The Bulls Are Back. Is This The Reversal? My Full Thoughts On XRP, BTC and ETH

[00:00:00]Hey guys, how are we doing? Crypto Insight UK here bringing you back another YouTube video. So, we've got so much to talk about today and I'm sorry that I haven't been uh posting the last few days. I've been away and like the time zones were all all over the place and I realized it wasn't getting out of many people's algorithms because of the times I was posting and I was like, well, I'm away. Let's have a few days off and let's come back to it. But in these few days, so much has been going on. Um, so this is probably going to be a long video. I'm going to talk about XRP. going to talk about price action of uh crypto generally. Going to talk about Bitcoin, ETH, uh XRP dominance if we get round to that in the end if I have enough time. I'm also going to talk about liquidity. Going to talk about open interest and a few other things.

[00:00:38]But yeah, to start with, I'm a bit jetlagged. So, if I don't get everything across in this video, I'll touch on the extra stuff tomorrow. Um because as I said, my mind's all over the place. I traveled for like 30 hours yesterday.

[00:00:50]Don't even go there. canceled flight, delayed, missed connections, rebook connections, those connections, that connection got missed, etc., etc., but we're back and we're locked in. So, that's all that matters right now.

[00:01:02]Anyway, to start with, I just wanted to quickly cover a little bit of news. Um, as I've been away, a few things have happened. So, yesterday, um, Mark Moss, Britishbacked Bitcoin Treasury company, voted to sell all of its Bitcoin. Um, so obviously they're going to sell it's only 668 Bitcoin. It's not tons, but that's one thing. Uh Jack Maler step down of 21 Capital um which was his like Bitcoin treasury company as well.

[00:01:29]Someone posted in in the reply to Jack Mal is like 99% draw down in value and then you step down the CEO. Um I thought this was interesting for Al Pal. He's talking about AI. Um he's been talking about this a lot and and crypto. But I thought this phrase Cambrian explosion was interesting because what Chris Lassen and Brad Garlinghouse used to say all the time back in the day about like Ripple and XRP. Um I think Oh, this is another one. Russia basically passed well not passed a bill yesterday got passed through their equivalent of like government and now it needs to be signed by Putin. Um we've got what else did I want to cover?

[00:02:08]Oh yeah, the Clarity Act was the last thing. I was actually just looking at Clarity Act on Poly Market then. Um even though there's a lot of positive verbiage coming out about the Clarity Act, it does seem that um we haven't yet got any decision. It's still um 41% chance of passing as per Poly Market.

[00:02:28]And I know this isn't like an official source, but when people are putting the money where their mouth is, normally gives you an idea of exactly what is to come. So there's still less than a 50% chance that the clarity act passes, although we're getting a lot of positive verbiage at the minute. So yeah, that was the main things I wanted to cover in terms of news. Um, and now let's get to some price action. So it's been exciting the last few days. And again, before I get into this, there's two sides to this discussion. One side is since like April, February, April time, I've been saying, look, buy spot. Let's get on the weekly first. I've been saying by spot.

[00:03:00]If you guys go back to my February, April videos when we're in this area with this week down, I said, "Look, um, and I was comparing it to like other lows, I was comparing to this low specifically here, and I was saying, look, I think we're in like this sort of period. And even if we do get a further draw down from the lows, there's not going to be more than like a 10 or 15% draw down. Uh, that's like 10% from the absolute low of this wick." So, I was like, this is the best time to be like accumulating spot because there's also a chance that we could just not set a lower low and go higher. That's what I was saying in this area here. And now what what's happened since then? Let me just take my drawings off for a second so it's a bit more clear. Look, we've so far come down another 3%. Um, so this area still would have been and still would be just as good an area to accumulate spot as we're in now.

[00:03:47]Basically what I've been saying the whole time we've been down here. Um, and since we've been down here, we've got that bullish divergence. We've wicked the lows of this wick. Uh, Bitcoin is potentially looking to cross bullish on the weekly RSI. etc., etc. Like, it looks pretty positive so far. However, it's so far like I just want to get this into I want to be super clear with this and like I am not a bear. Like, I've been saying to buy since February um February, March. I still think that. But right here is going to be Bitcoin and crypto's most likely area to reverse.

