BITCOIN: The Bear Market Only Ends If $100,000 Is Broken (Objective Fact)

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]We are seeing one of the most aggressive S&P 500 rallies in human history. And that's a simple fact. The S&P 500 simply should not be moving up 12% in a matter of 2 weeks, less than 2 weeks. That shouldn't be happening. That does not happen under normal circumstances. And given these unique circumstances, we're actually seeing some relief on Bitcoin as well. For example, we had a symmetrical triangle formation on Bitcoin which broke to the upside with a clean resistance support flip. That is good news for Bitcoin. However, I want to kind of sober people up in this video. I want to give you the rundown on why this isn't the be all end all uh for Bitcoin reversal and Bitcoin bullishness, why it actually hasn't changed much at all. And I want to very simply state to you in this video what actually matters in reversing the trend for Bitcoin. At what point would Bitcoin cross the line and be bullish again?

[00:00:52]Right? That's the simple question. And this is coming from someone who rarely takes uh structural analysis very very seriously. I'm not one of these people who relies on intuition or relies on indicators that suggest various things at various different times. And there's lots of analysts like that who in my view trust lowquality evidence. I'm trusting the foundations, the bare bones, uh kind of the 101 um ground.0 of what TA actually is. And that is rangebound analysis. So what I'm going to do is I'm going to look at this cycle. I'm going to compare it to 2022.

[00:01:25]Going to compare it to 2018. Going to compare it to 2014. Each of these bare markets have one distinctive quality.

[00:01:32]And that is this. We never ever see higher highs on a structural basis in a bare market. If we were to see a higher high in this bare market, that would be the end of the bare market. So, what price would that come at and what would that look like if it was to occur? We'll look into it in this video. In understanding what needs to happen for a bullish reversal to come, you're also understanding the parameters of what is normal bare market price action and hence you're understanding what the hell is going on cuz most people simply don't know. Before we dive in, check out the Bitunix exchange. It's global. It's non KYC and it's never been hacked before.

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[00:02:32]So, sign up from anywhere in the world with my link down below and you'll get a 15% lifetime trading fee discount just with that link. You'll be helping out the channel immensely, and I appreciate it. S&P rally, Bitcoin bouncing off major support zones like these two lines, Bitcoin breaking symmetrical triangle formations. We can look into all these things individually and we have done so by the way so many times.

[00:02:55]We can say, for example, that support is just support. It's not necessarily an indicative of reversal. There's always going to be support zones, and support zones very often break. We can say that the S&P 500 and Bitcoin's correlation has been the weakest it's ever been over the last year. And although the S&P is at new highs, Bitcoin hasn't even broken its price range. And we can say that yes, we have seen a triangle breakout.

[00:03:16]What we've also seen is right now a potential ascending channel formation.

[00:03:19]So every bullish argument you can give me uh kind of has a bearish counterargument, right? And this is why we kind of get lost and a lot of people get lost in the murkiness of focusing on basically what I would call sensationalist arguments, right? They're arguments that are easy to sell to people. It's easy to say that, oh look, there's a seven-year support line on Bitcoin. It's easy to say, "Oh, the S&P 500 is rallying the the highest it's ever been um and the fastest they've ever seen." But when you actually put them up to scrutiny and you put them under the fire, uh they don't hold up and they all have very good counter arguments. Here's something that's a bit more infallible. Here's something which I think uh we can get a lot more from rather than just kind of falling into the the pitfalls of pleasing the algorithm and that is rangebound and structural analysis. Basically, technical analysis can be boiled down into two things. one bare market and two bull market. And within bull markets and bare markets, what we see are structural ranges that form. And those structural ranges have patterns which are characteristic of whether we're in a bare market or a bull market. So, for example, a typical bare market structure is lower low, lower lows, right? Here's the lows and here's the highs. Notice that the high, this is the high right here, is lower each time and the low uh is is lower each time. Right? That's a typical bare market structural formation. We have price ranges that form. So here's one range right there.

[00:04:43]Here's another range right here. Here's another range right here. And within the consolidation of those ranges, we're seeing on a broader scale lower highs and lower lows. That's a typical bare market structure. A typical bull market structure is exactly what I just described, but reverse. If we reverse the chart, uh just for argument sake, imagine that we're moving upwards here.

[00:05:02]It would be uh the lows over here, okay?

[00:05:05]And the highs over here. So structural range is still forming in the same exact way. We've still got rangebound resistance and support, but each time the highs and the lows are getting lower in higher, sorry, instead of getting lower, which is what would be in a bare market. So this is the main reason that saying we're in a bare market isn't a subjective claim. It's an objective uh observation of a fact, right? We are in bare markets when we see on a macro scale lower lows and lower highs. And the only thing that is debatable about that is what are price ranges, right?

[00:05:36]What con constitutes a price range?

[00:05:38]Because in order to have a low and a high, you need to identify the price range in which the lows and highs are formed. Uh for example, this is a price range here. We're lurking between these two levels. This is a price range here.

[00:05:48]We're lurking between these two levels.

[00:05:50]If we can agree on that, we can agree that this is the low of the price range.

[00:05:53]This is the low of the price range. This is the high of the price range. This is the high of the price range. Therefore, we can identify, right? uh lower highs and we can identify lower lows. Now, I would argue that identifying ranges isn't subjective either. I would argue it's objective and I would argue it's an issue of issue of knowledge and skill. A lot of people don't know how to identify ranges. Range identification is not only based on observational data, but it's also based on things like liquidity. So if we take a look at the visible range volume profile, what we notice is that volume stacks heavily towards the center of the range and it tapers off massively towards the edges of the range. So the top of the range, as you can see, if we can go through the ranges of this bare market so far, there's the top of the range. There's the bottom of the range roughly around here. Right? There's the bottom of this range. There's the bottom of this range. Look how that lines up perfectly with the volume profile. Look at each little range has its own segment of volume spikes within the profile and each top and bottom of the range has its own dip in volume spikes uh in the volume profile. Right? This is objectively pro objective proof um that the rangebound resistance and support zones that I've identified on the screen here and hence the identification of the ranges themselves is is true. It's real.

