Predicting Top 2026 UFA Contracts

[00:00:00]What is going on guys? Welcome back to another video. And based on some of the pending 2026 unrestricted free agency contracts that we have seen recently, like Michael McCarron getting six years at $3.3 million, as well as a no trade clause, like a full no trade clause the first three years of that deal, as well as Charlie Coyle getting a six-year deal at $6 million. He's going to be like 34 midway through next season. I think we can agree that this year in unrestricted free agency, there are going to be some absolutely massive overp payments. So, I thought that we'd have some fun and predict what some of the top 2026 uh unrestricted free agents contracts are going to look like. We of course did this for the 2026 and 2027 restricted free agents. Guys like Jason Robertson, Conor Bard, Melabbrini. Feel free to go watch that video. We're not going to have as many difference makers. is going to be talking about like 32-year-old middle sixers getting way too much money over way too much term which is maybe more fun just to see like this guy's going to get overpaid and then of course like week of free agency I'll do a video where I predict where I think that they're going to go. We still don't know what exactly every single team's cap space is going to be heading into free agency. So just today we are going to be be predicting the overpays that will happen in 2026 out of restricted free agency. I suggest you have some kind of like barf bag next to you because some of these are probably going to shock you. These are how much I think that these respective players are going to get. And we are starting off with a guy that's that might not be signed by July 1st, but he's not going to be leaving his team. We got to shout out Ovetkin. I think a one-year deal at $8 million.

[00:01:37]Makes sense. He's still like a good second liner and obviously very good on the power play. Had 32 goals, 32 assists, 64 points last year. And if he returns, the management, the ownership, they'll make their money back in terms of like the last dance, ticketing sales, jersey sales, and all that. So, if he returns, it'll be most likely a one-year deal in like the seven to eight point. I don't think he's going to get 9.5 what he's getting paid before, but he's still going to get a healthy amount to return because there's obviously a big financial incentive. And Washington has a salary cap to make this work. Right now, even if they give him this, give Mcichael like a $5 million deal, they have like $20 million of salary cap.

[00:02:12]though they're not going to be pinching pennies if Alexander Ovetchkin does decide to return. Next up, Jacob Trouba.

[00:02:21]Six years, $6 million for the 32-year-old right-handed defenseman. I could easily see him returning to the Anaheim Ducks just because him and Jackson Lome were so so good together throughout the season, especially in the playoffs against the Edmonton Oilers.

[00:02:35]And yeah, he has really redeemed his reputation this season having 35 points, being solid defensively. It's clear that like [ __ ] just went south in New York and he was overpaid at $8 million. But yeah, for a second pair right-handed defenseman on the open market, that's going to cost a decent amount. I think on a four to five year deal, we could see 7 $7.5 million. But in this situation, he maybe maybe decides to opt for more term, more control, more security than say a short payday. I would lean towards him maybe resigning in Anaheim at this point. But they have another right-handed defenseman that we're going to be talking about later on in this video. Alex Duck. I probably put him on the thumbnail. Seven years, $10.25 million. This would obviously I I wouldn't be comfortable giving him anything over $9 million. I think he will hit the unrestricted free agency market. I think Buffalo should just considering they have guys like Zack Benson. Uh they have guys like Krebs, some younger guys that are going to need contracts relatively soon. So I would say like go get your $10 million offer somewhere else. I also don't think that this would be like the worst deal of all time for a team that back if it's like Seattle obviously it's not going to move the needle at at all but Alex Tuck is like a consistent as he put this year like 30 and 30 guy you know that you're getting a good player this is not going to be some kind of god god aawful deal he might fall off once he reaches like 34 35 but 6'3 forwards wingers topline wingers don't really come around too often where I wouldn't like despise this deal if it was a team that maybe is an Alex tuck away from getting into serious contention. I wouldn't hate it, but it's probably going to be some kind of dog [ __ ] team that that really just doesn't need him that much. Uh, but yeah, he's one of the actual potential true difference makers in this unrestricted free agency class. So, I think 10 makes makes sense. 10.25 Millie. Next up, Stuart Skinner. I think that there is going to be a decent market for Steuart Skinner as kind of your 1B break in case of emergency if your starting goalie is kind of crapping his pants. So three years 3.5 and maybe that sounds like a lot. Like two to three years ago that was like 1A kind of money. But at this point I think that this makes sense. A 27year-old he's not that much old. He's not that old. So you don't have to worry about like some kind of regression from your goalie. He was much better once he got out of Edmonton.

