Debt sustainability analysis is a critical economic tool that requires regular assessment to prevent debt distress, and governments must be transparent about economic risks to enable timely corrective actions; when debt sustainability indicators show high risk for multiple consecutive years, continued adherence to unsustainable policies can lead to severe economic consequences including currency devaluation, inflation spikes, and significant financial losses that could have been mitigated through earlier intervention.
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“Praise Mahama, not the robbers!”😱Isaac Adongo EXPLODES at NPP over DDEP as economy rebounds😳🔥Añadido:
Isaac, Central Member of Parliament, Chairman of the Finance Committee in Parliament, investors for years in connection to the B net losses.
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before. So when it comes to the DD >> um how is that the case?
So uh for relatively for 5 years, you know that every year our laws and the requirements of the article four reviews of the IMF require that we do annual debt sustainability analysis and that is supposed to guide us and give us uh an idea of where we are going whether we are we are working in terrible territories or we we are comfortable.
>> And the public financial management act requires that in May when the minister for finance present what we call the physical strategy document to the cabinet of Ghana which is more or less a document that defines the policy priorities of the government. That document should be accompanied by two key important variables and they are not put there for fun. M >> one is the the risk the annual risk statement.
What are the risks that are posed to the economy? The way we have run the economy. What are some of the risks that cabinet should consider in taking decisions to implement the fiscal strategy document. In that same report, the law requires that the minister must also present an annual risk management risk analysis report, debt sustainability report.
For 3 years consecutively, Ghana was assessed to be at high risk of debt distress. It's not as if we just were just caught by surprise. for five continuous years. All our debt sustainability analysis pointed to the fact that we were at high risk of debt distress. But this guy say they continued on the same trajectory and deceiving the people of Ghana that everything was well because our laws do not require those three documents to be published. So Ghanaians don't know, only the people who sit in cabinet know and they were aware that things are going terribly bad. But instead of pinching themselves and taking the appropriate steps to bring us back to track, they continued on the same trajectory until 2022 when it became clear that we didn't even have the forex. Even if we decided to be printing money and the central bank was printing money like Yahoo boys >> Mhm. printing money as if we were your own government until it got to a time we have printed the dollars the cities but the people you owe can only receive dollars externally can you pay cities to America or Europe that was where they were caught at that point when he looks here cities he looks here cities he looks here the bill is in dollars so he will force now write a to our credits and say we cannot pay not because we cannot print cities but we don't have the dollars to externalize the payments.
Okay.
Now our cover at the central bank could only cover 0.8 months of import cover less than one month. So we had no choice. The central bank didn't have the dollars where we used to go and borrow 5 billion $3 billion a year to pay for these things. The people had become alarmed and they have stopped giving us the money. We had printed so much already and given it to government. So when government came down to seek the help of the IMF, the IMF itself doesn't lend into an unsustainable situation and Ghana had been declared unsustainable.
So for Ghana to even qualify for a program, we needed to come back, discuss with our creditors and bring our our debt situation to sustainable level to comply with a major internal approval process of the IMF. So we're not even qualified to be given an IMF program for the first time. So we now came back and said, "Okay, our creditors, this is a situation we can't pay." So Ghanaians, you are going to suffer the some of the haircut. Internationally, you are going to suffer some of the haircut. And part of the people who suffered the haircut were the people who were violating the laws of Ghana and printing money and lending them to the government to the extent that the government of Ghana and the central bank. The government of Ghana gave the central bank a haircut of 32 billion Ghana cities in one year. That was the beginning of the 55 billion loss >> that I referred to earlier.
>> Out of the impairment calculation of 58 billion, 32 billion of that was a complete write off. And I always refer them. Go and look at the public financial management act. Nobody has the right to extinguish, abandon or refrain from collecting an obligation that is due to the state except the people's representative, the parliament of Ghana. Who must be made aware take a decision to grant that waiver? But these people sat in their offices and wrote off 32 billion Ghana cities.
So the haircut did not only affect the Ghanaian people who invested, it also affected the Bank of Ghana. So that was the beginning of the trouble of the central bank. The question is why did you ignore all the signs?
