What Will Be The Bottom For BTC?

[00:00:00]Bitcoin is tanking and everyone is panicking, but the bottom isn't where you think it is. Today, I'm joined by Joe Consorti, head of growth at Thea, a macro market analyst, and one of the few people who accurately mapped the 2022 bottom. Now, most people are waiting for a signal that never comes. They're watching the price, refreshing their portfolio, and trying to time the market. Joe doesn't do that. He tracks global liquidity, Fed policy, and the macro forces that actually move Bitcoin.

[00:00:31]And right now, they're all pointing to something [music] most retail investors aren't prepared for. Now, in this episode, Joe is going to break down where the bottom is likely to be, what the macro environment is telling us right now, and the exact strategy you need to deploy to ensure you come out on top, and why the investors who keep stacking through the chaos are the ones who come out on top. I want to know from straight off the bat, everyone in Australia wants to know, is the Bitcoin low in and should they be absolutely loading up on Bitcoin right now?

[00:01:02]>> You know, it's a really good question and thank you so much for having me.

[00:01:05]Always a pleasure chatting with you and your audience. You know, it's a it's a really loaded question because there are numerous factors at this point in time that suggest the Bitcoin low is close, but not necessarily that it's in. Let me explain what I mean by that. So, uh, Bitcoin bottoms tend to take quite a bit of time and there tend to be two major factors as far as creating a Bitcoin bottom are concerned. The first one is the amount of time it takes to create a Bitcoin bottom. So, James Czech, who I'm sure you've spoken with before, another Australian Bitcoin legend, he >> Yeah, there you go. Uh, he has talked about the idea of Bitcoin taking a timebased capitulation. Uh basically what he's getting at here is there's obviously a price at which people feel demoralized and buyers set the floor, but there's also a period of time that it takes in order for that floor to actually be fully set and for us to move higher. Typically speaking, uh the time that it takes for a new bottom to be found after a cycle high for Bitcoin is about 12 to 16 months. Uh so obviously Bitcoin made its cycle high October 6th of last year, $126,000.

[00:02:04]Then uh we are currently call it 9 months out from that actually a little bit over 9 months and so anywhere from 3 to 7 more months which would put us at the earliest early October at the latest early February that is roughly what we're talking about now. So we know when Bitcoin is going to bottom generally speaking right holding all else equal saying that this cycle behaves just like all prior cycles October to February is sort of the time you'd be looking at. So the next logical question becomes like where is Bitcoin going to bottom? What is the level at which Bitcoin will find its low? Well, two things that I want to uh go ahead and show here. The first being where I think why the the reason I I'm very confident that Bitcoin is close to its bottom and that is the 200E moving average. So, uh this is just the smooth price of Bitcoin over the last four years. Uh basically every single day it takes the rolling price of Bitcoin over the prior year and then it sets it on this blue line. Now, you can see here if I zoom all the way out to Bitcoin's entire history, you can see that it's bounced off this 200week moving average pretty reliably at the bottom of every bare market. Now, granted, it does tend to spend some time underneath it. As you can see here, back in 2015, we spent a cumulative 4 months underneath the uh 200E moving average.

[00:03:15]Um, back in 2020, we spent what looks like about a month underneath it or 3 weeks. And then back in 2022, we spent a grand total of roughly 6 months underneath this level. Now, one thing to keep in mind for 2022 is that during this period right here, you had FTX. Uh, so FTX obviously massive American and international Bitcoin exchange. They were secretly rehypothecating customers Bitcoin. All that means is they were taking customer deposits without their knowledge and posting them as collateral on loans. And then once Bitcoin's price began moving against those loans and they were asked to post more margin, they couldn't. They were forced to liquidate. That drove Bitcoin's price down further. And the moment this got out to the general public, people began selling as fast as they could. And that created what you see right here. And so, generally speaking, right, if we set aside any crazy exogenous catalyst, exogenous factor that could drive Bitcoin to sell off rapidly, um, Bitcoin generally bottoms within 5 to 10% of its 200E moving average. Uh, and it spends anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months there.

[00:04:14]Uh taking a look at where we are today, you can see Bitcoin sort of came right down onto its 200E moving average a little bit over a month ago. So June 4th is when we first arrived down here at the 200WE moving average. You can see we've gone a little bit above it. We've gone below it. We went above it again briefly. Now we're back below it. And so we are firmly in this final phase of the Bitcoin cycle. The only question is will we take another leg down between now and then? And I tend to think we will. um we can get into sort of the levels uh at which I think Bitcoin could bottom and sort of what to look out for between now and February, but as far as the timing is concerned, the bottom is approaching.

