Small-cap defense technology stocks (under $10 billion market cap) are highly volatile and susceptible to sentiment-driven price swings, making them suitable for ETF exposure rather than individual stock investment; investors should trim positions when stocks become extended (30%+ above moving averages) to lock in profits and position themselves to buy back in during corrections, as these companies often burn cash and lack the margin of safety provided by established fundamentals.
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CAN DRONE STOCKS KEEP RISING, IS THIS A REAL OPPORTUNITY?? + BUY THE DIP ON ZS ??Added:
I wanted to start with Jedi. I wrote a piece and I'll just share the I'll share the >> the piece here real quick.
>> Um >> yeah, you share that information in the Discord, right?
>> Yeah, this this art well maybe not the article but just the information I repackaged the information I put in the Discord in this article for people that maybe aren't in the Discord but follow my work.
>> Okay. Okay.
>> So, you know, Jedi the Defiance drone and modern warfare ETF. Uh just going to read that tracks a market cap weighted index of companies focused on uh military capabilities spanning drones, AI, defense technology, space weaponry, military, robotics, and cyber security.
It is all of the buzzwords uh for right now. So I I've been building a position since March, and I wrote this article just a couple days ago when it opened up 7% from 36. Right now it's at 42.83, up another 12.7%.
And I told people, uh, right here, let the flyers fly. I just didn't feel like it was the right time to trim. It felt like we have the green lantern for stupid. This stuff can really, really run. These companies aren't necessarily pre- revenue, but they are certainly pre-market cap. Most of them are less than $10 billion in size, so they can get whipped around. Uh, but, you know, if you'd like to take a whole look, the whole article is, uh, you know, at gorillawglass.com.
It's one of the first articles you can see.
>> Uh, but I wanted to start with it today because I'm just going to show people.
We'll just do it in real time.
>> This is uh this is part of my um this is my Roth IRA account that I have in Robin Hood.
>> Here's the position here. You can see it's up 56% right now. I This is just such a hyperbolic candle.
>> Smarts, right? you said.
>> Yeah, I may have held it in my I can't check here. I don't I don't know to check here. Um I've been building the position in other portfolios since March. Uh but my basis is Oh, that's right. Robin doesn't show you basis information. Whatever point is I'm up 56.68%.
I kind of like it. I still want to be here.
>> Fantastic. So, we're actually going to Congress, bro.
>> We're going to go ahead and sell 30 of the shares right now. So, the reason I'm going to sell 30 >> Mhm. is because I feel as though this has gone a little bit extreme.
>> I mean, I want to >> it's going probabolic. Yeah. Take a look.
>> Yeah. And but here's the thing. I really want to stay in the overall theme. This is such a great place to be right now.
Everyone's worried about AI disruption.
These are hard assets. It's not going to be displaced by AI.
We now know through the lived experience of Iran and the Ukraine.
>> Oh, let me ask is Palanteer inside this ETF?
>> Yes. Yeah, I I I thought it it was it would be included, right, in the ETF.
>> I believe it is. I believe Palanteer is.
If it isn't, I'm mistaking it for the ITA, but we can look it up real quick.
But I just want to lay out the >> the reason I want to stay with it and why I'm not just dumping the entire thing. Not not only because it's the IRA, just for anyone that's been holding it or trading this with me.
>> So, first of all, hard asset. You're not going to get displaced by a second, the supply demand imbalance is insane. We now know through the lived experience of Iran and the Ukraine that this is how we're going to do war.
>> We're going to be using a lot of drones, a lot of cheap drones, a lot of different things, a lot of robotics, etc. And the traditional defense companies don't quite have the exposure that these young defense companies do, which actually brings you to the third point. These are all small, I mean, I called them pre-market cap earlier. This is a rate cut play. If we start talking about rate cuts, oil comes off the boil, this war dial, you know, actually dies down, these names will benefit net net from lower interest rates, uh, that that pretty much lays out the three-pronged thesis, or at least the most important bits of it. So, I still want to be here long term, but we're going to sell 30.
We're going to make about $1,300 on the trade, which is my basis.
So, from here on out, the rest of this position is just house money. My bet here >> you have red wire, intuitive machines, andas. We they traded andas today >> um in the patron in Spanish. Um Unusual, Unusual Machines, Rocket Lab, Arcade Aviation, C3I, Black Sky Technology, Redcat, Space Mobile. I mean, I guess that most of these companies are um inceneration money machines, I guess.
Right. So, >> right. Right. Right. Right. So, I mean, listen, again, not pre-revenue, but certainly pre-earnings, a lot of them.
>> I'm just doing that. Normally, what I do is I wait until a position doubles before I just go ahead and, you know, take house money. But I feel as though these stocks might be pricing in growth that is has a really I don't want to say unlikely but it is unlikely to materialize before the sentiment surrounding these stocks dies down.
So, while I believe long-term, I think right now at 4267 on the Jedi ETF that I will have an opportunity to buy it lower than that if I want to, but until then, I'm just going to keep my profits as a position and let them ride.
So, now I don't need to worry. So, if we wake up in the next couple of days, something goes wrong and it's down 20%, I'm not panicking. I'm like, "Yeah, no, it's house money. We're going to keep going." And if it goes back down into the the prior trading range, I I have the capital and I have the uh I have the capital and the mindset of being, all right, time to buy it back down. Time to buy it lower. We, you know, we bought low, we sold high. That's how you do it.
>> Yeah, this ETF is 30% pretty much off or above the 20-day moving arrows pre-extended. But um you cannot you cannot invest. So the the business risk is too high here. So I agree with you.
Um, if you wanted to have some exposure to this theme, I guess or new industry maybe, if you will, I >> you should be you should be doing it via the ETF because the business risk. So, who knows?
>> So, who who who's going who's going to be a winner here, bro? It's impossible to determine that now. Do you see what I'm saying? Because all of these companies must be must be burning money.
