Is $TSLA Worth Buying Now or Wait for a Pullback?

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:09]From Cal on your patron, you talked about Tesla moving to a new all-time high in the next few months.

[00:00:14]For those of us light on our retirement bag, 300 shares, should it be all hands on deck at current prices or timed entry at pullbacks? In the long scheme, if the IA sandbag model holds, a 430 versus 340 entry has minimal downside versus no entry at all. So important. So important. And this is the psychology of investing. It's painful to miss out.

[00:00:40]FOMO can also result in pain if you buy a top. Let's talk about a couple of things. First of all, pain of missing out. I wrote an entire substack on this.

[00:00:48]It's so important to get your head in the game. It's a big part of the game is to understand how the reptile brain works and you got to control it.

[00:00:57]But when you miss a train or if you wait for the train to return, imagine it's 3:00 in the afternoon and you sit there at the station thinking it's going to go back to 2:00 p.m. and the train's going to revert back.

[00:01:10]It's never going to happen sometimes.

[00:01:12]And that can be very painful. So yes, you're correct. Sometimes you got to bite the bullet. Now the other thing that's actually happening right now, underlying thesis that ties into SpaceX and Apple and no not SpaceX and Elon Musk industries and Tesla and everything else is the amount of money that's going to flow into Musk industries.

[00:01:31]Now I've got a thesis, okay? And probably other people have this too.

[00:01:36]Diversification. The people with SpaceX bags maybe concerned about the boondoggle to Mars or whatever else.

[00:01:45]But they're going to want to diversify into things that they trust. They work for Elon Musk, they got in they're insiders, they know what he can do.

[00:01:54]Therefore they want to diversify. Maybe they'll sell, get this, they'll sell their their SpaceX stock and buy, guess what? Tesla.

[00:02:06]That's probably going to happen. Either way, there'll be a truckload. I want people to start thinking about this.

[00:02:12]Tesla and SpaceX are all one unit, and the impact on just the passive flows that are coming into this. This is from uh Ross, by the way, Ross Givens for this. I stole his slide. I hope he doesn't mind.

[00:02:28]But, Tesla and SpaceX is the most diversified technology advanced, vertically integrated shop on the planet. No ifs, ands, or buts. I don't care what people say. I don't give a toss what people say. There is nothing like it, and there's nothing close to it.

[00:02:46]And there's nothing close to it to invest in this generation.

[00:02:50]It is literally perfection.

[00:02:53]You couldn't cook up a better story.

[00:02:56]Maybe Nvidia, but Nvidia's picks and shovels.

[00:03:00]We're going into the whole application of AGI and autonomy and humanoids and space and AI data centers and inference everywhere.

[00:03:10]It's wild. But, just taking the combination of SpaceX and Tesla, the combined value, they're pulling in nearly 8% of all passive flows. So, they get this perpetual bid that will keep the price up for both Tesla and SpaceX.

[00:03:24]And I do believe of between from now to 2030, Tesla's undervalued compared to SpaceX. So, take that with a grain of salt or whatever else, but that's $700 billion a year keeping the price of these things high, including post-IPO float. Anyway, let's get back to your cost of waiting.

[00:03:41]And this is the math you have to do for yourself.

[00:03:43]I just lay it out, and then you figure it out. So, a lot of people have been sitting on their hands waiting for 240, 280, sub-300, And we had those prices you know, late last year, early this year, etc. And people think, "Oh, it's only a few months ago. It's going to go right back." That may not happen because the tailwinds that are coming that I keep talking about are insane.

[00:04:05]Off the hook. Look Look at Joe Tegtmeyer's videos. Look at how many cybercabs they're producing right now.

[00:04:12]Off the hook. And they're going to go big bang overnight. No doubt in my mind.

[00:04:17]They have thousands of these puppies now floating all around the country. And we're going to wake up one day and you're going to see them all over the place.

[00:04:24]And that will be the moment where TradFi says, "Oh, crap. I'm under-allocated to this Elon Corp, whatever you want to call it." Anyway, the bullet you got to bite right now is where? You buy it 436. So, if you got to get 300 shares, that'll cost you $130,000.

