This Cardano (ADA) Setup Is REPEATING!

Ajouté : 2026-05-17

[00:00:03]Welcome to another Cardano update. Like always, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon if you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily Discord updates. So, in this video I want to start on the 4-hour chart and I want to quickly talk about the RSI as long as the short-term targets I have. So, why do I want to talk about the RSI? Well, it's very simple. A couple of days ago we got into overbought territory, which is not really a big deal. I mean, at least 24-hour chart, it I guess to the overbought terri tory a lot of times and it does that every couple of weeks, but this is important right now and the reason it's important is because the price formed a lower high, but the RSI formed a higher high and I believe we have not been this overbought ever since these highs back in August of 2025 and back then the price, I believe, was at around $1. If you look at what the price did after that, it pretty much got rejected by this important trend line on the chart, which pretty much connected to the previous all-time highs and that's what gave us a rejection.

[00:01:04]Now, why is this important? Because, like I said, back then the price was higher, but right now the price is lower and yet the RSI went to the exact same levels. That's not really great. I think this is going to lead to a drop. Now, I do have to say that this AB setup is still valid and even though we have been going sideways for quite a long time ever since the 6th of, let's say, Feb- February, I'm sorry, and even though we didn't really do anything, the AB setup is still valid and also we did not invalidate the entire one-two setup on the daily, which I'm going to talk about as well. And yeah, this entire move to the upside from these lows of the 2021 bear market lows to the highs of 2024, this is still a one-two setup because the price stayed above these lows at least so far, but yeah, we'll talk about that soon. What you have to understand right now is that if the price does not manage to hold above this low at around 23.5 cents and if it breaks below this very big support zone at 23.9 cents, this is going to mean that the last support zone I'm going to have, which is not really support zone, but instead it's pretty much an invalidation zone.

[00:02:05]The last invalidation zone that I have is at 21.6% and breaking below the support zone is pretty much going to trigger a very big move to the downside. Now, the target for that move is between 19.6% and 13%.

[00:02:19]The reason for that is very simple. I believe that in this current bear market ADA is still trying to complete a much bigger third wave of the bear market.

[00:02:26]So, this move to the downside from that high at 130% to the low at 50% was pretty much just kind of let's just say 1 2 3 4 5. I'm sorry, a 1 2 3 4 5. A very weird 1 2 3 4 5, but nonetheless it was a 1 2 3 4 5. And after that the price formed an ABC, which can easily be counted as a much bigger second wave move up, meaning that what we are doing right now, this very impulsive move to the downside is most likely third wave.

[00:02:53]And it would make sense that third wave is always the most impulsive wave, and that's the reason why I believe that we might be in a third wave and also because in the previous bear market the setup more or less looked exactly same.

[00:03:05]After getting that all-time high right there, the price went down quite a lot, but in the short term it managed to recover to the bear market support band.

[00:03:12]This was a second wave to the upside.

[00:03:14]And just like in this cycle over here, after we got that high, we went down. We then got a move to the bear market support band, even back above it. But when we tried testing bear market support band, that's when we pretty much broke below it, and that's what triggered the much bigger C wave, or in this case, I'm sorry, the third wave.

[00:03:29]Just like back in that area over there.

[00:03:31]But I don't think the setup is completed. I think that at this point of the cycle ADA is most likely right here.

[00:03:37]And the reason for that is pretty simple. A couple of months ago ADA got a cross to the bear market support band, just like it did back in that area over there. And during this entire time after the cross, we stayed below the bear market support band the entire time, like we did back in that area, but not only that, we also went sideways above the 50% support zone of the entire one to set up from these lows at 2 cents back in 2020 to the all-time highs at $3.10 back in 2021, and we went sideways above that very important support zone exactly like we did back there. But, you know, back then we went sideways above the 0.382 support level, and right now we're going sideways above the 50% support zone.

[00:04:16]But, just like we did back in that area, I think that at some point we're going to test the bottom of the support band, and that is what is going to lead to a much bigger drop, which is going to put us exactly at the next support zone.

[00:04:27]And, I mean, you know, in this case it's going to be at 13 cents because in the previous cycle the next support zone after the 0.382 was the 50%, but right now we are already at the 50%, and that's going to complete a much bigger third wave. Then, after that, I do see the price getting a move maybe to even above the bull market support band like it did back in that area over there.

[00:04:46]And, after we do something like that, maybe that's going to be the bear market low. We don't necessarily have to get another low, but in every single cycle so far we always formed a 1 2 3 4 5 setup.

[00:04:57]In every single bear market so far the setup looks very similar. I'm going to talk about this setup as well, but first let me continue with what happened over here. So, this low of the third wave happened pretty much exactly when Bitcoin bottomed as well. But, as you will see, even though we got a move to the bull market support band a couple of months later, and even though during that time I believe the price got exactly to the 0.382 or maybe even the 50% of this entire third wave to the downside. So, yeah, it got to the 0.382 resistance level. After we did that, we got rejected, which gave us a move to well, pretty much below these lows, but this was not really a significant move.

