This video provides a comprehensive technical analysis framework for crypto trading, covering Elliott Wave Theory (identifying wave patterns like 1-2-1-2-3-4-5 impulses and corrective moves), Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) for support/resistance identification, and pitchfork bands for trend analysis. The presenter demonstrates how to identify key support levels using anchored VWAP, golden pockets, and volume profile analysis, while emphasizing the importance of risk management, hedging strategies, and understanding both bullish and bearish scenarios to maximize trading success.
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Deep Dive
Another low coming for Bitcoin? key scenarios to trade! Plus Alts!!!Added:
[music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Mhm.
>> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Woo!
>> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [cheering] [music] >> All right, what is up everybody? Divine Hood here coming at you with another daily update on Bitcoin and the crypto markets. Welcome in everybody. Thank you for being here. Happy Friday to you all.
Yeshwant, much love to you. Thank you for always tuning in from India. Anna Lavita, hello to you. It's good to see you.
Mr. Ekachan, what's up, man? Yeah, the pitchfork D gen, man, and I'll tell you what those pitchforks really do work.
INJ INJ, I just took I closed out my long completely when we hit this pitchfork band at I think my 661 is where I had my TP set on the long, but there was a golden pocket in here. If we look at the golden pocket there was a golden pocket and your POC we bounced from the golden pocket POC took a long from that area 5 525 and just took profit. Now, I do think this could continue. This could continue all the way up to the top of the pitchfork around 780 on injective. But I really want to watch the back test of the of the whop here. We do have some bear divs. You can see bear divs on the one hour. We have bear divs on the four hour here.
But pitchforks are the are legit, man.
Pitchforks are legit.
A crypto water 5813 what's up, man?
Welcome in. Yes, please smash the like button on your way in, guys. Smash the like button if you get any sort of insight into the market from this live stream. We're going to go through a lot of different things today. We can try to get some new trade setups for the next coming week. And I do think a lot of the old coins are still continuing to run.
If we look at our total three market cap, let me go ahead and get that total three market cap.
This one's total two. Okay, total three.
Here we go. Excluding Bitcoin and ETH, we are coming down down to a support level. A pretty nice support level and all coins are doing pretty well certain all coins are doing pretty well against Bitcoin here. So, we're at a macro POC and our three-month long range POC here. Now, it is a little bit bearish that we did find re-acceptance back within the range and we have to watch for if we're going to back test the value area high, we could see a bigger dump come in here on the all coins and on the total market cap.
But if we can start to reclaim this, I do think that we could see a move all the way up to 815,000.
And we kind of have this little corrective range in here. This guy in here does look a somewhat corrective to me.
Uh we can actually pull a channel on that. Let's do that real quick here.
This guy right in here. And uh yeah, we want to really break out of this channel is what we want to see. And we want to see a break with some high volume. But welcome in everybody. RPINK, much love to you, man. Thank you so much for being here. Thank you for modding. Quiles 1100, what's up, man? Caesar Coco, uh thank you so much for being here.
Uh Shogun Crypto, much love and thank you for the support. Um Dylan Wadia, music upgrade. Uh no, it's it's same music, actually. I just started my timer late, so you're hearing a part of the song that you didn't you don't normally hear. My intro has two songs that I I've had on there for a while, and I really do like those songs, so uh Lyric 69, much love to you.
Uh what the hell was that today? I made a quick 1,200 on the way up, then flipped short, got some on the way down.
Uh yeah, it So, on Bitcoin, we did see yesterday, first of all, we were looking for a short from around the 382 to the 0.5 Fibonacci. So, we're we're just analyzing this last final fifth wave to the downside. We are in a larger, in my opinion, we're in a larger impulse of 1 2 1 2. We had our big third wave here, then we had our first four where we rejected that 78K naked daily point of control. I took that short with you guys. I let you guys know real time as I was taking it in the Telegram. We made a wave five, and then this was our second wave four, and we're in our second wave five. So, we're getting towards the end of this entire impulse down. Now, the question is, is the impulse done with? Is this final fifth wave done with?
Or do we have another low coming in?
And uh that's what we were analyzing a little bit yesterday. So, if we go on to the one-hour chart here, uh yesterday, I was looking at this as a wave one, wave two. Now, in your wave three, we were uh suggesting it could end here or the wave three we could see a one two the wave three was ending here. Sorry, that I don't know why my computer does that sometimes. One two three and now we're in a fourth wave corrective move before seeing that fifth and final wave within the fifth wave of the double one two impulse on the daily time frame.
Um and so we did come hit that 382 Fibonacci earlier today. If we pull a trend based Fibonacci from the highs of wave three to the lows of wave three, we turn on those wave four targets. Uh we hit that zero 0.5 Fibonacci, excuse me. Hit the 0.5 Fibonacci. Um Actually, before that, this is what we were looking at yesterday. We were looking at shorting the 382 Fibonacci and I actually did short that 382 Fibonacci. Uh I got stopped out on those hype shorts, by the way, guys. Hype is continuing to pump. We'll cover hype for sure.
But we were looking at shorting the 382 in here just to come down First TP was to take the lows.
So our trade was set up with something like this. Our first TP was to take the lows, the second TP was to come down to 717.
I did get stopped out after and I only took 25% when we took out these lows. I only took 25%. So I got stopped out after 25% profit on that. It was pretty much a nothing trade for me.
But you hit the 382, you come down, you grab liquidity from the lows.
And then after grabbing liquidity from the lows, we push up to the 0.5 Fibonacci.
>> [snorts] >> So here's the thing, guys. Often times in wave four corrections, you'll push up, you'll get that initial reaction from the 382, and then sometimes you come down and you make a higher low at the golden pocket, and then you come up to the 0.5. Everyone thinks, "Okay, this is breaking. This isn't a wave four."
And then the wave four rejects from the 0.5 and you make the lows. Now in this case, it looks more like a flat. We have our ABC here rejecting from the 0.5 in a wave four flat. And now could we come down and finally hit 71.7, which is a very, very key support. It's our anchor view up. It's the bottom of our big ascending channel on the daily time frame.
And um it's a yeah, anchor view up golden pocket there.
Let me zoom out and I will show you guys that channel.
Here we go. Uh zooming out onto our daily time frame.
You can see that we have And I'll just get rid of this real quick. We'll get rid of this. This is theoretical anyways.
Our bigger decent ascending channel.
This is our bigger ascending channel. We rejected from the top. We lost the midline. We back tested the midline last Tuesday or this Tuesday. And then we are coming down to the bottom of the channel right now. Where I think that is where we could find some really nice support for that this entire impulse being done with. And then we could make a move all the way up to golden pocket and pitchfork mid golden pocket channel midline pitchfork midline. I think in this general area we could be looking for giant swing shorts here.
Um based off my higher time frame bias and analysis.
But um locally I am still expecting some chop and we're going into the weekend.
So maybe we chop in very slowly over the weekend. And we know that Guys, I know that the full moon sounds like the full moon strategy sounds like um total garbage, you know, not real technical analysis. But it does play out like 70% of the time and we do have a full moon coming on Sunday. Uh the last time we got a full moon, I believe it was right in here. And it just gave us a really nice push to the upside. And those full moon cycles really do have an effect cuz it's it's based off human psychology. And uh the moon does affect human psychology. That's why when there's a full moon, there's more crime that happens, there's more passion that happens, romance, all these different things that happen. Uh because we're psychologically based beings and the moon does have an effect on that.
Um but technical analysis-wise, you can see that if we pull that golden pocket, that golden pocket is coming in 71 750 to 71 2, right at the bottom of this channel.
We also have our anchored view up from the 60K lows. Your anchored view up from the 60K lows, which is an important macro low pivot pivot coming in right there. So in in this uptrend, this overall uptrend within this channel, if we lose that anchored view up, remember that's our volume-based trend support. And this has been our trend for the past 3 and 1/2 months, it's been a a channel, a rising channel.
If we lose that trend, even if we come down to 68, yes, we could see a very nice bounce from 68, but now we would really have to be looking for that that um anchored view up to being flipped to resistance and continuing the dump down, most likely to take out 60K.
But first major support level's coming up here.
Now, if we zoom in on the 1-hour time frame, we did front run once again, we did front run that naked daily point of control. We have a naked daily point of control at 72 250.
And uh we are just continuing to front run it every time. So I am not so sure that we're going to get the reaction there, guys. We could get a little scalp off of this because we're going into the weekend and we might be forming Okay.
We might be forming a range like in this area over the weekend that's going to continue to chop. And so maybe we're going to get a move down, hit that naked daily SFP today's lows into the naked daily just to get a move up to like golden pocket 786 before coming back down and actually hitting into our support level. So yes, we could look for a scalp long because it is an SFP into a volume support level and I do like those setups, especially a naked daily point of control. So, if we get the SFP into 72250 and reclaim that low, I will be looking for a long and actually I will set an alert right now uh if we get that SFP long uh no, SFP long uh then I will take it. I will take it, but I will take it with very very uh a be very aggressive profits at my first TP.
You know, and and really we would have to pull that what we would do is we would pull the golden pocket from today's high to wherever that low is going to be and we would look at taking profit around the golden pocket. Uh but that could still be a really really good trade setup. So, let's say that we do come down, we SFP, we hit into the naked daily and then we start to reclaim that low. So, we're going to be setting our stop something like that. You can see that's still a 9:1 scalp within a micro range. And then we can also look to hedge it if we come up to this area and we start rejecting golden pocket, we can look to short this down to our 717 support below us and we can get some really good scalps even within this micro range. So, it's not about the size of the move, it's about how tight you can get your stop loss. And the tighter you can get your stop loss, the bigger you can get your position size. And you can actually make more money in these super small scalp trades than in a big swing trade where you have like a 4:1 risk to reward ratio.
Uh okay, MachiHK, what's up, my man?
Welcome in uh Machi. I was looking at your charts uh the other day. So, Machi, I want to show you cuz uh you have some interesting counts on your chart and I do think those are very very valid counts on your chart.
Um zooming out onto the daily time frame, what I would say here for me, and let me go ahead and clean this chart up just a bit.
We have some pretty interesting le- um we have this ascending channel on the chart, you know, but what I'm looking at in this ascending channel is an ABC an ABC correction to the upside that's completed and now we are looking for a five wave impulse to the downside. So we have our ABC. If we look at where does the ABC, you know, what ABC is an impulse correction impulse. We can say this is a contracting diagonal in here. There is a valid count for that and this is a multiple one two impulse in here.
And we did end right around the what a right at the one to one trend base Fibonacci extension. If we pull that trend base Fibonacci extension from 60k to 76 to 65 and you look at that one to one target, you can see that is exactly where we ended. It was also your logarithmic golden pocket. If you pull the golden pocket from 98 down to 60 and you turn that on log scale.
So very very nice level to end an ABC correction. Golden pocket value one to one.
Uh also impulse correction impulse within this impulse correction impulse.
Now the big thing we wanted to look at after rejecting from this area is the first move down. If this first move down was going to be a corrective move down, then it's likely that we could be in a more bullish scenario of a one two one two and then we're going to blast.
Um if the first move down was an impulse of move to the downside, that makes it more probable that this entire structure was an ABC that's completed and sure we might get a bounce, but we we want to be looking for a one two three four five something like that to come down and take out your 60k lows.