[00:04:49]Yeah, Joe, I'd love you to go into it because surely it just can't be that simple as in maybe it's the the four-year cycle. I know we talked I've heard you talk about previously about the top was actually in in October of of last year and it kind of fell right within I guess the the the metrics that were sort of previously there. So you could almost time it to the day. But surely we can't just be holding on to our powder waiting for an exact day. It can't be that simple.

[00:05:15]>> Yeah, it can't be that simple. And I was of the opinion that it wasn't going to be that simple. And then all of a sudden, Bitcoin wound up topping basically to the day that the four-year cycle said it would. And so I changed my mind. I was very wrong. It's quite interesting the four-year cycle because basically for those of you who might not be aware, who might be watching the show, the four-year cycle uh essentially is this idea that Bitcoin trades around its having cycles. One of the unique aspects about Bitcoin, which is actually written onto the white paper behind me, is the fact that roughly every 210,000 blocks, which is about every four years, uh the supply schedule of Bitcoin. So the amount of new Bitcoin that gets created gets cut in half. And so when Bitcoin was first created, 500 Bitcoin were issu rather were issued in every new block roughly every 10 minutes. The first having it cut that to 25. Then the third, second having it, it cut that to 12 1/2. Then the third it cut that to 6.25. And now after the fourth having which occurred on uh in April of 2024 the new bitcoin mined in each block was cut all the way down to 3.125 bitcoin.

[00:06:14]Now in my opinion that is small enough that ultimately it was not going to have an impact on bitcoin's price. Uh the reason Bitcoin tends to oscillate and move around these four-year cycles is that when you cut the new amount of this thing being issued into existence by 50%, you're issuing a lot of it and then suddenly you're issuing half of that.

[00:06:35]That creates a massive supply shock with about an 18-month lag. And so pretty reliably, you've been able to go back through history and witness this. You've been able to go and see 18 months roughly after every single having event, Bitcoin finds its top between 18 and 19 months. And so basically to the day right after the 4-year cycle was supposed to hit it hit right so the having event occurred in early April of 2024 18 months after that is October of 2025 and that is exactly when Bitcoin topped. Now I was of the opinion that we wouldn't do that but I stand corrected.

[00:07:08]Now the reason I think the four-year cycle still has merit and why it's so predictable is because of all of the new entrance into Bitcoin and also all of the Bitcoin OGs. One thing I'll say which sounds a little bit counterintuitive to the folks at home is that despite Bitcoin's volatility because a lot of you are holding a pretty sizable amount of it. It goes up, it goes down, but from a cycles perspective, Bitcoin is actually quite a predictable asset, right? More predictable than the stock market despite its extreme volatility. And that is because of this four-year cycle. And so you have to think the number of new entrance coming into the market as of 2024 when the US spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched. Um they now hold you know around 650 to 800,000 with Black Rockck alone over a million coins. So cumulative they hold cumulatively they are the single largest cohort of Bitcoin owners in the world. You got to think all of this new entrance are going to be looking for reliable indicators that they can use to trade off of or at the very least make allocation decisions off of. Right? ETF holders don't generally trade, but what they do do, you know, they make decisions as to when they're going to increase their allocations, when they're going to slow them down.

[00:08:10]Um, remember most ETF holders are buying in a retirement account. And so, you've got to think if you have a predictor that is this reliable and predictable, a lot of people are going to start making decisions based off of it. And so, even though the actual four-year cycle itself, the actual having impact doesn't necessarily have the same supply shock impact that it should on Bitcoin, the psychological component is still there.

[00:08:32]And so, that brings us to what is the absolute cycle floor. We know the timing of the cycle. It lines up with October to February. We know roughly speaking that we are right around the target of when we should start forming a bottom.

[00:08:43]If we do want based on the 200E moving average if we do wind up taking one more leg lower. What are the downside targets? Well, what I'll do is I will give the absolute worst case scenario.

[00:08:54]So that way people can walk away from this show feeling a little bit more assured, right? Because ultimately that's what data allows us to do. That's what I do in my community, the hard money room, which I'll talk a little bit more about in a bit. Ultimately, what I try to help people do and what the community does is help people navigate Bitcoin and market cycles with ease. And the best way to do that is with information. So, this is one of my favorite indicators here. I'll zoom out.

