our weekly update of of of markets and and stuff that um that we can share not behind a payw wall. And uh so where where are we Mike? Are we going to go to war with Iran or not?
>> That seems to be the hot topic that's driving everything.
>> Yeah.
>> I mean me personally I don't know. I don't know what's going on, but the uh the markets certainly think we got peace in the works, right? So, the uh the headlines for the end of the week, uh markets, so markets started off the week on a on a on a bad foot. You know, they had a three-day losing streak, but they ended the week with a sharp sharp end of the week reversal. Dow made an all-time high, which hadn't done I think since February. Was the top performing US market. S&P is close to logging its longest winning streaks in three years.
NASDAQ didn't set a new all-time high this week, but it did last week and it got pretty close to it this week.
>> So, yeah, the re the reversal happened kind of midweek when Trump said he wasn't, you know, for the like how many times has he said this, I'm not going to bomb Iran today. We'll give him a chance to review a peace proposal. So, he came out and said that there's rumors that they're they're considering a peace uh proposal. And then of course we had the the Senate voted uh 50 to 47 to advance the war powers resolution which is aimed at you know withdrawing the US from the Iran conflict. So I think that all culminated in in the in the markets getting being bullish that there's going to be peace. But I don't know do do you see peace? The other the other headlines I I keep seeing is Iran's not um not considering uh giving up its nuclear.
It's it seems like it's hardlined on that and it's also hardlined on >> Yeah. wanting to charge a toll for ships going through the straight even after this whole thing is said and done and the US seems to be hardlined against those two two outcomes. So it see it seems like we got you know the gap can't be closed but the markets think it can be like what's your take on that? Well, just as a recap, so last week Trump went to China and uh he got no concessions out of China, came back promoting how great the leader was. Xi is great, great great man. And I think he got a couple hundred uh orders for Boeing and >> which was a disappointment. You know, they flag it as a as a success, but the analysts and Boeing I think themselves was expecting 500 >> and he said a couple things that China's leaders came out later and rejected. You know, there was I think there was a comment that Trump was like, "No, no, Zia assured us that they're not selling arms to Iran." And uh China later came out and said, "No, that's none of that is true. We never we never said anything like that. This guy, this Trump, I mean, he I mean, you know, Mike, my view on on on Trump is that he's really the um it's a bit of a unique view, I think. I mean, it shouldn't be because there's it's not like there's a posity of of data out there about the guy. He's been in the news for 50 [ __ ] years. And he's obviously, if there's one thing that you could say that's that he's good at, what would you say it is?
>> [ __ ] >> Promote. Promotion. Promoting, right?
He's really He's the best promoter I've ever [ __ ] seen. people just slap it up, you know, if they if you know, if obviously he's not gonna convince people who don't like him to like him, but if you're like just the average guy and you're listening to to to Trump, he's a great promoter. He's a great promoter of himself mainly.
>> Well, I say I say great bullshitter, which I think is is similar as a great promoter because >> sure he's able to he's able to say things out of both sides of his mouth, right? He he's able to talk both sides of an issue and yet his supporters are unwavering. Unwavering and because he's able to anytime he he he spins something different than he has been he's able to [ __ ] in such a way promote it in such a way that nobody nobody bats an eye that hey this is exact opposite of what you just said to us.
>> Right. Right. It's not like as if there's no evidence that he's lying or he hasn't done this before contradicting himself.
It's like lot the evidence is like it's abundant and it's it's kind of a mystery of our time. People just they really want to believe that he's the savior.
He's going to change things. But when you listen to him talk about what's wrong with this system, he just winds the clock back to Obama or or Biden as if this story hasn't been going on for decades or longer. So it just I think that just shows his understanding is very very poor about what what has made America shitty. I think so. Last week he went to China. Okay. And I viewed that as him taking time off from the Iran war, which I think proved to be true.
