What's Inside: SpaceX Finally Releases Juicy Financials Ahead of IPO

追加: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Okay, so this is not a drill. Finally, we have the S1 filing for the upcoming SpaceX IPO. In the last video I made about IPOs, someone asked, "What's an IPO?" Well, it's SpaceX's initial public offering, and this is going to be historical. Um, for many years now, people have been wondering when SpaceX might go public. It's finally happening and we now have an over 300page document with some details that I wanted to bring my husband in to chat about because he's much more financially savvy than I am.

[00:00:38]And I think there's already some questions that I had right off the bat.

[00:00:43]I know a lot of people want to invest in SpaceX and, you know, reading just the first two pages of the filing, they don't disclose how many shares there are in the, you know, how much the share price is. And you're saying that's normal. This isn't something that, you know, SpaceX is withholding, but this is normal at this stage. Yes.

[00:01:03]>> In the game.

[00:01:04]>> Yeah. It's normal. Well, do you want to pull it up?

[00:01:06]>> Yeah.

[00:01:06]>> Okay. Okay. So, yeah, we're seeing we've seen a lot of blanks here on the second page. um uh >> we are offering blank shares of our class A common stock.

[00:01:17]>> So what they're doing and is is that they're they're trying to raise money through this. So they're going to have to sell shares in order to get cash. And so the reason why they aren't going to do something like why in a lot of companies, this thing is this isn't uncommon. A lot of companies in these very initial S1s, they won't put this because they don't know what the share price is going to be and they don't know how much money they're going to be able to raise. They just don't know it yet.

[00:01:43]So, they can't even put that in here because they haven't they're not done with their road show. So, they need to go to all of these banks and get investment from the banks and to figure out what's actually a somewhat fair market value on this thing. Because you could say your company's worth 1.7 trillion, but if no one's buying in on it, then you don't know what it is. And so, let's say you're a one I mean, you use easy numbers. Let's say you're a $100 company and you're trying to raise $50. Well, then you go, "Okay, well then I need to sell at least 50% of shares. I need to at least do a dilution of 50% in order to get that $50." But if you learn that, let's say you're actually a $200 company, well then you actually only need to dilute 25%. And that going to change your share price. It's going to it's going to change the entire structure of how you do the IPO. So, they simply aren't reporting this cuz they don't know yet. They have to finish their road show in order to find out how much money are they actually going to do. And generally speaking, you want to raise as much money as possible, but no more. You don't want to sell more of your company than necessary, >> right? Which, by the way, there's, you know, uh, software like Goodell Terminal where you can sort of track this. And I wanted to mention that this will be listed on the NASDAQ. The ticker we now know is SPCX for SpaceX. Very fitting.

[00:02:59]But what would you say about those numbers? Because they've been fluctuating around, you know, maybe $630. Is that an accurate estimate and why are why is there a number there and not yet in in the document?

[00:03:11]>> Yeah, so it it's hard to know for sure.

[00:03:13]Um but there's a few things I mentioned.

[00:03:15]Number one is it is split their shares.

[00:03:17]So it's no longer trading at $600. It's trading at $110, right? So I think it was a 5 to1 split.

[00:03:24]>> Correct.

[00:03:24]>> So everything got divided by five there.

[00:03:26]Um that is I will say like that is a little unusual. You usually don't see splits this close to an IPO, but it makes sense because it's the valuation has gotten so high. And um >> so why would they do that? Sorry to cut you off, but why would they do that?

[00:03:40]Because um that was very recent.

[00:03:43]>> So I mean it's there's a question of like why you would ever do a stock split, right? And there's an argument to have that you shouldn't ever do it. But for the most part, it's it kind of it's it's kind of a it's such a minor issue to on the corporate level when a company thinks about splitting its stock to like retail investors, it might mean a lot because like, oh, if a share is at $1,000 relative to a hundred, you might not have $1,000. So now you can't buy this company, but you can do almost every brokerage has fractional shares.

[00:04:12]You can buy, you know, 0.2 two of a of a shares and it'll be at the same value or whatever. But the a bigger reason why is because it changes when you do things like options. You have to buy uh you have to buy baskets of shares and so it makes it let's say it increases the liquidity of options and there's a bunch of reasons why a company may want that.

[00:04:34]For the most part though like on a retail side we are really like we look at like splits and stuff like that a lot. it. No one really cares that much though. It's just not that big of a deal. Like, you know, if we own SpaceX stock, who cares, right? You know, whatever. We own five times as many shares and these are are worth 1/5. Um, so, you know, largely speaking, why would they do that? I think it's because going to market with shares that could be in the $600 range is a little high. A lot of companies will split their shares around that point to bring them into the $150 range. And so it seems like what they're doing here. And I don't know, there's a bunch of reasons it can be, but it's probably to increase options liquidity. And and really if if one bank that they're doing the road show was like, "Hey, we think you should split it." They'll probably just split it because they don't care. This doesn't matter to them. And that's my take on it. It it's a little interesting because I think that you just don't usually see this right before something like this, but it's their shares have in increased in price so quickly that it does make sense for a company like this to probably do a split right before IPO.

