ليفل الوحش في التناقضات | الذهب وأسواق المال الجمعة 22/05/2026

Added: 2026-05-24

[00:00:03]Peace be upon you. Good evening everyone.

[00:00:05]Welcome to this live broadcast, the daily live broadcast we always meet for during the week, from Monday to Friday, at 10 PM UAE time (10 PM Saudi time). Let us know quickly about the sound and picture. Sound: fine. Picture: fine. Don't forget the timer! We didn't forget it.

[00:00:25]Hopefully, the delay is for the best. We weren't late. Oh, okay, about five minutes. We're based on this because today isn't exactly 10 PM. Today we set it to 10:10 UAE time, and we even included 9:09, which is a special time in Saudi Arabia. Anyway, let's quickly start our discussion about gold and fundamental analysis.

[00:00:50]We'll try, as much as possible, to keep today's chat light, focusing only on what might happen during the weekend.

[00:01:00]But we need to cover what happened previously so we can build on it for what's expected to happen later.

[00:01:09]First, literally, regarding one of the series— I think it's "The Will" starring Ahmed Amin—we've literally reached a new level of absurdity. I mean, literally, before, we used to hear the statement and... Then, maybe half an hour, an hour, or two, we hear the denial of the statement. But we've literally reached a new stage where we hear the statement and its opposite at the same moment, literally in the same minute. And this is n't an exaggeration.

[00:01:47]An update is released saying there's no agreement and we won't negotiate on nuclear weapons, and at the same moment, at the same time, an update is released saying an agreement has been reached on nuclear weapons. So, literally, the markets are in a state of confusion, bewilderment, and a monster of contradictions because what's happening isn't normal. The amount of contradictions is neither normal, healthy, nor correct for the markets. It's impossible for the markets to hear a piece of news and its opposite at the same moment. Ultimately, which of the two pieces of news will be built upon or believed? That's why we saw the markets rise from 4520, go almost towards 30, then fall back again, currently towards 15. Yes, the reactions are limited because the markets have been exhausted by the reactions. Number one, and number two, the contradictions that are being issued in the statements are holding the markets back. It's limited by what it might react to. Will it react negatively? Will it react positively? But the point is, since oil prices are currently still declining, they have also rebounded. They've rebounded from the low we saw.

[00:03:05]Oil prices reached around 98.60 and are now around 100.20. 20 is talking about a rise of approximately 60 cents, which is more than 1.5%. This tells you that the markets are experiencing a state of not fear or tension, but at the same time, they haven't been able to break the support level for oil. Again, the importance of the support level for oil isn't technical; rather, it tells you what's going on in market sentiment, in the minds of the market. Is there tension or reassurance? Is there optimism or depression? How can we interpret what the markets understand from oil prices? Whenever oil prices decline, at least with regard to the US-Iran issue, it means there's calm, at least in the markets' understanding. So, yes, oil is declining, that's true, but it hasn't been able to break through, hasn't been able to achieve a clear break, hasn't been able to maintain a clear negative stability in terms of prices. Especially with the support fund, excuse us, if it wasn't able to break the support fund, then this means there is still a state of anxiety and fear, even if it is partially limited, but at least there is no sense of reassurance to build upon. This is at least regarding the oil sector now. What is expected from these details, what is expected from what is currently happening in the markets, is that we will most likely see new details this weekend.

[00:05:10]Why? You have more than one reason, more than one axis.

[00:05:13]First, the Pakistani army chief traveled to Tehran. Second, you have a Qatari delegation, confirmed by more than one source, that traveled to Tehran, to Iran, to talk and try to bring viewpoints closer. These two delegations, whether Pakistani or Qatari, and Iran, always emphasize that the Pakistani delegation remains the main negotiator or the one concerned with the negotiations. In any case, we will not go into this detail because it is not important. What concerns us is whether they will reach an agreement or not. If you have two delegations currently, the two delegations, according to the details, are expected to conclude their visit. They arrived today and their visit ends tomorrow, Saturday. Therefore, you will most likely see details, either on Saturday evening or on Sunday. Then you have a meeting. With the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, if my memory serves me right, this is the first time, or in any case, this is one of the few times a meeting is possible. This means we should hear new details, whether it's an agreement and the development of new steps, or the end of the current diplomatic situation. So, most likely, you have drama coming this weekend. You probably have details coming up about what will actually happen during the weekend. Therefore, if you want to reduce your risks, stop, close your trades, do a full stop-loss operation, or reverse your trades to be balanced so you can enter the weekend relaxed.

[00:07:03]Because again, you will most likely witness interactions, and perhaps these interactions will be significant, depending on the details.

[00:07:10]Now, maybe nothing will happen and the markets will open normally. That's possible, but the details you have now tell you that you will most likely witness new details, and from these, it is also likely that there will be new details that should affect the markets, either negatively or positively.

[00:07:33]The markets are still hesitant to take a step; they are trying, but their attempts remain timid, calm, and balanced. We see a big reaction because the conflict and contradiction are still confusing the markets. The markets are optimistic at one stage and then become depressed again at the next. Details are coming that affect oil positively and then negatively. In short, even the markets themselves do not have a clear view of what will happen next.

