Major Bitcoin Indicator Flashes Bottom Signal? What You Must Know!

Ajouté : 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]A major Bitcoin indicator is flashing a potential bottom signal.

[00:00:05]What you must know.

[00:00:08]You can tell that it's Friday and we've exhausted all the stories when we're talking about some rare indicator that I've never looked at until today as the topic of our show, but that doesn't matter because I'm on the moon. We're going to talk about that and everything else happening in the crypto market right now. Let's go.

[00:00:32]>> [music] >> Good morning everybody and welcome to the moon.

[00:00:42]I have been living here since the Artemis mission. It was a secret mission. They dropped me here. Uh and they wanted me to be here when Bitcoin arrived.

[00:00:53]Because we all know looking at the charts that Bitcoin is going to the moon. We're at $76,217.50 We're going to do this for you. That's better. That's cooler. And taking a look at the Bitcoin chart this and I mean it's obvious what we need to do right here, right? We got this line right here around $76,013 give or take. We'll call it 76,000.

[00:01:16]This whole area from 74 to 76 obviously has been the key resistance at the moment. Uh but this is the March high and we got to break above it, hold, and then we can probably go up a few thousand more dollars before we nuke somebody and the world ends.

[00:01:32]That said, I really am starting to feel like there's a fighting chance and if I'm a counter indicator that means we're probably at the range highs and going to go down further and forever, but not the only person who's starting to feel a little bit bullish tingle.

[00:01:46]As we said there in the title and if it's written on CoinDesk and it's from Glassnode, it it has to be true.

[00:01:53]Bitcoin reset maybe complete as on-chain data points to cycle low. The Rodel ratio.

[00:02:02]Uh our Hodl ratio.

[00:02:04]Ruh Rodel. Ha Rodel? Rodel. I think I actually had a bad case of Rodel in college, but I went to student health, they gave me a shot, cleared it right up.

[00:02:14]Uh sounds like a alt 90s band that had one hit and then the lead singer killed himself.

[00:02:22]Oh man, you remember that Rodel song?

[00:02:24]It's really good. I I don't know what Rodel means, Rodel ratio, but it's apparently important. Uh basically this is when longer-term holders are dramatically outweighing shorter-term holders after 50% correction and it generally means that the bottom is in.

[00:02:39]That said, currently at about 4.5.

[00:02:43]Uh it's gotten as high as seven or even higher than that in the past and that means that depending on how you interpret this, if it goes to seven, price probably goes a lot lower.

[00:02:55]So, kind of a misleading headline, but that said, it's the third highest ever and in general, 4.5 in this area and higher, these have been when market bottoms hit. So, that means that the bottom must be in at 60,000 in my humble opinion. That said, I have believed, long believed I should say, that the market bottom is in.

[00:03:16]Uh that 60,000 move felt like capitulation. We've seen a lot of evidence actually that that could be the case. I honestly at this point since we've been rehearsing so much for my other show and doing this show, I don't really remember what we've talked about or what we haven't or where I said it.

[00:03:32]But I'm going to go ahead and bring this up anyways. Miners have not been selling Bitcoin since February.

[00:03:37]That's relatively provable. At the same time, we also have accumulated 270,000 Bitcoin. That's in 30 days. Apparently they the long-term wallets that were selling that entire way down have accumulated 270,000 Bitcoin.

[00:03:51]And exchange reserves are now down to 2.679 million Bitcoin, which is the low from 2013 roughly.

[00:04:00]So, the amount accumulated I believe is the most since 2019 in a month period. Exchange reserves at the lowest since 2013. Supply is getting locked from both sides while demand is strengthening. You know what comes next.

[00:04:13]Oh, if only I did.

[00:04:15]Do you know what comes next? If anybody does, please tell me. Is it snowing on the moon?

[00:04:23]Feels like it's snowing.

[00:04:25]Um I I know what should come next, but the thing is we often see these exact kind of indicators often and then all of a sudden it's like Bitcoin whale sends a million Bitcoin to exchange and then all of a sudden you're not anywhere near the lows, the supply is really really high, or one of these whales who accumulated 270,000, you know, sends half of those and all these metrics are for naught. But I would say that these are generally bullish indicators at the moment. But they can change very fast. I mean, I think that that's really the signal there when think you about it.

