NEW SOFI BUYOUT, NBIS EARNINGS, CLARITY ACT & MORE | BTLG WKLY

Ajouté : 2026-05-17

[00:00:02]Okay. And we are live.

[00:00:06]Uh late.

[00:00:08]>> You can hang in there. All right. You can hang in there. Uh we were setting up the the timestamps and everything. Happy to be here. Happy Monday, first of all.

[00:00:20]>> Uh that's right.

[00:00:21]>> All right. Sharer, take it easy. How's it going? So, in fact, because it's Monday and we moved boot like weekly to Monday, we are not only not late, but we are early by almost 24 hours.

[00:00:33]>> So, this will probably be our only stream this week unless Teis can or I can convince uh him into a weekend stream or I get home earlier than expected on Friday or something. But um yeah, we definitely this is a big week.

[00:00:46]We wanted to have a lot to cover today.

[00:00:48]Of course, some is on this little company SoFi. We're going to talk about acquisition uh insider buys. Uh we of course have Nebus earnings that are coming up this week. VG earnings coming up this week. Figure earnings coming up this week. HIMS just had its earnings.

[00:01:05]Uh and I'm glad that we're out. We'll definitely talk about it. There's a little bit of uh other uh news on there as well. Clarity Act uh and as always Q&A. So, if you are asking questions that are related to the topics at hand, we'll try to hit those as we go through.

[00:01:21]If not, we will try to hit those in the Q&A period. Uh, Teus, where do you want to start?

[00:01:26]>> I'm just happy to be here and not in meetings because I've just been in meetings all day and like my brain is absolutely putting. Uh, so I'm I'm just happy to be here, man. I haven't looked at the market. I did see him earnings the headline numbers and boy oh boy I don't think a lot of people are going to ask us to get back into him anytime. So um yeah I well I would I would need to dig in further on that. Um I do want to talk about it for sure with you. Um I'm still not sure that the thesis is broken but I you know when I made a video I think a week and a half or two weeks ago I said a lot has been corrected. I need to see more execution. I I don't think it's a time to get back in for me. Uh but you know, I'm not saying never. And this earnings does not make it more likely that I'd get back in. So, um let's maybe start uh with actually I wanted to pull up one of these messages that you sent me because I think that this sets the tone for what we are expecting for the market. Um and I think you probably know which one I'm talking about right here.

[00:02:30]Won't necessarily need to play it. So, I think it speaks for itself.

[00:02:34]>> This macro, should I put that as a time stamp?

[00:02:36]>> Yes.

[00:02:38]Um, so it's kind of interesting because we got two sides of this macro. We have Trump saying basically that he's going to bomb Iran back to the stone age and that he's not happy with where things are with the with the ceasefire with the agreement and everything. And then you have comments like this as well. Uh, you'd better start buying stocks now.

[00:02:57]This country is going to take off like a rocket ship. Um, what to make of this?

[00:03:06]>> Nothing.

[00:03:07]nothing. Like absolutely nothing. If this was last year, people would be, you know, blowing this completely out of proportion. But now it's just another Monday. You know, the guy is just uh >> he just speaks his dude. It's like, you know, we've been recording this stream for what, five years now. Can you imagine the like mountain of ridiculous [ __ ] that I've said over the years? If somebody had a, you know, fine tooth comment and was like, "Oh, tea said this randomly two hours into a three-hour stream where it's all stream of consciousness, like what do you make of it?" It's like nothing, dude. Nothing.

[00:03:44]Uh, so I don't think anything is going to happen. I think we're still working towards a deal and I think it's, you know, posturing in a large like what is he going to say like, "Oh no, they have the upper hand. Like we really hope they make a deal." Like no, he's going to play it till the end. He's gonna try to hold his cards close to his chest and everything that he says, whether it's good or bad, I'm not putting any shred of weight into it.

[00:04:12]Yeah, I think that that's fair. Um, I think the biggest thing is, uh, it's clear that that Trump wants to have the stock associ associated with him, and it's well past the point where it can be like, well, it's Biden's market. Uh, can't do that now. You're you're at midterms. Um, so with that, I don't know. I don't know if it's optimism around the Iran deal. I don't know if it's optimism about another number of other things as well.

[00:04:38]Uh, but regardless, I think as long as the Hormiss situation is resolved and even if not, actually kind of want to get this read on you. It seems like that the market is just ignoring that noise right now. You can look at it uh in from any number of terms. So, one of those certainly is what's happening with natural gas. Uh, you can look at Brent crude as well. This is TTF. It's uh the European uh futures market related to energy uh natural gas using a little bit different measure than our Henry hub. So don't it's not apples for apples but you can pull up most of these uh you know just crude oil futures as well. You can look at Brink crude, WTI, and they are, you know, still very elevated. And so it's really interesting that the market, even though things are not resolved, that there's times where it seems like everything's great and there's times when it seems like this peace agreement is going to fall apart. I unless I think that there's active shooting back and forth. It seems like, at least for this summer, I think the market is in the mood just to ignore whatever people are saying, ignore what's happening in the Middle East and just absolutely pump, especially in tech. Now, maybe it's just because we had a super green Monday, a super green last week as well, but it was kind of the same situation as we saw last year after the Trump tariff stuff, liberation day in April. There was a lot of chop in May and we got to about this point last year and it was a very, very good time to be in tech. So, is that your read on this as well that the market is just like, hey, let's just ignore what's happening in the macro and let's just pump or is there something else more nuance going on?

[00:06:09]I mean, we we talked about this multiple times. I've been very consistent in this view that I think the second half of the year will bring uh good things. Now, I don't know if we're going to have another pullback because we're running a little bit hot right now. And I don't think it's genuinely reflective of all of what we've been seeing. The layoffs are something that's mildly troubling to me that we're seeing. and and you know I think we've compounded these layoffs on top of the layoffs that we had last year and the years prior. So there is a case to be made that that's actually going to reflect in the underlying economy and the purchasing power is going to uh dwindle although that case has been knocked down time and again with with uh earnings coming in very strong and AI actually showing ROI. So all that to say is I think the market is proven that it's resilient and I think this rally can continue. Not straight up of course.

[00:07:06]I mean sure we might have some pullback in May or or some pullback in June but I think it's going to be a buy the dip opportunity in large part because the overall trend is going to be up and to the right.

[00:07:18]>> Yeah. Uh the trend is definitely the fringe and all-time highs are not bearish uh either for individual stocks or also for the broader index as well.

[00:07:26]So, uh, yeah, uh, it's been a good week so far. Let's keep it going. Of course, earnings season so far is, uh, well underway. A lot of the results have been very good. Earlier in the earnings season, a lot of names pumped and or not pumped, uh, that they ran into earnings and then they fell considerably, even if they had great earnings, and some of them have recovered, some haven't. Uh, HIMS, of course, just reported, and we talked just a little bit about it, but I want to pull this up, too, just to show people uh, what's going on a little bit more there. Uh, okay. Here's from him's house.

[00:08:00]And we also need to look at the revenue growth rate, too. So, let me pull that up in just a sec.

[00:08:05]>> What revenue growth rate?

[00:08:06]>> Yes.

[00:08:08]>> So, negative EPS. Uh, they mentioned that the they expect to be profitable again sometime next year, which is not what you really want to hear out and may there may be a valid reason for that.

[00:08:23]have not done enough digging that I think that they just started talking or at least they did when I started driving and I I had other things to pay attention to. Um revenue growth missed uh EPS course was a huge miss adjusted EBIDA as well. Gross margin like this is one of the interesting ones where this was pristine when you and I were first in this name around 80% now it's 65%. I figured it would be down some uh just because some of these partnerships that they have like the we go V and the Eli Liy which is newer. They're not high margin businesses and that's just kind of its nature. Subscribers does look pretty good but it's I mean like all over the place is people are looking at this. They are not really thrilled or happy with what's going on with him at all if they're a shareholder. Uh thankfully for you and I we exited u of course it's fallen a little bit after hours but let me see if this number is live here.

[00:09:14]Uh, okay. So, let's look at margins real quick.

[00:09:18]>> Yeah, we'll talk about this as well. Raw Mexico 7 um figure earnings as well. So, we're going to cover it in the in the video.

[00:09:26]>> Yeah.

[00:09:26]>> Um, let's do total revenues percent change. Let me do quarterly and then Yeah. Here we go. So, uh I'll just I'll do this separate them. Okay. This right here is not what you want to see for revenue.

[00:09:39]>> Yeah.

[00:09:39]>> 3.8%.

[00:09:42]When we were investing, we were talking about hyperrowth, 80%, 95%. Now, the law of large numbers is certainly in play, but there's more than just that. It's more than just the headwinds of that temporary sugar rush of GLP1 revenue.

[00:09:56]That's that's PayPal level growth.

[00:09:59]That's not what you want to see out of your stock. And then, of course, the growth gross profit margin is gross. Uh that again here, we were looking at 70s.

[00:10:07]uh they guided I believe for five years out at 80% and that's not what we've seen. So um I'm not I I've not dug through it. I'm sure you could with a fine tooth comb and find some very optimistic things in this report, but I sure don't see it. So yeah, hateful.

[00:10:25]>> It's funny. I had um uh one of my one my cousins, he just started investing and he his like entire portfolio is like 10k or something and um for whatever reason him was like one of the names that uh he had bought and he's like oh I want to get out of it um because I think he bought it towards like the the bottom or whatever like in the in the 20s not necessarily in the teens and he's like I want to get out of it but I want the you know after the earnings pump and I told him I was like look man like if you want to get out of it and you don't want to hold it, then don't hold over earnings.

[00:10:58]Or if you absolutely must hold over earnings, then sell half before earnings and then sell the rest after earnings because like you're going to be de like risked either way. You're going to be hedged either way. And he's like, "Nah, I think I just hold. They're going to knock it out of the park." And then they're down 10%. And I was like, "Fuck Nitty. I told you." Um but yeah, hims like the peptides thesis is genuinely interesting. The AI acquisition that they just completed is interesting.

[00:11:30]>> I mean their CFO said they're going to return to profitability in 2027. Sure.

[00:11:35]And you could argue they have tough comparable period, but at the same time, dude, I think it's like it's not a company that I would want.

[00:11:44]Like it it doesn't get me excited in the same way. Okay, like when we were investing in HIMS, it was 13 bucks and they were growing at like 80% a year and it was just fantastic. Um because the the weight loss segment had just like really begun versus now where you had the lawsuits and um their entire business got hurt very heavily on the weight loss side of things and their growth rate collapsed. And it really is a big factor like when you're investing in a company, the growth rate is like one of the main things that you have to look out for because it's an indicator of your return on investment and just doesn't have right now. And I'm sure it's going to be fine if they execute well over the long term. like the total addressable market is large enough for them to be a player in that space but yeah I would I I would want to see more and >> yeah and I I don't think there's anything wrong as an investor just saying hey let me see more uh and then investing even if it's a higher price uh usually if there's a hesitance and it's not because of like the price or something external but you're just not sure on the execution whether they can actually achieve this if you wait a little bit you can still make plenty of money in the market too. So that's uh my position with him as well. So we'll have to see. Another that is growing rapidly that is going to report earnings. We'll actually see the numbers tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. The earnings report is tomorrow is this one figure technology. So ran up a little bit here uh just today along with most everything else. Um I'm not you know as far as numbers we've seen the preliminary numbers and everything. They're very very good. So I'm not uh expecting anything poor by any means. Like you can look at uh for instance uh well like everything. You can look up literally every metric and it's just tremendous growth of what they've been able to put up. Consumer loan marketplace is up massively. Uh, so this is kind of like one of those mix shifts of what uh the division between um for for him the generic versus the uh help me out the u the blended the personalized uh a little bit different here but figure initially started just doing basically their own initialization as far as volume for loans and most of that was helocks and of course they've since transitioned to a full platform and so most of the revenue that they actually have and volume is actually partner-based. So they've successfully diverged against that and that's just continuing. I mean like you can see here the partner ecosystem specifically uh for figure connect uh which is where they have these loans on the blockchain like that is just going up rapidly and ridiculously uh total volume locked is actually or value locked is immense.