[00:08:11]What is the next detail? The markets are watching closely, just like the rest of the markets. Everyone is waiting for any statement that is issued. The markets react to it. A big statement, a smaller one, and even a more subtle one. We can call them clear statements, but the markets react to them. For example, even a statement like, "The Pakistani army chief will travel to Tehran," and that's it, the news ended with that phrase, and the markets reacted, and gold prices rose. So, the markets are trying to create anything to react to. They're trying to react to the mere whiff of the news, not even the actual news itself, because this news doesn't contain any details. Is this trip to Tehran positive or negative? Nobody knows. He's just traveling. The news is that the Pakistani army chief will be traveling to Tehran, and that's it. Is it positive or negative? Is there progress in the negotiations? There are no details, yet prices rose, and in an exaggerated way. I think prices were around 4510 or 4505, then they rose to 4530, then they fell back down because the news itself didn't contain any details that warranted such a reaction. Yet, the markets reacted, and on the contrary, as we mentioned.

[00:09:43]In the tweet, we argued that the logic should be based on the opposite, on the negative impact on gold. Just because he traveled—reports yesterday indicated that an agreement was imminent, just hours away, and perhaps there was no need for him to travel to Tehran at all— simply because he's traveling to Tehran tells you there are details that need to be resolved, points need to be clarified, and viewpoints need to be reconciled. So, when he travels, this news should logically put negative pressure on gold prices. Despite this, gold prices rose. And yet, those who took this rise, which is illusory and chaotic, even though it came with the news, are still chaotic.

[00:10:35]The price dropped to 4530 and then retreated again. It even retested that level recently, at 4496, again without any details. But ultimately, if you put all the details together, then yes, if you evaluate them as a whole, they are more likely to exert negative pressure on gold prices than positively support them.

[00:11:04]So, tomorrow, Ghayth, if prices open and rise, you'll say, "Well, you told me that, but I didn't!"

[00:11:11]My friend, we're talking about... The details currently being released simply tell you that there is no agreement, at least in the near future, even with tomorrow's meeting with the Revolutionary Guard commander. If these details emerge and the tone and intensity change, it will be because, so far, Iranian statements indicate wide gaps, intransigence in demands, and a high ceiling for demands. Consequently, they are saying that reaching an agreement is impossible, and that even discussing the details of the nuclear file will prevent an agreement. They can't even reach a general framework for understandings because America considers the nuclear file and the Strait of Hormuz a red line. Currently, this point seems ambiguous because the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman's statements focused on the nuclear file and ignored commenting on the Strait of Hormuz. Let's assume that Iran has been lenient on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, but the nuclear file remains the most dangerous and influential issue for the American side, which is non-negotiable.

[00:12:34]Ultimately, I personally believe, based on American statements, that if America is willing to show flexibility on either of the two main issues... Hormuz or the nuclear issue? Iran will show flexibility in the Strait of Hormuz. I believe that ultimately, they will impose fees on the Strait of Hormuz, they will install gates—you know, gates—meaning, collect your fees, but abandon the nuclear project. The nuclear project is number one, and the Strait of Hormuz is number two in terms of red lines. Today, the talk is that there is no room for a nuclear agreement. Every time they delve into the details, they don't reach a point where they can discuss it. After they said they would hand over the nuclear program, they came back and said, "No, we will not hand over the nuclear program. We still have it."

[00:13:25]America says, "We will receive the nuclear program."

[00:13:28]America means they will not accept mediation to transfer the nuclear program to, say, China or Russia. They say the nuclear program will be handed over to America.

[00:13:39]Iran says, "No, we will not hand over the nuclear program to America or anyone else. We still have the enriched uranium." So, these are the details. In short, to summarize this point completely, the details are still stuck, intertwined, and complex. It is not possible at this moment that things might clear up quickly later.

[00:14:05]Never say impossible, but things don't seem to be heading towards a rapid breakthrough.

[00:14:13]Perhaps if initial points are reached, they can build upon them later. However, the US has stated more than once that they always have this feeling or sense that Iran is stalling for time to gain more time for its nuclear weapons program, and they are concerned about this. If the process of postponing negotiations and the issue of enriched uranium is delayed, I believe that, based on what is being said by both sides, it doesn't seem appropriate for the US, and it doesn't seem that Iran will abandon it.

[00:14:51]Therefore, there is optimism in the markets, yes, it exists, but this optimism is not genuine, substantial, or stable. On the contrary, it seems fragile so far and cannot be relied upon. Therefore, I am wary of developments, especially again. In conclusion, a Pakistani delegation and a Qatari delegation are present to facilitate the negotiations. The Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army is also in Tehran and will meet with the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

[00:15:24]This, as I mentioned, if my memory serves me right, is the first time this meeting will take place. This means either an agreement or a narrowing of the wide gaps, although this doesn't seem logical. Or rather, logic seems to be what is always known about the Revolutionary Guard: that they are actually more hardline. This probably means the end of the diplomatic track and perhaps an escalation that may even come at the weekend, because so far the reports are telling you that the American and Israeli sides are ready to start strike operations, but the situation has been postponed or calmed down. Are they really ready? This matter is up to them, but beware. In short, beware of any escalating developments, whether positive for diplomacy and an agreement—though the latter seems less likely—or escalation, even though there's no talk of it yet. It seems that if an agreement is reached, things will move towards an escalation that might occur over the weekend.

[00:16:30]Therefore, be wary of new details between Saturday and Sunday.

[00:16:37]Let's take note of the comments we have, and then, God willing, we'll return to discuss price levels or what we actually expect over the weekend.