Um now I know Machi, you were looking at something even bigger. You were looking at like let's just zoom out to the three day time frame. You were looking at I believe something like this as a um a one two three four five, and then you were looking at this being a B wave, and then you're now looking for a one, two, three, four, five in a C wave coming down much, much more aggressively lower.
Um there is that is a valid count in my opinion, but there is one major concern with that count, and it's this impulse to the downside a one, two, three, four, five. Now, in that fifth and final wave, the rejection from 98k down to 60k, that is the problem with that count. If we zoom in on even the four-hour time frame, and we go look at that big dump that happened from 98k to 60k, there really isn't a a nice five-wave impulse in there. And remember, your fifth wave needs to end in a five-wave impulse. So, we have a wave one, we have our running flat in a wave two. What are you going to say this is your wave three, and then this is or three maybe stops here, and then you get another flat, and then a five. You would have that there's a problem with that because how do you count this as a three? There's only a zigzag there. So, maybe that's three, four, five. That's the end of your third wave. You get a small push up in a four, and then a five. There is a valid count, but it doesn't look very nice.
Um and that is my one big concern.
Now, on the other on the other hand, we've been looking at on this uh Binance chart Actually, was it the Binance chart?
Let's see here.
Let me go to the two-day time frame.
Yeah, we've been looking at the impulse ending in um December of 2018 is the end of that five-wave impulse, right? We had that big five-wave impulse ending on the weekly time frame. And then the other scenario I was looking at was that ABC correction within that five-wave impulse.
Did I get rid of it?
There we go. Okay, so looking at the A B flat and remember we came right up to those flat targets. We literally came right up to those flat targets.
Uh where are we?
Yeah, uh if you pull from the highs of A to the lows of A and you look between the 1.236 and the 1.382.
So, let's just go here.
1.
236 and then 1.
2 You can see we did reject absolutely perfectly from those targets and then um we rejected uh we fell back down and I think I that was on log scale. I have it somewhere on the chart here, but that would be your B wave flat high and then the C wave ended here.
And um the only problem with that is in a C wave you have to count an impulse.
So, we would have to go with that count of a 1 2 3 4 5 and then it's done and then now maybe in the bullish scenario you're going to start to impulse up here.
But I didn't like that as much as the other high time frame count because of the problem with this 98 to 60K drop.
What I then started to look at was that WXY correction and uh a WXY correction is a series of three-wave moves. And we have that big first three-wave move here.
Then in your W, you have a three-wave move here in your X and then in your Y, we're looking at maybe all of this being a three-wave move where you take out the lows at 60K still, but that it's a prolonged three-wave move in a Y and then you're you're pretty much looking for new all-time highs. And so, that's why I do think the next macro low could be a the the next low could be the the low.
There is many reasons also high time frame pitch works and you guys wreck Mr. Reckit Chan the pitch work D gen here. I love these high time frame pitch works and look it by the way, where did we reject on this multi-cycle pitch work?
This multi-cycle pitch work that has been so highly respected guys. It has been so highly respected the entire bull market, you know, flip, reject, flip.
Uh this was a distribution reject, reject. We busted straight through this band and when you bust straight through a band like this without any test or res- support coming in, often times you'll back test it bearishly and if you reject, that's when you come down to the bottom.
So, we rejected absolutely perfectly from the back test of this pitch fork band and we're starting to impulse to the downside. So, what I'm suggesting in the next couple of months we could see that five-wave move to come down to the bottom, which is going to be right and depending on how fast we get down there, it's going to be at $58,000 and at $58,000 is where our if I go back to the Coinbase chart, $58,000 is where our anchored VWAP from the bear market lows is coming in. You can see right at that 57 8 57 9. By the time we get down there, it could be close to $58,000.
And then if we look at our bearish pitch fork inside of our entire bull market or bear market trend from the original all-time high in that 2024 range down to 74K up to the current all-time high, you can see the bottom of that pitch fork is also going to be coming in there. So, if we get something like a one two three four five, something like that, you can see that it would be aligning very nicely with that support level.
We do have that naked monthly point of control that is sitting right at 57,900.
And if we look at our volume profile combining 2024's range, 2025's range, and now the range that we're forming in 2026, if you combined all three of them together, and that's based off market auction theory trying to find a a bear a balance for Bitcoin, the fair value for Bitcoin over the past 2 years, you can see the value area low of that range is coming in at 56. So, to me, 58 to 56,000 is our key key support.
Now, if we lose that, that is when we could see that proverbial head and shoulders topping reversal pattern. If this is going to be like a left shoulder, all of this is a head, and then you come up, you you know, instead of um instead of spouncing here or maybe seeing a micro bounce, and then you start to lose it, that's going to be that left shoulder, and there's your head and shoulders. And we do have a high time frame monthly bear divs that could suggest we could see a drop down here. But, that is my That is an alternative scenario for me. I do not think that crypto's going to crash down to the mid 30s, in my opinion.
Uh but, we'll have to kind of wait and see, right? We're going to have to wait and see how we're still just beginning this final move down. If we're going to get down and take out 60K, uh we're just beginning it. And we still do have the bullish scenario, guys. I I So often in these So, first off, in a sending channel like this, more than uh about 67 to 70% of the time, they'll break to the downside, especially if you do have your volume decreasing as you're moving up in that channel. So, if you're moving up in a channel like this, and volume is decreasing, it looks that's at least 70% of the time a corrective channel that ends up breaking to the downside and taking the channel lows.
Now, what we are seeing here is that lineup pretty nicely. Your volume is decreasing as you're coming up to key resistance. It was also the pitchfork midline of this bearish pitchfork.
But, what we could see here is uh in the bullish case scenario, you still could see this hold 1 2 1 2, and then you're going to explode up, and you're probably going to explode up at least to this upper band in here, where your upper range POC is. So, you could see your three come up here.
And then maybe you're going to get some sort of four five four five coming up all the way up to the top of the pitchfork.
Um or even a little bit higher, maybe up to that 110. 110 is the value area high of the range.
Of this upper range in here.
So, uh we'll we'll have to see. That's high time frame stuff, and it will take months to develop. But, uh it's good to see in here my JHK, and thank you for sharing your ideas with me, man. I appreciate that.
Uh Muhammad, welcome in, man. Why are you effed? Um when moon on Ondo? Let's see here. Ondo, I thought was doing pretty well. Ondo USD.
Oh, okay. We did reject. So, guys, on Ondo, man, we've been looking at this First of all, we've been trading Ondo beautifully. And if Mark Dutch is in here, Mark knows this. We hit this entire move up here, and we I took profit or I shorted exactly 0.58 uh I think mine was a 0.5856 I put mine in on. But, I got this short right here because it's our wave five corrective target in a wave four.
But, you got this move down to golden pocket. I also took a long here, and I took profit on the short here. And then we got a move up. I actually closed everything out right here, cuz I thought we were going to reject and keep going lower.
Um but, we are still rejecting from that overall resistance box, this box in here. And SFP into the 0.5.
Um and now it looks like we are starting to impulse to the downside here. It's it very likely to me that we're going to take out the lows, our recent lows in here, and we're looking at some sort of uh 1 2 3 4 5. That's a contracting diagonal. You have your three-wave move up in a B wave, and now we're in a 1 2 3 maybe 4 5 to take out those lows. So, I would be looking for some sort of uh almost like a flat, like this would be some sort of uh flat-type structure, but an ABC, right? ABC to um take out the lows and maybe hit this naked weekly point of control. 3176 is a naked weekly point of control that we can pay real close attention to.
Also, we can just pull this volume profile of this entire sideways price action. You can see we're below the value area low, and we're not even We might see this over the weekend where you see something like that small wave four that creates a zigzag up to reject from that.
You have this You could reject from that, and then you roll down, and you see your final five. So, it would be 1 2 3 4 5. You know, bounce from that naked weekly. And actually, what I'll do right now, cuz that does look enticing to me.
I'm going to set an alert on Oh, it's We already have it. Yeah. Set an alert on the naked weekly.
Um but the higher time frame So, the higher time frame for Ondo, guys, we could see a big big dump to the downside to take out your 19.6K lows.
Um and the reason why I'm saying that is on the weekly time frame, you could see from the highs, I think this is the all-time high. You We We do have a pretty clear impulsive structure. A wave one, here's your flat in a wave two, then here's your big wave three, and then we got that perfect three-wave corrective move in a wave four, and where do you reject in a wave four?
Between the 0.382 and the 0.5. We hit the 0.5 absolutely perfectly.
And now we could see something like this in your fifth and final wave to the downside, completing a weekly impulse to the downside.
Um the bullish case scenario is that this was overall a three-wave corrective move. You did not take out the lows. You did you um you did kind of surpass the 1.2 236.
So, if we take that trend-based Fibonacci extension, you you did pass the 1.236, and you didn't make it to the 1.618, but in a expanded correction, you can go even hitting the 1.618. So, what I would say in the bullish case scenario is this was a three-wave corrective move that's ended, and now we're about to start that big impulse in a a one two three four, maybe hitting that naked weekly, and then a five, pushing up to golden pocket value area low.
Um but, there's a major problem with that. So, there's a major major problem with that. And the reason why I think this is a three-wave corrective move, and we could dump in the next coming months down to take out 19.6, is because let's now zoom in on the daily time frame, and it's because of this very very first move from the lows, okay? So, you look at this very very first move. If we were counting this as a one two three, all of this is a flat and a four, and then a five coming up to golden pocket, your wave one has to be impulsive. And look at this, there is no way to count this as an impulse. This is very clearly a three-wave corrective structure.
So, we it's it's you can't you can't say one two three four five. Now, I know that we were looking at that that same thing on ZEC, and ZEC did end up impulsing up and continuing the impulse to the upside, meaning it was just going to be a much larger corrective move. But, um this is very very concerning, and because of that, we could be looking at some sort of W. We have a X triangle and then we have this big Y right here. WXY correction and now we could be seeing, you know, this continue to the downside. So, um I'm looking for a a long from the naked weekly, but I'm going to be very cautious with that because this could be a one, two, and then we're about to just continue down, three, four, five, something like that. So, we have to be very, very careful on Ondo.
I mean, that rejection from the 0.5 absolutely perfectly and seeing it overall as this nice three-wave corrective move in here is very concerning for the bulls.
Guys, please hit the like button. If you get any sort of insight into the market from this live stream.
Uh okay. Caesar Coco, moon phases uh could be sell self-fulfilling. Yes, they they could absolutely self-fulfilling prophecy.
I think in some ways though, even technical analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy because when so many people are watching a golden pocket or a certain volume level and they all enter trades there, it kind of makes that sell wall there or that buy wall there.
Yeah, the chart doesn't lie. You're right.
Uh Chichon, what's up, man? Welcome in.
Uh I have flipped max bullish today. I have to say I'm really looking forward to build some good swing longs in this area here and 71.6. Yeah, I think man, okay. I mean, we can look That's the cool thing, Chichon. As traders, we can have a bias.
