Fowler delivers a sharp autopsy of the sneaker bubble, exposing how Nikeโs oversupply finally killed the artificial scarcity that fueled its hype. It is a sobering reminder that when sneakers stop being speculative assets, they finally return to being personal style.
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Nobody Cares About Jordans AnymoreAdded:
Jordans are dead. At least that's what everyone's saying. But the reality is actually much more interesting and honestly better. This past weekend, a shoe that would have sold out instantly a couple years ago sat on shelves. And not only sat on shelves, it sat hard. In fact, resale prices for this shoe are below retail like 2 days after its dropped. And of course, the shoe that I'm talking about is the Air Jordan 1 Low Band. This is a shoe that in my opinion is incredible. It tells a really good story. The packaging that it comes with wasn't phoned in. It was really well done. The materials are decent.
It's got tons of hidden details and it's a bread one. It's one of the OG Air Jordan 1 colorways, but it's sat which is wild. And this is just one example of a pair of sneakers that a couple years ago would have flown off shelves and now is selling for under retail. And this steady decline of hype sneaker releases over the last couple years has led a lot of people to say Jordans are dead or sneakers are dead. But let me define what I think people mean by dead. GR sneakers sitting everywhere. Resale price is plummeting. In fact, very few sneakers are reselling currently. And I think for a lot of people, that's what defines dead. It means that they're primarily interested in the hype of the shoe. And to be honest, that's fine. You can like something for whatever reason.
If you want to like a pair of sneakers because it's hyped. That's fine. I know sneaker heads will give you a lot of crap for that. But realistically, it doesn't matter. You can like what you like because you like it. There doesn't have to be a good reason for it. But it brings me back to the point when people say sneakers are dead. It's not because sneakers themselves are no longer selling. I mean, everyone has to buy pairs of shoes. Sneakers are still selling. Jordan Brand is still making millions and millions of dollars. Nike is still making billions of dollars.
It's that the hype is gone. Sneakers aren't reselling anymore. They're not quick flips like they used to be. A few years ago, we went through one of the biggest bubbles in collectibles ever.
And that's not just sneakers. That's sports cards, Pokรฉmon cards, Legos, any kind of thing that you collect. It went through a crazy hyped period during co specifically because people were sitting at home and they had some disposable income to blow. And because of that big bubble, a lot of people got into new hobbies, specifically sneakers, which means that the price of all the sneakers that were releasing around that time and the price of sneakers that had released years ago were all inflated because there was way more demand. And when people noticed that they could make a lot of money flipping shoes, it brought even more people in. We took a resale market in a flipping market, which was already very strong, and just supercharged it. So people were able to buy a pair of Nike Dunks in the most basic colorway for $100 and then flipped them for $500. And that just felt like the norm. But the problem was it isn't the norm, and it never was the norm.
There was periods in the mid2010s and even the mid2000s where sneakers were more hyped than they had ever been. For example, 2012 when things like the Galaxy Foam Posits were dropping. Pairs of sneakers were reselling for over a grand, which at the time was crazy. But those hype periods never reached the level of just obscene hype that we got for sneakers in 2020. And that hype period lasted for a while. And especially for people who just got into sneakers in 2020, it felt like that hype period was going to continue. In fact, I would say sneakers were at that inflated level from probably 2020 all the way to like mid 2023, maybe even into 2024. It really started to tail off then, but it was a solid like 2 to 3 years of just insane hype for GR release sneakers. And while honestly overall that might have been a good thing for sneakers just because it got so many more people interested and exposed many more people to a different fashion or style than they had been exposed to previously, it did create this false sense that sneakers are this insane hype machine that are always going to be able to make you money. And so when you start to see colorways of shoes that used to sell for $500, $600 now sitting on store shelves for under retail. If your mindset is just I'm in sneakers cuz I want to make money, which again, that's fine. Do you.