[00:16:51]Let's take note of the comments we have.

[00:16:54]Heartfelt congratulations to you on the occasion of Eid al-Adha. May you be well every year, my dearest friend. And you too, Mu'taz. Peace be upon you. You're a light, my friend.

[00:17:02]Hello, falcon! We're waiting for you, my dear. The title is a true reflection of what's happening; it literally means they've really disrupted the markets. Welcome, Professor. Hello, Haider.

[00:17:13]Thank you for your real-time updates on all the news and fluctuations. Continuous updates, may God bless you. Will the captain put pressure on WASH or inflation? This will keep him silent for a while. Honestly, I do n't think he's pressuring him right now.

[00:17:27]Things are already spiraling out of control, especially oil prices, which have been soaring for the past three months. I think he'll remain neutral for now.

[00:17:39]He might tell him there are tempting signs of an interest rate cut, but remaining neutral is better.

[00:17:45]The markets are currently betting on an interest rate hike, not now, but in December. It's too early to talk about it, of course, but why? This is one of the points we've addressed. Why are the markets betting on an interest rate hike in December and not now? Because the effects of inflation always impact prices. These are called delays; there are lags, so the effects come late. That's why the markets aren't pricing in now, even though the rise in oil prices is affecting inflation. But the markets aren't betting on an interest rate hike now; they're betting on a December rate hike. This is also a crucial point, so you have a broader understanding of why the markets aren't betting on an interest rate hike now. Because they're betting on delayed effects that will force the Fed to... Following the interest rate hike, may God grant you success.

[00:18:47]Thank you, Emad. Iran is becoming increasingly rigid despite the sanctions. Does it still have enough leverage, and for how long? I think even the way Iran is demanding compensation clearly indicates that it needs urgent financial assistance. I don't believe this rigidity or intransigence is actually happening. This is a game of finger-pointing, a way to see who will be hurt first and surrender. This is what's being played right now.

[00:19:13]I think it's clear that in this finger-pointing game, Iran is supposed to be the one to suffer first. That's why they're applying pressure.

[00:19:23]Even with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from the American side, this is also paralyzing movement or financial revenues for Iran. Will global markets be affected by the Eid al- Adha holiday? No, it's not usually affected.

[00:19:38]Hello, Professor. Thank you for your efforts with us.

[00:19:41]May God reward you, and I wish you success, health, and well-being. Thank you, Delwar Emad Magdy. Welcome, Beast. Thank you, Magdy. It seems today's conversation is quite interesting. Well, usually, the weekend live broadcast is a bit more relaxed, as we don't have anything to talk about. We don't have anything to discuss regarding what's coming with tomorrow's opening. Do you expect the interest rate to remain above $90?

[00:20:10]Yes, I think it's possible. Yes, an interest rate hike, and perhaps even if prices continue in this way. Now, I expect that if the current crisis ends, prices will decline, perhaps towards $70, let's say plus minus. But I think they will return again towards $ 90. So I think that perhaps the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates before December. Here, perhaps the surprise will come later.

[00:20:41]Is it expected that the initial agreement will be announced before today's close? I don't think so, and God knows best, unless there are surprises, but that doesn't seem to be the case right now. You deserve a million likes.

[00:20:54]Thank you, Ehab. The broadcast time was 10:10. Okay, the captain seems to be in a hurry to reach an agreement to reach half-record prices and the impact of that on the US midterm elections. Yes, this is somewhat true. It also plays a role in the same way through the timing. May the reason be good. May the delay be for the best. Okay, all of this was before we started.

[00:21:18]Then the sound and picture were perfect. Haider is always present and interactive. God bless you, Abu Khalid. It's been a long time since we saw the Dow go up and gold go down. By God, you are actually seeing gold and oil go down right now.

[00:21:30]This is the crazy equation that they've been hammering into our heads, that if you see oil going down, you should know that gold will soar to the high eagle bases on the tops of the high mountains. But in the end, you actually have oil down 1.5% and gold down 0.6%, and silver down 1%.

[00:21:59]So the equations Actually, what they're trying to create is unrealistic or cannot be relied upon.

[00:22:07]Thanks in advance for the broadcast. Do you think that the approaching World Cup might make a return to the military option, even partially, unlikely? And does the visit of a Qatari delegation to Iran contribute positively? I don't think the World Cup is connected in any way. I mean, the issue is very far-fetched.

[00:22:23]Iran isn't even targeting America itself right now.

[00:22:26]Iran is barely responding internally, so I don't think there are any effects, or that anyone—I've even heard analysts, politicians, and military figures—talking about it. So personally, I rule out this influence. The visit of a Qatari delegation contributes positively, of course. I mean, any new contribution to bringing viewpoints closer is possible, but the basic principle is that the Iranians have an intention to move towards the positive side. Always distinguished.

[00:22:55]All my love and gratitude. Thank you, Ammar. Is it possible that the crisis could extend even during the World Cup? It's very possible. Thank you, my dear friend. Thank you, Ashraf Al-Saqr Al-Jareh and Haider May. Okay, this is the time, with the start of the broadcast. Okay, distinctive, exclusive, and magical price levels.

[00:23:12]And Ghaithiyah, may God bless you.