Like my my micro Excuse me, my macro time frame bias is actually the opposite of yours is I I think we're going to come down and take out 60K, but the cool thing is traders is we don't have to agree and we can still win and both be successful both ways, right? So, you're bullish and you're looking to build swing longs down here. I'm also looking to buy build longs down here, right? I'm also looking to long this. And the cool part is if the bullish scenario does play out and I'm wrong, I'm still in the long from down here and I still you know, I'll probably take a profit at this golden pocket pitchfork midline area.
But um if it rejects and then we make another higher low, I can look to add back here.
And then if I get stopped out, if it keeps dropping and I get stopped out, I get stopped out, right? I've already taken a profit. And doesn't matter what scenario plays out. The key as a trader is to be aware of both scenarios and you hedge yourself against each other, right? You're hedging against yourself.
You're you're playing both the bullish scenario and you're playing the bearish scenario. And so for me, like if we come down to 71.6, I'm going to take the long, but also when we come up to that golden pocket and pitchfork midline, I'm going to look for a swing short here because that could be your big wave three to the downside and then a four and then a five, right? So I'll and then if I get st- if I enter the short here and it keeps going, I get stopped out, okay, whatever. I I'm still in the long from down there. And I'm still winning, right? Overall. If it does end up rolling over, I'm in a short from the top, I get stopped out on the rest of that long position and then I let the short ride. And that's why as a trader, it being aware of both scenarios and trading both scenarios, hedging against each other, so no matter what happens, you're right. Or you're you're not right, but you'll make money. Because this isn't about being wrong or right.
This is about knowing enough knowledge and and trading in a way where you make money whether you're wrong or right. And so that that for me is the key here. And guys, as traders, you really want to get into that mindset of yes, you can have a bias, but you want to be able to trade both a bias your your bias and your counter bias and make money both ways.
And it's all about risk management.
You're so right, R Pink.
It really really is all about risk management, guys.
That's the biggest thing here.
Big deals well, much love to you, man.
It's been a while and I'm I'm happy to see you in here. Uh how are things going for you, big deals? Uh Dylan Wadia, uh 26.5k.
Man, Dylan, I that's pretty aggressive for me, uh 26.5k, especially in 3 to 6 months. I mean, we would have to see MicroStrategy sell off, or we would have to see some pretty crazy stuff.
Uh Jesus saves 77, God bless you, man.
Thank you so much for being here, and uh it's great to see you in here. John, uh good afternoon to you as well. Boomdog say, love you, man. Good to see you in here. Serious crypto, uh yeah, we can look at Tao. We'll absolutely look at Tao here.
Um and Rocktin Road, thank you for the comment, and thank you for the support, man. Uh love the channel, new favorite.
Thank you, man. I really do appreciate that, Rocktin Road.
Um I appreciate all of you guys in here.
You guys We have a regular community in here that is so awesome, and they really understand what they're talking about with trading as well. So, I appreciate all of you guys, you regulars in here. I really think that when we work together as a community, we really do trade better, you know, instead of always trying to do something on your own, always having this kind of egotistical bias of like, "Oh, you know, I'm right, everyone else is wrong." No, I like us for us to throw ideas out to each other, and I like for us to um constantly kind of be communicating those different ideas and those different scenarios. Because when we do that together, that is when we really can, together as a community, no matter which bias is right, we can still scrape money out of the market, away from the market makers, and into our portfolios. So, I I really think uh we're building something special here, guys, and I appreciate all of you for that.
Uh Fin chat, what's up, man? Good to see you in here.
Um okay.
So, let's go through Tao.
Tao USD.
Wait, was it Tao?
So, last time we were looking at this, and I think I have the Binance chart of this as well. So, we'll look at the finance chart, but we were in a little ascending channel here.
We broke that ascending channel down, so we'll get rid of that.
And that was our bearish break in market structure. Remember, we were looking at a bearish break in market structure. So, we came down, we broke market structure bearishly, and then we flipped it to resistance. So, we had our bearish break in market structure.
Um to me, it looks like this could be still in ABC correction from these highs. You could be looking at um some sort of 1 2 3 4 5 in here followed by a larger three-wave corrective move, and then we should be looking for another impulse down here. And um we have Okay, this low, we can get rid of this low. That doesn't pertain to us anymore.
But, I would be really looking to take out the lows at 230. Potentially 230.
Uh we can actually pull our 1 to 1 trend-based Fibonacci extension as well.
We'll go from here to this low. Yeah, your 1 to 1 is right underneath those lows. So, maybe we're going to SFP those lows right into the 1 to 1, and then you can see your 1.236 is going to be right around that macro golden pocket. So, uh looks like a pretty nice correlation there.
If that's the the um if it's going to play out like we think it might, you know.
>> [snorts and sighs] >> Uh and then unfortunately, as far as the triangle goes, we the triangle might not play out, guys, cuz you have your A B C. You needed it to see a three-wave move up in a D, and then a three-wave move down in an E, and then you would get that continuation, but we're not really seeing the triangle play out.
Kind of breaking that to the downside.
Uh we really like to Yesterday we broke it down, but we closed pretty much at the lows of the channel. And then today, if this closes as low as it is today, I would at least at the very very least expect a move to the value area low of the triangle. So, coming down to about uh 240-ish, 241, let's say.
But, we'll pull this as well.
We'll go there, and we look at our 886 Fibonacci. Yeah, your 886 is going to be at the bottom of the at the value area low. And remember, in sideways ranges, the 886 will give you a bounce, guys.
So, seeing that 886 there, this is a pretty sideways range. You might be able to at least get a scalp lock long opportunity from like 242 to 241.
But, it What I would be watching for is if you come down here, you have some bull divs, you get that long, I would really be aware of back testing the POC in that and that uh triangle for a continuation down.
Yeah, and even coming down to golden pocket, you could even come down to the golden pocket and still make an overall higher low cuz we were looking at this Uh let me just go to the USDT chart on Binance. And we were even looking at this as a potential five-wave move. So, let me get rid of our small channel that we had. We can uh value area low. So, once again, guys, the value area low is going to be at the bottom of the pitchfork band. So, that's even more confluence there uh for the va- value area low.
We got this triangle volume profile.
Yeah, in this zone is the next big level. Actually, 241 is a zone, 241-242, but I actually like this a little bit better cuz it's coming into our more macro value area low.
And it's also a liquidity grab into the pitch work band.
Um we did reject right from this resistance like we were looking at the golden pocket POC. So you got that rejection. You did front run the naked monthly just barely, but um this was our rejection zone that we were looking at.
Up there at 319. So we'll get rid of that. That played out very nicely.
Um and there is still the opportunity, let me just get rid of that for a second and there's still the opportunity to make a higher low and then continue pushing higher because we do have a a pretty solid one, two, three. Here's your flat in a four and then a five, right? So you have a five-wave move up. That's an impulse to start and the impulse broke high time frame market structure bullishly by taking out these highs.
So that means that yes, now we've broken daily market structure bullishly, this actually does look somewhat like a corrective channel. Instead of looking at this as a triangle, maybe we should look at this as a a corrective channel.
So we can pull that there. Uh nope.
There and there's your corrective channel.
And if we do, you know, coming down, let's pull that macro golden pocket. Uh we would go from here to here, golden pocket, and then I want to put that on that golden pocket got to be on log scale.
And you can see 207 208, where's that going to be at the bottom of the channel? So very, very nice guys at the bottom of the channel. So if this is an impulse here, a wave one impulse, you could see a more corrective move all the way down to golden pocket in a wave two, and then you get your big explosion in a wave three. Or even if it's an ABC, right? A ABC is an impulse correction impulse. So either way, that macro golden pocket at 208 to 201 is a area where I would be looking for a major long if we get down there. Now, before that, we do have the uh pitchfork band in confluence with the macro value area low. So, that is an area I would be looking as well. Uh and then you have the liquidity. Actually, what we'll do right now is I will set an alert on this liquidity at 234. And if we get that SFP, we will take that SFP long.
Because um yeah, that is a good setup for me, in my opinion.
The big scary thing is if we do drop to the golden pocket, then you're losing your macro value area low of this whole bottoming price action. You can see this entire bottoming range in here. And if you lose the value area low, the the bearish scenario would be that yes, you're you're still probably going to see a bounce from 208 to 201.
But, the bearish scenario would be you come down, you bounce, only to come up and back test now the channel midline, your value area low, and your prior range lows, this this upper smaller range, as resistance, and then you would continue to roll over and probably take out the lows.
Which I don't like those double bottom lows like that. And even this even in here, guys, I do not like this here, how we have a low and then just a very slightly higher low here. So, I wouldn't be surprised Right now, the bias is, because this looks impulsive, that we should be looking at a higher low for a potential swing long. But, I wouldn't be surprised if we do come down and sweep all of these lows together.
So, we can be aware of both of those.
And by the way, if we sweep all of those lows together, that's going to be a major uh uh swing long, right?
If we SFP them, I'm saying if we don't SFP them, we don't take the trade, but say we are going to, you know, do something like this and then come down, hit that there, and then get above it, that is where I would be looking cuz you would sweep all of this together. I would be looking for a swing long, and I would be looking for the swing long to at least come up to our golden pocket, and I'm talking about the macro golden pocket. So, we would be pulling a golden pocket from the range highs.
If I can get them, let me just zoom out to the 3-day time frame so I can grab this easier.
To wherever those lows are going to be, and we'd be looking at your macro logarithmic golden pocket. So, coming up towards value area high, 389, and actually that would be your pitchwork midline as well by the time you get up there.
If you do something like that, and then you, you know, kind of work your way up to that area, and then who knows what's going to happen there.
That's That's very far away. That That That's going to take a few months to play out at least. Uh it might even take a few months to get down here if we're going to get down there. So, we can keep an eye on this long term, but that's what I'm looking at for TAO right now.
So, first level I would be really paying attention to I mean, 24 that 886, that very local 886 at 242 and 241 is a level uh to be watching that is going to be this volume profile. If you look at this upper volume profile, actually um wow, on Coinbase or on on Binance, you've already broken it to the downside.
Hold on, have we?
Yeah, you've already broken it to the downside on Binance.
But uh then in that scenario, this is the next good support level in my opinion. The SFP at 234 right into your macro value area low, and it's the bottom of your pitchfork band.
Uh if we're going to get into the hundreds with Tao, I'm going to buy big spot bag. Same way of Hyp and Zex. Yeah, I think you meant ZEC.
Chad P, Steppen Dingus, uh Colin Dresser, welcome in, guys. And Joshua, welcome in.
Can we look at Mult through a few hundred at it? Yeah, we'll look at Mult.
We'll look at Mult. Really quickly, I want to talk about Hyp because Hyp, guys, and by the way, Hyp, as far as fundamentals go, I think Hyp is one of the better tokens on the market. It's really even starting to out overpower um Solana's ecosystem.
But, Hyp, we were looking at a couple things yesterday, and I did get stopped out twice on a short from value area high golden pocket. I got stopped out twice. I lost two trades there yesterday, and I was posting about those in the Telegram. The reason why I was looking for a short there is cuz we have a pretty clear 1 2 3 4 5, and then I was looking at these as a couple 1 2s, another 1 2, and then I was looking for a breakdown and some 4 5s coming in.