[00:05:01]Uh we have JP Morgan back on back on the docket. We know that they're the most important people in the history of crypto. JP Morgan says Clarity Act nearing finish line as talks advance.

[00:05:14]I don't believe you.

[00:05:16]I think that's a lie and I'm pretty sick of the crypto community having a collective JP Morgasm every single time Jamie Diamond Hands says something positive about the industry because that dude sucks. We hate him still and we're not letting him off the hook. He's the evil emperor. I don't know who Darth Vader is, but that guy is the evil emperor.

[00:05:35]Vader throws him coming out of his fingers. Like that's what we want.

[00:05:41]Uh but yeah, JP Morgasm. Uh because the Clarity Act be nearing the finish line.

[00:05:46]This is one of their analysts. I can't can't be an analyst without the anal.

[00:05:52]Uh Like you guys are killing me over there.

[00:05:59]>> [laughter] >> I love I get it laughs in person now. It makes my life so much better.

[00:06:04]Uh yeah, but uh one of their analysts saying on Wednesday that he thinks it's nearing the finish line. 12 to 13 big sticking points were there before, now we're down to two or three. Obviously it starts with stablecoin yield, but uh big ball beautiful badass Brian Armstrong has alluded to the fact that they might have come to an agreement here.

[00:06:21]Uh the banks also saying they may be agreeing. So, stablecoin yield may be on the table. Couple more sticking points with DeFi and market structure and what will be a commodity, what will be a security, who is going to regulate, CFTC or the SEC.

[00:06:34]Still though, man. Come on, bro.

[00:06:37]World Liberty Financial is out here like printing money and taking massive loans against it from uh retail and we don't think that the ethics clause might still be a sticking point for the Clarity Act? I will say everybody close to this who I talk to says it's really really close. So, maybe I'm misinterpreting it. I am more than happy to be wrong on this. Uh but right now I really am struggling to understand how the Democrats are like, yeah, Trump can participate in the crypto market, it's fine and Trump, if they say that he can't, signing something and being like, yeah, my golden goose here, my cash cow that I've been milking since the minute I went to the Bitcoin conference, I'm just going to let that go cuz cuz why not?

[00:07:19]You know? I don't really see it. That said, I mean, you know, you got JP Morgan here saying Clarity's near the finish line. We had Morgan Stanley last week launching a Bitcoin spot ETF.

[00:07:30]The brothers Morgan.

[00:07:32]I'm going to say this again.

[00:07:34]JP Morgan Stanley.

[00:07:36]You heard it here first. There's no reason that we need two companies with the name Morgan in them.

[00:07:43]It's dumb.

[00:07:44]But meanwhile, Charles Schwab to launch direct Bitcoin and Ether trading to compete with Robinhood. I don't think they specifically said they're going to compete with Robinhood. There's a few things that I've learned of late that are really important. One, Charles Schwab is still alive.

[00:07:57]I thought that Charles Schwab was like Mount Rushmore levels of dead.

[00:08:02]Like 1400s, sailed with Columbus. I don't know, maybe 1700s wrote the Constitution. Charles Schwab is still alive. He was born in the 1930s, still actively participating. Uh but Chuck Schwab here to launch direct Bitcoin and Ether trading. So, this to me is actually really really important. They they'd made the announcement long ago that this was potentially going to happen. So, we knew that.

[00:08:27]But they're going to be rolling this out soon allowing clients to buy Bitcoin and Ether and this is going to happen in the coming weeks. So, as this says, the move places the brokerage in direct competition with Robinhood and Coinbase, both of which tend to serve younger clients and offer commission-free trading and on stocks, but still carry a fee on crypto. Yeah, actually there's a spread on some of it. Uh they're not going to compete with Robinhood and Coinbase by just offering Bitcoin and Ethereum. It's not like we're talking about like Pepe and CumRocket.

[00:08:56]Right? But Schwab is the latest example of increasing crypto acceptance by traditional finance firms who previously were waiting on the sidelines to launch crypto offerings. So, now we have news here. Obviously we saw JP Morgan. We talked about Goldman launching an income Bitcoin ETF. That's Goldman Sachs. So, we have Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Chucky from Child's Play over here, Chuck Schwab.