And uh yeah, so if you wanted to have so your your approach is 100% right. if you wanted to have some exposure to this new industry, I guess, um, you should be doing it via the ETF. So, it's pretty extended here. And you're trimming a little bit here live, right? So, >> I mean, I I just I basically, for those that were like paying attention, I I trimmed >> Okay.
>> Uh, 75% of the position. So, the only money that's left is profit.
>> So, if this thing crashes, >> Yeah.
>> I don't care. I I I'm putting myself in the position to where it's a really big Yeah, it's a big correction.
>> I have the money to buy it lower when it comes into a price that I think is more appropriate. But I I do want to be fair about it. The market could remain irrational for much longer than you and I could predict. I I certainly couldn't have predicted that I'd be seeing Jedi at 42. that was not in the cards when I bought it in the mid20s.
>> In some areas of the markets, we can say that we are dealing with a clown market, but this this situation can keep going for longer than >> um you and I can um you know um forecast. Let's just let's just put it that way, right?
>> So, yeah, this this this ETF is likely coming in eventually. I don't know, maybe a retest of the 5day moving average. Go figure, bro. So the the 5D and we're talking about an ETF. So this is the 5day moving average is signaling as of now 37 bucks. The ETF is trading at $42. So the uh the 5D the 5D MA will eventually catch up or you know uh Jedi would be paying a visit down to the 5DMA and you would be adding more to it right to this.
>> I don't know if I would do it so I don't know if I'd do it that quickly.
>> I did just sell a bunch. I think I'd let it run. This to me is similar to what I did with the quantum stocks. I thought the quantum stocks when we talked about them last year got way out of hand. So, I actually ended up selling all of it. I just wasn't interested in staying. That doesn't mean that I won't eventually go back and buy more. It's just I don't feel as though the opportunity is compelling in Quantum the way that it was in other places. And I also think that the profitability of companies in the Jedi ETF is much closer to today than the profitability in Quantum. But I guess the point I'm saying is I might not add to the Jedi ETF for a very long time.
And who knows, maybe I do end up buying it back at, you know, in the mid30s higher than my initial purchase. But I just feel as though when you have these small cap companies go absolutely hyperbolic and there's no margin of safety provided by the fundamentals, it makes sense to take some off the table, reward yourself and just put yourself in the mind space to not panic when there's a correction and instead be opportunistic >> 100%. Do you want to introduce the the podcast?
>> No, I think that's great. I just wanted to get through that first. So >> good job, bro. Very good job. Awesome.
Thank you. Congrats. Thank you. Well, congrats to you. I see that you guys have been I mean, you mentioned it in the Discord. You guys have been trading.
>> Yeah, we got a news call alert today on Andas um ODS and we they traded the ticker. The stock exploded through the upside. So, it was a good trade. I guess it was a very good trade actually.
>> Not not I guess it certainly was. And with that, a little bit of victories here. Let's welcome you in to episode 45 of Charts and Checks. Almost a year old, not quite out of diapers yet. Then again, I don't know. You You probably know more about kids than me. I'll get there eventually. Uh, but here with me as always, Alvaro Praer of the Bilingual Stock Market Channel and I, myself, Don Foyani, the gorilla with glasses. We are happy to have you guys here on May the 28th at 2:40 p.m. Eastern. Alvo, how are you doing today?
>> I am doing fantastic. I was saying that the trade was good I guess ons because we ended up leaving you know leaving money on the table. Um because these uh drone stocks have been flying today >> and and we got news but we we will not get in a political discussion that the government that the that the administration might be taking some might be taking a stake in most of these companies. I think personally that this is a horrible idea but again that's a topic for for another >> occasion for a different correct but let me show you um let me show you so this is andas by the way >> yeah let's let's chart I just looked at a chart there yeah >> yeah so look $50 million in revenue um this is I guess at last quarter of last year no Q1 of 2026 and this company did I mean they actually made a profit bro of $361 million I guess that this was a special contract that they were awarded.
>> Something special. That looks like an >> Yeah, this was something special. No doubt about it. Right. Um, let me take a look at the financial structure of the company. $1.4 billion in cash and we're looking at a long-term debt of $3 million. So, this company is likely staying around for quite some time.
>> And of course, this is not investment advice, right? But I mean, at least um zero debt, 1.4 4 billion in cash.
>> Um they they are actually making they are actually yeah I mean generating revenue which is I mean look they have been making revenue um during the at least um last year >> these companies yeah they're not pre-revenue these companies make money absolutely >> yeah 100%. and and of course and and we are we are not we're not getting here in a political discussion but obviously the war in Iran and in Ukraine is showing us that the that the that that that a war at present is being [ __ ] in a very different way relative to the past. So you're utilizing like, you know, drones and other kind of weapons, right? And not >> not just drones, but like really cheap drones like, you know, right now >> $50,000 drones, which which >> which are the ones Iran is utilizing.
Yeah.
>> Right. And what's crazy is that if you're countries in the Middle East, >> Yeah. I'm like, I guess, sorry, the point I'm trying to make is if you're a US ally and you're using Loheed Martin tomahawks, those are hundreds of thousands of dollars. It's a mismatch.
like you do need to create a different sort of defense product to shoot these small drones out of the sky if you're going to keep doing it. It's uh we're reshaping warfare as we know it.
>> Yeah. Look, this is Redwire Corporation.
I don't know if they if they have to do with drones as well, do they?
>> So, this one's a little bit different.
These guys have contracts with SpaceX and by >> Yeah, this looks like a more mature company, right? Look, >> I don't know much about Redwire except that they have existing relationships with SpaceX and Blue Origin, which I know may be new to some people's ears, but they are I mean they're they're I mean SpaceX is 20 some years old, isn't it?
>> How old SpaceX now?
>> Uh what what's that?
>> How old is SpaceX now?
>> How old?
>> How old? How many years has SpaceX been business?
