Eight Hundred Days of Consolidation. Now Breaking?

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00][music] [music] [music] >> Hello everyone. My name's Jean, let's talk crypto. This is where you subscribe for daily Bitcoin updates and technical analysis. [music] We track the price of Bitcoin as a proxy for the cryptocurrency markets at large.

[00:00:20]Today is May 18th, 2026.

[00:00:25]And today I want to talk about why despite most crypto market enthusiasts being extremely bearish, and for good reason, based off what you're seeing on the Bitcoin chart and in Bitcoin's price action, I'm going to tell you why this is one of the most bullish times we've had in crypto in a very long time.

[00:00:51]So, if that sounds interesting to you, then watch until the very end. Hope everyone's having a great day. Let's get into it. Let me explain. All right. So, let's start with Bitcoin as per usual.

[00:01:00]We're on the four-hourly time frame. And Bitcoin has done more or less what I thought it would, right? It wasn't perfect in my um in my analysis in saying that it was going to go to I think I I said I was looking for 75k as a target to the downside.

[00:01:22]But before that, I actually was expecting a retest of the midline. Let me get my uh my tool here. I was expecting something like this before heading down to this region, okay? And so, we didn't necessarily do that. We broke the channel straight away, but I'm still expecting this retest of the midline. As I explained in the previous video, you'd been going in a range for 10 days. Now, that's not the longest time, but it's still significant because you do indeed have a range of price action, right, in Bitcoin, which must be retested at the midline before the break occurs. So, right now, you are down and broken down from this channel. The only way to complete the breakdown is with a retest of the heartline or the point of control. So, that's what I expect. I expect Bitcoin to come back to around 80K, retest that midline, then break the channel once more. Now, not everybody is seeing that. Not everybody is calling for that, but most everybody can acknowledge that Bitcoin is extremely bearish. At least most decent analysts, you know, looking at Bitcoin on, you know, small time frame, high time frame. Right now, you have four red days in a row. It's significantly bearish. And the most bearish thing about it is that you rejected at very important resistance, right? If you wanted to say Bitcoin was bullish, right, you would have to have proven the bullish thesis by breaking high time frame resistances, right? And if you don't know this chart, let me zoom out for you.

[00:03:20]Here's what we're talking about. We're talking about a 200-plus day resistance here, okay? Let me zoom out a little more in case you're not familiar with the chart. This is what Bitcoin's been doing since October of last year, right?

[00:03:32]So, you can see, since October of last year, we've been dropping, consolidating, dropping, consolidating.

[00:03:40]We're We've been in a strong downtrend.

[00:03:42]So, high time frame, it's a strong downtrend. That hasn't broken. So, first, let me say, very simplistically, for anybody to be bullish on Bitcoin, you would have to, you know, any good analyst to be bullish on Bitcoin would have to have seen that high time frame 200-plus day trend break.

[00:04:06]All right? And there's no evidence of that. Okay, this is not a break. This is a wick above resistance, right? So, that's one thing that, you know, says Bitcoin's been bearish since October of 2025. It hasn't changed. Nothing's changed. This is a small retracement.

[00:04:22]It's a counter correction within the um within the larger scope or context of a larger bearish move. Do you see what I mean?

[00:04:34]The next bearish thing is right here.

[00:04:38]Okay, so this counter correction, this up into the right channel, this wedge that we've been in for almost exactly 100 days now, is resisted by this line right here.

[00:04:54]And that is what we very cleanly rejected off of. So, let's go back on the 4-hourly time frame, and you can see you put in a very easy-to-read high time frame, small time frame, universally accepted bearish reversal pattern, uh you know, with three peaks.

[00:05:14]We call that a head and shoulders pattern. That happened right there.

