This video explains how HPC (High Performance Computing) infrastructure deals significantly impact mining company valuations, using Dell's record earnings and Hut 8's $62 price target as examples. The analysis demonstrates that companies like Keel Infrastructure, which have not yet signed HPC deals but have management confidence in securing three deals by end of 2026, can see substantial share price appreciation (516% increase) based on forward-looking deal expectations. The sensitivity analysis shows that deal parameters including megawatts, revenue per megawatt ($2M), EBITDA margins (70%), and capex ($10M/megawatt) directly influence share price targets, with labor cost increases potentially reducing value by $0.50 per share.
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KEEL Deal Analysis & Targets | DELL & FUFU Earnings | Top HUT News | AI Stocks to Watch in 2026Added:
Hey guys, welcome or welcome back to the channel McNal Money, the official home of power analysis, the final podcast of the week, and it's going to be a big one for you. Crunching the numbers on Keel Infrastructure, taking a look at Anony's sensitivity analysis in terms of what a deal could mean for this company's share price. In addition to that, we have earnings out from Fufu, a price target update at HUD 8, and a number of big headlines in the AIHPC space, including blockbuster earnings from Dell. A lot to talk about. Before we get into it, take a second, smash the like button, guys.
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With that being said, let's get into today's episode.
All right, guys. Away we go. Friday afternoon, final podcast of the week. We just got off an earnings interview with Charlie Brady, the VP of investor relations from Bit Fufu. Encourage you guys to take a look at that. The focus of this podcast though going to be all around valuations, uh, valuation analysis and potential price targets.
Yesterday we ran through some of the data on Riot. A lot of great feedback there. Anthony, you followed that up today with a deep dive look into KE infrastructure along with some top headlines out from HUD 8, our friends over at Dell, and of course, Bit Fufu earnings. Before we get into it, Bitcoin price on the one day getting a bit of steam here, but over the fiveday period, still nothing to write home about.
>> Yeah. Um, yes, bit of if you look at the one day chart, you can just see there's a bit of volatility there. It touched 72 and a half,000, then went back up to 74 and it's hovering now just under 74,000.
So, um, yeah, not not a great not a great um, end to the week. We're hoping for more. Um, down 4% on the last 5day chart. Um, we'll probably have to wait now predominantly now till Sunday evening till Asia comes on. that normally gives us an indication of where Bitcoin is going next week. Um but uh yeah, not great for the not great for miners. We'd like to see it higher because no matter how much we talk about HPC, all these companies we talk about are still mining as well. They're still got lots of hash rate out there. Even the likes of um Iron, you know, uh they've still got over 30 exahash of machines mining for them. So they want as much production as they can get that contribution coming in. So when they physically switch off the mining and then focus on HBC, they got an automatic revenue stream coming through, they they can manage this in a way. And other companies are doing exactly the same.
Ben is doing the same at Keel. They they've still got about 10 11 um Exahash. They're going to mine that um out predominantly for the rest of this year. And then when a deal's signed, they'll switch across uh power when it's energized and the buildings are ready to HPC. But it gives them an interim period where they can start bringing in a little bit of contribution towards some of these major costs that they're going to incur with the new strategy.
>> You just mentioned Iron. We talked about this photo on the podcast yesterday. Dan and his new friends here, obviously the CEO of Nvidia and Michael Dell himself, CEO, founder of Dell. Dell came out with earnings last night, Anthony, and I got to say this was blockbuster. Stock market really rewarding them today, up in excess of 30% during trading. I read last night, Michael Dell, I think, owns 40% of the company himself. So phenomenal day for him personally and professionally. But we wanted to double click on the actual numbers here because this again similar to Nvidia. Very telling of what's to come for the companies we talk about on a regular basis. I'll let you walk through some of the topline numbers. Then we've got a little feature on the actual server racks and the infrastructure that they're selling to companies like Iron for example.
