SPX Top Triggered. Here Is The Game Plan | Profit Pilot

[00:00:00]Hey traders, TG Watkins here. It's July 17th, Friday, when I'm recording this.

[00:00:03]This is going to be your free video and then also the video on the Profit Pilot YouTube page. So, let's dive into it.

[00:00:09]The market had a bit of a rough day, but we did see this coming. Hopefully, you guys were all prepared for this and were able to adjust your accounts basically leading up to this. We've been seeing this easily for this week.

[00:00:21]Even even last week, we were kind of starting to see some things kind of cracking out there a little bit. One thing I want to show you is that for the free video yesterday over at Simpler Trading, uh the biggest thing, even though the the uh thumbnail here was kind of talking about the AI trade, which we already saw was cracking. I mean, it was pretty much well ahead.

[00:00:38]We've just been seeing everything related to uh the AI trade falling apart. Uh the biggest thing that I wanted you guys to pay attention to was down here where I was talking about [clears throat] the uh SPX is lying to you because a lot of people Instagram, all that kind of stuff, and X that I was watching out there for the week, people kept saying, "Hey, the SPX is still bullish. You know, it's still bullish. We're still doing fine." And I was like, "I don't think so." I understand that the SPX is up. I understand it's near all-time highs, and I understand all the moving averages are still stacked positively.

[00:01:12]But, everything I was seeing was things were starting to crumble underneath the surface, and eventually that was going to work its way up to the SPX and the other indices that were still up. Uh the AI trade, technology, they're all such a big component of the market that eventually that weakness was going to work its way up into the higher indices like this. And uh even though the RSP was up, you know, eventually some of this stuff was going to start coming down. So, really this was the biggest situation. And as I was making the video yesterday, we actively saw that the market was coming down, and specifically the SPX started to break below the hourly 50, and I thought that was a a big deal for us. Uh the other thing I can show you guys is over here. If you look at the Profit Pilot YouTube, this is my prop my YouTube page.

[00:01:58]The other day I was talking about breadth that we should be watching this.

[00:02:02]I think that there are some issues. I think the 20-day and the 50-day breadth while it's still up, it is in the higher range even though things underneath the surface are starting to fall apart.

[00:02:11]We're coming into some seasonality that's not great for the market and breadth is high. I think we could use a refresh. I think we should be watching breadth start to cycle back down just because it's so high. I'm not sure how much higher we can go in through here even though it's not extended, it's in the upper range and so be prepared it could be coming down. And then also same thing here. This was my last week market update. You know, hey, trade's not working out, listen to what the market is telling you. And even that's why I say even though the SPX looked bullish, even though the Dow and the IWM kind of looked bullish, underneath the surface things are starting to fall apart and that's what I was saying that hey, you know, if you if you keep trying some trades, they're not doing it, you know, maybe you should recognize what the market's telling us and step aside or change something. The other thing we can talk about here, I I love being in the community that we're in with the the mastering trade room, the boxing room.

[00:03:02]We got a lot of people with different views of how things are seen out there and it's nice when actually we see them starting to line up. So, this was MP.

[00:03:09]He's one of our subscribers and he was talking about John Carter's cycle peak this week. So, even John Carter is looking at the market topping out.

[00:03:17]Talking about David Starr's triangle theory on the SPY as a top also.

[00:03:22]And I had been talking this week about the rotation into the mags or FNGU, the Fang stocks.

[00:03:30]And saying, "Hey, even though a lot of things are coming down, those are still strong." I said, "I have a feeling those are the safety trades and they can be a flight to safety until they're not." And I think today was basically the day was until we're not. And this was yesterday that we were talking about this. Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, don't rule out one last rotation into the mag seven trapping the most liquidity before rolling over. I think that's pretty much what we saw today.

[00:03:56]So, let's dive into it. Remember to hit that like and subscribe button. That way you guys get to all the notifications.

[00:04:02]And remember this is for educational purposes only. So, yeah, weakness is starting to catch up into the SPX and the RSP, the equal weight. So, you know, that was a little bit of a flight to safety there, trying to hold it up, that kind of thing. But the Dow, the IWM, they're all starting to roll over from what I'm seeing. And we finally got a Vix trigger. So, I'm going to go through some of these tickers. And then I'm going to show you similar setups on AMD and Dell, which is leading me to take a short trade in another ticker that if you guys want to see, you need to come over, subscribe to simpler trading.com, and then over in my group over /moxie. Okay, so let's look at this. If we look at the SPX up and through here, the the biggest thing that I've been looking for with this is that this move right here, I said I think this is a false move. I think this is false strength.