>> I have no idea, bro. Like six, I don't know, 10 years. They have been around for quite some time. Oh, by the way, the IPO is um is on the 12th, June 12th. So, it is it is just around the corner.
Yeah, it's >> I guess SpaceX was founded in 20 or sorry, 2002. SpaceX is 24 years old.
>> Yeah. Still burning money.
>> Yeah. So, yeah. I mean, Red Wire has been working with them for a while. Same with Blue Origin. So, I mean Red Wire is slightly different. It's it's definitely more space and propellant and less drone and other stuff, but Yeah.
>> Yeah. So they are burning money left and right. $78 million >> um on negative net income on its last reported quarter. Um I mean the company has been making revenue at least I mean revenue has been act has been arguably um growing uh almost um a record revenue on its last reported quarter $96 million. They are burning money. Let me take a look at the cash position. So, $145 million in cash and we have a long-term debt of 80 $83 million. So, I mean, yeah. So, here's the situation. Um, most of these companies until they can uh make a profit on a consistent basis, they will be diluting their shareholders because they need to raise capital and they are burning money, right? I mean that that wasn't the case of necessarily but we you can tell because of the >> rise and net income that that something special happens over there.
>> So um I guess that you're diluting take a look at the dilution. It's a diluting >> Oh wow that's impressive >> machine. Yeah of course. So this is a risk you know I mean you're you're investing in a pretty much speculative company. So >> well let's be more let's be more um let's be even broader. These companies are they have market caps below 10 billion. they they are going to get whipped around with sentiment. So if you are choosing to invest in these and I mean invest in these then you need to be aware of the fact that your volatility is going to be significantly higher and you can prepare for that in one of two ways. You can either size your position a little bit smaller or you can dollar cost average over a longer period of time. Uh you know obviously the opportunity looked better a couple of weeks ago than it does today.
So, I don't know if I would chase here, but it's it's difficult. Like, these are very small companies. They do get whipped around. They they they're flash in the pans and they go away. And when they go away, they go away quickly.
>> Wow. Rocket Lab. $86 billion in market cap, brother. This is the company.
>> Yeah. Rocket Lab. Can you see it? I >> Yeah, know I see. What do they do? I'm not >> I know. This is another um stock inside the Jedi ETF.
>> Oh, funny. I thought >> I mean something rocket related, I guess. I mean, take a look at >> Never mind. I mean, this this is this company is bigger than the ones that I've been looking at in the Jedi ETF. I didn't realize this was in here.
>> Yeah, take a look at the revenue growth.
I mean, yep, >> very solid, right? 63% on revenue growth on a year-over-year basis. Do they make a profit? No, of course not. Yeah. $45 million um on negative net income um for Q1 of this year. And let me take a look at the financial structure. So we have a cash position of $1.3 billion and long-term debt is $ 38 million. So this is a very comfortable um cash position, but I guess that of course they got to be diluting. Let me see. Um >> yeah, I mean I don't know. I just feel like the price in these stocks is not >> they are diluting big time. Take a look.
But I guess I guess for me the bottom line is the price the price action we've seen in these stocks over the last two weeks is not indicative of any change in the fundamentals. It's it's a lot of hope. It's a lot of optimism. It's a lot I mean that's what it is. It's a lot of we're going to try to price in the future today and I don't know if you're going to see progress towards that future before the sentiment wears off.
>> Yeah. I mean, I I I would never invest in a company that isn't making that that isn't profitable yet, but I think that the war in Iran is clearly showing us that the way that wars will be managed in the future changed forever. So, in my opinion, potentially um some of these companies might be >> successful companies in the future, right? Because I >> I don't know what is going to happen later on down the road, Danny, with the Lakit Marines of the world and the Rathians of the world. I mean I mean we'll as a country, right? We we will still uh we will still need that kind of weapons. But >> um wow this year I mean the everyone thought that Iran was going to be um was going to be crushed um very quickly and and and Iran it Iran clearly showed us >> that the I don't know maybe that the modern warfare um we require more new weapons than the regular weapons that we thought >> we would have needed you know in order to fight a war. So I I guess that some of these companies might do winners but again you you can which one will be will a winner right? So >> of course but it's the same as Russia Ukraine. People thought the Ukraine would get absolutely obliterated.
>> Correct.
>> The Russians have been at it now for four or five years and that did lead to a very nice >> sorry four years that did lead to a nice bump in the defense manufacturers of that time but that bloom did fade. Now, they've recovered since then, but I I just I'm just trying to remind people that when you look at this stuff, the sentiment here might be a lot more cyclical than the businesses.
Correct. Correct. This is a Space Mobile and this one looks ugly. H take a look.
Little to none revenue, $14 million, and they are burning money. Jesus Christ.
Take a look at this. So, we have a negative net income of $191 million.
So that implies that we have a negative profit margin of 1,693%.
So um yeah, I am not I am not invested in Space Mobile for sure. But yeah, I I think that the right approach is is the one that you that you executed, bro. So just buying the ETF and yeah, the ETF will end up um rewarding the companies that do >> it is it is market cap weighted. So you do get defense uh not defense you you you do get some >> the wieners >> positive momentum. Yes, thank you. Yeah, that one.
>> Correct. Correct. Okay, awesome.
>> What do you want to talk about next? I know we have a handful of stocks we want to chat about. Uh where do you want to go?
>> Um I was thinking about I I wanted to ask you because you closed your position on United Health recently, right?
>> Sure. Sure. Recent. Yeah.
>> Yeah. Uh so not a good year in general terms for the sector healthcare and um so year to date um healthcare is down bro um 2% as a as a sector right >> um any thoughts on unh um taking into account that this is the largest >> insurance company in the world >> would you be into I mean the technical sure this is starting it'll look more constructive so I was wondering if you were kind of interested in doing something over there.
The stock is way off the lows.
>> Let me pull up the charts here.
>> So often times, Danny, we tell the guys here in the podcast like, "Hey, stay away from downtrends." But what about you? It is no longer in a downtrend.
