The Mathematical Flaw Hiding the Next Market Crash

本站添加: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]It's my impression that these, like what we call fat tail events, like a, you know, October '97 event or something, like they're still it's still correct to think of them as unlikely. They're just They're just far more likely than the traditional statistical distribution that people use >> As you sort of get into these extreme events, that that territory you start seeing more and more probability relative to a normal distribution for more and more extreme events. And so something like, you know, Black Monday 1987 is unlikely. It's also a much more extreme event than you would have expected from from other sort of market moves.