[00:05:40]And then if you're talking about like, oh, they don't know what it is because there's these secondary markets where you can see this this trade and you kind of know what it's going for. The thing is that that's not a great accurate depiction of it because the volume on it and the amount of shares that are traded per per day is significantly lower when this actually gets listed. Like it's going to be uh I don't know. I'm going to throw out a number. I think it's going to be like 1,000th what what it will be once they actually list this thing. So it's an okay indication of what these will be trading at. But the other thing too is is that the people who are trading these shares, they don't have this information yet, too. They and they're not going to have all of the information as all these things start getting released and we know what this looks like. They're going to start trading at what that actual price is.

[00:06:21]And in other words, like every the shares we're seeing trade now have asymmetric information. I mean, it could be insiders, but like and there is some of that going on, but for the most part, it's people flying blind. They're saying, "I want to invest in SpaceX, but I have none of their filings. I I don't have their income statement. So the the share price might radically change once we see that income statement.

[00:06:42]>> So it's an okay indication, but it's not a great indication.

[00:06:44]>> So let's talk about cuz this is today this was released. We're on May 20th. Uh my understanding is that I think the road show is going to be like June 4th.

[00:06:54]So early June. They have that road show.

[00:06:57]Then they're projected to IPO sometime next month, which is June. And then what are we predicting? Are we predicting kind of a a a um artificial rise or boom? You know what I you know what I'm trying to say? I'm I'm saying it terribly because >> Yeah. No, no, it makes sense. It makes sense, right? And that's like I mean it is technically a billion dollar question, right? And uh and truly like if you knew if I knew where it was going, if anybody knows where where the price is going, they can make billions of dollars off this within the first week. And like I'm not, you know, not exaggerating. You can easily do that.

[00:07:32]And that's the thing of like anyone who's saying they know which way it's going to go probably doesn't know what they're talking about and they're they're overly confident of predictions.

[00:07:39]You you just don't you just don't know how the market's going to respond to this one. And so which way is it going to go after IPO? What is the exact price you're going to IPO at? Who knows? And you know this will give us some indication of how we feel about it. And how we feel about it might be an indication of how the market feels about it. But still it's really it's kind of it who knows who knows how it's going to go. Here's a post from Sawyer saying, "Great news. Retail investors will officially be offered SpaceX IPO shares.

[00:08:06]Shares will be offered to retail investors through the brokerages of Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robin Hood, Sofi, and Erade." And then quoted from SpaceX, "Any purchase of our class A common stock in this offering through these platforms will be at the same IPO price and at the same time as any other purchases in this offering, including purchases by institutions and other large investors."

[00:08:32]>> That's interesting. Okay.

[00:08:32]>> Is that significant and why? Yeah, it's it's a bit it's an interesting one because usually what will happen is if you want to get in on an IPO, what you're what most people mean when they say that is that they're going to buy on the day of IPO and it's and you know if you want to get in, okay, so what is it going to IPO at? It's going to IPO at $200. The odds of you actually getting 200 200 for it is is is very unlikely because the shares will immediately start addressing as soon as they're hit on market up >> whatever down up whatever. And so in other words, it's not like, oh, it IPOs at 200, stays at 200. It's almost guaranteed that it whatever it IPOs at, it will not end the day at that price.

[00:09:10]>> We just don't know if it's going to go up or down. This one sounds like what they're going to do is they're going to reserve shares for a for essentially a preIPO. So you can guarantee buy them at, as an example, $200 and you will have those shares before they actually start trading hands. That's how that reads to me. And sometimes they do that like Reddit did that as well and some companies do this but usually they don't offer it to like the retail market at that. That's that's really what that's what Meil Lynch is buying and Goldman Sachs that's what they're buying on these pre-eter. So is that a good thing or is that a bad thing? We don't know.

[00:09:43]And Goldman Sachs makes the same risk, right? Cuz cuz uh if they say, "Yeah, we like this valuation 200." And the market just disagrees and it totally plummets, well then you you just lost a ton of money. And so you don't know. In some ways, you could say, "Man, I really want to buy into this IPO." It IPOs, the the price crashes in the first hour, and you're like, "Well, then, you know, thank goodness I didn't buy into IPO."

[00:10:05]Then it's a blessing. So, we don't know.

[00:10:07]Blessing and the curse. We don't know how that's going to go, right?

[00:10:10]>> It's it's anyone's gamble on it.