>> It's exa Exactly. Right. I would say it's no longer in a downtrend. So, let's take a look. This is a a multi-year. I think it's five years here. Yeah, five years here. You're you're no longer Yeah, you're still technically in a downtrend, but you've been going sideways or trading up and down pretty volatily between 250 and 400. It isn't like what happened when you were at 600 and went all the way down to, you know, below 250. Like it you're you're the downtrend's kind of shifting. I feel like if you can get above 400, that's a really meaningful number. That's where I would look to re-enter the position in a real way because if you start refilling this gap back to 450, then I think you're attracting a lot of the old shareholders back into the name and maybe some new shareholders as well, like the momentum ones that really needed more, really needed to see more.
Uh what's the other one? So, this is the sixmon that I like with the five.
>> I bet it's a good looking.
>> Yeah. And it's defending 380 really, really well.
The another way to look at it is with this one, I'll make it a little bit longer. Make it about a year.
You found um the tops when they reported two quarters ago at 375 and you you just you just tapped it and buyers came in.
That's that's really reassuring to me.
So, if you're trying to add your position, I would maybe do so with retests of that 375.
But to me, it's still guilty until proven innocent until you really sustain some price action above 400. That's where I would draw my line. Like, I just want to be out of this. I want to be out of this horrendous How long has it been here? Like this May to now. So, it's it's been in this in this trading range below 390 and above 250 for a year. If we can break out of this and we can show that there are some new shareholders in here that are willing to take a shot, I'm more than happy to get involved again, but I'm I'm not going to buy this right before a break a false breakout and then get slammed back down. I I need to see it.
>> Correct. Um so the commercial execution of the company um I mean we we so we haven't seen a noticeable improvement. I mean the company is still growing. um they did $111 million on Q1 of this year and um net income ended up going up significantly up to $6.2 billion.
Um so the the thing with with UNH um they have a branch of the business Danny that has to do with um with preventive um health and I don't I don't remember the name of the of that unit of UNH and that is the segment of the business that is that has been let's say creating the largest amount of u profits during the last um say five or six years. So the markets are are a bit concerned about that. But um this is a company inside the health uh the healthcare um sector that take a look at the multiples that is trading at. I mean this is it is trading at 20 times forward earnings.
>> Yeah, I can see. Hold on.
>> I'm I'm listening.
>> Okay.
>> What's up? You want Okay.
>> Sorry. He's been he's been clawing at the door for Um, if you take a look at the forward P race of UNH 21, it doesn't sound like a like a bargain, you know, um, trading at 21 times forward earnings >> pretty much. I mean, two points below the the multiple of the S&P 500, but take a look at the price of sales, brother. It's below one.
So, >> that's interesting.
Yeah, the revenue that this company makes in one year is larger than the total market capitalization of United Health. And check this out. Take a look at the haircut that the market cap of UNH got guys.
>> How interesting.
>> Yeah. From $539 billion down to $346 billion. If you take a look at the estimates of the analysts um at the forecast of the analysts, so you have 16 um strong buy categories, six buy categories, five hold categories, and zero cells. So, um, the most bullish analysts consider that UNH could be almost a $500 stock 12 months out.
>> Neutral ones 400 bucks, which is the level that you were pointing out. And the bearish ones, $287.
And if we take a look at the revenue growth expectations, um, I mean, it remains stable.
Uh, 2028, 6%, 5% for 2029, 6% for 2030.
So um >> yeah yeah >> I I think that there could be a potential turnaround story here and if the segment of preventive healthcare that I was telling you starts to show some improvement and if the technicals validate um what I what we are discussing here so say that UNH can consolidate above $400 I think that this stock might be worth giving giving it a shot. H >> but we we'll still need to wait on we still need to wait until the the technicals confirm >> um that maybe you know buyers are in control of the stock.
>> But um it's pretty interesting seeing this company with a price to sales below one.
I mean this is a company that is expected to be able to grow revenue at six plus percent in the upcoming you know four or five years. So this is I think this is a stock that that could be in the interesting category. Let's just put it that way. I I almost like it better as a trade or a hedge than I do an investment.
And what I mean by that is when you have any stock that's tangentially related to building a data center, fueling AI, etc., it's growing at such an insane rate that it doesn't really leave a lot of additional capital to invest like in the world towards UNH. We don't really have the risk of a recession right now.
So, I mean, I don't think that's being priced into the stock. So you could maybe see it as a hedge, like a recession hedge. If if we start getting if we start pricing in lower growth expectations, then companies in the health care sector are going to benefit, it's no longer going to be down 2% year to date, the whole sector and UNH is going to be leading them higher almost assuredly.
But in a in in today's environment where we're constantly trying to figure out uh you know where these >> yeah we are in a we are in a riskoff environment for sure right so that that is not the most suitable environment for a for a stock for >> I mean like you need you just you you need to have like I don't know like I'd feel better about buying this if we're like oh you know there's there's an elevated chance of recession or I could see I could see a world where we no longer care about where capex dollars are going it it it just doesn't have the juice or the narrative to get capital flows to go into it. And that is meaningful. Like I kind of chop it up when I'm talking with friends and and uh and just anyone about the stock market, people that really kind of, you know, are interested and get into it. It it kind of comes down to three things. We we talk about the fundamentals, which you laid out really well. You know, maybe that's 30% of it. We talk about the valuations kind of, you know, where things are historically. That's another 30%. And the other 30% is kind of just, you know, the sentiment, the flows, where's the money going, how do people feel about it. It it's it's can be very ethereal. And right now, you don't really have two of those things. Like the fundamentals aren't that compelling.
Uh the valuation is and the story it's, you know, I don't know. So, >> it isn't a sexy story. It isn't a sexy story. with so with so much else going on.
>> What is sexy now is hardware and artificial intelligence. So of course yeah we >> right >> I feel like if you want to go ahead go ahead.
>> Yeah. Speaking of um nonsexy stories >> in artificial intelligence um what do you think about the collapse of zilcaler?