[00:04:49]Yes, we got the moxie price trigger.

[00:04:51]Yes, we were holding the hourly 50.

[00:04:53]Yeah, everything kind of looked good.

[00:04:55]But really the biggest thing that I was paying attention to was price was moving up, moxie indicator was moving down, and actively yesterday while I was on the mic recording the videos, we started to see price break the hourly 50. And today you can see we not only dropped, but we did have the moxie price trigger fire to the downside. So, pretty pretty much on cue for what we're looking for. We have price breaking the 50 and the moxie indicator firing at the same time. So, there you go. That works out pretty darn well for what we're doing in through here.

[00:05:25]We were able to take quite a few trades.

[00:05:27]We have We have short trades on. Those are doing nicely. As I said, I added another short trade today. And just making sure that people are are protecting their accounts during this kind of market kind of shenanigans, basically.

[00:05:40]And then if we look at the IWM, this is another area of the market that I was looking at. And a lot of this has really been taking time. Partly it's OPEX today. Maybe people are going to say that you know Trump had a press conference and a speech yesterday. Maybe kind of rocking the boat a little bit. There could be quite a few things that are seeping into this, but we also know that the AI trade, everything related to AI got super duper overbought over the last few weeks and have been coming down. So everything is kind of moving got a lot of stuff moving around. You know, SPACs have been coming down and that kind of took down all the high momentum space names and so yeah, it's just kind of been it's been challenging to find some really good strong stuff out there and to to trust it basically. That's what I'm kind of looking at. We'll look here at the IWM. Now we can our confirmed. So again, if you guys watched my video yesterday, I was talking about this. I said I think this is going to be a short. I said Sam is short the IWM.

[00:06:37]I'm short the the Dow and you can see here that price bounced up over the hourly 50. Notice the Moxy indicator is very far below zero. So that tells you that was a false bounce.

[00:06:47]And then if you look at this trend line, you can see that yes yesterday was the last day holding that trend line and now you can see we have broken to the downside of that trend line. So I would say that this is this is going down until we see something else, you know. I would certainly be careful about bounces bounces in a downtrend, but I would not mistake those bounces for long entries yet. Of course, you can day trade. You know, we we had a pretty big gap down today and the the day traders bought it right back up. But then we got weak into the close. So lots of day trading going on out here because we are are transitioning trends. There's going to be a lot of back and forth. So either kind of put on your day trading hat or kind of be careful with your swing trading hat and as far as your investor hat, not much to do on the long side here.

[00:07:34]If you look at the Dow, same [clears throat] thing.

[00:07:37]We can notice that this thing finally broke over. You can see there's right there a nice break and a huge gap down that got bought right back up only to close at the lows. So, once again, lots of day trading opportunities, but we are already swing short on something like this with a call credit spread and you can see here we are now breaking below the daily 21, which is what I was looking for and this is now nicely on its way. Um I have a general target that I think that we could probably go back down to the daily 50. Maybe we go further. We don't know yet, but I think it's reasonable to think that we could get get down there.

[00:08:11]Is it going to be a straight line? I have no idea. You know, is it going to take 3 days or is it going to take 10 days? I don't know, but generally speaking, I would we are not swing long on what the market's doing. It is actively starting to break down. We're putting in lower highs and so you just need to make sure you see what's going on out there.

[00:08:27]Now, speaking of, you know, bounces and stuff like that, there is the possibility that certain areas of the market are getting a little bit too stretched to the downside. And when the market starts to get like this and get kind of funky, uh we understand that things move all over the place. And so, uh it can it can happen that maybe the semiconductors bounce, but then other areas of the market go down. Just like we've seen the semiconductors go down and other areas of the market go up. So, kind of trade everything by itself and kind of and understand that there's a lot of moving parts right here.

[00:09:00]It is certainly possible that at some point we could get a bounce, an oversold bounce in the semiconductors and therefore the Nasdaq. I'm not exactly going to call that right now um because we are still underneath these moving averages, but you know, maybe at some point that could happen. And you can see here we've lost the daily 50.