There was no comments made about Iran or anything other than what he said China said about it. And so, but then when he came back, he was like, "No, the Iranians are not making any sense. We have I think he talked up the idea of going back in a little bit."
>> Yeah.
>> And >> more threats.
>> Right. and and it looked like, okay, well, they're going to restart the bombing campaign. They can't seem to come together on anything. They kept he kept talking about this idea of of of um of no nukes. Then the sup Supreme Leader came out and said, "We're not we're not going to let you have our enriched uranium."
>> No.
>> Oil prices started to catch a bid. Then we hear that they're uh they are closer to um to a deal than we thought. And >> but according to who? Like according to Trump like that's what I'm so confused of.
>> Well, I think I think the war powers resolution has had an effect as well.
>> I think I think that's a big And but did you So that was a kind of a tricky thing too because then there was news today that I had trouble wrapping my head around. So apparently so the Senate voted um in favor of of it, right? Which was a bit of a surprise. had I think four Republicans um vote for it. And so then the next thing for this to actually go through though is that the um uh the House I think needs to vote on it next if I got that right.
>> I think there are different bills, Mike.
I think there are different war powers resolution bills. I think the House is looking at a different set and I think the Senate is looking at a different set.
>> Possibly that that could be true. Um >> I'm not. So, so from my understanding though that that that House vote was supposed to happen I don't know this week and I think the Republicans got whiff maybe because of the Senate vote that they weren't going to win it. So they so they were able to just cancel it I guess but I think from my understanding it's not a real cancellation. It's still going to come but it's been postponed now.
>> Yeah. They delayed it till after the Memorial Day week closing.
>> Yes. So to me that seems to increase the likelihood that Trump is going to act before June 1st.
>> Act in what way? Like peace aggress?
>> No. Aggress aggress against >> but when that would that hurt his case though like because I mean if the house does vote for this that will be the end right? That means that that unless Congress supports a right like that, it will be the end of the war.
>> Unless the escalation, unless he escalates and flares up a war to such an extent that, you know, they'll be like, well, we can't really stop it.
>> But it would have to be almost like a retaliation. It couldn't be like just Trump bombing Iran. It would have to be like Trump bombs Iran and then they retaliate.
>> It escalates. Yes, it escalates. And I think all of this time, you know, the Iranians are have the PR on their side. It seems seems like, you know, everybody's not not that they think that the Iranians are the good guys, but they think that the Americans are sort of the bad guys. A lot of >> a lot of the the popular the popular the consensus, let's call it. But I think that the Iranians being the bad guys have been using this time to their advantage and rebuilding. We're hearing now we're hearing news about that.
>> Yeah. No, I've heard that. Yeah.
Factories back online. Drones getting built. Yeah.
>> From from from the US side. The US intelligence is saying that. And so Trump didn't like that. He called it treasonous.
>> Oh, I didn't hear that part.
>> Yeah. And you think that it would So if you know if Trump went in, I think it would be the escalation would be bigger than what we what we've seen so far. But the markets don't believe it. the markets are saying, you know, are are buying up are buying Trump's line. And on the oil front, you could probably there was there was some news that the >> 26 Chinese tankers went through the straight.
>> Right. Right. And the Americans were easing up on Russian sanctions, oil exports, I believe.
>> Yes.
>> So, I think that also got to weigh on oil price as well. So, it's it's looking like as if the markets are like signaling that, you know, we're heading towards peace and um you know, I think that's what we've we've seen this week, but it's again, you know, so I'm not saying anything that you you don't know or our viewers probably don't know, but this guy is so hard to predict.
>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's just a constant flip-flop. It's just it's you know it's getting it's almost >> it's it's sorry to interrupt but it's annoying that we even have to to have to game it you know. So >> and I I I you know with these prediction markets and everything I feel like it's turned into a whole [ __ ] sport the whole like pastime of big swath of the population just justing on what he's going to do next.
>> Yeah.
>> Crazy times.
