Wall Street Just Rebuilt 2008 !?!

[00:00:02]Good morning, my magnificent monsters.

[00:00:05]Got the ultra wild passion fruit monster this morning. And while you're watching all the shenanigans in Iran and maybe the AI flesh out, Wall Street has been rebuilding the same threats to financial well-being as 2008.

[00:00:26]And yeah, I said it. So, good morning my magnificent monsters. I hope you had your caffeine. If not, go grab a Monster. Maybe something a little milder like coffee or whatever keeps your eyes open because we're going to take a look at the financial engineering that could make the AIG bailout look like a practice round. Over the weekend, the news cycle was completely dominated by the restart of whatever shenanigans around the straight of Hormos and Bloomberg. quietly dropped a report about UBS and some other major players using insurance rappers. Insurance rappers. Oh, what the heck is that? For private credit.

[00:01:09]So, why does that all matter? Well, I want to tell you right now. Your 401k, your pension, your target date retirement fund, you know, they're all hunting for yield.

[00:01:21]any anybody that's out there managing bigger chunks of money is hunting for yield.

[00:01:28]And right now, Wall Street is taking liquidity, taking those risky private loans and wrapping them up in an insurance guarantee.

[00:01:41]What is that even?

[00:01:44]This is just like what AIG did. Now, after they package that crap up, they stick a label on it that's investment grade and then they sell them to your retirement fund manager at less than 1% capital charge instead of like the 30% they should charge. And if the insuranceer insurers are backing these loans, if they get downgraded, the whole structure unwinds here. your retirement portfolio takes a punch in the face. And so we're going to talk about the tickers that are exposed like KRE, XLF, and how you can spot the blast radius before things possibly unwind more violently.

[00:02:30]Now, let's back up. Let's talk about how we even got here, right? Wall Street didn't learn that leverage is dangerous after 2008, and they didn't learn after 2000. They haven't Well, maybe we learn temporarily, but then we forget and we think that this time is different. Everybody's heard that, right? This time's different.

[00:02:52]There's no AI bubble. This time's different.

[00:02:55]Well, they learned that if you spread it through enough banks, through enough insurers, through enough pension funds, you actually become systemically important.

[00:03:08]If you spread high- risk through enough stuff, you become systemically important.

[00:03:16]H high-risk leverage. That just doesn't make sense, does it? But you can take and make a reckless bet a loan.

[00:03:27]And when you do that, when it blows out, you go bankrupt. But if you make it through enough institutions and you create this layer of too big to fail, then the government and the Fed has to bail you out.

[00:03:46]It's not really risk management. It's kind of hostage taking for the American public. So I call this the insurance rapper trade. It's an elegant cynicism, if you will.

[00:03:57]Step one, you take the loans to companies that cannot get traditional bank financing. This is the private credit market. It's pretty booming. Um, it really kicked off after 2008 because all that kind of lending got regulated out of existence, at least for traditional banks, and it built this whole underworld of private credit markets. It's booming. It's huge. Now, step two, you package you start packaging these loans up, right? Credit private credit's only so big. You got to get into the you got to get into the regular equity market. So, you package them up. Then, you get an insurer to wrap that baby up and a nice guarantee.

[00:04:47]Then you get a no-name investment evaluator to slap investment grade label on top of it.

[00:04:57]Then you go market. You won't go market to pension funds. You go market to hedge funds. You go market to retirement funds and start selling them because that insurance rapper the capital charge on these asset drops from like 30% to less than 1%. 30% risk less than 1% you know so basically you have a 30% risk but we've dialed it back to only less than 1% of the capital I mean this is not really a trade that's more of a magic trick and all these funds retirement funds pension funds they're the audience here so let's look at the real world example of what just happened the DOJ as The Department of Justice opened a grand jury investigation into Mark Walters's insurance empire, which includes Delaware Life. And guess what? After getting the subpoena, guess what they did? They did an internal review and suddenly found $16 billion in private credit tied to affiliates that they hadn't properly disclosed. 16 billion. I, you know, I found things in my couch cushions, too. But, uh, usually old Cheeto, not $16 billion.

[00:06:23]And that restatement meant that their related party investments jumped from 3% of their total invested assets to 39%.

[00:06:34]That's a big jump right there.

[00:06:37]That's 13 times higher. S&P immediately downgraded their outlook to negative, of course, and now the parent company says that their capital positioning is strong and their ratings are unchanged.

[00:06:50]But if they can lose track of $16 billion of exposure, what chance does your pension fund manager have for understanding what these guys have actually sold them and figuring it out? And that brings us to what I call the concentration bomb here. When one insurer wraps 50 different securities, think about that. 50 different securities wrapped up in one, 50 different buyers are relying on the exact same balance sheet.