[00:05:20]So, Bitcoin put in a head and shoulders pattern at a 100-day resistance, also rejected from a larger 200-day resistance. There's a confluence of resistances. It's actually within the nexus of these two resistances. 10 Nine times out Nine times out of 10, the way this resolves is with a larger retracement. Okay, and that's what we've called for. We We've said that for months on the channel. Our next big target for Bitcoin is between 55 and 60k, but it isn't going to go there immediately, okay? So again, I started the video saying what? If, you know, you're a decent analyst, you're, you know, looking at support and resistance, you're able to read it on a Bitcoin's chart, you can see very easily that you're at important resistance, and resistance has been, you know, met as resistance tends to be met, right? Bearishly. And that's exactly what's playing out. Not to say that we're immediately going to dump to 55 to 60k, but that's pretty much the story on Bitcoin. So, your bearishness comes from the um the small time frame price action playing out the way most trade thesis should have been structured, bearishly, all right? So, that's Bitcoin, and I know some people are probably saying, "Dean, you know, what you're saying makes sense.

[00:06:44]Why the hell then are you saying this is one of the most bullish times in all of crypto?" I'm going to get to that, but I just want to tie the bow on Bitcoin.

[00:06:54]So, on the small time frame, I'm actually expecting a small move up. As I said, we have yet to retest the midline of this 10-day channel that Bitcoin broke, and, you know, gave our our downtrend um we gave us a downtrend from through the weekend. So, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and now we're Monday.

[00:07:17]Now, I think we go up slightly around 80k, and then the downtrend continues, retest of the channel's bottom, okay? And this is essentially uh basic channel mechanics. To break a channel, you both need to retest the heartline or the midline or the point of control, okay? And the bottom resistance, if it's a bearish break, okay? Bottom support, rather. It's It's a bearish break, and the bottom support then becomes resistance. So, retest of 80, breakdown, retest of the bottom support now turned resistance, and then the big breakdown. So, that's what I'm seeing for Bitcoin, okay? Again, the thesis was close, right? I just didn't get the order correct. The breakdown to around 75 happened before the retest of the midline, but I still believe that that midline's going to be retested, and that's actually what's currently happening. So, that's Bitcoin. Now, why the hell, having said all of that, can I be bullish on crypto? Now, crypto is a collection of assets, all right? The most popular one is obviously Bitcoin.

[00:08:43]But, Bitcoin is one of thousands, tens of thousands of assets in the cryptocurrency space, all right? Bitcoin is the king coin, the king asset. We use it to track, you know, the sense the pulse of the cryptocurrency market, and that's fine. But, there are also exists a swath a large swath of altcoins, non-Bitcoin assets, that have their own lives, that have their own charts, that have their own markets, right? Although, 90% of the time, um you know, if you're just you happen to look at crypto and and figure out like what's going on, things are following Bitcoin, but there happens to be there so happens to be this time in the larger market cycle on a higher time frame where these altcoins decouple from Bitcoin and start kind of doing their own thing in their own way. This is what we call alt season. And this is rare, but when it happens you can be extremely bullish on alt coins where Bitcoin can be stuck stagnant or, you know, making mod um make making really meager gains to the upside. So, this is exactly what I'm talking about.

[00:10:08]And to really show you what I mean, I'm going to show you the other chart. The other chart is the chart we've been using on this channel um as an analog as a a good indicator for alt coins. There's so many alt coins. There's tens of thousands of alt coins in the cryptocurrency space.

[00:10:28]So, even this indicator is not going to be perfect. This indicator's essentially all of the alt coins minus the top 10 in market cap and then normalized average down.

[00:10:38]I told my clients on I think Saturday morning yeah, I think it was Saturday morning or Sunday morning, I don't remember.

[00:10:45]Um that I was very excited by what I was seeing. And then later on I posted on the community uh page for YouTube um you know, this chart and I just with with the eyes emoji.

[00:11:03]Because as I was saying before, this right here, this 100 days of accumulation is very important.

[00:11:12]Any channel, once again, to be broken you have to first test the midline, the point of control that was there, right?

[00:11:21]Double test of the point of control.

[00:11:23]Boom.