>> This was >> how interesting >> very impressive to to see you know like the stock so yesterday the stock had it had had its worst day ever.
And if and if you if you look at the earnings report, >> it was a good report. And mind you, the stock was already down 50%.
>> Before the report came out. So um since you are since you know the cyber security space um better than I at least what what are your thoughts on this?
>> I think I think you we we talked about it a little bit in passing in Discord and maybe it was WhatsApp or whatever. I don't disagree with anything that we've all kind of laid out. the capex number disrupt the cash flow story and that kind of scared shareholders.
I don't >> uh do you know why they increased their capex uh forecast?
>> No.
>> Because of the price of hardward.
>> Oh okay. Yeah. See that's funny.
>> So that could be another inflation component that could be hitting the markets later on down the road. But that's a a discussion for a different day. Yeah. Go ahead, bro. Sir.
>> Sure. Sure. I I feel like, you know, 20some percent it was in one day is a bit of an overshoot. I think you get paid to buy this thing and wait and hold it, but I I have so I have enough money in PaloAlto and Crowdstrike that I'm not really interested in picking up a third cyber security name.
>> Good. Uh, and if I were to pick up a third at this point, it would be Fortnet, which is the one that actually broke the mold and showed us that there is going to be a real business relationship between data centers, AI workloads, and these cyber security giants. It pretty much spat in the face of all the people that said, "Oh, well, companies are just going to start developing their own cyber security."
It's like, oh, if that were true, then why was why is Nvidia paying Fortnite, you know, millions, if not billions of dollars to do it for him?
>> The other day, I listen to a guy I listened to a guy, I think it was in Bloomberg, like I don't know where what people are talking about, OpenAI works with Palo Alto and Crowd Strike, >> right? If OpenAI is utilizing those services, so if OpenAI itself >> is hiding or has been working with Palo Alto, right?
So >> here here here is here's sorry, you know, out of the left field going to be disrupting Crowd Strike and Palo Alto utilizing their resources of open. Yeah, it's just insane.
>> I mean, it could happen later on down the road, but not now. at present that is that is in risk.
>> Well, here's the thing like let's just let's talk about it from the software debate a little bit wider.
>> Let me ask you a question quickly Daniel. Okay. Sorry. Okay. Take a look at the revenue growth of this company.
>> Say that you weren't a market an active market participant which is which is your case because we are in touch of course >> very much on a daily basis in the disc.
Okay. Say that you were not an active market participant >> and say that I told you hey take a look at the revenue growth of this company.
Okay. Uh, can you see the $850 million >> up there? You would say, "Okay, I can see it." Okay.
>> What What if I told you that this company with that revenue growth had after having reported earnings had its worst day ever, 32% down after having posted >> that revenue growth that you're seeing there? What What would you say, Danny? I mean, you you'd ask if one of their data centers was hit in the Gulf. Like I I mean, you know, like what was the guidance?
But then again, if you had no, it doesn't make any sense like face value.
It makes no sense.
>> It doesn't make any sense at the face value. Correct. Perfect. We agree on that. So, you were Yeah.
>> No, no, no, no. It's fine because there's not really much more to say about Zcaler. I think everyone kind of understands the the fundamentals are fantastic. I mean, they they could do a little bit better on the income side, but that's Zcaler in general.
Sorry. Did you want to say something?
>> Yeah. So, I wanted to I wanted to point out something here. Look. Yeah. So, because you're talking about I mean the net income Yeah. still negative, right?
Yeah.
>> So, um here's the deal.
>> Um when a company's burning money, which is a case of Zcaler, I mean obviously the money that they are burning has been improving significantly. What is the ning? Here it is. Look. So, they are about to become a profitable company.
So, >> there's a path there. There's a very clear path there.
>> Yeah. But you know that there is a path because take a look at the free cash flow. When a company is burning money, the first metric that turns positive before the net income does is the free cash flow. This company is generating free cash flow without any issues. It's about to turn it is about to turn or become a profitable company. It's just a matter of >> it's just a matter of when, not if.
>> It's no surprise that the free cash flow is up and to the right the same way that the net income is up and to the right.
It's just for right now they're on the other side of the x- axis.
>> Correct. So we have if you take a look at the financial structure of the company three sorry Danny $3.5 billion in cash long-term debt at 1.7 billion.
They are diluting. But I wouldn't argue I mean how can you argue Danny uh with the dilution which you which you and I don't like of course as investors but how can you argue with the dilution when you've when you have afterwards a very solid financial structure and when the company's about to become a profitable company take a look at the revenue growth. So we cannot argue. So >> yeah, >> diluting dilution in and of itself is impositive, Danny. But when you dilute your shareholders, but that um has a positive consequence, which is a case of Zcaler. So I I am just going to be pissed about that, you know.
>> Well, I mean I I think go back down to that real quick. The uh the dilution.
See, I I think there's there's there's little ddilution and there's capital Dilution. This that it's Yeah, it's there, but it's not crazy. No, it controlled it. It's I would say it's contained. I would like to see that going the other way, but for a company that's growing the way that Zcaler is growing, I can put up with what is it even is it even 5%. I mean, well, no, it wouldn't be how like I wish I could say that on a percentage basis. It's probably less than 2%. I I mean, it it's okay. It's fine. I don't know.
>> Yeah, but you will always find, you know, an institutional investor saying that they don't like the fact that the company is eluting and stuff. So the company has been diluting but um that dilution >> has been um has been positive uh in general terms for the company. Um if we take a look at the um estimates of the forecasts of the analyst. So we have 47 analysts um covering the stock >> um very strong buy categories, eight buy categories um nine hold categories and zero sell categories. So some in some some analysts are expecting Zcaler to be able to go up to $250 12 months out 194 the neutral analyst and get this D the bearish ones >> expect Zcaler it will be 13 bucks above the current price years. So this was an overshoot. It was an overshoot >> I think so. I think so.