[00:07:21]It's kind of an illusion of diversification. If that one insurer faces a downgrade, all 50 securities that they route get downgraded and that triggers force selling across the board.

[00:07:35]And these are not necessarily the most liquid assets on the planet. And we've kind of seen this movie before in 2008.

[00:07:43]It was those mortgage back securities.

[00:07:46]Remember that whole MBS, the great, you know, the big short, all that. Um, it was mortgages and they were packed up into C what's called CDOS's and they were wrapped up by AIG.

[00:08:03]Anybody remember AIG? Now, when the when the downgrades hit, AIG couldn't meet the collateral calls.

[00:08:10]It took $180 billion from the government just to kind of get the bleeding under control.

[00:08:18]Today, the sunprise market is about $1.3 trillion before it broke. the fund finance market. This private credit machine is already sitting between one and $1.75 trillion.

[00:08:36]So, we're not like getting close to being the same size risk that the mortgage back securities thing was.

[00:08:46]We're pretty much already in it, if not pushing above. They basically built the whole thing again. Just use different crap loans instead of subprime mortgage. I mean, you can't make this story up, right?

[00:09:04]Now, let's break down the investment angles here because there's always winners and there's always losers when a structural flaw gets exposed, which it's just a matter of time. So, if you're holding a broad financial sector like the XLF, you're in the blast radius. When the rapper market starts to fracture here, the the broad financial sector is going to feel this liquidity crunch. The insurers that are wrapping these loans are the first point of failure. If one of them gets downgraded, the force selling begins.

[00:09:38]And this is kind of what destroyed the markets you know the great financial crisis of 2008 20078.

[00:09:47]This is how it kind of happened was that you know the debt got or the insurer got downgraded and then people had to sell the instruments that they had bought that were mortgage back wrapped and then you couldn't sell them fast enough and that caused things like Lehman Brothers and and stuff to to blow out in Ron. So the money just wasn't there the next morning. It was there today, gone tomorrow. And um it's all about being able to market the securities that you have.

[00:10:19]So once forcelling begins, that's the problem. And the opacity here is the real killer. You can't easily see which insurer is wrapping which loan.

[00:10:30]There's no there's no clarity. There's no like you would think this was all regulated, but it's that's the thing.

[00:10:36]It's not. It's absolutely not. They They've created these almost voodoo instruments and then sold them to people that need yield.

[00:10:46]Life insurance companies, pension funds, retirement funds, which means the market will shoot first, sell it all, and then ask questions later. And that's what we see in any big correction. It's like dump everything, figure it out tomorrow, get back in later.

[00:11:04]Then we have regional banks. The KRE, this is where risk goes to goes to explode.

[00:11:15]Small regional banks. You they have massive exposure to private credit and business development companies or BDC's.

[00:11:22]We've seen BDC's rocking and rolling lately. They haven't moved on this rapper story yet, which means that the market either isn't paying attention or hoping it goes away or maybe it just hasn't sparked enough interest yet. So, this is potentially the opportunity. When the market is in denial, you position yourself for the wakeup call. If you're holding KRE, you need to understand that the underlying assets are tied to the same private credit machine that is currently being wrapped and hidden in these, you know, instruments of high yield.

[00:12:01]Be careful. Now, let's talk about the high yield, the HYG. High yield is the public market canary for private credit. If the HYG starts to crack, and that's a ticker you can look up, the Hotel Yankee Golf, it means the underlying loans in these private credit rappers are starting to go bad in a big way.

[00:12:22]The default rates in private credit are notoriously hard to track because we just amend and extend and brush it under the rug a little bit.

[00:12:36]But the public high yield market that trades every day. So watch HYG if it starts to widen the private credit bomb.

[00:12:48]The fuse may be lit right there. The it the clock may be ticking. The we may be on a countdown cycle. Now what about the companies actually building this machine? You what exposure do they have? Right. the private credit giants out there. And we're talking about companies that I've talked about before like Aries Capital, their ticker ARCC, Blackstone Secured Lending, BXSL.

[00:13:16]They're the ones that are actually originating the loans. And in a perfect world, they collect their fees and pass on the risk. But if the rapper market freezes up, their funding model takes a massive punch in the face. They rely on the ability to package and sell these loans. If the pension funds stop buying because the insurers get downgraded, guess what? It's a game of musical chairs and the music stopped and there's probably not even enough chairs.

[00:13:42]Finally, if you want a contrarian play, look at the safe havens, the TLT, uh the longterm treasuries right here.

[00:13:56]When the concentration bomb goes off and the force selling begins, capital is going to flee to the safest, most liquid assets on the planet, US treasuries.

[00:14:07]But there's another angle right here.

[00:14:10]The AI bubble, the credit bubble, and the AI bubble, they're they're not the same, but they aren't separate.