[00:09:13]You can see how reliable of a floor it is over time. And you can almost see how this looks like a staircase going up and to the right. Obviously, Bitcoin's orange price line looks like a staircase in and of itself. It looks more like a wave that is increasing over time. But the long-term holder realized price, this metric here, looks very much like a staircase. So, what on earth is this green line that you're looking at? Well, effectively what this is showing is the average purchase price of long-term holders of Bitcoin. And in Bitcoin terms, a long-term holder is simply defined as anybody who has held the asset for 155 days or more. So long-term holders, uh that is what we're talking about when we're talking about Bitcoin specifically. Uh and they're actually one of the most uh uh intelligent cohorts of investors as far as Bitcoin is concerned. Uh generally speaking, these are people who don't make hasty decisions. When the price is going up, they tend to sit on their hands. when the price is going down, they tend to accumulate really heavily. Rinse and repeat. Um, and obviously when they accumulate, they're uh the the average cost basis goes up. When they sell, the average cost basis remains roughly the same or drifts down. So, basically what you're seeing here is the smart money.

[00:10:16]This is the average price of Bitcoin that was purchased by all of the smartest money on the network, generally speaking. And you can see that it served as quite the reliable floor for Bitcoin over time. You can see here back in 2015, Bitcoin ranged below the long-term holder realized price for about 6 months all the way from January of 2015, actually for about 10 months until uh September of 2015. You go over here to the very next cycle during 2018 2019. It ranged underneath the long-term holder cost basis, which was at about $4,400 uh from November of 2018 all the way through April of 2019. So, we're talking 5 6 months. Um, and then over here in 2022, this was one of the longer periods that it spent underneath the long-term holder cost basis from August of 2022, briefly ticking above it, but then all the way to January of 2023. So, again, about 5 months. So, what we're seeing here is about 5 to 6 months worth of ranging before Bitcoin actually finds its low. So, two things to note here.

[00:11:13]Number one, chances are Bitcoin is going to interact with this level at some point this cycle, right? I I do think Bitcoin is going to trend lower and touch the long-term holder cost basis, uh, which currently sits at $49,920.

[00:11:27]A couple of things to keep in mind.

[00:11:28]Number one, as I mentioned, long-term holders, the smart money in Bitcoin, they tend to buy when the price is low, which is the opposite of retail investors. Um, you know, think your typical retail investor, your friend who asks you about Bitcoin at the pub and then asks if now is a good time to buy and then he panics once it dips by 10%.

[00:11:45]That is the opposite of this type of investor. uh this type of investor doesn't sell when the price is crashing, they buy when the price is crashing. And right now with the price down 50%. You could see that they have been buying and raising their average purchase price, their average cost basis. So even though I think Bitcoin is going to go down and visit this level, I think it's going to be at a higher price than $49,000 US. I think it chances are it's going to be in that low $50,000 range, which actually lines up with a couple of other key levels, key onchain metrics. Now what onchain metrics are, they're effectively unique metrics to Bitcoin that are observable on Bitcoin's blockchain.

[00:12:21]Bitcoin is quite unique because uh you don't just have technical indicators.

[00:12:25]You can actually observe the behavior on Bitcoin's blockchain itself and extrapolate that user data like long-term holders uh into different levels for Bitcoin. Uh and historically speaking, the long-term holder cost basis has been one of the most reliable floor models. I think it's going to continue rising over these next couple of months as we chop around and try to find our floor into October and early February. And then once Bitcoin finally converges with it, I think chances are it's going to be in the low 50s. And I do believe this time around, Bitcoin will actually spend the least amount of time that it ever has underneath this floor specifically because of the dynamic I mentioned a moment ago. And I promise I'll stop rambling. Um, with the ETF holders specifically, right, they are very, very diamond-handed, right?

[00:13:06]generally speaking, they hold on to Bitcoin and they hold on to it tightly.

