HOW TO BET on the 2026 NFL Schedule Release

追加: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]If you like to make your NFL games a little bit more interesting, you've come to the right place. It's the Even Money podcast with Ross Tucker and Steve Bezic.

[00:00:11]Yeah, Vegas, baby. Vegas. It is the Even Money Betting Podcast. The number one NFL betting podcast in the galaxy.

[00:00:21]Pretty much ask anybody. We have the results to prove it, which is very exciting. You've come to the right place. We have actual NFL games that are on the schedule, on the calendar, on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can bet right now and Steve will tell you whether or not you should. And then, by the way, by Thursday night, they will all be released. They will all be available on DraftKings Sportsbook.

[00:00:52]Steve will tell you how to take a look at those. And then of course next week we are scheduled to have Warren Sharp.

[00:01:00]He will go over all of the schedule rest disparity travel issues that we believe creates an advantage for us when betting on the NFL today. Not only will Steve give you his thoughts on the games that have been released thus far, which by the way, there's another game coming out every couple hours, but also the importance of schedule difficulty, strength of schedule that is already known and you can look at it based on the season win totals for each team and their opponents. The Steve I reference is Steve Fees. only two-time winner of the super contest. If there's someone that's better in publicly available contests over the last 20 years, we would love to have them on the show. I'd love to see the data and see where they've placed in public contests where everyone can see the results like my guy at Fezixports. I'm at Ross Tucker NFL on social. We are Ross Tucker Pod. Great way to check out some of the clips that we think are the best from the show or check out the other shows like the Ross Tucker Football Podcast. Greg Kosell was amazing today, especially if you're into player props or fantasy football talking about the rookie wide receivers.

[00:02:27]Definitely check out Greg. And we have a ton of people that are watching every week. YouTube.com Ross Tucker NFL and on all the fast channels like Samsung TV Plus and Roku, etc. Steve, let's start with schedule release week. And I guess they're not leaks, they are announcements, but I'm on DraftKings right now.

[00:02:54]And as soon as these games get announced, DraftKings puts them up and they put a line on them. So, I'm seeing the Ners are getting two and a half against the Rams in Australia on September 10th, one of the opening kickoff games. I'm seeing the Cowboys are laying a point and a half against the Giants on opening Sunday night, September 13th.

[00:03:28]The first Thursday night game or the first uh one of the Thursday night games, I think the first Amazon Prime Thursday night game will be the Lions at the Bills. The Bills are laying three in their first game in their new stadium.

[00:03:45]And then we also know on Thanksgiving, the Philadelphia Eagles will be laying a point and a half in Dallas for the late afternoon Thanksgiving Day game. I'm going to give you a blank canvas here, Steve. Uh like we'll start with this part of it. We'll start with the games that have already been announced. Are there is there value here? How should we look at this? Should we be pouncing?

[00:04:15]Should we just wait till we get closer to the season? What do you got?

[00:04:20]>> Well, we don't wait. We look for mistakes against openers. But as a starting point, we got to have power ratings. Well, what happens if you've been like me and you've just been betting baseball every day and the WNBA started and you got the hockey playoffs and the NBA playoffs and you got golf and you got tennis. You probably haven't had time to get your power ratings.

[00:04:39]That's okay. We're going to use the market to help us set power ratings and I'm going to tell you how to do it. This is how we make the sausage. So, if a team has an average schedule and they're lined at eight and a half wins, their 17 games they play, then they're an average team. They have a power rating of a zero. A team like the Dallas Cowboys, they're aligned right now at 8 and a half to nine and a half, but on average nine, so they're half a point better. So they their power rating would be um plus one because they're supposed to win nine games. A 10 win win win team would be plus three because they're a game and a half above the eight and a half. The Niners would be such a team. So the Niners power ratings is a three, but the Rams Ross are supposed to win 11 games.

[00:05:23]So their power ratings of five. So I have the Rams two points better than the Ners. So I would look at that game in Australia and I see the Lions two and a half. Shocker. you love plus three and a half and certainly plus three more than plus two and a half. If that game got to plus three, we would be investing in the ners, but we're going to pass because we're just getting two and a half. Um Dallas is playing the Giants at the Giants. Dallas I have rated at plus one, the Giants minus two. On a neutral, that line would be three. One and a half for home field. And boom, we match DraftKings line of Dallas minus one half. There's no bet on that game.

[00:06:05]>> Wow. So, this is wild, Steve. And we're going to talk about this a lot as we get closer to the season because DraftKings, I think the DraftKings teasers were what, minus 130 now. And we were graded at minus 125 because there were a bunch of people telling us they could still get outlets at minus 120. So, we kind of split the difference between DraftKings and where you could get them other places because I'm looking at this, Steve. Niners getting two and a half, Giants getting a point and a half.

