The Midterms Have a New Scoreboard

[00:00:00]Welcome to Predictable with Stu. We have some interesting new tools that are being developed uh today [music] with elections and how you can kind of follow along with elections. Whether you're just looking for the information, who's going to win, who's going to lose, or if you're going the other way and you're trying to make some money on prediction markets, these are both really uh they're helpful in both ways.

[00:00:20]I think we'll get to those in a second.

[00:00:22]We have the results from the Arizona primary last night and your comments, a lot of great ones at predictableshow.com. Go there, put your email address in, drop comments down there [music] because we love answering those and we love trying to see where you guys have interest and what you are thinking about and [music] how you're doing in these markets if you happen to be participating as well. So join us at predictableshow.com.

[00:00:46][music] [music] So, I'm here in Dallas today at my fabulous, predictable studio uh unexpectedly because yet again I had to deal with the American travel nightmare that is just I mean it seems to be constant right now. We were on vacation uh we were in Massachusetts uh last I guess last week and we were coming back and uh we got we left the house we were at at around 11:00 a.m.

[00:01:28]Got to the airport and were was at the airport from 11:00 a.m. to approximately 900 p.m. which is a really great time to be in an airport. It was one of these small airports that does not have you know anything in it. There's like one vending machine and one little store.

[00:01:46]Uh, which the lady was super nice who worked there, but she was the type of person who was like, "You know what? I'm not gonna get like CocaCola products.

[00:01:54]I'm going to, you know, the the 48th uh highest selling soda in the world.

[00:02:00]That's too trendy for us. We're going to get some weird stuff. I think hemp is in all of our products. I don't know what was going on there." And so you sat there with no ability to get food or anything else. We got onto the plane finally. Then we boarded for a while.

[00:02:15]And as soon as we got on the plane, by the way, we don't think we're going to be taking off for a while. Uh, why did you board us then? Okay. So, we got on, we're sitting there for hours and hours and hours. Then they say, "Hey, by the way, if we don't get up in the air by 3:30 p.m., uh, we're going to have to go back and bring you back to the airport."

[00:02:35]Which we were all very excited about.

[00:02:36]Uh, of course, that didn't happen. They brought us back to the airport. They couldn't put us back into the place past security because it was too small. So, they had to bring us to the pre-security area, which the good thing about that is there is one restaurant there. So, you're able to eat uh uh a meal and then get back through security the entire time thinking this was definitely going to get cancelled. At the last minute, they say, "By the way, a window is open.

[00:03:01]We can get you out right now if we go right now." So, we're hustling through security. We get on the plane and we fly. We have a very very bumpy flight uh from Massachusetts to Philadelphia where we land and then have to stay in a hotel in Philadelphia. Uh they couldn't get us on a plane until 8 o'clock at night. So we were there the entire day which I will say was actually fun. We got to see some old friends and uh got to show the kids some parts of Philadelphia uh that they haven't seen before. Um they also because it was Philadelphia, they saw some things they had never seen before.

[00:03:29]That's not necessar necessarily a good part of the story. Uh got back at like 100 a.m. or something yesterday. And then, you know, it was in here doing the shows the next day. And then, uh, we got an invite to a, uh, a meeting, a breakfast uh, situation in Washington DC from our friends over at Kelchi. And Kelsey, we we love Kaly. They're one of the prediction markets that I use all the time. and uh they were doing some uh sort of an announcement on the data they were going to be using and the way they were going to be presenting this uh as we approach the elections and like look this I'm a loser okay you know the things that are exciting in my life we're talking about mostly are spreadsheet related okay so the fact that they were inviting me to this I was really excited about I'm like look I know I was just here I know I just got in at 1 in the morning I don't care we're turning around the next day I guess it was Monday But we we uh got in Monday early morning. Uh did the shows Monday, then got the invite, had to go fly back out to DC on Tuesday. Uh and then uh as I was finishing up doing the show here, rushing to the airport to get out so we could get to this thing the next day on Wednesday to find all this information out, uh my flight got cancelled. And then it got cancelled again. They moved us around and then I was just I just gave up. I frankly just gave up. there was nothing more I could do. Terrible weather uh yesterday, I guess, in DC for a while. Long story short, I didn't get to this this breakfast, which I was really interested in because I, you know, look, this is my my life, my the stuff I love uh I love looking at this data. I love breaking down elections and I love trying to figure out what's going to happen and how that relates to the prediction market world. That being said, we got kind of a a look as to part of what was going on here uh in a public announcement that happened as well.