[00:13:09]June actually was the worst outflow month on record for total spot Bitcoin ETF holding. So, people were selling quite a bit. Um, but beyond that, generally speaking, they're much more inclined to hold Bitcoin for the long run. And just thinking from first principles, it makes a lot of sense. If you're buying Bitcoin for retirement, for example, you know, if you're buying Bitcoin in your super, chances are you're probably not trading in and out of it all that much. You know, you might be doing it a little bit, but your core stack you hold on to. That's the exact same thing with the ETFs. And so I tend to think that because of that you might not see the massive capitulation all the way down to say 45K that you did in prior cycles because the market is less dominated by retail than it ever has been. And so all that is to say I think Bitcoin pretty reliably just historically speaking worst case scenario finds its bottom uh finds its bottom in the high $40,000 range right where the long-term holder realized price is. Uh but because of the changing dynamics of the supply in Bitcoin's market today, I think we converge at that level in the low 50s and that's where Bitcoin finds its bottom.

[00:14:07]>> Yep. Joe, let me ask you this because I saw recently a graph that showed that the whales are accumulating at a record pace that I mean the spike in the graph was extraordinary. So more whales buying Bitcoin right now than ever before in the history of Bitcoin. But that then leads me to something that I saw within your hard money room. And just for full transparency, I am actually a paid up member of Joe's group, which I find is absolutely fantastic. So much value in there as well. And one of the posts you did in there, Joe, was in the last two hours, you said two very different buyers just showed up at the range lows.

[00:14:41]So are you saying then that the you've got I guess would that sort of tie in with these whales buying at the same time? That's exactly right. So basically what you've got is three different sorts of buyers. in the post that I did in the hard money room and thank you for bringing it up. I talk about the ETFs and I talk about the long-term holders.

[00:14:59]Um, and I'll go ahead and show those charts, but the one that you're referencing, which is the whale accumulation, there was the basically what you're referencing is there was the largest ever 30-day spike in accumulation of Bitcoin by whales. And when we're talking about whales, we're talking about entities that have 1,000 Bitcoin or more. Like just crazy amounts. You know, some of you listening probably have 100 Bitcoin, maybe 150. So even, you know, to me that's crazy, right? Even having something like 50 Bitcoin is wild. But some of you have been around here for quite some time. Uh we're talking about a totally different league here, right? 100 to a thousand.

[00:15:30]Those are the people who are accumulating at their fastest pace in history, right? So typically that doesn't happen when Bitcoin is near a top. Again, if you think of long-term holders as the smart money that just goes for anybody who's held Bitcoin for 155 days or more, that doesn't include people who own a ton of Bitcoin, which these whales do. So you have to think of the whales as even smarter money. And historically, that checks out. They sell the tops and they buy the bottoms. And right now, their largest 30-day inflow ever. That's signal number one. That chances are from a buyer behavior perspective, we are at the bottom. Uh signal number two is one of the charts that you just mentioned. And I'll bring up the second chart. This is the long-term holder net position change of Bitcoin. Basically, what this shows uh in green, this is well, this is the 30-day long-term holder net position change. So basically this long-term holder cohort that we've been speaking about uh green means that they are accumulating Bitcoin over the last 30 days and red means they are distributing it or selling it. You can see here that again quite reliably long-term holders tend to accumulate into weakness or buy when the price is going down and sell into strength or sell or distribute into strength or meaning sell when the price is going up. Uh you could see here um during the bottom of the 2022 bare during the dip of the prior bull market they accumulated. When it started uh topping they sold when it started falling they accumulated uh rinse and repeat. And then once we found the bottom here they accumulated on net um again while Bitcoin was basing around and sort of falling over the all throughout the middle of 2023. They accumulated again and then once it rose they sold. So you get the pattern here right? These people are smart. They sell when the price is high and they buy when the price is low on net. Well, if you zoom in over here, what is it that they've been doing ever since Bitcoin sort of crossed underneath $100,000, but more importantly under $80,000? They've been buying like madmen, right? Despite the price moving up a little bit higher right here, they have been buying like madmen. This little blip that you see here is a result of them selling this top here. Uh because again, this is lagged by about 30 days. But you can see as the price came down, they were backing up the truck to buy this thing.

[00:17:36]And so what this is telling you is that the long-term holders, the people who only buy during extreme weakness, just had their biggest buying event uh since uh last year, since earlier than last year, right, when Bitcoin had crashed from its uh its uh first dip above $100,000, its first wink above $100,000 uh and then crashed underneath that.

[00:17:55]Long-term holders are buying at the fastest clip since that event occurred.