[00:23:16]Thank you, Ihab Al- Saqr Al-Jarh, Fatim. Thank you very much for attending and interacting. I have a question: why, if an agreement is reached, is it expected that gold will rise? I think that the economy and stocks will improve, and liquidity will be in the stock markets, not gold. This is logical, yes, and this is what I mean, let's say the most rational, the most logical. But since the markets are falling whenever there are tensions and rising whenever there are signs that an agreement will be reached, it is possible that the process of releasing pressure on the markets will cause gold to rise. That's why we talked about the effects. They may come, for one session, for three markets, or twice, meaning it passes through Shanghai twice, London twice, New York twice, and so on. Welcome, you magnificent one. It's good that the delay is like this. It gave us a chance to pray before going live. I wish you would adopt it now. Ten minutes is fine, we won't disagree on it.

[00:24:18]Congratulations on the arrival of Eid al-Adha. May you all be well every year. And you too, my world, Professor Ghaith, truly my world. Thank you, Abdullah. Likes, guys. Always, if you think that the effort and content deserve interaction, then social media is built on This principle is an effort and content from one side, and your interaction from the other, so that we can reach the largest possible number of interested people and save as many people as possible who are easily misled and easily sold myths and illusions. You even earn reward every time the live videos reach new people, because at least you are raising awareness of someone who might otherwise become an easy victim of the "two lines vertically and two lines horizontally" group, the "Three Brave Candles" group, the Pikachu candle group, and the Grendizer candle group. May God help us.

[00:25:18]Thank you, Professor. There's a rumor circulating that Captain America is wanted at the White House and won't be attending his son's wedding.

[00:25:26]The news is spreading in several newspapers. I saw him comment on anything like that, but I think the tweet was somewhat ordinary. That's why I didn't read it completely. He was saying, "I wish I could be with my son, but I won't be there." I didn't read it. What does that mean? What are the full details he was talking about? It's not news. He actually tweeted it, despite my strong desire to be with my son and the newest member of the Trump family, his fiancée.

[00:26:10]However, circumstances related to government affairs and my love for the United States do not allow me to do so. I feel it is important for me to remain in Washington, D.C., at the White House during this important period. Congratulations to Don and his fiancée, Petina. This isn't just rumors or news; it's official news, an official tweet, that he won't be attending. This is official news, not just rumors or hearsay circulating in newspapers, Ashraf. But sources haven't commented on it much, and the markets haven't reacted to it. But perhaps, yes, if you look at it from the other side of the coin, he might be preparing for a move that could happen this weekend.

[00:26:59]Regards, Abu Khalid. What is the scenario if an agreement is reached, and what will the reaction be? An upward trend? The second scenario is if they don't agree. Will we see a sharp decline? No agreement will cause a sharp decline unless there is... New details mean that what we're literally seeing is Ismailia going back and forth. We're seeing the situation swinging back and forth, so you won't see a sharp drop if there's no agreement, unless there's an escalation. You'll see a sharp drop if there's an agreement, depending on the nature of the agreement, meaning a final agreement. Well, these are just the broad outlines, so each one will have its own scenario. We'll try to talk about them, God willing, shortly. Peace be upon you. How many days is the Eid holiday?

[00:27:44]And the opening of the market? The market isn't actually related to the Eid holiday, so you should expect a normal opening on Monday. I think there will be an early closing or something like that on Monday for a holiday they have that isn't related to the Eid holiday, but on Monday things will be normal. Eid Mubarak, and may you all be well every year. The final options have an impact on next week's prices.

[00:28:08]Yes, of course. Regards. Thank you, Saad.

[00:28:13]Yes, we know about your great efforts. We must support the broadcast with likes, comments, and shares, and this is the least we can offer. Thank you, Emad, for the interaction and the kind words. Let's take the comments that are with us in the live broadcast before we go back.

[00:28:34]Before we move on to discussing price levels, peace, mercy, and blessings of God be upon you all.

[00:28:39]Hello everyone. Haider, God bless him, was present in the horizontal live stream and then jumped into the vertical live stream. He interacted a bit and came back again.

[00:28:49]God bless you, Haider, God bless you. I'm protecting you. What do I expect the Fed's next decision with the new president to be? A hold, and God knows best. I mean, even according to market bets, gold might reach 4100, and I still think it will be lower than 4100. So let's say a new bottom. I think a new bottom, and God knows best. This is the logical thing to expect, so let's not jump to conclusions.

[00:29:11]But I still think... I mean, we're not talking about today, tomorrow. We're talking about the near-term and medium-term futures, meaning between the short term and the medium term. I think we'll see a bottom.

[00:29:27]We'll talk about it in more detail, God willing.

[00:29:32]Is it a good time to buy physical gold or not?

[00:29:34]Thank you. We'll talk about it in more detail with technical analysis of price levels, so the picture will become clearer, God willing. Let's talk about technical analysis of price levels, and then we'll come back again. For comments, but before discussing technical analysis, it's always important to remember the advantages of trading with Swissquote. When you trade with Swissquote, you're trading with a Swiss bank licensed and authorized by the Swiss financial authorities, not just a brokerage firm.