[00:05:25]Kalshi election hub. The Kouchi has election launched an election hub for prediction markets ahead of the midterms. This is really really interesting and it kind of comes to a central point uh of what prediction markets are, how they're being certainly utilized today and what they mean to people. Should they even be allowed?

[00:05:46]This is an interesting thing. I mean, they're they're under attack constantly.

[00:05:48]Let me show you what this uh election hub looks like. This is the uh Kashi election hub, and it is a an interesting uh kind of way to boil down this information. What you see here in those on um podcast, I'll just describe it for you, but you have a map of the United States and all the Senate races. This is we're on the Senate page here.

[00:06:10]Republicans have a 55% chance to control the Senate. You've seen graphics like this from maybe the New York Times, but that was, you know, maybe polling data or maybe it's Nate Silver's data or whoever else is putting it together.

[00:06:22]This is prediction market data telling you uh that a 55% chance to control the Senate is what the market believes. And if you look at each individual state, you can see the red the, you know, they're shaded red and blue. The yellow ones are sort of in that tossup territory. By the way, I will note that Texas is in the tossup area right now.

[00:06:41]If that doesn't freak you out, uh, it probably should. What is it? What are they listing at that? Is that 58? I can barely see it. My eyes are terrible.

[00:06:47]5644. Uh, again, I I think Paxton's a pretty good value at 5644, even though the polling is pretty favorable to Tel Rico right now. I don't think the people of Texas have really dove into this, you know, been able to dive into this race yet to to go through that. Alaska was another one I put on my tossup race. Uh, this is back when we were talking about um the Senate preview. One of the first things we did here at predictable, um, nobody at that point had Alaska in the toss-up race. You see that's 5446 for the Democrats are favored in that race right now. That is a really worrisome race if you happen to be someone who wants more conservative policies. Ohio, I'm I'm not is the other yellow one on their map right now. I'm not as uh as skeptical in the Republican chances there, but shared Brown's a well-known guy. It's a tough candidate, so in a bad Republican year, that's definitely up for grabs. And then you see the other states that are bouncing around. You see some lighter pink for the more less secure races. I like that Iowa race a lot. I've talked to you about it multiple times. Um and in Iowa, you've got a situation where uh the uh where uh the Republican is at 60 what is it? 63%.

[00:07:59]I'm I'm a buy there. I don't think um the Democrats are going to pull off Iowa. Uh but we will see as that one gets closer. I like that one there. Can you show me South Carolina real quick, Adam, as we go over there? This is another interesting one I've been talking about lately. It is at 84 84%. The reason why that's at 84% is largely that should be probably in the low 90s, 92 93%. The reason why it's an 84 is because we don't know what's going to happen in the Senate primary, which still needs to happen. And we don't know anything about Lindsey Graham's sister, right? like she's got a you know she has part like her old last name was you know she's married now but she her her last name's the same they're in the same family that it seems to be no one really knows what she even believes she was working for like the she was working for blind people so she may be very nice uh we don't know really what her beliefs are yet or how she performs under this type of unique pressure which is why she's at 84% but unless she's a total dud uh she should be able to win in South Carolina so I kind of like that at 83 84 85% I've picked up a small to medium position there just to you know keep uh transparent with you but that those are a couple races that I I really like that Montana one up there what do they got that at 86 is that what that is that there's I don't I don't hate that as well uh 87% chance don't hate that as a place for Republican value now you look at the Democrats here you see like a state like Georgia which is normally a very purple state uh right now they have that at uh 88% for John Oaf, which I think is appropriately priced. Honestly, I you know, Collins is close in the polling, but I think Oaf, they're going to dump money into that race if it's even close. And OAF is one of those guys who's looking toward the presidency and probably will wind up winning that race.

[00:09:45]And one other one I'll highlight. I wasn't even planning on doing this. This is what's great about this this uh this effort by Kelshi. Uh Maine, give me Maine. Uh this is a race where you had Graham Platner. uh he was way way ahead.