[00:06:41]Cowboys on Thanksgiving getting a point and a half. I'm itching, Steve. I'm itching to fire some teasers. I'm I'm dying to take opening weekend. I can get the ners at plus eight and a half and the Giants at home at plus seven and a half. Tell me why I'm wrong.

[00:07:01]>> So, pulling back the curtain. All right.

[00:07:03]During the offseason, I was telling Ross, we got to scale back our teaser play. And as Ross mentioned, the DraftKings has been beaten up on teasers in the past by us and others. And so now the seven point teasers minus 150. The six and a half point teaser is minus I this is from memory minus 140. I believe this the six point teaser is minus 135.

[00:07:27]Most places still have many places still have -120. We've been grading -25. But even at minus 125 it's not a matter of saying hey I'm going to tease me some ners and lay minus 125. You have to think about it. Do you want to bet the ners plus 8 12 minus 302? All right, that's really what you're laying approximately.

[00:07:52]When you think about that's what it cost you on the on that leg, all of a sudden those teasers don't look nearly as attractive when you're laying north of minus 300 on each individual leg. So, I think I'll be playing far few teasers going forward.

[00:08:10]>> I hate that. I hate that answer. I love teasers.

[00:08:14]>> Well, we've done so well. You've done so well historically.

[00:08:17]>> You're ruining it. Why are you ruining it?

[00:08:21]>> Don't blame me.

[00:08:21]>> You're ruining it for me.

[00:08:23]>> I'm just delivering the math.

[00:08:29]>> I I uh Yeah, I'm not I'm not happy. I'm not happy, but okay. I I can live with it. Okay. So, out of these games that have been released, do you see any where you are ready to make a move or you see value? Yes, there's two games I see value. One is not as good as the other.

[00:08:53]So, let's look at the Thursday week 2 game. Detroit at Buffalo. I'm not sure that Buffalo is appreciably better than Detroit. Both teams are lined at 10 and a half and the line's three. So, I should be playing Detroit plus three.

[00:09:12]But here's why I'm not eager to play it.

[00:09:14]one, Detroit has the easiest schedule in the NFL according to Warren Sharp. So, that's why they're lined at 10 and a half. Um, they're really power rating wise, if you just looked at Detroit season win number, that's too high. Um, but if they had to play a regular schedule, but it's not too high because they get a cupcake schedule. So, Buffalo is indeed better than Detroit. Further, trying to win in the NFL with road teams on Thursday is fraught with danger because the home teams with um with the short prep week and not having to travel have a bigger edge. So, I'll just lean to Detroit plus three, but I do have an investment on Thanksgiving. Philly, Dallas. So, Philly is supposed to win 10 games. Dallas is supposed to win nine.

[00:10:02]That means Dallas's power ratings two points lower than Philly. On a neutral, I'd make the line two.

[00:10:08]That means with home field I basically make the line pick them and Dallas is the dog plus one and a half further. I'm high on Dallas. I'm down on Philly and Dallas has a really hard schedule. So you could argue that their season win number is low because partly as low as it is because of the hard schedule. Dallas wrong team favored.

[00:10:32]We're gonna go Dallas plus one and a half on Thanksgiving.

[00:10:36]>> Wow.

[00:10:38]Plus one and a half on Thanksgiving.

[00:10:41]Wrong team favored. Got it. I mean, how much of a difference I'm just curious, Steve, is there between betting week one games that are being announced versus a Thanksgiving Day game? I mean, I guess there can be injuries before the first game regardless. It just feels like a massive difference.

[00:11:06]There is a massive difference because there's so much more uncertainty, injuries that can happen during the course of the season, and time value of money. Do I really want to tie up my bankroll, making tons of bets that aren't going to resolve for six months when I can bet the NBA playoffs today and be building my bankroll? Now, having said all this, I've had this argument with people before. Let's say you're sitting on and you're a serious sports better and a professional sports better and you own bonds. Well, in in the markets, your bonds are going to earn what, 7% over the course of the year. So given you're already investing in things that have crappy rates of return and you're tying up your money all year long with them in Wall Street and the like, then certainly you can invest in longer term sports betting bets like um games of the year that don't resolve for 6 months.

[00:12:03]More great stuff right after this.

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[00:13:35]That's basically what the Monarch app is. Spring cleaning, getting you ready for the summer, and you can get your first year of Monarch Core for half off, just $50 with promo code even. Again, use code even at monarch.com to get your first year of Monarch Core half off at just $50. That's 50% off your first year at monarch.com with code even. There will continue to be games that trickle out the next couple days and then Thursday night the entire schedule gets released and I'm told by our friends at DraftKings that they will have a lineup for every game. So my question is, Steve, is it important enough? Is it serious enough that people that are really trying to do well with this, really trying to make money with this, should they be just on Twitter X, like waiting for these games to be announced and then go right to DraftKings and see if there's value? Should they wait till Thursday night when they're all released? When Thursday night comes out, should they pounce? I know last week you talked about some teams that you wanted to fade week 17 and 18, you know, like the Arizona Cardinals who look like they could be headed towards a disastrous season where they want to get the number one pick quarterback. I I guess I'm just curious, walk us through your strategy or what should be the strategy for our listeners and viewers over the next three days?

