FP Markets Live Webinar: Gold trading masterclass: Market structure & technical targets

Added: 2026-05-07

[00:00:05]All right. So, a welcome everyone. Um, I've got one eye on the FOMC rate decision and uh one eye on this uh presentation. So, yes uh welcome everyone and thanks so much for joining us today. Um I'm really glad to have you here in what I think uh would be will be a genuinely useful session for those who are looking to begin trading in gold and uh may even offer something for those um who are already trading in gold. So my name is Aaron Hill and I am the chief market analyst here at FP market. So the presentation today um on gold trading uh market structure and technical t target targets should be no longer than should be should be between 40 minutes to an hour um but the webinar will be recorded on YouTube um for you to watch at your leisure uh following this uh presentation. Look guys I'm happy to accept questions as I pro progress but if you prefer to wait till the end uh that is also perfectly fine with me.

[00:01:06]Disclaimer guys, as usual, the information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs. I'm not going to read all of that, guys. Suffice it suffice it to say um that uh this is not uh financial advice. It's um an educational presentation. And the Fed leaves rates unchanged. It's all about power, guys. It's all about power. um Jerome Pal that is the Fed chief. Um the agenda for this evening is um look this is exactly what we're going to cover.

[00:01:42]We're going to un understand what gold's market structure is. We're going to then look at the yellow metal's key drivers which is very important because uh lately gold hasn't really been performing that well as a safe haven as I'm sure you've seen. Then we're going to look at technical support and resistance uh currently in view. And then we'll look over to um handing the floor over to uh Q a Q&A session. But by the end of today, you should clearly understand what gold's market structure is, what its key drivers are, and the key technical support in the market right now.

[00:02:23]So to begin with, we're going to look at um market structure. Now um when traders talk about market structure they it can mean a couple of things it but keeping things simple uh we're essentially describing the architecture of uh price action um the sequence of highs the sequence of lows and that this tells us whether buyers or sellers are in control at any given moment.

[00:02:53]This is a simple characterization of um of actively traded markets. So you can use this kind of structure for any for any actively traded market. And at the very least it can be viewed in three phases. This is very basic guys for for anyone that's new to trading. It can be viewed as an uptrend. It can be viewed as a downtrend and it can be be viewed as a rangebound uh market which is essentially a market that is fluctuating between support and resistance.

[00:03:23]um rather than a determined up or downward trend. And for many of us, understanding uh these three phases is often sufficient to navigate the market on a basic level. But I believe it is very very very important to understand where your traded market is is um is moving in the bigger picture.

[00:03:47]um as a if you think about it a breakout on the lower time frames or a breakout higher on the lower lower time frames may appear a higher higher probability scenario. But if your tra if your if your breakout above a key resistance level is is smack bang into a higher time frame resistance, well then you've got very your your odds of a successful trade are severely diminished on the back of that. So it's always key to understand where you are trading in the bigger picture. And this can also be the same as um look a strong uptrend on the higher time frame doesn't mean every move on the lower time frames is a buy signal. We will go into more detail um about this nearer the end.

[00:04:34]Now you could take this a step further and you could look at um accumulation um markup distribution and markdown. For me personally though, I I I rarely look at this and I as long as you understand the overall pitch. Are we trending? Are we are we in a downtrend or are we rangebound? This is generally enough uh to work with in in my opinion.

[00:04:59]Now second we have the um lower time frame structure. So what's unfolding on the H4 time frames uh the hourly charts and even lower the um 30 minute 15 minute 5 minute and and so on. So the 4hour chart and H1 chart is is really where is really where a swing trader entries and exits live. Um and they use the higher time frames to to to gauge their um the the bigger picture.

[00:05:33]So of course there is um so we have swing trading, we have position trading.

[00:05:36]These are your more higher time frame um or longerterm trading styles. Then we have um swing trading and sorry we have scalping and day trading. This is more shorter term and what you'll often find is those types of traders will use the H1, maybe even the H4 as their higher time frame guide, but they'll they'll take their entries and exits on the M5, so the 5minute chart, maybe even the 15minute chart for day trading. But for scalping, it's generally the five minute chart and lower. Um I'm primarily a scalper but I use a combination of macroeconomic ana macro analysis and technicals to trade out of risk events.

[00:06:16]This is my preferred way of um navigating the markets.

[00:06:21]But there's two they are the key ways of um key way key trading styles of the U market. So right now on gold as you can see here we have the monthly time frame, weekly time frame and H4 time frame.