[00:14:21]They've got kind of the same leverage, kind of wearing different costumes, kind of different narratives. The massive infrastructure spending for AI, the data centers, the energy grid upgrades, the specialized chips, the partially funded, but this is exactly where it gets intertwined.

[00:14:41]It's partially funded by private credit.

[00:14:46]There's allegedly around $1.7 trillion dollars of offbooks credit extended to the hyperscalers right now that dwarfs the 1.3 trillion that they claim on their books.

[00:15:06]This is in addition to if the credit rappers unwind, the funding chain for the tech sector breaks down too. So if you're are holding on to Nvidia or Caterpillar, you need to understand this risk that's sitting out here.

[00:15:25]The inmarket demand is supported by the very credit markets that are playing games with insurance rappers.

[00:15:32]This is a systemic risk for the whole thing blowing out. It's kind of the same exact risk that took the housing market down. We weren't in a housing bubble either until we were.

[00:15:44]So, this is the reality of the market right now.

[00:15:47]They're assembling the mother of all crashes in the background. They're doing it right in front of us, buried in 50page perspectuses and insurance balance sheets.

[00:15:58]And when it blows, they're going to everybody's going to say, "Nobody can see it coming." So maybe bookmark this video right here.

[00:16:09]You know, anybody that remembered Subprime, they can see it coming. I can see it coming. I I've seen it coming for a while. They're building the exact same stuff they did years ago.

[00:16:23]I mean, you just have to do a little basic math here and pay attention to what they say.

[00:16:30]Wall Street loves to invent new names for old mistakes.

[00:16:34]They call it fund finance or alternative credit or but the mechanics are exactly the same. You take something risky. You put a wrapper on it. You get somebody to rate it. Bless it. Oh, it's safe. It's good. It's, you know, don't worry about don't don't dig into the what's actually underneath. And then you sell it to somebody that doesn't care. They're just hunting for yield. Or maybe they maybe sell it to somebody you don't explain it to. So, what do you do here? You don't panic. You prepare. You look at the portfolio and you ask the hard questions here. Are you holding broad financials without understanding the underlying exposure? Are you holding high yield ETFs thinking that they're safe right now? Are you invested in tech infrastructure without realizing the credit risk that funds it? Are you invested in BDC's? Are you do you have exposure to private credit? This is why I do the work I do. This is why I read the boring reports and dig through stuff that everybody else doesn't because CNBC is not going to break this news first. They're going to be the ones chasing it. So all this information is in the footnotes of these reports.

[00:17:50]So be careful out there. All right.

[00:17:54]Do your homework. Quick audit. Does your 401k pension 401k or pension hold alternative credit or structured credit type positions? If you don't know, well, that's the point, you know, go check it out.

[00:18:11]So, let stay cynical out there. Be careful. Let's go check out some charts.

[00:18:15]See if we can see if we can dig in and find something to trade today. Some opportunity.

[00:18:22]What do you say?

[00:18:25]Pull that over.

[00:18:29]Jump over here. All trading involves a substantial risk of loss of past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This presentation intended to beformational educational fund entertaining. Not a recommendation to be buying or selling any financial instrument including stocks, options, bonds, forex, futures, cryptos, treasuries. Be careful out there. 95% of traders lose money. I sometimes get lucky. I make big bold predictions. I, you know, I can see this coming.

[00:18:53]We'll see what happens. Same same song, different lyrics, same music, I guess you might say.

[00:19:02]Looking over at the S&P 500, getting a little bit of reprieve maybe. But here we are starting starting to take it back here, right? As we try to come in the open. Yesterday we rallied up. Let's turn this indicator off. tried to break back through.

[00:19:27]Tried to break back through that downtrend.

[00:19:33]Popped up and then quickly rejected back down. We closed down here. So, this is a gap up overnight, but we're selling it right back down.

[00:19:46]That didn't look so good. Look at the overnight history here.

[00:19:50]See what the market did overnight.

[00:19:54]Well, got a little bounce, but not exactly the sparkiest looking thing here. We weren't making any kind of higher highs. We're making lower highs.

[00:20:06]And it won't surprise me if we take this on down.

[00:20:12]Could it rally up? Could, but it won't surprise me if we take it on down.

[00:20:17]Looking at a NASDAQ. Well, Still looking pretty sad here.

[00:20:25]Overnight, we rallied up off the lows yesterday.

[00:20:31]Now, here's the big low from Friday.

[00:20:33]Three-wave up, three-wave down.

[00:20:37]So, this is kind of looking like we're working on an A C type move.

[00:20:50]This could extend up just a little bit further back in this 295 zone.

[00:21:01]And that's for the futures, not for anything else. Not for the cash index.

[00:21:07]But we did this right over here. And I warned when we broke down, this was likely to get more downside.

[00:21:15]as long as we stay kind of there's immediate downside as long as we stay under this low right here.