[00:04:42]Okay? At a $3,000 target, which I think we easily achieve in whatever form, remember, at one stage, by 2027, 2028, Tesla could possibly be part of SpaceX. And you will have Musconomy, Musk Industries.

[00:04:57]What was it called here?

[00:04:59]Elon Corp, whatever you want to call it.

[00:05:01]You're going to have a piece of that.

[00:05:02]And by the way, Elon derangement syndrome is at an all-time high right now.

[00:05:05]>> [laughter] >> It's It's just fun to watch. Fun to watch people lose their minds. And don't lose your mind in the markets because human mind is very fragile. You got to keep it strong. Be ready for everything.

[00:05:15]Okay, 400 bucks, you get a modest dip.

[00:05:18]Highly possible we hit 400 again. 300 shares cost you 120 grand. I mean, we've been buying Teslas in $17, $106, etc. So, it gets more and more expensive over time. No doubt about that. But the opportunity also gets a lot bigger.

[00:05:34]So, uh 120 grand for $400 a stock price, you buy 327 shares with 130k. So, if you wait, you get 27 shares more than 300.

[00:05:46]And your target basically, if we go to 3000 it'll be 981,000 we close that magical million dollars.

[00:05:52]Your ROI would be 717%.

[00:05:55]If we get that 350 deeper pullback, that would take a black swan.

[00:06:00]Huge black swan, 105k for 373 shares.

[00:06:04]And then you'll eventually get to 1.1 2 million dollars.

[00:06:08]And then the $300 big correction is going to happen maybe a 1% 2% chance but you cannot wait for that. You got to do everything in layers. 300 bucks may never happen again as long as we live.

[00:06:18]If it does happen, it means a cyber cab robo taxi FSD has failed and the humanoid robot sucks.

[00:06:25]And nobody bought the Tesla semi.

[00:06:27]And mega pack stopped selling all together.

[00:06:29]The odds of this are 1% chance, maybe less.

[00:06:33]It's kind of I put that on par with Bitcoin going to zero. Just for perspective. But if you do get that $300 buy, means we've got bigger problems.

[00:06:42]>> [laughter] >> So you may not want to buy if we do go back to 300 bucks.

[00:06:46]But if that magical dip happens like a C19 type situation, it'll cost you 90 grand and that [clears throat] will turn into 1.3 million dollars. That's the magic.

[00:06:55]That's why I always stress getting early, getting hard because that's the impact on the ROI. So everything's up to you. Now let's look at the roller coaster ride that we've enjoyed the last 5 years.

[00:07:07]Which is which is great. And people people keep on saying oh Tesla hasn't gone anywhere in 5 years, it's flat. No, it's not. It's up 190 109% over the last 5 years.

[00:07:16]But that's not how you need to look at a stock.

[00:07:19]It's why it's so important to bottom fish and buy dips. So important, okay?

[00:07:24]Six years ago, you could have bought this puppy at $17.

[00:07:28]Little over 3 years ago, you could have bought it at 106 bucks. Now it's like circa 440.

[00:07:34]Give or take a few dollars.

[00:07:36]Again, but the dips that we've had, mark them all out here where people have capitulated. Shout out to the capitulators. Ross Gerbil, Gary Black, Meet Kevin, and a whole bunch more. They couldn't take the pain.

[00:07:50]They couldn't take the pain. When they are capitulating, I'm selling kidneys to buy with both hands. Okay? And then we had that big glorious dip down to whatever it was, 300 bucks. I can't remember where it was. That was uh March April 2024.

[00:08:09]The tariff tantrums. Anyway, since [clears throat] then, the gradual trend has been up. But if you uh find a winning asset, what I urge you all to do is set up a simple chart like this and just wait for those dips.

[00:08:21]They come every 3 to 6 months. And wait.

[00:08:25]Will we get a big one to fulfill your needs? $400 modest dip? Yes, possible, very possible. 350?

[00:08:33]Quite possible. 300 bucks? Highly unlikely.

[00:08:36]1 or 2% chance we have we get that. And if we do, all well and good.

[00:08:41]So, that is uh the story, what to do.

[00:08:44]Run the table.

[00:08:46]Run your expected values. Find out how much you have now, how much you need, and look at the future price predictions, and decide where you want to be in the future. That's it.

[00:09:06]>> [bell]