[00:11:24]Now, you break out of the channel and then finally you have to retest the top resistance.

[00:11:33]If it's a bullish break, the top resistance as support. And so, in the bullish thesis for altcoins, what you want to see, or what you would have wanted to see, is exactly that. A break and a retest of this. A failed breakout would be a swing failure pattern back down here or all the way back down there. So, the idea of altcoins collectively stopping at this very important level, the top of these 100 days of accumulation, tells us that this is more likely than not the ensuing move. Very important, okay? And I'm going to zoom in in just a second and show you the anatomy of that retest and mini consolidation, but the other thing I want to note is not only is it, you know, finding support at the top of the channel, it's also finding support at the phi ratio or in the golden pocket of the previous trend, okay? So, look at this. The previous trend is what? The previous trend is what you used the the price action that you used to break out of the channel. That's an impulse, okay?

[00:12:56]Right here. An impulse. And then that found some resistance and it gave you a three-wave correction down to the golden pocket. The golden pocket, for those of you who don't know, is the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of a trend. And that's typically the it's both the maximal retracement that you get in any bullish trend and it's the second wave. So, if you look at Elliott waves, the beginning is obviously wave one. Wave two is usually of a 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.

[00:13:36]Okay? So, this is very wave two-ish. And even if it isn't, it is what you would see in a zigzag retracement. It's extremely bullish.

[00:13:46]Golden pocket retracements are extremely bullish, and that's what you're getting here. So, there's a confluence of things again, golden pocket retracement one, two, the top of the 100-day channel is being retested and holding the price.

[00:14:02]Now, let's zoom in onto cuz it's important to note, how is this finding support? What's it look like? Is it just one tag down and then a move up?

[00:14:17]No. It's more substantive than that, and this is really confidence-inspiring because look at the price action. You're not building So, so, the best way to think about it is this. If you're building an edifice, a building, and you set the foundation, and you just do a shitty job, whatever you build is not going to have structural integrity, and it's likely to topple over. You can't build too high because your your your your foundation is weak, yeah? So, anytime you're looking for a trend that's going or projected to go, you know, a decent amount, you want to have a sturdy base. You don't just want one tap or like, you know, you typically see that in corrections, where you get one small wick down, and then that wick down goes up, but then it comes right back down because there is no base.

[00:15:19]So, what you're seeing here is the opposite. You saw that from the 16th So, on Saturday, we came down.

[00:15:29]We went up.

[00:15:30]We came down. That's an initial break.

[00:15:33]Came up, went down.

[00:15:35]Secondary break. Came up, went down.

[00:15:38]Uh uh pivot. So, basically, you formed a mini accumulation pattern, a mini Wyckoff accumulation pattern, or you can look at it as, you know, Ralph Nelson Elliott's two degrees of AB basing. Uh and a pivot. I called it two two-degree AB AB basing and a pivot. He just called it AB basing.

[00:15:56]In any case, you have an accumulation pattern here. And that accumulation pattern is a as as strong of a foundation as you can build in on the small time frame.

[00:16:10]Okay?

[00:16:12]For a move up.

[00:16:14]And that's not, you know, a move up that's going to go on forever, but you can have a substantive move up given that now you've not only come into support, but you've accumulated into support. Very important. And so, our projected move to the midline of the larger green channel, right? This 40% move in aggregate for altcoins is very very much on the table, very very much likely to to happen. That's the bullishness, and that's the first time, not just in 100 days. I really want to stress this.

[00:16:53]Yes, this channel right here is a 100-day channel of accumulation. I'm not saying that the last time altcoins gave you something like this was, you know, 100 days ago. No. It's even longer than that.

[00:17:07]If you zoom out, you can see this 100-day channel of accumulation is just a small part of a much larger accumulation that's lasted 800 plus days.

[00:17:21]So, this is the culmination of 800 days.

[00:17:25]The past 100 days was just the final part of an 800-day accumulation.