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[00:18:31]>> The other thing that's worth pointing out, and I'm happy you brought up the the Hard Money Room post because this really sort of elucidates the dynamic that's going on here, is the daily Bitcoin ETF inflow. So, I mentioned the ETFs. I mentioned how they're generally very diamond-handed. They tend to not sell Bitcoin. Well, right here, you can see this is basically I know this looks like a crazy chart. Looks like a Christmas tree, but don't click off of the video just yet. I'll promise you'll walk away smarter than you were. Um, what you can see here is every single spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States broken up by vehicle. You can see all of their ticker symbols down here. You don't really need to know what companies these belong to. Just know that these are the 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 main spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States.

[00:19:14]Uh so these are the exchange traded funds that purchase Bitcoin on behalf of their clients so that individuals either in retirement accounts or just participating in the equity market can get spot bitcoin exposure. Uh they hold more than 1 million bitcoin cumulatively. So the buying behavior and the selling behavior of this cohort matters quite a lot. I mentioned that they have this tendency to hold on to their bitcoin with very very strong diamond hands. Uh unlike retail investors they tend to not sell. You can see here basically all throughout when Bitcoin began declining um into where we are now the ETFs largely be were still accumulators. You can see here or their AUM at the very least only declined a little bit. The total assets under management only declined a little bit.

[00:19:53]You can see here um the the wicks to the upside. So these are outflows on the bottom. These are inflows on the top.

[00:19:59]You can see they're relatively balanced here, right? And even what during these dips in February, March and April, you could see that there were a ton of inflows. And then May and June rolled around and you could see massive net outflows. So what happened over the last month during the period when uh the last month and a half to two months uh during the same period where Bitcoin went from where it was in the high70s to low 80s all the way down to 59K. You can see that that was the moment at which a lot of the ETF holders said, you know what, I'm out. Get me out of here. I'm selling my coins. Um and that's what this massive amount of outflows is. The fact that they are now buying Bitcoin right at the fastest clip that they have since their previous buying spree is a signal that chances are the bottom is forming.

[00:20:43]Now again this is only 3 days of data.

[00:20:46]Um and today uh the outflow the inflows were only marginally bigger than they are right here. All that all that is to say it is still a very reliable indicator that chances are the tide is turning. Remember the Bitcoin ETFs have only been around for one bare market. So the fact that they are accumulating following this massive period of outflows or capitulation as we call it uh is potentially a very early signal um that the bottom is forming. So those are really three things to keep in mind.

[00:21:12]People who own a ton of Bitcoin are buying more aggressively than they ever have before. People who have held Bitcoin for a very long time and tend to be the smart money um are are have flipped into being net accumulators for the first time in a very long time. And the Bitcoin ETFs, thing number three, um, who also tend to sit on their hands and hold on to their Bitcoin position very tightly, uh, who just experienced their largest outflow month in history, have flipped back to net accumulators as well. So, three major onchain signals, all sort of confirming, um, what we're talking about when we're talking about price, which is that Bitcoin is either at its bottom or at the very least close to its bottom. And that's sort of the entire reason that the room exists, right? not to give price targets, but to give people a probabilistic range and help them build a system for understanding these things so that when they wake up one day and Bitcoin's down 10%, they're not afraid because they understand the levels. So, just to wrap this part up, I guess for for the punter, you've got whales that are accumulating at record pace. Okay, so that kind of tells you that they probably think the low is basically in, but then the data is also saying, hang on a second, you should wait until like Q4, October to February perhaps. So why is it that I guess if if they thought that the low was going to be in from October, wouldn't they wait or what is what are we not seeing here?

[00:22:27]>> That's a perfect question, Matthew. And at first it seems a little bit contradictory when I say they're the smartest money. They only buy at the lows, but then I also say, hey, the data says the low might not be in until October. What do I mean by that? Well, and I've said this ad nauseium, not just in the group, but more importantly on all of the videos that I produce, and it's that nobody can time the bottom exactly. Maybe one or two people globally out of the hundreds of millions of Bitcoin buyers and Bitcoin holders, but nobody can time it. What do I mean by that? Well, chances are, right, you being able to actually bottom tick the exact Bitcoin bottom or even get within $500 of it very low, right? However, what people can much more reliably do is begin increasing their buying in advance of the bottom. And that's the dynamic you're seeing now. Generally speaking, right, the smart money, they do this exact thing. They don't try to unload a massive clip of cash into Bitcoin at what they believe is the bottom. They try to increase their buying as we approach the bottom. And that's [snorts] what you're seeing now from all three of these uh these smart money cohorts, the ETFs, the long-term holders, and the whales. Uh they begin increasing their buying as we approach the bottom. Now, the question then logically becomes, well, how on earth do we know that we're approaching the bottom? What would you classify that as? Well, a couple of different things. Um, number one, and most importantly for me, and I mentioned this when I was speaking uh to your inner circle members this Monday, Matthew, it is the 200E moving average.