[00:10:12]>> So, Anthropic has agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May of 2029 for AI compute capacity. With capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee, Elon Musk said, "As the recently expanded partnership with Anthropic AI demonstrates, SpaceX is offering AI compute as a service at significant scale. We are in discussions with other companies to do the same.

[00:10:43]Over time, especially with orbital data centers, we expect to serve AI at extremely high scale."

[00:10:51]>> Yeah. Yeah. So, >> so I mean, so I think there's a few ways to take it, right? So, let's take it from like an optimistic way, which I think is probably a more realistic thing. Um, Elon Musk has been pretty good about uh playing pretty hard into this AI thing and, uh, XAI has a lot of compute, uh, a lot of compute power and compute power is is worth its weight in gold right now. So, um, uh, I mean, that's the reason why everyone's trying to get into it. So that's like an optimistic. Elon Musk saw this coming.

[00:11:24]He has created data centers and he is selling this off to companies like Anthropic for a lot of money. These are probably extremely high margin and um and so that's great, right? There's a pessimistic take on this one too though, which is that actually the uh XAI has a lot less demand. Grock has a lot less demand than they originally thought. So Elon Musk accidentally over spent on compute and now he kind of got lucky on the back end and that he's able to sell it off which he's able to. Now, I think you can even if you have a pessimistic take, I think that's overly pessimistic because you can say, well, maybe it's true that they did over buy on compute, but that's a super safe thing to over buy on and um because you can I mean, it's tough to imagine this, but Elon Musk's a smart guy like like you would be able to say if who cares if you can't use it for what you want to do internally. In fact, even if you do want to use it internally, you might be able to lease it out for more than you can do internally. And so, generally speaking, um I mean, that's interesting. That's a lot of money that's going to come into them and uh we'll see where it goes.

[00:12:29]Now, of course, a big talk would be that we are in a a semi-memory super cycle and those are both commodity markets. So, they have been since the 80s and the whole question is is it still a commodity? Is it not? Is this thing going to crash? When will it crash? Who knows? So, what could be a lot of revenue they're getting here if it's like oh they're going to get uh you know $1.2 billion in perpetuity forever?

[00:12:52]Well, almost certainly not. Um, right now is the best time to sell compute.

[00:12:58]Well, I might be wrong. Maybe in three years will be the best time. Maybe we still are ramping up on a super cycle.

[00:13:02]So, um, it's interesting. Um, and it's interesting they're making so much revenue off of a leasing AI leasing deals. I mean, that's that's pretty remarkable to think about.

[00:13:12]>> I can't get away from AI even if I wanted to. It sounds like I'm forced to cover it now because >> you I mean, you will have to >> because as we noticed, it's not just SpaceX. It's SpaceX and X AI and X that are mentioned in this perspectus. So, uh yeah, I guess I have to start accepting that covering AI will be part of my job.

[00:13:38]>> I mean, it's certainly the story of the last two years and and there is no way to escape what's happened here. And when you think about the investment that the company that all these companies are making right now, the largest companies in the world, you know, Nvidia just reported earnings and they are the highest earnings for a quarter that's ever been reported ever outside of Google and Google's earnings were higher just because Anthropic, an AI company, they they reported those as earnings because it's gone up in value so much.

[00:14:06]So like it it's one of those things of like it's tough to look at anything that's going on in the market. So you can think about this. the amount of money that's going into it is the largest capex investment humanity has ever made on anything.

[00:14:16]>> Okay. Um, here's one that I wonder, this is the one that I was trying to find.

[00:14:21]SpaceX's IPO filing reveals it has a staggered insider share lockup structure instead of one giant unlock all at once.

[00:14:31]There's no typical six-month lockup. So, here's how it works. After the Q226 earnings, up to 20% of eligible insider shares unlock. If the stock trades at 30% or more above IPO price for five of 10 days, another 10% unlocks. Additional 7% unlocks occur at 70, 90, 105,120 in 135 days post IPO. After Q3 2026 earnings, another 28% unlocks. remaining shares unlock after 180 days. Elon Musk is not part of the early release provisions, meaning his shares remain locked longer.

[00:15:12]>> Mhm.

[00:15:13]>> Is that a big deal?

[00:15:14]>> Well, so I mean, it's a it's an it's an interesting way to do it. It's a way that makes sense, though. Like, I I think that they're probably thinking that a lot of SpaceX employees are going to be selling their shares very quickly.

[00:15:26]Um, and um, uh, there's I mean there's good reason to even if you work at SpaceX, people really lose their mind over this. Even if you work at SpaceX and even if you're super bullish on SpaceX, you still might want to sell your shares because the amount of time it takes for these things to happen and the amount of money like if you are early at SpaceX, you could be like super wealthy and not have any cash, right?