>> More likely than I mean I I we never speak in absolute terms. This looks like an overshoot. So, if it speaks like an overshoot and walks like an overshoot, more likely than not, it will end up being um an >> I think I think an I think a nice way to put it would be I I can't tell you what direction the next 10% is going to be, but I think the next 50% will be higher.
I just don't know how many 10% moves you get in between.
>> And I'm glad I'm glad you you are bringing that up because the technical short looks extremely ugly. Let me pull Let me pull that up.
>> Let me pull Let me pull pull that up quickly here. So, look.
>> ZS. Let's go see.
>> Um Oh, yeah. Absolutely. I mean, pretty much >> you know what it that you know what that is? That's That's a higher low. That's a higher low. Let's do it all in.
>> Oh, man. So, I mean lower low, maybe a lower high. I mean, low.
Yeah. I mean, we we we I mean, yeah, it depends on on your perspective.
>> Depends on where you're putting the lows. Yeah. No, I got you.
>> Correct. Yeah. So, um we would we we would want to see this stock recapturing the the 50-day moving average at least say say that we see Zcaler taking out 144 ST and starting it close candles above that level that could be potentially attracting buyers.
The technical SH is absolutely broken.
And I mean, yeah, I mean to actually today brand new, you know, it it put a brand new lower low.
>> All kidding aside, it's not great. Yeah, >> this could be a lower high. So, you never know. I mean, but but let me ask you, at the end of the day, um Danny, would you be a buyer of this thing here?
>> Eventually, >> I mean, say that you didn't have any exposure already to the space, to the cyber security space, >> um Palo Alto and Crowd Strike. Would you be interested in in taking a look at it?
>> If I weren't allowed to buy Crowd Strike in Palo Alto, then absolutely. Uh I think it's a really interesting company.
It's fantastic. Just for those that, you know, they know I follow Crowdstrike in Palo Alto. I think they both report in the next two weeks. Uh they've had outstanding runs. I would be ready to buy the dip there. I think that no matter what they say, there's probably going to be some give back. Uh that said though, they are still small companies.
I think CrowdStrike's still only $130 billion market cap. I think Palo Alto is like one I actually don't know off hand.
It's generally a little bit higher than Crowd Strike. Probably 161 billion. I can pull that up. Yeah, sure. Whatever.
Let's see. Let's see how close I was.
>> Uh >> yeah, >> but Crowd, but I would >> I mean, wow, what a recovery, brother.
$171 billion >> a few months ago. Billion 40.
>> Yeah, remember that. I It was like two two months ago or so. We reviewed Crowd Strike and the market cap was sub 100 billion. And you told me, by the way, very good call out.
>> Uh, I am a buyer of this company with the market cap um 100 billion.
>> You were right. There was a very good call, Danny.
>> Good job there. And in the case of PW, let me see.
>> Which you you're you're a shappy you're a happy shareholder now, aren't you?
>> Of who?
>> Palo Alto. Did you stick with it?
>> Oh, yeah. I have a position, bro. I have it. Yeah. Let me show you. Yeah.
>> So, my average price is whatever. Go ahead. 188. Show off. Flex on them.
Yeah.
>> 188 bucks. I I I own a 100 shares and I am up 7,000 bucks for the most part. So, no, not mad about it. I have to do something. I need to manage this position, Danny. Um before the earnings before the earnings report come before the report comes out.
>> I actually did that to Crowd Strike and Palo Alto yesterday.
>> Oh, take a look. Awesome. Hey, by the way, we were mistaken. Palo Alto is larger than Crowd Strike. 209 billion.
>> Yeah. So this would if I correct me if I am wrong. This implies that Palo Alto as of now is the largest cyber security company in the world >> with a market cap of 209, right?
>> I don't know if that the case.
>> No, no, I agree. I don't know if I've ever said that PaloAlto is smaller. I know it's larger.
>> Ah, okay. Okay, okay, okay. So, I I think what I said earlier was that PaloAlto tends to trade about $30 billion more.
>> I mean, we could go back and look at the tape later, but whatever. Um, perfect.
Yeah, I would just say watch these if you're in them. Just just be ready because I think CrowdStrike might be up 50%. In the past, I don't know, 15 trading sessions. So, it it really does need to be flawless. And I don't know if we've seen reports at the all-time high for companies like this in the software sector that have gone particularly well.
So, I did take some off of CrowdStrike in Palo Alto, but I mean, I also just held them through a vicious draw down.
So, I I would like to take a little off the table and reward myself, put a little stress off. And I guess it's kind of the theme of the episode for me. I I'm doing a little bit of risk mitigation selling. You know, times are good. Green lantern for stupid. I don't know when it turns off. So, I'm going to enjoy the ride, take a little off the table now, and have a little money for when things cool off.
>> Yeah. So um I don't know why in the case of BOG B which happens to be um the main cyber security ETF >> BG >> BG correct um foret is the largest um stock inside the ETF >> the street >> followed by Akami Technologies um followed by Crowd Strike and Crowd Strike and Palo Alto have the same um weight over the over the ETF pretty much 7% each. So >> Mhm.
>> Yeah.
>> So I mean you can also if someone wanted to have exposure to the cyber security space they could also do the ETF.
There's nothing wrong with >> I mean it's weighted so you know which helps a lot.
>> Yeah. 100% 100. But like the difference for me between bug and Jedi is that I I I feel as though cyber I feel pretty confident saying that crowd strike is going to be one of the winners and one of the big winners. Palo Alto as well.
So I'm just going to buy those two winners and let the rest go. But it's interesting to check the bug ETF. I didn't know that the um I don't I didn't even recognize the second name that you said and and I could bet you that a couple years ago it wasn't that big in the ETF. So uh that's interesting.
>> When it comes to cyber security, we are focused for the most part on Crowd Strike and Palo Alter, right? In as a you know, >> again, the street the street really loves Fortnite. I I couldn't tell you why, but they love Fortnite.