[00:14:35]It's about half of what's on the chain as well. Uh and 24% of the ecosystem fees are just from that exchange. So, and it's just like one of several lines that they have in the water. So, um their revenue will come in somewhere close to 100% year-over-year. Um they will have harder comps in two quarters from now. So, it's just something to keep an eye on to see if like this is just going to plateau for a little while as they grow into these new growth ventures or if it's going to accelerate further. But, uh I'm pretty excited for that one. So, I won't probably be able to cover it live just because I have a flight tomorrow and it's hard to do both. But uh I'll have to start doing a little more content here just so I can get you in on this hyperrowth name.

[00:15:16]>> Yeah, it's going to be an interesting one to take a look at. I'm definitely going to maybe not listen well maybe listen to the call if I have time, but um definitely going to uh sip through the the press release and the numbers and try to acquaint myself more with it.

[00:15:30]Have you done a stock tank around figure before? If not, we got to get that >> I need to. Yeah.

[00:15:36]>> Yeah. Um cuz it's interesting and it's something that uh I'm curious about. So also did you see Rocket Lab today, Roy?

[00:15:50]>> I I saw the stock. I didn't see what happened or why. I did see AS also went down.

[00:15:56]>> I mentioned I mentioned last week, remember two weeks ago? I said, "Hey, look, Roy, we need to have the the Teis and Roy public portfolio because what have we been talking about, man? We've said we had the SpaceX episode and we said one of the ways to play it is potentially buying other space names because they're going to rise in the hype." And I think Rocket Lap since we did that video is up double.

[00:16:19]>> Um, I don't know if it's for that reason, if that's a contributing factor. There seems to be a ton of heavy volume in uh Rocket Lab right now, but dude, 120 bucks.

[00:16:34]Insane. Insane. Like the last two days have sent this company like up 50% or so. Like something ridiculous. Um yeah, they they are having a great great uh last couple of months. So >> Oh, yeah.

[00:16:49]>> Matt money keeps getting richer, man.

[00:16:51]What can I say?

[00:16:52]>> Yes.

[00:16:54]>> Yes.

[00:16:56]Yeah. Well, like we ran into the same thing with Intel. We ran into the same thing with Micron, too. So, next time, Tevis, even if we don't have a a shared thing that we're doing, we we'll just have to be like, okay, part of my position, we're both bullish on this idea, this theme, this stock, let's invest a little bit of money there. Even if it's a swing portfolio. So, yeah.

[00:17:17]>> Yeah. It's it's a way that we can keep track of all these things that we talk about on the show. Um because I don't know like even if it's a couple hundred bucks that we're investing in in these companies in a public portfolio like we can just get excited about them, you know.

[00:17:33]>> Oh yeah.

[00:17:34]>> What are you drinking today?

[00:17:36]>> Um some Celsius that I cracked open like an hour and a half ago cuz I couldn't get through my day without one. Um >> so we're both tropical today then. So >> you got the vibe and I just have the energy.

[00:17:51]>> Yeah. And this this one is actually better. So, >> dude, I I couldn't make it like through my I was just like mentally saving the Celsius for the stream because I was like, okay, I got to get an energy boost on the stream. It's going to be good.

[00:18:03]It's going to pick up my my morale. And then I was like, it's 3:30 p.m. I can't I can't make it till 6. I just can't do it. So, I had to I had to crack one open.

[00:18:15]>> Uh Wix reports this week, too, right? Am I missing it? Do they?

[00:18:22]>> Let me double check.

[00:18:24]>> Uh I was kind of frustrated because this week, uh yeah, Wednesday, May 13th before the market opens. So it it's like not the week for me to be traveling, but I mean like I wanted to walk in my graduation. So what could I do? But uh yeah, that one I'm really excited about, too. U you know, I'm I have a swing position. I am more than willing to double that position, maybe even triple it. Uh and uh or I'm happy with a double. Like if it wants to go up to 150 or so over the next few months, I'm good with that, too. Uh I think it comes down to base 44. Uh with you, I know that we've done the stock take off episode. That's what reminded me and then I saw somebody comment on it. Um is this a name? I know this is a name that you were interested in when we talked about it at the time.

[00:19:08]Does it still interest you and what would it take for you to get into this name uh here specifically?

[00:19:16]Um, it's still interesting. That's for sure.

[00:19:21]I don't know, man. I think like if if I was to, you know, buy Wix right now after hours, would I be really upset about it?

[00:19:31]Probably not. Um, and if if Wix, say, dropped to, you know, 60 bucks after I bought it, would I still be upset?

[00:19:39]Probably not. I just haven't gotten around to it. I guess >> it's a bad excuse, but there's so many names that are like that. I think once I get a couple of my um my shares called away on May 15th, then I'll have some more money left over that I can just play around with adding to to Wix or some other names that I'm interested in.

[00:20:02]But yeah, largely haven't been buying new names. I think the last new name that I bought was a while ago. might have been like back in December.

[00:20:13]>> Yeah. Yeah. With Wix, uh the biggest thing for me is figure uh not figure uh base 44 figuring out what's happening there as far as the growth. Uh it is growing rampantly. I'm curious uh since they've actually been beginning to uh begun to shift over people that are there to help base 44 grow, accelerate, scale, and actually expand its TAM as well. how those ventures are going. It seems like they're marketing it well, but you never know with these names. U if it's doing what I'm expecting it's doing, I think that the market might get pretty excited about that, but it's still in the software bucket. So, we've we've seen times where there there's a brief glimmer of hope that there's signs of life and then the market sells it off because it's SAS and obviously SAS is apparently garbage right now. So, um, but I I asked I think I maybe I asked you this or it might have been Tanner like what is the value of base 44? Like if you're just going to invest in that, what would be the market or? And honestly, it was not that far away from where I bought Wix as a whole. So, I'm like, okay, let me let me buy base 44, which happens to be under the tag Wix, and the rest of the business is okay.

[00:21:24]Um, >> yeah. The the fact of the matter is that the value of base 44 if it was a standalone today would be higher than the value of Wix's current market capitalization.

[00:21:34]>> Yeah, that's the way I see it. And I'm like, why don't I just buy this? So, uh, with what I have expiring right now with covered calls that are underwater for Air Test Systems, which set a new all-time high today, uh, it closed around 104. Um, I will lose enough air that I'll be able to quadruple my position in Wix if I wanted to.

[00:21:54]>> I'm losing a whole bunch of air, too.

[00:21:56]Uh, this Friday.

[00:21:58]>> It's There's worse problems to have than very in the money covered calls that you made a lot of money on. Like I I have more 95s. I think I have one maybe I have it backwards. I have 175 and several 95s. Yeah, that's right. Uh, so I was thinking the 95s might be safe, but I'm okay with them going away.

[00:22:19]Didn't bother rolling them. Don't regret that. They're there to take gains. And the nice thing is I have enough position left that if everything went to zero in air, I would have still made a ton of money. But, uh, it's not going to zero.

[00:22:30]It's might add another zero. Uh, give it a few years. But >> yeah, I um yeah, I'm going to get half my air position called away and then probably immediately after doing that, I'm going to write on my other half of the position and then see what happens. The premiums are just way too good to not write on.

[00:22:52]>> They are obscene and so tempting, but I'm I'm not going to do it. I'm not going to do it. I really the way that the co talked at the end of the uh previous earnings call is it sounded like there's going to be at least one if not two orders announced before the end of the year that and I don't think that that was including the one from the major hyperscaler that was announced uh three no four weeks ago uh that was a massive one. So I I don't know how much is priced in. I think the stock is further ahead than it honestly it should be at this point. But hey that's a great problem to have. I'll never complain too much on that. Uh but uh I'm curious if that causes it just to pump uh even more like if it's up 10 20%. I think that time is a time maybe for me to sell some covered calls again. But yes, we got to get Teis in favor for sure.

[00:23:39]>> Rudy Smasher, thank you for the $4. Uh should I roll my 140 covered calls on Nebus? Um 140 covered calls for when?

[00:23:49]When is the expiration date?

[00:23:52]>> It could be for air 140.

[00:23:54]I thought you said 240. Oh boy. Um, >> yeah. One quick, if it's this Friday, you might be toast, my friend.

[00:24:03]>> So, so let me tell you what I'm doing on that. I I did it today. Um, just cuz since I'm traveling, I don't want to be in the the middle of graduation and they're calling my name up and I'm like, hold on, let me let me roll this. Uh, so I ended up rolling uh I had 150s. I thought I had 160s and I'm so frustrated. I rolled two weeks further out uh because they were going to expire this Friday and I think I got 15750 which is not the best strike. It's not the prettiest strike. Not the most volume either, but I was able to do that with basically no there was a little bit of debit but not much. Um so >> yeah. So I I looked at it like hey I'm making an extra 750 bucks per 100 uh shares um essentially. Is that worth two weeks of my time? It is. Yeah. Uh if Nebius had smashed through 200 bucks at that point, I would have just let him go. So uh but at one point, yeah, at some point, Rudy, like when it's no longer makes sense for you personally to roll them out, like if you're looking and you're like, I'd love to roll these out uh to like next May something, it's an opportunity cost. Like it may be worth it and you may want to do it and there's nothing wrong with that. But um there is a point where you're like, "Okay, it no longer makes sense to roll these out. It's just too hard." and you let those go. Great problem to have.

[00:25:22]>> Yeah, I have so I closed a couple of my covered calls on Friday. I still have and then I rolled a couple covered calls for 260 for June 18th at a net credit. And then the remaining covered calls I have open are spread between 210 and 215 for this Friday. And I'm just, you know, Jesus take the wheel on those. Um, not intending to close them. If they get hit, I get the shares called away and that's fine by me. I'll reduce my position a little bit. Um, and I'm worried about them at 215 for this Friday, 4 days from now. So, you know, 140. Look, what I'll say about Nebus is that the IV is going to keep the premium fairly high. If you were going to roll, I would probably do it tomorrow because IV is in your favor.

[00:26:19]Um, and yeah, the time the time value is like not the worst thing in the world.

[00:26:24]Obviously, not financial advice. I actually looked at uh rolling my Amazon calls, Roy. Um, I have a couple of calls for Amazon at uh that I roll like a month or two ago at 235. Okay. 235.

[00:26:40]Amazon's at 273.

[00:26:43]And I was like, "Oh, no problem. I'll just go out one and a half months." Roy, I get two extra dollars of time value for the for the same like strike price.

[00:26:56]I couldn't even roll it up $5. And I was just like, "Dude, this is so stupid.

[00:27:01]Like, let me just get the shares called away and I can use that money more effectively in one and a half months.

[00:27:05]Are you kidding me?" And it's like it locks up like 50 grand like for for for 200 shares of Amazon. I was like, "Okay, nope. don't want to do that. But for Nebius, for example, you could probably roll them out one and a half months and get a net credit and still like roll it up and out and still get a net credit.

[00:27:21]>> Yeah, I'm fine rolling it out uh you know, when I'm basically more than $50 uh out or in the money. It no longer makes as much sense. Uh for me personally, uh especially given that there I think that there's still plenty of opportunities in the market. It's not like if there was a der maybe I'd just continue to roll even if it didn't make too much sense, but we're not there yet.

[00:27:41]So, um, yeah, New Bank is another one, by the way, guys, that has earnings also on Wednesday, and it's like I'm traveling, can't can't cover it all.

[00:27:51]New Bank, the nice thing is like even though it's kind of smashed to bits as far as a share price, uh, really good high quality company where it's one uh that if I don't have time in an earnings season, I don't have to go over like really carefully.

[00:28:04]super long-term holding whether the stock price goes up or down. Usually there's nothing in there that I I'm like, "Oh man, this is really bad. It's it's a great company." So crazy busy earnings week though. Um yes, >> the one thing that that is not having earnings that I for sure wanted to talk to you about because I wanted to hear your thoughts on this is SoFi. Uh so of course SoFi ended up uh with a couple interesting things. One was we saw Nodto's uh insider buy. We mentioned this I believe on Friday and then again an insider buy came as well. These are not large buys from him uh but they are relative to what uh we typically buy in retail and insider buys are always bullish but that wasn't the most interesting thing. Um you saw this I'm sure on the uh acquisition uh for SoFi.

[00:28:54]>> Yeah. Yeah. I saw this.

[00:28:56]>> So let me set the stage and and this guy I do want to give credit you know he he did find it on FINRA. I did look it up myself and he is right um that uh this was an announcement effective as of April 2nd. It looks like that perhaps the timing of the dates that this is when the acquisition or whatever happened here actually went through that previously they may have been in talks or in works to do that and so technologies is the parent company now of composer securities and uh so Tevis what was your initial reaction or thought when you heard this?