[00:04:18]Let me just put that out there to be absolutely honest with you guys. Most likely area to reverse in the short term. Now, do I think we're going to go significantly lower? No. Absolutely no.

[00:04:28]Uh, do I think we're going to get to like 40k? No, I don't think so. Um, do I think there could be another wick of the lows slash could we retest the lows?

[00:04:35]Yes, I think that's very possible if not likely. Um, because the when you get the lows like this, it's it's trying to people are going to get in long. They think they've caught the low and sentiment starting to pick up a little bit here. I'm starting to see everyone calling for the lows.

[00:04:51]People are going to get whipped out of positions and timebased capitulation also could be a thing. Do I know when the low is going to come in? Do I think it's going to be Q3, Q4? No, I actually don't think that either. I think we could have like a month or two here. Um like say say if we get the low maybe the low's already in, maybe we could just move around like this for a little bit.

[00:05:09]I'm going to get into some like deeper TA than this. I'm just suggesting some thoughts here before we get into some deeper TA. Like are we going to sweep this liquidity here close? Like this is this is a gap really here like all this open candle essentially on the weekly.

[00:05:21]We're going to come down to that 59K level and bounce. Um, I don't know.

[00:05:25]Something along these lines looks quite likely. But why is this the most likely area for reversal? Well, look, Bitcoin weekly hasn't managed to close a weekly candle yet, uh, above where we were closing at our lows. So, we're basically hitting our head on resistance here still for Bitcoin weekly as it stands, which was our key support before we bounced. And again, look, throughout this whole move down so far, we've been making lower highs, lower highs, lower highs, and potentially a lower high here. Obviously, there's nothing confirmed yet. Uh, and lower lows, lower lows, and lower lows. What you can notice is two things. One thing is that that is a clear trend. The other thing is that the trend is getting weaker on each bounce down. And that's what I'm trying to suggest here. Like, if we do bounce down here, I don't suggest that the bounce down is going to be significant. People are saying 40k, whatever. I don't think that's going to happen. Like, clearly the strength of the trend is is diminishing here. like this um and this and this like you can see the lines are significant they're becoming less and less and less each time that's essentially what I'm saying and that means the strength the trend is diminishing bears are starting to lose momentum does that mean momentum's gone uh it doesn't mean that it's the bottom another indicator that bears would lose momentum is the bullish divergence in terms of the RSI in price meaning that relative strength index is basically a momentum indicator it's saying that momentum to the upside is starting to come and uh price is still well downtrending as I've just shown you with the lower highs. So that's that's the weekly and then we get into the lower time frame stuff. Let's get into the daily. That's a 3-day. Let me click that. It's just as relevant. We can get back to the 3-day in a second to be fair. Um one thing I will say is the first the first real talking point here is on the daily Bitcoin looks a little bit different to everything else. And why is that? Let me just get rid of this line now. Well, on the daily, Bitcoin actually managed to close yesterday above this daily close. So, Bitcoin could s like could be suggesting here that we might have a little bit of a rally to come maybe up towards that 70kish level. This is more of like a fair value area that I'd say like look 72K uh could mark a local high before a pullback. I I don't know necessarily if we get that or not because I'm also going to suggest look here as I wrote about in the newsletter there's liquidity and there's this fair value gap here I think that we'll probably back test um and that could make if we come down to that level look if we do this I'm going to show you and these are just thought processes I didn't mean to press that these are just thought processes they're they're working thesis it's not uh it's not an exact art here we could see something like thisish and then that would give us like an inverse head and shoulders bottom here. And I think that would be where you go long uh for Bitcoin.

[00:08:10]You'd have to obviously consider that you could come down and back test, potentially make a lower low there just to really like mess with everyone. If you look at the daily RSI, um we're getting up towards the overbought area and we haven't really done anything yet.

[00:08:24]I wouldn't say this is impulsive or trending price action. I'd say this is still just like choppy corrective stuff.

