James Spann's Afternoon Briefing - Monday 5.18.26

Añadido: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]watching the Alabama Weather Network.

[00:00:05]>> It's Monday evening, the 18th of May.

[00:00:07]This is James Span. Alabama's weather quiet today, but feeling like summertime. The due points are creeping up. Humidity higher. It's going to be like that all week. And we will see the return of scattered showers and thunderstorms later this week, especially for the northern half of the state. Let's discuss things as we approach the Memorial Day weekend.

[00:00:26]There's the upper air look. And again, a very intense, vigorous trough over the Great Rockies, the Rockies. And that's producing some really nasty conditions out across the Great Plains where they're going to see some uh severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in coming hours. In fact, some have already formed there. But around here, we're in good shape. The ridge in place, and that's keeping those storms well to the north and west. That's the visible satellite view. Got a field of cumulus clouds across the state. But yeah, buddy, those are uh those pretty nasty storms forming out of northern Kansas. Uh we've got let's see as I'm looking at the screen here one two three tornado warning polygons already and they could see some very violent storms out there for the next six or seven hours around here just warm and dry mostly mid to upper 80s but look at Selma they've hit 90 we've got 89 for Montgomery 88 for Huntsville Birmingham at 87 we'll check the watch warning map we have a tornado watch for parts of Kansas and Nebraska and that is a PDS watch, meaning it is a particularly dangerous situation. The yellow there, the green, those are flash flood watches. The brown, those are wind advisories. Got a severe thunderstorm watch for much of Michigan.

[00:01:40]And also, we've got freeze warnings in effect for parts of the high plains. And a winter storm warning in effect for the mountains of Wyoming. That's a pretty classic looking May map right there.

[00:01:50]Very active. Again, we've got this level four out of level five risk of severe storms for parts of Kansas, Nebraska, the southeastern tip of Nebraska in the northwestern tip of Missouri, the red on that map. Uh surrounding there, there's an enhanced risk down into parts of extreme northern Oklahoma and into southern Iowa. The broad risk running from uh near Abalene, Texas up into Michigan, Wisconsin, and the Great Lakes. Tomorrow, we have a level two out of five risk from Texas to northern New England along a front. And then by Wednesday, we do not expect any severe storms here because the front is running into the ridge, which means there's hardly any upper air support. The front slows down and no doubt we'll see the return of scattered showers and storms.

[00:02:37]But organized severe weather, no. We've got marginal risks well to the northeast and west of Alabama.

[00:02:45]So rain for the next seven days valid through Monday morning of next week. The better numbers across the northern third of the state amounts there in the two to two and a half inch range and we'll take that uh about 1 in Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Aniston, Gadston under 1/2 in for South Alabama. And we'll go through the modeling here. Model fans European 12Z run 4:00 tomorrow. Still got the ridge in place here. And again, that warm air will off that kind of suppresses the showers. So most of the state will be dry. There could be a few small showers, but probably not many.

[00:03:20]And again, highs well up into the 80s. A few spots maybe touching 90. We'll check the high resolution her model. Valid tomorrow evening at 6:00. And you can see maybe a couple of isolated showers over the northeastern corner of the state, maybe a couple of showers in southeast Alabama, but most of the state, no rain tomorrow. The organized batch of rain and storms over Arkansas.

[00:03:44]So Wednesday, this surface front approaches the ridge a little weaker and that should open the door for an increase in the number of showers and storms, especially for the northern half of the state on Wednesday, north of Interstate 20. Showers in South Alabama Wednesday should be very widely spaced.

[00:04:01]And I guess there could be a morning shower Wednesday with an outflow boundary from the storms uh from tomorrow night, but the bulk of the scattered showers and storms Wednesday will likely come during the afternoon and evening hours. The peak of the daytime heating process when the air is most unstable. Highs mid 80s. Same thing on Thursday. The front totally runs out of gas. There's no way it's going to push through with this configuration. So again, scattered showers and storms, a mixture of clouds and sunshine, the better coverage over the northern half of the state. Highs mid 80s. Friday, pretty much the same idea. Maybe a little bump in the number of showers and storms over West Alabama, maybe southwest Alabama, but it's the same idea. Warm, humid, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Memorial Day weekend, it's the same idea. Uh it's going to be warm.