Yeah, a lot of people on social media are saying we're in a bit of a bubble and maybe it's going to burst soon and all come back down to earth. But um when you look at the earnings for Dell Technologies, you need to, you know, to to look at that statement again because record revenues just under $44 billion for the quarter. That's 88% up year onear. Um EPS earnings per share $524 up 282% yearonear and record non-GAAP diluted EPS of 486 which is over 214% yearonear cash flow from operations 4.1 billion so again another record um this company uh are in a different um sphere compared to the ones we talk about on a regular basis but some of the companies we talk about on a regular basis could end up moving into this same sort of category But it'll take a while. Remember yesterday we talked about the updates from Iron, that $1.6 billion deal with Dell to bring in more GPUs uh to the children's site. That's going to take their uh revenues to about 4.4 uh billion annualized revenues. That's not quarterly, that's annualized revenue.
That's just a shy over 1.1 billion per quarter. we're talking about here a company that's bringing in 43 44 times as much in a quarter. So there's a long way to go for for these companies, but they can grow because they've got the power. Remember how much power iron have used towards um HPC at the moment.
And I think they've got about 440 megawatt allocated to HPC that will be driving HPC like when the Microsoft deal is energized there and and the and the the the GPUs that they're buying for children and for British Columbia uh that represents less than 10% of their whole power. So if they're able to um put all their energized power into HPC then we start talking about uh you know different category of numbers for iron and likewise for those other miners are in there. But just going back to to Dell there that record cash flow there um yearon year now is is 12.5 uh billion adjusted free cash flow of 3.2 2 billion that's up 42% and they were able to return 2.1 billion to shares in Q1 um in in the form of um dividends and share repurchases.
So uh you know uh that's just you know it's it's you know when you're making significant revenues and making significant profits you've got far more leaves. What you can do they've actually spent 1.6 6 billion in buying their own shares back, reducing the share uh share count and also issuing half a billion dollars in dividends to shareholders.
That's what we want to see. A lot of people have said in the mining space, would the miners ever issue dividends?
And a couple of them said they would do, but you know, um none have issued any dividends to shareholders, to the retail shareholders. Some have issued dividends themselves. Uh we know that from Clean Spot. They've been issuing dividends up until this last quarter where they changed the the decision on that and actually paid themselves out $30 million million to avoid paying any more dividends which was probably a good deal for them. Uh cash and investments for Dell 14.1 billion. Um again it's just um it's just an amazing strength of the balance sheet that they've got there and the AI infrastructure buildout is flowing directly into Dell's P&L. Um, every iron hut core scientific terowolf day center order is a Dell revenue event. Bryce, >> yeah, and we wanted to double click on that. We've got a couple of questions recently. How does Dell fit into the equation here? Obviously, Nvidia's making the GPUs. Why does IN for example have this partnership with Dell? Now, if you take a look in the updated investor presentation, you can see these Dell power racks. So they essentially build the racks, the networking, the infrastructure, cabling for compute, the storage. You can see an interesting fact on here. 6 hours from delivery to deployment. So as these data centers are being built, the GPUs need racks to be plugged into. Dell is really that intermediary or the glue that holds it all together. You can see they're now the number one rack scale infrastructure provider. over two times the number of rack scale servers shipped than the closest competitor. So I saw a couple of analyst reports on Dell. They said, "Hey, we've been following this company literally for decades. We've never seen anything like this AI demand, the backlog they're seeing similar to what we're hearing on the uh engineering side of things as well." Anthony, anything related to these data centers and the construction or the inputs uh really receiving a lot of attention right now?
Yeah, absolutely. Behemoth of a company um and you know in the right space uh where this technology is just going to uh you know to drive uh revenues, margins uh profits um higher and higher as as we as we see more and more people you know start to use it on a more regular basis. There's hundreds of millions of people out there that are using it. There's probably hundreds of millions of people that have signed up contracts um to use it. you've you've signed up a contract there. I've got a an annual contract as well with with my AI provider. Uh it's becoming more and more the norm. You know, you've got your your apps in terms of like, you know, you might have a Netflix contract or a or an Amazon Prime contract. Uh people can have these contracts for AI as well because of the the sheer efficiency of what it's delivering there. and that money will flow back into these companies um and just you know enable them to grow even quicker.