[00:06:34]where we are from my point of view on a very basic level gold is operating in a welldefined I mean a well- definfined uptrend on the monthly time frame it's an un undeniable fact I mean the move has been parabolic we're up at we were at one point up 230% from the lows down in November 2022 um and the weekly time frame I mean the weekly time frame is showing a persistent trend right persistent trend of higher highs So we have higher highs, higher lows. These are the um meaningful corrective phases. So we have a higher high, higher low, uh higher high, higher low. But this is where it gets interesting. This is where on the weekly time frame we are starting to see signs, this is where I've numbered it. We are starting to see signs of um sellers coming in, entering the frey.

[00:07:27]And this was primarily on the back of March where we lost I think it was around 12% on gold during the um US Iran conflict. As you can see here we had the higher high at one point.1 we had a potential higher low at two. Then we had a failure to reach another higher high at 3. And this now is a lower high. This is your um subsequent lower low. So we have the early stages of a downtrend forming on the weekly time frame. So this is not a great sign. Um but it doesn't necessarily mean that we are uh this is a structural bearish trend because I still believe that there are structural drivers supporting the price of gold right now. And I don't believe that this is a long-term correction but you know a bare market by any uh stretch.

[00:08:18]So I also want to point out something that um I get this this question is asked a lot um and understandably so. Where is where are gold prices derived from? We all know we we all know the FX market.

[00:08:35]So forex prices are derived from the interbank market. Those big players where they um throw bid and ask prices between each other. those prices are then filtered down to uh retail FX brokers like FB markets and things like that. With gold, there are a number of different um it the gold spot price emerges from uh three distinct uh market layers. Um it's not really a single source, but as you can see on the screen here, I have the ComX um uh gold futures contract. Um the futures market is the dominant intraday force uh and is um so the spot gold price is derived from the nearest uh month gold futures contract with the most volume. So this could be the front month uh futures contract or it could be a month or two on the um out on the time horizon. now because the comx comx futures um market is is is fast to react uh to new information and quickly incorporates it into the gold prices. Uh the spot gold price is actually derived from futures prices even though in theory futures prices should be determined using the spot price. So in short um the spot price follows the futures price. So it's derived from uh the uh front month futures contract not the other way round.

[00:10:05]Then we have um we have uh the LBMA. Now this is interesting because um this is something I I don't see many many really um and quite rightly so as traders we we we just need to know that the spot price of gold is derived from the nearest month gold futures contract. But the LBMA the um uh one second bear with me guys. the LBMA precious metals prices. And now this is set via a uh auction twice daily at AM and PM and it serves as a a global um valuation benchmark. It is the reference used for physical uh settlement. It doesn't drive intraday momentum but it anchors the entire systems um valuation baseline. As you can see here, the LBMA gold and silver price Ben benchmarks are the global benchmark for prices for unallocated gold and silver. So this is another key thing you should really pay attention to but uh or should really understand. Um then we have the OTC market. Uh this is where the real uh where the real price is actually executed. Now the OTC market is described as the or can be described as the layer of where the actual price of gold is traded. So where LBMA benchmarks what I'm showing on the screen that uh now and the COMX futures signals uh physical supply chains regional logistics uh balance sheets and credit conditions all converge into a single exe executable institutional price. Um so we have three layers really. We have the futures price, we have the LBMA um price benchmarks and then we have the OTC markets. But really the key hierarchy here is um milliseconds to minutes would be the COMX futures, ComX dominates, daily settlement LBMA and execution reality.

[00:12:08]This is in the OTC market between two parties is um where it all comes together for those um OTC uh um trades if you will. Now where um so this has been a an interesting an interesting um this has been interesting given that the price of gold has moved has been counterintuitive during the US Iran conflict and there are a couple of good reasons why gold has moved at an unexpected um in an unexpected direction given the uh US Iran conflict.

[00:12:53]So on the screen right now we have the gold price. This is the daily time frame. The gold price is in orange and we have the 10year tips yield in blue. The single most important driver for gold is real interest rates.

[00:13:11]Undoubtedly uh more specifically real interest rates. Um, you see, it's um it's incredibly vital to understand that gold is a physical asset. I'm I'm sure most of us understand this already, but just for anyone that's new to gold trading, gold is a physical asset. It it it pays no yield um interest or dividends because it is a um a non-productive physical commodity rather than a financial asset. So, it's unlike stocks, right, which represents earnings or bonds, which pays um interest on on on loans. Gold is essentially a it's a sterile a sterile asset that sits in a vault and really generates no cash flow uh and creates no new value. Instead, it acts as a um a long-term store of value or or a hedge uh which I will get to shortly.