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[00:32:26]Whether for investment, trading, or Forex, contact Mr. Yazan. Tell him you got the number from the live stream so he can give you exclusive privileges because you're always special, dear ladies and gentlemen followers. Now let's move on to talking about price levels and technical analysis as much as possible, although the details so far seem to be going as we discussed a little while ago in the fundamental analysis, sometimes up, sometimes down. But currently, it seems prices have retreated again. First, just to comment quickly regarding technical analysis, the levels of the current four-hour candle are perhaps one of the rare times—I won't say it's the first time this has happened—but it's very rare to witness such a chaotic divergence. The levels in this current four-hour candle are 4510, then 4506, then 96 (meaning 10), then actually $8, then $12. This divergence in the levels tells you that there is a conflict or chaos even in the technical signals that have fallen or crossed these price levels, indicating a sharp movement, whether upward, by the way, or In the downward movement, even in the upward movement, you have convergence followed by divergence, then convergence, then divergence. This method, this method of chaos in resistance and the greater in support, most likely tells you that the markets are exhausted and ready to take a sharp step, to react with sharp fluctuations. I personally am still concerned for traders that this sharp movement will come before the close of trading today. What is the reason? There's no reason yet to tell you there will be a sharp movement, but the chaotic nature of the market at least warns you of a potential sharp movement.

[00:34:42]The warning is always: take precautions. You won't lose anything, but if a sharp movement occurs and you haven't accounted for it, if you're not prepared, then, God forbid, the loss will be because you didn't take the necessary precautions. So take precautions, and then you won't need them. This is a thousand times better than not taking precautions and then being caught in the price movement. Now let's focus our discussion again on price levels, or technical analysis, which always comes after fundamental analysis. If you do n't have a mirror image of fundamental analysis, don't mirror it, don't try to match it with technical analysis, because you don't have the foundation to build on. So today, yes, the fluctuations are weak and limited. You're talking about a range between 4513 and 450, approximately. All the candles within the candle body are confined to a range of $17, but the rise and fall are n't based on fundamental analysis, but rather on technical support and corrections. Price fluctuations are occurring, sometimes corrective, sometimes positive, sometimes negative, and so on. If you consider that these fluctuations are due to external factors, then fundamental analysis comes into play.

[00:36:14]We've already discussed fundamental analysis sufficiently. Now, let's look at the technical analysis. The pivot points we saw at the 5413 level indicate that the price support level is holding strong so far. The price support level extending towards 4496 is also significant because these details appear strong in attracting buying pressure on dips. Therefore, we say that if the price support level isn't broken, you might witness an acceleration of the downward trend. At that point, liquidity won't find an outlet for buying dips, so prices won't rise again. You also likely won't find many people maintaining their positions; instead, they'll likely opt for easing. This will exert further downward pressure once the support level is broken. Those who have maintained their positions and protected prices by stabilizing above it are essentially always positioned higher, like any fund. From the bottom up, as long as it's maintaining prices from the top, this tells you that the fund isn't fragile or weak. However, be wary of the way you're testing prices against the fund's ceiling. It's like, let's say, the ceiling of a cardboard box or a wooden box. The wooden box is still in place because it's protecting prices from their highest point. But once this price ceiling is broken, beware that the fund may have deteriorated, crumbled, or undergone a process called... what's it called?

[00:38:21]Support from this fund may have diminished, and consequently, the fund may lose its importance, perhaps suddenly, and prices may fall below it, breaking it. Especially since we've seen many tests and witnessed the tail of the 1 towards the lower limit, towards the fund's bottom at 4496, and prices quickly rebounded. Yes, up until now, 4513 seems to have become more important than the fund itself because of the numerous tests, as it's acting as the main buffer supporting prices.

[00:39:03]Therefore, again, to conclude this point specifically, beware of breaking the 4513 level, as it will most likely allow a break below 4496, especially After this last test from the first direction, on the opposite side, the 4550 level didn't reach it.

[00:39:25]Prices were content with the fluctuations we saw towards 530. Yes, we saw quick wicks above it, but the return was to negativity and a decline.

[00:39:37]If we take it on the half-hour timeframe to make the testing process clearer, you notice the testing process at 4530 literally after prices broke it in the morning. You see a breakout in the first candle, a return in the next candle, wicks, then a breakout in the first half-hour candle. That is, it doesn't even last half an hour. The second candle immediately returns, the prices retreat from it. This gives you another indication that prices, even with the optimism that came to the markets, are limited, and the optimism itself, when it comes, is firstly limited, and secondly without real momentum. There was no momentum at all throughout the day, but the upward movements had somewhat less momentum than the downward movements, especially since we witnessed the largest drop. Let's leave that aside. We call this here. It came in approximately 1%, approximately $45. The downward movement was more pronounced than the upward movement. This is an additional point. Prices did not attempt to go towards the pivot point of 4550.

[00:40:55]This is also an additional point. Now, regarding what is coming or what we expect if there is an agreement, like the question that has now been raised: if there is an agreement, what is the scenario? If there is no agreement, what is the scenario? And of course, the more likely question is: if there is an escalation, what is the expected scenario? If there is an agreement, what is expected, or what are the details of this agreement?

[00:41:32]Is the agreement clear and well-defined, or is it a fragile, weak preliminary agreement awaiting negotiations that could extend for a long period? Consequently, the risk of a reversal later on may be present, depending on the details of the agreement, the points agreed upon, and the statements that will come later from both the Iranian and American sides regarding their optimism about the initial agreement. Because now all the talk is focused on a preliminary agreement, meaning, let's just stay calm and not return to escalation again. There is no solution yet, and therefore, at the moment, the markets are waiting for the details. Let's take a quick look at the details. First, if the agreement is, let's say, vague and lacking details, discussions and negotiations will take place over seven days, as the latest developments have indicated. This detail might raise gold prices, but I think the effect will be very limited, perhaps $20 or $30, and it should n't exceed $50 or something like that.