>> Now I just mentioned Michael Dell has a large uh percentage of his personal net worth in Dell as well. He's now in the top 10 in terms of overall net worth individuals worldwide. We just saw him in a picture with the co-CEO of Iron. So obviously those two rubbing shoulders in the right realm. We move over to the heat map here again. a bit of a mixed day. We talk about Fridays as option expiration. I've been trading a few options myself. We've been documenting all of our trades, not only on the Power Play members channel here on YouTube, but also on each one of our individual Patreons. So, make sure you guys check that out. But today itself, Anthony, similar to yesterday, a bit of a mixed bag. We'll talk about Keel, we'll talk about Bit Fufu, uh, but really no rhyme or reason to today's trading.
>> No. And to be honest with you, it's actually improved as the days gone on because when um pre-market finished and the markets opened, all these stocks were in the red uh quite significantly.
And as the days progressed, we started to see more and more start turning to green. And some of the some of the shares that were in the red have reduced their percentages. At one point, uh Fufu was down about 14 15% and we'll talk about potential reasons for that. In fact, in in overnight trading, Fufu was up 15 or 16% and then it dropped to minus 14 or 15% in in early uh pre-market. And you can see now it's steadied now and around about 5.2% down at the time of the podcast, but you look at the day range there and a lot of these stocks are looking better than they were um at the start of the day. So um you know that's that's a a benefit there. I don't think my portfolio is down too much now. It was down probably probably maybe close to 5% at one point today, but it's probably in the realms now of about 1% down. So, I'll take that for the end of the week. We've had a great week. In fact, if you think where we were when markets opened in the US on Tuesday, we had like a long longer weekend for some of these stocks. A three-day period with Memorial Day happening on Monday. Uh the last four days overall have been extremely good.
We've both made a few sales. Um took some profits. Um and it doesn't hurt to take a profit when share prices are rallying this much. I mean some of these stocks as we come to the heat map uh you can see quite clearly uh over that month change there. There was a number of stocks uh very close to 100% up in the last month. You know why wouldn't you be considering to take an element of profit at that point there. Um year-to- date changes. There's probably half a dozen stocks on there that are three digits from the year to date as well. So this tells you it's been a great year. And if you go a little bit further, go back to the year, there's six stocks there with an average of probably about 550%.
And one key note there, we can see KE, we'll talk a little bit more about this in a second, they've joined the 500% club because their share price at 579 as the podcast came out is 516% higher than it was a year ago. And remember, they went through that process. They were being courted by Riot uh platforms. right, could see the benefits and the and the value in in KE.
Uh the share price was was fairly low.
It was lower than $2 and they went in there uh started to buy I think about you know nearly 20% of the company. Um and there was a lot of um obviously angst from the keel or the bit farm shares at the time there. Um you know didn't really want that deal to go ahead and so in the end uh you know um it effectively right started to sell it its position. I believe they still have a small position in KE. I've seen some updates on social media suggesting they've got maybe 3 or 4% left in the company and if they have um it's been a benefit because their shares that they originally bought um had to sell you know a loss. Now they may have recovered some of that losses with the fact that the share price now is over $5 nearly edging towards $6. So um there's a bit of improvement there but Ke have been sort of like one of the standouts and we'll talk about why the standouts in just a moment Bryce. Yeah, they definitely have been. And I really wanted to draw your attention today, Friday, May 29th, last trading day of the month. That one month return on average 52%. So for anyone invested in this sector, the month of May has been absolutely phenomenal. Now to kick things off before we get into the keel analysis, Bit Fufu, I mentioned we just had Charlie Brady on the channel. We talked through the business model, the numbers. I got to say of all the earnings presentations, this one actually had the most to do with the numbers and earnings itself. A big focus on the cloud uh mining or cloud hosting, specifically this user base now in excess of 675,000 clients.
