Cardano (ADA) - STILL HERE? (2026 / 2027 Price Prediction)

[00:00:03]Welcome to another Cardano update. Like always, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon if you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily discord updates and to our bonus content. So, let's start on the 4hour chart. As usual, yesterday I gave you a one two setup and by the looks of it, we got above the first wave high right there or you know, we tested the highs. So I think that right now the next move to the upside could indeed be a much bigger third wave of this one too. And the target for that is between 17.8 cents and 18.4 cents. But we have to understand that here on the RSI it's not looking the best. We formed a higher high but the price pretty much formed let's just say some kind of double top and that is bearish divergence. Of course, that does not mean we're going to start going down instantly, but it is a pretty bad sign. And yeah, we'll see how this plays out. I mean, we did get some bearish divergence a couple of days ago as well when we formed this lower high on the price chart, but the, you know, RSI went higher. So, it is possible to go up in the short term, but this move to the upside is probably only going to be an ABC for the Bwave.

[00:01:13]And that basically means the move to the downside from that high to that low was a 1 2 3 4 5 for the Awave down. We're going to get the last third wave or in this case the Cwave of the Bwave. And then we can get another 1 2 3 4 5 for the Cwave of the Bwave. If we manage to complete an actual fivewave move down after this and if we stay above support that is currently between around 15.9 cents and 14.9 cents, then the next move to the upside could turn into maybe some kind of much bigger Cwave of this one too.

[00:01:47]Now, we also have the scenario that maybe the Awave to the upside is not in already and we are currently only working on a much bigger fourth wave of that Awave, which means this was only a one to three. And right now, we're going to form a fifth wave before getting another ABC to the downside for the actual Bwave down. Even if that is the case, what we have to do right now is actually continue the five wave move up.

[00:02:10]And yeah, if we just get a much bigger ABC right now, that's not really going to be, you know, usual for the fourth wave. Yes, the fourth wave is almost always boring, but it's not really that boring. I mean, it has to at least end at some point. And getting rejected after getting to the third wave target is going to tell me that this is probably going to get invalidated and we're going to drop below these lows at around 13 cents or 13.9 cents. And we're going to get to the 0.618 618 support level right there before trying to start an actual ABC to the upside for the fourth wave. Now, of course, there's always going to be a chance that maybe we start the fourth wave right now. And if we do, the target for that is between 29.5 cents and 37 cents, but there is only a fourth wave. And later in the year, I would still love to see a fifth of the downside to complete the actual bare market low. I will talk about that as well. But you have to also remember that here on the RSA, we've had an uptrend for the last couple of let's say maybe even months at this point or let's say we started in June and yeah, the price has stayed above it so far. We did slightly break below it over here, but yeah, we got back above it. So, I think that if we get some kind of move to the downside right now after maybe getting to the overbought territory in the third wave of this one too, as long as we stay above the trend line right there, we're going to maybe get some type of move to the upside after that.

[00:03:34]But breaking below the trend line is going to break us out of the uptrend and that's going to mean that the downtrend is going to start. I mean, we had something pretty similar back in this area right here. The RSI was in an uptrend the entire time and once we broke below the uptrend, we tested it.

[00:03:50]We got rejected as you can see back then and even back then and that is what led to the price dropping quite a lot from around 28 cents to 13 cents. This uptrend even happened somewhere in this area right here. So yeah, it always led to a drop. Am I going to trust that too much? Now moving on to the daily here. A couple of days ago we broke below the moving average on the RSA and for the last couple of days we have been trying to get back above it. Yesterday we closed below it again. So today is probably the last chance to actually get above it because if we do not get above it, it's, you know, pretty much going to lead to a rejection and it's going to look like what we did back in that area right there. So as you can see, this area is looking very similar to what we're doing right now. Now, even if we form some kind of higher high on the price chart right now and maybe we form a much bigger 1 2 3 4 5 for the Awave, if the RSI does manage to form a higher high and if it just forms a lower high, this is again going to be bearish divergence. And I think that after that we're still gonna break down and we're gonna probably get to the oversold territory again.