[00:42:49]The markets will then calm down and eventually retreat because there is no real incentive. If there were clearer details on the nuclear file and the Strait of Hormuz, then we might see a different outcome. For example, you might have a reaction later, $ 50, $75, $100. The clearer the details and the more points of agreement, the more we will witness. Now, a final agreement seems unlikely based on everything mentioned so far. A final agreement seems unlikely; it doesn't seem to be present at the moment. But let's consider it just once, since we are considering all scenarios. If an agreement doesn't happen, as we are always talking about, the expected price is $250 plus or minus, perhaps more or less, towards $300 or $200. This seems exaggerated. However, if it does happen, it wo n't be considered, let's say, surprising. It will still be exaggerated, yes, but it won't be very surprising.

[00:43:54]Logically, like one of the questions, why would it rise? It is assumed that the tensions have ended, the economies are improving, stocks are rising, and consequently, gold is falling. This is what will happen in the next stage because the markets are operating on the principle of electric shocks hitting a body—let's say this body is unconscious or in a coma. When the shocks hit, the markets react. These tremors are reactions, these are nervous contractions and reflexes. So you're seeing a reaction, and as we mentioned, the reaction usually won't last long. We might see a complete daily cycle between Shanghai, London, and New York, a period of positivity that you might experience again.

[00:44:49]Personally, I expect a third time at most. You'll see two or three days of celebration following the agreement, and then things will return to normal. Even oil prices might return, if we don't get carried away. We'll discuss this later. But if it happens, don't be too optimistic about prices reaching historical highs and returning above 5600. We're talking about pre- war levels because prices have been stable for a long time now, even without war. Before the current escalations, there were periods when the markets started to believe that war wouldn't return, yet prices didn't rise towards 5000, let alone 5400, which was the first day of the war.

[00:45:48]Prices didn't dare. At the 5000 level, it settled at 4850 and then retreated, so a major reaction isn't expected. Logically, it's unlikely to cause further turmoil. We'll discuss this later. So far, the markets are moving smoothly, though they seem more inclined to move in a "fi-fi" fashion, one step forward, one step back. If there's no agreement, the markets will wait to see what's next. If there's no agreement, will there be an escalation?

[00:46:28]If there are threats, then yes, gold prices are expected to fall. An escalation is possible, and they might fall even more sharply.

[00:46:34]If there's indeed a return to direct confrontation, it's quite possible that on Monday's trading, you might see prices heading towards the 4290 level. That's roughly $200-$250.

[00:46:53]Yes, it's quite possible that you might see that; in fact, it seems likely that prices will move in that direction. That's the gist of the technical analysis.

[00:47:06]Finally, before we conclude the analysis, or even end the technical analysis, please be very careful about the weekend. It seems there will be new details and updates. In other words, don't be complacent and don't try to ignore what might happen over the weekend.

[00:47:28]As we mentioned, the negotiations will end on Saturday. The Pakistani and Qatari negotiating teams, who are currently in Tehran, will return after their mission. An agreement might be reached, or there might be an escalation and a resumption of strikes on Sunday. So far, there is no news, but keep this in mind.

[00:47:47]Therefore, please, out of my concern for each and every one of you personally, try to take these details into account and prepare for them. If nothing happens, you haven't lost anything. But if details and developments occur and affect the markets, please remain as balanced as possible. With this, we have finished the technical analysis. Let's take the remaining comments. We will return, God willing, and then we will see if we still have enough time. Is it a good time to buy Physica? I think we have already answered that.

[00:48:27]What is the impact? The end of options contracts always has an impact, let's call it new liquidity, additional liquidity, waves of liquidity that don't come all at once, they come in waves of flows. So be wary of them, especially with the current details, as their impact is expected to be more negative on gold. Thank you, Al-Saqr Al-Jarh, and Pearl. Happy New Year.

[00:48:59]Excellent analysis, 100% correct.

[00:49:03]Thank you. I'm trying to help you on all fronts, in all directions. Thank you, Haider, thank you, thank you. You deserve it. Thank you, Haider.

[00:49:14]Ashraf, we contacted Mr. Yazan and are currently in the account opening procedures. We spoke highly of you and told him I'm not just from the broadcast, but a member of the group for over a year. By God, Ashraf, this is a compliment I cherish and am proud of. You have no idea how much happiness and positive energy you give me with these kind and elegant words. May God bless you. As always, I will rewatch the entire vertical broadcast after finishing the horizontal one because there is always benefit in repetition. Thank you, Emad. Thank you, my dear Al-Saqr Al-Jarh. Yes.

[00:49:50]There's been a sharp movement in cryptocurrencies right now.

[00:49:53]Yes, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, have been stable for a while, hovering around 77 and 700, heading towards 78. Currently at 76 and 500.

[00:50:03]We hope there won't be a sharp drop tonight. I'm worried because there are signs that suggest a sharp movement today. Could gold fall if an agreement is reached, even though everyone expects a rise that might give the market hope to speculators? Well, this is one of the scenarios that seems extreme, but yes, it seems to be one of the options because everyone has become optimistic about the issue. There are so many price increases with every agreement. With every agreement, you're afraid they'll play the boy who cried wolf. Every time they're rising, the closer the agreement gets, the higher the price rises.

