My Biggest WARNING To All BITCOIN Holders For June - Michael Saylor

追加: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Um you know, I think we enjoy keeping everybody guessing. It It definitely makes X a lot more interesting. Um our our view is business as usual here. We're We're kind of matter-of-fact about this.

[00:00:16]The goal of the company is to drive Bitcoin per share and to increase its Bitcoin and increase the enterprise value continuously forever. Um we'll make decisions about how we fund our liabilities week by week, day by day.

[00:00:32]Sometimes we make them minute by minute to tell you the truth. We set algorithms where we're looking at what is what is most long-term advantageous to the company. Are we Are we managing our credit risk? Are we creating Bitcoin per share?

[00:00:50]Um and are we best off to to pay a liability with cash or to pay a liability by issuing equity or to pay a liability by issuing credit or to pay a liability by selling Bitcoin?

[00:01:07]Um we've done a lot of multivariate models and in all the models what we find over the long term is that by far the best thing for the company is to is to engage in a mixture of those four instruments. Any model that we put together that's limited only to equity or only to credit or only to Bitcoin always underperforms.

[00:01:33]So ultimately, the way to think of it is 7 years out we would like to have maximized our Bitcoin per share and what is it that we should be doing now that's going to maximize and optimize the company's performance so that we maxed out Bitcoin per share 7 years from now. And I think it's not unlikely that we'll sell some Bitcoin between now and the end of the year.

[00:02:01]Um, I don't know how much. Um, we still consider these things.

[00:02:05]Uh, but it's also likely that we'll sell a mixture of equity, a mixture of credit. On-chain data published this week confirmed that Bitcoin's February $60,000 low was almost certainly the cycle bottom. Realized cap has stabilized near 1.08 trillion mirroring previous bear market bottom accumulation patterns and funding rates that were deeply negative for months have historically marked capitulation. The $6 billion May 29th options expiry has traders stacking $82,000 call positions while Deribit's Bitcoin open interest has now overtaken BlackRock's IBIT.

[00:02:41]Strategy plans to equitize its convertible debt over the next three to six years rather than selling Bitcoin and Michael Saylor just gave the most detailed technical explanation of STRC's servomechanism stability system that he has ever publicly shared. Let's watch and discover. CoinDesk published the most comprehensive on-chain bottom confirmation analysis of 2026 this week and its conclusion is the most important structural signal for every Bitcoin investor who has been navigating the past three months of recovery volatility. Multiple on-chain and derivatives indicators now suggest that Bitcoin's February 6th low near $60,000 was almost certainly the cycle bottom.

[00:03:19]The analysis covers three independent metrics that have historically confirmed prior cycle lows. First, the realized cap. Bitcoin's realized cap, which measures the total value of all Bitcoin at the price each coin last moved, has stabilized near 1.08 trillion dollars after the heavy wealth destruction of the Iran war drawdown. This stabilization pattern mirrors the accumulation dynamic seen at the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear market bottoms.

[00:03:47]Uh, if you look at those uh, DeFi protocols, let's say there's one with $300 million in it.

[00:03:53]We have $10 billion of AUM in STRC. Um how does the instrument perform when someone wants to sell $300 million or $500 million or a billion of STRC in a single day? Well, we already know the answer.

[00:04:08]It'll trade down 50 to 100 basis points, maybe in the extreme it'll trade down 150 basis points, and someone in our ecosystem, not us, a hedge fund, right? A large hedge fund that has $50 billion or $100 million will step in and they will buy it.

[00:04:26]And and that's why it is so anti-fragile. So, I think that and I think you can see it it seems like we have about a billion dollars to two billion dollars of support when the instrument trades down 75 to 100 basis points, it'll just walk into the market very quickly. But if but if someone were to dump $2 billion of STRC on the market in an hour, right? Let's just take an extreme amount.

[00:04:59]There's you'll see the support for STRC will exponentially increase as the price falls. So, below 99 there's a lot more support. Hedge funds will walk in and buy it buy it because they get a quick 150 basis point gain in a couple of days. Below 98, you will see even more support. Below 97, even more support.

