Nifty Fills Gap, Struggles Below 24,000 | Is Market Weakness Deepening? | Kunal Bothra | ET Now

Añadido: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]what was being penciled in and therefore what you're seeing is a margin uptick as well. Uh the EBITDA margins have come in at 19% plus for and Asian Paints. You're seeing margin uptick, top line growth, all of that playing out. Uh really the question is that is the worst over with regard to paint stocks, but uh Sajid, the other the other moving part with regard to paints is crude and the move on crude. That is not fully built in yet. Very likely they'd be having crude stocks which would have which would have helped them in Q4. That will not do that will not play out in the same fashion in Q1 FY27.

[00:00:39]>> True. Uh Q4 they would have been an inventory which have which have which which have which which would have been under lower level.

[00:00:47]Uh Q1 means April and May is when we have seen large spikes coming in in in the crude derivatives and as a result of which there will be pressure in the margins going forward there, but also seen around 6 to 8% price actions across the board by various companies which have taken they've not been able to pass on the entire crude impact to the consumers.

[00:01:11]So there would be a muted impact with respect to EBITDA margins there, but yes, profitability will be under pressure in Q1 because full impact of the crude price increase has not been passed on to many of the companies.

[00:01:26]Mhm. Okay. So that's the other overhang that that you want to take care of when it comes to Asian Paints and of course commentary will come through. We'll get a better perspective as to what's playing out with regard to Asian Paints, but really that's the that's the play. Uh you know, so let's quickly have a look at what markets are up to and and we've seen some bit of pressure coming in especially after that morning move which was positive. We're now seeing 160 points lower on the index. Kunal obviously continues to be with us.

[00:01:59]Kunal, what's the sense? What's the play here now?

[00:02:02]>> Yeah, we were you know looking at the retest of 23,750 mark for the Nifty spot. I think that retest is now done for the index.

[00:02:11]So you know and you know the interesting bit is that even at the point where crude oil prices are down towards 91 92 on the Brent crude.

[00:02:18]There was a point where our markets you know showed some sort of comeback in the first half an hour first one hour but that got sold into because of the pressure of so many large cap names and you know the large cap private sector banking names lands under pressure for itself throughout the day. So I think on the back of this you're seeing the indices under pressure but you know the the mood of the market has really been the mid caps and small caps because that's the one or rather this that's the one pocket where you're still seeing strong part of our performance. You're still seeing the mid cap in the small cap index. The last I'd seen doing very well for itself.

[00:02:55]Many of the stocks seeing price volume breakouts on you know multiple time scales. So I think on that on that front we would probably expect that the index movement could remain a little bit more lackluster.

[00:03:06]You know the range for the index is 23,750 on the support on the downside as well as the resistance on the upside is 24,000.

[00:03:15]>> Mhm.

[00:03:15]>> Okay, the resistance on the on the upside is 24K.

[00:03:19]Uh Kunal, near term breaching that likely to be difficult 250 points plus from here.

[00:03:27]>> See I think we're trading into this band into this range. So what's happened today is you know this 150 odd point cut on the Nifty. We've closed the gap which was created on the hourly charts for the index two days back or three days back.

[00:03:41]So you know it's more like a mean reversion when the market gets into a a bit of an excess. There is an you know gap up which gets formed. The market tries to float above those levels but then in the process when the market goes into a mean reversion phase or normalization comes back, that's where those gaps gets filled. I think we've just completed that process for the indices, and that's why I would probably believe that over the next 1 or 2 days, we just need to watch this trading range because once the gap gets filled, there could be either a possibility that the index can drift lower. That would depend on how strong we break this support of 23,750 mark, as well as on the upside if we manage to make a comeback. We need to see evidence where the index sustains about 24,000 levels sustainably. So, I think that's why I would probably just about stay on the sidelines in terms of the index views, but these are the two levels to watch out for.

[00:04:30]>> And aggressive call writing which is happening you know roughly around 1 12 12:30 onwards which we have seen, and now the put call ratio is around 0.7. Uh do you see this going to be some kind of resistance for the Nifty because Nifty is testing the 750 23,750 levels at this point?

[00:04:49]>> Yeah, it should be a resistance of sorts because when you see excessive amount of call writing, and you know it started off at the start of the day when the index was very close to that 24,000 mark on the spot. We were at 23,959-60 approximately on the index spot, and from there is where you'd seen a a good amount of I would say a confident kind of a call writing because the expectation was that maybe hey, the markets would not break above those 24,000 levels. So, why not build up you know some shorting on the call strikes. So, I think that's what we've seen those confidence emerging.

[00:05:20]Now, we need to see two data points. So, what's happened is at the start when the markets you know started to see a call writing build up, the IVs for the Nifty were at the the India VIX that is was at sub-15 levels. Now, we are nearing 16 mark on the India VIX. So, that advantage which option writers would probably have got would somehow probably have been you know paired down because of the rise in India VIX, and that's why I would probably believe that there are these are the two trends to watch out for. One is in terms of the index say if in we make a comeback about 24,000 mark, that's one level to watch out for. But then the manner in which the index comes back about 24,000 levels, that would depend on say the you know IVs falling down to back to 14 and 1/2 levels or if the IV stays at 16 odd mark, that would determine the sanctity of the breakouts.

[00:06:08]That's why I would believe that the bias so far is not indicative of any kind of a major trend uh developing on the entire thesis.

[00:06:18]>> Mhm. Okay.

[00:06:19]Uh so that's really the trend. What's the trend with regard to the bank nifty, Kunal? Very quickly before I slip into a break.

[00:06:25]>> So even for the bank nifty, I think what's happened is today after this uh 300 point cut off for the bank nifty, we'll be falling back below the 50-day moving average. Now apparently what has happened is in the last uh you know three occasions in the last 1 and 1/2 month when the bank nifty has fallen or rather re-fallen below the 50-day moving average, the trend over the near term for the bank nifty has gotten weak. So I would be a little bit more skeptical on the bank nifty at the current juncture.

[00:06:51]And if you sustain below the 50 DMA level, that's 54,48500 on the spot tools bank nifty, there could be some more pressure emerging.

[00:07:00]>> Mhm. Okay.

[00:07:02]Uh all right. Uh so that's the take. Uh this is broadly the way we uh what we're going to do is slip into a very short break, come back, talk more. Plenty to speak about. Asian Paints of course now up 1.3% on [music] the back of those numbers, strong numbers. Stock has already run up quite a bit. Continues given the the kind of results they've posted. Uh we'll come back with more.

[00:07:23]Stay with us.

[00:07:37]>> Mhm.