[00:09:19]Uh ready to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading. So, I think that uh what we're seeing actually more is two worlds converging, right? So, I don't think that they by launching Bitcoin and Ethereum are able to instantaneously compete with Robinhood and Coinbase. In fact, I would argue that Robinhood already controls both audiences to some degree. They have a very crypto-native audience that's participated there and the stock degenerate who YOLO'd GameStop uh through that last cycle.

[00:09:47]Coinbase has over 100 million customers.

[00:09:49]Doesn't mean they're all actively trading, but by far the largest of all these. I think Charles Schwab maybe 30 million customers. Uh I looked it up earlier and I have to say that my brain has forgotten. I would like to have that accurate for you guys.

[00:10:02]I'll look it up real quick. I know I had it. But, uh, oh well, forget it. I think it was about 30 million.

[00:10:09]And so, Coinbase moving into stocks probably going to actually be a more popular offering than Charles Schwab moving into crypto. But, either way, these guys are coming along kicking and screaming. They don't have a choice anymore. I mean, the biggest institutions in the world, one by one by one, all coming in and being forced to participate in our industry whether they like it or not. So, if Charles Schwab goes further down the rabbit hole and actually starts offering, you know, Salon, XRP, and further down the risk curve, I will say that they're going to compete. But, clearly there's enough demand from their clients they want to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading. This is not trading ETFs, which you can already do there. So, it is important. This will be spot Bitcoin and Ethereum that you will able to be able to buy and sell.

[00:10:54]I'm curious. I haven't looked into it yet whether you'll be able to move those coins into self-custody or anything like that.

[00:11:00]But, uh, yeah. We're going to see, either way, for better or for worse, every single institution on the planet is seemingly here. In other news, United States government moves 606,000 uh, dollars in Bitcoin linked to the 2016 Bitfinex hack to Coinbase. That's not many Bitcoin.

[00:11:23]Honestly, was it eight? Bitfinex plans to use the returned coins to redeem all recovery right tokens and devote at least six 80% of remaining net proceeds to repurchasing and burning its UNUSSED Leo token. This is an interesting story because we've long reported on the fact that Bitfinex had a huge hack.

[00:11:44]Those coins were eventually recovered by the United States government and the criminals were brought to justice.

[00:11:52]Right? So, we had the, uh, dude with the really long Russian name, Ilya Lichtenstein. Maybe it's not so Russian.

[00:11:58]Right? And then his, uh, girlfriend or wife or significant other, the rapper Razzlekhan.

[00:12:05]I remember when they were caught that we just played her rap videos over and over and over in disbelief that we were living in a real timeline and that it was not a simulation. But, uh, Razzlekhan, these are the coins that they had hacked that the United States government's holding. But, what I find interesting here when reading about this, yeah, they only sent eight Bitcoin.

[00:12:25]Those by law now are Bitfinex's coins, but Bitfinex still hasn't gotten these coins back. And when we do our theoretical accounting of United States government's holdings of Bitcoin, which have to be theoretical because they've never given us an accounting of how many Bitcoin the United States government holds even though they promised to.

[00:12:43]Uh, which is so shady.

[00:12:45]Right? That was the big David Sachs, Donald Trump promise over a year ago.

[00:12:49]We're going to get an accounting. Well, most of that strategic Bitcoin reserve when they pledged to not sell any more coins and to hold the rest of them, Bitfinex's.

[00:12:58]So, what you have right now, I've given this analogy many times, but I don't want to take for granted that all of you have watched and memorized every one of my shows.

[00:13:05]We have a situation right now where effectively Bitfinex was hacked.

[00:13:09]The United States government recovered the coins. And those coins have yet to be returned. So, let's put that in more layman's terms. Let's say that your house is robbed.

[00:13:22]Robbers take your wife's engagement ring.

[00:13:25]The robbers are brought to justice.

[00:13:29]The police recover the ring.

[00:13:31]And then the police say this is our strategic ring reserve.

[00:13:34]And it's ours.

[00:13:36]That's basically so far what has happened and there's been no indication yet, beyond this eight Bitcoin move, that there's any intention by the United States government to return these coins.

[00:13:48]Now, meanwhile, back at the ranch, uh, I'm sure you guys have all been paying attention because nobody can stop talking about the quantum threat to Bitcoin.

[00:13:59]It's exhausting.

[00:14:01]Most of you couldn't even spell quantum a month ago.

