وول مارت.. انعكاس الانقسام الاستهلاكي في أميركا - الأسواق الأميركية

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:02]The decline in Walmart's stock wasn't just a stumble for the retail giant; it served as a warning bell reflecting the depth of the crisis facing the American consumer. The latest financial report revealed a real dilemma: while high-income earners continue to spend confidently, those with limited incomes are suffering from soaring fuel costs resulting from the Iran war. Average car fill-ups have fallen below 10 gallons for the first time in two years. Despite the company's success in capturing market share and growing sales by more than 4%, the damage caused by absorbing energy costs to maintain competitive pricing is shrinking profit margins. This puts the American economic barometer to a severe test in the second half of the year. This, if it doesn't mean the repercussions or effects of rising energy prices, we will discuss the topic further. Perhaps we should also consider this in conjunction with the American consumer confidence data, which is also declining to its lowest historical levels.

[00:01:16]Welcome, Lauren Landfield, Portfolio Manager at Panthera Advisors.

[00:01:23]Welcome, Lauren. So, when we ask ourselves now... Regarding the state of the American consumer, we are not only questioning the short-term impact of rising energy prices on consumers, but also the overall situation. Today, consumer confidence, or consumer sentiment, is at an all-time low of 44 points, or 44.8.

[00:01:52]This raises questions about the health of the American consumer and what this means for their future spending.

[00:02:04]Greetings, Muhammad.

[00:02:07]Indeed, the consumer confidence figures have been released, but what we are currently witnessing in terms of consumer demand is related to the plans implemented at the beginning of the year, which included tax cuts and tax refunds.

[00:02:27]This was intended to boost demand. Spending has held up relatively well thanks to these policies and tax refunds. However, at the same time, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is at 3%, interest rates are high, and inflation is also high because people are filling their tanks at higher gasoline prices. Therefore, some consumer-related companies have spoken about this. Despite the high inflation, there have been positive aspects; spending has been largely positive, and the flows that They received it thanks to the tax response.

[00:03:19]Okay, in your opinion, won't this have long-term effects on consumer spending behavior and, consequently, on the situation of companies, specifically the retail sector?

[00:03:41]Well, yes, Walmart, for example, had around 4% sales growth.

[00:03:48]So, people are barely spending because of inflation. If interest rates remain high for a while, the effects of inflation on consumer spending will reach them. So far, we haven't seen a significant change in spending. And if you 're asking me if it will become a problem in the future, if consumption will decline, how could it not? There are defaults on payments by consumers. Also, commodity stocks, consumer goods, aren't performing great, and people are even starting to change their positions in them. Therefore, all of this indicates that things will get worse if the consumer doesn't get an improvement. The tax refund is the only thing that has kept spending good so far, and the big beautiful law—the big beautiful law—needs to see costs decrease for this spending to continue. Interest rates need to decrease, there need to be stable jobs, and we need to reduce inflation, otherwise things will get worse. It's difficult for me to sit here and tell you that the strength we've seen This situation will continue temporarily unless there is an economic boost, reduced costs, and an improved labor market. The labor market is n't bad; it's largely stable, though opinions differ on its resilience and stability. Of course, there are some pressures, such as artificial intelligence, which has begun replacing jobs. Is there time to add to this? There's also the government's fiscal perspective, the fiscal standpoint, which not only causes inflation but also real REITs, whose real returns over ten years are above 4.58, specifically. These are new high levels.

[00:05:59]Much of this is due to rising inflation, and real REIT returns over ten years are reaching new record highs. So, regarding government spending, we're talking about debt markets to finance all of this, whether it's artificial intelligence or government expenditures. These are the things that will lead us to say that this might change if the situation with Iran improves, things calm down, and oil prices decline. But what we're currently witnessing is high interest rates on real estate. It's difficult for us to say for certain that the consumer won't be affected. They will certainly be affected when we talk about the consumer. We must... We differentiate between the two types of consumers, according to the key- chip economy, or this K-shaped economy, and the gap between high-income earners who don't face problems increasing their spending, and the broad base of consumers, representing the middle and lower classes, who are under significant pressure. Can we talk about a healthy economy today, about a stock market capable of growth, without a broad base of consumers able to increase their spending?

[00:07:26]I think we are clearly witnessing the key-chip economy you're talking about.

[00:07:32]Ralph Lauren, for example, has seen profits exceeding 20%, reaching new record levels. Meanwhile, consumers with low incomes are the ones who go to Walmart, and Walmart's performance isn't great, not even Target's.

[00:07:45]This is evidence that the key-chip economy is very clear, even in the stock market. Therefore, the difficulty here is answering your question: Is it possible for the stock market to improve when the economy is K-shaped and low-income earners aren't spending much? It's difficult to answer because most of the gains are driven by the stock market, fueled by technology stocks. So the question is: Is it possible for the stock market to improve when the economy is K-shaped and low-income earners aren't spending much? It's difficult to answer because most of the gains are driven by the stock market, fueled by technology stocks.

[00:08:13]Therefore, the question is: Is it possible for the stock market to improve when the economy is K-shaped and low-income earners aren't spending much? The correct question is whether the stock market will continue to rise or not.

[00:08:19]This is in the hands of the market leaders. Who are the leaders? It is not consumer stocks.

[00:08:30]So the discussion is completely different regarding whether the market will rise or not, because it does not depend at all on consumer goods or consumer stocks. The consumer stocks do not drag the market down, even though their performance is not good.

[00:08:43]Well, is this sustainable? As I mentioned, ultimately, if the consumer isn't doing well due to high returns, high interest rates, and a lack of purchasing power, it's difficult for us to expect this to continue for a long period or indefinitely.

[00:09:02]Therefore, we must adopt a realistic and logical long-term perspective.

[00:09:13]If the foundation isn't strong, as you say, in the short term, there's spending on building AI infrastructure, which keeps the market rising and improving. However, as I mentioned, real interest rates are increasing because all this spending comes from government spending shortfalls or funding for investment in AI. This raises interest rates even further, as if we're harming the consumer with everything we do. At the same time, we're likely putting pressure on job growth because, as you've seen, AI is replacing them.

[00:10:05]In my conservative view, this won't last very long or indefinitely unless we increase the demand for labor.

[00:10:14]Currently, we rely on an economy that's limited in certain areas, and spending on AI is the biggest factor. But this trend won't continue for long, especially with rising commodity prices, increased costs for consumers, and high interest rates. The lack of significant job market growth is a problem because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the US GDP, so perhaps we are heading towards a new type of economy. Thank you for this analysis, Lauren Landfield, Portfolio Manager at Panthera Advisors. Thanks, Yeah.