>> Yeah. So so what do we do? I mean how do we how do we game it? I mean, you know, one thing is for sure, you got the um you got the stock markets at record highs and and and and Trump keeps pointing to the doubt as as proof positive that of his the wonderful policies that he's promoting in America.
See, I'm making America great again.
Look at the stock markets. Look at GDP.
Look at the jobs reports, you know. And >> that's why he's Jesus. That's why he made a picture of himself as Jesus. He's the savior. It it's it annoys me that anybody that people think in terms of stock market performance and linking it to the politicians in the first place, you know, as if you know, you know, compared to Biden's term, let's compare it to Obama's term. I mean, that's not the way to look at a stock market. It's not like as if politicians create the bull and bear cycles. The Fed does. And the Fed is not always aligned with every political group. In fact, I think most members of the Fed board are Democrats.
So, you know, they're not all it's not as if they're controlled by the politicians. And, you know, in fact, as you know, politicians are sort of a revolving door. They're the they're the puppets. They're the they're the gong show that we all watch. They're the entertainment. You can see that even even as autocratic as Trump is, as authoritarian as he is, he can't get through a lot of the things he's trying to get pushed through. Well, is he going to get Worsh to push through lower rates?
>> Say again.
>> Is he going to get Worsh to push through lower rates? What do you think? Got sworn in.
>> It's not totally up to Worsh. It's right. It's up to the board and Powell is going to stay on the board.
>> Yeah.
>> And he's probably going to fight Worsh.
So, so we're we're going to see, I guess, how much power the president has.
But obviously, you know, you can foresee the script playing out. If the stock market trips up and crashes, what's Trump going to do? He's going to blame the Fed. He's going to say, "Ah, it's cuz you didn't cut rates fast enough.
You should cut rates earlier." And, you know, then that's going to set fight some people on his side and some people who who will try to uh oppose him. But the Powell side will be weakened by that and they'll be like, "We got to cut rates now at any rate because that's their playbook. That's all they know. I just I just found it was um the media this week with you know when it's talking about uh you know worse get getting put in and you know um yeah they know the Fed meeting minutes came out and it shows that they're divided. A bunch of them are looking for hikes. You all a sudden we're talking about hikes on on the table. So, it's just funny cuz the the media just went nuts this week and it was almost like it it's almost like they were trying to over sensationalize just make it like a drama. It was almost like I was I was watching like a like a trailer for like a you know dramatic movie or something like that, right? Just really to kind of get you get the reader kind of in engaged and enthralled and that there's this big [ __ ] thing going on between all these Fed officials and it's so tough and what are they going to do?
What are they going to do? I just think the whole thing is pretty funny.
>> I think it was aimed at reversing the sentiment that has been building for six to eight months where the Fed has dropped its promotion of lowering rates where it where you know do you I mean if you remember after this last summer they started you know we they started to recognize that inflation is stickier than it should be. So they rate cuts that were planned started to lose support around the fall and that's been the case ever since. So that's and and that's why we've seen bond yields rise.
So um can you see the bond yields?
>> It's a lot of data. What do you what do you want us to focus on?
>> Okay. Right. So just here >> these are the US yields over six months.
Right. So since March, we're up almost 1%.
On the 10-year, you know, how many basis points is this on the 5-year from 3.6 to 4.3? So 60 basis points. And I think that's about the same 50 or 60 basis points along all of these except for the the one that the Fed controls is the three-month T bill yield. And that um that 30-year yield uh it hit the highest it broke 5.18% and the highest since 2007.
>> Yeah. Here's the longer term chart. So you see like a you know when they started hiking rates it peaked in 23 right here but then it fell and then in the last I guess year and a half it's been just ticking back up now and especially in the last six months. So, like you say, there's a new high here.
Far back do we have to go?
>> 2007.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. So, >> the Japanese yields, too, right? They they were some some big movers. They set actual all-time highs, the 40.