[00:29:31]>> Can't believe you threw that guy up on the screen. That's insane. Um >> I'm going to give credit where it's due.

[00:29:37]Even if that posted that news, man, don't give that guy any >> e even if somebody's been a jerk uh to me, then yeah, I'm like, you know, I'm still going to turn the other cheeks.

[00:29:47]So, yeah.

[00:29:48]>> Well, that makes one of us. Um yeah, look, I think it's uh it's a good I mean, look, people have been asking for SoFi to make acquisitions and asking the question of what are they going to do with their cash balance? And it's interesting because on the earnings call was saying they want to pursue opportunistic acquisitions that will empower the tech platform, but these are actually acquisitions that help the invest platform. Um, so for example, I think I made a post on this. See, let me let me show you Roy an actual source that you might want to share.

[00:30:29]Uh so I said here look um you know another Sofa acquisition expanding their international presence and increasing retail investor access to IPOs. Primary bid was a partner back in October 2024 to create the uh the DSP 2.0 platform for IPOs and capital raises. So they're just building on that. Now the interesting piece here was they acquired the majority not the full thing. I guess one question is like, hey, will we see Sofa UK expansion anytime soon? Is that on the horizon? Because this was something that, you know, when we chatted with Notto like he wasn't very definitive that international expansion was coming this year. He he mostly said it as like something to focus on for next year.

[00:31:18]>> Yeah, it it's really interesting because you have that. You also have this uh acquisition too, which is a Canadian one. Um, not that you necessarily need to be in Canada.

[00:31:29]>> You dare bring him back up.

[00:31:32]>> I'm not going to I'm not doing it.

[00:31:34]>> No, no, no. I'm I'm bringing up this uh because this shows uh quarter one uh what happened here. Uh let me me search in here. Um invest and it's a further down. I know. Um there was clear acceleration in the SoFi invest numbers beyond what I think any of us expected. So we can see right here uh this is products uh so up to 3.67 million versus a year ago 2.684 37% change. It was growing in the mid20s even just the previous quarter. And you know, I had some people ask and say, "Well, do you think this is because of this small acquisition that they did with Composer?" Looks like that went through in April. So, I don't think that accounts for it. Other people have said, "Well, maybe it's crypto." I mean, crypto's right here. They broke that out separately, so it's not. Um, so it looks like to me, and they've also had a lot of interesting matching incentives, that they are very focused on uh going through and uh getting their Invest platform from where it's at where it's it's okay. Uh, that's probably the best and nicest thing you can say about it to something that's actually really compelling and gets a lot more people on board. So, it'll be interesting to see if that flywheel can continue to fill out. Um, I think it's a good time for it. Uh, so yeah, interesting that we didn't see any announcements about that. As far as why we didn't, by the way, if anyone's wondering, under a certain threshold, uh, it's not something that you have to release necessarily in an 8K or press release. A lot of time companies will anyway just because they want to showcase or show off something that they've been building. But if it's something like a composer where they're operating as a separate business unit, it may be that they just say, "Hey, let's just work with a composer. It's going to run its own business as well.

[00:33:25]Let's get things where we want to first for an invest and then we'll actually show off what we've launched instead of here's our plans for the next year." So, >> let me bring this comment up. Deep cheeks say, "I thank you for the $5 and every time you make me say that." Um, he asks, "Roy, do you think my 20 covered call contracts of Micron are safe?"

[00:33:52]At 800 strike this Friday, Micron was up 6 and a half% to a high of 818 and dropped to 795.

[00:34:02]Uh, it depends on what you got for them.

[00:34:06]I think you're definitely going to be breached. You might you're you're probably going to get those shares called away, especially because Micron was in the eight, you know, in the in the teens around the 820 range.

[00:34:21]One more green day is really all it takes for you to completely have your position blow out water. But if you got a good premium around it, if you got like 30 bucks, 40 bucks, like you might still end up net positive even though the shares get taken away. Just my personal opinion >> and I would say that you're definitely at risk. I mean we're basically there for the strike. Um the market feels quite green and exuberant. I mean macro can obviously save you. You know they start shelling uh Iran again or something then all bets are off. But um I mean it doesn't hurt if you're wanting to keep those and that's your priority rather than risk it or wait for it on for Friday. Give yourself some peace of mind. look for a uh good opportunity to roll it out. We talked about this last time that a lot of times the monthlies, so the third Friday of each month will have more volume. Uh so maybe look for next uh month uh the third Friday and see what the contracts look like. You might be able to roll this out uh you know to like 850 or something without much pain, without maybe any pain. The premiums have to be pretty juiced. So wow.

[00:35:27]>> That that's just a flex. Um, >> so it sounds like you may want to take some profits if you haven't already. So, and congrats.

[00:35:36]>> Yeah.

[00:35:36]>> Wow.

[00:35:37]>> Congratulations.

[00:35:39]>> That's Yeah, that's that's a lot of shares of Micron.

[00:35:41]>> Yeah, there should be some extra zeros on that donation. Deep cheeks. Uh, but but yeah, I look I agree with, you know, one of these comments. Micron will be a thousand soon. Mark my words. I think Micron as well as SanDisk like these are going to continue climbing higher and uh I think they can get to some pretty crazy levels that people might be surprised to hear because everything we're seeing from a demand perspective is so incredibly resilient.

[00:36:13]So yeah, in the short term, play it however you play it. But I would also imagine that um I would also imagine that you can roll those covered calls out pretty easily cuz the IV I haven't looked at Micron, but the IV on Micron I would be shocked if it wasn't like crazy high.

[00:36:32]>> Oh yeah, it's obscene. It's it's up uh like 50% over the last two weeks or something. So um it's absolutely ridiculous. Um all right, you had a note here on the Clarity Act. Do you want us update us on the Clarity Act and let's talk about that a bit?

[00:36:50]>> Oh, buddy, do I ever. Um, yeah, the vote is going to be well, it's going to be in committee on on Thursday. So, like that's the key date to uh follow for this week.

[00:37:03]If you are Ethereum, BMR, or crypto, you know, investor in general, that's the main date to to keep in mind. Now, what happened? Uh Roy, if you haven't been following my videos, uh on Saturday I mentioned because I I've been following this uh this little drama uh that is US politics and and um it's basically been you know a compromise effort over the course of months between the crypto community, the banking lobby and the regulators and lawmakers And generally speaking, there was issues with Brian Armstrong pushing back in January. They got to a compromise. You know, banks were initially pretty happy with that compromise on on stable coin yield. We saw famously Anthony post about it. Vlad of course.

[00:37:58]And uh and then crypto companies weren't happy with it. They pushed back on Coinbase. Brian Armstrong became sort of like the villain because he was the one holding it back. Then magically uh they Coinbase uh along with like 200 other crypto companies signed this long letter.

[00:38:16]Coinbase turned around and they signed this long letter to say, "Okay, we're we're happy with this. Let's pass it."

[00:38:22]And then just last week, Roy, we are now getting rumblings of banks, some banks going to other senators outside of Tillis and also Brooks to essentially lobby against this to now have more favorable language than what they already have. arguing that the language is not tight enough, arguing that uh you know we need to sort of go back to the drawing board that they're not happy. And it's so incredibly frustrating because my perception of what we got is a compromise that still leans pretty favorable towards banks.

[00:39:06]It's not like crypto companies are getting what they want. it still leans towards the direction of banks and they're still not happy and there's still an outsized possibility that banks pressure these senators into delaying throwing a wrench into things. Now, Tom Tillis came out along with uh with also Brooks and they said, "Hey, look, tough luck, Buttercup. Live with it. You know, this is going to pass in this version and we've heard you guys out." They actually delayed it for another week in uh in April to hear these guys out and they said, "This is the version that's going to go to committee." Now what happens is it it goes to committee on Thursday and if it passes the committee then it's going to go to a Senate vote and then you know back to Congress so that the versions match up and then also signed. The idea is that they signed this before July 4th. That's sort of like the date that uh everybody is wanting to bag as a win. That won't happen if these banks have their way and they just punt the deal. And whether they punt it because they just want to kill it alto together and it gets sort of bogged down by regulation or whether they genuinely think they can get a better deal out of it. They're trying.

[00:40:25]And I read about that today. Bernie Moreno, one of the senators posted uh I mean we can take a look at the post if you want, but uh it was a pretty strongly worded post. Uh, so this is Senator Bernie Moreno and he he was the one that uh last week he said, "Look, this is going to pass. You know, we're going to we're doing everything that we can to pass it." He says, "The banking cartel is in full panic mode." This is senator. He's from Utah, I think, Ohio.

[00:40:52]Um, while Americans were celebrating Mother's Day with their families, the CEO of America's Banker Association sent a frantic alert to everybody, uh, demanding the immediate engagement to lobby senators to kill stable coins that would finally let Americans earn real yield on their own money. Uh, basically talking about, uh, that, you know, there's loopholes and and trying to go back to the drawing board, so on and so forth. And now, this is a very strongly worded message from the senator. I can't wait to cover this actually on on on Saturday, but uh bro, I don't know how else to say it. I don't think we hate banks enough. And I don't think we can ever hate banks enough because in my opinion from covering this every single week for the past six months now, like the crypto industry as well as regulators and lawmakers have given them an arm and they also want a leg too.

[00:41:47]like you know they they they want everything and more and the amount of immense power that they wield in the decision makers docket is a little bit troubling.

[00:42:02]So my hope is that this obviously passes on Thursday without a hitch and these guys are not loud enough to bring us back to the drawing board. I would be really pissed if it does. the poly market has kind of uh pulled back, let's say, from a confidence perspective that clarity is going to pass. But yeah, I I would be I would be pretty pissed uh if in fact this doesn't pass because of this.

[00:42:26]Yeah, I'm still holding my um event contract on Robin Hood that it won't pass, even though I'm hopeful that it will. Uh I I think it has a stronger chance than it did when I wrote those three or four months ago. But yeah, the the banks like like what you said, they there's there's two banks that I'm invested in and it's New Bank and SoFi.

[00:42:49]And one of several reasons why I like them is they are disrupting the type of bank that I absolutely loathe with every fiber in my being. Um I mean, I saw it like firsthand when I was uh at Wells Fargo. the the business that I had, which you know did great. We did a lot of stuff, a lot of wire transfers with them as well and had a lot of banking needs. They were fine, they were good, and they treated me very very well. And when we ended up putting most of our equity into a house that we bought and we had very little, I saw a very different type of treatment from Wells Fargo when it looked like we weren't doing very well. And I'm like, I don't like that. Uh treat treat me decently.

[00:43:29]Treat me like a human. don't give me the runaround and make my life harder because of x y and z because I'm under a certain amount in your bank. So um plus they don't give any yield. We're we've been living in a time during co like it was maybe excusable that that you know everybody's given pretty low interest just because interest rates are low but fed fund rates are incredibly high.

[00:43:51]Banks profit off of that and instead some of the largest banks in the United States give almost nothing. uh you actually are losing money every single year thanks to inflation while they're putting your money at work for themselves. I hate that. I really do.

[00:44:06]So, I much prefer the banks like New Bank and also SoFi that not only have better services, uh better quality as well, but they actually give you a better yield. They're not the only ones out there, but yeah. And then like the last thing is that makes me so frustrated. I I already didn't like the compromise the way it was. I'm like, you know, it's it's workable. it actually might be to the advantage uh for a lot of crypto positioning that it's it's you it's rewards based so you're actually wanting to utilize the stable coins and that's you really the bullcase there um thank you for that donation to my friend uh Tevis Deep Cheeks AI but uh yeah regardless uh this is absolutely ridiculous that they're pushing back but banks are greedy they they are especially the old line legacy banks and I'm so excited that they will be disrupted even if they want to turn back the clock and just make it so stable coins don't exist essentially.

[00:44:57]>> And that's exactly what they want to do.

[00:44:58]And like I get it, man. Like I understand it doesn't make it any better. And like it if I had complete dominance in this paradigm, why would I vote for something that changes the rules of the game where I wouldn't be the number one player in the future? It's the same with politicians and term limits and politicians and not being able to invest and all this stuff. Um, insider trading banks, like all of these institutions that are at the top of the, you know, pyramid right now, like they're disincentivized to want change because they're benefiting actively from the current status quo.