[00:08:30]If I take us down to like the other thing to remember here is though if we start to get these key breaks of resistance levels like this white line here and we start to put in some big green candles that's when things can change. So you get this choppy corrective price action in ranges like it's this is all a range but then as soon as you do get a range break so you could suggest that that's the range break here. We then come back and back test and you see these booming uh green candles. That's essentially what we're looking for. [snorts] Similar to the lows here look we chop around. Um this is 2022. We chop around near the lows.

[00:09:03]We come back. We back test. Uh we close those fair value gaps. Look there. If you see this wick here, close this fair value gap in this candle. Chop about.

[00:09:11]Chop about. And then boom. This is when you can start to get excited. These big daily green candles. Uh we not only back test uh the fair value gap above us, we then actually start to break above that.

[00:09:22]Then we find support. We break down.

[00:09:24]Then look at these candles again. Okay, this is when you can start to think this is it. This is this is now the the markets changing in momentum. The big green the big candles are to the upside not to the down. Then this is all corrective.

[00:09:37]Another try do manage to make new highs.

[00:09:42]We don't set new lows and then again corrective corrective or or chopping around. Look accumulation and accumulation. Boom big green candles come again. Then we then we chop around again and then boom big green candles come again. uh similar to the the the market before that like I I also want to argue that I think that last bull market and this bare market aren't what we've seen in in regular crypto um price action regular crypto markets. If we look at back at the 2018 2019 cycle I even think this is kind of muted and we're getting more muted each cycle so far. I think this is going to change as well but this is again another discussion for another day. But look, corrective, corrective, corrective.

[00:10:20]Boom, big candle. And then we start to trend up. And then we have the C19 black swan. Bang. Come down. We don't set a new low though. We chop back up to the highs. Corrective, corrective, and then boom. And we really expand out of that zone. Okay, this 2017 sort of cycle was um the most impressive though. Like obviously there's less liquidity, so things price does wick more and more, but when we start to trend, it's just successions of of green candles over and over. Um, and that's what we're looking for. We're looking for like let's go back to where we are like because what you can see is this.

[00:10:56]So, we boom up and then you can see where the trend changes in in this area and and I got this wrong. I got this wrong uh at the time. I we saw a downtrend here. This obviously started in in October. The October the 10th liquidation happened. We then pushed down and then we consolidated here and I was like, "Okay, cool. That's probably just overflow from like an issue that we had." And then again, this is like if you invert this chart, you can see that this would be classed as those impulsive candles. Consolidation impulsive candles, consolidation, impulsive candles, but then we haven't we've only just wick the highs. So, I think we're very close to, if not at the lows because that was inverted then. So, what I'm saying is look, you've got these like aggressive price candles to the downside, aggressive price candles to the downside, consolidation, aggressive price candles to the downside. Then I'd say this is consolidation again when we or if we get significant breaks and start to see big green candles then you can start to confirm the bottom is in I started to say look I think the bottom's in around here and we can discuss as and why about that another time but let's just continue with the discussion that I'm having here we've [snorts] got liquidity building up uh on this white line here this where all these stop losses get are creating higher lows and that is a discussion to say look we could go higher from here because we are making higher lows uh in this sense and we have just wicked the highs and that's why I say bitcoin is different to the others because ETH and XRP that I'm going to get on to in a second doesn't actually look exactly like this. So, long story short, do I think that the lows are in necessarily?

[00:12:20]I think we could still and probably most likely do still have a back test of this area. Um, create a significant higher low here. Um, or if we wick the lows, um, we could just see like a quick wick and get out of there. And again, as I said, I think it's different for Bitcoin than others. So, that's my first thought process and discussion, and I hope that makes sense to you guys here.

[00:12:41]Next, we're going to look at ETH. Like, ETH is something I've been discussing for a little while. I think that ETH comes back to back test this area here.

[00:12:47]Um, I did think that this would happen from a bit of a lower a lower price action, like lower prices, sorry.

[00:12:52][snorts] But we haven't actually got that yet.

[00:12:54]And then break us down to the 4 hour.