I have no problem with that. There are other hobbies that I'm into for that exact reason, but sneakers in particular, when people are into it for that reason, when they start to see this asset that they had bought a couple years ago, suddenly drop in value, they're like, "Wo, I'm out. This is not worth it for me anymore." And a bunch of people having that same thought at once pops the market bubble and creates this huge decline in popularity of sneakers and also resale prices. But this is where it gets really interesting because with this decline in interest in sneakers, because the resale market just isn't what it once was, brands have found themselves in a very precarious position. brand specifically like Jordan brand. During 2020, Jordan brand had a supply problem. They couldn't produce enough sneakers. Not just Jordan brand, every brand. They couldn't produce enough sneakers to meet the demand that was happening because there was obviously a lot of issues going on.
Factories couldn't produce pairs.
Factories were shut down. There was supply chain problems. A lot of stuff was going on. And so it took this artificial hype and just exacerbated it to a point where it was just unsustainable. But then as supply started to catch up to demand, the hype started to die down, which would make sense, supply and demand. It's exactly what it sounds like. When there's more supply, there's less demand and vice versa. But what's really surprised me about this whole thing, and I think the main reason why Jordan Brand finds themselves in the position that they're in, which to be clear, they're still making billions of dollars annually.
Like they're not hurting. They're just not selling to the level that we're used to. I just want to clarify that because I feel like people think that Jordan Brand is in dire straits. They're not in dire straits, but they are probably a little bit concerned about the direction of the market. What surprised me most about what Nike and Jordan Brand did specifically, and one of the reasons why there are so many competitors just blowing up right now is because, in my opinion, they had a knee-jerk reaction.
rather than just kind of staying the course and trying to sustain this hype bubble, which while no, hyped up sneakers is not the main bulk of their revenue, it does drive sales of their GR stuff, which is the main bulk of their revenue. So, they want to maintain the hype, they want to maintain the sort of mystique, the sort of resale culture because it it makes people want to buy into Nike sneakers that are available.
So, what Jordan brand and Nike did on a very macro scale is that they pumped up the supply to an unsustainable point.
They made so many pairs of sneakers that initially sold incredibly well because people were starved for Nike and Jordan sneakers. But as time went on, people realized, okay, there's so many of these pairs available on the market, no one really wants them anymore because everyone has them. Case in point, the Nike Dunk Low Pandas, a shoe that used to resell for hundreds of dollars, now you can find at Nike outlets for well below retail. And that's because Nike made so many of them. And to be fair, they are an incredibly popular pair of shoes and for non-sneaker heads, because for whatever reason, sneakerheads hate the shoe. I think it's totally It's a black and white pair of Dunks. What's wrong with it? This video is really supposed to be like this scripted experience where I talk about like, you know, the economics of Jordan brand, but realistically, it's turning into a rant.
All that being said, Nikey's knee-jerk reaction of just pumping the market full of supply had the adverse effect of I think what they wanted. Initially, it did make them tons of money, huge amounts of money, just absurd amounts of money. And that, okay, that is probably what they wanted. But I don't know if they had the forethought to think, okay, this is going to destroy the demand for these sneakers in the next couple years.
And it's something that when you think about it like rationally, and maybe hindsight's 2020, it seems obvious, right? Like it seems like something that would make a lot of sense. But for whatever reason, either they didn't think about it or they didn't care. And it doesn't really matter which one it was, it's what happened. But then this is where things get even crazier. So a few years after all this starts to happen and the hype in sneakers starts to really die down because there's so many pairs available and everyone's able to get any pair that they want. Jordan Brand or Nike seemingly think that okay well demand is starting to slow. Why don't we do something to jump start the market? And I think for a lot of different brands and again I think the reason why brands like an and hoka are exploding in popularity the way that they are is because rather than focusing on innovation rather than trying something new rather than creating in the case of Jordan brand because it's such a legacy based brand rather than trying to create new storylines and new products which they are but this wasn't the main focus they decided to go back to their legacy product and re-release stuff that were grails or unobtainable stuff that really shouldn't have been re-released because it really it kind of cheapens the collector aspect of it. And I think this is really a nuanced topic because there are a lot of people out there, including myself, who are like, I would love to own a pair of undefeated fours if I could. If they re-released them, I would definitely buy them. And that's exactly what I did. But then the other side of the coin is if you re-release these shoes that are the the grails, the sneakers that are unobtainable, the sneakers that should be reserved as sort of the top of the food chain, the sneakers that kind of make honestly collecting special because you have somewhere to build to, you have something at the top of your ladder of of collecting. If you re-release those, it makes those releases less special, which in turn cheapens the whole hobby realistically because now you're thinking, okay, if I spend $40,000 on a pair of Undefeated, there is a very real possibility that Jordan Brand will re-release these sneakers in the future.