[00:23:47]That is one of my favorite things, my favorite barometer. When we are within 5% of that thing, more importantly, when we hit that thing, I quadruple my DCA.

[00:23:56]So, I quadruple the amount of Bitcoin that I'm buying on a daily basis once we reach the level that is largely considered to be the bare market floor.

[00:24:04]Well, why did I do that? I buy Bitcoin every single day. Anyways, you could set up a dollar cost average or just a recurring buy order. I don't know what they call it in Australia. We call it a dollar cost average over here.

[00:24:14]>> Yeah, DCI.

[00:24:15]>> Perfect. A recurring buy order on whatever frequency works best for you, whether it's weekly, bi-weekly, when the paycheck comes in on a monthly basis for tax reasons or accounting purposes, whatever works best for you. I have my DCA firing away. And then once we reach these levels, I quadruple it. I don't necessarily have the dry powder, the the the cash flow to be able to sustain that forever, but because I know chances are we're going to spend anywhere from three to six months at the bottom, I can sustain that and I will have bought much more Bitcoin at a much lower average blended price than I would if I were to wait for the bottom. Right? Even though I can very reliably and confidently say we're probably going to find the bottom sometime in October, right? We're probably going to get one more leg down.

[00:24:56]And even if we don't, the bottom will be in October. will start moving higher probably after that. Even though I can reliably say that, I never know if I'm going to actually catch the bottom. And so, I would rather accumulate at a discount than miss the boat and then wait to buy a price that never comes.

[00:25:11]And that's basically why what you're seeing with all of the other sort of smart money cohorts that we just discussed, >> right? So, Joe, in my crypto collective community, we we focus on self-managed super funds. So, imagine you're someone who's just rolled over, let's say, 300 or 500,000 Australian dollars. they're ready to deploy into Bitcoin. It's already low, but no doubt people are new to the market. They're not really sure.

[00:25:33]Do I put the full, let's call it half a million dollars just straight into Bitcoin, or would your suggestion at this point be put half in and then DCA the rest out? What What are your thoughts on that?

[00:25:44]>> Yeah. So, it's funny you bring that up because I was actually just talking to a community member on a one-on-one call yesterday about this very question. He had just sold his business. He's from the UK and he was talking about he was asking me, okay, I know we're at a 50% discount. What would your strategy be to allocate this to Bitcoin? He said he wanted to buy 10 Bitcoin with it at roughly 60,000 US. He had about 1.2 million sitting there. He wanted to set an aside for taxes. Wanted to buy 10 bit. He had the dry powder to buy the 10 Bitcoin right then and there. He could have achieved a stacking goal. However, given the cyclicality of Bitcoin and the fact that not only does the 4-year cycle line up with an October bottom, but also the macro backdrop, which we haven't even discussed, lines up with an October bottom and we haven't even hit these downside targets. At the very least, even if we don't hit those levels, we will spend some time at this price range right before moving higher. It's just a fact as far as Bitcoin cycles are concerned unless we break all precedent.

[00:26:36]And so what I what I told him was if you are more concerned about locking in your Bitcoin stacking goal, buy all of it today. Right? If you can if you can um basically psychologically come to terms with the fact that like 10 years from now, if we do find a lower bottom this a lower level this cycle, which we very well might, if you can, you know, uh look yourself in the mirror and not be upset at yourself 10 years from now for buying uh you know, 20% less Bitcoin than you could have, then by all means buy it. However, if you are dead set on getting the lowest average blended cost, then you can do a combination of of two things. You can go one of two routes.

[00:27:10]Number one, you can either deploy half of it right now and then DCA the rest or you can DCA all of it. Basically, the way that I advised him was this, and again, not financial advice, is that between now and October, right, which in my mind is sort of the earliest that Bitcoin could find its bottom uh and then begin moving higher, whether it's basically at the price we are now or one leg down, is divvy up the number of weeks we have and then the number of days we have between now and October 6, which according to the four-year cycle is sort of the earliest that Bitcoin could bottom and begin moving higher.