[00:50:40]You're afraid that when the agreement is reached, they'll actually bring down gold. And it seems logical that there's no longer a forced demand for safe havens. The dollar and the US economy are supposed to be active, and so on. Interest rates are supposed to rise, so yes, it's possible.

[00:50:58]But I think it's an initial reaction to give the markets hope, to show them how It rose, and people are buying again, and it's a hoop, and we're going, and then they go again, dragged back by the return, the negativity, and the decline.

[00:51:16]Good evening, Professor Ghaith. I think 4500 has become the price pivot for an inevitable downward movement.

[00:51:21]4496 is somewhat consolidating. Is it true that we will see 3800 in the coming months? This is what I personally said previously, that yes, we are not talking about today and tomorrow, but I think 3800 to 3500 is coming.

[00:51:36]Professor, do you expect the current decline today before closing? Well, the problem is betting on today without details seems difficult, but I still expect there will be major details over the weekend, and God knows best. Now 4513 has become the most important, yes, because prices broke it and stabilized below it. That's right. May God bless you, you are magnificent. Thank you, Emad and Ammar Al-Saqr Al-Jarh. Did the comments go down?

[00:52:07]Oh, where were we? This is about 35, but I didn't see where the comments went. Did the comments go down? This is about 35. A merchant ship and oil tankers are considered an indicator of an agreement, but I don't believe that, because this news was released and things are still complicated. I mean, the process of allowing the passage of tankers... America has been very slow in resuming strikes because the Strait of Hormuz is full, completely full. So I think they are trying to calm things down as much as possible, trying to allow a period of calm and communication, etc. The important thing is to get as many tankers and ships as possible out of the Strait of Hormuz. I think America is actually happy with the process of getting the ships out. You should work in politics or broadcasting as an economic commentator. God willing, why not, Professor Maz, regarding gold bullion? Even gold bullion... I don't think it's worth the risk. At least if I were the owner, the one with the money, I wouldn't buy at the current prices. It might be suitable, I could be wrong, but I still see it as potentially rising, but it's not worth risking it because there's a significant potential for it to fall later. I mean, 4500 if we say even for 3 is not for 3 and 500, we are talking about $500 to $700, meaning an additional 10% to 15%, so I think personally I would not buy, and you are free to take your own viewpoint, my dear doctor.

[00:53:51]If the markets remain at the 4513 level today, tell me, if the markets remain at the 4513 level, how do you expect the negative reaction at the opening? Honestly, Saad, the issue isn't about where it will close. Let it close at 4.550, 5.50, or 4.50.

[00:54:12]The matter depends on what happens over the weekend.

[00:54:16]Thank you, big guy. Thank you, Falcon of the Wilderness. Peace be upon you. Should I sell gold? We've already discussed it thoroughly.

[00:54:22]I always try to talk in great detail, and I always receive criticism for the detailed discussion so that everyone can form their own opinion, regardless of whether they agree or disagree with me. I have no problem with you disagreeing; the important thing is that we stand on solid ground, grounded in knowledge, logic, and reasons, and then form your opinion. Thank you so much for your great concern for the interests of your followers. Thank you, Emad. How much commission does Swissquote Bank charge for buying and selling physical gold, and what is the buying and selling mechanism? Honestly, my friend, for the physical details, contact Professor Yazan. Tell him I got his number from Ghaith during the live broadcast because, to be honest, I did n't go into the physical details myself. It's a very large amount, but I sat down with them and confirmed that they deliver gold, meaning they actually have real gold bars.

[00:55:27]I can pay the full value, which is actual ownership of the gold, and then leave it for a month, two months, or a year or two; they have no problem with that. So, I'd be storing my gold online, as far as I know. But let's say I'm not 100% sure about this information, but it's something around 1%, more or less, that includes the entire difference. So, the buy and sell price includes 1%. That's what I know about them. It's something around $40-45, but contact Mr. Yazan. You have nothing to lose. The guy is very gentlemanly and generous, like you. He's always open to discussion and always welcomes questions with an open mind. So contact him by phone or WhatsApp and ask him all your questions and inquiries. He'll answer them calmly and transparently. And you, let's say, will be happy that you dealt with him or worked with him. So save his number and contact him.

[00:56:28]All the news is probably just cover-up for a scam.

[00:56:31]So far, it seems, and God knows best, anything is possible. Yes, we hope for a landing tonight. Let's see. Professor, can you check if there's any news from five minutes ago? I haven't seen any news. I haven't seen any news, but let me see if there's any news I haven't actually seen.

[00:56:50]Let me see if there is.

[00:56:57]Okay, there's news from about eight minutes ago. Who's asking me about five minutes ago? Check if there's any news from five minutes ago. It was 11:07.

[00:57:07]Yes, approximately now. So, approximately five minutes ago.

[00:57:11]Yes, what exactly does the news say?

[00:57:19]Oh, Channel 12 News says Trump is frustrated and he's making a mess of things.

[00:57:36]Yes, and he may make a decision, let's say a decisive one, or a decisive action regarding Iran. This was said approximately five minutes ago.