[00:09:57]Scandals broke. Came back to about a 50-50 race. And now we're showing it at 6436 Democrats because they're saying, "Well, the scandal guy is out. The Democrats should win this race. It's a purplish state leaning blue. It's a should be a more bluishleaning year. Uh that's why he's ahead." 36% though, and by the way, it's Troy Jackson who's likely going to be that nominee. 36% is really low for Susan Collins. I do expect her to get into at least the 40s at some point. and pro and and certainly has a good chance to win that race. So anyway, that's a quick little overview of the Senate. What I liked about that though is they've got the Senate there, they've got the House there, they've got the gubanatorial races there. You can kind of keep an eye on everything very very um simply and cleanly. For a person like me who's a, you know, a relatively big trader, I'm on there every single day making trades. It's important for me to be able to look at that access and access that information easily. You know, before you're you're clicking around to sites, you're trying to get the right state up. This is much much better. They have a similar thing uh called a like their primary hub which is nice as well. Kind of gives you an outline of the calendar and and you can kind of click around to each state as it's happening. We'll talk about Arizona here in a little bit. But this was an interesting part of this because one of the situations that we're dealing with with prediction markets right now. Oh, is this gambling? Is there any value to this? This is just, you know, it's 18 year olds going on there and losing their money. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. A lot of this is nonsense. We've we've disproved a lot of it before. I think honestly pretty easily. You know, yes, you can make all sorts of complaints about these things. I think the complaints that currently exist are uh, you know, they're they're third grade complaints.

[00:11:34]They're people who haven't really thought about this all that deeply. And if they have, you know, they may have an an aversion to certain things that go on in our financial system that they they don't like, and they're going to make those points, or they might have connections to other uh adversarial forces to prediction markets. Um, but I don't think there these are concerns that are all that uh compelling, at least to me. But one of the things that is compelling and I think quite clearly compelling is the value that prediction markets can bring to the American people. And when you look at a page like we were just looking at where you're looking at who's going to win the election, that's information that is crucial to people on a day-to-day basis.

[00:12:16]and they're constantly being misled by entrenched sources in the media, in campaigns, ideological circles, all these things. I you think about, well, who's going to win a state? Is Donald Trump going to win an election? You know, the media told you no. Uh, everybody outside of Donald Trump's campaign pretty much told you no. People who were analyzing it told you no. In 2016, I was pretty much sure it was a no. But prediction markets were much, much closer to the reality and many times predicted those things ahead of time. These are really, really good tools that bring valuable information to the American people. And let me give you a stat that backs this up. This is a stat from this particular article at CNBC. Koshi said in a press release, they said three quarters of all visitors to the platform come just to see the odds on individual events while only one in four actually trade. If you're on this uh you're you're here at predictableshow.com, there is a like I've seen the data of who watches the show. Um first of all, you know, you all could you know you you're all uh a little too ritzy, frankly, for my taste. I've seen it. Uh the the income data on this show is ridiculous. And by the way, I I have no problem with you. I like rich people. I like elite people. I'm glad you're here.

[00:13:34]I'm glad you're here. Uh but you know, look, the show does really really well with an audience that is uh that that is very affluent uh who is very tied into politics, who cares about this stuff on a day-to-day basis. And you know, look, that's what we're building here. We have a you know, great eyes. We'll take anybody. Uh but we like people who are really thinking about these things and care about these outcomes when it comes to what's going to happen to our country. Not just whether you can make money off of it. That's great. I I think that's a real real positive. We try to bring that to you on a day-to-day basis and try to cover the things that matter to you if you do want to make money on prediction markets. But secondarily, uh the big part of this is people come and watch this show all the time that are just people who care about how the country is going to be affected, how people are going, how they can look at the future of their business, right?

[00:14:21]They might be if you happen to be a person who um is uh maybe tariffs affect your business in a big way positively or negatively. You want to know who that next candidate is going to be, who the next president is going to be, who's who's going to be controlling the Senate. These are things that are very very crucial to your day-to-day life, your business and your family. Not to mention the important social issues and everything else that we talk about on a day-to-day basis amongst each other. We want to know what's going to be coming.

[00:14:48]And making an unpredictable world a little bit more predictable is crucial.