[00:14:05]How do you spell quantum?

[00:14:06]I don't know. How do we spell quantum?

[00:14:09]I think it's with a Q. I'm pretty sure.

[00:14:11]I I got some new, oh, Bitcoin just spiked to 76,500.

[00:14:15]That is important.

[00:14:19]Pumping. That straight's are open?

[00:14:21]They open the open open straight's.

[00:14:24]Oil down, open straight's, Bitcoin up.

[00:14:27]Either way though, not to be distracted, Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people in the world, but a proposed update could lock his Bitcoin away forever. Nothing says decentralization and Cypherpunk like locking up millions of old coins because you don't know who owns them. This is, uh, you know, my friend Jameson Lopp is actually one of the people who, uh, proposed this. They're basically saying that to quantum proof the chain and to eliminate all of the fears of hackers getting old tokens that have not moved quantum proof wallets, they could effectively freeze or block those wallets from ever being able to transact.

[00:15:06]I don't know, man.

[00:15:08]I don't know how I feel about that.

[00:15:10]Uh, it seems like, yeah, on the one hand, like we don't want to get hacked.

[00:15:17]On the other hand, uh, that isn't that like very counter to the entire ethos of Bitcoin? Now, Adam Back, I think pushed back and said maybe we could do something where it's ready and if we see a threat or see those coins move, then we do it and there's things in place and all that. But, it does once again show the clear divide in the Bitcoin community, specifically at Bitcoin Core and the and and the developers and what they would or would not be willing to do, what changes they would or would not be willing to make, kind of hearkens back to the blocks block size wars.

[00:15:51]I personally think even if those coins eventually become unlocked by quantum that they would be sold and the market would absorb it. I also don't think that anybody would be stupid enough to hack a million of Satoshi's coins and dump them on the open market all at once. In fact, if they had any kind of brain, they would probably create an advanced hedging strategy with, uh, shorts in the market already in advance so they could capitalize on the shorts. They would make a whole lot of money by pushing price down slowly and they would manipulate price in other ways to the upside and to the downside. So, the whole like they get unlocked market sold Bitcoin dies seems like a very, very unlikely narrative to me, honestly. But, uh, yeah, I guess anything could happen.

[00:16:34]I'm not particularly worried about that and I do not love the idea of this proposal because once again, once it's in there, everything becomes a slippery slope. And honestly, man, why are we even talking about the quantum threat when apparently the AI threat, uh, arrived like last month?

[00:16:53]Anthropic Mythos AI tool Mythos.

[00:17:00]Is that Greek? Should we say it in the Greek way? Me Mythos.

[00:17:04]Mythos AI tool me, too.

[00:17:08]Could spark systemic financial market disruption disruption, a trade group warns. I'm so bad at reading words.

[00:17:16]Um, so if you guys haven't been following this story and I've kind of kept it in my, uh, deliberately ignored but have superficially been reading about it. Basically, Anthropic has this model. And let's be honest, every time Anthropic has a new model, their best marketing tool is apparently to tell you how it's going to end the world.

[00:17:33]They've been doing this since the very beginning. It's kind of a thing. It's great PR, great publicity. But, apparently this can hack literally everything all the time and they've put it behind a wall. The government's clawing to get it. And it basically finds vulnerabilities nobody else finds, but then it actually can daisy-chain multiple vulnerabilities to make them actually relevant.

[00:17:53]The SEC had some news, I think, yesterday or the day before that one of their organizations said, "Listen, we have these systems that have personal information and right now we're so hackable that we're going to actually stop collecting this information and start purging all of the personal information we've been gathering all these years that we use for cases in market manipulation and all these things." So, this is abso- absolutely a real threat.

[00:18:16]Uh, and it's absolutely wild. So, like, yeah, I know they're not going to hack the blockchain, but it seems like this could very easily start hacking wallets or lesser blockchains, ones that are not called, uh, Bitcoin.

[00:18:30]Seems like this is a much bigger concern today than quantum is if Google's most optimistic, you know, version was 2029.

[00:18:41]Uh, but I think most people still saying 10, 20 years down the road. So, I don't know, man.

[00:18:47]I don't know. Feels like we need to start worrying about, uh, AI. This thing apparently like got out of its sandbox and emailed the developer or something.

[00:18:54]It was like, "Hey, bro, haven't heard from you in a while.