[00:14:09]Um so this is something to really when you understand the the logistics of gold it should make more sense. So when real rates are rising so when real interest rates are on the um advance the opportunity cost of holding gold increases which is um typically bearish for gold. Um so um when real rates are negative or or they are um decreasing uh gold becomes far more attractive as a store of value.

[00:14:41]So one way of tracking the um real interest rates is through tips and this is the um treasury inflation protected securities. That's what it stands for.

[00:14:52]Um, the 10-year tips, which I have on the screen here, is the gold standard for gold traders because it matches the long-term investment horizon for most gold traders. So, the blue, as again, the blue line here represents the 10-year uh uh tip yield and the orange line represents the spot gold price.

[00:15:12]Now traders do not um traders do not calculate the tip yield to find the the the real interest rate. You can do that. I will show you how in a minute. Uh the tip shield is is the real rate guys. it. If the screen on the 10-year TIPS shows as it is now 1 uh 1.9% rounded, that means if you buy it today, if you buy the um TIPS bond today, you are guaranteed to earn above uh whatever inflation uh turns out to be.

[00:15:50]If you're interested guys, the tips is calculated by taking the difference between nominal nominal yields and inflation expectations. This leaves us with what's known as the real yield.

[00:16:03]For example, if as you can see here, if the Treasury yield is at 10 4.5%.

[00:16:10]And the market expects inflation to average 2.5% over the next decade at the 10-year uh tips. the 10-year tip uh sorry the the inflation sorry guys I've just confused you there the inflation to average two 2.5% over the next decade the 10-year tip yield would be roughly 2% now if you're anything like me you may be wondering where the 2.5% over the next decade really comes from and this isn't a figure that's pulled from thin air it's actually a live calculation derived from the bond market, specifically the 10-year break even, as you can see on the screen here, guys, the 10-year break even inflation rate, which is available to anyone, guys. It's a free service, Fred uh St. Louis.

[00:16:58]Um, look guys, to get the break even inflation rate, you can just go to this site, but to get the the break even inflation rate, you must subtract the real yield on an inflation um indexed bond such as TIPS from the nominal yield of a fixed rate bond with the same maturity.

[00:17:21]So the break even inflation rate represents a measure of as you can see here guys I've highlighted it a measure of expected inflation during the sorry about that just close that window so it represents a measure of expected inflation then um then to calculate the then to calculate the break even inflation rate this is where you take the nominal uh you you subtract the nominal yield from tips to get the uh break even inflation rate.

[00:17:57]You don't really need to know that because you have that derived uh there for you. So to really summarize this, we can think about it like this. To get tips to get the tips yield, we subtract nominal yield from the BA uh break even inflation rate to get the real yield or real inflation rate. You see what this does is it removes inflation and gives us the real rate of return. To get the break even inflation rate, which you see on your screen right now, which we know is a measure of expected inflation, we subtract nominal yield from tips. And by doing this, we essentially remove the real return to get expected inflation.

[00:18:34]Sorry. Look guys, I'm terribly sorry for diverging somewhat there, but the takehome really is as a gold trader, you watch tip shield.

[00:18:44]You watch the shield closely. I do um as it's the most accurate live price for the real cost of money. So when the market bids um uh tip yields lower, so when the market bids those bonds, tips yields fall or or decrease.

[00:19:04]And this generally this means uh um demand before protection is up and gold usually rallies. Uh when the yield when the yield is um when the yield is rallying you tend to see gold uh turn to the downside. So there's an inverse correlation here which you can pretty much see on the chart here. You see tips is uh rolling over to the downside here.

[00:19:28]Then we see gold take off higher. It's not a perfect correlation, but it's definitely something you should be uh watching very very closely. Gold tops here um and then um sorry, yields bottom, gold's gold rolls over to to the downside and you can see it again and again. So we have uh yields topping, gold bottoming and so on and so forth.

[00:19:54]Now the the US dollar is another major driver of course. Um so per the US dollar index this is the dollar index chart here and this is the value of the US dollar versus six international currencies. Um so the green bag as you can see on the monthly chart to the left here added uh 2.3% in the month of March. This was really the only safe haven asset out there. gold underperformed by around I mean look guys we can we can try and find the gold price now let me just try because I forgot how much it actually decreased so it's nearly 12% in terms of uh in March but uh the US dollar rallied 2.3% and as I said this was really the only safe haven asset in play and this as you can probably see here reached a 10-month high of uh 100.6 64 and really extended February's modest uh.5% appreciation.