But, what now we can say after having this updated count, uh updated price action, 1 2 3, this was a corrective move in a flat in a four, and we're in our fifth and final wave now. And then, what do we see, guys? What do we want to see in the fifth and final wave? We want to see that buying exhaustion, right?
You want to see that ascending channel, buying exhaustion, and you want to see bear divs coming in as you're forming those highs.
So, what we can look at is we can pull our channel from the lows to that first high there, and you can see we're coming up to the top of the channel.
Another way to pull this channel is from the highs, and so we could pull it from the highs. Oops, let me get rid of that.
From the the highs here to that first low. And this channel here.
Uh let me pull both of them, and whichever one is more respected is the one I go with.
And actually, let's do that. There we go. All right, so we'll make that one blue.
And let's now look at both of them. So, I'm going to hide the pink one.
Yeah, you flipped the midline here.
You're pushing up to the top of the channel. Okay, this one looks pretty good.
Honestly, they both look They They're They're very similar. Very similar channels. I'm going to I'm going to keep the blue one there.
Um but we got to be careful here, guys, cuz we are starting to now see that selling or the buying exhaustion towards the end coming here with some bear divs on the chart.
I have not shorted this yet. Uh if we actually can we can pull a volume profile of this price of the channel.
If we start to Yeah, we're above value area high, and the value area high is going to be the midline. So, if we reject here and come down and bounce from the midline and the value area high, I would expect this to continue.
And that actually could be a little scalp long to take out the highs.
We can look at that when the time comes.
I just want to pull it to right here.
Yeah, okay. So, that would be your POC of the range at the uh channel midline.
Now, your value area high, you don't really want to lose the value area high around 6395.
But hype is looking pretty good. On the 1-hour time frame, we don't have bear divs on market cipher, but you can see we have bear divs on Nami, but money flow looks relatively good.
Uh as far as the 8-hour, 8 hours really important to look at money flow. So, money flow is rising again on market cipher, but we are setting up for a third drive of bear divs. And this is where this comes into play. High, high, high. If we get one more high and we see 1 2 and then we get a third drive of bear divs here, and then money flow curves off here and gives us money flow bear divs, that's when I'll be looking for the mega short. But you can also see the bear divs here, and then we are also starting to form another drive of bear divs here. So, if we get something like this and then another drive and then your money flow makes a lower high with bear divs, that is going to be the next big big short that we could take on hype.
Uh let's do this. Let's pull a trend-based Fibonacci extension.
Go here. We'll go for our fifth wave targets. Yeah, I would really be looking up uh gosh, man, coming up to like $68 or so.
And I want to do this as well.
Yeah, you're starting to come into that 1 to 1 zone. In a very bear a very bullish scenario, you're going to boost all the way up to 90. Because we would be looking at this as a one running flat and a two, you get a three, and then a four, and then a five. And honestly, I would not be surprised if I does do something like that. We can actually look at hype uh USDT on Bybit, I believe it was. Yeah. But be very careful, cuz remember, guys, we are towards the top of a channel or a pitchfork as well. So, this is when you start to see this grindy sell a buying exhaustion towards the top of a pitchfork, we have to be careful for a bigger pullback. So, I would not be looking and this is where I got stopped yesterday at 60 2 2, I believe it was.
See, I was taking the short right in here. It was golden pocket value area high.
I got stopped out. Um Yeah, see golden pocket value area high.
I was taking that from the value area high. Dang, I should have As soon as we started to bounce from this pitchfork band, I should have closed it out. I wasn't paying attention. If I was paying attention, I would have closed it out and I would have at least made a small win.
But, you can see we rejected value area high, came down to the pitchfork band, flipped it to support. Now, even locally in here, guys, this move up from the value area low, it's not done yet. If anything, this is a a one two one two and we're in our third wave here. Now, we're looking for a four five four five.
So, a couple more highs being made in this.
Okay, molt. I was going to look at molt.
Hold on, where am I at? I'm so far behind in the chat.
Let me just catch up on the chat real quick, guys.
Yeah, 36 likes with 96 viewers. Come on, guys, we could do better than that.
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Okay, Mult. Let's go to Mult real quick here. Mult oops USD T Is Mult book? It looks like it's Mult book.
Man, this looks like it's a newer coin.
Uh let's go with MEXC.
All right, first off, right away I can see this is a very low liquidity coin.
Be very careful trading this. You see all these giant wicks right here. That means it's low liquidity. And even if your technical analysis is right, one big buy order on the book can destroy your perfect setup. So, you have to be very, very careful trading this coin.
What I will say here is it does look like it's starting to find a bottom. You can see that we had well, gosh, man, dump little bit of pump, and we're starting to find a floor here.
Kind of uh starting to find a floor in this area here. Now, what I would be looking at personally is you could pull a volume profile of all of this, but this is going to really affect that volume profile pull. So, I would be pulling my volume profile from this range right here. And this is what we want to focus on right now. If we start to flip this value area high to support, then we can look at pulling the bigger range. Actually, it doesn't matter.
Um well, I mean, the value area low of this range matters. So, that's going to be coming in 001238.
All those zeros and a 1238.
Um but, let's pay attention to this, and what we can look at is do we see Okay, we don't see bull divs.
You have to take out this low right here to see some bull divs.
Another thing, looking at this move up, this looks like a three-wave corrective move up, right? This looked like a three-wave corrective move up, even though it looks super impulsive. Your C wave was a giant impulse, but it was a three-wave corrective move up. What happened? You came down, you took out the low.
We have another smaller fractal of that.
Three-wave corrective move up, so we should be expecting to come down and take out the low.
Okay? Simple as that, in my opinion.
But, now you can zoom in and if you're trading this, you said you threw a couple hundred a few hundred dollars into this, uh what I would be looking at is this looks like we could be in another three-wave move, like a series pretty much a larger complex correction with a series of three-wave moves.
But, we can pull it from that high to the lower high there, and then you throw it down to that first initial dead cat bounce low, or that first initial low, and you you probably are just going to chop within this channel until you come down and take out the bottom. So, I would really be looking for a this low to be taken out, but you might just continue to do something like this and chop. Maybe you're going to see another giant wick real quick and then an instant drop. You know, something like that.
Um but, I would just really be paying attention to this coming down and grabbing those lows.
You are right now below the value area low of this range, as well. You can see now it's trying to flip it into resistance.
You you pumped up to value area high, you had an instant sell-off. Pump to value area high, instant sell-off. Lost the point of control, so you lost the fair value. You're below the pitchfork midline and you or the channel midline.
You can see bounce from value area low, reject from POC and channel midline.
Besides that big wick, that was probably one big buy and maybe I don't know how what the liquidity looks like on this, but I would really be looking for a continuation slow grindy like this.
Slow grindy continuation like this in here until you get down and take out those lows. Now, once you take out those lows, you can start to look for a reversal, but I would really be looking to take out those lows and I don't know anything about this coin.
Um All right, the the one other thing we could say is this is some sort of accumulation. So, in a bullish scenario the to in my opinion, we are going to take out those lows again. And that could be a model one accumulation, right? You have tap one, tap two, and then you get a tap three. That's your model one accumulation and then you see expansion to the upside.
Now, you can also look at a model two.
This is your tap one, this is your tap two, and if you come down and you bounce from a higher low and then start to break this, this could be a tap three in here.
Uh so, that tap is usually between the the golden pocket and the 786. So, we need to look at the uh golden pocket 786. We're going to put that on log scale.
And have we And we're look we Yeah. What So, that's probably why we saw that big buy come in just now earlier today or maybe it was that yesterday, this big buy, because some people are probably looking at this as a possible model two accumulation where you have a tap one, a tap two, and this is your tap three, and people are looking for the expansion here.
But, I would it was an instant sell-off.
So, to me and you're like you're chopping around the 786.
You're between the 786 and the value area low.
You're stuck between the 786 and value area low here. I would not be looking to long this yet. I would want to see a better sign of strength, because the first sign of strength you saw an instant sell-off on just yesterday or today. It was yesterday.
Um so, from in my opinion, I really would be looking to come take out this low.
Uh not financial advice and I'm not a financial advisor, but that's just me personally.
You are you're starting to see some bull devs here. You can see from this low to this low, you have some bull devs, but money flow is looking pretty crappy and you do not have bull devs on Nami. So, I don't have the perfect setup that I like.
Let's go to the 8-hour chart. That's important to look at money flow is 8-hour. Yeah, 8-hour money flow is leaving aggressively. No bull divs. You have some bull divs here, but money flow is starting to leave again. So, personally, I would be looking for a continuation of a grind down until you take out these lows.
Okay, um let's go to the next one.
Uh where's Okay.
Uh War Dog Thunderbolt, welcome in, my man.
Coin Operated, much love to you, dude.
Thank you so much for being here.
Uh and Chad P, welcome in.
Uh by fi, literally lost my money to a third-party cloud service provider uh by DFI. Oh, I I don't know what by DFI is.
Are you talking about by fi or by DFI?
Um who they will not name. Okay.
In it Colin, if that's true uh that if you're Are you talking about by fi or is by DFI something different?
Um but I can reach out to Allen if that is if you're talking about by fi, I can reach out to Allen and see uh what we can do.
I've never had a complaint about by fi yet, so uh Same with Yeah, okay. ZEC Chichon, ZEC is not looking so hot, but I am looking still for longs in this zone.
I We have kind of a double bottom in here, and I would like to come down and you can see I have an alert set on this naked daily point of control at five um 513. I'm really looking for potentially a long from this naked daily point of control at 513.
But, you can see Let me just hide this box real quick. We're coming down, and we're starting to bounce from the pitchfork band.
Right? The pitchfork band's holding us.
Now, could we do something cuz we keep also we rejected a local 786, and you can see we can't even get past the the POC on the 4-hour. We're just wicking up past it. But the POC is now flipping to resistance here.
So, could we drop a little bit lower even to test the bottom of the band here? Yes, we could, and that would take the lows.
That would take out these lows. Um actually, depending on how quick we came down.
Uh but it doesn't look too good on ZEC.
One One of the things is that touch here at the 1.236, it was the a five-wave move, right? A one, two, three, four, five. And that was our five-wave impulse. And now from there we have a one, two. Now, this two came up extremely high. It came up past the 0.9, and I don't like that. So, that could be a one, two, three, and then we could be in a four and a five, something like that. But because we came up to the 0.9, we can still look at this as a corrective move, an A, B, a C, where we're ending in this general area, and then we keep going. And I'm hoping that's the case cuz I'm still long on this. So, I'm hoping that's the case. I am looking to add to the long position position here, but I have not yet.
Because when we first came down here, I didn't see confirmation.
And I wasn't trying to catch a knife.
And then since then I'm not really seeing the best confirmation. In order to get bull divs, we need to take out the low from uh Thursday.
So, if we take out the low and we have bull divs, I will look to take a long.
And especially if we tap that naked daily at uh pretty much 514.
And then we have to also be aware that uh for local resistance above us, you can see if we pull our golden pocket, the golden pocket is coming in at the value area high of this range around 622. So, we really have to be careful that this could be still, you know, a 1 2 1 2 and then you get your big dump and then you get some 4 5s 4 5s coming in.
And the reason why we could impulse down here is cuz we finished this five-wave impulse here.