[00:05:23]This is if you study the way ships are designed where they have a a center of gravity and uh the whole point of nautical stability is there's a force, you know, as you push the ship down, there's more force pushing it up, and as the ship sways left or right, there's more force bringing it back. Uh it's basically stability theory. And so, I think what we're not we're not concerned about the fact that someone may decide to sell some large amount of STRC. The instrument's literally designed so that it's insanely profitable for the hedge funds and the other credit investors to buy it that they would if I would have talked to them, there's a lot they will buy it at 97 or 98 if they had the opportunity. They'll sell it at par.

[00:06:14]Right there. They they exist to actually support it back up to par. And when it's trading at $99.98, they don't have much incentive to step into the market. The incentive for all of the third parties that support our ecosystem increases exponentially as it trades further away from par.

[00:06:35]So, you could think about the entire thing as a very elegantly designed servo mechanism where where it's much better than us stepping in to to defend the peg. When the realized cap stops falling and begins to consolidate, it means sellers have exhausted their supply and new buyers are establishing cost bases at the prevailing price. The stabilization near $1.8 trillion means the distribution from higher cost holders to lower cost buyers has completed. Second, perpetual funding rates. Bitcoin's perpetual funding rates remained deeply negative for months during the Iran war, the longest sustained period of negative funding since the 2022 bear market bottom.

[00:07:17]Negative funding means leverage traders were paying a persistent premium to hold short positions. The exhaustion of that short positioning, as confirmed by the funding rate recovery since mid-April, is historically one of the most reliable capitulation signals in Bitcoin's derivatives market. Third, the grand bargain that Raoul Pal predicted has now happened, removing the geopolitical headwind that drove Bitcoin to $60,000 in the first place. Strategy disclosed this week that it plans to equitize its convertible debt over the next 3 to 6 years, converting convertible notes into MSTR equity rather than redeeming them for cash. This is the most consequential financial structure decision Strategy has made since launching STRC, and it directly addresses the bear case that has haunted the company for months. That Strategy would be forced to sell Bitcoin to service or repay its convertible note obligations. By equitizing the convertible debt, converting it into MSTR shares rather than requiring cash repayment, Strategy eliminates the need to sell Bitcoin or raise large amounts of cash to service that particular liability layer.

[00:08:22]I want to thank everybody for your time.

[00:08:24]I think this is just the most exciting year in the history of the industry so far. What we're saying is is Bitcoin and crypto becoming integrated, tradfi and defi becoming integrated, equity capital markets, credit capital markets, and and crypto capital or or or digital capital markets all becoming integrated. Uh we're seeing the entire world rethink a lot of things. It's rethinking banking, banking banks are entering the space. We never thought that we'd see that.

[00:09:05]We're we're going to see tokenized securities, and they're going to be rippling throughout the entire space, and they're already having an impact, and some of these new ideas, as as Fang pointed out, they can go from zero to 500 million in a few weeks. There are going to be ideas that are going to go from zero to a billion or zero to billions of dollars in a year.

[00:09:27]So, I would encourage everyone to first of all focus upon digital credit. Think very hard about STRC because because people's knee-jerk reaction is just to sort of say it's sort of like something else I know that either didn't work or something else I know and I think I know how to put it in a in the right container, but it really is a new thing and it has new implications for everybody, every business and and what we're seeing is the literal digital transformation of a $300 trillion credit market, a $100 trillion equity market, a multi hundred trillion dollar capital market and this is the most exciting time to be alive in this space. So, I you know, to Tuur Demeester's point, if you don't get up at 5:00 a.m. and think real hard about it, when you do get up, think real hard about it. The AIs make it easy to think real hard about it. You can literally take every idea people throw out, put it in the AI and say, "What do you think? Think harder." And so, I I think this is the year where if you have epiphanies and new ideas and you're inspired and excited, then you're doing it right.

[00:10:47]And if you think, "Ah, this is just like every other year," you're missing it. You're You're missing the opportunity and that's a tragedy.