[00:45:39]Like, >> intuitively, we may like that makes sense. Now, on a human level, oh god, I couldn't hate banks more with a burning passion because of exactly everything you just said. I've had the exact same experience, and I guarantee you pretty much everybody in the chat has probably had the exact same experience. Like, oh, so you're going to hold the money that I, you know, work hard to to to make and you're going to charge me for doing that and I can't withdraw it without your permission or giving you accountability as to what I do with it.

[00:46:11]and you're not going to give me loans unless I already take on risk. Like there's there's so many things that like when you think about them with a clear mind, you're like I understand it from a business perspective. I don't like agree with it from just a normal just human perspective. I don't know how to say it otherwise. Like it's such a scummy type of business. I don't know. I really like SoFi because they're actually giving back a lot of their APY.

[00:46:37]They're giving back a lot of the yield because they're vertically integrated.

[00:46:40]And I think their incentives are aligned in large part with their users. And most new neo banks, like I moved over all of my banking with actually a company that uh here in Canada, it's like the the Robin Hood brokerage. They now offer like banking services as well, but they give me like 3%, you know, uh three 3.2% or something APY. and it's it's it's pretty good. Versus my traditional bank that I have another account, they charge me 14 bucks a month just to use their basic services with zero returns. And I'm like, dude, what like how is that even an equation? Like, of course, I'm going to, you know, move that. And so, it's just like on top of all of that, now you finally get, dude, do you understand how how difficult this is to fathom? Like you have lawmakers, okay, these 60 and 70 year olds who like finally have wrapped their mind around what the hell a stable coin is to now saying, "We want to actively push for this because we want to drive innovation in this company and we want to be competitive in this new paradigm."

[00:47:46]And you cross that entire mountain just to have this banking cartel be like, "No, you know, we don't like that.

[00:47:52]Sorry." And it's so disingenuous, too, because they've been saying the whole time that it's it's just because they're afraid that if you do this, all of a sudden their whole lending structure and then everything about capitalism collapses, United States collapses and the world ends. I mean, like hyperbolic and yes, I'm I'm saying it to an extreme, but that's the argument that they're making is not, you know, we have concerns or, you know, it's going to hurt our business. uh but instead like hey we're the whole financial system might collapse but you know what's been happening the last two years teus we've been under the genius bill and it has not caused a complete and utter collapse in fact banks are doing just fine we've had earnings for most of the banks as well they're deploying stable coins and they're able to do this and their big push back is well they shouldn't be able to offer yield and so this is the compromise and the fear was like that they're going to lend out multiples against this. They can't do that. They don't have a banking license. So, it's very it's a very disingenuous argument.

[00:48:54]Uh ultimately, the bottom line is banks are greedy. Uh and I hope that SoFi, a new bank, and those like them just force them to innovate and iterate or just go extinct. And I'm okay with that.

[00:49:08]>> Yeah. Look, at the end of the day, if you have a business model that you have to keep people hostage that or else your business model fails, like maybe you got to revisit your business model. Maybe I'm a little bit too libertarian, you know, uh, for this audience, but I do believe that the market should ultimately decide. And if it takes a market collapse or a market crash to do that, that's fine. We've had that multiple times in the history before.

[00:49:33]It's actually healthy for that to happen because it ushers in a new wave of innovation that ultimately is beneficial to everybody, especially new generations. You can't like cling on to the existing system so hard that you're like hindering progress. It's just it doesn't intuitively make sense and I think it's going to like ultimate. Like I was having this argument with a friend. He was just like, "Oh, like China's doing it so well because um they're not allowing you to have layoffs as a result of AI." Like they're forcing you to keep people employed in spite of AI. And his whole argument was, oh, because like if those people lose their jobs, then like the economyy's toast.

[00:50:18]And my whole ar and maybe he's right and I don't know, right? My whole argument was like look if people are disruptible by AI they should be disrupted by AI because ultimately like that's just you know one of those paradigm shifts in technology that you'll see every you know 50 years or so like at some point in the late 1800s 96% of people were farmers and then the industrial revolution came and the whole paradigm completely changed and then again when the internet came the paradigm completely dude the job that we're doing right now as a job as as a career didn't exist 20 years ago, you know, and it was it was created as a result of this new technology that was ushered in. And so the idea that, you know, the push back that I'll get is like, oh well, like you don't know because AI is so powerful now that you won't have jobs in the f it's like, dude, yes, you will because the market will decide. People are innovative by nature. They're creative and they will find a way. But you can't use regulation in a predatory fashion to hold back innovation and then also by the same you know breath call it progress but banks will try. Um now the question is will they fail? I think that this attempt to change things last minute.

[00:51:34]I I feel like the the clarity act is still has the same odds as as it did last week to pass. Uh they do have a long reach. There might be people that would have vote voted for this otherwise that are having their sponsors, the banks say, "Hey, don't vote for this."

[00:51:50]Hate that. That's where we're at as far as politics. But if this does pass Tevis, uh what are the implications for crypto? Uh what are the implications for some of the names you hold or you're watching? Do you think this marks the bottom or the end of Crypto Winner? Are we already there yet? Um is everything going to pump?

[00:52:10]Uh, I think it's going to be good for crypto because it allows institutions to get in in a bigger way. And you know, one thing that I was talking about on Saturday and over the past several weeks was monitoring the degree to which institutions were positioning themselves in the crypto space, whether through their ETFs or other funds and even through their brokerage offerings or or you know, private investments in the crypto space.

[00:52:35]And I think institutions won't do that in real volume if they don't have regulatory clarity. Like they need to have a very clearly defined position from a legislative perspective to have the confidence to go in because like this is huge numbers we're talking about. And if you want to have a future that includes tokenization, that includes stable coins, that includes, you know, agentic payments rails on the blockchain, you absolutely need to pass this as a prerequisite. like you need to establish the rules of the game before anybody can start to play. That's a that's a non-starter.

[00:53:09]>> Oh yeah. Yeah. I agree with that. It's it's one of the reasons one of the parts of my thesis around figure uh is they're they're already building a lot of really interesting things onchain uh with crypto. But I I think that there's some hesitancy there with some businesses and some partners less so than two years ago obviously just to have crypto exposure to build things on crypto until they have certainty of what that regulatory environment looks like and once we have that what SoFi is trying to build with the big business banking what figure has been building what others have bu building as well I think we'll see a lot more adoption just because that fear has gone away clarity has arrived in the form of the clarity bill So hopeful that we get it. I don't know that it marks the bottom or the end of the crypto winter, but the end, you know, is not too far away, I think, at that point when it does pass. Uh hopefully it does, you know, be great this summer. Uh later we get we get in the midterms and then things can get messy. So >> yeah, I understand I might have gotten a little triggered um you know, in in that whole like bank. Like if if you want to trigger me, just talk about politics or banks and I'll just go off like your uncle on Thanksgiving, you know? Like I will um have have no filter when it comes to that. But look, man, at the end of the day, like we should be asking these questions. We should be trying to keep, you know, people accountable. And if not us, who? You know, I mean, like Gen Z is pretty much checked out of the entire I think like millennials in large part are like burned out. And if they're not burned out, they're trying to make a positive change because they're finally in their lives going into those positions of power where they're replacing the old guard versus Gen Z who is just like, "No, I don't want to play this game. I want to completely opt out of of of this established sort of game where the pie has already been carved. And I just think that like I don't know if you can't talk about it then what the hell is the point?

[00:55:13]>> Yeah, nothing wrong with that. Although I might say that you hate banks about as much as Andrew Jackson. I mean like he he was not a fan at least of the National Bank of the United States. But man, >> it was a difficult >> I thought I didn't like banks, but man, you you make me look like a bank lover.

[00:55:31]So, >> bro, I keep telling you in this in these streams, like I am like one live stream away from a goolog. Uh, you know, living where I do and and saying what I say like anyways, it is what it is. Let's move on.

[00:55:47]>> Absolutely. Um, I did see a couple of comments on Venture Global. Um I I rather than save it for the Q&A period.

[00:55:54]They do report earnings tomorrow morning as well. The the bigger thing for Venture Global guys is just what's happening with the straight of Hormuz.

[00:56:00]But I I probably won't have time for this video um or even post I I actually did do a small post on Venture Global yesterday. Um I wouldn't be afraid of the pricing action here. Now, of course, it went up today, but if you see Venture Global dip down some, well, let me just let me just show this on Google. Simple little thing right quick. I think this kind of tells part of the story here. So if you look back uh previously venture global before straight a hormous stuff it was trading at nine and a half anyway it had been for actually really since the beginning of the year close to the beginning of the year some of it was it was priced too low anyway the arb stuff went uh there was a lot of favorable news relating to that uh along with the plaque means project as well uh so it's weird that people think that here that all of a sudden when hormuz is open that venture global is going to crash down five bucks cuz I mean like what are we talking about? Um so the reality is like at this range and if I see below 11 I may just buy some um leaps at that point. Uh I've sold all my leaps at a higher level. I only have common shares.

[00:57:08]Uh or maybe maybe I'll wait till 10.

[00:57:10]We'll see what earnings does. But if there is a a really a big overreaction and I'm able to grab that while I'm traveling tomorrow, I'm going to be very happy to do that because this company, it wasn't just a one-time benefit uh from the this the difference in the spread. And that spread widened immensely both on both ends. Uh on NG over here at Henry Hub, uh the prices got a lot cheaper and internationally at TTF and JKM markets went up substantially. So they had an immediate short-term benefit. They also uh are likely able to get a better credit rating as a as a result. They can look at refinancing things later down the road. The cargos over this next month over May are going to be absolutely impressive because they do benefit from that spread. They have an extra ship as well that was delivered the Cameron I believe. Uh and uh yeah, they're just positioned so incredibly well. At the same time that sadly, even though uh Cutter uh ended up being able to send out one LG ship, uh another one had to turn back today. It's not fully open.

[00:58:14]They've not fully opened their fields.

[00:58:16]Ross Lefon has some permanent damage there that's going to take up to 5 years to repair. That's 15% of their capacity.

[00:58:22]The the glut is gone. We're structurally short this year anyway on what natural gas can be produced and delivered to market. So there's zero reason for it to dip back into single digits. If you see it, you've been looking for an entry, Tevis, maybe that's the time to get in.

[00:58:40]>> Do you know who Rob Ford is?

[00:58:43]>> No.

[00:58:45]>> Sorry, some guys brought up in the chat.

[00:58:48]He used to be the mayor of Toronto and uh >> I do I have heard of him. He he was guy, right?

[00:58:55]>> He was what?

[00:58:56]>> He was a druggie.

[00:58:58]>> Like he used Yeah.

[00:58:59]>> Yeah. And it just reminded me of of an interview that uh that he had when he was like confronted about his drug use.

[00:59:10]I'll I'll share I won't share it on screen obviously, but I I'll share it with you after. It's like the most hilarious one minute of uh of television that you can ever wish for. Um, yeah.

[00:59:24]All right, let's go into the Q&A. Roy, that sounds like a question to me.

[00:59:36]>> All right, Q and A.

[00:59:48]Oh, man. No, it wasn't. It wasn't that um clip, Ruby. I'm not going to throw up your comment on the screen, but that one is also hilarious. It was like um where he was basically asked like, "Oh, like were you offered blah blah drugs?" He's like, "You're just jealous that nobody wants to hang out with you. You're just jealous that you don't have any friends." He's just like going off on the reporter. Um yeah, he he's got a couple of goodies, that's for sure.

[01:00:17]I also saw like this showed up in my um on my feed the other day like it was a it was a compilation of like George W.

[01:00:24]Bush, you know, funny moments. Dude, I forgot how funny that guy was. That guy was also hilarious cuz like people >> politics Yeah. politics aside, even if you hate them, like great sense of humor and like >> I don't know. Yeah, >> people people give Trump so much crap.

[01:00:42]They're like, "Oh my god, like outrage."

[01:00:44]Like, "Did you hear what he just said?"

[01:00:46]that it's like, were you born yesterday?

[01:00:48]Like, yes, there's been like multiple people. Like, are you shocked that the a politician made it through that they're not the sharpest tool in the toolbox?

[01:00:57]Like, there's there's some funny moments across the board for all these guys.

[01:01:05]Um, anyways. Anyways, let's move on.

[01:01:08]Let's move on.

[01:01:11]>> Hims is continuing to sell off apparently.

[01:01:13]>> Ah, who cares?