[00:20:59]Now, one of the primary drivers behind the dollar strength was geopolitical safe haven demand. So, following the US and Israel's strike on Iran in late February, uh investor investors shifted into safer assets which and they clearly favored the um dollar's liquidity.

[00:21:18]Another driver what for the dollar upside of course was the hawkish shift in Fed um expectations after investors really unwound all of those rate cut bets. I mean if you if you cast your mind back to heading into this year I mean mark futures markets were pricing in around I think it was two or three rate cuts.

[00:21:42]We're now looking at none. But it did at a point go uh they were pricing in rate hikes. Uh that's changed. Um right now I think it's around three basis points of easing implied by year end. So they're really not expecting much right now.

[00:21:58]What makes this um what makes this particularly particularly interesting uh is that geopolitical uncertainty uh tends to attract safe haven flows across both across both gold and the US dollar despite despite gold and the dollar as we can see in um I think there's a chart here with gold there we go despite gold uh having an inverse correlation with the US dollar we the dollar demand can become sufficiently forceful and work against gold which I believe was one of the um key headwinds for the metal during March. Now also important is an increase in the go in the dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers uh which ultimately I believe also weighed on the precious metal. So so gold is priced in US dollar globally. So when the greenback strengthens um the purchasing power of foreign buyers is essentially reduced.

[00:23:08]Now this result can um can weigh on gold prices and explains part of this correlation.

[00:23:17]So why did gold underperform as a safe haven during the the early month of March uh the Middle East conflict? I believe it's it's down to an increase in real yields. I mean you only have to look at the 10-year tips uh rate during the month of March. I mean, look, let me highlight this. It was all here. So, you can see real yields were uh uh strongly higher, strongly rising.

[00:23:49]Um, and uh this was one of the headwinds for gold. This coupled with the dollar strength which I've just shown on this chart here. The dollar strength it doesn't look much on this chart but if you go to the daily time frame you'll see that gold was uh strongly higher oops sorry guys was was strongly higher during the month of March. So it's all this move here at this point here.

[00:24:17]So coupled with the dollar strength on the back of haven flows as well, it just proved too much of a headwind for the yellow metal.

[00:24:28]Another thing I I really thought was interesting which really underpinned the uh the yellow metal uh is central bank buying. Now this this is a driver that's become increasingly increasingly important in recent years. Now central banks particularly in emerging markets which which I'll show shortly have been significant buyers of gold um as they divers diversify away from dollar denominated reserves. This creates a structural demand flaw for uh beneath the market of gold that really doesn't show up in um daily price action but matters it matters enormously uh for the long-term structural picture. So when you see gold holding up in environments that should be bearish uh higher real rates, strong dollar, central bank demand is often is often the uh should I say the silent bid. So as you can see on this, this is part of the refinitive package here guys, the LSEG uh workspace. So the reported changes as you can see at the top here. This is the central bank buying for um uh gold shows specific monthly um shows the specific monthly flows. You can see concentrated activity in Europe. Right?

[00:25:54]There's concentrated activity in Europe and this is partly because of I believe largely because of Poland. Um we also have quite significant demand from Asia uh and China supporting the idea that emerging markets are the primary movers behind central bank buying. We then have cumulative purchases. U this is the uh middle left chart here guys. Um, and this compares the 2026, this is the pink line here, guys. Um, or red line if you will, current year. And, um, sorry guys, the current year is here. Um, this compares the 2026 to previous record-breaking years.

[00:26:37]So, 2023 and uh, 24 and 25. Um it illustrates that while prices are as you can see the trends are higher here guys but it it really illustrates that while prices are at record highs gold spot gold prices are have just come off record highs the volume of buying remains sign significantly above historical averages and this creates that the pricing flaw the silent bid if you will. So this is something I found very interesting. So we have higher real rates, US tips, we have strong uh dollar bid and we have central bank buying. It's all really um uh should be the should underpin the price of gold.

[00:27:25]Now if um now that we understand what's what's really what the key drivers are behind gold both structurally and fundamentally let's look at exactly um exactly what uh the where those drivers are expressed on the chart and the technical levels that really matter right now. So, as I said, US TIPS 10-year yield, I haven't said this, excuse me, guys. US Tips 10-year yield bottoming. So, you can see on this chart, the 10-year yields are bottoming.