[00:10:56]The supply math consequence is significant. Every Bitcoin that strategy does not need to sell to service convertible note obligations stays in the treasury. Michael Saylor said in his interview that it is not unlikely they will sell some Bitcoin between now and year end, but the convertible debt equitization removes what had been the largest identified forced selling scenario. The residual Bitcoin sales Saylor describes are at strategy's discretion as part of their multivariate optimization, not forced liquidations.

[00:11:26]The $6 billion May 29th options expiry has traders piling into $82,000 Bitcoin calls, Deribit's Bitcoin open interest has overtaken BlackRock's IBIT as traders brace for a showdown between $75,000 max pain and $80,000 call positioning. The combination of confirmed cycle bottom data, strategies debt equitization removing forced sell risk, and the $82,000 call wall for May 29th creates the specific conditions that Saylor identified as prerequisites for the bull market engines firing simultaneously.

[00:12:00]Michael Saylor gave the most technically precise explanation of STRC stability mechanism in his interview, and it is worth understanding in detail because it is the engineering principle that protects every STRC holder and every Bitcoin holder who has wondered whether a large STRC sale could destabilize strategies treasury. He used an analogy from naval architecture, stability theory in ship design. A ship's center of gravity is engineered so that as the ship lists to one side, the buoyancy force increases on the sinking side, restoring the ship to upright. The further the ship tilts, the stronger the restoring force. The further from center, the more the system pushes back towards center.

[00:12:40]STRC is designed with identical principles. The specific numbers Saylor provided when STRC trades at 99 cents, 1 cent below par, there is approximately $1 to $2 billion of hedge fund buying support ready to step into the market.

[00:12:55]When STRC trades at 98 cents, that support exponentially increases. At 97 cents, even more support. The mechanism, hedge funds with $50 to $100 billion in assets are actively looking to buy STRC at discounts to par because buying at 97 or 98 cents and holding until it returns to par is a virtually risk-free 200 to 300 basis point return in days or weeks.

[00:13:19]The hedge funds exist specifically to capture these spreads. Their capital is always available. Their incentive is directly proportional to how far STRC trades from par. The further it falls, the higher their potential profit, the more aggressively they buy. Saylor's conclusion, you could dump $2 billion of STRC on the market in a single hour and the support would be there. Not because strategy is defending the peg, because the arbitrage profit for every hedge fund in the ecosystem increases exponentially as the price falls.

[00:13:48]Michael Saylor's management framework for strategy is built around a single objective, maximize Bitcoin per share over a 7-year horizon. Every financial decision, whether to issue equity, issue credit, sell Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, or use cash, is evaluated against the question, what combination of these actions taken today maximizes the company's Bitcoin holdings per outstanding MSTR share 7 years from now?

[00:14:14]His multivariate modeling has consistently shown that any approach limited to a single instrument, only equity, only credit, only Bitcoin sales, underperforms the mixed approach. The mixture is always better. This means Saylor's statement that it is not unlikely he will sell some Bitcoin before year-end is not a bearish signal.

[00:14:33]It is the mathematically optimal outcome of his 7-year optimization model. The grand bargain that just concluded in Beijing validates Saylor's closing observation in his interview that this is the most exciting year in the history of the industry. Trump flew to Beijing with Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, and Larry Fink. Xi agreed to the framework. The Clarity Act cleared its most important hurdle. Warsh is implementing financial repression.

[00:14:59]Stablecoins are financing the US deficit. Bitcoin is becoming integrated with TradFi. DeFi and equity capital markets are converging. Banks are entering the crypto space. Tokenized securities are rippling through the entire financial system. Saylor said, "Some of these new ideas go from zero to $500 million in a few weeks. There are going to be ideas that go from zero to a billion or billions of dollars in a year. The intelligence economy Raul Pal describes where Anthropic went from $10 billion to $100 billion in revenues in a single year, and the financial economy sailor describes where STRC became the world's most liquid preferred stock in 8 months are both happening simultaneously in the summer of 2026.