Why did you ignore all the compliance provisions in our public financial management act that said that every year that you come in May and you look at the fiscal uh rate statement and you look at the annual debt sustainability report, you should begin to pause and take the appropriate steps to bring us back in line with those sustainability numbers.
They didn't.
>> And and two years on, the central bank is still reeling from that.
>> That money is gone. But it's not coming back. Why we say write off?
>> So the central bank cannot go to government to collect that money again.
>> So so what what I'm trying to connect now is how 2 years on that could still be an explanation for >> now you have asked me >> is that the reasons we have given for the account we haven't >> no no one of the things we've been told that the DD played a role in >> a role in the commulative negative net worth that was brought forward.
>> Mhm. So that 61 billion could have been less by 32 billion and would not have been discussing 94 billion. Now are you getting the point? So that is the extent to which the GDP is being discussed. It is not an a a what do you call 2025 event but it was carried as a negative net worth in the 50 61 billion and we are saying if there was no DDP the 61 billion that we're dealing with would have been less by 32 billion and therefore the net 64 billion you are discussing could have also been less by another set numbers. I I want to look at the cost of open market operations.
>> Um we we see from the financials that it doubled in in 2025 >> and um the minority has raised questions uh not only about that but they've also talked about aggressive sterilization being used as a tool as as well. Why is that um aggressive sterilization? What?
>> There's no there's no word like that.
You see >> which one the sterilization >> aggressive that aggressive object adjective >> there's nothing like that. Let me tell you >> you are saying central banks don't sterilize when you were aggressively pointing printing 80 billion into the economy. What were we expecting >> they have forgotten that they were they started us with a problem. If we didn't have 80 billion printed from you without any productivity to support it, these were strangers with guns that arrive in the country. The sterilized funds were highowered money and highowered monies operate as armed robbers with guns trying to shoot anybody at sight. What do you do to them? You don't take them later after them.
So what when they were aggre they they should tell us why they were aggressively printing money and expect us to leave those monies that don't belong to the economy to be terrorizing our lives. But but I mean but but more to the question right more to the question um did did the central bank or even the board not worried worry about listen no did could you not worry about the impact the sterilization could have aggressive sterilization that's you know it's put it could have on the economy itself >> so if you go chasing armed robbers and you send army you are worried about how many soldiers can arrest the armed robbers >> well there's also something like an overkill.
>> What is an overkill?
>> An overkill >> when your response when your response is not commensurate.
>> An overkill >> an overkill is when you incur a loss of 55 billion and deliver inflation that is not uh that is around 54%. That is rather an overkill.
But if you now incur a loss of 15.6 and your inflation is 32, tell me the overkill.
Tell me who was killing Ghanaians. Let me tell you when when you were printing cities without dollars in the economy >> and you had collapsed the bond market.
So the people were holding the 82 80 billion Ghana cities. You think they should put it under their pillows?
>> Mhm.
>> They will have to invest that money. The only medium, a major important medium they could have invested that money was in the bond market. You have collapsed it. So where should they keep it? They go looking for dollars to buy.
Do you understand?
>> There's nothing like free lunch. So the people were buying the dollars and there was high demand for dollars.
Others began to bet on the dollar. Okay.
So you have speculators who were betting on the dollar. People who were betting as precaution.
All of that swam on the city. M >> and the city ended up at 17 cities and you are saying what we should have allowed your printed money to roam in the economy so that as we speak we should have been talking about an exchange rate in the region of 20 or 25%. You see you remember Dr. said that if I'm coming I'm coming let me make this point you remember said that uh what do you call it if it was NDC the exchange rate will be 25 cities to a dollar >> because all he knew was that monetary policy is about printing money okay all he knew and he thought that so if we also to be printing the way they were printing it will be 25 >> today we are looking for the armed robbers in the economy terrorizing Ghanaians and they are saying why do you chase after them. They are our arm robbers. Why do you want to chase our arm robbers? I want them to tell you >> perhaps you because you drove down >> Yes.
>> uh inflation too quickly.