[00:21:25]But even if we rally up and overlap it, there's still potential that that that this was complete. This is the retrace and then we're just opening the door for a bigger move.

[00:21:42]We extended this down to the point where that could have been finished.

[00:21:49]So look at this right here from the high to the low of this move. That's in that same vicinity right there. That 618 same vicinity has the proportion proportions of ABC.

[00:22:02]That sets up a potential one two because of how deep this went.

[00:22:10]and the three would be down.

[00:22:14]Stacking up the potential here.

[00:22:18]Jumping up a time frame here so we could extend this just a little bit bigger, deeper.

[00:22:26]This first move down this retrace potentially up to that 90 295 area. The next move would set us up for that move right there. Anybody remember what the ping zone is?

[00:22:47]It's the daily road map line right down there. So, this bounce that we're doing right now could set us up for that potential.

[00:23:04]Not going to be quick necessarily, although it could be pretty quick.

[00:23:08]So be careful. This is all set up from the June top over here. So the June initial drop, we need to go lower low than that initial June drop. We've been working on it.

[00:23:25]Now we have another potential. Working on it with a fun finality potential setup here. So this correction could take us a bit lower. Be careful. There's no has to do it by any particular time.

[00:23:43]Looking back over at ES at this point, you be like, "Wow, you got a lot of fibs stacked on there." Let's just remove a few and clearing it up a little bit and see where what we got cooking here.

[00:23:56]Jump back up just a little bit so we can see. We've kind of got the same situation going on. went down, came back up, went down, came back up, and this whole thing is going to look best with a nice big flush down below that early June low.

[00:24:19]Does it have to happen? No, it doesn't have to happen. But this is where the red zone is for ES right here. It's just in the charts.

[00:24:32]Not saying it has to happen, but this little correction right here sure does eerily, you know, seem eerily similar to the way we kind of did this chop over here and then rolled over with a flush that finally went lower low.

[00:24:48]It's kind of like what we're doing again. And if we keep doing it on the same timeline, this could stretch out potentially into September, October.

[00:24:59]And we just keep chopping in here and then finally do a a flush over here.

[00:25:09]Painful sideways grind.

[00:25:12]Russell here keeps holding on to the potential to break higher.

[00:25:20]Hold on to that breakout.

[00:25:24]Long as we keep above there upside potential.

[00:25:32]So just keep holding on to it. [snorts] Hold on. Hold on. Hold on.

[00:25:43]Oil. Lookie lookie.

[00:25:47]Reaching up. This is remember I've talked about this for a couple days.

[00:25:51]This is the bullish tell. If we get up to this level, do any kind of retrace that holds the road map line here.

[00:26:00]What's the road map line? It's a set of EMAs that are based off of Fibonacci numbers and it provides support resistance.

[00:26:12]We come down and hold support, turn back higher, break back above the high right here.

[00:26:20]So assuming we go on up and hit it, come down, retest, break back up through the target is probably 150 to 250.

[00:26:36]150 if we're lucky, 250 if it gets really aggressive to the upside.

[00:26:43]We're creating a shortage of oil right now. Our strategic petroleum reserve in the United States is almost empty. We've got about 45 days of supply. Tank bottoms are near and Cushing. There's a lot of systemic risks here. And it's all stemmed from what happened back at the beginning.

[00:27:00]It's finally trickling through. It's taken months of this to actually trickle through and cause a real problem, a real supply shortage.

[00:27:15]Gold still churning in here. I still expect this to dip on one more lower low. Just consolidating in here. Almost got it.

[00:27:24]That's the low we're contending with right back there from June.

[00:27:28]One more push down in the, you know, 37 to 39 area.

[00:27:35]Somewhere in here would be the ideal spot.

[00:27:42]One more good dip. We finish this up.

[00:27:45]It's possible this was it right over here. But and I started adding some gold exposure just in case it doesn't do the final little move. But you know, this is what I expect to clean up the chart because this is this is sloppy right here. This is not the kind of stuff that reversals are built off of. We need one more sharp little drop, bum everybody out, and then everybody jumps back in the pool.

[00:28:13]Bitcoin rallying up to the last high. This will probably suck. This is probably the suck in right here. This is the bull trap more than likely.

[00:28:22]I'm thinking everybody thinks we're all clear.

[00:28:26]Getting back in the pool.

[00:28:28]Probably going to rally up maybe in this vicinity right here around 70,000 and then take another swift downside move lower than that. Probably down in the 30 to 50k zone.

[00:28:45]I think it'll dip below 50. 40 kind of the most ideal. 30 if we get really aggressive to the downside.

[00:28:53]If we dip in that zone, even if it's just 499, that's still in the zone. And then we take off.

[00:29:09]So, be careful. I did start adding some IBIT puts to maybe start accumulating again.