Uh okay. What's up, Crypto Clan World?
Much love to you, man. Welcome in.
Uh yeah.
Let me know about that, Colin, please.
Um if that's the case, I would like to know for sure.
Um Wiggly Worm Crypto, much love to you, man.
Uh it's good to always check the token versus BTC. Yes, you're absolutely right, Wiggly Worm. So, if you could look at like HYPE BTC, you know, if we look at HYPE uh BTC, you can always also check HYPE against Bitcoin.
You know, and it and you can see it's in an uptrend. Gosh, that was a pretty big craziness there, but um you know, SOL BTC, you can always check those two to see if it's at a support level.
Man, Solana against Bitcoin uh Solana has been very disappointing to me lately.
Yeah, you're you're probably coming down here. Solana to Bitcoin, you're probably coming down to this area.
But, once we get down here, if Bitcoin gets down here and Solana gets down here as well uh I mean, if if Solana gets down there and Solana's at support and Bitcoin's also at support, I would be looking to long Solana.
You can see that's the value area high of this small accumulation range.
Value area high, naked weekly point of control, golden pocket.
Uh kind of hard to trust TA when the market is manipulated unless it's not manipulated. Yeah, John, um of course there's going to be manipulation a little bit, but overall the market that's why if you go for the bigger liquidity assets that are harder to manipulate, like Bitcoin, like the big altcoins, you know, Ethereum, Solana, um when those low volume altcoins are very hard or very easy to manipulate and that is when it can really affect the overall technical analysis. So, when you're going through the bigger stuff, it's better.
Um Tyrus Bull hostile, we can definitely check Sui. I have an entry at 95 and LEC at or LEK at 78. Yeah, let's let's check those right now. Sui, I think I was You have an entry at 95, a long entry?
So, Sui, we have Let me hide this bearish pitchfork.
We rejected so the big thing about Sui is look at where we rejected. Your lower high golden pocket to the absolute dollar. Now, these were local resistances that we didn't get up to.
They're no longer valid because we've made new lows. So, I can get rid of those.
Uh let's see. Was that still a naked Uh let me just get rid of this.
But what Where do we reject? Okay, so if you look at from this First of all, this high was a very important high because it was the it was the bearish back test of this upper range. And remember, we have two ranges we're looking at. This upper range and this lower range in here.
Okay? And we lost the upper range.
We bounced from a pitchfork midline of our major bullish pitchfork. That's this major bullish pitchfork in here.
Okay? We bounced from the midline. And then we come up, we back test the upper band, but it's also the back test of the the value area low of the range you lost. You can see this was wave corrective move. Reject impulse down, okay? So now we have impulse down. And what what happened is now from the high of this this high to this low, if you take a logarithmic golden pocket.
Now, watch this. If you take a a golden pocket from high to low and you don't put it on log scale, if you just put it on golden pocket, you're going to say, "Wait, Divine Hood, we didn't hit the golden pocket."
That is more than a 30% dump to the downside, guys. This is a I think it was like a 65% dump to the downside. 61% dump to the downside. So because it's more than a 30% drop, in order to get your key your actual 61.8% retracement, which is a key psychological level, you need to take this fib, you need to come into settings and you need to click based off log scale. And once you do that, you can see it's going to shift your golden pocket to the proper spot.
Okay, so we come up. We reject from the golden pocket, also rejecting from the Uh actually, that's a fresh daily. So that's a fresh daily fib there. But you can see we rejected a lower high golden pocket. It was also pretty much the back test of the lows of this range, right?
All these lows in here.
A back test of the lows of the range, your prior range. And now we're impulsing down. It is very likely to me that we are going to take out these lows here, guys. And remember, we kind of needed on all these altcoins, I'm looking for accumulation. So we have our big tap one here. We do not have a new low for a tap two.
If we can get a tap two in here and then kind of continue to range for a bit, you know, get a tap three, you have your model two accumulation.
Or we could even come down, range for a bit, range for a bit, come down one more time, and then you have your model one, tap one, tap two, tap three, blast off, right? So, I'm looking at the fact that we rejected here, it was also the back test. I know it was a front run of the back test, but it was that pitchfork band that was holding as support a few months ago. Holding as support now flipped into resistance.
Now, what are we doing here?
We are chopping right around and this support uh we did get a nice little bounce from that support. You could see it was a at least a scalp trade. Bounce from the naked weekly and the pitchfork band, you get a move up all the way up to uh 110.
But after that, it failed. So, you might have got a TP1 and got stopped out on that long position.
Um we've lost the daily now, okay?
We're now coming down to the bottom of the pitchfork band. Now, this could give us a small bounce. This could give us something like a bounce up to here, you know?
Uh but I would be expecting this to continue overall down. And if this is going to be a wave one, wave two, this wave three, you'd want to continue probably to take out the lows, actually, and then you get a four and then maybe a five. But it looks like this is impulsive price action to the downside.
So, be careful trying to long this.
Let's see if we have any support in there.
If we look at pulling a Fibonacci from the lows to the highs, K, we've lost the golden pocket. That's where that Remember, that's where that golden pocket um and that naked weekly was there. That's why we're looking for a long here.
But let's also throw on our 786 and we're at the 786. Okay, so this is kind of a key support 786 bottom of the pitchfork band.
Man, I would like to come a little bit lower at least to grab the liquidity. So maybe you see this continue just a itty bit and then see something like that and if we if we get the SFP and reclaim the pitchfork band, I would look for a long up to uh about 99 cents.
But it's not looking the best here. So SUI I mean we would have to say this is more of a complex corrective range, but you can see the last move up in particular 1 2 3 three wave move up. Because this was a three wave move up, you expect overall to take out those lows and most likely that low.
Uh let's pull our volume profile of this entire range.
And yeah, you're back inside the volume profile. Look at when you first came down here, you tried to bounce from value area high a couple times. You couldn't. You fell back in and that's when we're dropping now.
Um what I would say is you're you're you're at your 786. If this 786 doesn't hold right here, you're going to make new lows. It's just a matter of time and yes, you'll see small bounces along the way, but it's just a matter of time.
Now this line right uh hold on. Let me You can see this range right here. This is your lower range. You can see this white line at 8811. This white line right here. That is the POC of that range.
Okay, we've hit it 1 2 3 times. We keep bouncing from it.
But I would personally like to grab the liquidity that's right below it this internal liquidity and there's this is important liquidity because look how strong this move up was afterwards. So anyone that longed any of this in here stop would go below that low.
Right? Especially if it was swing long.
Now maybe not this high.
But anywhere in here, your stop is going below that low.
So, there is going to be key liquidity underneath that.
Um and then the big big level is coming down to the bottom of the macro pitchfork, right? Coming down and seeing something like that. That would be a very very nice support level, you know, 69 70 cents, depending on how long it takes. But, I would say uh no real bull divs yet on the daily time frame. Let's go to the 4-hour. Let's see if we at least have a Money flow looks like garbage here, guys. No bull divs here.
Very slight bull divs on Nami, but money flow's leaving. So, here's what I would say right now.
It's unlikely that we get a strong bounce from here.
Could we get something small? You can see all this chop in here, and we're finally hitting the 786. So, could you get a move maybe even a just a little itty-bitty micro flat in here?
Like a something like this where you reject POC and then you keep going, and it just pretty much is all continuation of the wave three. Yes, you could.
So, I personally wouldn't be looking at longing too much here because we already got the bounce, and then you came right back down.
Unfortunately, to me, it looks like that we're at least going to grab a this low at 88 11.
And then if we come down to 83 14, excuse me, 83 14 is the POC, not 88 11.
But, yeah. Um I would be looking to take out these range lows at 75 cents, 74 75 cents.
Uh 78, sorry. 79 cents, let's say.
I will set an alert there. If we get the SFP long, we'll take it.
Okay. Actually, that uh POC, once again, guys, you can see if it even if this is going to be a larger three-wave corrective structure and we're kind of in this very complex three-wave move, three-wave move, three-wave moves.
You're just continuing all these complex uh three-wave structures in here.
Coming down between the one to one and the 1.236 is a target. You can see the one to one's aligning with the POC. So, I would say the first level is this uh first big support level would be the POC down to that liquidity grab.
Uh 83 to 82, let's say. But, the better level, in my opinion, the better level would be taking out the overall range low into the 1.236 from 788 to 768.
Those are your two big levels. Now, anything in between uh the the other level is what we're at right now. It's the 786 and liquidity of this low. Now, this I don't think this is going to work, guys. Like, so don't don't get me wrong. I'm putting a box here because it is a support level, but I don't think it's going to work.
Maybe it will. Let's go on to the uh let's go on to the 15 minute. Let's see if we have any some Yeah, you have some bull divs. You do have some bull divs. Bull divs on money flow, but market cipher's money flow on the 15 and I believe it was the hourly.
Yeah, looking pretty bad here. So, I wouldn't say even if you get a bounce, it's not going to be much, guys.
It's not going to be much in here.
I would let's uh we'll set an alert on 8811. If we get an SFP on 8811, we could look for a small long. Like this is going to be a scalp, right? So, what what we would be looking for is the SFP, and then as soon as we start to reclaim the pitchfork band, then you could look for a small long.
Stop would go below the SFP, and then I would even be targeting that POC.
Uh, okay.
That's kind of not a good risk to reward. You maybe be able to long as soon as you reclaim the SFP, and that would make it a decent long, but it's a bit more risky, in my opinion.
Overall, I think we're coming down lower on Sui.
You're in at 95 cents. Uh, man. Look look, your POC is at 95 cents. If you get up to 95 cents and you start to see a sell-off, you might be able to get out at break even. But, honest quite honestly, you can see we lost the POC, and now we're starting to kind of chop in here below it. You are starting to see a little bit of selling exhaustion in here.
So, you might be able to get a move up to the POC for a larger corrective move, but you've got to be careful because 95 is now being flipped into resistance.
Uh, LEK USD.
T.
Was it LEK? Let's see here.
Yeah, LEK. Uh, Or is that Yeah, let me know about the LEK one. For now, I'll move on here. ABC on the weekly from the beginning, we hit the one Okay, a big a big 2956. Are you talking about Bitcoin? Uh, ABC on the weekly from the beginning, we hit the 1.618.
Um let me know a big 2956 what asset you're talking about.
Can you check Hood, please? Yeah, Hood.
All right, I sure can. Hood uh USDT? Is it Is it a stock? Is it this Robinhood one?
Uh Robin Yeah, Robinhood uh trends with BTC normally took off today right before we flew up today. Uh yes, we'll check out Hood. Um Wow, yeah, it is pushing up pretty nicely today.
Well, this looks like a nice little bottoming reversal pattern. Look at like a tap one here, a tap two here, a tap three here. This looks like accumulation. And so, what we can do is we can pull our volume profile of this range. You're breaking out of the value area high with volume today.
You close the daily candle or you close the the market above the highs of the range. Now, the big the very important thing is to watch out because uh you can see actually you had the little SFP, you pulled back barely, and then you closed above. That is actually a really good sign for uh Robinhood. And um you had some very nice bull Well, no.
No bull divs there, but let's go to the 4-hour time frame.
Yeah, this looks like a nice little bottoming formation here.