>> Yeah, cloud mining hash rate um and revenues increased significantly. It's the biggest part of the uh of the revenues that the company receive at the moment. um hosting and self-mining have smaller elements. There's only about 3.7 xahash of selfmining and they used to have um I mean they still have a a business where they uh sell machines but during the first quarter of 2026 uh that was zero compared to 6 million sold in the first quarter of 2025. So that that was pulled back a bit there. Maybe the the the metrics at the moment when the Bitcoin price is dropping, difficulty still on the increase means less production, very difficult to make a margin. Uh maybe people aren't going out there and buying as many machines as they were when the Bitcoin price was rallying. And but but maybe this is the time when you should be buying machines when Bitcoin price is dropping in the in the in the expectation that you know in the coming months or years, we'll see that Bitcoin price rally uh significantly through the next bull cycle. Um but interestingly you see there the number of rigs uh self mining units there 80,000 uh rigs there with 404 megawws of power of which they own I think it's about 160 megawatt Bryce >> yeah he said 164 now we asked about the potential of converting those own sites to uh HPC AI use cases sounds like Bit Fufu one of the last true miners holding out uh not specifically mentioning any plans to shift to AIHPC at this point in time. However, I will say Anthony, we've heard that before from many of these teams and I guess the proof is in the pudding here. So, make sure you guys check that one out. A great interview to view over the weekend. The other one we wanted to touch base on yesterday as it related to Riot, we talked about this HUD 8 price target from Caner where they put out a $62 increase per share just based on this second Beacon Hill contract. Now you've found another price target out today, Anthony, $138.
Seems like the street is really starting to wake up to exactly what we've been saying about this reate for the last 18 months. Yeah, KBW has raised their price target, interesting enough, from $89. I mean, it's $125 this morning, but they've raised from $89 to $138.
Um, so, you know, very positive from their point of view, but it's took them a bit longer to to to get that price target out there. I mean, it's been over $100 for quite a while now, but you can see the impact that these deals at Riverbend and Beacon Point adding nearly a fraction under 600 compute megawatt um of power um and and effectively some of the best numbers um of all the companies that have released their uh contracts as well. Um I think net operating income for both of these contracts around about the 100% mark because you know when you question that you say we must have sh costs apparently most of the costs in that in that business model pass through cost to the client. So um Ash is sitting on a on a really good contract there and as you quite rightly say just the Beacon Hill contract alone delivering 352 megawatts of IT compute um that is going to you know bring in 9.8 8 billion and uh net operating income of 665 million throughout the lease uh giving that uh share value about $62 a share. Now we know obviously with these uh contracts as soon as the contracts announced or the expectation that's the contracts announced the share price does get a rer rating from the market not from what these companies are saying but the market also dictates where the share price will be and so you know uh even though Hutate haven't completed these two sites uh there's probably very little work at Beacon Hill. was only recently announced. I would imagine quite a bit of that $62 is built into the price already. Uh what it doesn't build into the price though is all the remaining sites. Remember uh you know Hut have got something that like a pipeline of about 9 uh gawatt of power.
If you look at the developed amount of uh power they've got I think circa around about 5 gawatt. So if you just took the 5 gawatt, the remaining four is like in discussion. Uh so that might come off, might not come off, but they've got 5 gawatt that they pretty much uh can put, you know, to contract in the near future. Um again, they're only sort of like utilizing maybe 14 15% of that power. What if they start energizing a lot more the sites that they've got in the near future in the same way that we're seeing the likes of Terowolf and Cipher? uh digital do you know that rinse and repeat one or two contracts a year what's that going to do to the share price will that be new that'll be new money coming in and so if they make another announcement of another site or another site is close to energization with the expectation of a client being announced then you'll see another rerate and the reason I tell you this is because you know when the market's looking at these they're looking at a number of factors they're looking at the potential um of earnings and revenues and eBar specifically that these companies potentially can earn over the next two or three years. And using that information, they're able to then forecast uh quite clearly what the share price uh could be um if the company were to achieve those levels of revenues and EBITD.
>> So let's take that a little bit further.