And then it's like, why did I spend that money? Now, again, this is purely from the mindset of someone who is trying to invest into a pair of sneakers, which is not everybody, and it shouldn't be everybody. I don't think sneakers are an investment. I just want to clarify that.
That's sports cards. I'm just kidding.
I'm not I'm not totally kidding. You guys have seen I have a whole card channel now. Doesn't matter. Sneakers though, the problem with that is that they degrade over time and then the more that you wear them, the more they go down in value. So, I really have trouble defining sneakers as an asset because they're not I'm trying to think of a good example. It's like if you're a car collector, right? And Ferrari has their most famous I don't remember what it's called, but they're like most famous editor Tim will know this probably.
Shout out to editor Tim. Their most famous most expensive Ferrari, like the oneofone race used Ferrari car or whatever it is. If they take that car that's worth millions and millions and millions of dollars and then they decide to re-release it for the masses, it takes that car and just takes it off the pedestal and makes people a lot less interested in the brand because all these Ferrari collectors out there are like, "Okay, well, if they're willing to do that to their rarest and most soughtafter car, what are they willing to do with these other cars that we have?" This all comes down to collecting and economics and and investing and things like that. Stuff that most sneaker collectors aren't really worried about. But, I mean, you got to understand it from a collector's point of view. If you are only collecting one brand or one kind of thing, that brand has a strangle hold on the thing that you're collecting and they can do whatever they want with it. So they can essentially take all your special things and make them not special like that by just re-releasing that special thing.
And it seems like that's what Jordan Brand thought would be the answer. So rather than innovate like an and Hoka and all these other brands were doing and again it doesn't have to be a huge innovation. And it could be something like the Nigel Sylvesters where they they get this really great creative and they allow them to create a pair of whatever or a collection of something that is new and different and even though it's on an Air Jordan 4, it's exciting and it's got a really great story behind it. But rather than really focusing on that and creating just like say five different Nigel Sylvester style silhouettes or or sneakers or collaborations, which they have tried to do, but none of them really hit like the Nigel's, they decided to take these crazy grails like the Undefeateds or in the case of Nike, the Wu Tanks or um I mean there's there's tons of other sneakers we can talk about and re-release them, which again seems very shortsighted because while yes, in the short term you're going to make a lot of money cuz you're going to sell all these Undefeated, at the end of the day it's going to make people not care as much about the brand. And I think that in and of itself is one of the main reasons why Jordan Brand finds himself in this position right now. I think they decided to cheapen something that made the hobby so special, and that was the chase. I mean, you can deny it all you want. You can say it's hype all you want, but chasing after that pair of sneakers that you really want is one of the best parts. Waiting in line for a pair of sneakers, as much as it sucks, finally getting that pair of sneakers in hand is one of the best things about the hobby.