>> Yes.
>> You drove you drove up >> Yes.
>> the um the value of the currency. Yes.
>> Too quickly.
>> Yes.
>> Which is why you are having to yield discrepancies. We are seeing >> discrepancy means discrepancy means the numbers don't agree.
>> There is different. So you are using terminologies. So, so you say that the numbers are high. I can understand but discrepancies means that >> there is another number other than this number. Now what I want to say is this.
>> You see nobody sat down at the central bank.
>> Pull a calculator and say this rate is at 17 cities.
>> Uh if I put this dollars inside it will come to 10 cities. If I put this one inside again it will come to eight cities. Nobody did that. What we did was that look there was a challenge with making sure that you meet the demands for dollars in the economy whilst at the same time complying with the IMF's requirement to accumulate reserves.
>> But there was a government that came into office with the promise that we will deal with the macroeconomic indicators of this country. And so it's easy for people if you listen to me.
>> It's easy for people to conclude.
>> Maybe it's better you listen to me before you come in. And I'm saying that the IMF program give us an amount of reserve that we should accumulate a year. We need to do that and at the same time find dollars for the economy to function.
>> M >> now when the banks come to auction and they bring us the dollars that they need to give to their businessmen and we'll provide them.
In the past they were struggling to get those dollars. Now they get it. The next time they come, they get the dollars.
What will happen to those who were speculating and betting on the dollar?
Let me throw my dollars in now that I can salvage something. Is that not it?
>> Those who were buying on precaution. So maybe by the time my LC is due, they may not be dollars. So let me keep getting the dollars now so that by the time I have to pay my LC, there's dollar. Those are precautionary demands. They now realize that I don't need to do that.
when I need a dollar, they'll be available. So all those speculative and precautionary dollar buyers that has stuck them away from the economy suddenly threw them into the economy. So what it then means is that what we gave to Ghanaians, we now have more dollars in the economy generated by those speculators who were now running away from the very dollar that they were betting on to increase the the the dollar demand in the economy.
>> Right. and therefore weakening the dollar and strengthening the cities. I don't see how we would have known that they were not just people who were printing money and throwing arm robbers into the economy, but they were the people who were also storing the dollar against the economy. And I ever said when you have an economy where a government where CDD tells you that corruption amounts to 96 billion, you should be worried.
>> That 96 billion was what they were using to buy the dollars and stock.
>> What? and will force them to bring the dollar to the economy.
>> So, so to the point I'm making about uh driving up the indicators either up or down too quickly >> is that you have admitted that the central bank is a victim of his own success.
>> Yes.
>> Now the point some are making is that perhaps if we do not do the aggressive sterilization >> I think you are very comfortable.
>> No no imbalance because it's a thing.
How do you define a thing? How do you >> when you when you over overuse sterilization as a tool >> when you over because the previous administration also >> so far you have not spoken about the aggressive printing of money >> because we talking about >> no because that is what it was and so you must be aggressive in fighting the criminal and I'm saying that you seem to be more comfortable with the approach to fight the criminal as opposed to how the criminal came in >> perhaps because we do not get we do not want to get to the point where we need to get there the you know We do not want to go back to that point. So we want to make sure the tools that we are applying are the best and you have done it at a loss of 15.6.
>> The arm robber gave you a loss of 55 billion after printing 80 billion and throwing to the economy and he's worried that the person who went after the armed robbers to sanitize the economy, give stability and improve the lives of Ghanaians was too aggressive in fighting the criminal. I mean how do you say that? and you want me and you keep emphasizing the solution rather than the problem and and I have a problem. You see, don't be listening too much into people who have one-sided view.
>> We want to make sure we want to make sure that the solution will not will not cause any more any more problems.
>> And I'm saying that we needed to do heavy lifting. We have done that.
>> You have done that.
>> We have stabilized the economy. Okay. We have given Ghanaians relief. The pain and anguish of Ghanaians is not anything. You see, when you now are living comfortably, it is easy to now think about, okay, this could have been done that way. You see, at the time when the thing was going down, you were the guys who were very happy. Today, today >> we are questioning the >> forgotten about you should have been asking what would have been the counterfactual >> if you didn't do that.