Now, speaking of forecasting price targets and returns on investment here, you've put together a table to kind of kick things off today. It looks at some of the heavy hitters in the sector, specifically those that have signed HPC deals already, comparing it to Keel in this situation who has yet to sign a deal. Now we know Riot uh they have the AMD contract for 50 megawws relatively speaking to their portfolio quite small but when you start to look at the percentage returns to the point you just mentioned we think a lot of these potential deals or the element of a deal is starting to creep into the share price. So I'll let you walk through this table first then we can take a deep dive look into KE specifically.
>> Yeah absolutely. So this table's very simplistic. It tells you market cap, share price, the one-year change, those that sign a deal, and how much power they've actually got contracted um to deliver HPC as we speak. Now, iron have have have had that tremendous run all the way through to um you know, October last year when the share price uh in October and November last year rallied all works to $76. It's at $61 when we did this table earlier today. Uh the one-year change based on that share price 620%. Now, they do have a 200 megawatt deal with Microsoft, but they do have 480 megawatts of contracted.
Remember, they've been running their own um uh GPU service and they have a number of clients uh in British Columbia and they've just gone and ordered uh two lots of uh machines. Uh they've ordered 50 sorry 150,000 GPUs which will go into effectively British Columbia and Childris. And they've ordered another 1.6 6 billion um from Dell uh this week.
And so when you start putting that into the equation, the market's seeing that they're giving them that sort of rating now and know we saw the price target yesterday for IRA $99 from Caner and that's based on everything that's known at the moment. So they know they've got the the Microsoft deal. They know what they're going to deliver with these extra GPUs when they arrive at Children's British Columbia, the clients they've already got there. And so they're making an assessment based on what they know at the moment, $99.
Um, so there's plenty more opportunity in that share price uh once they start physically uh switching on the horizon 1 2 3 and 4 and these other DPUs arriving at Childris and the refurbishment that will start taking place of those buildings that are currently housing uh the AIG miners as part of that enormous run to get to 50 Xahash Hut. We've just explained that's two fantastic deals there. 597 megawws there. 712% up in the last year. This is why it's up that high. Two big deals. Terowolf have had a number of deals. 522 megawatts of compute power there. 589.
Riot. Interestingly enough, we covered this yesterday and we were going to cover this table yesterday, but we we didn't have time to put it in there. Um they've only signed two small uh contracts with AMD at the Rockdale facility, not the Corsera facility where you would have expected the HPC to start. That's their flagship site.
That's a 1 gawatt site. And remember Jason and the design team have just come up with an even better design at Corsicer. 756 megawatts of of compute power there. That's going to be really attractive to a hyperscaler. They won't be looking at neoclouds, I don't think, for that site. This is going to be hyperscaler and you can effectively say uh you know the question should be is why is is Riot's market capitalization over 10 billion when they've only got 50 megawatts of contracted yes they've got 42 x aash of mining but we know that the multiples for mining are probably two or 3x the multiples for HPC a minimum of 15 and go as high as 40 so riot understandably because they've got that co econ site because of the emphasis that h the location is perfect. They've got the fiber, they've got the water, they've got the connectivity, everything's there. They've got the 800 megawatts of power now and they'll get the other 200 megawatts uh switched on in the very very near future. That's a 1 gawatt site. Some of that um known uh you know expectation is built into that price there. But we saw from yesterday's uh table that potentially the site at Corsana could give them something like a $50 alone um you know position of which if you say you know $15 is baked into the riot price at the moment of $2730. That would probably be a reasonable expectation and certainly between 10 and $10 and $15. It means that once they do announce a client for that site, you're going to see potentially an uplift of $35 to $40 a loan for that particular share. Cipher in the same way as Terra Wolf, they've got a number of contracts with some really big hitters in in terms of AWS and uh Fluid Stack supported by Google.
Their share price up 624%.
Core Scientific interestingly had the biggest amount of contracted power and have probably delivered the most amount of contracted power of all the mining companies with their deal with Core Weeave. Their share price is only up 150%. Now, arguably Core Scientific's revenues weren't as strong as some of the others, but the difference with Core Scientific compared to the others, they didn't have a client um or their client is prepared to pay for the refurbishment of $500 megawatt of that deal. And so, I believe somewhere in the region of $6 billion um has been, you know, set aside for that. We'll come on to a little bit more about Core Scientific in a second. and something that Adam said there. But if you go to the final one there, I've included KE in this here uh for a couple of reasons. One is the market capitalization has really increased this last 12 months. You can see the the the share change there, 516%.