[01:01:15]>> Wow. down 12 uh almost 13%. I'm so glad I'm back.

[01:01:18]>> It should be their call or their call is over, right?

[01:01:21]>> Uh probably. Yeah. Yeah. I did a video u recently on u a mistake that retail often makes which is holding on just waiting for a break even. And so I used him as one of the examples, also PayPal of I sold these was over a PayPal. Not sure on HIMS, but seemed cloudy. And I compared it with the gains that I made, which I mean that's not the best measure to to figure out if you have the right process or not, but over time you would think that that would be more often than not would benefit you to go to higher conviction, but like man, it worked out perfectly. Exiting him and buying Nebus Manuel, >> is that who you're talking about? for me for me. Uh but yeah, Manuel did it well earlier. Like he he did it when WS was significantly smaller and hims was significantly higher. So I I was like I don't want to make that kind of money.

[01:02:14]Just you know an easy double.

[01:02:16]>> Do you know that he also bought Rocket Lab at $4?

[01:02:19]>> Of course. You know what stock he's in that you're not?

[01:02:23]>> I hate that guy. Just kidding.

[01:02:27]>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Um I got You know what? I'm going to be in Wix eventually, I think. So, it's going to happen. It's just a matter of time.

[01:02:38]Let's get into questions. Thomas at 6:01, right when we started saying, "Getting my question in early so I can screw around. Um, do you all have simple boilerplate rules on taking profit you set for yourself or do you trim as you go with active review?" I'm more of the second one.

[01:02:57]>> It depends on the position and the reason for holding that position. If it's swing, I always will have set exits, which I always reserve the right to to change my mind. Robin Hood was one of those where it went from a swing position to a permanent one. Um, just because they convinced me of of the opportunity there. Um, for my other main holdings, it's usually when it just gets to an uncomfortable weight in my portfolio. And again, that that depends on the position. It's not the percent that matters, but the percent relative to my conviction. So, Air Test Systems, if it's 30% of my portfolio, if I hadn't sold anything, probably higher than that, that would be an uncomfortable waiting for a company that has a $3 billion market cap for me personally.

[01:03:38]Uh, yeah.

[01:03:44]Yeah. I'm more of the second if if something goes up in a in a big way, I'll let go of a little bit just to lock in some gains along the way. And that's just a knee-jerk response because in the past there's been these violent es and flows in a lot of the names that I hold.

[01:04:03]Like for example, SoFi, you know, went from $4 to 30 and now it's back to 15.

[01:04:08]And it's like, well, if you're averaging up along the way, you might be flat on SoFi if you've held it for four years because you've averaged up. And like, yes, you do have a bigger position, but you have no gains to show for that entire time holding. And so, you know, at $30, nobody knew if it was going to go to 50 or 15, I don't think anybody would have confidently told you that, hey, this is going to go to $15 in 6 months with a straight face. Like, you wouldn't have believed them. And if you had taken some gains there, well, you would have been feeling better about it. You know, you would have been feeling like, all right, well, you know, I have something to show for that rally upwards. And many many names, you know, have this. I mean, there's some that have just gone in a straight line up, but there's also those that, you know, overshoot on both sides in their stairst step upwards. And so, I think for that reason, for me, it just makes sense to take some off the table.

[01:05:10]You know, like for for Nebius, for example, like if Nebus goes to 215 by this Friday, I'm going to be probably trimming about 25% of my position. And I'm fine with that because, you know, I have a $80 cost basis and I'm selling it at 215 for 25% of the position. Like, I'll still leave 75% on, no problem. But if, let's say, something happens and we get into another conflict or, you know, uh, CPI or whatever, and and Nebius for whatever reason falls back to 120, well, all of a sudden, I'll be very grateful that I sold at 215. So, that's sort of like the way that I think about it. It's just sort of like a a hedge or a protection around the volatility because these things don't just go up in a straight line.

[01:05:56]>> Yeah. Nothing wrong with taking gains.

[01:05:58]Nobody went broke from taking gains.

[01:06:00]>> Absolutely. Um just a question. Is insider selling always a bad thing?

[01:06:05]Well, not if you're a politician, but otherwise >> it's it's not though. like uh let me just go to air test systems like recently air test systems and actually saw a question on VG insider sales too.

[01:06:18]Um a it's very common for stocks that have not traded high for a while when they go on a big run for insiders to sell they want to make money too. And for a lot of companies the bulk of their compensation is from uh shares. And so there's many reasons to sell. There's only one reason to buy. So insider sales can be bearish. You know, if you see like the CEO or CFO dump almost all their position without really any explanation and it's not because the stock is like way up and they're taking gains or they just got some RSUs and they need to pay taxes, that might be bearish. Uh versus if you see um you like what we saw with air test systems where these these seauite people were taking gains in the 50s and 60s and we're up over 100 now. So, it's it's not uniformly bearish. Uh, and then there's companies that have certain officers like CTO's that every single time they get a chance, they're just going to sell.

[01:07:19]>> Yeah. Or like CEOs that post provocative emojis and then dump on their retail base when the stocks.

[01:07:28]Yeah. Ex. Exactly.

[01:07:29]>> Real stories for both. Yeah. So, uh, all right, Travis, what are your thoughts on SanDisk? Yeah, like I said, I think this is going to go up and to the right. I don't know if it's going to be a straight lineup. I think that largely depends on the macro, but I think 6 months from now or 12 months from now, this is going to be higher than it is today. At some point, it's going to cool down, but I think we're still, you know, in the earlyish innings of this story playing out. And I could see SanDisk continuing to benefit from this.

[01:08:06]>> Sorry, figure just posted their earnings. So, this is just a snapshot.

[01:08:10]They had the call actually tomorrow. Uh, but I wanted to show this. Uh, 113% year-over-year growth in their consumer loan marketplace, which is their main product. Uh, 133% increase is just insane. Um, their net revenue increased 98% year-over-year. Uh, looked like a step forward, but again, if you look at this, they We don't want them to plateau. We want them to keep going up.

[01:08:33]Uh but I think they're positioned well for that. And yeah, net income is up immensely as well. So, looks like really good results. Market is respecting it so far. After hours, we're over 40 bucks.

[01:08:43]Um probably deserves to be a little bit higher, but we'll have to see.

[01:08:47]Interesting.

[01:08:47]>> Yeah, I mean, >> good numbers.

[01:08:49]>> To post 100% year-over-year and then to be up 4% in after hours is kind of a slap in the face, but uh it's expectations for you.

[01:08:58]>> Yeah, we we'll see. uh you know the market re might react differently uh once they have the full conference call and then the market's open as well but it's they're they're to be fair they're not making uh any chips and they're certainly not in silicon platonics so who cares not really but >> all right let's continue Q&A uh not bought again are these institutions just for trading a negative cost to borrow Noto bought again. Are these two buys are these institutional purchases just for trading?

[01:09:36]Yeah, I think you have to determine which instit like it depends because some institutions buy on behalf of being a custodian um because they're just holding client funds essentially versus like a hedge fund for example buying a position because they have a thesis behind it as to you know whether the stock is going to go up or down in the in the short term. And then you also have others that are buying to hedge against the massive short position that they might have.

[01:10:07]>> Yeah. And if you're asking no, like that's the other side of the uh insider sells are sometimes bearish, sometimes they're neutral, sometimes they're not bad at all. Um insider buys are just always bullish.

[01:10:20]>> Yes, >> there's only one reason to buy. And CEOs are not the type of guy that are like, you know what, I'll throw, you know, $500,000 into this stock and if it goes to zero, it goes to zero. They they don't do that. Sometimes that happens.

[01:10:34]It's no guarantee, but man, it's always bullish. It it's also bullish because like think of it you know if you if it's a company that you're working at or you're working with and you can see the inner workings of the company you can see the collaboration you can see the you know motivation of people and the speed at which they get work done.

[01:10:55]You wouldn't put your personal money behind it if it was like oh my god this company is like the worst company. Like I this is how do they work like this?

[01:11:04]This is crazy. Like I I wouldn't put my personal money behind half the companies I've worked with. I still do the job because I get paid to do the job and I try to do my best in spite of everything, but like some companies you can see it and you're like excited to go to work because you're like, "Oh, there's a real future here." And others you're just not. And so to have an insider now put their money, whoever that is, whether it's CEO or anybody else, put their money behind that company, not only is it a vote for their internal agency to direct positive change in that company, but it's also a vote of the inner workings of that company being something that inspires bullishness across that executive.

[01:11:45]>> Absolutely.

[01:11:48]BMR moved up despite flat ETH and BMR only buying 26,000 tokens. Thoughts? Um, >> yeah, go ahead, >> Mnaf. Uh, I I think that, you know, the the reality is they've been so close and under often that it makes it very difficult for them to be able to buy a meaningful amount of Ethereum unless they were diluting below MNAV. So, if they came out this week and they had bought a h 100,000, uh, I would be very concerned because I'm like, okay, how I love it if it's not really under MNAB, but but how? Uh, so, um, they may be slowing down even more unless we can get that MNAB back up.

[01:12:32]Yeah, I mean look in the short term BMR and Ethereum are going to move, you know, hopefully proportionately, but we've seen for many weeks that they haven't. Some weeks BMR moves higher than uh than ETH and some weeks it moves lower than ETH. And like it's not going to be a perfect one to one.

[01:12:52]I just think it's funny that it was on the same day that they also announced 26,000 ETH tokens cuz like that's also a kind of an interesting strategy of them magically saying, "Oh, we're going to buy way less because you know we want to hit our goal by the end of 2026. Oh, by the way, like Ethereum is going to go to 12,000 by the end of this year." It's like, dude, which what? Like it's like me saying, "I think Nebus is going to go to 600 this year, but I'm going to stop my purchases because there's other priorities that I have in the market." You'd be like, "Okay, like how confident are you in that price target?" This is the exact same thing. It just doesn't make sense.

[01:13:42]How do we end tomorrow, Roy?

[01:13:47]Uh, I think we'll be fine on Tuesday.

[01:13:52]>> Yeah.

[01:13:56]>> CBI is tomorrow.

[01:13:59]Think so.

[01:14:02]>> And why is it taco Tuesday? Is there some macro decision tomorrow?

[01:14:06]>> Uh, I I think it's related to the ceasefire at Hormuse. So, >> Oh, >> yeah, it is tomorrow. um in the morning of course so it it's the expectation is 3.7% year-over-year increase up from 3.3% in March uh of course energy is the big factor there so I think the market at least right now because it's been willing to overlook the hormuse situation I don't see a reason unless it comes meaningfully higher and the core is meaningfully higher especially um for the CPI than 3.7 uh I doubt that it'll dump or if it does it won't very for very long at Um, could be wrong though. We'll see.

[01:14:49]>> Yes, Habibi call Trumpy tomorrow is the perfect explanation. I totally understand everything you just said. And um, yeah, maybe we dump. We'll see.

[01:15:02]Uh, Curtis here says, "Doubled my SoFi position by selling puts now needing to flip to selling calls for cash flow.

[01:15:09]Sell puts weekly, monthly, or longer.

[01:15:14]I generally will stick to two weeks or one month. I mean, I started off with just doing weeklies, but with companies like SoFi where they're not that lucrative, like there's not a lot of um time value.

[01:15:33]Generally speaking, a longer time frame is better. Um, but a company like Nebus, for example, like, oh boy, it can move 50 bucks in the course of a week, if not more. And so you would have to be careful with something like that. And so it really depends on on, you know, what are you getting for how much time you're locking up that capital, I would say.

[01:15:58]>> I think that's fair.

[01:15:59]>> All right, I'm going to let you answer this one and I'll be right back. Right.

[01:16:04]>> Why did I miss out on Google? Um, ironically, I have a a thing that I wanted to show, but uh, Tevis is uh, not going to let me share it. So, no, I'm just kidding.

[01:16:14]>> All right, share it. Share it. What is it?

[01:16:15]>> All right. All right. Let me I was just going to throw you under the bus and now you're not going to let me.

[01:16:21]So, I see how it is. See, it's weird.