[00:15:54]Like, yeah, you're getting a salary from SpaceX, but you aren't getting your shares. And so, you could have you could be a deca millionaire, but not actually have. So, you might want to like if like in our position, let's say we had a ton of money in SpaceX, right? And I've been working there for 10 years, then I might just want to sell regardless if I think the company's going to do well because at least we would have some money during a pivotal time when you're going to have a kid, right? And like if you say, "Oh, well, you you should have held that for 10 more years." is just like, "Yeah, but humans only live for like, you know, 70 80 years." So, like that's that's 1/8 of it. So, like I think that they're worried that that and that's probably a good concern that a lot of SpaceX employees are going to be selling their shares and they don't want they don't want it to dump hard cuz then you kind of get into a feedback loop too is that let's say some employees start selling a lot of their shares and the market can't catch up and and let's say stabilize the price quick enough, price starts dropping, all the other employees start freaking out. all of their net worth is in this thing. They start selling and before you know it, you're hitting all the circuit breakers and this thing goes down very quickly. And one thing that's at least encouraging about that, it makes sense to do this kind of staggered the do the staggered kind of lockup period. Um, and it's nice to see that Elon Musk is not part of that.

[00:17:08]>> You don't want your CEO to be part of that. Like your CEO shouldn't be selling shares with him. Like you either sell it during an IPO or you should wait a while and allow your employees to sell and do.

[00:17:18]So, I think it's a I think it's a good thing he's doing that and it seems cool.

[00:17:22]Like, that's good for him.

[00:17:23]>> Our son is kicking a lot, so he must agree with you.

[00:17:26]>> Yeah. Good. Good.

[00:17:27]>> This says Elon Musk also has a combined voting power of 85.1% of SpaceX and owns 93.6% of all class B stock.

[00:17:37]>> Each share of class A common stock will entitle its holder to one vote per share. Each share of class B common stock will give the holder 10 votes per share. Okay. So, A has less votings and then B has more. Okay. Yeah. So, um some Okay. It's interesting to see how they actually did that vote split. Uh people have been losing their mind over this one a little bit, which I find kind of hilarious in a way. So, a lot of people are like, "Well, this is this is a this is a scam company, right? The Bears would say, "Oh, this is a scam, right?

[00:18:06]because you're going to own this company and he's completely manipulated the voting class of the shares to basically guarantee the fact that he will always be in control of this company which means that he's unfirable because he can set the board of directors and he can always elect himself to be the CEO and it allows him to effectively almost do anything with the company that he wants without any risk of being fired as a CEO. And now you could say, well that's really bad and this thing's a scam. But it's kind of worth remembering though a little bit that they are disclosing this. So if you don't like it, don't buy it. Right? And then but furthermore and maybe the more important thing to understand about this too is like this isn't unheard of. A bunch of companies do this. Google does this right now. If you want to buy into SpaceX during IPO because your intention is to change the board of directors, like you almost certainly don't have enough money to do that. But furthermore, you also um you're all it's it's like a fool's errand. It's like just don't buy the company. I mean, invest in another company you think is is better run or whatever your issue is with it. And so, I don't really have any concern over it.

[00:19:12]It's that's not super unheard of. Meta did a little bit of thing, too. A lot of companies kind of set their set their companies up like this and um it just doesn't seem like it's that big of a deal.

[00:19:22]>> Yeah. SpaceX is expected to allocate up to 30% of shares to individual retailer investors. So that's the percentage we were talking about earlier.

[00:19:31]>> It's a lot more than I originally thought they would do. That's actually a pretty decent amount.

[00:19:34]>> Okay.

[00:19:35]>> I think that I don't know this for sure.

[00:19:37]I think that 30% allocated to retail is actually quite significantly more than most companies IPO at. I don't quote me on that, but I'm that number seems high to me. Okay, so the so Okay, so this is this is a weird IPO because it's value it's a valuation be 1.75 trillion roughly. That's a number that's kind of being thrown out thrown around. So, it's going to be the most uh it's the highest value IPO in history and um and it's probably one of the most unique companies on Earth. So, we don't really know what's going to like the market doesn't know how to perceive this yet and it's going to take them many years to figure it out. This is true with kind of any company that's in a new segment.

[00:20:18]And um you know, it's a stupid example, but his example is like people in the late 90s had no idea how to value tech companies. And so that's one of the reasons you see the dot bubble and things like that is like the market is just not efficiently allocating capital.

[00:20:32]But there's also an argument to say that like yeah, but they a lot of those people actually got it right in some ways too. Like they said tech's going to be the future. These companies be the most profitable in the world. And they were right. They were just 20 years too early. Um so one thing is that this this is a I think I was talking to you a little about this. I like how they've kind of gone with this IPO. You see this through finance and in legal stuff. It's a lot more colorful. It's a lot more colorful and like it's not as like corporate as you get. You know, one thing that really stands out on this one is just how many images they use >> and infographics, right? They make it really digestible.