[00:29:20]This one probably needs a big flush out too. And think about it from the from Bitcoin 70,000 potential target up here.

[00:29:31]If we go tag 70K and then we dip out to 35K, that's cut in half.

[00:29:43]There could still be a 50% downside here risk. Be careful.

[00:29:54]Ether could see a 50% downside risk, too. Kind of needs to go lower low than this low we did back in 2022.

[00:30:03]Bitcoin is not the same chart at all.

[00:30:07]dollar despite all the dollar's weak narrative that's been going around trying to break out of this downtrend of highs.

[00:30:16]If we actually do it, this thing can get really sparky to the upside here.

[00:30:23]Looking for near-term targets right here. Bigger term targets up around 110, 109, 110.

[00:30:33]And longer term targets maybe a few years from now.

[00:30:37]120 to 130.

[00:30:44]Watch the break right here. Back up back up through 10125.

[00:30:48]Probably going to kick it up into 102 10250 area. ENKD getting a little bit of reprieve.

[00:30:59]Warren Buffett made a giant bond purchase.

[00:31:06]Think about this. Warren Buffett made a giant bond purchase. Bonds typically perform when the stock market goes down. It was a Japanese bond purchase.

[00:31:20]Large Japanese bond purchase.

[00:31:25]If the Nike falls, it's our indication of global liquidity and it usually takes the US markets down with it.

[00:31:36]Be careful. The warning signs are laying out here.

[00:31:39]Apple topped out. Watch for the retrace.

[00:31:42]It can come all the way back down to the road mapap line.

[00:31:45]There's no high probability path.

[00:31:47]Otherwise, Amazon has not been able to break through the 618 and set up the upside.

[00:31:53]If this was the first move down, the retrace, the next move down can be right down in here around 200.

[00:31:59]Google looks like we're going for the Here was the first move down. Here was the retrace. Pull that B over right there.

[00:32:07]Save it. And we're probably going down for a touch around 300.

[00:32:13]Meta has not been able to confirm.

[00:32:17]It's kind of stuck in no man's land here and we dip back below the downtrend of highs.

[00:32:23]Held on to the daily roadmap line, but if this cracks more, we're probably going to see it push down lower low than the tariff liberation day low.

[00:32:35]Microsoft has the potential cooking here to possibly rally back up to the road map line here and then take another swift turn down.

[00:32:50]Go lower low then the tariff liberation day low back over there behind my head.

[00:32:58]Coming up at 5:00 PM today, I'll do 30 minutes of requests um at least. So, if you've got a chart that you would prefer me to look at or you know, you're like, "Oh man, JT never covers the stuff I'm invested in." Come hang out at 5:00 p.m.

[00:33:12]Eastern. I'll do a live stream and take requests for at least 30 minutes.

[00:33:17]Usually, it's an hour, hour and a half.

[00:33:18]So, come hang out. We do a channel member only live stream, ask me anything after the end. So, come visit.

[00:33:29]Nvidia right here. The resistance for going higher is right up here at the 618.

[00:33:34]We're hanging out and has potential to dip on down.

[00:33:40]There's support right down here where we made these lows earlier in the year. And if we get through that, we'll probably go visit the 20 24 highs that we have not revisited yet down around 150.

[00:33:54]And that's kind of the outlook for Nvidia. Now, if we could break through this resistance, 244 possible on the upside. Tesla was looking pretty ugly yesterday.

[00:34:07]We did not actually go lower low yet. We kind of tied it, but we didn't really go push lower low in a big way. Didn't get down to the bottom of the channel. So, this is still sitting out there as a potential bottom of the channel down around 355 360. If we can hold on to that, push back higher, get up through this freaking high we made right here at the beginning, just the beginning of July, not even [clears throat] that long ago. Get back through that. We're setting the upside potential. 550 to 600.

[00:34:44]Oh, I guess it's 500 to 500 is the Man, we didn't get very high.

[00:34:51]That's just right there. Extensions 550 and 600.

[00:34:57]This would be the kind of typical target and this would be the Oh yeah, that worked out really well. Target Netflix trying it as darnest to establish a bottom here, but it may need to dip one more time down in here.

[00:35:18]Now, we do have earnings coming up on Tesla on tomorrow and we do have earnings on Google coming up tomorrow.

[00:35:30]So, tomorrow after the close, both of those reporting earnings.

[00:35:33]Be careful out there. SpaceX confirming that it's actually August 4th, not August 6th, that they will be reporting earnings.

[00:35:44]And this is probably going to cruise right on down 50% below the IPO price.

[00:35:56]So I go pull gainers. Things moving up $2 more in the pre-market. Things moving down $2 more in the pre-market. Put them on the put the gainers on the gainers list. The decliners on the decliners list and try to hunt for opportunities.