[01:16:23]I'm not sure why my fiscal AI is saying the So, it's related to Huh. Am I not logged in? I guess I'm not logged in. It's related to this right here. Uh when I was looking at Google, this was a year and a half ago or so. Uh what I was seeing was a lot of uh pressure specifically on the uh ads model that they have. Google has built and made its name on building around and capturing a lot of the search revenue over 90% and as a result like the large chunk of the revenue about half is just specifically that product line. And so my thesis at the time, which proved to be early and somewhat wrong as well, was that search is going to deteriorate faster than these new product lines and these new revenue lines are going to come on board and that they might have some massive capex that that the market doesn't like. And so Google is not unattractive, but it could be cheaper and it probably will go that way. Is wrong. Gemini has pursued a lot of market share, which I didn't necessarily expect. And then on the other side there there has been some deterioration on the search front and even whereas last year most bulls push back against it they're like no not really and I was like dude all they've done is basically just charge more but uh you can see actually the number of impressions the cost per click change is what's changing page click change you know they they talked about like a mix shift between what was happening with the the uh AI synopsis and everything but now you can see the deterioration but it's slower than expected and everything else about Google I said at the time I really liked I like their positioning and if all the rest was just a standalone company I'd probably buy it. So yeah, I just I I overappreciated the deterioration in their existing business and underappreciated the acceleration the other business. It's kind of like Wix but the opposite where I'm like hey base 44 I'm really bullish on and I don't think that their mainline Wix business is going to deteriorate as rapidly as many people expect. So I'm positioned for that one. Um hopefully it'll work out like Google as far as it going up and to the right.

[01:18:32]>> Yeah. And uh speaking of of Google, we have 35 questions bookmarked. Shall we cap it here, Roy? What do you think?

[01:18:43]>> I think we can cap it at a Google worth of questions, which is basically going to take the rest of our lives. But no, let's cap it here instead.

[01:18:51]>> Okay. Um, so maybe I'll just put a big beard here.

[01:18:57]Yeah, 34 questions. All right, no more questions. Question and period is question and answer period is over.

[01:19:08]Um, as you can see, my brain is like going 0.5x speed that I Let's see. What do you think of Meta here? It's cheap is what I think. And I think it's going to go back up and it's going to be beloved at some point in the future, but not today.

[01:19:30]>> I'm rooting against it, but I think you're right.

[01:19:33]>> Okay, cool. Uh, is Figure or Circle a better blockchain play? This is all you, man.

[01:19:40]>> Yeah, I had to pull up their earnings because I hadn't looked. Uh, I think they reported Yeah, they reported here today. Um, was it the morning? Either way, I've got this the report right here real quick Q&A, so we're not going to go through this like in great detail, but I think you can look at it for yourself and see. Um, so we just showcased 100% revenue growth. Um, they're they're printing money. They're profitable and figure it's not a bad company. Uh, USDC is great. Uh, you know, they've grown that as far as its ecosystem, and they'll certainly be helped by clarity, uh, whatever form passes. But you look at their total revenue, it's 20% up. That's that's good. Uh net income is up uh actually down a little bit. Uh adjusted EBA grew up 24%. There's other good things happening, but there's a couple of problems with Circle. Uh one is where they're trading. They're not they're not cheap. I don't think they're cheap at all. If you're trading this, like you could probably make some good money on it because it is very volatile. Uh but if you want it as a long-term hold, I don't think that they're going to perform as well as Figure. Now figure is positioned more on the lending front specifically the platform. Uh and so if there we get in a scenario where there's a lot of consumer stress uh we might see a slowdown as far as helocks because of rates there's a number of things but the other thing too is circle doesn't circle owns basically half of their own revenue uh with their agreement with Coinbase.

[01:21:05]If you are very bullish on USDC itself, you would just invest in Coinbase because Coinbase makes more money on USDC than Circle does, which is crazy.

[01:21:16]So, I think that Figure is a better play. Um, I would rate Coinbase as a better play than Circle. And Circle is not bad by any means, but yeah, that's just kind of where I'd rank it for this pricing. If it's trading at half its value, I'd maybe have a different answer.

[01:21:40]I'm planning all hymns. What about you?

[01:21:43]>> Uh, no.

[01:21:46]>> Uh, do you guys think Sandisk will be 2K next week? I think it's going to be 2K.

[01:21:49]I don't know about next week. Um, eventually I think it >> Yeah, it's hard to say when it's in price discovery and it's running like this. uh you you could say huge swings like it could be 1,500 or 2,000 next week and I don't think either result would surprise me, >> right?

[01:22:09]Uh what do you guys think about Netflix and Meta at these prices? They're cheap.

[01:22:16]Did you see Telus is building AI data centers in Canada and BC specifically?

[01:22:20]That's tax dollars at work. Tell us last quarter's earnings a dividend though.

[01:22:24]Yeah, dude. I don't invest in anything in Canada. Um, if I if I had to for something public, it would be Shopify and that's pretty much it.

[01:22:35]>> Maybe seller, >> maybe.

[01:22:37]>> Or do you not do biotech at all?

[01:22:39]>> I don't.

[01:22:41]>> Okay.

[01:22:41]>> I was just saying maybe to be nice.

[01:22:45]>> Why won't you guys buy into corweave?

[01:22:47]Because I'm already fully invested into Nebas.

[01:22:51]>> Yeah. When you have the best, why settle, you know? There you go.

[01:22:56]>> I mean, I really do think that not that Cororeweave I think is bad. And will Nebius overtake Cororeweave? I think the answer is probably, but it's going to probably take years as well. Corweave has a nice uh head start. The differentiation I think comes from the Neocloud, which Nebus continues to improve. But for that to really be seen, I think we need a couple of years.

[01:23:17]>> Yeah. Do you guys believe Nebius will overtake? Oh, did you just answer this?

[01:23:21]>> Yeah.

[01:23:22]>> Sorry.

[01:23:24]um eventually if they execute well is the answer. When screening stocks, what's better? Debt to equity or debt to capital of most recent quarter.

[01:23:35]>> It depends and it depends on what stage of growth the stock is in.

[01:23:39]>> So like >> I I think like debt is not necessarily a bad thing. You you can look at it with VG that's coming up for earnings tomorrow. And no, I did see a question.

[01:23:49]Am I covering that live? I'm not. I'm I'm traveling. So, um, but, uh, they've taken on a lot of debt. They they're a capital intense project, and it's a very well understood thing in oil and gas that that's kind of the model of the way that you do these things, and you structure these long-term uh, agreements around that so you know exactly what your cash flow is. There'll be times when you're better, there's times that you're worse, but you can repay that without an issue. Um, so like that kind of company and that type of debt, you know, some people are like, I don't I don't like companies that have that level of debt. Well, I mean, it's it's gas. What you see is what you get. There are other companies, and I actually had a post on this today. Um, I'll just I'll show you it rather than um tell you about it. But Chris uh Patel posted about a few different stocks that he saw as an opportunity. And he he's a contrarian. He loves to be a contrarian.

[01:24:44]Um I think in one in particular uh he he said ferve was interesting and the problem is so this is ferve this is basically looking at their cash flow over the last 12 months and this is on an annual basis in the yellow here it's a free cash flow and so they're expected to generate a little bit less than this going into 2026 uh 3.8 8 uh billion or so. But uh the reality is uh Chris Chris said Fiserf added a tremendous amount of debt as a onetime thing and they did in 2019. But the problem is the green number here is uh long-term debt that they've added and you can see out of the last three years they've continued to add. The reason why in purple right here that's a repurchase of common shares. they are repurchasing a much larger amount of their shares than uh what they can actually afford as far as a cash flow. And then in orange, you also have the net issuance or repayments in this case short-term debt.

[01:25:39]Some of that's coming due and they're having to refinance things at higher rates as well. Fiserve is not going to zero. It's not dying, but they have, I believe, 27 or 28 billion in debt. And when you do that, you continue to get deeper and deeper in the hole. and their earnings growth is like uh yeah the last three quarters of earnings growth add up to negative.5%.

[01:26:03]That's bad debt. That's not debt that you want to have on a company. I'm not saying Fer is uninvestable but you have to understand okay are they actually deploying that to further their aims and ambitions? Are they growing rapidly? Are they going to be able to repay this debt back at one point? Or is growth deteriorating to the point where they have negative growth, their free cash flow is starting to run dry, and they're doing stupid things like buying back their stock at ridiculously elevated levels previously, not not so much now.

[01:26:34]Uh that with money that they couldn't really afford, which now makes even less sense. That's >> Yeah.

[01:26:46]Um, do you think that BMR is starting to decouple from ETH price movement? Pretty sure Tanner mentioned this. Like yes, but I think some of that is deliberate. And I think what we're going to see over the next coming months is also going to be deliberate. For example, BMR, you know, some people were celebrating today that they're buying less Ethereum because they attribute that to less dilution. And I don't think that's deterministic. I think that you could have a case where they dilute just as much to raise cash when they're buying a fraction of the Ethereum that they were buying before and they just allocate that into moonshots. I think that eventually BMR is going to allocate more into the AI trade and as a result it will eventually start to decouple from Ethereum. So really the delta there that's tangible and sustainable is going to be their moonshots.

[01:27:40]Um eventually if they are decoupled from Ethereum over the course of one two three four weeks whatever that's not a big deal. It's just, you know, price movement, but for them to sustainably be decoupled to the upside, it really is a byproduct of the quality of their moonshots.

[01:28:03]Uh, Wise shifted their primary listing from London to the NASDAQ today. Roy, any thoughts on Wise as a business?

[01:28:12]>> Yeah, so as a product, I love it. as a business, it's mostly international remittances and it just it's not a high margin product. There's a lot of players in disruption in the space. I think Wise will be just fine. Um, but I I've not looked enough in the the business as an investment standpoint to give like a deep answer, but you know, it's it's it's kind of like if you're just a pure payment service processor, the you're you're in a space that will see more competition, not less over the years. And so you're going to see some compression of margins and I would just prefer to not be in a company uh in that environment even if it's a very good one likewise. Could be wrong.

[01:28:51]I've not looked detailed into it but just quick answer.

[01:28:54]>> Yeah. Uh are you both holding your SoFi target from the beginning of the year?

[01:28:59]>> Yeah.

[01:29:00]>> Yeah. I just I keep it there regardless.

[01:29:02]So even though it looks ridiculous and it's not going to get there, but that's okay.

[01:29:08]Uh >> which of the three is the big winner on Clarity Act passing Sofi Hood or BMR?

[01:29:12]BMR I would say like SoFi's gonna benefit Hood I'm sure will too to some degree on stable coin.

[01:29:19]So Sofi would benefit more than Hood I would say as a business or as a stock because Hood is closer >> well >> he just said Hood instead of Robin Hood.

[01:29:31]So >> I mean from a perception point of view I would say Hood is more closely tied to the crypto trade in general. So like I could see people like you know buying up Hood as a result of the Clarity Act passing. I think fundamentally because of their stable coin offerings SoFi is going to benefit more from as a business but I think BMR is going to benefit the most because it's a pure play on Ethereum.

[01:29:56]>> Yeah, there there's a strong coalition uh uh correlation coefficient uh between Robin Hood and Bitmine. not Bitmine, uh, Bitcoin, uh, that we also saw back in 2022 and probably about twothirds of the way through 2023, which was incredibly strong. Um, that has actually come back.

[01:30:16]It diverged for a long time in in the previous uh, cycle, and I think that that's going to play out again. But, you know, as far as uh, the stocks, I would definitely say probably BMR most uh, just from a stock point. uh same thing that you said but long-term fundamentally as a business like SoFi is immensely helped we talked about that before uh with SoFi USD with big business banking like they have crypto ambitions but the hard thing is businesses are going to wait for more regulatory certainty to be able to uh make that pivot so the businesses like SoFi the businesses like figure those ones will do very very well in that environment I think Yeah.

[01:31:01]Uh, are you both drinking Celsius? I hope so. Just started a position. I am Roy >> the competition.

[01:31:07]>> Yeah.

[01:31:08]>> Yeah. Invest in Costco. I mean, it's No, I'm just kidding.

[01:31:11]>> I mean, wouldn't be a bad advice.

[01:31:14]>> Like, yeah, it's one of those companies where like Walmart, like it's expensive, but they're going to be around for a while, and AI is probably not going to disrupt people getting a$150 hot dog.

[01:31:26]Yeah. Uh, what can't So Sofi do without the Clarity Act P? Like double negative.

[01:31:34]Um, I mean like what are they doing right now? It's not passed right now.