[00:14:54]That's why val these prediction markets bring incredible value to the American people. And you can say, well, I don't like them. I don't want to trade on those markets. You might not want to, but the bottom line is you probably care about the data behind it.

[00:15:08]And this is what's a great a great development here uh from Koshi where they're putting all this this information in a place that's easily accessible. This isn't necessarily for traders. If you're a big trader like I am, that's not necessarily for you and me. We'll find that data. I'll find the states. I'll find the markets that I want to watch and and and and uh take a position on. I'm going to be able to do that because, you know, it's my job, right? I'm doing this stuff all the time. But for the average person now, they have an outlet that cuts through the nonsense from a cable news network.

[00:15:39]Cuts through the nonsense from partisan media. By the way, I mean that sometimes on our own side. I can't tell you how many times I've been told that some Republican that every poll is telling me and prediction markets are telling me are 15 points behind are going to win.

[00:15:52]Oh, no. Actually, you don't understand what's going on on the ground. Oh, don't I really? Is that true? Because what usually happens is that candidate loses.

[00:15:59]Then you have a situation where uh you have the media, you have partisan media, you have the campaigns themselves.

[00:16:05]We did really well last night. We'll talk about it in a minute in Arizona because we didn't believe internal polling from campaigns. We said, you know what, that's not true. We went the opposite way on it and we were able to profit on the prediction markets because of it. But because I was not the only one uh with that judgment, the prediction markets had that pretty well lined out for you in advance. So that's what we do here. People ask, "So what is what is predictable?" I have friends and and people who be like, "So what is the company you're doing now?" I mean, you left that that Glenn show. I mean, that was a big show. Why would you do something like that? Well, it's a couple I mean a couple reasons why we built this company this way. Number one, it is a show about prediction markets. I do look for positions to try to improve your uh your wallet a little bit. I want to find opportunities for you to improve your financial situation. You know, you know, I'm not like, you know, some a financial adviser, but I've been doing prediction markets for over a decade and I've done really well at them. And so, a lot of people when I talk about that, you know, I'm in discussions with my friends and everything else, they'll say, "Hey, well, wait, what? How does this work? Uh, you know, wait, can you tell me some of those positions?" Well, yeah, I shouldn't, but I shouldn't be hiding them to just them. We should be able to talk about them openly. I'd like to hear your positions as well. It's helped me. I can tell you multiple times helped me with big trades because you in the audience have found positions on particular markets I didn't even know were out there and have put in the comments at predict predictableshow.com.

[00:17:33]This is something that happens all the time. So there is that whole situation we built it for that reason. But it's not just a show for traders. It's not just a company for traders. This is a this is a place where we can look at the news of the day and we can filter it through that lens of prediction markets to give us better insight into that.

[00:17:51]This wouldn't make sense for me to do a show just for traders. There's not enough of them. You know, it's growing really really fast, but there's not enough people who are doing that yet for me to just do a show targeted to give you nerdy trading advice every day.

[00:18:06]There are some shows that do stuff like that and and that's great for I like watching them because I'm, you know, a big trader. But the at the end of the day, this audience is built up of people who want primarily to care about the outcome of what happens to this great country that they love. And prediction markets are a great tool to understand that world beyond what the media is telling you, what campaigns are telling you, what your friends are telling you, what prediction markets uh are based on, which is polling and information, and taking all of that together and bringing it down to one number that's really easily understandable. That's a real tool for us to understand the world in a way that is better than any other thing we've ever had in previous generations.

[00:18:51]That's something that's real and and something that should be encouraged and should be growing. And now we have a lot of people in Washington that are opposed to it. Thankfully, we have an administration right now that is uh friendly to financial advancements. They're they're friendly to financial innovation and using that innovation to make the country a better place. That's how I see it. And we talked to Michael Celig, the CFTC chair.