[00:12:56]Actually, sorry. I'll quickly just touch back to Bitcoin on the 4 hour. Look, Bitcoin's 4 hour didn't manage to break above um the highs. Look, the Bitcoin highs would be there. Um, we got right back to the overbought area on the 4 hour that has been acting as resistance.

[00:13:09]When we hit this overbought area on the 4 hour, Bitcoin has pulled back every time. We're back there now and we're starting to get that pull back. So, that's another thing to take into consideration. Low time frame when we're hitting these overbought areas, um, we're pulling back. Whereas, when we're in like a trending market and you hit the overbought area, you really start to rip to the upside. And I'll show you an example, uh, here. So you get to the 4hour overbought area for Bitcoin for example [snorts] and you that's when you start to have these like bigger moves in the in an uptrend boom we move up that doesn't look like loads but it is quite an significant move look if I zoom into these time periods hit the overbought area here and that's when it expands quite a lot in a short space of time you start to get these trending markets it shows that like there's an aggression in the market 6% move when we again hit the overbought area here boom we really expand So when we there, we we just absolutely send it and you you could pretty much say that we send it all the way to here. Um like that's 42% on the 4hour. Similar sort of story like when we're in that uptrend, it just starts to really get aggressive and move higher when we hit those overbought areas. It's not the case as of right now. We're hitting or touching those overbought areas and that's marking the high. So you could say um the bulls aren't yet in control because remember RSI is just a momentum indicator. So when we get hot on momentum um that means that we can we can run fast. Similar for story for ETH here. Uh ETH is making lower highs on the 4hour RSI was making higher highs in price action. This is a bearish divergence. Uh I do think that ETH comes down to back test these areas here potentially sweeps the lows again on the high time frames. it doesn't mean this isn't a good area to accumulate. If you start to get significant breaks of um these levels like this this level here, like the $2,000ish dollar level for ETH, you could start to put in those big green candles. And then if you couple that with high time frame um analysis, you can say, look, the bottom's probably in. We're now getting those high time frame candles. This is how close we are in my opinion to a reversal in the markets generally. Until we get that, I still think that a pullback is a very possible outcome here. Um there's a lot of drawings on this screen right now. So I'm just going to bin them for a second and just show you. Look, um ETH basically needs to continue to hold this trend. Um if we start to break this white line to the downside, I think that white box that we have drawn in here is the most likely area of revisit. Maybe we wick the lows because there is some liquidity there. Maybe not. If Bitcoin does that inverse head and shoulders pattern that I've suggested, maybe this is the area to be buying ETH. That will I will discuss that when and as and when we get there. Okay, similar story with XRP. Now, there's a few things to discuss here for XRP. The same thing every single time on the 4 hour, we get to that overbought section. Uh, it does seem to be selling off and that would suggest to me that we're still in this like bearish consolidation sort of period. Uh, 4hour overbought again, sold off, 4hour overbought again here. Um, and each time we're doing this, even though I'm going to show you, I've got two conflicting discussions here. Even each time we do this, we are creating lower highs. lower high, lower high, lower like high, lower high, lower high, etc. You get the point. But we have actually created a higher low here. So, this could be a discussion to say that we similarly to what I think could happen with Bitcoin. If I can just get a chart with less drawings on it. Um, I'll take that off for now cuz we wrote about that in the newsletter. But there is a discussion to say low, low, low.

[00:16:42]This could be an inverse head and shoulders appearing here. This is what I'm saying at the lows. This could be what Bitcoin is looking to do. Maybe XRP is slightly leading, but again, I don't think we're quite uh in the place to to have a confirmation on this yet. There is discussion for that though. There's another two discussions that I've got here. And I said that Bitcoin looks a bit different to other tokens because let's have a look. Why did I say that?

[00:17:05]XRP's daily. Although you saw Bitcoin's daily close above uh the recent highs, it would be closing above here if it was XRP. XRP has retouched that level and hasn't managed to close above that yet.