>> Yeah. and that and and it's the the most important stock inside the >> Oh, sorry. Real quick, Alro, before before we go before we are we done here, cyber.
>> Yeah. Yeah, we're done. We're done.
Sure.
>> Before we before we move on from software, I just kind of wanted to say in general, like I I think what hindsight is going to say about this sell-off in software, just broadly speaking, is that the premise was that the competitive advantage for all of them was the code. And the reason you had such a decline is because if you can get the code for $30 a month, what are these companies worth? What we're finding out today, and what was really o what is always so obvious in hindsight is that the competitive advantage of our software companies wasn't just the code.
It was there were there were moes in other places whether it be the size of your base uh the importance like the stakes what you're doing what you're covering for there was more to the software companies than just the code and that is what the premise of AI eating software missed but as we look at some of these software companies many of them have yet to recover so it's still not fully played out so ju just keep in mind that that's what I'd be looking for look for software companies where you can't make the argument that the code is the moat and if you can find those companies then you can maybe start thinking about averaging into them.
>> Agreed. Um take a look at 40 foot man.
>> Oh gorgeous. Yeah >> impressive. I mean a clear >> after earnings.
>> I mean the 5 was broken today you know to the downside. So >> um crowd strike has been flying as well.
So I don't know up 30.
>> Yeah, that was crazy. But but they announced like a partnership I think with Amazon. So that that is helping the the stock a lot.
>> Well, I mean listen for a crowd, strike. So >> I mean look at how the >> Yeah. So then so take a look at how the the sentiment and very negative sentiment of the markets or or I don't know or or fear about the potential disruption from artificial intelligence um changed so quickly in the case of most cyber security companies. So at some point in time this could also happen with software uh companies you know um I'm talking about you know the service nows of the world and the Microsofts of the world and the um what else I don't know uh oracle of the world >> service now you said those yeah okay >> yeah because all of these stocks I mean crowd and the same thing goes for Palo Alto I think they are >> pal should be at a new alltime high or in I mean pretty much all >> excuse Holy. Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. I I got to lock I I have to either lock in the profit. Yeah. They're reporting earnings next week or I should be at least selling covers here in order to protect myself from potential downside. We can make a case that the the bar is going to be a bit high for these.
>> I'd say the bar next week almost too high.
>> Yeah, it is very high. It is.
>> I mean, you never know. I mean, >> no, of course they go higher, but you never know. I mean, we we've priced Fortnet is kind of Fortnet has let the cat out of the bag.
So, if if if these companies don't come out swinging and showing the kind of business relationships or a path towards that Fortnite did, you're in for some selling. I wouldn't bet against PaloAlto or Crowdstrike. There there's so much business. There's so much demand for AI.
There has to be so much demand for AI cyber security. It I would be shocked if PaloAlto or Crowdstrike didn't secure that kind of business.
Okay, good. Fair enough. Fair enough.
>> All right. Hey, so we got time for like one more. What do you want to What What do you want to pick? I got a few stocks we could talk about.
>> Go ahead. Go ahead, bro. Yeah. Yeah, >> sure. So, I think one that we all should maybe start paying attention to. I don't know how uh how familiar people might be with it is uh SECCO, Southern Copper.
>> Hold on, I'm going to pull up the charts here.
>> This is Halo, as we all know. It's our It's our favorite It's our favorite acronym. Why can't I My computer's giving me a hard time.
Here we go.
>> No, it's okay.
>> Here we go. Workspace 2.
>> Uh, so let's just take a look at it on this. The 50-day is in blue, the 100 day is in orange, and the 200 day is in red.
I'll do a three-month here. No, we'll go six months. It's a little bit easier to see this prior top. We've been consolidating between let's call it 195 and to the low side 150 for I don't know say three three monthsish soon. Sorry, there was something in the way. I couldn't actually read it. Uh but I love this candle. You you know shows a lot of support at the 100 day. You're peeking up to the all-time high.
>> Do you have any bullish thesis behind those stock Danny? I mean, so you need copper for >> You can elaborate a bit about southern copper.
>> Sure. Sure. I mean, first of all, AI is not going to start mining copper for you and you need copper to go into these data centers, all of these chips, unless of course you're a believer in photonics, in which case light will do everything, but I think we're probably a few years away from that. Copper is going to be needed for a while. Uh, so beyond just the idea that we need more copper than we have and we need to mine it, the technical chart is starting to break out. Uh here's that the sixmonth I like to use with MACD and RSI. MACD went positive. RSI is trending upward. This is a really nice positive candle. I would wait until you go above 200. I think you get above 200. That's a very clear signal that the bulls are back in control of this name. And you're you're only 20 bucks away from the all-time high. If you look at a weekly chart is a 2-year weekly. You opened above the 20.
>> That is a very good looking chart. Yeah.
>> It it just seems like it's finally shaping up. And if we start to price in an end of the war in Iran, whenever that does happen, dollar is going to go down uh or we start pricing in we start pricing out rate hikes, the dollar comes down. That's going to benefit these industrial materials. So I would keep an eye on southern copper, pull the trigger above 200.
>> You said rate hikes or rate cuts? Red cuts, right?
>> Price price out rate hikes.
>> So go back to neutral. Yeah, that would have strengthened the dollar. So, >> no, no, no, no, no, no. Price out. Get rid of.
>> Ah, get rid of. Okay. Okay. Okay. I got you. Okay.
>> Cuz what I think we have a rate, we have a rate hike priced in this year, I think, don't we?
>> I don't I don't think so. You You and I have been agreeing on this fact very often. Um I I don't I don't think we the Fed will be hiking rates.
>> I don't think but but I don't think that they should be cutting rates either. And I hope for the Fed >> to, you know, um just wait and see what happens. But, um I don't think we're getting a rate cut. Um I probably not this year with the current situation and inflation. So, >> but I don't think it will be hiking rates either. So, >> if we get a rate cut this year, it would be it would be a bad one. It become it'd be because it could be negative crashing. Correct. Because the economy is is pretty weak. Correct. Correct.