You think that next column there, it says HPC deal. That should have a tick in there, but it hasn't. They haven't signed a deal. So why is the share price increased so much? Well, it's simple.
Ben Daniel has put his his neck on the block and effectively said, "We're going to sign three deals by the end of 2026."
He's that confident. He's talked about the process. He's talked about zoning, permitting, environmental studies, everything that you need to do to get a site ready to deliver. They've highlighted everything like that more so than any other minor out there. It this is not a case of buy a piece of land and you're going to get power and you're going to get a client. There are so many processes to go through. and Ben and the team there at Keel have been highlighting this through the podcast and explaining the processes that they go through and they've pretty much got a lot of ticks in those process steps at the moment. So he feels at this moment now having had the conversations, having done all the processes to get to where they need to be, having got the power and energization um happening at those three sites, particularly Moses Lake, Sharon, and their flagship site flagship site at Panther Creek. Um he's expectation is that they'll have three deals signed before the end of 2026.
Yeah, and that's where we wanted to spend some time for the remainder of today's episode. So, similar to yesterday, we've got this visual available in the newsletter, uh, which comes out each Friday. You can sign up on the website, a one-page, one-stop shop for Keel Infrastructure.
Essentially, everything you need to know about this company. I'll leave this here if you guys want to pause the screen, take a closer look, or again, sign up for the newsletter. But what we wanted to focus in on is this sensitivity analysis. Anthony, we did a very similar thing for Riot yesterday at the Corsacana site. But to your point with Keel, they've got three potential sites up for grabs. So, I wanted you to walk through what these three deals could mean for share price, how much of that has been priced in already, and what this starts to look like if we see the cost per megawatt start to creep up, which is actually what we heard from core scientific to your earlier point.
>> Yeah, absolutely. And um just so that you're aware, um I have had to make some assumptions on the amount of um estimated compute here. Um, I really looked at what they had in terms of cash and what they would likely be able to borrow to determine, you know, a level of expert expectancy and and really I've gone for about 150 megawatts there. We know that um Moses Lake is around about 14 megawatt and then Sharon and Panther Creek are significantly more size there.
110 megawatts, 350 megawatt, but there's no way they can deliver those sites at that level with the amount of uh financing that they've got and the amount they'd have to raise. We're talking about a minimum of about $10 million uh per megawatt. So, even if they were able to um put 150 megawws um in terms of uh you know, three deals um moving into 2027, that's going to be $1.5 billion. So, I've used 150 megawatts. I mean, obviously, the model I can model it on any any number, but it was a it was a sensible um assumption to make. Uh revenue is at $2 million per megawatt. The reason I'm keeping it at $2 million per megawatt is the location of of their sites is in a in a prime area where lots of hyperscalers. So, I would imagine they'll be able to track the best amount of revenues. EBITD margin, I've reduced that to 70% and there's a reason uh for that. Um, you know, I I think that, you know, a lot of these companies have put out some really really strong EBITDAR expectations and I'm just being a little bit cautious.
Yesterday we had right at 80%. Um, I initially had it at 70%, I raised it to 80% on the grounds that we've been to Cory Carana. Uh we've looked at what they did in terms of build out the uh immersion cooling plants there and and and and that there and what they can deliver in terms of their um infrastructure to meet their HPC uh strategy. Um so there might be you know potentially more expectation all on one site uh more manageable so maybe not using as much um uh labor cost to do that. If you've got three separate sites you might have no not enough economies of scale. So being a bit more you know uh focus on that EBITD 70% capex have kept at $10 million. Now interestingly enough today there was um came out on social media about Adam Sullivan who's the CEO of core scientific recently attended a conference and um effectively he's been saying the one problem they've they've seen arise over this past sort of like 12 months is the labor costs for teams coming in to work at these sites.