[00:15:22]>> Yeah. Well, you just basically laid it out that the second that a sports book posts a virgin number. They're the first one in the world to post a number on a game, then you should be ready to pounce. You should be ready to go and immediately just keep toggling, keep hitting refresh, uh I got to be honest.

[00:15:41]So, a couple guys um in college football, if you're not following them, one guy um at Bradpower7 has been doing this for years. Um, a guy I recently got to know. Um, it's funny. Um, his Twitter, I believe, is at step on a duck. I didn't come up with it. He's very good. And what all these guys do is bet college football openers. I remember like one year Brad was like, "Oh yeah, they made BYU 12 on this game, but it should be two at a local sports book."

[00:16:13]And so he went ahead and bet it, you know, plus 12 and it closed too. All right. So, I mean, the bottom line is the pros that are fully focused, it's their money. Guess who's going to do better at this? The people who are actually investing their money or someone that's getting a paycheck and has to put up, you know, hundreds and hundreds of lines on all these different teams. I mean, a couple mistakes here or there. It's the minimus. It's no big deal. And so, the better is always going to be better at this than the bookmaker.

[00:16:46]Why? Because the better can just pass on 90% of the lines that are put up and just selectively snipe off all of the mistakes like Brad Powers does each and every year. He never loses Ross on his games of the year. He never ever loses because he gets CLV closing line value of about a touchdown on average on all these this massive portfolio he builds doing exactly what you described toggling and the second that that he finds out that someone's put up a virgin line he's ready to fire.

[00:17:19]>> Wow. I think we've been doing this show for a long time. First time I've heard virgin line. That is interesting. Virgin line. Okay. Will you be betting against the Cardinals like week 17 and week 18 Thursday night?

[00:17:32]>> Yes, because we discussed in prior shows there's a good chance that the Cardinals, teams like the Cardinals, the Browns, the Fish are going to be tanking and they're going to have a disincentive to win. Now, the players want to win, but management likely won't want to win.

[00:17:50]We've seen this in the NBA for years, and I believe the NFL is going to evolve to the point that we are going to have a year, especially with a quarterback heavy draft year like this year, where you're going to see some bad football, especially late in the year, and the NFL is going to have to rethink their draft policies.

[00:18:10]>> Yeah, you talked about that a little bit last week. Um, interestingly, Warren Sharp came out recently, our buddy Warren Sharp, and anybody could do this, but he actually puts the time in to do it. He has his schedule rankings and um, who has the easiest schedule and who has the hardest. Now, this is based, Steve, exclusively on projected season win totals. So, basically, he just here's the teams you're playing because we already know everybody's opponents. We've known that forever.

[00:18:54]Here's their projected season wins. So, you take all those, here's the projected season wins of the teams you're playing.

[00:19:01]Okay, here you go. Um, that's who has the easiest schedule. And then who has the hardest schedule? So the teams with the easiest schedules in 2026, Lions number one, Saints number two, Bengals number three, Browns number four, New York Jets number five. This is always fascinating to me. The teams with the hardest schedules, number one hardest schedule, Arizona Cardinals, number one, Miami Dolphins number two. You were just mentioning these teams. Carolina Panthers three, Dallas Cowboys four, LA Rams five.

[00:19:51]What, if anything, do we do with this information, Steve? This is just um is this enough to tweak any of our season win total projections?

[00:20:04]Well, we talked about Arizona and Miami, both teams lined at four and a half wins. We can't do much with that. That's such a low number. So, we'll attack with the games of the year when they put them up late in the year. Will look to be playing against these teams. Remember, the bookmaker tends to be anchored with these lines, these game of the year lines. They don't like to deal double digits because there's so much uncertainty. And so even when you get a total mismatch in Arizona, like a Buffalo Miami game, it's not unusual, hey, if Miami is hosting Buffalo, they might make that line eight and a half when they really should be making it 11 and a half late in the year because they're like, well, you know, Josh Allen could get hurt, etc. Well, guess what?

[00:20:48]Miami could also Miami could be terrible and that line could be 16. So, usually there's val I expect there'll be value fading Arizona and Miami late in the year, but I got to go back to the easiest schedule, Detroit. Um, now I know Cleveland and the Jets have really easy schedules, but they're terrible teams with terrible organizations.

[00:21:07]Don't want to invest in bad organizations. Detroit has a good coach and they're they've they have their act together right now. They're buttoned up.

[00:21:16]So, Detroit with the easiest schedule.