[00:17:34]That is the significance of this.

[00:17:37]That is how long it's been that altcoins have done anything like this because for 800 days, you've been getting corrective moves up and down. Do you see right here? You you tag into support.

[00:17:53]You know, there's no base formed. You just, you know, rocket up. You come right back down. There's no foundation.

[00:17:59]These are all corrective moves. Boom, correction, correction, correction. Not really doing anything, going sideways.

[00:18:05]This is the first time that This is the first time that you're actually making a substantive move to the upside. Now, this chart, and I've said this before, doesn't tell you the whole story because actually, as per this chart, even though you're getting this move, you're likely to get this swing failure pattern on a higher time frame. But, on many individual altcoin charts, that's the beginning of their bull market. That is the official official beginning of alt season, and they're going to look very different than this even this others chart on a higher time frame, right? You're not going to get lower lows out of this. They're going to continue to go up. And uh how do we know that? Well, we don't know anything for sure, but it's very likely that that's the case given what we're seeing on the Bitcoin dominance chart. We talked about this region of price action in Bitcoin dominance as being a retest of this bearish reversal pattern. And that bearish reversal pattern being the top of a, you know, uh a decent decently long uptrend in Bitcoin dominance. And so, remember, Bitcoin dominance going down means altcoins are beating Bitcoin in gains in market cap gains. Okay? So, if Bitcoin dominance is trending down, very important, trending down, not just going down a little bit correctively, but trending down, that is sure fire alt uh that is sure fire alt season. There is no better indication for alt season than this chart, Bitcoin dominance, going down impulsively. And that's exactly what we've been reading on this chart.

[00:19:59]We've said that once this retest completes, you should get a breakdown. And look at this retest, it's rounded. And what do we know about rounded features in technical analysis?

[00:20:13]They usually denote extremities. So, you see rounded features at tops, you see rounded features at bottoms. So, this very much bodes well for the alt season thesis, for the idea that certain altcoins, the bullish ones on a higher time frame, are starting their bull market here and now.

[00:20:37]This is why, my friends, despite what Bitcoin's doing, and despite that chart and the bearishness on that chart, on the small time frames, on the higher time frames, why most people should be extremely bullish in the cryptocurrency space, because the majority of assets in crypto are actually starting their bull market right here, right? You have all of these bearish features on the Bitcoin dominance chart, that is alt season. So, that should not be ignored or understated. Um and I know we've thrown around that term and we've been waiting for this for a while, but that's it.

[00:21:21]That is it. Last thing I'll say is this.

[00:21:24]I talked in the last episode about uh you know, the lunar cycles and how we typically get local market tops at new moons and local market bottoms at full moons. I I always say that and you know, I always look for that. So, the new moon, if I'm not mistaken, was on the 16th on Saturday, okay? So, the the studies show that we typically see a local market top 0 to 3 [music] days after the new moon.

[00:21:58]The new moon, day zero was the 16th, day one 17th, that Sunday, Monday, first day into the trading week.

[00:22:06]That is day two. Most moves, tops, bottoms happen on day two or three.

[00:22:13]So, I'm not I would not be surprised if we got a quick move up in altcoins and that was the top of the first wave up today or at the very latest tomorrow based off of the stats uh the lunar stats. All right. So, that's my uh outlook on what's happening in the crypto market. Hope this was helpful, useful. Like, share, and subscribe if you got value.

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[00:24:08]So that's single asset analysis. Last but not least, I have a lot of exchange partners, about three right now that I'm working with and they focus on on on futures or leverage trading and it's not something that everybody should do. This is something that only very experienced you know, traders should do.

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[00:25:11]So yeah, if you're interested in that and that's something you do definitely check it out in the description below. But again, that's only for very experienced traders. If you don't know what I'm talking about, it's not for you and there's no shame in that. You don't want anything to do with that and you don't need it especially not at the beginning of a bull market potential alt season, right? So that's it for me. Take care. Bye.

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