[00:57:46]Now it's 11:13. What time exactly did the news come out? The news was released at approximately 11:03, about 10 minutes ago. The news was released perfectly, so we're on the same page. Yes, thank you from the bottom of my heart. 4513 was broken, and you're still talking about it? Yes. Peace, mercy, and blessings of God be upon you, Dr. Ghaith. The deals on the public channels are coming in very, very late, Doctor. Honestly, my dear, today there's no point in even that.

[00:58:16]Look, on Friday, the moment it's published on the premium channels, it's published on the public accounts. And in the screenshot I'm posting, the time is in the UAE. In the screenshot itself, the time I posted is in the UAE time. Compare it. On Friday, everything published on the premium channels is published on the public accounts. Then on Monday, if we have gold deals on the premium channels, we publish them. On Tuesday, if we have an oil deal on the premium channels, we publish it on the public accounts.

[00:58:46]On Wednesday, it's the Euro. On Thursday, it's the indices, and on Friday, all the details. So today, even on the premium channels, we didn't have anything, especially with these developments. I'm trying to reduce risks for traders in general, and certainly for the premium channels. I mean, let's say they always showed interest and demonstrated their commitment. Subscribing is about showing interest, about showing more love and belief in what's being offered, in the importance of what's being offered. So, they always have priority. I mean, with complete transparency, even on the premium channels, we didn't have any deals today, my friend.

[00:59:26]Thank you, Professor. Thank you, Emad. May God bless you and grant you and your loved ones continued health and well-being.

[00:59:31]I'm talking about Friday's deals. There weren't any deals today at all, my friend, not even on the premium channels. I have a sell order at 4.515. Honestly, Salman, the decision is yours. The risks are high. I mean, personally, I'm more inclined, 51%, to think it will go down, 49%, to think it will go up, but the risks are very, very, very high, and sometimes even unlimited. So, the decision is yours, my friend. Do you mean the market is very dangerous, going down or up? I mean, the market is very risky, so it's best to take a break, have a Kit Kat. Thank you, Alaa. We don't want you to stay in this situation, and we don't want you to be a broadcaster because... we don't want you to stay. Given this situation, we don't want you to be a broadcaster because we'll be deprived of your vast knowledge. May God protect you and keep you safe from all harm, sir. May God choose what is best for me.

[01:00:25]Look, I'm not asking for anything; let things unfold naturally. That's the best thing. For those who bought physical stocks at the 3000 level, do you advise taking profits and buying back at 3800? Honestly, Muhammad, I advised taking profits between 5600 and 5400, then 5200, then 5000, then 4800. I still see it heading towards 3800, and the decision is ultimately yours.

[01:00:54]Thank you from the bottom of my heart. How much time is left until the markets close? Currently, it's 11:15 UAE time. The time on your counter is currently 11:15. The market will close at 1:00, meaning there are about an hour and 45 minutes left. God willing, it will open higher. That's always the case, God willing.

[01:01:14]This is by the will of the Almighty, but for it to be higher, you need to have... Your reasons, please continue with the detailed explanation.

[01:01:22]Thank God, I now understand you without the trades. The updates and commentary on price levels have become an addiction, and thank God, I can now enter trades without you. The reason is the details. Please continue, Ashraf. Thank you very much for the words again. Honestly, this is what I want. I want us to reach a stage where, even today, one of the members present in the premium channels also contacted me. He said, "I'm at 4530. Should I buy or sell?" He said, "You didn't give me any trades." He said, "But I understood it to mean sell because you said if it doesn't go above it, and that's the pivot point." He said the same thing. He said, "I sold." So, honestly, I'm happy when people do this because the risks are higher than the regular trades we take. That's why I didn't participate in any trades today, neither in the premium channels nor did we post them in the public accounts. I'm happy when people are presenting, let's say, the details themselves. They're reading the whole idea and are able to make correct decisions, thank God, in the same way that I do. I mean, if I were sitting next to you You'll tell me, "You've pleased me, whispered to me, given me," so I would have told you in the same way you understood me. That's what's required. Thank you, big guy.

[01:02:36]Thank you, Falcon of Prey. You're always in touch, and you have all our thanks and appreciation. Thank you very much. By God, the broadcast has become addictive. Thank you, Falcon of Prey. Thank you all. Hello, Professor Ghaith. God willing, the King of Logic will be released, Professor Ghaith. Thank you, Makhariz.

[01:02:53]Professor Ghaith, how much leverage does it reach with Swissquote? The default BY is 1 to 100, and they have 1 to 400. The most beautiful person in analysis on social media. Thank you very much. Okay, let's make it the most beautiful person, but only on social media, without analysis.

[01:03:07]Let me appear cute like this. Thank you, Live Live.

[01:03:11]Doba, Ghaith, will gold go down or up this week? No, this is a lot of questions. May God increase your knowledge. Thank you for this valuable information. Thank you very much for your comments and for attending. Have a blessed Friday. Happy Eid to you all. Well, so as not to keep you any longer, we've passed the hour by a little. Have a happy weekend, and in advance, Happy Eid to you all. God willing, we will always meet again and again before reaching the blessed Eid al-Adha. With this, we have reached the end of the live broadcast. I ask God Almighty to grant you and us from His abundant grace and generosity a lawful, good, blessed, and multiplied provision, O Lord of the Worlds. Say Amen until we meet again, God willing, in future updates and videos. This was Ghaith Abu Hilal.

[01:04:10]I wish you continued success, and may you remain in God's care.