>> Well, look at look at this. This is the Japanese yield, right? When this is the result of their negative interest rate policy. When they when they did this, it boosted all the markets. bit of a yen carry trade uh was put on, you know, because it was you had yields at 0% or negative 25% if you could borrow in Japan. It's not like um the yen car I I think the yen carry is overrated. I think a lot of people think a lot a lot more money is in that trade than there actually is. But um but it's still it's still a thing. And look at this. I mean, this is the 10-year uh Japanese government bond, the JGP.
>> I don't When was the last time they were at 2.75?
>> 1996.
>> I mean, there Yeah, it doesn't even go back on this chart. Only goes back to 2005 on this chart. 1996. Eh, >> yeah, that's the headline I got. Yeah.
>> So, so trouble is brewing and it's just a matter of of the right catalyst, I believe.
Well, it's just, you know, I think that the thing that's really kind of getting me with all this information is, you know, rewind a year ago, rewind two years ago and, you know, when we're dumbfounded to looking at these stock markets making record highs, you know, when they shouldn't be, you know, it was it was very much based on the Fed telegraphing that they were going to cut rates. So, so anytime there was this idea that the rates were going to be cut, the markets would move up. You know, now it's almost like that kind of thinking about rates does not matter because now we're in a situation where the expectations are that the rates are going to be raised, the cuts are off the table and yet the markets are surging even higher. And it's almost like they don't care about rates anymore.
>> But that's what this debate was about Worsh was about this week in my opinion is to reverse that tide of sentiment.
>> Yeah.
>> Right.
>> Yeah.
>> And uh so that might have supported the markets a little bit this week as well >> possibly. you know, if you got people thinking, you know, you made so much noise about it, even though you didn't say that Wars is going to submit or the Fed is going to submit to the Fed uh to the the political powers that ought not be, even if you said that, if you concluded that they made so much noise about it, it's going to enter into some people's minds that, oh yeah, the Fed is probably going to just cut rates as Trump wants, you know. Uh but so so going back to the the the Dow's performance here, I want to share uh this screen with you. I posted this on uh my Twitter account. Do you see it?
Right. This is the um this is the Dow versus the Dow Jones World Index. And I made the comment that uh Trump keeps pointing to the Dow's performance, but the Dow has actually been a a low ranking performer on the global scale for the last year or so, ever since he got this is I guess this goes back to his inauguration in early 2025. So, as soon as he came in, the Dow started to underperform the global averages. Y >> and so now this is not true of the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ has has been a a top performer. It's not performed as well as Turkey or Argentina uh or anywhere else where I guess they have better presidents. But um but in any case, I think this this graph tells a very interesting story. I you know I mean you know my opinion on on the Marcus here. We've got increasingly the averages are just so increasingly dominated by the um >> just a few select stocks >> the top 10.
>> Yeah. No, the mainstream calling this out. The mainstream news is calling this out.
>> Anybody who tries to own a mutual fund or passive ETF, they can't avoid owning the tech stocks. Here's an irony is that, you know, um, profit margins have been rising pretty sharply since 2008.
You remember the chart that I showed in the newsletter?
>> But that puzzled me when I first ran across it. It puzzled me for a while. I was like, how come profit margins are just keep rising? And, you know, I I thought about it. I did a little bit more research. You know, obvious the the answer is just obvious. It's really actually quite obvious is that the economy has undergone some real big changes in the last 20 years. And one of these changes is the one that Trump is trying to reverse is a lot of manufacturing and a lot of heavy capital intensive industries have moved offshore.
>> Right?