[00:07:07]It's not subjective. It's not a claim.

[00:07:09]It's just simply a fact. So, now that we've established that rangebound analysis is really the only objective thing about TA, uh we can kind of take a look at what needs to happen in order for Bitcoin to flip into a bull market again. And it's a bit more complicated than oh, Bitcoin needs to break above uh the current price range because if we look at prior bare markets, we can see that actually well, Bitcoin has broken into um price ranges that it previously occupied before and it didn't lead to a trend reversal entirely. Here's a good example of that. Right. So we had a price range roughly something like this.

[00:07:43]We were lurking below. We even test test tested for resistance and then we broke up into that price range very deep into it before coming back down again. Um so that's an example of uh a price range being disrespected in a bare market or breaking into a prior price range in a bare market and it didn't end the bare market entirely. So you might be expecting me to sit here and say that oh Bitcoin breaking $80,000 which is the top of the current price range would end the bare market and put us back in a bull market. No, it's not that simple.

[00:08:10]And I'll tell you the quick reason why.

[00:08:12]The quick reason why is this. Okay, what did I say before? I said a bare market is lower lows, okay, and lower highs. A bull market is higher lows, right? And higher highs. Now, if we broke into the prior price range, we broke $80,000. All we would be doing is we would be increasing the chance of seeing a higher low. Okay? but we wouldn't necessarily have a higher high. And so in order to fully flip the structural foundation of what a bare market is, we'd need to be seeing a higher high and a higher low.

[00:08:46]And hence, we'd actually need to be seeing a break of $100,000 because breaking $100,000 is the only way we could possibly achieve a higher high again. And hence the only way we could possibly have a structural reversal.

[00:08:58]Now, I could go through every single range of prior bare markets and give you countless examples of how this is true, but I simply need to give you the one example. The one example from 2018, which I already did. We broke above the price range, the bounds of the price range here in 2018. We broke above it.

[00:09:16]We did not see a higher high. We came back downwards. We saw a higher low, but it wasn't enough and we flipped back into a downwards trend. I'll say the conclusion one more time. In order to see a properly established trend reversal, an objective trend reversal, not a subjective one, not something based on flimsy data, not something based on an indicator, you fundamentally need to be seeing a higher high. And with an higher high comes a higher low eventually, right? So, a higher high is the main objective. Seeing a break of $80,000 would be a step in the right direction, right? It would be a re-entrance into the prior range, but it would not be the whole equation, unfortunately. Uh, and it sounds, you know, I'm it sounds annoying to some people. It sounds like I'm deflecting to some people, I'm sure, but this is just objective fact, and you can disagree with if you want to. I've established why it's subjective in the introduction.

[00:10:03]I've established why it's objective throughout the video in order to see an actual trend reversal, which is going to be confirming that we are no longer in a bare market and hence no longer in the fourear cycle. we literally would need to see a break of around $100,000, which is the top of the prior price range and hence the point which we'd establish a higher high. That's the simple rundown.

[00:10:24]Now, this $80,000 level we're approaching is a major resistance zone and breaking it would be great. It'd be a step in the right direction, but it simply wouldn't be enough. And I actually think there's a very solid argument to make that this level will hold its resistance. uh even given everything I've said in this video as to why it won't be enough to confirm a bull market. I still think it's a very significant level uh that should be defended quite aggressively by the bears. We'll see. It's not unconventional at all. Uh if Bitcoin broke $80,000, we did the exact same thing in 2018. Uh in regards to the price range that I showed you before, it would definitely make the situation a bit more harder to analyze and a bit more hard to read because we do have, for example, the fractal, which we're looking at between now and 2022. And if we broke $80,000, that would break that fractal and put us a bit in the dark.

[00:11:08]But again, it wouldn't necessarily end the bare market outright. And it wouldn't necessarily uh break the 4year cycle outright. So if anyone tries to tell you that we'd see a trend reversal confirmed at any price below $100,000, I genuinely think they simply do not understand uh how objective rangebound analysis is. they probably don't know how to do it themselves and they're probably just giving you a sensationalist take. Now, we can get, you know, in a position in which we can say, "Oh, it's likely the bare market will end." You know, if Bitcoin comes to $94,000, maybe we start saying it's likely, but it wouldn't be absolutely confirmed yet. So, I think I've said everything I need to say in this video, and obviously in the next video, I'll give you a rundown on the actual medium-term and short-term price action.

[00:11:53]I just wanted to make the ground rules very clear for how I think um an end to a bare market would would materialize and what it would look like. I'm currently still bearish. I think we're in a 4ear cycle bare market because none of this has actually happened yet. So, thank you for watching, guys. I hope you enjoyed. Let me know what you think down below. If you enjoyed the video, leave a like and comment, subscribe, join our group chat, by the way. It's free to join and it's better than YouTube comments these days because YouTube comments are just filled with bots, unfortunately. Um and if you're interested, check out the Betunix exchange. If you use my referral link down below to sign up, you'll get a 15% lifetime trading fee discount, making it the cheapest exchange on the market with that discount. Probably certainly the cheapest exchange that has never been hacked before uh and is global non KYC, I think. Uh you know, so global non KYC, never been hacked. Discount with the link. You're helping out the channel itself. Uh you know, why wouldn't you?

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