So, when Jordan Brand inadvertently, seemingly makes that not as exciting or makes the chase not as fun or cheapens the chase, I guess, is the best way to say it, it really leaves a bad taste in a lot of people's mouth. Again, I want to say I love the undefeated fours. I'm so happy that I have them, but at the same time, would they feel more special if they were still that crazy 72 pair only grail? Probably. Okay, so to zoom out once again, the two reasons that we've talked about as to why Jordan brand is not hitting the way that they used to is one, they oversaturated the market with just a huge amount of quantity. Also, releases like every other day. That was something that they had always kind of done, but it was never to this level where there are like five pairs of Jordans dropping any given week. They also decided to re-release the Grails and make people in the hobby feel a little bit less excited about the hobby. And then finally, it truly is that lack of innovation. Again, it doesn't have to be crazy groundbreaking innovation. Jordan brand doesn't have to create like a hovering pair of shoes or whatever. And we've seen with Jordan brand, innovation is really tough because you look at any non retro models, they don't hit. Like none of them have hit. And the closest thing that we've had to that are new models based on retros like the RM Air Jordan 4s, which currently are not hitting at all. But at the time when they first released, people were like, "Oh, these are cool." So, it's really I I I got to give Jordan credit here cuz they are trying to innovate a little bit. Nike certainly is not. I guess they're trying, but they're like releasing new shapes of air. Like, what are you doing?
Come on. There just doesn't seem to be anything new from Jordan brand. And the stuff that is new, while it's great, there's not a lot of it. So, all of these factors have created this huge resale price plummet for Jordan sneakers. There are maybe five sneakers that have released this year that are actually reselling for anything, at least from Jordan brand. And that's because of all these different factors that we've talked about. And Jordan brand still hasn't seem to have course corrected yet. Maybe they are in the future. Maybe they've planned for it cuz I think they planned like a couple years out. But as of right now, it doesn't seem like this is changing anytime soon.
And as a sneaker content creator, I've got to say this sucks. Like my whole livelihood is based on Jordan Brand primarily. There's a lot of other brands out there that I talk about, too, but Jordan Brand primarily releasing good sneakers that people want to learn about and hear about. If Jordan Brand is not releasing good sneakers, my views plummet. And as you've seen over the last 2 years, my views have plummeted.
Like, it's crazy. And it sucks. I'm not going to lie to you. It sucks. I have a family now. I mean, I'm still doing fine. Like, I'm not going to complain in that sense. But, I will say that like in terms of my goals and in terms of the sustainability of this channel. I've had to focus other places, and that's fine.
Like, I think that's okay. Like, everything has to kind of shift and change and adjust. I've got a tech channel now. I I really focus heavily on Apothecary and the podcast and things like that. And this channel is still the lifeblood of my content journey. I still plan to continue creating on here. And as we'll get to in a minute, I'm sure there's going to be an upswing of sneakers at some point in the near future. But that being said, because my content is so reliant on a brand being successful, it sucks to see the brand that you've based your livelihood on suck. Like, it sucks. And I started back in 2016 when sneakers were hyped, but not like they were in 2020. So, I know that it's sustainable. I know that this is something that can survive as a business, as something that I do full-time. It's something that I enjoy.
I'll always enjoy it. But realistically, to make a living off of it, it does require there to be some hype around sneakers. That's just full transparency.
But the problem that I'm seeing with Jordan brand and Nike in particular is that they are very reactive with what they're doing. They're not doing something. They don't seem as forward- facing. They don't seem as willing to take risks, which is frustrating because you look at brands like Adidas, who is absolutely killing it right now. One, because football is big as it's ever been, and two, because they're actually doing things that are different. Like you look at what Bad Bunny's releasing, right? Not all of it might sell out, but it's all completely different. It's all completely out there. It's all wild. You look at some of the collaborations that they're dropping that are incredibly hyped. They're giving these people opportunities to do something else, try something different, and they're not restricting them the way that I think Jordan Brand and Nike do. And they're also innovating. Ultra Boost are not what they once were. I mean, to be fair, they're releasing something like the what do they call the Ultra Boost Edge or the Hyperboost Edge or whatever. I don't think that shoe in particular is going to change the game, but I do think that that line of thinking is going to change the game. I mean, you see what they did with the Evo SL. That sneaker killed it, and it's because it's different. They're trying something new.