[00:21:07]>> Yeah.

[00:21:08]>> Some great images.

[00:21:09]>> So, you can actually read this thing. I mean, you know, there's actually something to be read here. And you know, then it's important too because you have to like who when they made this thing there. This isn't some desk jockey who made it. like they were very care.

[00:21:24]They're asking they're asking for essentially an evaluation $1.7 trillion.

[00:21:29]Many people went through this with a fine tooth comb in order to understand exactly how it's presented. And so it's just worth mentioning that that's that's something to think about because it means that the photos and how they use them and how they're presenting the company and what they want to point to your attention is is intentional. It's not a mistake, right? And so um >> Okay. So you know one is that we see their kind of space right we have the space little highlight here they're talking about this so what do they think what do they think is important for investors to know right so they're talking about total launches right they're talking about crew uh the crew members flown right well that's interesting right because I don't actually hear a lot of talk from them right now that this is like crew members flown is one of their metrics they're looking at right but they do list it here pretty early on you know so we don't it gives you an indication Okay, connectivity, right? So they're they're splitting their company here, right?

[00:22:24]This is how they think about the company, how they want the market to think about the company goes space goes connectivity, right? You have your own metrics here. Then you go AI, right?

[00:22:33]Very serious in AI. Then what they're doing with their AI as well is they're posting uh their compute power. They're posting their daily post. So this can be now Twitter, right? This be X and um and then you see these, you know, monthly active users. And this is something that we just before the acquisition we never would have they wouldn't have ever posted a number like this outside of like oh what is our Starlink subscription but monthly active users is a is a metric that someone like at OpenAI and Anthropic and everyone is really concerned with and particularly social media companies. So just something interesting to to take note of is how they're presenting this, right?

[00:23:09]Very spacey, very whatever, you know, it's it's cool.

[00:23:12]>> And then of course the mission statement, which you know, we've heard variations of it many times to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multilanetary to understand the true nature of the universe and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars. I swear if I hear light of consciousness, I feel like >> Yep.

[00:23:31]>> It's so overused.

[00:23:32]>> Oh, and I'm with you. I mean they really dedicate a lot of slides to these uh you know phenomenal pictures and I do think that I I agree with them to some extent at least as far as like you have to see it to believe it to understand the value of this company you have to look at what they're actually doing and it's almost self-evident in the fact that it's >> um just by seeing a rocket launch you go like wow that's going to be really hard to compete against that right that's not their mission statement you got it wrong here's their new mission statement >> okay well how do how do you know I got it wrong >> because it's a different mission statement. Read it.

[00:24:06]>> Well, this is the mission statement in the perspectus summary.

[00:24:09]>> Mhm.

[00:24:10]>> Our mission is to build the systems and technology necessary to make life multilanetary. Well, that's what they said above. To understand the true nature of the universe and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.

[00:24:22]>> That's exactly right.

[00:24:22]>> It's not done yet.

[00:24:24]>> Okay. It's continued. To do this, we have formed the most ambitious vertically integrated innovation engine on and off Earth with unmatched capabilities to rapidly manufacture and launch space-based communications that connect the world to harness the sun to power a truth seeking artificial intelligence that advances scientific discovery and ultimately to build the base on the moon and cities on other planets.

[00:24:51]>> Right. I I I point it out because it's an interesting thing they did there.

[00:24:55]right? They they have our mission and a mission statement that's that's different. And of course, the first sentence is the same, but all the rest of it isn't. And so, you have to go, it's not a mistake, right? Somebody didn't make a mistake in doing this.

[00:25:08]They did it very intentionally. And now, I will say their original short mission statement is nice and snappy. It's cool.

[00:25:15]But I can understand that someone in the boardroom would go, "Yeah, but the market isn't." they're going to care about like, okay, but how do you make money on extending the light of consciousness, right? Well, here's something that gets it a little more.

[00:25:28]It's still it's still grandiose, but it's a little more clear about here's AI right in this thing. We're an AI company. They did their whole uh XAI acquisition. They've done that. They're positioning themselves differently. And as they develop, I guarantee you this mission statement is going to start molding together and it's going to look it's going to look different. They've essentially changed their mission statement to this. And I over time it's going to mold. It needs to be shorter.

[00:25:55]But like it's worth thinking about that SpaceX has a different mission statement now.

[00:25:59]>> And I get that they had the original one up above, but they're prepping the market so that they understand what's actually going on in their mission.

[00:26:06]>> That makes sense.

[00:26:06]>> Yeah. Again, we're looking at space, connectivity, and AI. Those are the segments they want the company to be thought about, right? Like that that's how they want the market to look at it, and that's how they're going to report things. This is what this is like what they're saying. It's like really important because now they're breaking out their numbers by these artificial segments that they created and no one told them to break their numbers out like this. They're doing it because they think that this is the best picture to give their company. Now internally it might be the best area to get metrics from, but we don't know that. Internally they might have other metrics and they might be hiding some that look bad because they're they're shopping right now, right? They're advertising to the market. And it's interesting to see that this is how they look at their company.