[00:17:18]Um, so that's why I said Bitcoin looks a little bit different. However, one thing that XRP has done in the last few days is break this low time frame downtrend and it also has managed to reclaim that wick from February the 6th, 2026. So, they're definite positives there for XRP and again can communicate that the trend is losing or the momentum of this trend to the downside is losing strength. So these are all things to take into consideration. It's not a perfect discussion. It never is in technical analysis. If it was super clear and obvious, then everyone would take the same trade. Okay, it this is all perception. It's all psychology and it's all like your own thought processes on what you think could happen here. So they're the technical discussions that I'm having at the minute. They're the things I'm thinking about. I still think that this white box is the best area to long or if we get a back test of this white line.

[00:18:06]Again, we don't have to necessarily set lower lows here anymore. Um, as I said, Bitcoin might not set a lower low. It might just test that area, make an invest head and shoulders bottom and then start to move out because we have got the high time frame basically telling us that momentum and the trend is going if not finished to the downside and upside is what we should be looking for. But are we still are we quite there yet? Again, let's discuss uh on let's look at ETH in terms of liquidity. ETH is touching this light area that we capitulated from to take the liquidity to the downside. We're back at that level now on the daily time frame. Do we sweep this liquidity below us for ETH? Do we close this fair value gap? Where do I think the best um risk-to-reward entries would be for ETH?

[00:18:50]I'm looking at like that would be a nice order block to be bidding there for ETH if we do get a push down to that area. I think it's a decent argument to be short here to that area and to and with a really tight stop loss because you can essentially say look as long as we don't close above uh this white line then the most likely um discussion is that we come down to back test these lows you could probably put your stop loss up here like say $2660 and aim for that 1,600. Now there is liquidity above us and as I said if we start start to get break out of these um of this here we do something like this then we could really get those aggressive candles when we start to break through that liquidity but until then you have to you have to discuss and you have to think okay downside is probably just as likely as up in my opinion here so let's look at XRP XRP is more uh of a discussion here in my opinion XRP unlike ETH has not cleared this downside liquidity that that that ETH and Bitcoin both have. So, if we just go back to ETH again quickly. So, you look at this downside liquidity here for XRP at a dollar. This is why I've been screaming about this for so long because Bitcoin's taken this downside liquidity. The this the significant liquidity for Bitcoin to the downside has been swept like this was swept back in like January and there is some liquidity building to the downside again here for Bitcoin. But the majority of the red liquidity is done and gone and you're starting to see liquidity build above us at 83. Yes, you are seeing some build at 47, but there's always some liquidity that gets left behind. If we look at ETH, um ETH liquidity on the daily, we swept the that red liquidity.

[00:20:28]This will be that that wick that we discussed and then uh on the in February and then ETH's already swept that liquidity at 1,600. So whether ETH has to set a lower low from here, I don't know. Um but XRP has not yet done this.

[00:20:43]Um this is the wick look from from uh where's the wick? Sorry. This is the wick sorry from February. We we have swept that wick but the majority of the liquidity was a bit lower than that on XRP. It was down here at a dollar that nice whole $1 level. So whether we had to sweep that liquidity first or not, I don't know. I would presume yes. And it would also make things a lot easier if we do sweep that because then whatever trend we start to get into now, I can say look, I think the bottom's in. Um we've only got upside to go. If we go to Vevel, which is where we can look at open interest and we can look at funding. We can discuss a few other things here for XRP. What you want to be seeing at the lows are negative um negative funding and you want to see really an increase in open interest on negative funding. That means people uh more people are shorting than they are long. And you want to see that coupled with aggressive spot volume because the spot volume is essentially saying these are coins that are trading hands and spot people buying actual tokens rather than buying on leverage. Uh this can this can be like this this is an easy way to identify accumulation at lows.