And this market opening that Jordan brand has created by not being as popular as they once were has allowed for brands like AS6 and Sakin and New Balance to really come in there and just make a huge name for themselves. And as we've seen, like AS6 are one of the most popular sneakers in the market right now, as they should be because they create really good shoes and people are finally starting to open their eyes to other brands. Like I said before, this channel is heavily based on Jordans, but it's also based on all sneakers. And AS6 are a brand that I think finally is getting the shine that they deserve because they're doing things right now.
I think that AS6 is really walking a line. Like I think they've got to try some new things quickly because if they don't, they're going to go the same way as Jordan brand, but I do think they're on the right path. Same thing with New Balance. I think New Balance had this huge spike in popularity in the 2020s.
They did a lot of things right and now it's like they've got to they've got to make sure that they're continuing to do that. I think Adidas is the one in my opinion that's really doing the most right from an outside perspective. But speaking of these other brands, because Jordan Brand left this opening in the market, it's allowed people to experience these other brands. And that in turn has taken money away from Jordan brand and given it to other brands, which I do think in general is a good thing. I think competition is incredibly important in the market. It means that Jordan Brand is going to be forced to try something different, which I think they're going to have to in order to survive. And again, they're making billions of dollars a year. They're not hurting, but I don't think the trajectory of their sales are going the way that they want is what I'm trying to say. And what you'll notice if you go to a mall or you walk around the city or whatever is people aren't really wearing Jordans anymore. I mean, you notice that with what's sitting in stores. People are wearing A6L130s. People are wearing New Balance 9060s. Like, they're wearing shoes from brands that 5 years ago people didn't think were cool. I mean, it makes sense. It's fashion. Fashion is always moving. Fashion's always changing. But these other brands exploding in popularity has taken a lot of market share away from Jordan brand and has also not helped the resale prices of Jordan sneakers because again when there's less demand and more supply there's going to be less hype. And actually let's talk about the fashion side of things really quickly because I do feel like the trends in fashion have also pulled people away from Jordan brand. Jordan Brand creates sneakers that are retro sneakers from the 80s and '9s. Sneakers that are bulky, they're big. They're loud. They're colorful. I mean, you look at Nike's basketball offerings from the 2010s, which they're retroing for some reason right now.
These are big foam bulky sneakers, like bricks. And you look around what people are wearing, no one's wearing this kind of stuff. And no one's fashion really works with this kind of stuff. And if you look at what normal people are wearing, they're not wearing outfits that fit with these kinds of sneakers.
Like even the brighter like crazy outfits that maybe more fashion forward people are wearing, they're not wearing Jordans with them. They're wearing brightly colored AS6 or brightly colored Adidas or whatever. They're wearing something else that ties in better with their fit than a pair of Jordans. They just don't feel like they're of the moment. They just don't feel like the kind of shoe that you immediately think of when you want to throw on a fit. So, how has all of this affected sneaker culture? Well, one, it's weeded out a lot of people, which is good and bad.