[00:19:15]That's how he sees it. And I think this is really, really positive. But we have to make sure that we understand that these are not just financial tools for people to use. They are tools to bring information to you. And while some of the information you might not care about, you might not care about where LeBron James goes. You might not care about who wins Love Island. Uh that is information that is important to a lot of people. And the fact that we can improve that information is uh uh unadulterated good in my in my mind. Uh full stop. I don't I don't you know I think it's a positive even if that information isn't as crucial as an election but when that election information is crucial and it is there and it's access that it's information that you can access as a regular person by the way for free you know we're putting this show out on on YouTube we put this show out you can get this information every single day I want to make sure you get as much information as you can that way she's putting that information you don't have to be a member of Kali you don't have to be you know registrant on the website to see that information that's just out there for you to have. It's it's a it's a incredible innovation. It's the best uh information that you've ever been able to have on elections and it's just out there for you for free. That's a positive, man. That's a great thing. And now it's it's going to be something that while there are many voices that are going to try to shut it down because they want to control that information, it's going to be really hard to do so after people see how much better this is than the ways they previously were able to inform themselves. So that's a real positive. If you want to check that out, you know, you check it out. You don't have to go on Ky. You don't have to put your email address in. You don't have to do anything. Uh Khi, uh they just look for their election hub and you check that out. You get that information throughout the election season. uh and make sure to do that there. Now, you if you want to get all the updates at predictableshow.com, we do ask you to give the email address. We can keep in touch with you. Make sure you know social media is always hard. You got algorithms we're fighting with. I mean, YouTube, if we're if you're on YouTube right now, make sure to click the like button. We fight with that algorithm all the time largely because, you know, we used to do a show that was about uh politics and kind of in a different spin. And so, you know, we're trying to retach the algorithm, hey, this is information that people like uh and they care about. So, if you're watching this show, please just take a time, follow the show, click the bell for notifications, but most most easily, the easiest thing you can do, it's free.

[00:21:33]Just click that like button. It helps us get the message out a little bit more.

[00:21:37]I'm going to take a break. I'm going to come back on the other side with the results from last night in Arizona.

[00:21:41]We'll give you a little bit of a preview as well as what's coming up in the in the coming weeks as far as primaries.

[00:21:46]We've got it's been kind of a slow time.

[00:21:48]It's about to pick up steam. You're about to get a lot of this stuff in your face when it comes to elections and primaries in the coming weeks. So, we'll get you there next.

[00:22:02][music] Welcome back. We looking at the Arizona situation last night. There was a primary in Arizona. I was happy there was at least something to talk about because uh in Arizona at least gave us a primary. We had a couple weeks off where there was nothing. I will tell you we're about to go back into primary season in a big way. Uh it's not I think it's not next week, but it's the week after we they just start coming fast and furious again. Uh we have four or five in one night. So going to be tons of opportunities here in the next couple weeks if you're interested in that particular thing. Arizona primary takeaways, Trump's picks prevail and house Democrat survives. I want to get into some of the details on these markets. Uh it wasn't I to be honest with you was not the sexiest evening of election programming you're ever going to have. You know it was a lot of blowouts and a lot of sure things and a lot of and I say that uh with the uh first amendment a sure thing is always in air quotes. There's never really a sure thing but it there's not like a ton of drama as to who was going to win in these elections. Let me give you a good example of this Arizona Republican gubinatorial nominee uh you know Andy Biggs. This is a big story if you look at this is the last month. I mean not that or so this is all time sorry this goes back you go back to October you know there's some questions I mean bigs is probably at 65 70% um but honestly that goes really really harshly the other way and hangs since about March he's been in the mid 90s when I went on there last night um just to check out who and what uh was going to happen there can I make a couple of percent on any bigs the fact that he was going to win was I say as close to a sure thing that is humanly possible is already at like 99.8%. There just wasn't really much to get there. So that came out kind of the way that we thought and you know you're talking 50 plus point victory. I did not play the margin markets on that. The margin markets if you don't know um were are basically how much you're going to win by was the margin of victory and that went all the way up to a 50point victory or more for Andy Biggs. I did not get too involved in that particular uh market. Now, where we did do pretty well, especially for only a couple of days, uh, talking about this, Arizona won Republican nominee.

[00:24:20]This was Jay Feelely. We did have Jay Feelely in the 80s and 90s. Can you go to the one month uh version of that chart if you wouldn't mind, Adam, you know, give me just kind of bring the uh uh the cursor around there? You got, you know, look, you know, he's at about 90% here, right? Mid 80s to 90s. This is where we were investing in Feelely. Um I I liked him in this market quite a bit.

