Here's Why The 2026 Bitcoin Bull Run Has Started (I'm Risking it All)

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Bitcoin has broken 80,000. And we just got some news that is impossible to ignore. The social sentiment is returning. The economy is looking better and better, and we might finally see an end to the existing war between the US and Iran. In this video, I'm going to show you exactly what happened, what you can expect, and what I'm going to do moving forward. So, before we get too far into this video, let's cover Bitcoin right now, as per usual. So, Bitcoin is looking phenomenal. Right now it's trading above 82,000. Okay, it was indeed a fake out as I mentioned last week and as I of course also mentioned within my free Telegram group well in advance. You can find a link for this in the description down below. But what's really great is the fact that we of course broke the multimonth range here and we used the previous resistance level as support and it held up beautifully. Volume is starting to come back as I wanted to see as we broke out of the range. So that's great. and we've just gotten across between the 50 and 100 period moving average. Next in line is the 200 period moving average, which again, Bitcoin is closing in on here.

[00:01:04]And as I mentioned within the Telegram, my next target for Bitcoin was in fact going to be between 83,000 and 85,000, which we in fact are approaching right now. So the next level of crucial resistance for Bitcoin is going to be the level here between 83 and 85,000. If we break through this, well, then again, it is looking absolutely phenomenal. And it's not just the daily time frame.

[00:01:26]Right now, we're looking at the weekly one. And if we go back in time, we can see a clear pattern. When Bitcoin breaks out of the RSI trend line and then simultaneously breaks out of an, you know, an actual trend line within price action. Well, then again, what comes next is a massive expansion. We have literally seen it throughout history.

[00:01:43]And the exact same pattern has just happened on the weekly time frame. And again, my Bitcoin position here is looking great at $166,000 in profit. Again, you can go back in my videos and you can find when this very position was in fact negative $80,000.

[00:01:59]So, it's not as if I'm just putting it on here to try and look fancy. I have literally shown you the exact same position across this entire YouTube channel. Again, I plan on holding this until we at least make new all-time highs, but again, that of course depends on the price action entirely. Now, what's really great is the fact that Iran says the US has responded to a delayed peace proposal. So, Iran sent a 14-point proposal to the US about ending this war entirely. They proposed a 30-day plan to end this war and conflict as a whole. Now, the US responded and Trump said that he likely won't accept it because, in his words, Iran hasn't paid a big enough price yet. But what matters is two weeks ago, right, talks was completely off the table. It has collapsed entirely. But right now both sides are exchanging proposals through a mediator. So again that is an active negotiation which is you know a whole lot better compared to two weeks ago and also part of the reason why Bitcoin is now starting to move higher and higher.

[00:02:57]In fact when we got these headlines well then crude oil jumped back down below $100. Right now we're trading at $102.

[00:03:04]But it goes to show that negotiations are in fact favored by the market. I also showed this chart in a previous video. Right now, crude oil is at a historical resistance level. So, in 2011, the Arab Spring, right, oil was trading at $125 to $130 and then it crashed entirely. Same thing with, you know, Russia Ukraine in 2022 and hopefully the exact same thing. Now, again, this is a supply disruption. So, oil is probably not going to come back down unless the straight of her moose actually opens since that's the entire reason why it has skyrocketed. But again, Bitcoin still showing major strength here, you know, despite oil trading above $100. But here's something that's crazy. You see, Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a $629 million inflow that marked the largest single day inflow since midappril. So again, it's not just me and retail who believes in Bitcoin and believes that, you know, the bottom might already be in. It is also the people that can actually control the market, right? The smart money, the whales. And we got major Clarity Act news this week. And the chance of this being signed into law in 2026 has now jumped up to 66%.

[00:04:13]It's probably just going to continue to go higher from this point forward. And again, you can see this article here from Fortune. Bitcoin breaks $80,000 as long awaited Clarity Act approaches finish line. Now, that might be a little bit of a stretch. The Clarity Act has basically been stuck since January over one disagreement, and that disagreement was stable coin yield. But last week, Tom Tillis and Angela also Brooks hammered out a compromise that would allow crypto firms to offer stable coin yield. That is provided that the rewards are not structured as bank deposits. One Senate vote and this entire thing goes straight to Trump's desk. And we all know that Trump is, you know, probably going to sign it. So if that happens, well then we've locked in the Clarity Act. And we can also see that as Bitcoin climbs higher and higher as well as the stock market, the fear is easing. So, what we're looking at here is the volatility S&P 500 index, also known as the VIX. Now, this is a great fear gauge. So, what we typically say is when this is above 30, well, then we're trading within a risk off environment.

[00:05:15]However, when it's trading below 20, well, then it's risk on, right? Risk is back on the table and investors are simply willing to take on more risk. So, we peaked here in 2026, you know, above 30. So riskoff sentiment at 35 and we are now back below 20 at just 16. So again, this is great because that allows for all that capital to finally rotate into Bitcoin as the risk appetite grows and grows and grows. But this is crazy.