[00:26:48]>> A lot of people have been wondering, you know, SpaceX was founded in 2002.

[00:26:52]Obviously, you know, they've been successful for a while now.

[00:26:57]And honestly, pioneering for the industry, but why IPO now? Um why why are they doing this? So, here's what they have to say. For the entirety of its existence, human civilization has lived on a single celestial body, Earth.

[00:27:12]The current paradigm in which human civilization is confined to one planet exposes humanity to existential threats that are unpredictable and uncontrollable on a planetary scale. By moving beyond the only home we have ever known, we ensure species level redundancy and that the light of consciousness will not be tied to a single planet subject to the inevitable hazards of a harsh and vast universe. We do not want humans to have the same fate as dinosaurs. We want to give them a reason to look ahead with excitement with the prospect that we are entering an age of abundance with an endlessly prosperous and exciting future. For decades, a reality where humanity travels between the planets and the stars has felt tantalizingly close. But still locked in the pages and screens of science fiction. We are capable of better understanding the universe, exploring the universe, and ultimately making life multilanetary across the universe. We are becoming a civilization with the ability to reach beyond Earth's cradle and begin to inhabit other worlds. While we remain dedicated to this fundamental mission, our progress in accessing space continues to yield opportunities that enrich life on Earth.

[00:28:24]For example, by dramatically reducing the cost of access to space, we have been able to expand our mission to address some of the Earth's most pressing challenges, including bridging the digital divide by aiming to connect over three billion unconnected people to the internet and humanity's collective knowledge. The rapid emergence of the AI era intensifies the urgency of our mission as AI has the potential to accelerate not only space exploration but also transformative societal advancements on Earth. However, AI's ability to revolutionize human potential is directly dependent on meeting exponentially increasing resource demands. On Earth, the massive expansion of data center capacity to support growing compute demand is significantly outpacing electricity generation, which was effectively flat in the United States for approximately 15 years, growing at a compound annual growth rate of.1% from 2008 to 2023.

[00:29:23]Despite the recent increase in electricity demand from AI data centers, electricity generation in the United States has grown at an annual rate of less than 3% between 2023 and 2025.

[00:29:35]While electricity generation in China has grown at approximately twice that rate in the same time period. This supply and demand imbalance is already imposing unsustainable strains on terrestrial power grids, supply chains, and the environment. The sun contains approximately 99.8% of the solar systems energy and as a result we believe it is the only truly scalable solution to terrestrial energy constraints in the age of AI. Harnessing this energy in space is considerably more efficient than on land. Space-based solar arrays can generate more than five times the energy per unit area of terrestrial solar due to continuous illumination, lack of atmospheric interference, and optimal orientation.

[00:30:22]SpaceX is well positioned to capture the spacebased solar energy through our ability to rapidly access suns synchronous orbit through our satellite manufacturing scale and launch capability. As a result, we are expanding our footprint and harnessing the vast resources of space that are essential to sustaining technological development. Our goal is to ensure that AI becomes a force for human flourishing and a benefit to civilization rather than a catalyst for terrestrial resource depletion and instability. We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative market breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead the emergence of new trillion dollar markets on the moon, Mars, and beyond. In particular, we believe our goal of establishing a lunar presence will enable terowatt scale annual AI compute growth, support deeper space exploration and industrialization, and serve as a stepping stone to establishing a civilization on Mars. We believe the next paradigm shift for humanity is the creation of a resilient, perpetually expanding space fairing civilization that drives continuous innovation across new frontiers, ultimately propelling us to a Cardartesev type 2 status. We believe we are capable of unlocking an era of unprecedented economic expansion while also contributing to the safeguards of humanity's future against existential risk. Pretty good for a cold read.

[00:31:50]>> Great read. Great read. That's really hard to read all that.

[00:31:53]>> It's a great read, right? Okay. So, what's interesting there, right? So, it's we kind of heard this before, right? We've heard him kind of go, but it is very flowery language for an S1.

[00:32:02]And um it's I I kind of love it. I kind of love it in a way. Um like I said, it's nice to see some like uh some it's nice to see some some how do you put it?

[00:32:13]I don't know, some something that's kind of cool within the finance area. But it's also kind of interesting because you see this stuff, you know, um Apple had a very ambitious uh they had a very ambitious kind of mission statement when they were under Steve Jobs, you know, was that they wanted to make a dent in the universe, right? And um you know, it it's kind of it's an interesting mission statement because it both accepts how small we are and how inconsequential humans are. Like oh, a dent is the most you could hope for, right? But you think about it, like a dent in the universe is almost nearly impossible to make for the most part.