[00:18:57]Still going to lunch?

[00:19:00]Where are you? With your wife? She hot?"

[00:19:04]It's probably what he said. That's what I would have said.

[00:19:07]Um, and one last story here, which just cuz.

[00:19:10]Institutions are loading up on call options at the fastest pace ever recorded.

[00:19:15]Institutions are massively, massively monster bullish right now.

[00:19:20]That usually goes well.

[00:19:22]Uh, this is like, uh, when you see, you know, like, "Everybody's long."

[00:19:27]Uh, usually a sign that you should show some caution and maybe, uh, be careful on the other side of that trade. Man, I don't know. All I know is that all of this, okay, so I'm on the moon, as you know, looking back at Earth, as I said, top secret mission to for me to bring Bitcoin to the moon in in Artemis.

[00:19:46]But, every single time I look at what's happening in geopolitics, I think about the war, you know, and the corollaries to past actions that we've seen by the United States government and wars that were obviously about oil and the misdirection and you know, the Dave Dave Weizberger thing where one hand's doing this thing. I don't know.

[00:20:07]What?

[00:20:09]Whatever it is Dave Weizberger does, we know that the government's probably just lying to us generally, right? And so I think of the great Zen poet Dave Chappelle.

[00:20:19]Because Dave Chappelle did this skit back then when Iraq was kind of the main thing and it was called Black Bush, right? I wish he would do Black Trump, to be honest. Like you guys remember when he's like he's saying all the reasons that uh that he's going to go to war and then he's like, "Oil. Somebody say oil? What you cooking? Oil." And then he like throws the mic and he runs out cuz it's obviously about oil. I also liked when he said that uh what was it? Stain Conia was one of the uh nations that was going to come help.

[00:20:48]They were going to drop bombs over Baghdad. That was funny.

[00:20:51]Uh but the the best one is this. I actually just had them download the clip as we're yapping along here. I mean this is this is so good. It's so in line with everything happening right now. Let's watch it. You like you guys keep trying to distract people, right?

[00:21:05]That didn't work. I stink at this.

[00:21:07]Now you have to remove one screen for the other one to work on StreamYard. So dumb. Are you ready? Here it is. Let me tell tell me if this seems >> you guys keep trying to distract people with Iraq. What I'm focusing on other things, namely the moon. Yes, I said it, the moon.

[00:21:24]Can't be distracted. What's going on with the war? What's wrong with the economy? STOP WORRYING ABOUT THAT. I GOT THAT under control. Focus on space, The United States of space cuz I ain't stopping at the moon.

[00:21:37]I'm saying. Write this down. M A R S Mars, That's where we are going. MARS. RED ROCKS.

[00:21:48]I mean Is that even comedy or is it just actually what's happening? Remember the yellow cake Most Def? Don't drop that God, man.

[00:21:58]Dave Chappelle was way ahead of his time.

[00:22:01]Couldn't get away with any of that stuff anymore.

[00:22:03]Uh even though I guess the pendulum is swinging less wokage.

[00:22:07]All right, guys. That's actually all I got for you today.

[00:22:12]Uh we'll see on Monday if Bitcoin's back above uh still holding above 76,000. I think we'll have a lot to talk about if that is the case. More importantly, uh if you like my ranting lunacy and unpreparedness, I'll be doing it every single day on Yahoo Finance at noon with my new show, The Daily Wolf. You'll be able to find that at yahoofinance.com and it is launching on Monday, 4/20. So I encourage you to get exceptionally high so that you think I'm funny.

[00:22:43]I don't even know if I'm going to say funny stuff there.

[00:22:47]Don't know what's going to happen. We've been rehearsing like madmen over here, though.

[00:22:51]Figuring out how to do all the things and broadcast and not blow it.

[00:22:55]Um but yeah, I mean, you know, do the 4/20 thing. Help me out. Show up.

[00:23:00]Uh we're going to do this every single day into perpetuity, every weekday. It's like I have a job now.

[00:23:06]All right, guys. That's all I got. We will see you on Monday for macro Monday followed by The Daily Wolf on Yahoo Finance.

[00:23:14]Oh, I don't have an outro video set. Let me do that so that I can leave. Bye.

[00:23:20]Let's go.

[00:23:25]>> [music] [music] >> Let's go.