[00:36:10]SanDisk probably gunning for the road map line and this ASML probably gone in for the road map line. MU, we're getting a nice bounce today, but I'd be very careful.

[00:36:27]I don't know that it sticks. You know, we could stick it for the day, but all you know, momentum is the first one I've seen that actually looks like it could be bouncing here. So, we get the close back above that 8.94 area set for 1165 on the next rally.

[00:36:43]WDC potential downside. AMAT potential downside. G Veronova potential upside.

[00:36:49]We came shy of the 1200 target. SOXX potential downside to the road map line.

[00:36:56]TER potential bounce in place. There's your high. There's your low. Back through the 401 and 518. AMD, watch out.

[00:37:11]This could use a retrace.

[00:37:18]Could it just go ripping off? Maybe.

[00:37:20]We're in the We're right in the middle of my targets.

[00:37:24]The lofty goal of 700.

[00:37:28]I don't know that we're going to hit that without revisiting a lower level.

[00:37:32]COR.

[00:37:33]Got the bounce. Got the retrace.

[00:37:37]There's the high. There's the low.

[00:37:39]Looking for that close back above that 360 area for 466 498 on the upside.

[00:37:46]NVMI hasn't confirmed any kind of bounce yet.

[00:37:52]Still closing below the road map line.

[00:37:55]Be careful we can bounce up through that 535 area 655 on the upside. SMH probably coming down to the road map line. ALAB probably coming back down the road map line. SO XL already potentially hitting here.

[00:38:12]Hello. This a 2x or 3x leverage on semiconductors. So be careful.

[00:38:19]LRCX probably keep on chooching down chugging on down.

[00:38:26]Caterpillar.

[00:38:27]All these charts kind of look the don't they? So, watch out for the rest of that retrace.

[00:38:36]We're just like, was it close enough? Probably not.

[00:38:41]Probably. You got to be a little bit cynical here. Like, close doesn't count.

[00:38:45]We'll probably get the final flush. But we I mean, like on to right here. Did this right here. Close enough. And then rallied down higher. Close enough again.

[00:38:54]Rally on higher. Is this one close enough or are we going to push it on down? So, everything looks like it needs to push on down. So, maybe we don't. But, and ARM, I warned that uh we'd get come on down to the road map line. We're so close. We just need to finish that up.

[00:39:15]NBIS actually hit.

[00:39:20]Got this high. We got that low. We need the close back about 240 to indicate 327 on the target. Bloom Energy is it a go? Saw some people add an exposure yesterday. Be careful. It doesn't have to do anything here.

[00:39:39]Doesn't have to stop at the road map line even though it's been there for 4 days now. A close back above this 280 would put it up would set it up for 382.

[00:39:50]Get the right word in my mouth. Lant that's a 2x on Intel. Be careful. CRDO almost hit almost doesn't count. We need it to actually touch.

[00:40:06]That would be the So any of them that missed they're going to be a lower time frame bounce.

[00:40:12]So that's the whole deal. Like even for like Caterpillar, it hit the 4 hour.

[00:40:19]Like well it seems like it found support here. Yeah, it did.

[00:40:23]on the 4 hour chart.

[00:40:26]If that holds up, we can go higher again. But if it doesn't hold up, come on down to the daily chart.

[00:40:34]And all these are kind of that way. Not AMD didn't hit the 4 hour.

[00:40:39]That one went on through. So, some of these ones that have come up short like WDC hitting the 4 hour, STX hitting the 4 hour, ASML not hitting, SNDK finding a little support, but that daily chart on down just a little bit more.

[00:41:03]That's why multi multiple time frame analysis can work.

[00:41:10]BRT went for a lower low.

[00:41:14]Fully hit the road map line. If we can get back through this resistance up here, cruising on up 392 TXN probably needs some more downside.

[00:41:29]GLW, look at that beautiful hit right there. Boom. Shaka Laka.

[00:41:34]There's your high. There's your low back. That's It's kind of crazy. You're like, "Woo, that's a long way up there."

[00:41:41]Got to go back up through that 618 resistance to get the upside continuation trend pullback continuation trades.

[00:41:55]Now, the caveat here on all these is that if the market doesn't turn back into a trend, I'm not sure all of these can turn back into a trend.

[00:42:07]So there's definitely a high degree of caution.

[00:42:13]It's the same chart over and over just shy of the road map line.

[00:42:18]AGQ trying to turn the bottom here. If gold and silver bounce, EWY, that's an interesting one right there cuz we saw the Cosby down quite a bit yesterday, but this didn't really reflect that.

[00:42:45]Cosby composite like why do you care about South Korea? because there's a lot of leverage going on. There's liquidations happening because of this pullback.

[00:42:55]If this thing gets worse, I mean, look at this. We already dropped from 9,000 to 6,000.