[00:32:49]But like this one isn't saying they're not being modest here. I mean, they're talking about the fact that this is the transformative transformative company and what their goals and aspirations are here are largely speaking um as you don't Yeah. And you you might see you will see this coming from companies who are IPOing at $5 billion and trying to sell some kind of scam hardware or whatever. You very rarely see companies that are at this level who are using this this high of like goal setting and uh grandio sort of speaking >> and you know that that's how Elon Musk has rolled so that makes sense.

[00:33:27]>> I just have to joke because people have been asking you know have you been reading books to your son and so I'm reading stuff like that and then I read like the short story that the movie Arrival is based on. So he's uh I don't know what he's going to come out thinking about but he's learning a lot about space. Yeah, we're going to we're going to read our son the SpaceX S1 filing every night.

[00:33:48]>> So, this is kind of an interesting graph here. This is uh SpaceX's estimated TAM by segment total addressable market. Our market opportunity. We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history. We estimate that a quantifiable TAM is 28.5 trillion consisting of $370 billion in space from space enabled solutions, 1.6 trillion in connectivity across 870 billion in Starlink broadband and 740 billion in Starlink mobile as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government 26.5 trillion in AI across 2.4 4 trillion in AI infrastructure, 760 billion in consumer subscriptions, 600 billion in digital advertising, and 22.7 trillion in enterprise applications. For illustrative purposes of sizing are addressable market opportunity, we exclude China and Russia from our global estimates.

[00:34:53]>> You know, of course, this is the big question, right? Is like how do you make money with a company like this? And so, um, we're sort of seeing them now. Uh, these these numbers are completely outrageous. Um, but I guess what they're mainly displaying here is that they think that it's it's essentially this this addressable market is essentially limitless for any company we currently have. Um, it effectively means you you can grow into it basically infinite.

[00:35:15]Once you run out of the addressable market, you have other there's other things you can worry about.

[00:35:18]>> I mean, is that significant to put in?

[00:35:20]>> Yeah, it is significant. I do think it's interesting that they excluded China and Russia from their global estimates. It's I understand why they do that, but I think it's interesting that they decided to specifically say that here, >> right? Cuz like we know that they they they can't do that with China, right?

[00:35:36]Like there's laws against it. But it is interesting they they decided to do it.

[00:35:39]I wonder if they're saying that they're saying it because when if you're an investor and you look at this, you're really concerned about this total addressable market because then you know your top upside, right? But what they're saying here is that essentially we're excluding China and Russia and those could become addressable later on is how I take it. So in other words, it's like we're us excluding it makes it means that the numbers actually are worse here than they actually are in reality.

[00:36:02]>> They're being more conservative than they >> and if those markets open up that would be bullish for SpaceX. They buried the lead. This is what matters is these financials and that is what everybody is going to be looking for essentially.

[00:36:17]>> Wait, so this is not $4,694.

[00:36:22]>> Yeah. Right.

[00:36:22]>> What is it?

[00:36:23]>> This is4 billion.

[00:36:24]>> Yeah.

[00:36:26]>> I'm so glad that I waited to read these numbers.

[00:36:28]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:36:30]>> I mean, I knew that there was something off, but I couldn't figure it out. I'm like, there's no way. Like one of them said like cash on hand and it was like $5,000 or something and I was like >> what the hell?

[00:36:44]>> Yeah.

[00:36:44]>> All right.

[00:36:45]>> Um Okay. So at least the interesting thing when it comes to these things is that um uh okay so the first thing is yeah you can see in millions right so everything is multiplied by a million. Um and so a few things I think are interesting. One they don't have to do this but you do see it sometimes when companies IPO. Um, SpaceX has been around for a long time, but they're not including anything that's later than three years ago. So, they aren't giving us any historical information beyond that.

[00:37:11]>> They had to >> uh they I don't they may have to, I think, when they do, but they aren't they aren't willingly disclosing here. I don't think they're doing anything wrong. They're allowed to do this, but if they wanted to, they could have released five extra years, though. So, or they could have released since they ever were inception, right? So, so they could have done anything, but they decided not to. So, and who knows why that is and well, I do kind of know why, but my guess is that they don't think it's beneficial to their evaluation to show anything beyond these. And my general opinion if I was thinking about investing in them is that it probably is inconsequential like every they're what has happened here in these last three years is really what you're buying into a very good revenue growth but very small amount of revenue for a company that's wanting to trade at 1.7 trillion.

[00:38:02]Um that's a tiny amount of revenue right like like that. Uh I don't know how to how to overstate that. Uh there's this is if this was an oil company who are posting these numbers, this thing wouldn't be trading at more than like $80 billion. Okay? And so, but the market doesn't know how to price this yet. And I'm I'm not I'm not trying to be bearish on on SpaceX. It's possible all these numbers make sense. So, the valuation makes sense, but it is worth noting that usually when you see a company who's trying to list at such a high price, you would see numbers that are larger. Now, these growth rates are there. This is a good revenue growth rate. Um uh it's I mean it's very fast.