[00:21:50]What have we got in the last um in this last push up here where we've been trading really since the lows? We've got quite an aggressive rise in open interest. I've been explaining this in the newsletter and uh on X. Um this is a increase of like 16% from the lows. Uh in terms of coins open interest and then from the dollar perspective we've got an increase of 11%. Um it's significant capital. It's like 40 $74 million extra in open interest and not a ton of spot volume and all in positive funding. So basically suggesting that more people are coming in long here than they are short and that could be something that's driving the price up. This can obviously lead to uh a long squeeze meaning that like people who are in long all these long people can get liquidated um because there's just basically extra open interest that's come in since the lows. So that's another thing that I'm watching there for XRP. I'm not here sound trying to be bullish. I don't think we are uh sorry I'm not here trying to be bearish. I don't think we are bearish. I just think that we're chopping around at the lows and I think that people who are trying to get aggressively long, which I think a lot of people say are miserable about price action. People are starting to post bullish. Everyone's like, "Fuck it. It's time to go long. Let's push all our money in right now. It's ready. We're going to go." Those are the people that are going to get wiped here. Like, they think they've been patient. They're like, "Yes, I've waited all this time.

[00:23:15]Now I'm in on my position. It's bloody perfect. I've nailed it and we're going to go to new highs and then they're going to get whipped out of their positions." And that's probably when you want to be getting involved. I don't know what the narrative might be. As I've discussed for a long time in the newsletter, I think there's a lot of like macro issues right now. We've got the US dollar against the yen. Let's just look at that.

[00:23:35][cough and clears throat] Sorry, I'm trying to zoom through it while I'm speaking quickly cuz otherwise I'm just going to be here for forever making this video. We've got this uh Japanese yen against or dollar against the yen at 40-year resistance right now. said, "Look, if this breaks out to the upside, there will be repercussions repercussions in the markets, whether that's Japan selling treasuries to buy back the yen. Um whether it's something to do with China and and exports as the yen becomes cheaper. Um and then their competition or competitive rates with China, uh obviously get they get more competitive. Um China also have a growth problem. The US want to weaken the DX weaken the dollar because they're trying to onshore as well. And the DXY is also um trying to push up above this yearly high. And you're also seeing bonds push up. Um so are bonds going to break out here? This is 10-year treasuries on the weekly. Like I've been discussing this as well. I don't know. I can't give you the answers to these questions. But what I can say all of these issues are answered by liquidity and injections of money. If um or specifically dollars if any of these start to break, if they start to inject dollars into the yen um they can say for example give the Japanese government dollars on some sort of swap line where they can sell the dollars to buy back the yen, strengthen the yen and that weakens the DXY and they probably need to do that in coordination with China as well because China want the same sort of growth prospect and they don't want the their yuan Chinese raimi or yuan however you want to discuss it to weaken too much against the yen. and either they don't want Japan to be selling down on US treasuries. So that could be another way they do it. So something along those lines I think it's highly possible. Um I don't exactly know what happens there.

[00:25:17]Uh at the same time got the Middle East conflict restart and we've had this bounce in oil. This is where I would have closed my long. Whether we continue higher or not from here, I really don't know. This this would have been the trade that I I would have taken. I discussed this before we even hit these lows. I discussed it from about uh here in June. And I said, "Look, we're probably going to close that gap and then we'll probably close this gap to the upside." From here, I don't know. It looks like we're about to get a potential bullish cross on the weekly.

[00:25:40]Maybe oil goes higher. We've seen uh the Houthies start to bomb Saudi potentially closing the Red Sea. And so the other side, there's two strips of like sea that go down either side of like the Middle East, the Saudi UAE, man sort of like I don't know what you want to call it, like bottom. There's two strips that that transmit oil through there. One's a straight of Hammoo, one's like the Red Sea that goes up to Egypt. I think it's like G of Persia or something. I don't know what exactly what that sea is called, but the Houthies are now bombing from um from Africa into Saudi and saying they're going to close that sea.

[00:26:16]Um and then the obviously the straight of Hammud is having issues as well. So is this going to apply more pressure to the oil markets? I don't know. Okay. I can't predict global conflict, but there are catalysts out there for more scare in the markets. And I think that there is a potential to have a scare and then I think that scare will be solved with a massive liquidity injection. Now, as and when or if any of these things happen, I really don't know. I'm just trying to be as logical as possible. And I also don't see the whole picture um because I'm just a self-taught analyst and I only really look at my own analysis so I don't get too involved in what everyone else is doing. So with all those things being said, what what's my outcome? What do I think? I think if you're buying spot, these are great areas to be buying spot. I said that from February. Uh we're we're pretty much at February price action now. So well done if you've been accumulating because all of a sudden everyone thinks we're bullish. Do I think we probably have one more downside push to come? Yes. Does it set a new low in Bitcoin?