[00:04:48]Once he was in Pittsburgh, I think he had like eight goals saved above expected. So yeah, he's a guy that can give you 30 to 35 games uh in the regular season. A less of a workload.

[00:04:57]Could probably put up like an 895, a 900. I know it doesn't sound that good, but in the modern NHL, that's pretty solid. And then come playoff time, he has that experience where he can maybe put together, he could steal a series come playoff time. So, I think that there is going to be a solid market for Steuart Skinner wherever he ends up.

[00:05:13]Next up, Victor Arvdson. I think that he is a good case of like a team that just has just has a [ __ ] ton of salary cap and they're like, we'll give you a one to twoyear deal. A little bit too much AAV, which $6.25 $25 million definitely would be too much AAV, but considering the fact he had 25 goals, 54 points in 69 games played. If he can stay healthy, that is a big if, he can be a solid 50 55 point guy. He can play alongside some youngsters and then you can maybe flip him in a year or two where I think that he is a prime candidate for maybe one of those help a team reach the salary cap floor. And he still does have a decent amount of game. Again, he was very good this season after Edmonton gave him that two-year deal at $4 million in the 2024 off season, flopped the first year, and then he bounced back. He definitely made himself an absolute [ __ ] ton of money this summer. Next up, Connor Murphy.

[00:06:02]Speaking of the Edmonton Oilers, three years, $5 million. He is getting up there in age, but he's a 6'4 right-handed defenseman that is very good defensively. This is a guy that is going to be in premium demand. Wouldn't surprise me if it goes to four years, $4.5 million, or even three years, like 5.5. The thing is, he has always kind of been underrated, it seems like, in NHL circles. So, I'm not sure he's going to get like 5.5, 5.75. If I was Edmonton, move out Darnell Nurse, resign this guy.

[00:06:30]You have badly needed that kind of second pair right-handed defenseman, and he could be that for the foreseeable future. Obviously, not the best offensive numbers. He's known for his defense. I think he's going to get a solid payday. Freddy Anderson, I don't know if he's going to resside or not because they they have Busy obviously under contract the next three seasons.

[00:06:48]They have Kachchov. This is more so if he hits the open market. I think if he returns to Carolina, it's going to be like a one-year deal at two 2.5, but I think he might have been good enough come playoff time to get himself a decent amount of a payday from a team that needs a veteran presence in net. A guy that can still give you 35 games in the regular season. And although again wasn't the hardest competition, but did play really good up until the Stanley Cup final. So he's definitely I I Carolina Hurricanes fans, let me know in the comments like do they not trust Kachchov enough injury-wise where they're going to bring back Freddy Freddy because obviously Busy's like going to probably be be the guy going forward and will you resign Anderson and have their goalies wouldn't make that much money, but again three goalies, one goalie not on the roster that's making like two $2.5 million seems a little bit strange and a little bit unorthodox.

[00:07:34]Next up, Beck Malenstein. Four years, $3.5 million. He's 6'3. He hits a lot and he's fast. He might have only seven goals, 14 points. Fun fact, he was traded to Buffalo for the pick that became Cole Hudson. That's his last legacy. But I think that he's going to get paid because we always see these big physical speedsters get paid on the open market like basically consistent consistently. I would not touch him with the 10-ft pull, which I say that. And now Matthew Dar is definitely going to sign Beck Malstein to this kind of deal.

[00:08:05]This deal is gross. But I think someone might see that like he was better in Buffalo compared to Washington and he was pretty solid defensively this year.

[00:08:12]They might be like in our system he could work out. He could be a very good third liner 35point guy. I don't think it's going to happen. But someone will pay him like that because that always seems to happen in unrestricted free agency. Eric Hall two years $5 million.

[00:08:27]I think similarly to Arvidson, a team that just has leftover salary cap is like he'll bring him in for a year or two. We can flip him always and he can be like a third line center. He was very good at the Olympics and it was still shocking that the National Predators decided to to not trade him after the Olympics at the trade deadline when his value was very high. Still at 38 points.