[00:27:59]For anyone that follows technical analysis, you will note that this, I would say, is um is is almost a double bottom. I mean, it's perfect double bottom on potentially a perfect double bottom on this line chart here with the neckline there on tips. So, we have tips bottoming out, potentially bottoming out. The dollar catching a bid and oil, I mean, guys, have you seen the price of oil?

[00:28:27]Wow. I mean, spot spot WTI spot is up 7%. Brent is up 6%. I mean, this is the $100 barrel mark. $100 a barrel. It's just insane. I think this is all down to Trump refusing Iran's interim proposal according to the news uh flow. But it's just insane the price move. I mean uh Brent is you know on on course to notch up its third consecutive session above $100 a barrel. I mean inflation expectations are going to increase on the back of this. It's just chaos in the oil markets right now.

[00:29:07]But where where I am technically on the price of gold right now. So if we cast our mind back to this chart here, we know the weekly time frame. Look, I'm you can't really get much from the monthly time frame. It is parabolic. We know we're in an uptrend, but I see very little key support. We're off alltime highs at this point here on the monthly there, guys. But on the weekly, we do see some structural breakdown in the trend here, noted by points 1, 2, 3, and four. or for anyone that watches the AB equals CD uh patterns, you will note that this is a a a very nice looking AB equals CD pattern. But I think that has reached its first upside target. Let me just let me just find that now. I believe it has.

[00:29:54]So remember, yes. So we've easily reached that 38.2%.

[00:29:58]And uh the next one would have been the 61.8, but I think we missed that. So yeah, we've missed that. We've we reacted nicely from that AB equals C. Let me just draw that in guys because just in case anyone's unaware of what I'm talking about. So we have an A B C D pattern there. And then we and then it's common to target the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios derived from legs um A to D. So we've hit that 38.2% very easily. And then we've just I mean it's probably 50% retracement we've hit there. But it's easily enough to lock in some partial profits and reduce risk to break even. But overall we are seeing some structural breakdown. As I said um we are in the midst of an early uh downtrend. We've had that higher high there, higher low, failure to make a higher high at this point here and then we've had that lower low. So this is and then we've had a potential lower high at this point here. I should have put 0.5 there. And if we continue lower below the 23rd of March low of 4098, then we are in, you know, we we're seeing some progress in the um in a downside buyers here, guys. So, knowing that where we are on the weekly time frame, this is the daily time frame. So, let me just delete this right now and and stick with the technicals.

[00:31:28]Oops. I'm sorry, guys.

[00:31:31]There we go. So technically this is the daily time frame here guys. So knowing the weekly time frame is showing weakness in terms of trend. The daily chart recently rejected this very very very nice looking resistance area. Now this is this is composed of a monthly opening level. So for anyone that's seen my support and resistance uh webinars um guys chair power is just about to speak. So for anyone that's watching that, do have that turned on because that could be a very market very much a market moving um uh event.

[00:32:07]Anyway, so gold right now where we are technically gold has just rejected a nice looking resistance area of 4,883 and a 1M resistance. Guys, if you've not watched my support and resistance webinar, please do go ahead and do that.

[00:32:21]I explain what the 1M resistance, 1M resistance, 3M resistance or supports, the one-year supports. These are very simple and very effective as a in a nutshell. In a nutshell, we I look at the opening levels. Let me just go over it just really quickly. It' be easier for for you guys to follow along. So I I how I analyze objective support and resistance levels.

[00:32:48]This is the clearest way I found of finding support and resistance convergence. So I start with the 12M the the yearly chart. I then note the opening levels for one year levels. So I mark that and then I look there's no more. So I then go down to the six-month chart. I then mark the six-month opening levels.

[00:33:11]I then go down to the threemon chart. So it's a quarterly chart. I then mark the three month supports. Three month supports only closing candles, guys. 3 month support, three month support. Here it's still an active candle, so you can't really mark that. So, we've marked all of those and then we move down to the monthly chart. So, I stop at the monthly chart. I do know of traders that that continue on the weekly chart, but for me personally, I I prefer sticking with the uh yearly, six month, 3 month, and monthly chart and monthly charts to to highlight the key support and resistance levels.

[00:33:51]So, as you can see here, one month resistance at this point here, closed candle. What a lovely bearish engulfing candle that was in March. uh one month opening level here, another one there.