>> If we didn't do that, what would the economy would have been? You haven't asked those questions and I'm surprised that our colleagues are not telling us the unlived experience and the lived experience is the experience Ghanaians encountered before we came to power and Ghanaians were very clear that was the reason Ghanaians showed them the exit door because you cannot come and manage the economy the way they did and we are refocusing the agenda to make sure that Ghanaians get relief by going forward we are trying to make sure that we are taking the sentiments of Ghanaians not be advised and lectured by those who for 8 years had no clue how to manage the economy. I >> I want to touch back on the policy solveny.
>> Yeah.
>> Um some have argued that this is dependent on government recapitalization of the central bank. There is an MOU in place from now.
>> So that is more about negative equity.
You see there's a difference between policy sovereignty and the bank as a going concern. So policy sovereigny you are looking at whether the bank is able to generate enough policy revenue to cover its policy action cost >> and we are saying that we are over policy solvent because we move from 700 million to 5.5 billion Ghana cities as a solvery factor in one year >> I think that our colleagues should be clapping for Dr. Sama >> you see there sometimes you see sometime you know you have to swallow your pride >> look at Dr. see my in the face. My brother, how did you do this? For 8 years, we struggled to achieve this. In fact, we even brought revenue that had nothing to do with policy sovereigny to get 7day million. You have removed those revenues. Bank of Ghana revenue, uh, Central Depository revenue, Gibs revenue, all those subsidiaries that have nothing to do with policy, you took them out and you still were able to manage your revenue so successfully that you achieved a policy factor, a policy sovereigny factor of 5.5.
>> So the central bank could could do without the >> So they must they must first they must first clap >> for Dr. Seman and his team. But the central bank >> could do without government is that is sovereignty of the bank itself >> is different from polit policy sovereignty and that's why I think our colleagues are beginning to hear certain terminologies they sat at the bank and never knew what it was all about and what it was supposed to measure otherwise you cannot be measuring central see why is it that when the central bank made a negative of 61 billion the auditors do not qualify the accounts.
Why did the auditors say that the growing concern of the bank is impaired >> and therefore they cannot satisfy that the bank will continue to serve its purpose is because as a government who is a shareholder this government had given them asurances that they would make sure they support the bank to continue to operate. This government, that was just a verbal assurance. This government, even though we inherited no program, despite the fact that the IMF continuously made it an issue that the government took a position on how it was going to recapitalize the central bank, they left government by escaping to tell the IMF how they were going to do it. First, Dr. Foren came to parliament amended the bank of Ghana act to give the central bank and the government a new mandate with clear timelines embedded in law to recapitalize the bank. So reading that act alone >> with the commitment of the government you will see that the bank actually continues as a going concern. two that commitment I have not heard the the minister for finance >> right >> say anything to the contrary that he will not respect the law but my colleagues who are complaining we're in parliament honorable is my ranking member together we chair the committee that passed the amendments we came to the floor and he debated it and approved it I'm not sure he was aware what he was doing just as he was not aware when the IMF was telling him to capitalize the bank but that was a proactive step to assure the IMF and the world that we mean business and we are not only to going to give you verbal asurances we are going to work by law and I don't know who else h has heard anything to the contrary and I haven't heard anything to the contrary and I do believe that what has been agreed and what was proposed by the finance minister that was approved by parliament and which has become the new mandate for the bank of Ghana and the minister for finance for the recapitalization of bank will be met.
>> So the bank the the the bank the central bank is policy solvent.
>> Yes.
>> But as a bank by itself is it solvent?
>> I am telling you that solveny of a bank is a going concern question.
>> It's a going concern question which is why the recapitalization is okay. So you have to look at you have to look at steps that are taken. If you are satisfied then you can pronounce ongoing con. So so here here's where I'm going with that. When we look at some of the costs incurred by the central bank over the year >> we see personnel cost rise by 44% from 2.28 billion to 3.29 billion. Yes, >> in the same year that the bank is a going concern requiring government recapitalization.