[00:08:46]His analytics are pretty [ __ ] Again, I I would not personally give him this contract, but you just see how many teams have leftover salary cap. And Eric Hall can still be a useful bottom sixer.

[00:08:55]So again, not that much term because he's 35 years old, but I think he could make sense on a middling team that maybe thinks adding Eric Colola can help us get into the playoffs. Veteran leadership, all of that [ __ ] This is a deal that I actually would do if I was a team. Three years, $4.25 million for Michael Bunting, who has consistently been like a 20 20 goal, 25 point middle sixer. This would be solid. He's only 30 years old. His value is going to be lower considering it kind of ended poorly in Dallas. It was looking like maybe he was going to get some kind of four to fiveyear deal at $4.55 million, but he goes to Dallas. He ends up I don't think that he should have been scratched, but he ends up getting like healthy scratched during the playoffs.

[00:09:32]So, I think that he's going to be cheap and I think he could be a solid ad, a good third liner on a competitive team.

[00:09:38]This is actually maybe the first deal where I would like sign off of I would be complimentary on if a team did this.

[00:09:44]Next up, Scott Laden. Four years, 4.5.

[00:09:48]Not the best offensive totals. He was much better in LA. still 32 years old.

[00:09:53]He's going to get a solid payday just because he is a center as you see up there in the top left. That is going to net him a solid amount. He's maybe like the third or fourth best setter on the open market. But uh yeah, he definitely lost himself a lot of money basically since he got traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs. He was maybe looking at like a 5 by 5.5 at last year's deadline if there was some kind of extension. Not going to be the case, but he's still going to get paid more than he should definitely because he's a center. Oliver Bjorkstrand, 31 years old, right-winger, had consistently been like a 25 goal, 55point guy when he was in Columbus, when he was in Seattle. Obviously just did not fit in Tampa. He was kind of slotted in like a third line role, did not get the opportunities that he used to. I think him on a one-year deal at like $5 million, kind of like a prove it deal where he maybe goes to a lesser team, but he just plays like a bunch in the top six, maybe on a top power play, and then gets traded at the deadline.

[00:10:46]And then next summer at 32, he signed some kind of three-year deal at like5.5 million dollars. I think that that could make a lot of sense. Again, teams are just going to have salary cap laying around. So, I could see them attracting Oliver Bjorkstran on a shorter term deal, kind of prove it deal for both parties that we have seen kind of become popular in the last couple of years.

[00:11:06]Could you see him on the San Jose Sharks? Could you see him on the Chicago Blackhawks? I definitely could. Boon Jenner, someone who's going to overpay the [ __ ] out of Boon Jenner, who is like the top center on the unrestricted free agency market at this point. He's like a good third line center. He should not get a 5-year deal at 5.75 million. But I think someone's going to go crazy. You look at what Adam Lowry got like 5 years, 5 mil. Pasio's deal wasn't that bad, but still what is it like 3 years 4.75? We've seen this market. Charlie Coyle much better than Boon Jenner this year, but still six years at $6 million.

[00:11:38]Jenner is going to be chasing a payday.

[00:11:40]His prior AAV was $3.75 million. So, don't be me wrong, he's set for the rest of his life based on that. But, he's going to want some kind of serious payday as the former captain of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Wasn't willing to take some kind of hometown discount deal to stay the captain. He's going to be hitting unrestricted free agency and he's probably going to get paid a lot.

[00:11:58]again solid 45 point 50 point third line center 40 point probably 40 45 point when he goes to an actual solid team but not worth this kind of contract and someone is going to overpay Sergey Babski two years $5.5 million I think most indications are coming back to him resigning with the Florida Panthers I just think that that's kind of inevitable at this point I don't think they're trading the ninth overall pick for Gustoson or or Connor Hobbuk or something like that I think they're just going to roll the dice I think they're going bring in some kind of better backup than maybe Terasovv, but at this point it seems like Babroski is going to be back. It's definitely a risk considering he had an 877 this year and giving him $5.5 million is a serious amount for a goalender. But again, basically all signs are pointing to this and I'm not going to bet on anything different in terms that if he did at the open market, it would maybe be like three three years at $5 million, maybe a little bit more term, but I think he's going to resign in Florida. Next up, Logan Stanley. someone that lost a lot of money after getting traded. He had like seven goals in like 40 games for the Winnipeg Jets. Then he gets traded, then he slowed down a decent amount offensively. He ends up getting scratched throughout the playoffs at certain points for the Buffalo Sabres.