[00:43:04]It's like a 30% pullback. We're finding support here at the road map line, but if this gets worse, it could get really ugly really fast here.

[00:43:16]Look how high that thing went.

[00:43:22]We'll cut that down from 9,000 to 3,000. Lose 60%.

[00:43:30]Another 50% from where we are.

[00:43:35]Let's be careful.

[00:43:37]K. Are you looking pretty gnarly? This may take a bigger bath here.

[00:43:44]This thing's been one of the best performers for a while, for a year. I mean, the last bounce held the road mapap line and took off. Beautiful.

[00:43:54]But then it made this head and shoulders pattern and that's already played out pretty much.

[00:44:00]But if this breaks on down, we could see this down in the single digits pretty quickly.

[00:44:10]And Shante Gold coming up on the list here.

[00:44:16]Due to the pricing, I like Beric mining better. I mean, I got put some shares. I mean, selling more puts, trying to get more shares.

[00:44:27]This is potentially done on the downside. It made the lower low.

[00:44:30]Ideally, it could go just a bit lower, but I like it. Ashante higher price, but it could also be done. In higher price, but could also be done.

[00:44:42]So, The gold miners typically bottom before gold actually does. So don't get it too confused that they all have to bottom in sync. We can see these all start moving higher before gold makes it final bounce push lower and bounce. MCI ouch to break higher. That's kind of what you get with the chop like DHR.

[00:45:12]Oh man, another nasty one.

[00:45:16]Where's the bottom?

[00:45:19]Big question.

[00:45:22]Smith down the retrace and we could push on down to 150 and I'll see take another hit lower. Obviously, the correction is not done there. TMO back to the road map one. That's a three-wave up. Be careful. Trend pullback continuation could be lower. EFX, be careful. That's potentially going lower.

[00:45:49]Cracker Barrel announcing they're closing all their Maple Street biscuit stores. The rest of them, I guess that experiment's done.

[00:46:03]has this move up off the low three-wave retrace potential 618. We get another retrace here back to the road map line.

[00:46:11]This could set up for bigger upside potential.

[00:46:15]Want to crack a barrel.

[00:46:33]What did this do? Split. Is that regular split? 11 for five. I don't even know.

[00:46:40]What a weird ratio.

[00:46:52]That's a downtrend all day long.

[00:46:55]software. Still hunting for bottom, Adobe, Workday, list goes on. Salesforce, Shopify, Data Dog, Allegent Technologies, basically just doing nothing, sitting sideways.

[00:47:19]Alex looks pretty bad going down.

[00:47:24]Let's go look at some setups here.

[00:47:27]These are trend pullback continuation setups that potentially have entries today. We're going to check them out.

[00:47:35]See if they actually do have entries.

[00:47:36]That one right there. There's the high.

[00:47:39]There's the low. We're looking for that coals back above the 94 area. So, not technically an entry yet. JD, if you know about Teimu, no, that's PDD.

[00:47:56]JD.com, China retailer.

[00:48:00]There's your high. There's your low.

[00:48:02]There's your entry. 30 36 target. Stop dollar below the low down at 23 LPG.

[00:48:12]Nice trend. Nice. This is actually really nice bigger picture. This one has a potential to come on up to 59.

[00:48:20]Just looking at this small bounce that we just did. Trend up three-wave retrace. Beautiful proportions.

[00:48:30]Close above. Continuation 50 52 58. So you may be able to get that 59 possibly even 67 on the bigger bounce.

[00:48:44]TD TNDM.

[00:48:49]I don't know. This looks like a downtrend to me. Be careful here. That bigger high, bigger low. What it picked up for the entry right here is this high and this low because this price action was under the road map line. It's picking that up with a 2187 target, which is just the 21 right into that 618 resistance for the bigger potential. I'm not so keen on that pattern. Uh, and 2x short on Tesla and 2x short on Tesla. I would skip those.

[00:49:21]I would not chase either of those trades.

[00:49:25]All right, let's go look at spying QQQ and see if there's anything that we might glean out of the option markets.

[00:49:34]What do you say? Jump down to the five-minute charts. There was the prediction yesterday. We've held in there pretty well and then dove took a dip off into the close, but we didn't go lower low.

[00:49:50]So, let's see today what the options market is going to say might happen.

[00:49:58]Pull this over.

[00:50:00]Click save.

[00:50:04]see what gam exposure and the the options levels are going to tell us about what might transcend the markets today and we're starting out with a fair bubble.

[00:50:21]It's like where's the big level though?

[00:50:24]Usually there's a blue one. Oh, there it is. How at the end of the month? $615 million.

[00:50:32]It's not even a billion dollar level.

[00:50:34]We'll see. We got 300, 300, 300, 250, 200, 150.