[01:31:36]It's the same, you know, like >> yeah, there's nothing from a regulatory standpoint that they're doing right now or that they want to do that they can't head into. The problem is again their aim is for the most part other than what's happening in the event platform and the remittance is businesses and businesses want don't want to make a decision where um well okay this is how most businesses think is a business leader would rather not take an opportunity and miss it then take one and then have egg on his face because regulation or something changed and they had to walk back that ambition. Now it does depend on the type of business. It depends on the type of leader but I mean most of who notto is positioning the SoFi USD for are payments companies or uh banks and as a result and also businesses as well and these are more mature. So they're going to want more regulatory certainty and so the biggest thing is that they can't do without this is scale effectively once this is passed whatever form. That's the nice way that they've positioned themselves. They're gonna be just fine. So >> yeah. Um Jack, thank you for the 10 bucks. Says, "We are just we are all just killing time until Wednesday morning. Nebulous earnings. I'm just nodding and smiling at everyone in my life. Until then, nothing else matters."

[01:33:03]Jackaloupe Craig. Dude, if your name is actually legitimately Jackaloupe, that is a sick name.

[01:33:10]But uh yeah, I agree. I agree. Nebius earnings is going to be an interesting day for all of us. And uh if this thing goes where I think it can go, then it's going to be a good day, Jack.

[01:33:27]>> And and don't be surprised if we see a pullback like that. The analysts are not good at projecting the revenue for it.

[01:33:33]And Alos will do what Alos do.

[01:33:35]>> I think they're gonna crush the numbers this time around. I think a lot of the analysts will have right-sized their forecasts from last time like generally speaking analysts you'll notice for Nebius Roy are more optimistic like then like for SoFi for example it's just the analysts will look at it as a glass half empty type of um you know company even though the management is consistently saying glass half full type things versus Nebius the analysts look at it glass half full and if you don't believe me, go look at the price targets. Like Bank of America just raised it again to over $200 and the consensus is like 180 bucks for I guess that sounds bearish now at 180 bucks, but uh >> yeah.

[01:34:19]>> Yeah, it didn't three weeks ago. So >> yes. Um all right, let's move on. Uh could this be a sell the news event?

[01:34:29]Clarity Act passing, I believe he means with BMR.

[01:34:33]>> I don't think crypto has rallied that much uh from it. So probably not, but like it's a ways away from passing. So we could well see that this become that uh in a rally into that.

[01:34:48]Uh what's your SoFi price target of year? I think mine was 45.

[01:34:54]>> Mine was higher.

[01:34:58]>> Uh okay, 45 and 45 plus 451. Uh, are we buying Tom Lee's prediction of a market pullback 10 to 15% in the next two to four months due to the testing of the new Fed? No, not buying that.

[01:35:11]>> No, I don't think so, >> dude. 15%. Are you crazy? The like this entire Iran like you know side quest that we went on was 7% of the market falling and you want to do double that?

[01:35:26]Not happening.

[01:35:28]Do you guys regret not holding Tesla on days like today? This might be the breakout.

[01:35:35]>> Yeah.

[01:35:35]>> Yeah. I heard this morning that it was running up and you know it's higher than when I sold the last bit of my position, but >> it wasn't a meaningful position for me um for a while. So >> So it started off in the red. Yeah, I'm just looking at the chart. It went down to 416. Do you know why it rallied up like 30 bucks, Roy? is because rumor came out that Trump was taking Elon to China and I think there's also like rumblings right now that they're going to ban Chinese uh EVs altogether.

[01:36:10]Uh so yeah, I mean I don't think >> I'm not sure that if I was a shareholder I'd really like Elon going. Uh, but I mean it's not a >> it's not necessarily a bad thing, but like the push back could be if they do end up banning that and they look and they see uh Elon right there there there's a large operation of Teslas in Shanghai. I don't think they want to get rid of that, but they could make things challenging. I don't know. I I'd rather not uh see Tesla become a pawn in that international game.

[01:36:46]>> Yeah.

[01:36:50]And I think maybe that's why Jensen's not going. He's he's tried to play both sides pretty carefully. So, >> do you think it's Jensen's choice that he's not going or do you think Trump just didn't bring Jensen?

[01:37:02]>> I mean, if if Trump wanted him there and he was willing, I I I I would be surprised that he wouldn't want him, you know? Um, >> yeah, >> he's he's been pretty favorable towards uh Trump, the administration, the United States as well. But, um, yeah.

[01:37:21]All right, let's move on. Are you guys circle investors? Thoughts on how Thursday's clarity news might affect price action? We're not circle investors and we talked about clarity at about 36 minute mark.

[01:37:34]>> Yeah.

[01:37:35]Uh Roy, what are your thoughts on the continued massive insider sells on Venture Global?

[01:37:41]>> Yeah, there's many reasons to sell, only one reason to buy. So, I don't usually get spooked with insider sales. I don't see it differently with BG. Uh it's a long long-term project, a long-term holding. It's gas. It's pretty simple. So, and and like they IPOed I think it was January last year. So you will tend to see that with companies uh that IPO, you know, they can't for the first 6 months usually, but after that 180 days pass and they're past a lockup period, that's when they can start selling. And if it's a case where a stock did not perform well in those last 6 months, you'll see fewer sells, but when things start running up higher, which BG has done quite well, uh you'll see some people take advantage of that. There's it's same same thing as for us as shareholders. It's not uncommon.

[01:38:35]>> Yeah. Um Tom is asking any predictions for Robin Hood's April metrics release on Wednesday.

[01:38:42]>> Uh I hadn't thought about it too much.

[01:38:44]Um but uh it's one of those yet another thing that I'm going to be missing because I'm traveling. So um like the the biggest thing to keep an eye on I think is just the volumes as far as crypto. That's been that was a one very weak spot this last quarter. There's a couple others as well. Um, I would rather not see more softness and I think April was decent enough. We saw some rebound in crypto and also some volumes and so hopefully we see that with Robin Hood. But yeah, with the monthly metrics I uh I usually don't like have any specific predictions or thoughts other than what I'm looking for.

[01:39:26]Yeah, >> I did write some cash secured puts in uh for Robin Hood at 70, so wouldn't mind if those fill, but they might not.

[01:39:37]>> Um, sounds good. Matthew Johnson asks, "Roy, when are you turning the BMR hat around and rotating the pickle ball paddle?

[01:39:48]What's your going price? Going market price on on uh >> 100 bucks for the the paddle to rotate.

[01:39:55]But yeah, the BMR hat I uh I had forgotten that I put it backwards until I saw Matthew's comment. So there we go.

[01:40:03]We rectified it. It's not because I'm upset with them. I can't even remember why I turned it around before, but yeah.

[01:40:11]Although if the stock price starts going down to this and we're down like 4%, then I might just turn it upside down at that point and see how it does.

[01:40:19]>> Yeah. I mean, yeah, turn >> turn it in all kinds of directions.

[01:40:25]Whatever makes the stock go up, man.

[01:40:27]>> That's right.

[01:40:30]>> Uh Matthew Johnson with yet another question. Follow up on the first question. Would you take profits on your cornerstone position? I'm assuming you would be taking profits if you have a full position. Yes, the same answer.

[01:40:42]Holds. It doesn't matter what I hold. I think if you're up, you want to lock a little bit of those gains just as um a morale. Like if I lock some gains and I sell a quarter of my Nebus position at 215 and Nebius ends the year at 400, will I really be sad about that? I mean like maybe but I don't think I'll really regret it because like you're already multiplies your money and I've been in so many instances where it's gone the other direction. And so I think it's like it's the same thing that I was telling my cousin today around the hymns. I was like dude just sell half before earnings and then if it goes up 10% after earnings like you won't feel as bad but if it goes down 10% after earnings like you won't feel as bad. So I I think it's the same concept.

[01:41:28]>> Yep.

[01:41:33]Uh, anyone know what's so magical about owning 5% of ETH? Is 4.3% not magical?

[01:41:38]>> Not at all. Nope. 5% is though.

[01:41:42]>> Yeah, it's it's just an arbitrary number, Jay. But it's it's not large enough where they can influence the network and and mess up with the supply demand equilibrium, but it's it's large enough of a chunk where they can be the biggest player in the space and they can maximize their sort of yield that they're earning. And um I think people wouldn't bat an eye at 1% or 2%. But if they were 10%, people might be like, "Oh, like is Ethereum even that compelling?" because one player can just dump on the market and like be like the, you know, the the mount gauss for for ETH, right? Um where they can manipulate the market because they own such a huge chunk. 5% is sort of in that sweet spot middle ground. They can have a serious vote when that comes up. Uh they're the biggest player in the space and they also get a ton of money through yield >> and they will increase it above 5%. I don't think they're going to 10%. Tom did talk about going as high as that.

[01:42:43]Um, >> yeah, >> I'd be surprised if we see more than like six or seven.

[01:42:48]>> Yeah. Uh, I'm not streaming VG. Roy, I don't think is streaming VG either.

[01:42:54]>> I can't. Yeah.

[01:42:56]>> Uh, Teis watch him in our recap video.

[01:42:58]Thank you for that. Um, do you think Tom is slowing down buys because he thinks there would be a big dip, so he doesn't want to allocate all his cash right now?

[01:43:07]I don't know, man. I mean like Tom's being a little bit cy around why he's slowing down his buys. Um I think if he provided a tangible reason then that would have made sense. Maybe it might be like so there's two theories that come to my mind. Number one is the cash position that they have whereby like he just wants to chill a little bit so that he can build up the cash position again and have more leverage from that perspective.

[01:43:35]The second is he wants to be more opportunistic and doesn't want to like move the price upwards and he's not seeing a lot of opportunities to buy it, you know, on on dark pools or offchain or whatever and he he'll be forced to buy in the open market.

[01:43:52]And then maybe the third is like, hey, he he sees an acquisition on the horizon or some other moonshot that he wants to bet on and he wants to focus on that instead. I think his actions are largely going to depend.

[01:44:07]They're they're largely going to determine what happens. Like his his following actions over the next couple weeks are going to give us a hint as to what his reasoning was to lower this in the first place.

[01:44:22]Uh topline growth rate for Nvidia next year, Roy.

[01:44:25]>> Yeah, I had to pull it up just to remind myself of what that projections were.

[01:44:29]And of course, Jensen during GTC talked about the one trillion amount. Of course, it's over two years. Um, I don't see any reason why, honestly, that they might not see another we might not see another double. Um, if we're looking at January 2027's report, it it may be like 85 90% that's fine, but it doesn't look like the uh there's going to be a cliff that it's going to fall off on the capex uh spin from these other hyperscalers.

[01:44:58]Uh, looks like the opposite. So, I really like it's one of those videos that I've wanted to do for a little while and we're actually in the middle of it. So, I'm like, well, maybe I'll just let it play out. But, there's a lot of reasons that look like Nvidia is going to continue to go up quite a bit. Uh, probably into earnings, through earnings. Anything can happen during earnings as well. But a lot of the stuff that uh was a hangover the prior quarter, even though they were very good results, is not there for this quarter. It's a very different environment to be reporting into. So there's a reason why it's flirting again with alltime highs that it hit a week and a half ago. So >> yep.

[01:45:43]Um yeah, dude, when does Nvidia report?

[01:45:48]Next week.

[01:45:49]>> Um it's not this week. Let's see. Yeah, may maybe next week, I think.

[01:46:02]>> It's always later than I expect. Okay, that's >> Yeah, 20th of May, Ben says.

[01:46:08]>> Yeah, that's correct.

[01:46:10]>> Uh 470 October micro uncovered calls.

[01:46:14]keep milking premium as long as I can by rolling out or just give up and see if it comes back in between now and then.

[01:46:25]I mean, do like I think it's worth it to just sit on them. Like there's nothing you can really do. Like unless you sell the covered calls and then sell the shares immediately to get out of the position like you're in it until October.

[01:46:43]If Micron comes down, then that's great.

[01:46:47]If Micron goes to, you know, 1,500, like you're still in the same position you were today.

[01:46:55]>> Yeah. The only thing that I'll add, and and I agree with you, like, you know, it's fine if you're not sure what to do.

[01:47:00]You got plenty of time in those. You just let the market help you figure out what to do, and it will over time. Um, the other thing that I'll say, and I've had this happen to me before, too, where that money that is allocated right now that's underwater with the covered calls, if you're seeing this screaming by, let's say, a month out from now of a stock that you've always wanted, it's fallen to that range, rather than hope that it's going to be there in October, don't be afraid to early release those, buying back uh the covered call, which uh is not the most fun thing to do, and then selling the shares on the market.