[00:24:42]Uh did think he was going to win. And if you look at maybe the past couple of days, you see it rise into the 90s. We were buying this yesterday in this area, right? 91 92%. Again, you're talking about 8 to 10% profit, but you're turning that around in a very short period. These, you know, that's a great thing. One the uh what is it? The seventh amendment to the predictable constitution is know your APR. I have them written down over here so I don't forget them. But know your APR, your annual percentage rate. So getting a 10% profit in a day is a really really nice APR where uh you know looking at you know 10% over six months is still a good return certainly better than you're getting in any account but maybe not as as sexy. So Feelely, we did very well with Jay Feelely in that particular race. And um this is another one kind of the same situation. These are the type of opportunities that were there yesterday. They're not always thousand% gains, right? Sometimes they're 10% gains. Had a lot of those yesterday. One of my biggest positions yesterday was in Arizona 01, the Democratic race on the other side of the aisle, uh where you had uh this situation. Amish Amish Sha uh was the guy there. Um and uh he wound up going, this is the probably the closest call. This was like a 7525 race, which was the biggest thing. I w up winning with uh no on Jonathan Treble as well. Uh kind of more of a businessman profile. Just does not strike me as the type of thing the Democrats actually want right now. It's a weird sort of race because uh uh Galen Woods is a former Republican trying to present themselves as a moderate. uh Sha is also kind of trying to say even though they were saying a lot of liberal things trying to also present kind of as a moderate he wound up uh winning and Arizona. Do we have Arizona 05 the Republican nominee there? Um this is uh another one I had a larger position on.

[00:26:43]I would say this this might have been my biggest one of the night which was Mark Lamb. Uh Lamb, if you look at the overall race had a period where he was actually not even the leader in this race. Uh that went away. Go to the month view if you will. um relatively recently. Uh this is the month view and you see that that lead kind of fade away where Kenan was up at about 60% 65% favorite there. Uh that faded away left at the end of June and really for all of July was a nice run up for Mark Lamb as he kind of survived a a scandalous period where it looked like he was in danger. I didn't buy this early. I I didn't I I didn't really know the dynamics of this race until uh more recently and started becoming convinced that Lamb was going to be the uh look at that July 14th time period there if you could uh Adam. Yeah, you see about 86% favorite for Lamb. This is about the time roughly I started buying again 10 to 15% um as far as pure profit but over a couple of weeks as a nice APR and even yesterday we were buying in the low 90s uh as we discussed on yesterday's live streams uh in between that 87 to 94 area is where we were. So that's kind of what it was. I don't want to spend too much time honestly on Arizona from yesterday because there wasn't it wasn't you know incredible drama not a lot of switching going on. And it was basically a very chalk day, if you will. All the favorites pretty much won. They won by, you know, amounts that you'd kind of expect. The one long shot I had was Mark Lamb by more than I think I initially said 20, which is what I was confident in. I don't know if he'll get to 20 or not. I haven't looked at the updated uh situation over the past hour or so, but he was around 18 points last time I saw it. He might get to 20. I went up instead to go going with 30 or more, which was sort of a mistake on my part.

[00:28:32]He didn't really He's not going to get there. I think he's going to wind up in the 20s but not quite to 30%. So that was the only position that I I looked at that I I had lost in but it was an 8 to1 long shot so I kind of expected that.

[00:28:43]Otherwise we did very very well though not it was not a spectacular explosive day. It was a it was a workmanlike day and we take those here at predictable.

[00:28:51]We want that. We'll take those 10%.

[00:28:53]We'll take those 5%s. We'll take those 2%s especially when they're over really short periods of time. we could take that cash and we can roll it into something else that leads uh you know these prediction markets uh you have people in there who are smart who are using all this information and trying to come up with a position that helps inform the public and of course winds up maybe paying for I don't know my lunch today maybe a little bit more I mean I do eat big lunches so I mean that's I don't know if we could pay for the entire lunch uh but you know that's just the way this works so I want to take a break come back on the other side you had a bunch of questions a lot of comments from you atpredictableshow.com if you want to get involved in that. I love answering your questions. It's like something probably my favorite part of this job so far is just being able to get your perspectives, hearing about the markets that you're finding, uh hearing your reactions. How did you do? Did you succeed? Did you fail? Did you learn something? Uh do you have an idea for another constitutional amendment because you you yourself wound up doing something right or wrong? And uh what are your questions? Where are you in this process? I'd love to help walk you through that. Go to predictableshow.com and put your email address in. Join us.