[00:09:16]Uh we lost the trend line. And uh you know, we're we're we're going down until otherwise. We'll see about intraday bounces, but for the most part the the trend is lower in through here.

[00:09:25]Now, let's take a look at the mags. This this was the big deal.

[00:09:30]This was the situation where I was saying, "Hey, yeah, okay. Uh the mags are still strong. Uh there just, plenty of people pumping into that." And what is it? It was a flight to safety.

[00:09:39]You know, they they still act as a flight to safety, and you can see we had a nice pretty big move up here that started about the week before 4th of July. We got a little shaken bake around 4th of July, and then it continued here as that flight to safety. Now, there was not necessarily a short trigger, but I was telling everybody in the Moxie room and the Mastering the Trade room that this is not where you want to be long.

[00:10:00]And I'd be really really careful up here. I'd be taking profits if you are.

[00:10:04]And I said you need to be prepared that this could pull back, and that happened exactly today. One way to look at it was it came right up into a previous high.

[00:10:12]So, that's some resistance. Another way to look at it, you went from the lower 30 ATR to the upper 30 ATR. Just got, you know, ran from one wall to the other wall, and then got hit. Another thing is you can see it got a little overbought here on the daily chart and just kind of ran out of steam. And yeah, so here we are. Now, we're back below the hourly 50. So, you know, this trade's off. And there could be bounces and stuff, but I certainly wouldn't want to be trying to trade this to the long side. I think I think this move down here to up here was it. And after that, now this thing is at risk of going down. It's going to get very messy, and I would just kind of not trust anything right about now.

[00:10:48]Okay, how about the VIX? This is another thing we have been talking about. Even my weekly videos discussed this saying, "Hey, I don't exactly have a trigger to the long side for the VIX, but it's pretty darn low. And what happens? VIX low, look out below." So, I said, "I think we're kind of running out of room here."

[00:11:04]And then during the week, I was discussing there's a inverse head and shoulders that I thought was starting to set up on this. And as of yesterday, we got a Moxie price trigger. So, again, a lot of things happened yesterday, and we [snorts] did get that trigger yesterday.

[00:11:18]I mean, this is all pretty recent as far as this stuff finally kicking in.

[00:11:22]But you could also see basically price level notice that the Moxie indicator on the 15 was starting to turn up. And of course, now you can see a pretty big move here. So, yeah, the VIX looks like it's well on its way to cruising higher and we will have to see how far that thing actually wants to go.

[00:11:38]All right, then the UVXY I'll just kind of point to that real quick. You can see it started to turn up, too. So, I'll talk a little bit more about that in some of the premium videos.

[00:11:47]Okay, AMD, the biggest thing I want you all to see I tap I touched on this yesterday. Notice that the Moxie indicator on the hourly chart has been below zero for weeks. Even though this was very choppy, even though it did make a new all-time high, that was not to be trusted and I said it was a master matter of time until this thing starts to break lower. You can see that started mid-week and clearly you can see now we've broken below the daily 50.

[00:12:13]The yeah, just pretty heavily. So, even the strongest of the names that were holding up are starting to come down and I think that is noteworthy. I I do think that there is more downside to this market.

[00:12:25]And so, I think you should not be looking too readily at trying to buy the dip on a swing trading basis. Day trading, sure. Like we saw today, huge bounce on some of these names. But, from a swing trading perspective, you know, it's still hands-off.

[00:12:38]And you can see here Dell, same thing.

[00:12:40]Really big The Moxie indicator was below zero for weeks indicating to you that kind of any up move should not be trusted. And as of yesterday, we finally got a break to the downside Today, it did get down to the daily 50. Of course, a little bit of a bounce, but again, I wouldn't be trusting this more than a day trade to anything on the upside. So, we come down, we could bounce, but I I think we were probably going to keep going a little bit lower. So, just just caution out there. And so, that leads me to we did put on another trade that looks just like this. We have it's very extended. The Moxie indicator has been below zero for quite some time. If you guys are interested in wanting to know what that trade we just put on, come over into the mastering the trade room.

[00:13:19]Come on over into the uh over here, my trading room, the Moxie indicator mastery. You guys can come in for a trial if you want to check it out.

[00:13:28]It's simpler trading.com/moxie, which is where you can see over here.

[00:13:32]And other than that, you guys have a good weekend. Hopefully kind of keeping it light in the in your trading accounts. And I will see how it goes for next week. You guys take care.