[01:47:34]Uh but like it's obviously like the best case scenario is that is not going to go anywhere for you. It's just going to stay at that fixed amount. But that's that's the only thing that I would possibly you know if I was in your shoes and this is not financial advice. I don't I don't know your situation. I just know mine. But I've done this before where if I have very deep in the money covered calls and I'm okay letting them go away, I'll I'll let things wait out. Uh, but if I see a screaming by, I'll go ahead and just exit that early and use the money.

[01:48:12]Yep.

[01:48:14]Uh, let's see. Next question. Do you guys think that the BMR price is starting to decoup? I think we answered this.

[01:48:20]>> We answered.

[01:48:21]>> He might have just asked it twice, which is a big fauxpaw on this podcast. Um, >> speaking Frenches, too. So, TWW is at 109 but has a price target of 150. Are you interested? I don't know TWW. What's TWW?

[01:48:38]>> TWW.

[01:48:41]Trade web markets. I don't know that one. Yeah.

[01:48:46]>> Yeah. I've never heard in my life.

[01:48:49]>> Yeah. Sorry. Not something I'm familiar with.

[01:48:55]>> Yeah. As far as like the price target though, I'll say there are a lot of names out there that have very high price targets. A price target is not a reason to buy or even sell a stock. Uh make sure you do your own research. If you're looking at it and you think personally that there's a legit chance of it go, you know, up another 40% or so, great. You know, buy that. Um don't let analyst price targets influence things for you.

[01:49:22]A lot of them, and it's probably like 85 to 90%, all they do is, okay, it's not all they do. Most they do of what they do for the price target is just look at where the price is and then they'll change their price target primarily based on the price of the stock. There are some that don't do that, but u it's actually pretty rare. That's why you'll oftentimes see even if a stock even if a company is performing very very well if the stock price has been going down you'll see people lower price targets.

[01:49:54]Case in point SoFi.

[01:49:59]Yes.

[01:50:05]Okay. Whimo versus Tesla thoughts. Ruby is asking.

[01:50:11]I think both are going to do fine. Ruby, like if if you're going to get that macro backdrop like either company's expecting, the market is going to be big enough for both players. And I think the competition heating up across both of those cohorts from a, you know, how many cities are they expanding to, what's the radius, like that's going to be good to spur both parties forward.

[01:50:36]>> Yeah, I think both are probably winners.

[01:50:38]Uh, yeah, same thing.

[01:50:41]Um, Big Beard wants you to do his homework for him, Roy.

[01:50:45]>> Yeah, I don't uh I don't think so. I mean, like, you can look it up uh and find that uh elsewhere, though. Um, and right now, for some reason, it's not showing me logged in or or something. I don't know why have these numbers are not reporting, but um so yeah, uh it has gone up. Institutions have been buying, so that's good.

[01:51:11]All right, that was the last of our questions and we are at 1 hour and 51 minutes. We might stay for another nine minutes and cap it at two hours.

[01:51:21]>> I'm getting like saw an app 111 question uh which I wouldn't mind answering. Um, >> yeah.

[01:51:29]>> And well, anyway, it was just a question asking if we liked App 11, uh, A. Um, I do. Uh, I I think that if I was going to invest in one of these advertising companies over Zeta uh, and over uh, the Trade Desk and a lot of others, probably Apple would be the company that I'd go to. I think it's a very high quality company and they they're their model for the most part is real human eyeballs rather than worrying about okay is is it just AI agents that are interacting with this? Is it somebody something that looks like a human but it's not really?

[01:52:04]That's not going to do anything for the ad spend. Um what they what they where they position their ads, they're for human eyeballs with rare exceptions. So I do like that. Um but yeah, I've not done a deep dive in app loving. um probably a year. So, make sure you do your own homework there.

[01:52:26]>> Yeah. Um this user is asking, "Do you guys think Nebius dilutes this year if capex for 26 is funded?"

[01:52:37]>> Yes.

[01:52:41]>> Yes.

[01:52:41]>> You know what's not funded is 27 capex.

[01:52:45]>> Yeah. I don't I don't know, man. like in 27 they're going to be higher and I also think they have the Click House possibility like when Click House raises another round probably by the end of this year like they're going to be looking to possibly sell one of their subsidiaries in 27 is is my guess.

[01:53:02]Um I don't see them diluting a whole lot more this year. Maybe they might one more time, but I just I don't see it like definitely not to the same degree that Iron is. Um, maybe once more, but I again I don't I don't see more than once or or a large amount because I think like they have a lot of optionality for 27 if they wanted to do that.

[01:53:27]>> Yeah, for sure.

[01:53:32]>> Yeah, that's that's kind of nice that they don't have to. But like if if what plays out that you you're expecting as far as a share price, let's say they hit $300 later this year, they should probably dilute there. Take advantage of that premium. How can I send you a communication I had with Shift 4 CEO? I don't have X. So if you go to either of our profiles on YouTube in the info tab, it'll show you the email that we have associated with that YouTube account.

[01:54:01]You can just email us. Uh people have done it in the past and I check that email periodically. It's the YouTube channel email. So you can email us if you don't have X. That's perfectly fine.

[01:54:14]>> Yeah, I would love to hear that. Uh include me, please.

[01:54:19]>> Uh what's my new unreleased price target on Nebus? I don't have one for you guys yet. Like I said in my last video, I'm going to make one for you guys once we hit 200, but until then, you'll have to wait.

[01:54:35]Does it make sense? Darius is asking to buy Nebus for 190 and sell covered calls a month out or the same strike price for $24. Jesus. Uh and keep the premium in a month or get in at 166 I guess cashed puts.

[01:54:56]If you're saying 166 through cash puts, I would probably say that's the safer way because you don't know if Nebus is going to go up next month.

[01:55:08]If you're saying I'm going to buy it at 190 because I'm going to get the capital gains plus the premiums for selling covered calls and months out, then I would say um if 190 is a price that you would be happy holding if this thing were to go down, then go for it. But that's sort of like my mental arithmetic. It's like cash skirt puts, you get paid if nothing happens. And if the stock falls, then you're still in a better position than if you just buy straight up at 190 and sell against it.

[01:55:37]>> Yeah, I think that was his question is writing um covered calls or cash accured puts at that strike and getting 24 premium because that's what's 166 would imply. Um I I mean I wouldn't be in a like you do you. I wouldn't be in a position just for the uh options and the options chain itself, but it's a nice tra and uh not neither of those are bad.

[01:56:01]Like the premiums are ridiculous, but you're also selling in earnings, so keep that in mind. Um can you throw up uh MD.33's follow-up comment? Yeah. How why is Chris Patel and Steve more interested in Fiser that and PayPal than they are shift 4? It's insanity to me. It is to me, too. uh you know I was in PayPal obviously before but I'm a growth investor and so I was looking at this as a turnaround play that they'd accelerate growth not the case not what happened pretty terrible earnings as well uh and the market reacted accordingly it wasn't you know it's still undervalued it's cheap fiser is too shift for is actually growing and so if we look at it real quick here and again I don't know why my fiscal AI is being funky but you can see the growth total revenue growth now this is not organic. Uh, so maybe take it, you know, discount it a little bit, but it's growing 30% year-over-year. That's absolutely fantastic. If you look at estimates, I think estimates are a bit lower on the revenue side. Uh, but it's still looking at very meaningful growth.

[01:57:07]Uh, and they are also profitable, too.

[01:57:09]So, I would rather be in this than the others if I had to be in a payments company, but I do think a lot of payments companies are going to be challenged maybe until the end of the year. Um, we'll have to see. Uh, I I don't understand why Fiserf I I get it with PayPal.

[01:57:27]They have no debt or or they have more cash than debt. Viceerve, I'm like, man, what in the world do they do with the debt? It's it's crazy. It always bugs me when a company will, well, not always actually because Wix has done this, but it usually bothers me when a company that's profitable goes deeply into debt to finance a buyback program because I look at it as they can always fall lower. And if they're going into debt, I'd rather have it be something that accelerates their business. That's what Shift Forward has done. That's why they're growing fast, too, is they've handled acquisitions very well. So, yeah.

[01:58:05]Yeah. And shall we wrap there? Roy, what do you think?

[01:58:10]>> No. Uh, we have two more minutes. So, we need to come up with something for two minutes.

[01:58:14]>> All right. Go for it.

[01:58:18]>> You are in BN.

[01:58:20]>> Yeah.

[01:58:20]>> Yeah. Um, I've not uh I I've heard of them, but I've not looked at them in a while. Uh, Broadidge and BN is the one that Yeah. Franklin Resources as well.

[01:58:33]Um, no. I'm not well familiar with them necessary.

[01:58:35]>> Two-minute warning. Commercial time, baby.

[01:58:38]>> Yeah.

[01:58:40]>> Um, is Sam Olman single-handedly bringing down Microsoft?

[01:58:45]>> Yes.

[01:58:47]>> No, but uh, yeah, it is interesting.

[01:58:51]>> Oh, they are tied closely to that and and honestly their their co-pilot is not great. they they are scaling copilot and it just showcasing like Microsoft distribution but it's only one thing that's kind of weighing over Microsoft.

[01:59:06]Uh there's several things and the biggest is that they're caught up in the SAS apocalypse which I don't think that we're fully out of. I mean you see how things reacted today.

[01:59:15]So, >> man, anthropics growth is staggering, Roy. Like, I saw this thing on a log chart and it was it was like tipping upwards from a 45 degree slope and I was just like, dude, how is this possible?

[01:59:34]>> Yeah, >> it's logarithmic. It's not supposed to look like that. Well, >> exactly.

[01:59:39]>> And it was accelerating even further like anthropic.

[01:59:43]Somebody had modeled it out that it was gonna surpass Google's revenue by 2028 if it continued on this trend. And I was like, I'm sorry, what? And it was going to get to like 1.4 trillion in revenue by like 2030 or something. And yeah, I mean, we'll see where it plateaus, if it plateaus, how it plateaus, but so far it definitely looks uh exciting.

[02:00:11]>> Oh, yeah. Yeah, not not as much as Microsoft though. There is a price that I do get in that position, but it's it's not yet. It would have to be lower. Um gre I'll be greedy there.

[02:00:22]>> Are we in service now? No, neither of us are. I don't know if Royy's interested, but uh I'm not really. I >> It's one of like if if I was going to list SAS names that I would be willing to to hold an investment in, uh obviously Palunteer is the number one and that's easy. Uh, Wix I also hold as well and I don't mind holding that. Uh, Service Now is one that there's a price where I wouldn't mind owning it and I'd much prefer it over, you know, like a name like CRM, but I'd rather just own more Palanteer at this price. Even though if you look at the multiples that looks like a crazy thing to say. Um, I'm confident in the mode of Palunteer. I'm less confident in service now, but but I also can look at it and say I I don't think that maybe they're being fully fair. Microsoft, by the way, being the other um SAS company. So, >> yeah, >> Adobe, I don't own Adobe. I think Adobe is more likely to have uh not very much of a moat compared to Service Now, which I think will be stickier.

[02:01:28]Yeah, SAS is just in a tough spot.

[02:01:30]Yeah, I don't want neither Adobe nor service now, quite frankly. And I mean, maybe at some point I might want it as a turnaround play, but I don't think this is the time, man. I uh I think there's a lot more legs into this AI narrative.

[02:01:45]And I've sort of come 180 in saying that, right? Because in the beginning, I was like, oh, you know, like I'm kind of skeptical, like I'm I'm sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop. And now I'm just like, are you seeing some of these numbers? This is uh staggering.

[02:01:59]Yep.

[02:02:01]All right, we have officially made it.

[02:02:03]>> Yes.

[02:02:05]>> It's It's two hours and two minutes.

[02:02:09]>> I've got a flight to get ready for. So, yeah.

[02:02:12]>> Thank you everybody so much for watching Bootleg Weekly on this new format on Mondays. We will continue on Mondays. Uh just as a reminder, we will not have a Friday show uh this Friday. TBD on the weekend if uh if we do uh tune in Wednesday morning bright and early on this channel for Nebius earnings. Uh we will be covering that.

[02:02:38]I will I should say because Royy's going to be traveling. And we will see you all next Monday at 6 PM. Thank you all so much again. Have a good rest of your week.