One, there's a lot less people interested in sneakers, so hype is lower. There's less community there, which is bad. But two, it means that there's less resellers, which I don't have a problem with resellers. Again, I don't have any problem with resellers, but when a resale store is opening up on every single corner of your suburb, it's like, what's going on here? That's not sustainable. That's not going to work out. So, there's less bad, but there's also less good when it comes to community. And even though there's more sneaker releases than ever, there's less excitement and less community around these sneaker releases. People just don't care as much. So there's not as many events. There's not as many like people lining up for sneakers. It still happens, but it's not the way it used to be. I mean, even in 2016, even before this huge co boom, there was a lot more hype and a lot more lining up and a lot more going on around sneakers. Also because there was more resale, but also people were just more excited about them. So in a lot of ways, this decline in popularity, this decline in resale prices has hurt sneaker culture. But in other ways, it's actually a really good thing because it's finally given people the freedom to actually buy what they like. People have been saying that for years. I've been saying buy what you like for years. But it's something that people didn't really listen to. They wanted to buy what was hype. Whether they said it or not, that's what people wanted. What's happened now with this drop in resale prices is that there's not as many hype sneakers, which means that people can actually go to a store and see sneakers that maybe they're nostalgic about. Like we've got the Toro 4s coming out, which is a pair that if you were big into sneakers in 2013, you're like, "Wow, that's so cool to be able to have this sneaker." There's people like that who want to be able to buy the sneakers that they were never able to have, which is in a lot of ways me. But also, you're not afraid to take risks. You're not afraid to buy that pair of Hokas that no one cares about or knows about because you're like, "It's a dope looking pair of sneakers." And people now really don't care as much about sneakers. You're not going to get those like weird like angry eyes at you when you're wearing a pair of sneakers that someone doesn't like. Although you might that might still happen. You have this freedom now. You were given a freedom to try something new. And I think that's really really special and important. And I guess in the grander scheme of things, people are saving money. Like you're not feeling like you're forced to buy a release every week because you just don't need to.
Like before you wanted to try and grab every release because you're like, "Okay, well if I miss out on this, the resale price is going to be crazy. I'm never going to be able to grab it again." Now it's like, "Okay, well this release is probably going to be sitting for a week. I have some time to think about or in a lot of cases it's like okay now I'm just going to buy the sneakers that I want because I don't feel like there's this FOMO of if I don't buy it I'm not going to be able to resell it. You know what I mean? Like there's a lot less FOMO now which is really really great in a lot of ways. Um and then finally sneakers are selling for way under retail. A sneaker like this which a couple years ago probably would have sold for 3 400 bucks. Now you can buy it for under retail on like goat stock wherever eBay doesn't matter. You can find it in store for retail. You can actually go in and buy the sneakers that you want for under retail which is nuts.
So, you're saving money by buying less sneakers, but also by being able to buy the sneakers that you wanted to discount, which is all good in my opinion. People aren't afraid of creasing their sneakers anymore. People aren't wearing uh outsole protectors anymore. That was a wild period, wasn't it? I mean, people still do it, but that was a wild period. I did it once in 2015 when I first got the Yeezy 750s, the first pair. And uh I was at Sneaker Con.
I'm like, "Yo, I really want to be able to sell these after this. Like, I I really want to like rock these though."
So, I got it. And everyone that I was with at this event, shout out to my wife and Osman, the founder of Apothecary, who was there with me as well. Uh they all just were clowning me cuz they're like this is stupid. Like this is stupid that you're wearing plastic on the bottom of your shoes. And for a decade that was really normalized because resale was king. And after that, by the way, I never wore those again. And no shade to you if you're a brand that makes those. That's fine. Like you're cashing in on hype. I get it. And also if you wore them also, no shade there.
It was silly, but do you again. It does not matter. Like this is such the fact that people get so hyped up about something so stupid like sneakers. Like stop fighting on Twitter about sneakers.
Same thing. Like stop fighting about Pokemon cards. Stop getting in fights outside of Target for Pokemon cards.
What are you doing? It's just so dumb.
It's just so dumb. All of it's dumb.
This is a hobby. It's collectibles.
Like, prioritize it. Get your life in order first. Figure out your family.
Figure out like your relationship with whatever, you know, greater being you're you're interested in. I guess I'll end the video with this. Sneakers are shifting from hype culture finally back to personal style. And for a company like Jordan Brand that has based their entire persona on hype sneakers, that's not a good thing because people don't care anymore. But for the collectors, it's a great thing. For sneaker YouTubers, it's also not a great thing.
sneaker influencers, but for the community as a whole, for the culture as a whole, it's a very good thing and I'm actually really happy that it's happening. Let me know your thoughts on this in the comment section down below.
I really wanted to talk about this. It's something that I've been thinking about for years, and uh I finally just want to sit down and make a video on it. So, there you go. Let me know your thoughts.
As always, thank you for watching. I'll see you all in the next
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