[00:05:32]We used the support zone again as support. We even broke below it, but if you just zoom in the daily week I I believe did not close below it, which was good. But, yeah, this could be counted as a much bigger 1 2 3 4 5, and then after that we formed a 1 2, which later gave us a much bigger third wave, which is this move right here, and then the fourth wave and the fifth wave complete the much bigger A wave.

[00:05:53]So, let's say we get a move to the market support band or even above it after we get to 13 cents or even 15 cents, and let's say we get a fourth wave to the upside. If that is the case, a target for the fourth wave, at least based on the length of the third wave, if the third wave gets to 13 cents, it's going to have to be at around 28.6 cents, and that's the minimum target. Of course, it could overextend maybe to 36 cents, but you get the idea. By the time we get the much bigger third wave to the downside, the market support band is most likely going to be lower. So, let's say we get a move above the market support band, and we get exactly to either the 0.382 resistance level at 28 cents or even the 50%. That might be a move above the market support band, exactly like back in that area over there, and then we can finally get a final wick below that move. Now, of course, something like this does not have to happen if we manage to hold support levels on this much bigger move to the downside, and if we stay, let's say, above the 0.618 support zone of that move to the upside, then I could say that maybe the market low is in. It all depends on how this is going to play out. Let's say we get a move to 13 cents right now, and then let's say and then the market starts going up until August or so. If that is the case, then maybe we're going to get another wick to the downside. However, if the price just continues to go sideways right now, and if we only get a move to the downside at the end of October or something like that, and we complete a much bigger third wave at the end of October, the move that we're going to get, which is going to be the fourth wave move up, is most likely going to be fake out back back in that area over there. That's what's going to lead to a much bigger drop later on, which is going to mean that ADA is going to bottom again a couple of months later after Bitcoin bottoms, which is not the ideal scenario, even though it happened in every single cycle so far. I would like to see that being avoided in this cycle. We kind of need ADA to be able to stronger in this cycle, otherwise, it's not going to be able to get to new all-time highs anytime soon. So, if we want ADA to be stronger, it needs to bottom pretty much exactly when Bitcoin bottoms.

[00:07:47]And not like 6 months later. It even did this back in 2020, but 2020 was a different situation. After we formed pretty much the exact same 1 2 3 4 5 setup, and after the fourth wave move up put us above the bear market and support band, we ended up getting a wick to the downside, which was the pandemic drop.

[00:08:03]And this was a fifth wave, and then I mean, as you can see, this fifth wave to the downside happened in March of 2020, and the real bear market low of Bitcoin was pretty much back in this area, back in the summer of 2018. So, this new low happened like maybe like 14 months later. I'm sorry, maybe like even more than that, 15 months later after the bear market lows. So, if we want to avoid a situation like that, first of all, we kind of need to avoid having a pandemic, which I think is pretty easy to do. And second of all, we kind of need to form a five-wave move down by the end of October, which means that the best-case scenario would be to drop to 13 cents, then to get a move to the bear market support band or even back above it, and then get a wick to 13 cents again. During that time, I'm expecting Bitcoin to also get between $40,000 and even $30,000. You probably should already know my targets, but I know not many people want to hear about this. They do not want to hear about Cardano getting to 13 cents, but to me, that would be the best-case scenario in this supposed bull market.

[00:09:01]We formed a much bigger ABC setup for a much bigger B wave, which by the way got rejected exactly at the 0.618 resistance level of this entire wave to the downside, and that works perfectly as a B wave, like I said, because it's an ABC. And this was also some kind of maybe 1 2 3 4 5 setup, like I already talked about. So, this was the A wave.

[00:09:20]Right now, we're working on yet another 1 2 3 4 5 setup, which is going to be for the C wave, which is going to mean that after this bear market, we're going to complete a much bigger ABC, and that's going to be enough to then start a much bigger third wave of this entire 1 2 setup. So, I would definitely not forget that. I think this is a very important thing to know, and I think that after we do find a bottom, the market situation is going to change quite a lot.

[00:09:45]People tend to forget that in the previous bull market, after ADA went from 2 cents to about $1.30, it also dropped back down to about 2 cents again, and then only after that we finally broke from 2 cents to $3.10, but this move only happened because during this time the market was in QE the entire time, and during this bull market the market was in QT the entire time, which could be a good reason why Bitcoin dominance did not break down.

[00:10:10]So, that's my opinion, obviously. Maybe it's not going to play out exactly like that, but I think that we're probably not going to drop to cents like we did back in 2017, obviously, but a test of 13 cents and then a bounce off the 13 cents level is going to make this cycle way more stronger than the previous, or I'm sorry, the first cycle, just because back in the first cycle the Cardano chart dropped about 99%. So, even if we go like 90% down right now, it's still going to be better than the previous cycle, which was 2021. I believe in 2021 we went down even more than 90%. I believe from the all-time highs to the bear market lows it was maybe like, yeah, about 94%, 93%, and in the first bull market we went down even more. I'm sorry, bear market again, we went down like 99%.

[00:10:56]So, going down 90% from these highs is going to put us at 13 cents, which is pretty much going to be the best bear market yet. That's pretty much all I have. I hope you enjoyed. If you did, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon. If you want access to all of our charts, and if you want access to our daily Discord updates, like, subscribe, and I'll see you in the next one.