>> And the reason they've moved offshore is because it's not profitable to operate in the US. There's too many regulatory hoops that you have to jump over. The unions have to protect labor. It's all because of protectionist policies of the past. And so that's why it's interesting that Trump just adds protectionist policies even though that's one of the reasons that the the manufacturing and uh capital intensive businesses have become less profitable. But so the increasing profit margins is due mainly to the transformation of the economy from a from this manufacturing base to a more technological economy. finan finance and technology and the you know including platform companies and so and whatnot. So I don't know if that's good or bad. A lot of people will have an opinion about that but to me the market is the market and it to me it's if if that's where profit margins are and that's where profit seeking entrepreneurs are aiming then they're satisfying consumer wants to some extent or another. It's to me that's the the irony is that Trump wants to reverse that. So he wants to onshore all these unprofitable operations and yet you know he wouldn't assume that that's going to undermine the stock market's performance. No, >> but it would because the stock market's performance is directly tied to this transformation that has followed the where where where profit margins are expanding and right and so with this this massive domination of of tech companies of the averages and the almost impossibility of investors to avoid owning tech stocks if you want to own stocks. you know that that's troublesome even though you could say that yeah sure the AI is is is delivered a productivity miracle of some sort they have it has I mean it's not it's still not where it should be but the internet wasn't where it should be in the late '9s either but it still delivered the productivity shock to the system and it'll still take time to make full use of the AI but still like you want you know the the the The tech the the critics will say well the only reason the tech companies are making money is because the uh the spend the investment in data centers by the hyperscalers is what they call them.
>> Mhm.
>> The the spending by them has increased the profits of all the other companies that are selling the equipment to the data center buildout. But those companies, those hyperscalers are among the leading earnings generators as well.
So they're making money even though they're maybe not on the data centers on the but they're making money in the in the development of the cloud and other areas of the internet, they're still making money. And I think that we underestimated that. I think that that's that's that's definitely a real factor behind why the stock markets keep making new highs. But I think um but I think definitely the concentration or the of the top 10, the low breadth of the advance in general, the monetary backdrop, the geopolitical risks, all that other stuff is not priced in. So the market is has some justification for what it's doing, but I think it's not properly pricing in all the risks and the um uh the liquidity uh situation is definitely a factor that's going to tip the scales sooner or later. It's just we need the we need to see a catalyst of some kind. And I think I think we're going to need to see it in the tech sector. I don't know if we're going to I don't I think that it seems like the market is pretty much committed to buying every dip that's caused by geopolitical concerns or >> well especially after this last like I mean just looking at the that Vshape in the charts right from the last dip you know.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> Yeah. If it dips again I I you know everyone's going to be like got to get in. I don't want to mix and miss the next rally.
>> Yeah. which which is getting to the point of irrational exuberance when people start buying stocks just because they're going up.
>> Yeah.
>> So, you know, that's that's the bubble part. We have the unound boom which is the the the incentives behind the overspend on data centers and we have we're seeing the bubble in terms of the psychology of investors. So, but we're not seeing the the monetary support.
This week's noise about what's going on at the Fed I think has is more important than than maybe a lot of people would attribute.
>> Yeah, you might be right. You might be right. I don't know if they raise rates though. Can't see that being good.
>> No. No. If they if there's any, you know, there right now, you're right.
There. So far, they're just hinting at the possibility that all the rate cuts that were planned are probably off the table. They're not saying that for sure, right? Are they?
>> No, they're still they're still leaving ambiguity and more so in the states, too. What I'm finding is that the rhetoric coming out of like the ECB, for example, is leaning toward rate hikes.
They're still trying to be a little bit, you know, we don't know. We got to wait and see, data dependent kind of thing.
But the officials are, you know, some of them were like, we're going to need to be hiking where I feel like the the rhetoric and, you know, at the last FOMC meeting minutes, there's definitely, you know, people at the Fed that are not as hawkish. This whole thing reminds me of the 1987 stock market crash. And the reason I say that is because the crash was precipitated by two factors that I remember. They blamed it on program trading back then. And that and I think because of that crash, they created the plunge protection team, the PPT, the shadow banking committee that now moni they blame they they they were they created this the fiction that the market system is just unstable. is inherently unstable and all this program trading that came in in 87 I mean that was like what 40 years ago I mean compared to the program trading that exists today that that scale in ' 80s in the early 80s was nothing and but so the real causes in my opinion besides the fact that going into that you had three actually three three causes the bond market was falling apart as it is now >> yeah one yeah >> and the bond market was for about almost a year ahead of the 87 crash. It was just diving and I think it was down 25 30 or 40% the the 10 year the price the value of the 10ear bonds that >> price. Yeah. And um that was going on and then there was a new Fed chairman coming in Alan Greenspan.
