WHAT JUST HAPPENED TO BITCOIN!?

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Bitcoin just collapsed from $78,000 down to $75,700 on a single 10minute candle. And the reason behind it is going to shock you.

[00:00:12]All right, this is not clickbait. All right, but before we get into that, we need to zoom right out because the macro picture is looking to be a little more uncomfortably familiar. All right, the weekly Bitcoin chart is doing something that it has not done in years. and Bitcoin dominance is sitting right under a line that has been there since 2019.

[00:00:35]All right, so let's get into this. This is the first chart and this is the one that should be on every investor's screen right now. It is the current US CPI print overlaid against the 1970s CPI path. Red is now, green is then, and the tracking is borderline ridiculous. All right, this current CPI sits at 3.8%. 8% as of April 30th. That's like pretty much government CPI. We know the truth.

[00:01:03]But back in the 70s, at the same point in the cycle, CPI was at 5.8% and climbing. Both curves came off the same 2022 spike. Both rolled over into the same disinflation, and now both are quietly curling back up again. In the 1970s, that little reaceleration is exactly where the second wave kicked off and CPI ran from 3% all the way to nearly 15% by 1980. All right, this is the part where the Fed does not want to talk about. All right, they declared victory on inflation 18 months ago. They cut rates. They told you it was transitory and that all was contained.

[00:01:54]And now, same exact thing. If this keeps holding, the next 2 years will not bring the soft landing they've told you about.

[00:02:04]All right, so let's look at the Bitcoin weekly chart going all the way back to 2015 with the 200E simple moving average plotted as that green curve underneath.

[00:02:16]Uh price right now is at $75,747.

[00:02:22]The 200 week sits at $61,637.

[00:02:28]Here is the pattern. Every single major draw down Bitcoin has had has touched this line at least once. Okay? So, the 2015 touched it. The 2018 smashed through it and then reclaimed. 2020 COVID crash touched it. 2022 touched it.

[00:02:47]Four for four. All right. The 200W week SMA is the magnet that pulls price into the deepest part of every cycle. We are currently 23% above it. Bitcoin topped out around $124,000 and we have already given back roughly 40% from the high. The structure on the weekly is unmistakable. Lower high, lower low, momentum rolling. If the historical pattern holds, this draw down is not finished until we get at least a wick into the low $60,000 range. All right, that's if we match the pattern, so be cautious either way. All right, before we move on, here's something new.

[00:03:32]All right, this is our own Satoshi thermometer indicator which scores where we are in the Bitcoin cycle and when is the best time to adjust your dynamic DCA available now for our members at learningcrypto.com. So check that out.

[00:03:49]So today's reading is 24 which is cool.

[00:03:54]The model is calling this a favorable zone for an increased DCA allocation with a DCA multiplier of 2.33 times your baseline. If you want to see the historical figures on the indicator and how they line up with Bitcoin's price, you can do it at learningcrypto.com right now. Quick one before we get to the end. This is the Bitcoin dominance on the weekly. Dominance is sitting at 60.51%.

[00:04:24]And there is a descending trend line drawn from the 2019 highs that has now been intact for over 6 years. Every time dominance has rallied into it, it has gotten rejected. 2021 rejected. The recent rally up to 67% last summer rejected. We spoke about this a few weeks back. This is just a reminder that every single alt cycle has been kicked off by exactly a move where Bitcoin touches and bounces from that line. A final dominant squeeze into the trend line, a rejection, and then capital floods out of Bitcoin into the rest of the market. We are not there yet. If anything, the current setup where Bitcoin is weakening but dominance is not breaking down suggests we get one more leg of Bitcoin outperformance to the downside before alts find their footing. Be patient. The trigger has not been fired. Now, let's talk about the big one. This morning at 10:30 a.m.

[00:05:31]Eastern, somebody put through a $1.29 29 billion block trade on Black Rockck's IBIT in the dark pool. One print, $4316 a share. All right. Bigger than IBIT's entire average daily volume. The biggest institutional Bitcoin ETF transaction on record. And look at what Bitcoin did in the same window. This is the 10-minute chart. Right at 10:30, that yellow circle price was holding at $77,800.

[00:06:07]Then the block hits. The next candle is full red engulfing bar straight down to $76,800.

[00:06:16]From there, it has bled all day to $75,940.

[00:06:21]That is not retail panic. Okay, get that straight. That is a single counterparty unwinding size and the market is wearing it. So now two things to be very careful about. One, darkpool's prints are not always pure cells. They can be a transfer of positions from one institution to another. Two big players shaking hands off exchanges. We will know within like 48 hours from the official ETF flow data whether this turns into the biggest outflow on record or just a custody swap. Two on the same day roughly $1 million flowed into December 2026 $45 IT call options.

[00:07:08]Someone huge is positioning long out to the next year even while somebody else is dumping spot today. So, the read is messy. One whale wanted it out at $77,000.

[00:07:22]Another whale is buying upside a year out. All right, that is what distribution range looks like. Not a clean trend. So, three things to take home. The first one, the 1970s analog is the highest conviction macro signal on the table right now and it argues for harder money in the long run and choppier risk assets in the short run.

[00:07:47]Number two, the 200W week SMA at $61,637 is the level the chart is asking for. It does not have to get there, all right?

[00:07:59]But if it does, that is the cycle low zone. Not a place to panic sell. All right, please don't panic sell. Number three, dominance has not given the altcoin season trigger yet. So don't frontr run it. So with that said, if you like this video, be sure to check us out at learningcrypto.com and access your own custom market overview. Hit that like button, subscribe if you're not already, and I will see you guys in the next one. Take care.