[00:29:59]It's a growing community trying to make a very unpredictable world. A little bit more predictable.

[00:30:10]Welcome back to Predictable with Stu. We have some comments from you. I always love when you do this. Predictable show.com. Just go there and drop uh your comments wherever you want and we usually find them and we like answering them. Michael Dean writes this one in.

[00:30:24]During the lull in elections for the past couple of weeks, I took time to build my bankroll with sports markets and for those only for those sports that I felt comfortable placing a position on. Couple baseball games, World Cup, tennis game. Uh long story short, I'm up about 34% overall from my initial deposit. That didn't come without considerable risk. I love this. This was minimized with two of our amendments.

[00:30:46]The surefire thing is a surefire thing is never surefire, which is the first amendment. A sure thing is always always has air quotes because it's never really a sure thing. And time equals risk, which is the fifth amendment to the predictable constitution. Time equals risk. Um, basically, I waited until games were pretty much decided. The last possible moment to place the winning position, not thinking I'm going to do that again because one change in the last moment of a game could ruin everything. I'm just going to stick to house money. Now, this is great. I love this. The fact that you can go in there, hopefully we're helping you with these amendments and helping you think at least about trading. You don't have to follow all of my dumb rules. I mean, you'll probably have rules of of your own, but I I love that we're, you know, we're thinking about this all together and we're trying to build towards the future here. And if I can get you in a position, if we can work together and get you to a position where you're in there with house money, nothing better than that. Nothing better than that. Uh because if you lose, you don't lose. And if you win, you win double because you've you're winning on top of winnings. And I love that. I love house money. So congratulations, Michael. That's great. Sports markets, as we've said, can be particularly ones where you're talking about games.

[00:31:56]They're really, really efficient, right?

[00:31:58]These things are there's lots of money in it. Lots of people are in them to keep these things. You know, there's a lot of data. It's a lot harder, for example, to enter an election market because an election market um, you know, doesn't have maybe any polling at all, right? There's tons and tons of data.

[00:32:12]So, there's tons of money coming into them and they're very sharp. Uh, so you got to be careful in sports markets.

[00:32:17]That's why when I talk about sports markets a lot of times I like talking about like for example will LeBron retire uh this year where which we a position we did very very well on that wasn't necessarily based on it was more on basing knowing LeBron and knowing the way he's handled the media over the years and the type of person he is frankly that helped us there. It's a different thing when you're talking about a game. So just you know be careful there but it's you know sometimes fun to dabble. Uh Jared Mars writes this. Jared says, or no, sorry, as the title was Jared Mars. Uh Jared says, "There's a couchy market for whether a human will land on Mars before California starts the highspeed rail. I didn't want to invest in it because it doesn't pay out until 2050. But I think it's funny that it exists." I totally agree. As you may know, if you watch Studios America, you know, the California rail system is like one of my heartfelt obsessions. Like, I love how terrible the situation has been. I mean, that's I feel bad for the people who've wasted all their taxpayer money. That sucks. But it is fascinating to watch California flail and fail over and over and over again on that. Uh that's just a kind of a sidebar, your honor. Uh but I will say it is a real market. By the way, this one is on Khi. Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? Now, I assume when they say starts, they don't mean start construction because of course they they have built little bits and pieces of it.

[00:33:38]But I mean, I assume that means starting it maybe even the entire run from California to Los Angeles. And honestly, if you were talking about the way the law was initially written, which was um from Los Angeles to San Francisco in a certain amount of time, I might actually take Mars.

[00:33:57]What was it? 40% 40% chance we'll land on Mars before California is even getting their their highspeed rail going. I will say that's another one I would say you got to read the rules. uh which is the second amendment to uh the predictable constitution. But uh that's an interesting one and I love that they've created that. That's fantastic.

[00:34:14]Okay, next up Tizzle writes in about mention markets says they're absolutely the best. This is where I've made the majority of my earnings mostly due to the fact that politicians love to talk.