[00:27:23]50/50. Probably 6040 that we don't. But I do think we probably come down to at least that 60kish level. ETH, do we set a new low? Again, I don't know. Most likely we come down to 1500 or 1600ish dollars. XRP, I would say I'm 6040 that we do set a new low. I think it would be the nicest thing to sweep the dollar level, not for sentiment or anything like that, but just because we have that liquidity that I've discussed here and I want to see that gone so we can all just sit around and say, look, there's nothing left to the downside. Let's get going again though for XRP. Um, we haven't yet seen that weekly bullish divergence here for XRP because we got a lower low in price action. Although saying this, if you look at XRP, every time, as I've discussed, every time we've hit the oversold area on the RSI, the RSI has never actually gone lower than that. So, the bottom is very close, if not in for XRP. Whether we get a wick down into these areas or not on a panic or something like that. Again, I don't know. I said in the newsletter that this was the area I'd be accumulating. This was the area Judge Torres said that XRP was not a security. That's where we found resistance. Um, it's like that 92 cent level. So, I think that would be support there. There's obviously a discretion that we could wick into this order block here if we have a real like big liquidity scare of some sort. Do I think that's going to happen? I honestly don't think so. Do I think it's impossible? No. I think it's very possible, but I think that this this is probably the bottom, this 91 level that would get rid of all of this downside liquidity pretty much.

[00:28:59]Um and then we can just look at the upside and we can just say look what's left uh only upside price only upside liquidity. This is probably where we start to march after we wick that to the downside. Okay. I really hope that you understand what I'm discussing here. And I look I could be completely wrong. The bottom could be in. And if I am, I'm completely wrong on my low time frame thesis, but I've been saying to buy the lows since February anyway. This isn't me playing both sides of the spectrum.

[00:29:26]This is me saying my majority of my thought process is to buy these prices if you buy in spot. If you want to be dollar cost average and just keep pushing it in now. Um and then I think we're going to be significantly higher in 6 months to a year's time. That's how I want to sum this video up. In the low time frame, I do think we come down for the reasons I've discussed. We've got leverage to flush. We need to make more of a bottoming pattern. Um and everyone's all of a sudden thinks that bottoms in and we're about to march much higher.

[00:29:58]I've been saying I've been thinking the bottom was in for a while. Whether I'm again whether I'm right or wrong with that, I don't know. Like not the bottom necessarily, but very close to um 10 to 15% away from the bottom like I said for Bitcoin from this wick. Um and so far we've only 3% lower. So whether we get the 10 to 15% that we did in the 2022 cycle or not, I don't know. Again, I wouldn't be I wouldn't be gambling my portfolio on it. I'm 95% spot. So whether we come down or not isn't that important to me. I am low time frame thinking that we do come down. I do have bids uh below a dollar for XRP.

[00:30:36]I would prefer they get filled than not because then I'm completely exposed and I'm ready to just ride whatever happens next. Okay, that's essentially how I'm looking at everything. Nothing has really changed in my perspective. We just had some updated price action to start getting more bullish. You want to see XRP starting to close daily candles with this 118. you can then say we've got a confirmed trend break because at the minute again we still have these lower highs or the succession of lower highs. Similarly for Bitcoin, you want to be starting to close weekly above where we are right now. Realistically, you want to see weekly closes above that 67,300.

[00:31:11]And then again, before you can really confirm bullish price action to make a higher low uh to make a higher high, sorry, you need to be closing above 85K or above that 94K. But then by the time you're back up there, you've missed a major a lot of the move anyway. So I'm saying look, buy spot because there is a chance that we start to reverse from here. If you if you are just waiting with like say 10 20% of your portfolio, I think that the 59k level 50 60k levelish area is is where I'd be starting to push that into the markets.