So labor itself is going up by about 20%, but electrical labor is going up by 30%. What that's meant to call scientific numbers there, where they had a forecast in of around about 8 to9 million per megawatt, that's closer to $12 million per megawatt. So again, where a lot of these companies have been putting in 9 to 11, I use 10. Maybe I'm not being as um as as close to the real numbers, but I'll keep it as 10 there.
But we can show that change and we can um you know see what the impact is and we did a quick look before the podcast see what like and we'll tell you about that in a second. Contract term 15 years based on everyone else has got a 15-year contract for the first lot. There'll probably be extensions to that as well.
Use the same multiple of 20. I think that's quite fair. That's quite at the low end there. 15 to 40 is the probably the the the uh the the the uh the difference between the low and the high.
I've used 20 which is probably towards the lower side. um probability by scenario. Well, I've give it 100%. Ben said we're going to get three deals.
We're going to get three deals. So, you work through the numbers there. You get the EBIT DAR of $210 million. The enterprise value uh based on this contract being added to what they've got at the moment takes them up to $4.2 billion. The development capex $1.5 billion. Um equity value created 2.747 billion. Now, if you to look at how many shares they've got, 603 million shares based on those assumptions, $455 um per share would be added if they were to um add 150 megawws. The question being, Bryce, is how much of their current $566 share price at the time of the podcast has got any of that 150 megawatts factored into it? And I would suggest probably maybe you know $150 to $2 is certainly probably factored in there. You you know the share price has had a real ram over 100% up in the last month or so. So you can say you know literally from when Ben started to talk about three deals. We saw a real move on the share price. So you know it's not all factored in but some of it will be factored in. But there'll still be, you know, potential rise. If my numbers are low and he comes out with three bigger deals and there's more than 150, then that will make a significant impact.
Sensitivity covers the difference if we if they don't achieve 70% and they get either more or less than 70%. And you've also got the revenue per megawatt um going from 1.7 million all the way up to 2.15 million per megawatt. So those make a difference there. To end on it, we did a calculation based on $12 million per megawatt in terms of capex, which is what Adam's been saying at his sites. He's got five sites in in the US where he's building for Corewave. That impact would be uh about 50 a share. So instead of $4.55, it would $405.
$45. So you'd lose 50 cents um per share if the capex increased by 2 million. I don't want you rushing out there and saying every time it increased by 2 million it's going to be but that particular scenario we ran the model with the additional capex and it came out $45.
So remember that number there. But as I say uh bear in mind these are my assumptions on here. This is, you know, and I believe it's close to a lot of it's close to reality because I've seen what everybody else has put out there and there's a lot of consistency in the numbers. 9 to 11 million is what Cipher and Ter have been quoting. Um, you know, C call c call scientific were closer to 9 million. Now they're thinking it's 12 million. So again, in that sort of in that sort of range, we're not too far away. I think 10 million is a good number to start with, but if if labor prices are going up by 20%, you've got to factor 20% into the numbers. Um, you know, that's something I'm in the UK. I don't see that as a from from a a direct position. You're not in the US either, Bryce. So, we're not seeing the move in labor costs as as probably closely as these companies are who are at the sides themselves.
>> It's funny you bring up labor because we've been talking a lot about that as a potential bottleneck now as so many of these sites come online. But very interesting analysis, Anthony. We did a similar thing for Riot yesterday. Let us know below you guys. What are your thoughts on this share price target? How much of it's been baked in? The interesting thing with markets, they're obviously forwardlooking, but everyone's looking forward to a different time period. So, we'd love to hear your thoughts. Also worth noting on the power analysis website, poweranalysis.io, all of the deals have been compiled there. So Anony's gone in put in each one of the deals, the offtakers, the duration, the lease terms, the NOI, the megawatts, plus done some comparative analysis. So it's a great place to start your due diligence. Again, thanks so much for the support this week, you guys. Hopefully the portfolios are looking well for you guys, and we'll see you back here on Monday.
>> [music]
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