I would be very cautious because if you start to fall back down underneath these highs, you could see a significant retrace.
And we can even pull from the lows to the highs to this higher low. Yeah, we have to be very careful.
Wait.
I messed that up.
You have to be careful around 102 to 112. We could get a rejection in this zone.
Um what I would be looking at is you have this upper range, right? You had an upper range in in here.
You lost it, and then if you back test that upper range and reject, you're going to continue down. So, what we'll do is we'll pull our volume profile and we'll look at kind of this sideways structure in here.
Okay, there is your sideways structure.
And yeah, the val- value area low is going to be around 99 around $100 real really. So, when you lose a range with volume like this, often times you will form form another range, and if you break out of that lower range, you'll come to back test your previous zone of balance. Your previous zone of balance is going to be right at like 90 a pretty much $100. 100 to 102, I would say. That is going to be your key area to be watching for the back test, right? So, this is going to be a resistance level in here.
And then you can see your POC is in alignment with your 1.236. So, the next resistance level would be this area in here.
Your daily time frame did have nice bull divs. Lower lows here, higher lows here.
Money flow curving to the upside, you got a nice bullish trigger wave. Money flow continuing to curve to the upside.
Uh man, this might continue to push up.
This might continue to push up here.
Yeah, and overall, this thing is pretty bullish. So, what I would be looking at, let's go to the weekly time frame.
And you can see your weekly resistance is going to kind of be coming in right at at the value area high up here.
Uh let's pull it like I guess that's a pretty big gap there, huh? Yeah, it's your POC, you're pretty much going to have a weekly level pretty much at that POC.
Uh you can see that's where the start of that weekly order block is.
Right at that POC. So, 115.
You have a gap to fill right into your value area low and right into your 1 to 1. So, you're if you're you're going to fill this gap, you're going to continue up here pretty quickly. Probably next week if you do get that. And you can see on the weekly time frame you are starting to see money flow curving up on market cipher and it's just crossing into the green on Nami and you did print a bull div on the weekly on Nami with money flow curving up.
Likely this is likely to continue to me.
So, let's pull up uh Fibonacci from the highs to the lows here and yeah, that golden pocket, guys. That this zone in here, golden pocket. And then you can see value area high 786.
So, this is going to be another key resistance. Those are your big three resistances there.
Yeah, it's a 58% drop to the downside.
So, we want to use the log golden pocket.
This you could even pull down to here.
It's kind of a big zone, but that is your big This is your most key resistance of them all.
Now, in the bullish case scenario, you're looking at Let's go to the daily time frame. You're looking at this move up 1 2 1 2 1 2 3.
Man, that's that's going to be kind of hard. Uh maybe this is a contracting 1 2 3 4 5 contracting diagonal. 2 3 4 5.
Yeah, so there is a way to count an impulse here. So, this could be a wave one, you get a wave two, and we're in the wave three now. So, the wave three, you want it to bust through all of that. You want it to go Let's go here, and you want it to go up to the 1.618 or higher. So, pretty much that value area high.
I would extend this box now up to here. So, that's your big in an in the impulse of which remember, we have weekly bull divs. This absolutely could play out. Wave one, wave two, you're going to see a wave three, and then maybe a four to back test the PLC, and then you're going to see a five in here, probably taking out the highs.
So, um you don't want to reject here.
You kind of even want to bust through this. You might be able to see So, within the bigger wave three, let's do this. Um within the bigger wave three, this would be a one, this would be a two, your three would come up here, four, and then your five would probably take out the highs, right? But, within your within this bigger wave three, you're looking for a five wave count.
So, we would be looking at this as a wave one, wave two, and then this wave three might break up to the um golden pocket area. You might see a pullback to back test value area low, and then you might come up to the 1.618.
And this five wave move is just going to be part of a bigger wave three.
So, that's what I would be looking at right there.
Uh Caesar.
Yeah, take all their money.
Um C-train absolutely man, welcome in my friend. And Arping, thank you so much for posting uh the links in the chat.
Guys, remember if you do want to join the Telegram, all you have to do is join Bybit using my affiliate link, deposit a minimum deposit of $100 or more. Once you've done that, you click the Telegram link that Arping posted in the chat or it's in the description of the video.
And uh type in {slash} verify and your user ID for Bybit and you'll get into the Telegram.
Uh Liam, much love to you, man.
Bon giorno bon giorno.
Uh love you, Liam.
It's good to see you in here as always.
Um yeah, it's a small amount of money.
It's literally only $400. I transferred it from my Kraken account over to Bybit.
Okay, Colin, I will reach out. Let me do this actually right now. Um Hold on. I hope you guys can't see this screen, but uh I am going to reach out to my guy right now.
Um Colin, are you in my Telegram? If you are, will you or if you are friends with me on Telegram, will you DM me like a brief summary of that and I will send that over to Alan and I'll see if I can help this get fixed for you, okay?
Uh I'm also going to take a screenshot of this chat right now and send that over to him.
I really don't want you guys to have any problems there.
It's been over 5 hours. Oh, it's okay.
So, it this is very recent. Okay, calling I'll I'll I'll talk Allen's really really good at helping out with this stuff. So, um I'll see if I can't get this worked out with you, man.
Uh if you were if you really wanted to nerd out, take these BTC pairs, put them against each other in AI, different combinations and permutations across multiple time frames as to find trends and precursors. Well, Caesar, that sounds very interesting. I don't know if I'm a I don't know if I'm qualified as you are to do that.
That sounds very interesting, though.
XLM XLM USD Stellar. I heard Stellar Yeah, Stellar's breaking out. Um I heard Stellar was a big news. Up Wall Street has been eyeing Stellar Lumen, some big partnership with like Wall Street and stuff like that. I don't know exactly what it is, but uh you are seeing a very nice breakout of this lower range. You can see this lower range in here.
You're breaking out with a high amount of volume. Crossing up Look at bull uh actually not bull divs, but a nice little divergences there on the daily.
Fact of the mat- matter is you're breaking out of this sucker pretty nicely with high volume.
What we can do is we can You can see we have an upper range in here.
So, we'll pull a volume profile of that upper range.
Uh let's go to like right here.
Yeah, and then you can see how you lost that upper you came down to value area low, you bounced, you rejected POC, lost it, and then you flipped that value area low to resistance. See how here Oh, I guess depending on where you pull that volume profile.
But, uh you're coming back up to test that value area low. Whether you pull it to here, and that this to me is the better spot. But, look at your your um coming up to value area low to back test it now. So, this is a very very key thing.
If you break out, you back test value area low, and you reject, you can expect to come probably come down and take out both of these lows together.
If you can get back inside this volume profile, you're very likely to continue up to the POC, but also you're probably you might be able to continue up even higher.
So, let's make sure these levels are good levels. Is this weekly All right, that's an old weekly. We have to get rid of that. I'm going to just get rid of most of this cuz this is probably very old. Our bear Our bullish pitchfork has been broken.
Uh we'll keep that.
That is now going to be a weekly level.
Okay, and that weekly is fresh still at value area high.
We've got a nice monthly in there.
Okay, and on the daily time frame, let me just hide this real quick, and I want to look at whether this could be a corrective move.
Cuz you can see here, this looks pretty impulsive.
This looks like a three-wave corrective move, and then this looks pretty impulsive as well.
So, you didn't come down to the 1.618, which is a good thing.
You're probably in between the one {dot} 236 and the Yeah, so you can see this. You're coming down between the one to one and the one {dot} 236, and you formed a range and and somewhat of an accumulation range right in between these two, right? So, that would be the area where you would expect to find a bottom. If this was a bigger ABC, you want to find that range in here, and now we're breaking out of it. So, that is actually somewhat of a good sign that we could see continuation up here.
I want to pull that larger descending channel of this correction, so we go here and we pull it down to these lows.
Yeah, and you can see where did you bounce from? The very bottom of the channel. Guys, damn, this is nice. So, this is a corrective channel in here.
You came down, you you found some accumulation at the bottom of the channel, one last bounce at the bottom of the channel, and now we're breaking up to the midline, which is also the back test of your value area low of the larger upper range. Value area low, channel midline, right here. Now, guys, we absolutely could see a pullback from here, but it would, in my opinion, the pullback would be, and let me just get this kind of out of the way.
In my opinion, the pullback would be, you know, maybe to back test the range highs at like 18 six-ish.
But, um yeah, clearly resistance. I would not be longing now.
Would not be longing now, but it is trying to break inside. Man, we If we close the daily candle above two two three six, let's say two three five, you're you're looking pretty dang good here to con- for continuation up.
And in that case, we can pull a golden pocket from the correction highs to the correction lows.
Yeah, and your golden pocket is going to be right on top of that monthly level.
And you see we have the weekly there.
That naked daily is probably still fresh.
Let's look at naked weeklies cuz it's not going to let us look that far back on naked dailies.
Okay, it's not even going to let us look that far back on naked weeklies.
Naked monthly at 32 4.
And if we take a golden pocket from the C-wave high to the C-wave low, that's where your golden pocket is going to be. So, we have some major resistances, guys.
First off, the this area right here, I would be looking for a short. Like pretty much no matter what, you're going to get some sort of reaction from this level.
Specifically, the naked monthly in the 0.65.
Now, above that, look at this cluster of resistance. This is where we could form some significant resistance, and I know this is a big area in here. But, you've got the golden pocket, a monthly level, a naked daily point of control, a weekly level, a 786, [clears throat] and the top of the channel. So, like if we do something like this bullishly over the next, you know, that is going to be Actually, I would be expecting Maybe this is going to continue, reject here, reject, and then you're going to get that continuation up to that area.
Um I would be at least looking for some sort of short from this resistance here.
32 cents, 32 and 1/2 cents, uh 31 to 32 and 1/2 cents.
First order of business, you're at your first major resistance right now.
You're at your first major resistance. I would not be longing here.
If anything, I would be looking for some shorts. Let's see if we have confirmation for shorts at all. 8-hour money flow looks good, no bear divs. Uh you are topping out on your momentum, though, meaning you could see a small pullback.
4-hour, nice money flow.
Uh slight weird bear divs in here.
But, money flow looks really strong.
Let's go to the 2-hour.
2-hour money flow looks good, but you do have bear divs, bear divs. Yeah, I would I would be cautious. I would definitely not be longing where we're at right now.
You might get a pullback from where we're at right now.
If anything, this looks like a a 1 2 1 2, you're in your three here, maybe, and this is a four five four five. So, that could be the end of your third wave.
Uh actually, no, that would Yeah, that could be the end of a impulse 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 4 5, and then you could pull back a little bit, and then you could see continuation in a wave three.
The pullback would probably be a little bit bigger. So, let's do this. We'll go from the lows of the impulse to the highs of the impulse.
And we want to look at that 382, which is in a strong trend support.
Yeah, that would be really nice. And oftentimes in a pullback, you'll pull back to those lower degree wave fours.
So, if you do come down to 19 8, guys, that could be a nice little long position from there.
But, XLM breaking up very nicely. You're at resistance.
Uh very very locally, we're trying to break above the midline and flip it to support, which is very key.
But, Quiles, good catch on this. I mean, this thing could start to run like NEAR and ZEC did.
This thing could really really start to run here. I am not longing right now.