[00:34:04]So, we have quite a lot going on and this is the current candle. Then once I've got all of this, I then simply drill down to the daily time frame and it really highlights where the key support and resistance levels are. Here we have a support area between 1 M support and 3M support. Here we have 1M resistance. But again on my support and resistance webinar you would have found that I watch two I use two techniques to highlight support and resistance. I use the opening levels which I've just shown and I also use what's known as the IQM levels. This is the inverted quasimoto support and resistance. I know it sounds a bit um cartoonish even. I'm I'm lost for words with that really, but it's an incredibly effective way of um finding support and resistance. I won't go into detail with this, but uh again, if you guys are interested, do check out my support and resistance uh um webinar. It's available on the FB markets YouTube channel. So, we have that we have also a resistance level here, an IQ resistance at 4,883 and that one month resistance. I mean, look at that. What a beautiful reaction.

[00:35:16]We've we've essentially prior to this, we've whipsed through this support level, likely leaving unfilled orders because this whipsaw is is a is a clear-cut bear trap for me. A bear trap meaning it traps all of those sell orders behind and then eventually takes them out. And um look, the bear trap is just such a it's such a killer because it not only traps those breakout sellers, traps them in that position, it also um whips all of those long positions that have their stops too tight at this point here. So, it's a it's a completely, you know, it's one of those moves that are very frustrating to deal with and it's better to trade them after the fact. So we have a whips saw likely leaving unfilled orders because the the traders that saw this whips saw have tried to have got in. So you see this candle pull back test the area.

[00:36:06]We've caught some of the orders will be some unfilled orders I believe around this area. Hence our wrote potential unfilled orders around this zone.

[00:36:15]Technically we've reacted from this area of resistance. While we could see a move to the upside, I don't see any technical support stopping uh the daily price of gold. um heading heading towards that area of support between uh 4225 and 4329.

[00:36:36]Now if we get below here guys then the I I don't see anything stopping price from reaching as far south as that 3M support uh sorry the the support area made up of a 3M and a 1M support level between 3865 and 3988 and this is a as I said a 3M and a 1 M support level it's really quite because remember guys we are also breaking down on the weekly time frame so we've got a breakdown of trend on the weekly time frame, we've got room to move lower on the daily time frame going by these technical chart uh these technical um levels here. So, I'm quite bearish on on gold for as as I've wrote there, room to move lower in the short term, at least until we reach this area here. This is all from a technical standpoint at this point, guys. Um so yes, so let's just take a moment to really recap on what we've covered today because there's actually quite a lot. Um we've started with market structure, understanding where or how prices move.

[00:37:41]So we have the higher highs, we have the highs, the lows. We're looking for trends. We're looking for uptrends, downtrends, we're looking for ranging markets. We need to understand that price moves in phases and that the bigger picture always matters. So we need to understand where we're coming from to trade current price.

[00:37:57]Um uh context is everything guys. Uh we also looked at what actually drives price uh drives drives gold prices and the key takeaways are real interest rates, the dollar and of course central bank uh demand. These are the three key drivers for me. Um, look, and really my techn and and and and what I've just wrapped up with here was the technical standing for me. I am bearish gold in the short term. Um, with the dollar rising, real interest rates bottoming out as I showed in this chart here. Real interest rates showing a bottoming pattern.

[00:38:36]And then we have gold showing room to the downside. It's just really everything is lining up for further downside in the price of gold. So the one thing I would really leave you with is um gold is not a simple market. It's global. It's 24 hours and it's driven from everything. It's driven by everything from Fed policy to geopolitics to central bank reserve management.

[00:39:03]Um but that that complexity is also what makes it one of the most rewarding uh markets to understand deeply. The traders who do well in gold are not the ones look I don't trade I rarely I rarely trade gold because I'm more of an FX guy. I I prefer the macros. Um but I do know everything's cor correlated. So if the dollar rallies I do know gold will probably be selling off and things like that. Um, but the ones that do really well in gold trading are not the ones reacting to the headlines.

[00:39:34]They're the ones who understand the structure. Uh, respect the macro environment and wait for the chart to confirm uh what the fundamentals um what the fundamentals are already telling them. So, look guys, when I'm analyzing the charts for gold, I do watch the tip shield very very closely. Um, I also keep an eye on the dollar as I've just said and I always keep that higher time frame picture, that higher time frame structure uh front of mind always.

[00:40:02]So guys, I'm going to open the floor up to questions if you have any. Um, I just want to say thank you all so much for your time. Uh, I genuinely hope you found this useful. Uh, whether you're just starting out in gold or looking to sharpen what you already know. Um, as I said, the floor is open for questions if you have any. Um, I do have a couple of questions that uh from clients who said that they would be watching the the recording but appreciate me answering uh them during the presentation. So, if you have any questions, guys, please do fire them away and I'll get to them in a minute.