[00:05:43]What we're looking at here is the Bitcoin long-term holder supply. And this confirms my idea that risk is back on the table. Have a look at what happened here recently. Right? So we absolutely exploded. the long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin like there is no tomorrow. Rarely do we see accumulation at this pace. I mean have a look at this. So again, this goes to show that even the long-term holders, you know, believe in Bitcoin and are actively buying as much as they possibly can. And as I mentioned in the last video, and it's just so crucial, I have to mention it again. The copper to gold ratio has also bottomed. And it did so at the exact same trend line as previously. So when it bottomed in 2020 and in 2016, it was at the exact same trend line as we're seeing right now.

[00:06:27]And again, every single time that this has bottomed in while the ISMP PMI was expanding. Well, then that led to a massive Bitcoin bull run in 2017, 2020, and probably right now after the ISM PMI is, you know, also expanding. The reason why this is significant is because when the common to gold ratio bottoms, it signals a shift from risk off to a riskon macro environment. So again, fully backing up the idea that when the VIX is trading below 20, we are in fact within a riskon environment. And the last thing I want to show you to confirm that, you know, the the sentiment is in fact shifting is this chart right here.

[00:07:04]So, the Russell 2000, which is the small cap index in the US, is breaking out, has made new all-time highs and is pretty much up 21% since the bottom in March. The S&P 500 is looking very similar, right? It bottomed in here and is up 15.3%.

[00:07:20]But if we, you know, have a look at metals, which is the safe haven assets and assets people pivot towards during risk off sentiment, we can see the opposite, right? Gold is down 26%, right? Silver is down 50%. And so this indicates that capital is rotating from the safe haven such as gold and silver and into assets like the Russell 2000 and or Bitcoin and even the economy backed this up despite the conflict that we're seeing. Okay, so the unemployment rate is actually starting to go down here. The ISMPI which is also the business cycle, you know, has finally expanded for the first time since 2022.

[00:07:56]Now, when this expands, right, well, then it tends to align with a massive Bitcoin bull run and especially if the Fed balance sheet is simultaneously expanding. So, in 2020, right, they expanded the balance sheet significantly. And of course, that led to a massive Bitcoin bull run. And the good news is late last year, they finally stopped tightening the balance sheet, right? Making it go down. And we've actually seen a, you know, a complete flip in sentiment here where the balance sheet is now actively increasing. So the whole stage is set, right? The economy is screaming that Bitcoin is about to take off entirely.

[00:08:31]But this is, if you have watched the channel, you know this, one of my favorite things to look at, and that is the Treasury general account balance. So this is essentially the Fed parking lot, right? And when they drain this like they did here in 20120, well then capital is, you know, flowing out of the TGA and into financial markets. And that's why this tend to align with a massive Bitcoin bull run. So the lower this is, the more money we have in the financial market. Right here in 2017, we also saw a drainage where the TGA went down and of course that meant a massive Bitcoin bull run. Now here's the thing, right? The TGA is sitting right around $1 trillion and it is doing so at a historical drainage level. So they typically drain the Treasury general account balance to finance the deficit, but mostly when government spending exceeds tax revenue. And here's the good news. The cumulative deficit for fiscal year 2026 is sitting at $1.2 trillion.

[00:09:28]And of course, a deficit of $1.2 trillion means that they spent $1.2 trillion that they simply didn't have.

[00:09:35]And that money, right, it came straight from the Treasury general account balance. And that is exactly why they have to drain it. Lastly, let's talk about altcoins because I know a lot of people are confused, right? Are we ever going to see an altcoin season again? So looking at Ethereum here, it's actually looking, you know, surprisingly good. So we finally broken through this multi- multimonth trend line and that happened after a massive accumulation phase, right? And what you typically say within markets is the longer the accumulation, the larger the expansion. Now, we also managed to close above both the 50 and 100 period moving average with a cross here. So again, I pretty much see this as a, you know, a free run for for Ethereum until we reach about 2,800 where we see the next level of resistance as well as the 200 period moving average. All in all though, I do think Ethereum looks great and that is a great sign for all coins as a whole.

[00:10:29]Now, this is something that's overlooked a lot by traders, okay? And that's the stable coin dominance. So, we actually saw a descending triangle here. You can see the actual pattern here to the left and we broke out of it to the downside.

[00:10:41]Right now, the lower the stable coin dominance, the higher the Bitcoin. So again, this breaking out to the downside is a phenomenal sign, right? We're also below both the, you know, 50 and 100 period moving average. And we're about to get across here. So I think it's pretty much a freef fall for the dominance until at least the, you know, 50% of the range. And if that's the case, well then again, Bitcoin is far from done rallying. So ladies and gentlemen, that was today's video. I really hope you enjoyed. As always, I appreciate every single one of you. And for that reason, I would love to see every single one of you within my free Telegram group. Again, you literally click a link and then you're in. There's no payw wall there. There is no upsell.

[00:11:19]There's no nothing. So, make sure to check out the link down below, and I hope to see every single one of you within my next