Like I said, we are at very very key first major very key of resistance.
That is going to be here. That is going to be your value area low.
Going to go right middle previous range value area low.
And your channel midline. And look at where you bounced from, the very bottom of the channel perfectly. Man, that would have been nice to catch that.
If this keeps going, we might come all the way up. You guys, we might come all the way up here.
Um Machi, they won't won't make any more gaps after today, but there's still gaps to fill down to 10k and 79k.
Is XRP going to follow? You know, um XLM had some sort of partnership, so I I'm not sure. Sudeep, much love to you.
Thank you for being here. Thank you for modding. And Mark Dutch, much love to you, man. It's good to see you in here.
I'm going to deposit $1,000 to enter the Telegram just to get access to all of his webcams. Mark, yes, sir. Yes, please.
Pepe, yeah, we can look at Pepe.
Thoughts on BTC, let's check BTC real quick.
My thoughts on BTC is we're are still going to come a little bit lower.
Um we are So, from Tuesday's rejection, we're in a In my opinion, we're in a double one two impulse. One two one two three four five four and we're in the fifth and final wave. Now, I really like this 717 support.
Uh it's your anchored VWAP from the 60K lows. It's also your golden pocket and it's the bottom of our bigger ascending channel, right? You see this ascending channel in here, it's the bottom of the ascending channel.
Um the fifth wave. So, if we're we're coming in here and we're looking at the fifth wave, we're in the second fifth wave, right?
We're in the final legs of this impulse down from 828. But, within this fifth wave, so if we're concentrating on this high on Tuesday, you can see we have a wave one, we have a a running flat or a flat in a wave two.
This is all a wave three to me. Now, cuz we have to zoom in here. 1 2 3 4 5, right?
So, that's your wave three ending here.
Now, we're looking for a corrective move in a wave four before seeing potentially a dump in a wave five to end this leg down, the fifth and final leg down. So, I do think one more low might be necessary.
Um if we look at pulling that we did reject uh pulling our wave four targets, so going from the highs of three to the lows of three, and we look at our wave four targets, we rejected directly from the 0.5 today.
Your wave four target.
We are currently rejecting. So, now, could this chop a little bit more and maybe could we even take the high one more time? Sure.
Um money flow is starting to come out again. You can see we have the bear divs here on the one-hour time frame.
If anything, we could even look to pull a volume profile. Yeah, uh and let's let's now do this. We're going to go and look at the last 15-minute 15-minute time frame. We're going to just look at this last pull down from the highs to the lows, and let's put on our golden pocket 786.
Golden pocket, is it right at the value area high?
We might be able to even take a short here.
Stop we we could put the stop above the 786 even and we could target down here a 9:1 risk-to-reward ratio.
Or if you want to be more safe, you put the stop above those highs. That's still a 4:1 risk-to-reward ratio there.
Um so let's actually look at this. If we're coming up here during stream 738-ish 73 uh 750 to 738, I might look for a short a scalp short there.
>> [snorts] >> Yeah, Mark, it's so good to see you in here, man.
Uh certain pairs equations play out quite impressive. Yeah, that's cool, Caesar. You'll have to show me some of that sometime. Teal House Coffee and Bakery, much love to you. It's good to see you in here.
Mday666, sound is the sound bad?
Guys, let me know is the sound bad?
They told me Bitcoin to hundo K. It's now at 70. Yeah, right?
I mean, we've been waiting for Bitcoin to go to 100 K for a decade.
It did though for a while.
Livermore cylindrical forming on hood.
I'm not I'm not sure what a Livermore cylindrical is, but Are you long on BTC? No, I am not long on BTC. I am waiting to come down to 716 I or at least hit the naked daily point of control. We have a naked daily point of control. So at the beginning of the stream I talked about a potential scalp long.
If we come down and SFP today's lows into that naked daily, I would potentially take a scalp long.
And the scalp long that I'll be taking, let's say we do and I have an alert set.
You can see uh not there.
I have an alert set on that low already.
So, if we SFP that low, hit the naked daily, and then reclaim it, then I would look for a potential long.
Stop would go below that naked daily, and I would be looking to target probably just the POC of the range.
That's still a 6 and 1/2 to 1 risk-to-reward ratio. My first TP would have to be if we reject value area low.
That's still a 3 and 1/2 risk-to-reward ratio.
I don't know if I'll actually be taking that though, guys, cuz I don't want to baby sit um going into the weekend, and I don't want to baby sit that thing.
Uh if we get the short first, I would I would probably take this, and then um take position pretty quickly.
CME launched 24/7 crypto trading starting today. Wow. Okay. Thank you, Machi HK. So, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, you guys, was an exchange that closed on the weekends, and there would be CME gaps that would be created from that. So, if that's um the case, we aren't going to see any more. That is very very interesting.
Also, uh MicroStrategy deposited a few hundred BTC into Coinbase a few hours ago.
Maybe the big trigger will be Michael Saylor actually selling. Yeah, I I've heard rumors that he might be. So, that that would be interesting as well.
Um when only feet channel. Man, I know, right? Dark Spee, some of these women are making hundreds of K a month off of the selling their feet, man.
Too bad we we guys don't have pretty feet like they do.
Thank you, Mark. Sound is good. Bitcoin bad. Okay.
Uh Time Attack, welcome in, man. A TGIF cheers to you as well.
Yeah, so we have some alerts set on some of the coins, guys. Hype I I am Hype was doing very well, but it is starting to get that selling exhaustion and we are rejecting the top of the channel, right?
So, um we're starting to see that selling exhaustion channel come in.
You can see we have from the lows this big pump 1 2 3 maybe this was uh all of this was a four and then we're in our fifth and final wave in here, but you're starting to see that selling exhaust or buying exhaustion in this case, a buying exhaustion channel come in here and we are starting to see some bear divs forming specifically on like the the 8-hour time frame, you can see bear divs are starting to form.
So, I would be very cautious and uh coming up to 6793 or you know, we're starting to reject the top of the channel again right now.
You can see that third tap of the channel.
The channel I pulled from the low the low and then this middle high in here.
So, I I'm not short on hype yet, but I I'm kind of looking again. Now, remember yesterday I got wrecked uh twice not wrecked, I got stopped out twice in a in a short trade.
I was looking for that golden pocket value area high short.
Right in here and I got got in got stopped out, got in again.
And then this bounce right here was from a pitchfork band. I should have a second if I was I was paying attention to the Coinbase chart, but if I look at my uh Bybit chart the second we bounced there, I should have closed that sucker.
You see, and we're also coming up to the top of a very key pitchfork, guys. So, be very careful. You're at top of a pitchfork starting to form that channel exhaustion or that buying exhaustion in there.
Man.
Okay, value area shifted a bit.
With these new highs, you could see yesterday, this is why I was shorting right here, but as soon as we bounced here, I should have freaking closed that.
Some bear divs, money flow's coming out.
You have bear divs on money flow on the 24 minute.
No bear divs on the hourly. I would actually be watching for a potential Let's Let's pull this volume profile all the way now. You can see the value area high is going to be at the um VWAP. We might get a small VWAP bounce to make another new high, guys, and we could do a super small low time frame scalp.
This would have You would have to get in like right pretty much right away, but you could long this.
I'd probably wait for a little bit of a bounce, stop below the low, and just take out the highs. That could be a super nice scalp, and you could leave some of it open in case this thing keeps breaking.
But you're being If you're doing that, you're being very, very risky cuz you're longing towards the top of a mega pump, right? A mega pump from all the way down at $38.
Let's see. Um I will set an alert there.
Cuz if we come down on the low time frames, let's go to the 15 minute. If this does something like this, a small A B C like that, you could continue.
We can also look at that very low time frame.
Yeah, and then there's your one-to-one target as well.
And then uh you're actually So, let's do this. If you really wanted to be safe, you could set your stop underneath the POC. That's close to a three to one still, guys. That is actually decent.
I probably would take it as two separate trades. I would take this trade here, and then if I get stopped out, I would look to re-enter there.
Re-enter here, and then look to take out the highs.
And my stop in that case, I would still be putting it somewhere I would wait for a little bit of a bounce to recover the 1.236.
And I would be looking at something like that. So either way, we have two decent scalps we could take on hype.
Depending on how we come down, if we break straight through it, I'm not taking it.
Ryan, welcome in, man. Happy Friday to you as well.
Uh Dark Speed, also happy Friday, guys.
Um Tiras Tiras Bull Hostile, um yeah, smash the like, guys. Guys, please, if you get any sort of insight into the market from these live streams, please do hit the like button for me. Also, um remember, if you do want to join the Telegram, all you have to do is join Bybit using my affiliate link in the description.
Deposit the minimum deposit of $100 or more. You can deposit more if you want to get some of those bigger rewards. And once you've done that, you click the Telegram link, and in the Telegram channel, you type in {slash} verify and your user ID, and that'll get you into the Telegram.
Now, recent changes are are in the recent future, some changes are going to be coming to the Telegram where, in order to stay in the Telegram, you have to be actively trading on Bybit, even if it's just a couple trades a month, but you'll have to actively be trading on Bybit to stay in the community.
But, um honestly, guys, it's your money, your profits, you get to trade from it.
It's just um it's encouraging you guys to stay active. Um Bybit does a a to manage that Telegram, and they're trying to come up with some solutions here cuz we see a lot of people depositing the money and then just exiting pulling the money as soon as they get verified pulling the money out afterwards and still maintaining access to the Telegram and to all the the ver um I don't want to call them signals to all the alerts that I give the updates that I give and um we just kind of want to minimize that as much as possible. I really want to build a a community of active participants.
Livo Livermore cylinder is a very bullish pattern hood take a look into it when you have time. Okay, I will cuz I have never heard of Livermore cylinder pattern. So thank you Mark for letting me know about that and crypto clan world.
Jesse Livermore was a famous trader crazy life story.
Um thank you guys. I will look into that. Now hood did look bullish based off Elliot waves as well, right? We just looked at it based off Elliot waves and it's looking pretty bullish as well.
Um honestly you're breaking out of this range with high volume today. You you closed the daily uh you closed the market above your range highs.
Now coming up very soon here is that one-to-one or yeah one-to-one trend base Fibonacci extension in the back test of your value area low of that upper range. So we have to be careful around that nine about $100 999.
That could be your first major resistance. Now if this is actually going to break out remember this Elliot wave count we're looking at a bullish count a one two three four five taking out the highs you're in your third wave right here.
One two maybe the third wave is going to come up to the golden pocket the POC the weekly level.
It's also uh was that a naked monthly point of control?
Naked monthly point of control there.
Naked monthly point of control, it's probably going to be a naked weekly as well.
Naked weekly is a little bit above that.
Naked weekly up here.
So anyways, I I agree. I tend to agree it's going to be bullish. But we just have to be careful as traders, we have to keep both scenarios in mind.
Remember this had weekly bull divs on it like on Nami and this is where Nami really shines, guys. You can see as we were coming down and making these lows in here. Lower lows in the price action, bull divs, money flows just crossing into the green here. And with market cipher, money flow starting to come up again and your momentum waves coming up.
So I have to agree that um Hood is likely to continue pushing higher here.
Uh maybe even breaking the highs, man.