[00:40:36]So, I had a couple of questions here.

[00:40:39]How do I know when a trend has actually changed versus just pulling back? Now, if you knew that, you know, you need a crystal ball for that really.

[00:40:48]But one of the most common ways of um trying to understand when a a a trend has changed for me personally I like to keep things nice and simple. So we can just go back to here right this weekly chart at this point here is is you know a par it's not parabolic but it's a clear uptrend. It's this is a textbook uptrend guys. Higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, higher lows, higher high, higher low. Failed to make a higher low. Uh, sorry, higher high.

[00:41:22]Then we formed a lower low. Now we're in the process of making that higher uh lower high at this point here. This for me is the easiest way to uh look at this. You can use all the indicators you like. You can use simple moving averages or EMAs. You can use uh different types of trend analysis. But for me, I try to keep things as simple as possible and use price action because if you look at, so for instance, a simple moving average. Let's plunk the 50. This is a weekly chart. So let's plunk the 50 50We moving average. We know we're not we're still above that 50we moving average here. So technically according to this moving average, we've not seen the moving average. We've not seen price cross below that moving average and we've not seen the moving average start to flatten out and pull lower. So technically according to the 50week moving average we are still in an uptrend and this is this is likely to be a key support level. These these higher time frame 50 and 200 day moving averages are just um can can be some offer some really really um uh really great uh support and resistance dynamic support and resistance. I'm trying to fire on a 200 week moving average. We'll see where we are. I mean I mean look at the 200 week moving average. We're right down the bottom there. So we are still in an uptrend according to the So the the point is there's a there's a number of ways to highlight trend direction but for me right now price action is telling me that we are in the early stages of a downtrend. Now I've seen the 50week moving average though um at this point I would like to see a break below a close below this 50WE moving average to really uh convince me um uh convince me of a downtrend.

[00:43:16]So just breaking news there guys. Fed chair Jerome Pal is remaining on the Fed board which really should prove to be quite a market moving event. Um yeah so that's the the key event uh key news uh news flow right now. Um I also had another uh if I had a pound for every time someone asked me what time frame I should be trading as a beginner irrespective of the markets I'd be a millionaire. So what time frame should I be trading uh should I be trading um gold on as a beginner. So, for me, look, this is so this is such a difficult question to answer because if you have a full-time job, um, and you have obligations, you have kids and things, you you can't be at the screen, you know, for for the best part of the day.

[00:44:07]There's no chance you can day trade there. Yeah, it's it's very difficult for you to day trade and it's it's literally impossible for you to scalp.

[00:44:15]So, you would have to be a swing trader.

[00:44:16]you would have to be a swing trader or a position trader which is more of a medium to longerterm uh time frames. So you would in this case swing trader position trader you'll be looking more at the monthly charts, the weekly charts and the daily charts maybe the 4hour charts for entry but ultimately it would be the um the higher time frame charts. Now, if you have time, if you're retired, if you if you're a student, you could scout. You could have the time to scalp or um day trade, which means you would be looking at the lower time frames, H4, H1 for your higher time frame direction, uh M uh M15, the 15-minut chart, 5m minute chart, and lower for your entries.

[00:45:01]So this um this it all depends on on on on what your situation is. But you do have four trading styles to choose from. You have position trading, you have swing trading, you have um uh day trading, and you have scalping. So this is how I always try to answer that uh question.

[00:45:23]Um we do have a question here from one of the uh attendees here. What is the tips indicator name on Trading View? No, it's uh the it's not an indicator. It's um it's actually the tips yield. So, I will show you this guys. So, it's DF uh I I believe uh one zero. That's the um let me just let me just send that to you directly. Bear with me guy. Bear with me.

[00:45:54]I'll type this if I can. I'll throw this in the chat box guys. Um if I can just bear with me here. Let me throw that. This is the uh symbol for um the US the 10-year Treasury uh tips indicator. And you you said something about the dollar index as well. That again that's not an indicator. That is the actual it's a dollar index. It's it's a value of the dollar against six major international currencies. It's the geometric weighted uh value of the dollar against six M.

[00:46:27]So, it's it's a good it's a good measure of um the dollar's value against all of those currencies, which includes the euro, which includes the Japanese yen, the British pound, and things like that.

[00:46:39]So, it's certainly something to watch for. Um I hope that's answered your question there.