[00:13:11]Still going to get a healthy payday, but I thought we were genuinely looking at like a 5-year deal at like 5.5 maybe $6 million. I thought Chev was going to do some [ __ ] like that. Thankfully, he traded him. If you're Buffalo, I don't know how you resign him, but I think someone as I included his his height in this one, none of the other players because he is six foot seven. He is six foot seven and had 26 points this year.

[00:13:33]He's going to get I put him at the same contract as Cody Cece, as Ryan Lingren.

[00:13:37]He is going to get this kind of contract and it is going to be a disaster basically off rip. Someone stay away. GM stay away, but there's always a GM that will bet on a big dude that plays defense. So, it is what it is. My New York Islanders are letting Anders Lee go. If he signs this contract on the open market, I will not be that mad at Matthew Dar. Three years, 5.25. I'm sure Dar is probably offering something at like 2 years, $3.54 million because he is still a solid middle sixer, 20 and 20. Good veteran presence. I could see a Chicago bringing him in kind of as that Nick Felino replacement that is still much better. That is much better right now than a Nick Felino. But yeah, this would be too much money for a 35-year-old that has kind of regressed in the last couple of years. But hey, Anders, go get paid. He he did get he did have a 7 by7 prior, so he has been paid before, but clearly there's a disconnect. Dar wants some kind of change even though we're paying Pot and Shen a combined $12.5 million. I love my life. Anthony Mantha, four years, $6 million. Monster monster contract year.

[00:14:43]You would maybe think that it should be more. The injury risks are pretty big with Anthony Mant the last couple years.

[00:14:48]The consistency, the playoff numbers have not been there. He was invisible in their series against the Philadelphia Flyers. So, I can't go to some kind of like monster monster contract. But, yeah, he's enticing like 6'5, 33 goals this year. He made himself a lot of money playing with the Pittsburgh Penguins on that kind of prove it deal at one year's 2.5, but he was coming off a torn ACL. We'll see if someone really falls in love with him, but that's where I have him at right now. Darren Radish.

[00:15:15]I think someone's going to give Darren Radish a bag. Seven years, $8.75 million. He is an absolute howitzer of a one-timer. He can run a top power play with that goddamn shot. 70 points, 73 games. He is 30 years old. You just look at what some other guys like Brady Shay, although he had a longer track record, seven by seven back in the 2024 off season. So, I think Radish is going to get [ __ ] paid. I think he is going to get a lot of money. I could see San Jose throwing a bag at him. Not saying he's like the long-term fix in terms of their number one defenseman, but immediately plugs in on the top power play playing 22 23 minutes a night and then in three to four years the contract is only like number three defenseman money and you can somewhat live with it as long as he doesn't fall off in absolute cliff. Next up, Terasenko. One year, $3.5 million.

[00:16:02]He's kind of been just been taking these one-year deals recently. Actually, no, his his deal was a two-year deal with the Detroit Red Wings. But since he left uh since he went from Florida to Ottawa, don't think he's going to get some kind of long-term deal. He is a shrieky player. When he's on, he still has it.

[00:16:15]This year was a solid year in Minnesota.

[00:16:18]I could see him just hop team to team the next like three to four years.

[00:16:21]Minnesota might not have the salary cap to bring him back this year and especially going forward. They're a little bit capite, but we'll see. One year, $3.5 million. Pretty solid low cost uh low cost, high reward kind of deal. Patrick Kane, one year, 2.5. Will it be with Detroit? I don't know. Now, now this Dylan Larkin [ __ ] of course is happening, but I think a one-year deal at 2.5 with a bunch of bonuses. If he hits 60, if he hits 70 points and $500,000 or something like that, that's the way that his contracts have been structured the last couple of years. So, I'm expecting more of the same.