[00:04:54]Moving on to the Bitcoin chart on the 4 hour. I want to talk about what's happening over here. A couple of days ago, we got a reaction to support. And this was the 0.786 of the 120 chart. So I think that what we could be working on right now maybe is some kind of much bigger third wave. And this is also going to be some kind of third wave of a Cwave because this move to the upside was an AB. So if that is the case, then the next move might put us at the bottom market support band. But only if we manage to get above these highs right there. And if the RSI does not form a lower high, and that's pretty much the entire story. I mean, my main scenario again, it's still the exact same. I think we're going to probably drop to $48,000 in the short term and then later in August or September we can start some kind of much bigger move to the upside maybe to the market support band and then later in the year in October we can get the final drop in the C-wave and get to $37,000 and that's going to be the bare market low.

[00:05:52]But I also said that if the price manages to get above that high right there at $65,500, we could be in a scenario where maybe we're only starting the second wave of the much bigger C wave of the bare market right now. And that means that the second wave was not in right there.

[00:06:08]But instead, it's going to mean that this, you know, first wave actually pretty much overextended and it formed to a much bigger one, two, three, four, five. And the low of the first wave was right there and not you know back in that area like you know I thought it was. And what that means is that right now what we have on the chart was an AB and we are currently working on the C-wave and of that Cwave we maybe have some kind of another one two and this is going to be the third wave of the you know one two then we can get some kind of fourth wave and then fifth wave that's going to complete the Cwave of the you know AB right here and then that's when we get rejected and that's going to be enough to then get the actual red third wave on the chart. If that's going to be the case, the target for the third wave is going to have to be adjusted and it's going to have to be between $46,000 and $40,000. But as long as we stay below these highs right here, then I'm going to assume that we're still in the third wave and that this move to the upside right here was just some kind of very overextended one to set up, which is going to be followed by the third wave and then the fourth wave and then the fifth wave. And that's going to be the actual low of the red third wave right there. So basically, you know, the next move to the downside can be the gray third wave on the chart.

[00:07:25]Then this is going to be the fourth wave, the gray fourth wave, and then the last move at 48K might be the fifth wave right there, the gray fifth wave. That's what we kind of need to do right now.

[00:07:36]Maybe we're not going to do that the exact same way that I said, but I think that Bitcoin is still going to drop at the end of the year. What you have to consider is that in the 2018 cycle, we did something kind of similar. Let's quickly go to the Bitcoin chart. So here, Bitcoin was going sideways for a couple of months.

[00:07:54]It started going sideways around June and it went sideways until November. And why did it go sideways? Because during that time, the S&P 500 chart was forming new cycle highs every single month.

[00:08:05]Let's actually see where it was. So I think it was somewhere back in this area. As you can see, it was forming cycle highs. But if you look at what the monthly chart was doing during that time on the S&P 500 chart, it had some bearish divergence. The RSI went lower, but the price went higher. And we paid for that at the end of the year. And what do you think happened when the S&P 500 chart dropped, Bitcoin also dropped?

[00:08:28]And let's quickly show you what happened on the Bitcoin chart. So, after going sideways for months, from like I said, June to around November, when we dropped, we went from $6,500 to around $3,000 in a matter of around 1 month. And this was the actual bare market low. And why did it happen? Like I said, because of the S&P 500 chart.

[00:08:51]So, personally, even if we go sideways right now, I am not going to believe that the low is in until we manage to get above the 200 day moving average.

[00:08:59]And that does not usually happen in the bare market. So even if we get, you know, to it, it's probably still going to lead to a rejection. We might even get rejected by the B market support band like we did back in that area. And that's going to mean that maybe the price is just waiting for the B market support band to catch up. It's currently at $69,000 and for it to catch up, we're going to need maybe like another couple of weeks and then that's going to be enough to get rejected and then start a move to the downside. Also, I mean, here we're going to get a cross very soon.

[00:09:29]The red line of the B market support band is going to go above the green line. The last time something like this happened was back in this area and that's when Bitcoin got a shorter move to the upside followed by a 50% drop in a matter of 4 months.

[00:09:43]I don't think there's much to be bullish about right now. Yes, there are some people who believe the bare market low is in only because Bitcoin has not put a new bare market low, you know, in the last couple of weeks. But I mean, but if you just look at what we did every single bare market so far, you will see it took Bitcoin exactly one year to bottom after topping every single cycle.

[00:10:03]So, I'm not going to go against history.

[00:10:05]I think that's a pretty bad idea, especially if the history keeps repeating itself. But obviously, not financial advice. And that's pretty much it for this video. I hope you enjoyed.

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