[00:46:48]Um I can see your question as well, Shiva. I'm sorry if I've mispronounced your name. What is the name of the YouTube channel where this video will be uploaded? it is FP markets um uh you can see all the archived webinars but guys if you're interested in a support and resistance webinar this is I would I would recommend looking at that because over the 15 years I've been involved in technical analysis these are the only two support and resistances that I trust um uh really trust and I've gained a lot of experience with these and um as I said these are the only two ways of locating high probability trading opportunities.

[00:47:32]Of course, there are some subtle nuances around the approach towards a level around if these levels are broken, what um how much breathing room do I give price action and things like that, but I do I think I detail that in the webinar.

[00:47:47]So, it's FP markets and um I think the webinar is just titled support and resistance, but it was quite a recent one. It was uh this year. So, do look into that if you're interested. Um, another question we had from someone, I can't remember his name. I do apologize.

[00:48:04]Uh, this was from a client that sent me a message. Um, it was, "Where do I find tips in real time?" I've just answered that in the uh in the um in the chat box there, guys. So, um, another question was, "Does uh gold always move inversely to real rates?" Not always, guys. Not always. As you've seen, as I can show you here, I think I did a uh so let me just remove this.

[00:48:35]I just want to prove something here, guys. The um it doesn't always remove it doesn't always the correlation strong in my opinion.

[00:48:44]The correlation between real rates and the and spot gold is strong over the medium term. Uh let me just show you this. Um I think I did let me just add the IND correlation coefficient here guys and you'll be able to see it.

[00:49:04]Um let me just find the let me just put that in there.

[00:49:13]There it's there. Excellent.

[00:49:16]So, for the correlation coefficients, guys, what I like to do is I like to use a um 60-day rolling average, not a 20-day.

[00:49:26]So, I like to look at it more of a longer term thing, but if you if you can see it here, it's just going to prove a point here really, guys.

[00:49:38]All right. So this is more of the shorter term and you can see the correlation is it's pretty much even right between the this is the US tips here guys. This is a positive correlation negative correlation negative correlation positive negative positive positive. But if you go to the weekly time frame things get a little bit more um you know a bit more you know inversely correlated. Then you go to the monthly time frame there guys and look you can see a huge difference. So over the longer term to answer that question does gold always move inversely to real rate. It does not. Um and this is an important nuance to really understand in the short term other forces can dominate as uh you can have higher dollars you can have higher real central bank buying and things like that. So there's there's always no single driver works in isolation.

[00:50:32]Uh, one other final question I did get from a client was um, if central banks are buying so much gold, why does it still sell off sometimes? Look, central bank buying is strategic, it's slow, uh, largely largely price insensitive as well, guys.

[00:50:56]It doesn't show up in daily order flow.

[00:50:59]Um, what moves price on a day-to-day basis as as in gold is speculative positioning, ETF flows, and macro sentiment. Think of I think I've already said this, but think of the central bank demand as more of a floor, not the ceiling. Um, it supports the market structurally, but it won't stop a short-term selloff, guys. It really won't. uh driven short-term self-driven by rising real uh rates or or a strong dollar.

[00:51:32]Um one other question I did get, how do I how do I track central bank buying now if you don't have access to uh refinitive um the world gold council um is is a good one. I think you still have to um subscribe to this though. Um but they do offer free articles but um and I think they publish monthly data on reported changes in central bank holdings. Uh the IMF also posts uh publishes reserve data though it tends to lag slightly. So this is where you can track um you can track uh um the central bank buying.

[00:52:14]All right guys, so that's all the questions. Um is there any other questions? Just want to check.

[00:52:22]All right. So, Shifa, I take it you're okay with the answer. FP Markets, if you want to look up the YouTube channel there, guys. Um, that's it. So, that's really all I thank you so much for your time today. As I said, guys, I hope you found this uh useful. Um, and um, look, the webinar will be available on YouTube shortly. Uh, we the team will upload this first thing tomorrow morning. So, please do feel free to share it with anyone you think would benefit who's just starting out in gold trading or or is um or may benefit from uh other parts of the webinar even if they've been trading for a while. Um on that note, if there's no other question Oh, I see one more question I think. Nope, I think I've caught them all.

[00:53:12]All right, so on that note, guys, if there's no other questions, thank you all so much for joining. Um, I do appreciate all of your time and um, it was a great turnout today. Um, so yes, I'll see you next month. We have two webinars planned. Uh, the titles are just being written up. Uh, we will let you know through social media, but uh, they they will be good ones. Um, thank you very much for your time and um, have a great evening, afternoon or morning wherever you're um, based. Thanks so much guys. See you later.