That that'd be cool. I I might have to go in and buy some Hood on spot.
But I wouldn't Yeah, I would want to wait for a small pullback probably.
How to join the Telegram, Jaws? Um I you join Bybit Fi using my affiliate link in the description and deposit a minimum deposit of $100 or more. You can deposit more money if you want to get some of the bigger rewards.
Uh for instance, they give you um 20% deposit bonus up to a $1,000 deposit. So if you deposit $1,000, you can get $200 for free. And they're giving 10% deposit bonuses up to $20,000. So if you deposit 10,000, you get um a $1,000 futures bonus. If you deposit 20,000, you get a $2,000 futures bonus.
Um but you deposit the minimum amount is $100 and that is your money, by the way.
You're not paying it to me, you're not paying it to Bybit Fi. It's your money, you're just depositing it on the exchange to trade with.
And uh once you've done that, once you've signed up and deposited the minimum amount, you can click the Telegram link in the description of this video.
And in the Telegram channel, you it's a verified channel, you type in {slash} verify, and then your Bybit user ID number, and that'll automatically get you into the Telegram.
All right, I'm going to stay for just a few more minutes, guys. I want to see if Bitcoin can come up to that golden pocket value area high, and if we can, that is when we could maybe take a short.
I want to check NEAR as well. Oops, NEAR USD.
Man, NEAR I was hoping to hit that 786.
NEAR could be forming some sort of head and shoulders pattern in here. I hope not, but it could be.
I really want NEAR to come up to 308.
But you can see locally with this local range, we broke above the POC, we flipped it to support, so I was looking for a move 786 value area high, even maybe grabbing this liquidity in here.
Uh it's just chopping. It's starting to get some exhaustion though, guys, and like it's not good that we broke market structure bearishly. We took out all of these lows here, so we broke market structure bearishly, and because of that, we could see this downtrend continue.
One, two, one, two, and then you could see a big three. You could see some four or fives coming in.
And near still overall I would say near still is in a impulse to the upside, right? From this low at a dollar 24 we have our wave one, wave two, wave three here and we could be in a larger corrective move to come down to that 221 level, 222 to 221 and then we might see a move up in a wave five.
Now that [snorts] wave five could I would like it if it would bring us up into our golden pocket at weekly and it's our pitchfork band up there.
Or this is the pitchfork band, but And what's important to understand about this weekly at 308 is that it is your previous range value area high. You can see this range lasted about a year.
And then you broke it down with high volume. So now if we we're back inside the range, which is good and this is what I'm talking about that 0.5 Fibonacci is at 221. It's also the back test of this value area low.
So now that we're back in the range, we did kind of reject the POC. You can see we rejected the POC. So now if we come down and we hold support in that previous range value area low, you have high likelihood of coming up to value area high, which is the weekly.
So Near is trading very, very nicely though. I I really like Near to continue to the upside, but locally we might see some more down downwards movement to 221.
We don't want to hit the golden pocket at 204.
Yeah, thank you Sudeep for posting the buy five link and the Telegram link.
Weasels, is that a coin?
Weasels?
Did I spell that right?
Uh, yeah, I'm not sure.
Um, let's see here. So, we have a couple coins injective. By the way, I hit that take profit on injective. I'm out of that long position completely on injective.
Well, Trump's pumping a little bit of luck as well.
So, some of the biggest losers, guys, I also like to go into top losers, like say, and um, look at Sui, you know, some of these, and I like to look at those, Ondo, and if they're in impulses, but they're seeing a big pullback for the day, then we can look at like maybe continuing the trend. Now, Sui, or say, excuse me, is in a little down-trending channel right now.
We bounced from the bottom of the channel today, but we rejected the midline, and it's also the back test of a pitchfork that we lost.
We lost this bigger pitchfork. We tried to get back inside of it. We fell to the value area low.
We tried to get back inside of it, and we're rejecting again. So, I actually am looking at potentially coming down to the POC.
If we can bounce from the POC, that would be nice. Like, I would want us to chop throughout the week and in this small channel.
If we can continue to chop in this small channel and see this kind of corrective price action throughout the weekend until we can get down to that POC, and then see maybe a move up.
So, I'm going to be looking for bull divs, but money flow doesn't look good.
You do have bull divs on Nami, but not on market cipher.
Um, I Yeah, I would be looking to come down to about um, 6185, 06185.
It's the people that join and don't trade. Oh, yeah. Okay, thanks Dark Spee.
Uh yeah, gold. We can check gold.
I'm still in the long position on gold.
I did take a profit, guys, at uh 4546, at the back test of the value area low.
I took a profit. I longed the daily.
Remember, this was our daily and our gold golden pocket down here.
So, and I let you guys know that we were hitting the daily when we were coming down there. I let you guys know in the Telegram. Now, I this I did I'm not going to lie. I had a limit order set there. And I don't enter a lot on limit orders, but I had a limit order set there because it was a daily in a golden pocket.
Um I'm in at uh 4378 exactly. 4378.
I have taken a TP1 and I took out 50% at the back test of this value area low. My next take profit is going to be right around 4700. You can see we have a naked weekly point of control. We have a naked daily point of control. We have our range point of control and it's our 786 Fibonacci. So, I think I set it to um I didn't do the 786. I did it at the naked weekly. 4694 is my next limit TP order.
But, if we reject here, if we can't get back inside this smaller we have This is part of a much larger corrective range. This is a corrective range in here, in my opinion, and it could take a year to play out. But, from this low, we're also in a smaller range. This smaller range in here, right?
And so, I'm just playing the volume profile of that range, which is this smaller volume profile, and we're back testing the value area low.
If we can get back above that, you can see that both ranges have volume gaps that would bring us up to 4,700 pretty quickly or 4,690 pretty quickly, right?
So, we need to get back inside this range.
If we don't, then if we reject here, then I would expect continuation down and probably coming down to the 786. You might see a bounce from there, but we're probably going to come down to your pitchfork midline again, which is where I longed I longed at uh 4206, I think it was.
Uh yeah, it was this box here. After we started to bounce from the midline and reclaim this box. I longed 4206 and I took profit at the golden pocket up here. There was a golden pocket up here.
But overall, gold um looking pretty good, you know. I think that eventually we could make new all-time highs.
Looking at this as on the weekly time frame.
1 2 3 and then you're going to see a four five. I mean, this was and this is probably the start of a bigger third wave, right?
What was it from here? This is some sort of running flat in here.
1 2 3 4 5 maybe up to 8, you know, in a few years we might be at 8,000 or 2 years might be at $8,000, something like that.
But I'm pretty bullish on gold overall.
Uh you did have some pretty bad bear divs in here.
On the weekly time frame, you can see bear divs money flows draining out. And that means that this corrective range could continue for a bit more. And I'm sorry, I know this looks like absolute dog here, but uh XAUUSDT um Bybit uh not Bybit.
Yeah.
We're in that corrective channel. You can see this corrective channel. We just keep bouncing from the midline. So, that midline was a golden pocket in a daily.
You can pull this midline You can pull this golden pocket here.
Golden pocket was there.
And then, of course, you can see that your daily level was there.
It's a little bit different on USD T or XAU than on actual gold. So, I was going by the gold levels.
But, uh very nice bounce from that channel midline.
And if we get back up to uh let's pull that small volume profile.
The POC is going to be at 40 4,700 pretty much. And then, the value area high is going to be at the top of the channel. If you get up there, like you're going to do something like this.
Maybe reject, come back, backtest that value area low, and then you could come up and hit the top of the channel in confluence with that value area high.
And then, you might continue this correction, guys.
But, either way, um looking my next TP 47 or 4694.
After that, it's going to be 4820-ish.
And then, if we break above that, you got your macro golden pocket at 5,000.
Um if you get up there, I would really be cautious of another three-wave move, right?
So, you have kind of a big Uh in here, there was a three-wave move down, I believe, on lower time frames.
Or maybe I was looking at it like this.
Three-wave move here. You could see a three-wave move here.
Reject from golden pocket, and then another three-wave move kind of to see a bigger WXY correction that would last you maybe a year or so.
A corrective range for a year.
Yeah, uh the fees for owing a trade for a year must be I'm not saying I'm keeping it. I'm not saying I'm uh going to keep one trade open for a year, that's for sure.
You won 130 for trading in the by by community. Awesome little Rick 69. That is so cool, man. Good job.
Uh okay, guys. It is a Friday. Not a lot's going to be happening. Um remember on Bitcoin very very locally and I'll try to keep you updated on this in the Telegram.
But if we come up to and I know this chart is giant mess. Let me turn off our naked dailies.
Uh we're coming up right now. So, hold on. Let's just see how we react once we get up here.
Coming up to that 73 7 to 73 8.
We're not really seeing bear divs right now.
Man, this might continue to bust through this.
If I don't see my confirmations, I'm not taking the short.
And right now I'm not seeing confirmation here, guys. We haven't hit it yet. But I'm not I'm not taking a short if I don't see confirmation.
Another thing is you can see we barely front ran the top of the 0.5.
So, we could come SFP the highs and actually hit the 0.5 around 74 uh let's say 240. 74 240-ish.
Yeah, it it could be going up. It doesn't look like we have confirmation to short here.
But overall, I still am expecting the impulse from 78k our impulse from 78k that we rejected or uh yeah, pretty much 78k. By the way, there was a naked daily here. Look at Watch this naked daily that was right there.
It was an SFP of the Monday high, which is a holiday high right into a naked daily.
It was perfect.
But, this all of this chop in here could be just part of a wave four correction of this impulse.
Right? You got your one, two, three, four, and then you could get one more low in a five to finish that larger double one two impulse, right?
One, two, one, two, three, four, five, four, and then that is your five.
After that though, the next low that we make I'm I'm looking for a nice retrace. And I'm talking about it could last a week, two weeks, or so, but I want to be pulling a golden pocket from the highs of the move to wherever the lows are. And right now I'll put it on the current lows, but wherever those lows are going to be. And you can see coming up to our channel midline.
Remember guys, if we bounce from the bottom of the channel, we rejected the top of the channel, lost the midline, back tested the midline. If you come down to the bottom, you bounce, watch for that corrective move up to the midline, and if it rejects, you're going to see continuation.
And that's probably when the channel will break down. The bigger channel will break down.
And you could see that big move down to six 58 56k.
But, that's it, guys. Um I am probably not going to take this short position, just letting you know right now.
I don't see my confirmations here.
So, this was an idea we had, but it doesn't look like it's going to play out.
But, you guys have a good weekend. Trade safe out there. Um appreciate all of you. Please hit the like button on your way out, guys. If you didn't hit the like button, um come join me next week. We're going to keep covering a lot of the altcoins.
We're going to if if we By the way, over the weekend, if I see any good alerts, all these alerts that we just set, if I see any of these good alerts get go off, and I'm going to enter a trade, I will let you guys know in the Telegram. Or if I'm taking profit on one of my trades, I'll let you guys know in the Telegram.
So, if you guys want those um updates over the weekend, then join the Telegram. Otherwise, I'll see you next Monday, uh make a video next Monday, and then Tuesdays, Thursdays, Fridays for live streams. So, much love to you guys.
I appreciate you all. Hope you have a good
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