[00:16:53]Definitely an alloffense winger. He was kind of always an alloffensive winger, but now especially, but he has produced offensively. His offense has outweighed his defensive deficiencies the last couple of years. Still, 57 points in 67 games. Maybe he goes to a different team. Let me know in the comments if if Kane changes teams. Where do you think he could end up? Next up, the Minnesota Wild and Matt Sugurello. I see some kind of two-year deal at like 3 3.5. His last contract was 2 years, like 4.1. So, he gets an extra year. He gets a little bit of security. This would be an awesome deal for the Minnesota Wild. Of course, I I just don't see him leaving considering him and Capri off have been so good the last couple of years. He had 54 points in 59 games. Obviously, a lot of that is like because of Capri off.

[00:17:35]It's not like he's going to hit the open market and get some kind of five-year deal at $7 million. He's 38 years old. I think he's going to retire with the Minnesota Wild. So, uh, this deal would be very good for the Minnesota Wild, and I see it happening. Next up, we got a pretty stinky one. Mason Marchment, 6 years, $6.5 million. And as you see, I literally only have his Columbus stats there because he was an absolute beast.

[00:17:59]Once he went to Columbus, he was like about half a point per game in Seattle.

[00:18:02]But 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points in 39 games. I think he probably will resign with Columbus just because he had so much success. And Don Madell has given out some absolutely batshit [ __ ] extensions, whether it's Prover 7 years, 8.5. Coyle 6 years, six. So yeah, he's 30 years old, 6 years, 6.5 for a 6'5 uh winger that has been very productive. If he hits the open market, I think that he would still get something around here just because he is he's one of the more younger unrestricted free agent wingers at 30 years old. And he has been in the right situations. Florida, Columbus, he has been very, very productive. Even Dallas, he was productive. Just took some of the dumbest penalties of all time come playoff time and eventually got shipped out. But, uh, yeah, he's in line for a big big time, uh, payday considering what he did the back half of last season. John Carlson. It's going to be probably a two or threeyear deal.

[00:18:56]Apparently, a two-year deal would be like 8.59 million. So, I decided to go with a three-year deal. I think a three-year deal could make sense. Yes, he is 36 years old. He still had 60 points in 71 games this year. He was still like a top 25 defenseman in the NHL. So, whether it's Anaheim or whether it's someone else on the open market thinking, "Holy shit." Like imagine like if Toronto ships out Morgan Riley and they're like we bring in John Corlson for the next two to three years to run our top power play. He is still extremely valuable. Yes, the final year of that deal might be pretty bad, but even then I think that he can still be like a 5 to6 million dollar defenseman.

[00:19:31]He is still uber uber talented offensively where yeah, I think that he's in line for still one more payday remaining. Two to threeyear deal does change things. Two years again it could be like $9 million. three years. I got him at seven.75.

[00:19:47]Next up, we got Rasmus Anderson. This is a guy that that has definitely lost a lot of money the last one to two years.

[00:19:53]I still think that he's going to get a huge payday, six years, $8 million just because in part because of that prior pedigree. But the last year and a half, like if he continued to play it the way that he did in 2023, 2024, he'd be looking at seven years or if he resigned with the team, like eight years, 8.5, maybe $9 million. But I think he did get dinged a little bit since he arrived with the Vegas Knights. Even before that in Calgary, he wasn't playing that good.

[00:20:17]And especially in this playoff run, he has not been particularly too good. But at the end of the day, he is a right-handed defenseman. He has logged number not number one, top pair of minutes in the past, so he's going to get a lot of money. That's basically a rule of thumb. But I do think that he is obviously no longer the top right-handed defenseman that goes to Darren Radish in this class. Still going to get a lot. I have been six years, $8 million. Then to finish it off with Mr. Jason Dickinson, five years, $4.25 million, very good defensive center. You saw him, although they did dump the MJ Pani deal in that contract. The Oilers gave up a first round pick to get him. I could see them resigning him, giving him too much term at 5 years to get that AAV lower. I think if it's a three, fouryear deal, you're looking at like five 5.5 million most likely. So I decided to go like they did with Trent Frederick to get the AAV down on that deal. They go with five years, 4.25. He's an established very good center. Is he more so like a fourthline center than a third line center in my in my opinion? Yes. But he's going to get paid because again, the center market is so absolute [ __ ] this year. But yeah, let me know in the comments what do you think of these 2026 understood free agent contract predictions. Which ones do you not want your team nearly coming close to? Which ones do you think? Oh, actually that wouldn't be that bad of a deal. I want to hear from you guys and I'll be seeing the next one.