[00:34:23]For example, Donald Trump, which he does. He loves to talk. However, you have to be careful when your politician walks out in the middle of the interview like Trump did a couple weeks ago.

[00:34:32]Apparently, they don't consider that as an event that does not qualify. Yes. If he I think if the interview starts and then he just walks out and it's uh half as long as you expect it to be, you might get burned on that. I I mention markets are really fun. I really like mention markets because they're really fun. I don't think I'm good at them yet.

[00:34:50]I I you know, maybe I will join this uh party for a while. We've talked to traders that are really, really good at them. Have made hundreds of thousands of dollars on mention markets. I just feel like I for every good one I have, I have a bad one. But if that cancels out and I have some fun doing it, I'm fine with it. I keep the the numbers low on mentioned markets until I get good at them. I'm keeping that number uh very very low. Finally, Dishona writes Florida primaries coming up. Uh put in a small position on fishback at I think it says point4, but I assume that means four cents. I think that's around where he is. I don't think he's that low. Uh if he said point4, I'd have to look that up. Immediately offered it up for sale at three different prices. Do you think I'll sell any of it? I am. So, one thing when you think about elections, if you take someone, and we've done this strategy a couple of times to uh mixed results. We hit one uh and the other one was, I think, pretty much a wash. But take someone with a very low position, longshot candidate, and uh there's a couple things that can happen. One, they could turn it around. There could be a scandal. They could go the other way.

[00:35:49]And they could take someone who's at four or point four, and it can rise up.

[00:35:53]That's a real long shot, right? You're you're you're hoping against hope. But maybe they get a good poll and that number pops up from say point4 to two.

[00:36:03]Well, that's more than double your money. It's more than triple your money, right? So, you have that's a real gain if you can find those situations. And a good way to discipline yourself to not get too hopeful that he's going to go from 04 or 4 cents all the way to the the winning the the uh the election is to just buy something and then immediately put it for sale at a higher price. Right? You buy it at 4 cents, you sell it, you put it autom, you put half the easiest way to think about this, and this is the way I when I try to discipline myself when I'm successful doing that. This is the way that I do it, which is I'll buy something at 2 cents and I will immediately sell half of it at 4 cents. Now, that doesn't mean it's going to sell right away. It's just going to be on the market. But if I do sell those shares, I will be paying for my entire initial position, and I'll still have half of it left to play with.

[00:36:52]Maybe it goes up higher, maybe it doesn't. maybe I just break even. But if you can do that, usually a lot of times there's a chance at a little bit of a bump and you can take that and uh and and play with house money as we were just talking about. Um the other thing that happens is and I I hit this all the time. This is why I encourage you to watch the live streams when the results come out because there are times where just that initial batch of votes gets people excited about a long shot and it pops from two to eight for a second and then it pops back down. Well, if it gets to eight and you have sale you have shares on sale at four, that means you sold those shares. Maybe you've sold them at three different positions like they're talking about. I don't have it much hope at all for Fishbach to win that nomination. I'm actually I have a pretty large position on Donald's to win that primary. We've talked about it before. It's one of those situations where I I I think he's, you know, got a real clear path, I think, to win that nomination. But that doesn't mean that there could be a spike uh for Fishbach at at some point. We will see on that front as we go forward. That's in a few weeks. I can't remember. I don't have the the election calendar in front of me. Maybe I'll bring that. We'll do that on tomorrow's show just to kind of give you a preview. But we have one more week of very limited action uh next week. Is it South Dakota, I think, has has something next week. And then we go into more prime time primary season in August where there's four and five elections in a night and we're gonna have tons of stuff uh to uh to I think profit on. So, we'll watch that with you. Thanks so much for joining us. Uh make sure to join us on the Substack. It's at predictableshow.com.

[00:38:21]Go there, put your email address in, get all these updates as we do them. We were sending out notes last night in the middle of the election, kind of monitoring where things were going, looking for those opportunities and looking to get better information as to what's going to happen to the elections, to the politicians, to our country.

[00:38:37]That's all incredibly important and the most important thing when you're talking about uh the results of these elections.

[00:38:43]Question is, can we make a little money on the side as well? I think we can.

[00:38:46]Okay, we'll try to do that together.

[00:38:47]Thanks so much for joining us and we'll see you tomorrow on predictableshow.com.