May 21 Natural Gas Analysis and Forecast

Ajouté : 2026-05-24

[00:00:04]Well, natural gas is swinging between gains and  losses on Thursday as traders react to the weekly natural gas storage report. The biggest  event today was the EIA storage report.

[00:00:15]Storage increased by 101 Bcf, which came in above  expectations near 96 Bcf and above the five-year average injection. That is bearish because it  confirms that supply remains comfortable for now and storage continues rebuilding at a healthy  pace. Total inventories are now roughly 7% above the five-year average. Despite the bearish  storage number, natural gas held near the $3 level instead of collapsing. That tells traders  the market is already looking ahead to stronger summer cooling demand. Weather models continue  showing expanding heat across the eastern and southern US, which could significantly increase  power burn over the next 1-2 weeks. LNG demand is temporarily weaker due to maintenance, but  structurally the trend remains bullish. Reuters reported today that feedgas flows to US LNG  terminals are near a 16-week low because of maintenance at facilities like Freeport  LNG, although Corpus Christi expansion and Golden Pass ramp-up continue supporting the  longer-term demand picture. Global fundamentals are also supportive. European and Asian gas prices  remain elevated because of ongoing geopolitical tensions and tighter LNG availability globally.  That keeps US LNG economically attractive and supports expectations for stronger exports later  this year. Overall, the market now appears stuck between two competing forces. Bearish near term:  strong storage injections and temporarily softer LNG feedgas demand. Bullish medium term: hotter  weather, rising electricity demand, expanding LNG export capacity, and expectations that storage  surpluses could shrink later this summer. From a market psychology standpoint, bulls probably  wanted a smaller storage build today. However, the fact that prices are still defending the $3  region suggests traders are not yet convinced that bearish supply conditions will dominate through  summer. Technically and fundamentally, the next few EIA reports will become extremely important.  If hotter weather starts reducing injections toward or below normal levels, the market may  quickly shift back toward pricing a tighter winter storage outlook. Meanwhile, it looks like the  EIA has been tuning in to my videos - they have nudged today's outlook a bit higher for summer  and trimmed winter expectations. Funny timing, considering I recently pointed out how a potential  Super El Ni o could start reshaping price dynamics later this year. From a technical perspective,  natural gas is still struggling to break decisively above the $3.05 resistance zone, which  continues to act as a key short-term ceiling for price action. A sustained move and close above  $3.05 would likely confirm bullish momentum and open the path toward the next resistance area  around $3.20-$3.25. On the downside, a failure to hold the $3 level would signal weakening momentum  and could trigger a pullback toward the 50-day moving average near $2.91. If selling pressure  accelerates and price breaks below the 50-day MA, the next meaningful support zone would be around  $2.80, although in my view this remains a less likely scenario at the moment. If you're looking  for a more detailed breakdown of the market, consider joining the channel. Members get  early access to new videos, so you can see the analysis before everyone else. Thanks for  being here, see you in the next update.