>> Um what justification is there for that?
Where from these um personnel cost rise?
>> So the bank uses personnel.
Have you heard of any financial sector collapse lately?
>> No.
>> Okay. ADB which was for 7 years sitting on regulatory forbearance. When we say regulated forbearance, it is when the regulator looks somewhere and doesn't apply the full extent of its own directive against an entity. So the central bank softened >> its own stance to allow NIB to survive.
Today NIB is one of the most capitalized banks. Okay. Two ADB was struggling.
Today it is one of the most capitalized.
Credential bank was in trouble. It is not anymore. Carl Bank was in trouble.
It's not anymore. In fact, UNMB was in trouble. But have you heard any bank collapse?
>> No.
>> So you think Dr. Addison does that alone? He works with a team. So, so what we employed more people or we increase benefits for people in this context >> we employ technical people to support the work of the bank. Okay. At the end of the day, monetary policy is not a twoman job. Research is not a oneman job. Okay. Financial markets is not a oneman job. M >> so the institutions today fintech fintech is taking over the space and there must be adequate h what do you call it >> controlling that space don't forget that we we just recently passed the virtual asset service providers bill into an act that already exposes a lot of fintech challenges for us and we are trying to build the next generation of team leaders that would help move the bank forward.
And so yes, if Ghanaian sentiment is that this can be done cheaper, we are ready to listen. If they can tell us how that can be done cheaply, why not? We are a listening center.
>> Over over a billion in personnel cost of over in the year and let me ask you and I'm just noting that.
>> Yeah, I agree. But I want to ask you a simple question.
>> How much have you saved on FU since that the so-cal aggressive posture started?
And how many people how much have you seen how many people were employed by the central bank that is costing us over a billion in 2025 over a billion more?
>> I don't know >> in 2025.
>> So are you suggesting that that is your problem? No, I'm I'm I'm suggesting that when the IMF has complained about public sector uh wages, the central bank itself is giving commercial banks very strict um cost um cost management uh uh regulations by itself in a time like this is still decided that it personnel cost will go up by 44%. That is worrying is it not? Yeah, it should be worrying.
But I'm saying that at the end of the day, you need to look at what value did they deliver up to you.
>> We're in this country when some people employed 125 ministers. What value did they deliver? That should be the assessment. What is the value that they deliver to you? The value they have delivered to you is that your prices are not galloping like you said >> and today you are comfortable to say that 3.2 we should even allow it to go up to 5%. You see how Ghanaians when we are comfortable it's easy you know when you're out of the woods that's why I like that come people they have their own way of putting these things let's talk about legal claims >> so I'm coming so I'm all this is about cost right >> it's not about breaking down into the cost but it's about cost and I'm suggesting that one of the ways you assess the performance of an organization is to compare revenue to performance variables.
>> And which performance variables are you comparing? Have you struck the percentage difference between an inflation of 24% to 3.2%. What is what percentage improvement is that?
What percentage improvement? I >> I can't do the math.
>> That is over 300% improvement.
Okay. and you incur a cost of 44% to get that. Have you put together the improvement from 17 cities to 10 cities?
What percentage?
>> It's 11:26 today.
>> Well, we are discussing end year 2025. I think the report is about 2025.
>> It is indeed >> or you are discussing medium term.
>> No, it is indeed.
>> So, let me talk about 2025. You can be discussing medium-term >> but strike the difference and tell me what percentage improvement is that. If you have an interest rate that was hoovering even government itself was borrowing at about uh uh 30 how much was that?
Government was borrowing about 35 36%.
Okay. Today government is borrowing less than 5 6%. What percentage improvement is that?
>> That is how you compare performance against cost. You just don't pick absolute numbers and run with them.
Those political commentators can do that because it suits them, >> right?
>> But a proper analysis cannot ignore the benefit that has been delivered as if cost have no value.
>> But but but the Ghanian people will also want to know how legal claims in the bank >> has gone up by at least 300%. Isaac, central member of parliament and of course chairman of the finance committee in parliament for Steve of
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