[00:50:41]We got some fair levels in here. I'm going to go with the 739 on the downside here. No. Uh 738, 115 million.

[00:50:50]So 738 on the downside and 751 on the upside.

[00:50:56]That'll be the range that I expect it to hold in today. So 751 738 a little tighter than yesterday's range. Not by much.

[00:51:08]There's not really a lot of options played out to tomorrow, but looking at what is out there kind of indicates that it might go lower. Be careful.

[00:51:17]It's uh into Friday there. Might see a little bit of downside pressure in the market.

[00:51:25]matches all the things I've said, but this is just looking at it a completely independent way. Now, we do have these up here, but these down here are bigger than these up here. So, that tips the odds. We may see some downside. Now, the green means that the market makers are hedging opposite the direction of the market. So, if we push higher, they're selling. And this is a muting effect. If we drop, they're buying. That's a muting effect. We get down in the red, then the market makers are hedging in the same direction. So if we get down to the red and the market drops, they're still selling to hedge. And if it rallies, they're buying. So that creates more volatility. It kind of fits with the whole market narrative, too. Like when we're dropping, things are more volatile. When we're popping, things are more muted. So looking at the levels, dialing into just today looks really organized here. That's kind of crazy. So, all things being equal, we'll probably hang out right around 7:45.

[00:52:26]Balance the puts, balance the calls, maybe push down slightly. Since the calls are slightly bigger, we could see 744.

[00:52:39]I'm going to go with 745.

[00:52:43]745, all things being equal, and that's just as [clears throat] of right now.

[00:52:47]This can change drastically between now and the end of the day, but without any kind of anything happening today, we may just park it right in there.

[00:53:00]Doesn't have to go anywhere. Now, throughout the day, we can go and then end up back at that 745 level.

[00:53:09]But as we move around, more options come into play and it changes the dynamic.

[00:53:14]So, it's a whole dynamic situation. is not a static guess.

[00:53:20]Look at the cues which have been pretty devoid of any kind of gamma bubble or any kind of big option flow for months it seems like. Now put this out tomorrow this over.

[00:53:40]And tech has been one of the most hated sectors I think right now for a little while. QQ.

[00:53:51]Jump back to the heat map. Load her up.

[00:53:57]Come on, baby. Come on, baby. You can do it. No qualifying contracts. Are you kidding me right now?

[00:54:13]Really?

[00:54:15]An outage on Q? That's pretty cool.

[00:54:25]There we go.

[00:54:27]Hey, look at that 300 million level.

[00:54:31]That's the most bubbly gamma bubble I've seen. Even though 300 million and then no other level even above 100 million. That's not what I want to see.

[00:54:53]So, I'm going to go with 701 710, but I'm not sure I believe it much.

[00:55:07]Not sure I believe that.

[00:55:09]I'm thinking we have potential to break down out of this pretty nastily. I mean, look at these big levels down here for Friday all the way down to 680.

[00:55:23]Those levels are all bigger than all the levels for today except for the 705.

[00:55:34]Let's dial this into today.

[00:55:36]That's a nasty looking gamma chart. There's why the 705 is being so crazy. If we look at that, all those call levels bigger. So, we take this down and screw the call orders, we'll be down at 700 be my guess.

[00:55:54]And that's kind of crazy. The my guess is below the bottom of the the box.

[00:56:00]Doesn't usually happen, but So, the gamma on the cues is really weird.

[00:56:13]is what I would say.

[00:56:17]Let's check out a couple other heat maps here.

[00:56:30]200 million.

[00:56:32]Usually NAS NASDAQ futures or NASDAQ index options have billion dollar levels.

[00:56:40]There's barely anything over 100 million. That's really odd.

[00:56:49]Compare and contrast that to S&P levels.

[00:56:55]Look at that. 1.4 1.1 another billion.

[00:57:00]Like there's a lot of billions of dollars floating around here, but not on you got 500 million, 500 million, 500 million, 500 million, 5, 700 million.

[00:57:11]Wonder where the big level is.

[00:57:16]There it is. 2 billion for the end of the month. Up just a little bit.

[00:57:26]But this has less influence over the price than spy. So don't think that just because this one has this nice rosy kind of looking outlook that it would have more influence over the spy spy.

[00:57:40]The market just loves to take retailers money. Retail plays in SPY. Retail plays in QQQ. And that's why I watch the two of them. The market loves to go take retailer money. They hedge with the index options.

[00:57:55]So be careful out there today. This can take it right back down in a blaze of glory.

[00:58:03]Remember, 5:00 p.m. this afternoon, I'll be back. Same bat time, same bat channel as always, every Tuesday. Been doing 30 minutes of awesome for almost five years. That'll be five years in October.

[00:58:14]So, come hang out. I'll see you later.

[00:58:16]Bye for now. Be careful out there.