[00:27:38]And then buy that much on that cadence, right? or deploy half today and then take that exact same number of weeks or days, whatever you want to buy at, and then deploy the rest of your capital at that cadence. Right? That's the best way to get the lowest average blended price.

[00:27:52]So, basically, the decision-m framework you should have is, am I more comfortable buying Bitcoin right now and then potentially accepting the fact that I didn't get the lowest average blended price or do I want to try my luck? Do I want to trust the Bitcoin cycles? Deploy a decent chunk of it today so I do not miss out in case we don't go lower and then deploy the rest over the next three months because in all likelihood we're going to be trending lower. So those are that's sort of the decision matrix that people should have on making allocation decision. Yeah. And I always tell people as well, you got to you got to zoom out.

[00:28:23]So, when Bitcoin's sitting at a million dollars, let's say, in anywhere from five to seven years from now, are you going to care whether you got it today at 60 grand or you missed it by not getting it at 50 grand, right? You are not I'm telling you, you won't care.

[00:28:36]>> It's sort of like the the the old the old joke. It's like, are you going to care that your yacht is 50 feet or 55 ft? You're just going to be happy that you have a yacht. Not promising a yacht, just an analogy. But >> yeah, that's good. I like that. Now, you did say before though that, you know, you cannot guarantee the bottom. And here's some of the things I just noticed on a post today, Joe, which was actually put out by CZ, the founder of Binance, and some of the things that could send Bitcoin skyrocketing and probably debunked all this low within the Q4. And that is sovereign nations buying Bitcoin, pension funds allocating, uh, the US building a strategic reserve and institutional infrastructure that doesn't exist in any any previous cycle.

[00:29:18]So they although we talk about black swan events potentially that bring the price down, there's probably other black swan events that are going to shoot the price up too. And that's why I like to have exposure rather than no exposure.

[00:29:28]What do you think? Absolutely. You know, I love that CC talked about that because too often we talk about black swan events. So basically the downside tail risks, but not often enough do we talk about white swan events, even though white swans are much more common. So perhaps we can call them, you know, black swans but positive, but we'll call them white swans. the the opposite of a black swan, which is basically just like a positive tail risk, something that could happen in an edge case scenario that would be actually great for Bitcoin. We don't talk about this nearly enough, and that's sort of what I like to do on on my channel. I like to say, "Hey, look at this development from Charles Schwab. Look at this development from Morgan Stanley. Look, the Clarity Act is, you know, a decent likelihood of passing. Look, the the United States wants to buy, you know, 1 million Bitcoin over the next 5 years, right?

[00:30:08]That's pretty incredible." And all of these things don't get discussed enough, but they definitely don't get discuss discussed enough during a bare market, right? Bitcoin's down 50%. People are more concerned with screaming at each other about why Bitcoin's price is down and yelling at Michael Sailor and calling him a Ponzi scheme. Whatever you think about that, whatever. The reality is people don't talk about the bullish stuff enough. And the biggest bullish development on my mind is the American Reserve Modernization Act. So, I keep harping on about America. I know that I'm talking mostly to Australians here, but it's quite substantial because the United States not only has via executive order established a formal strategic Bitcoin reserve. We haven't funded it yet with anything other than seized Bitcoin, we currently have about 350,000 Bitcoin in there. Regardless, we are trying to move forward a bill that would take the United States gold reserves, revalue them because currently they're valued at the 1972 price of about $41.71, which is crazy cuz it's $4,000 today roughly. Revalue it, capture the gain on paper without selling it. So, silly accounting fiat tricks, but regardless, capture the gain on paper and then use those proceeds to buy Bitcoin, right?

[00:31:13]Without selling any of the gold in our vault, buy Bitcoin with those proceeds.

[00:31:17]Now, the question becomes, how much Bitcoin is the United States planning to buy? Well, the plan would be to purchase up to 200,000 Bitcoin a year for 5 years and fund the reserve with up to 1 million Bitcoin. That's in addition to the 300,000 Bitcoin we already have. So, that's quite incredible. And even if it doesn't happen, and I I think chances are it will because again, we're not selling any of the United States gold in order to make it happen. Think of the nation state game that that kicks off, right? If you're China, right? If you are Russia, if you're India, if you're South Africa, any of the other BRICS nations that has been trying to break away from the United States dollar, right? Trying to sort of construct this insular global trade network that circumnavigates the dollar without having to use it as their denominating currency. What do you think you're going to do if the United States all of a sudden begins accumulating a ton of Bitcoin? Chances are you're going to want to accumulate Bitcoin, too. Why is that? Well, these nations are effectively trying to create a hard moneybacked currency in order to circumvent the US dollar. It hasn't worked, right? Uh there have been discussions of this for more than half a decade at this point. This idea of creating basically a basket of currencies and then one underlying currency that's backed by gold. It's not working. Why is it not working? Number one, we live in an era of very high frequency, high volume global trade. The idea of shipping several tons of gold between one another to settle your balance of payments is just ridiculous.