>> Yeah.
>> Right. And then Alan Greenspan said a few and people assumed at that time that Alan Greenspan was a gold bug because he hung with uh an Rand and crowd and the objectivists and um he wrote the uh that famous essay that he sort of copied Span uh did a take on that where uh for in Ran in an Ran's book he contributed an essay to to the book uh where he wrote where he wrote that the um that the welfare state was um that the gold the purpose of the gold standard was to shackle the welfare state and and so forth. But but he but there was a small spin in that article where he painted central banking as becoming sophisticated now.
>> Yeah. Sophisticated. We have the tools.
>> Right. So people were expecting him to be a gold bug when he was announced as as Fed chairman. hawkish, >> right? So, that was another factor.
>> Then he mentioned the dollar when he shouldn't have. You know, these days maybe it's not such a big deal for the Fed to mention the dollar, but in the last century it was taboo. The Fed would never mention the dollar. It was the Treasury's job to talk about the dollar.
>> Okay?
>> And so, but he but in being a noob to central banking, he mentioned the dollar when he shouldn't have. And the central banks were in the same position back then. And the European, it wasn't the ECB back then. I believe it was the Bundes Bank or one of the European, I think it was the Bundes Bank decided to raise interest rates, you know. Um, so we're in a similar predicament where the ECB today is thinking we got to raise interest rates, but if they do, they're going to undermine the dollar and they're going to undermine the global boom and they're going to put into people's minds that the possibility that the US is going to raise interest rates.
At the same time, we have a new chairman of the Fed >> and we have a bond market that's falling apart. So, it's like 1987 all over again to me.
>> Yeah. Seems like central bankers are you're getting really painted in that corner more so now than ever with especially with inflation still going.
>> Yeah. And you know and this is the thing like I mean if if we had sound money so no central banks >> and we were on a gold some sort of it doesn't have to be a gold standard. If gold was money that's the best way to say it. I don't like the idea of a a statist standard on on anything. But if gold were if if if we had a sound money, if the markets operated off of sound money and there was no central bank to intervene in money supply or interest rates.
>> Yes.
>> Okay. If that was the case and you had a massive increase in the oil price like we did today, other commodity prices would fall.
>> Yes. It would bounce out, >> right? And well, >> it would be like the market signal would be to produce less of the other stuff and produce more oil. So it would fix the problem a lot quicker because the incentives would be so much more acute.
>> Yes. So but in today's world in the oil the rising oil price with central banking being what it is all the other prices follow right maybe to a lesser extent or whatever but in any case it slows down that fixing process right it slows down the what is the saying higher prices in commodities higher prices are the the cure for lower prices or something like that whatever it is and vice versa low prices are the cure for low prices it's a bit of a what's the word I'm looking for >> I don't know >> tautological it's a bit of a tautology let's say but but so yeah I just wanted to point that out because >> we don't live in that in a world of sound money we live in a world where um >> market signals are all distorted right they're all distorted >> and where and where sorry to interrupt you but where the price should like so you know whereas the markets would settle fix the problem the imbalance automatically we look to the central banks to fix the problem. And so, but the central banks when they try to fix that problem, they're just going to create more instability. So, I I don't know. I hope Say again >> the interventionist spiral or something like that. I think there's a >> Yeah, it's it's just ongoing. It's like lying, you know. Um >> Yes. The more lies you tell, the more lies you have to tell. That's just the way it goes.
>> So, let's let's wrap it up, guys. It's um uh 40 minutes and with respect to your time in ours, we'll see you next week.
>> Yeah. Till next week, we'll see you guys.
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