[00:21:18]I'm going to play over, but Ross, I'm not playing over 10 F minus 110 because DraftKings, you can go ahead and ladder up and down and pick different numbers to play against. And it turns out the worm has turned on this. It used to be you'd wanted to look to sell games. So, you would look to play Detroit over 11 and a half and get like plus 220. Well, now, if anything, it's cheap to buy an extra game. Specifically, Detroit at 9 and a half over 9 and a half is - 170.

[00:21:49]So, you can buy a whole game and you're only paying 60. That is actually a bargain. So, Detroit over 9 and a halfUS 170 is a fine investment in my opinion.

[00:22:03]Wow, that's fascinating. One of my questions as it relates to this is, isn't this a little bit skewed because like the Arizona Cardinals can't play against themselves or the Miami Dolphins can't play against themselves.

[00:22:19]So, if you're the Jets, you get to play the Dolphins twice. Or if you're some of the other teams, you get to play the Cardinals twice. whereas the Cardinals have to play Niners, Rams, Seahawks, and they can't play themselves. I guess I wonder about that a little bit. How much is that skew the schedule strength?

[00:22:40]>> Really depends on the division, right?

[00:22:42]So, if you're Carolina, um you can't play yourself, but you can play against the other team, you can play against the other teams in the division, and they're all mediocre, so it's no big deal. By contrast, you nailed it. the NFC West. If you exclude Arizona, that's the greatest that's the strongest division in the history of the NFL and that's who Arizona has to play six times, right? So, good good luck with your games against San Fran and the Rams in Seattle. So, even though you get three field games against last place teams, you're playing six games in division against playoffbound teams likely. That's a big problem. Anything else about Warren's like pre-schedule release schedule difficulty thoughts?

[00:23:32]It's really Well, go ahead. Anything else?

[00:23:35]>> Yeah, one more point that mathematically if you play a schedule of teams that's uh an easy schedule and they're supposed to win eight games instead of eight and a half games. An average schedule would be eight and a half games. So that's a half game difference. Um, you play 17.

[00:23:52]Uh, so that's that's like two points per game. Um, times 17. So that's worth um I'm sorry, that's like one point per game. That's worth like 17 points over the course of a year. It's worth half a win to play a very easy schedule just from the math of it. But I think it's worth more than that. And the reason being, we saw this with the Patriots last year. When you stack easy opponents week after week, not only do those games get easier, but then when you have a big game and you have a showdown game, you can look forward to it for three weeks and you can be skyhigh for it. And maybe you're playing a first place team schedule and they've got tough opponents week after week after week, so you have the advantage. So, I think it goes beyond you don't just have an edge when you're playing weaker opponents. you actually get an kind of a sneaky hidden edge when you play your few good opponents because you can get skyhigh for those games.

[00:24:46]>> The other thing I wanted to ask you about is I saw a social post from you at Fezix Sports. You were pretty excited about the opening of the WNBA.

[00:24:59]So, we got the PGA Championship, a major this week. We've got NFL schedule released this week, NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs, yet you posted about the WNBA.

[00:25:13]Is that still as profitable for you as it used to be? Is that still a real money maker for you?

[00:25:20]>> Not nearly as good as it used to be.

[00:25:23]However, I love it when there's so much product out there. I can just have different people I'm following. They're focusing on different sports. One person does tennis, one does golf, one does the WNBA. And so they can go ahead and pick off mistakes and the like. The more stuff you can bet on, the more lines that are out there and the more opportunity there is that when a book goes ahead, especially on the opening numbers when they're first putting up the numbers, the more opportunity there is that someone puts up a bad number initially and you can take advantage of it.

[00:25:58]>> Got it. Okay. Okay. So, you just were happy that there's more more volume out there >> and we you know, >> why is it not as good as it used to be?

[00:26:06]By the way, >> um the markets um >> more people figured it out. More people are betting it. Definitely more people are watching.

[00:26:14]>> More people with Caitlyn Clark started betting it. So, the limits went up and it became more basically you got to put this up as a sports book and you got to take a real bet. And so that required the sports books to take a um a harder stance to really looking at, you know, at getting these numbers up and um so you can get down more on the game and and the higher the more you can bet on the game, the more likely that the sports books are going to deal with Sharper Line.

[00:26:41]>> Next week is a huge episode. We'll have Warren Sharp breaking down the rest disparity, the teams that have an advantage and disadvantage in the way the NFL laid out their schedule. Not opponent, but in terms of travel, rest, all of those things. You don't want to miss it. Other than that, good luck everybody. Hope you guys win some money this weekend.

[00:27:05]>> Thanks for tuning in to Even Money. Make sure to also check out the Ross Tucker Football Podcast, Fantasy Feast, and College Draft, all on the DraftKings Network, YouTube, or subscribe to the podcast on your favorite platform.