[00:32:37]And so like it's impractical from that perspective, but also from the perspective of verifiability. How on earth are you going to be able to verify all of the gold you just took delivery of is legitimate gold? Chances are you're not going to be able to, right?

[00:32:49]So uh impracticality in a high frequency, high volume global trade world and the the lack of true verifiability. But most importantly, and this is the reason why BRICS is is functionally dead and why chances are they're going to be exploring Bitcoin.

[00:33:03]All of these nations are going to be exploring Bitcoin and it's kind of why the US wants to buy a lot of it first is because we are now in an increasingly trustless world, right? The the world has never been more fra outside of the world wars, right? The modern world has never been more fractured and distrustful of one another. Now, in an increasingly fractured and distrustful system, these nations don't want to hold US dollars. Russia had their reserves frozen. China obviously is actively selling off all of their US treasuries to make sure that doesn't happen to them. Iran had all of its reserves frozen. These are things that are impossible with Bitcoin, right? So, it's no wonder why these countries are now exploring Bitcoin as the alternative, right? You have Iran, which tried to accept Bitcoin as payment for tolls for passage through the street of Hormuz. It didn't work. The US started bombing them, but it's quite a substantial development that they looked to Bitcoin to fulfill that function. And so like if you just zoom out to 30,000 ft and look at the game theory at work here, the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the American Reserve Modernization Act trying to buy a million Bitcoin over the next 5 years, it's not just trying to buy votes. It's trying to secure the future of US dollar hegemony for years and decades to come by making sure we're buying the one currency that our enemy countries can use to opt out of it before they do. Right? And so that kicks off a massive geopolitical game of Bitcoin accumulation, effectively a Bitcoin arms race. So to CZ's point, in my mind, that is the single most bullish white swan event, if you will, the most bullish unforeseen right tail risk positive event for Bitcoin that I just don't think is getting enough air time.

[00:34:36]Yeah, it's astonishing. And there's so much news coming out too, Joe. Only just in recent times, I saw one of your US admirals in one of the committees of Congress or something talking about Bitcoin as a strategic power for the military and they were running their own node. I mean, how much more bullish news can you get than that? This is not a fringe thing anymore. It's quite extraordinary. Joe, we've got to wrap up this call, but before we do, you you provide so much value, and I did we did sort of drop in before about the hard money room that you do. What is the hard money room and what sort of value do you provide in there?

[00:35:08]>> Yeah, absolutely. So, thank you for bringing it up. Uh effectively a hard money room is a room for serious Bitcoin holders who just want to understand global macro forces and how they move the Bitcoin price, how to build a framework around how Bitcoin moves, all of these things about when Bitcoin bottoms, where it bottoms, when it's going to top. Like if all of this sounds like astrology to you and you want to actually make a science of it and understand how Bitcoin moves so that you know when you can scale up your buying, you know when you can sell, and you're in a room full of other serious Bitcoin thinkers who want to do the same thing.

[00:35:39]Um, that's what the hard money room is all about. So, if you're interested in that, feel free to go to school.com/thehardmoney room. You can find the link in the description of this video. Uh, sign up.

[00:35:49]I actually do have founding member pricing until we hit 50 members. So, the price of this is $97 US a month, but for a limited time only, until we hit 50 members, I have 26 more slots available at less than 50% off. So, $47 US a month. Uh so for a limited time only until those slots fill uh that is the founding member pricing. Again you can go to the uh the link in the video description to check that out. Awesome Joe. Thank you so much. I really encourage people to jump in there too and get a part of Joe's community just to get this data straight from Joe's mouth before it hits YouTube or anything else direct from him himself. And I know you also do weekly calls as well which is fantastic. So Joe, thank you so much again. Joe Consorti coming onto the Crypto Collective and a look