>> Sorry. I'm just right now I can pull it up. I'm I'm going through >> the FOMC rate uh rate tool here. This is the June meeting.
>> Target rates 350. This is 350. So hold >> hold >> hold >> hold.
>> October >> hold.
>> Okay. It's hold all the way through, but you're starting to get cuz the the next the next rate hike. Yeah.
>> Yeah. So, it's not yet priced in as a majority opinion, but it's now a greater likelihood than an additional cut, which has not been the case for the past, I don't know, 3 years.
>> Yeah. I mean, that's a 37% >> u probability by the end of the year.
So, I mean, it's getting there, >> getting there, but I imagine if we actually see an end to this war that collapses immediately.
>> Yeah. If that happens, whenever that happens, we'll see about that. Listen, I'm going to be fair. I'm going to be very fair. I picked on Don last week for using the word for using the word eventually. The word if in my sentence is doing all of the work in that analysis. It is a huge if. Capital I, capital F, bolt.
It's enormous.
>> Um, I would say that unless something unexpected happens, the markets probably already priced in the war as we know it.
If something gets like super worse, that would be different. But as of now, you know, even though the price of oil is very high, way higher than when the war started back in late um February, but as of now with this ongoing situation that you say I say, you know, she says his >> he say he say he ran out.
>> Correct. Correct. Exactly. So that that so the markets seemingly already priced at him. So unless something unexpected happens and the situation gets out of control, um it it I mean take a look at the at the price action. Yeah. The S&P 500 just made a brand new alltime highs. It's pricing, folks. That's it. It's price in.
>> All right.
>> As we know it as of now. Yeah.
>> All right. So, I think that's a great place to end it, but I did want to share this thought with you.
>> Sure.
>> And I think it's I think it is the next real bare case we're going to have. It's not SpaceX uh flooding the market. It's not oil. Hey, can I can I ask you quickly something because I had a discussion today in the discord in Spanish >> and I actually made a poll about this.
Um, do you think that data centers in outside the earth in space is a feasible thesis say two or three years out?
>> Oh, no, no, no, no, no. Two or three years? No, no, no, no. I I was about to say something.
>> Did you tell me 20 years, Danny? I mean, maybe. I don't know. Maybe.
>> Well, here's the thing. I am never going to bet against humanity. It's it's a bad bet. We love to do things that we didn't think were possible in before 20 years.
Sure. You know, and it goes to show you when I was growing up, autonomous cars, self-driving cars were something that was just sci-fi.
When I was then like a teenager, early 20s, like, oh, people are actually trying this stuff, but probably, you know, maybe for my kids, not in my lifetime. And today I drive one or well it drives me. So I I don't want to underestimate or bet against our ability to do things that seem crazy but in the next two to three years that is pure lunacy.
>> We're on the same page. Go ahead bro that I >> so the fair case >> I think what is going to happen here soon is when we've talked about it I think we agree the only positive story in our economy is the data center buildout.
>> Yeah. If we start talking about these uh the midterms >> and the Republicans losing the House or losing the Senate or whatever, >> Democrats have come out as pretty anti-data center building because it's it's a it's a political issue. It carries a lot of weight with with voters. If they start taking seats, I think that incredibly dampens the enthusiasm on the only positive aspect of the economic growth story. So I think whenever we start talking about the midterms and then we connect the dots to the Democrats have a good chance of winning one of the houses of Congress, we could see the first material correction >> in the hardware space for that since the rally begun. correct until um we figured out the result of the midterm election. And at the end of the day, I guess that the Democrats, if they happen to win both the Senate and the House, they will I guess they >> I think even one is enough.
>> Here's the thing, Alvo. We will say, but the market will price it in. The markets will price it in.
>> Correct. But but I think that they know that the main strength of the economy is a data center, you know, bailout. So I don't think that they would go all in against that because if that is the case, >> but they would, you know, they would to win the election. I'm not saying they go through with it, but the market does react to how politicians posture.
>> We've seen it with Trump. If all of if all of the Democrats come out united front, we're going to we're going to put the brakes on this. We're going to halt it, the stock market will experience a real correction once the polling data, whether it be from the traditional polls or poly market, shows that Democrats have a chance of taking one of I think that is >> the only real bare case for the next months. Then after the election um if they happen to win say the Senate and the House and the whole thing they will realize that if that that if they go against the >> it's an opportunity the AI investment the economy is going to crash. So you know it is what it is.
>> But I mean listen man yeah that that that's seeing through it. I'm just trying to tell people that when before we get to the before we get to the other side of the tunnel we got to go through it. And it it won't shock me if there's people that are like, >> "Oh, so you know, the I think Maine actually effectively put a hold on data centers in their state. You can't build a data center in Maine."
>> Uh so like there is there is a blueprint for this and if it becomes the consensus democratic view or their their big rallying call, it will get in the way to some extent. And right now the market is not for any obstacles >> that could potentially spook the markets. job. I mean, I agree on that, but you know, at the end of the day, we're talking about a $1 trillion investment, and you know, no politician is going to go against that. So, we'll see what happens. Yeah.
>> Mhm.
>> It will be interesting.
>> Thank you everybody for tuning in 45.
>> They are dumb enough to to do it.
>> We'll see.
>> I posturing posturing, my friend.
Timing. All right, everyone. Thank you for coming in to episode 45, charts and checks. Uh, if you are here, you know where Alvaro is. You're Thank you for being here. If you'd like, go ahead, subscribe to my blog link below. You can stay up to date with all of my work, including the piece I sent out just a few days ago about the Jedi ATF. I generally tend to share a handful of I call them kind of counter consensus pieces, just different ways of thinking and looking at things. And we will see you all next week. Goodbye everybody.
Enjoy your weekend.
>> 100 100%.
>> Goodbye. That
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