[00:04:53]It's going to be humid. highs in the 80s and we'll see scattered random showers and storms about. Understand it doesn't mean a wash out. We're getting into the time of the year where just about every day we'll have that chance of these random scattered showers and storms.

[00:05:06]That is a fixture late May, June, July, August. It's that time of the year. And the problem is we don't know exactly when and where they pop up in advance.

[00:05:16]Nobody does until they get on radar. You can watch the trends. Uh but that's the idea for Saturday. evidence the ridge might be a little stronger Sunday. And if that's the case, the showers could be fewer in number on Sunday.

[00:05:30]Again, highs in the 80s. And a week from today, Memorial Day, Monday, the 25th of May, got a trough that's over Texas.

[00:05:40]And again, that could bring a number of showers and thunderstorms a little west of here, but it's the same idea for Monday. Partly sunny, highs in the 80s.

[00:05:48]A few spots could see a shower or storm mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. So, let's go out there to the middle of next week. This is Wednesday, May 27th.

[00:06:00]And again, that trough over Texas actually is in retrogression. It moves a little back to the west, but we still got this southwest flow aloft. And that just could open the door for a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms toward the middle part of next week. And that's not a bad thing. We need to see some good soil moisture coming into June. In fact, check this out. This is rain for the next 15 days coming off the European Ensemble, the AI version. And the mean of the Ensemble members, the green line, it's right at 4 in 4 in of rain between now and the 2nd of June. If we can get that, if that can happen, that's a very beneficial type rain for us. Temperatures off the national blind models be close to 90 tomorrow. And then after that, mostly mid 80s for the rest of the week and the upcoming holiday weekend. Latest long range guidance May 26 through the 1st of June.

[00:06:56]Temperatures little above average with that ridge staying in place. Hey, hey, hey. School year is not done yet. Let's roll some Children's of Alabama Kid Cam.

[00:07:05]The little ones today at the Harris Early Learning Center in Birmingham.

[00:07:10]This is an amazing facility in Birmingham. They do such a great job. Uh the teachers there, let me tell you what, these kids love to talk about weather and they love to learn about weather. Had a great session today. And we love cupcakes. Boy, those were outstanding. Uh and I love that. That's that's the best looking respect the polygon dress I think I've ever seen.

[00:07:29]That is too good. Uh but some very well-dressed students there. But we talked about how storms are good, a vital part of the water cycle. We need them. We talked about lightning. We talked about tornadoes and hurricanes, all kind of stuff. But it was so so much fun today. Always love coming to see my friends at the Harris Early Learning Center in Birmingham. Thanks a lot for a great visit earlier today. You guys are looking good.

[00:07:55]Tomorrow going to be in Florence. Got a homeschool group there. Then Wednesday, got a homeschool group in Shelby County.

[00:08:03]Thursday I'll be at the OS Learning Center, Our Lady of Sorrows in Homewood.

[00:08:09]And then Friday, Phillips Academy in Birmingham. They're still in school this week. And Saturday, I will be at the Alabama Jubilee in Decar Point Mallard.

[00:08:19]If you've never been to this thing, you need to go. It's It's amazing with the big hot air balloons and there's so many things to do. It's really good. I'll be there between 1 and 4 o'clock on Saturday. Uh Alabama Jubilee indicator.

[00:08:33]It's Monday. You know what that means.

[00:08:34]Tonight is Weather Brains Night. The weekly show for weather geeks, dweebs, nerds, dorks, and weenies. 7:00 Central time, youtube.com/weatherbrains.

[00:08:44]The audio version comes out late tonight, early tomorrow morning. I will be on ABC 3340 News this evening, and you can catch my forecasts every day on great radio stations around the state, including at Birmingham 987 Kiss. Thanks for watching. Have a wonderful Monday evening, and God bless. The Challenger Learning Center of Northeast Alabama invites fifth and sixth grade students across Blunt, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburn, Dicab, Edawa, Jefferson, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Telica counties to enter the 250 inventions and innovations competition.

[00:09:18]Pick the greatest American STEM invention of the past 250 years and tell us why it matters. Get your official entry form from your school or email STEM250 challenger.org.