[00:31:40]If Bitcoin hits that, I'd be probably pushing that into your favorite alts. If you look at other alts, I think hype looks like it's ready to break down. If hype breaks, if hype closes the weekly here or below, I think hype could probably come um back down towards maybe $28, maybe not as low as that. Uh maybe as $54 as support as well. Um and then you've got this fair value gap here. You could say look, it sort of closed that 46. But I think that again, hype is another thing that looks like it could come a bit lower and it's been one of the leaders so far. I was going to look at Sooie was something that I wanted to discuss with you guys. Where are we? A lot of people like Sooie. Suie hasn't wicked its October the 10th wick out yet. Still struggling to regain the wick that we've been discussing from February. Trading below that again though. Um we've got this bullish um weekly divergence on the RSI. But price action hasn't found any strength here either and we've got diminishing volume at the lows. It's another thing to be looking at. So a lot of people are starting to get excited but it's a little bit early. Um I don't think there's any confirmation yet. I think XRP dominance is so compressed here. Sorry, I'm I'm jumping all over the place. We're starting to get that bullish flip-flopping on the weekly RSI.

[00:32:56]Uh but we're still consolidating in this like descending wedge pattern. If we get a breakout to the upside, significant close, let's say above 3.4%, then we can get more excited. But until then, we could still have a few weeks of for God's sake, why do I keep pressing that? still have a few weeks of I've done it again. My bad.

[00:33:18]We could still have a few weeks of this.

[00:33:20]Look, it could still go on until just into September before we make a decision one way or another.

[00:33:27]So, XRP ETH is another one like we got right to the top of this range that I was discussing and now look, we're right at the bottom. So whether ETH outperforms a little bit here and XRP wicks below this range. Um again similarly I'm not 100% sure on the weekly though it could be looking at a little bit of a breakdown. But maybe this is the wick. Maybe this is the breakdown uh where we could start to get more actively bullish here when we start to sweep the bottom of that range and then start to close back inside. If we look on the daily, let's have a little look.

[00:33:59]We're still closing within the range on the daily. um and we hit that massively overbought area and these overbought areas again have been marking the lows.

[00:34:06]So essentially what I'm saying is I think there's going to be a little bit more chop. Um I think it's a good time to DCA and I think if we do get these lower prices that's when you push the last 10 to 20% of your portfolio in. If you playing similarly to me um the thought processes that I have been accumulating like I said since like February I didn't sell much anyway because I got the top wrong. I didn't think that we were topping yet. And we can discuss that in another episode. But if you go and read my newsletter, I think I published it back in April. I discussed that all this area is essentially consolidation. We haven't seen many altcoins break to new alltime highs and I do think that they will. Um I think we're [clears throat] just basically ranging for a lot of altcoins and the range has been going on for years. Uh so that's where I am. Hope all of this makes sense. I'm not trying to come out here and and crush anyone's dreams. I want things to be uh I want things to be positive for everybody. I want to be back on the bull train. I am bullish. I just think that look on the low time frame. Look at XRP's 4 hour for example. Every time we hit this overbought area on the 4 hour, we pull back and we've just hit it again as everyone's getting super bullish.

[00:35:17]Whether that changes now or not, I don't know. But what you can say is every time we've done that since the highs like since May, we've just pulled back and we've done it again. And so I expect a pullback. That that's it. That's full stop. I'm not I can't get any more deep into it than that. And this is the low time frame stuff. Just looking at choppy price action. High time frame. Could the bottom be in? The answer is yes. Um so yeah, I hope that makes sense to everyone. I hope you enjoyed the video.

[00:35:48]If you did, please hit the like button, subscribe button, and share with a friend. If you want to trade in any leverage, I've got a link to WEX and MEX in the description of this video. If you want to listen to my macro thoughts, um, you can check out my newsletter at the weekly insight.substack.com.

[00:36:02]Um, as always, nothing I say is financial advice, but I do hope you guys enjoyed. Peace up. A town downs crypto insight UK would