[00:38:40]And then you would go okay if this is these are the months ending. So this would basically be a Q1. Okay. So let's say this would be uh this would be around like a little over $18 billion they're going to make this year if every quarter for the next three quarters was the same as the first quarter. So what my impression at least from these numbers is that that means they have rapidly decelerated their growth and revenue. In other words, they're almost showing they're showing almost no growth. And now what is probably true is that there's seasonality to it. And most companies report weak Q1s relative to Q4s, but a lot of that is like Christmas season, marketing budgets are really high during Q4. There's a bunch of reasons for that. I don't know what the seasonality of space companies is. And so we'll see if that happens. Now, if this is true that this will be just you multiply this by four to figure out what their revenue is for 2026, it means your company it's not it's not really growing, right? Um I mean it's somewhat growing, but when you're looking at these evaluations, you're looking for like 50% revenue growth. You're which is what they were achieving, right? I mean these were really high. So that's kind of interesting. Um and it's interesting that they wouldn't report any quarterly numbers to make that impression in my head different than what it is. And uh I don't know why, right? Um so now we're in our cash flow. So cash flow. So you have your income statement which is going to tell you like those difference between operations and whatever. Your cash flow is going to tell you like what your actual cash is doing, right? And um and so uh where is their cash going? And um this is it's at least I mean it's interesting, right? Because uh okay.

[00:40:20]Yeah. because you're going to have your operating activities and then you're going to have your investing activities which is where like your capex is going to go. And it's interesting with this one because um they're reporting $16 billion was spent in the first quarter and yeah in the first quarter of this year they spent $16 billion on investing activities and then um 2025 they spent 19 total. So we're almost in the first quart. possible because we're now in we're now almost at June. They've already spent last year's total amount on investing activities. That might that's that's probably not related so much to Starship. It's probably more related to AI is my guess. That's not an outrageous number, but it is a pretty large number for how um it's an it's a it is it's a large number for how kind of small this company is in revenue. And okay, so now like because I'm trying to think here, right? Okay, so this is interesting. They they they space connectivity AI, right? Again, they're breaking them out in their segments and um uh capital expenditures.

[00:41:23]Yeah. Okay. So, now they're breaking out and they're showing this is right. They a lot of that money is going into the AI category. It's not actually going into these. In fact, space is their least investment heavy segment of their entire business, which is kind of funny for SpaceX. Um I get connectivity is also space, whatever, but okay. Now, here's um here's the balance sheet, right? So this is going to tell you what they own on a on a date. So like an income statement will say from this date to this date. Cash flow will say from this date to this date. A balance sheet is a picture. It's just a picture in time.

[00:41:54]And so now we're seeing what this picture is right now. And we are seeing um cash and cash equivalents is essentially everything that could be liquidated and turned into something that can be that is cash equivalent within less than a year. Okay. And then you have like total assets, right? And you have like uh uh property plant equipment. So of course Starbase would be listed in here, right? Money and bank account would be listed in in the in the 15 number. Okay. So what's interesting about these numbers? That's a lot of debt. That's $60 billion in debt. And uh their total and and you can look at this is actually really Yeah. So this is this tells it, right? I had this question, right? Because Elon Musk was saying they're cash flow positive. Looking at their cash flow statement, that's very generous to say they're cash flow positive. maybe in their operating activities are cash flow positive. And if you go to the cash flow statement, you'll see that a lot of their cash is actually coming from financing activities, which could just be loans, right? Like so, you know, it's not real, it's not like real earnings cash. Um, but what's interesting about that is you can just kind of use you can just kind of think about this a little bit.

[00:43:01]>> If they're total current liabilities, which are all liabilities they have to pay in under a year, right? Right? So, these are all going to come due in less than 12 months is $24 billion. And if their cash is only $15 billion that they can liquidate within less than a 12-month period of time, it means that this company does not have enough cash to meet their liabilities right now. And so, why are they IPOing? Because they need the cash. And then you can look at their cash flow statements, right? And like you know again net cash from financing activities isn't real but um the total of so like the total of these which is going to be a negative they're they're currently have negative cash. So when you look at a number like this and then you see their total current liabilities you go this company has to figure out a ra way to raise money or else they're going to go bankrupt essentially right now. Now, they could do other things like they could sell Starbase under here, but they don't want to sell Starbase. That's going to be who who the hell is going to buy it, right?

[00:43:59]Like those are really hard assets to sell. And so, um, so anyways, that answers my question. I know why they're IPOing. It's because their cash flow positive wasn't is very generous to say they're cash flow positive and because they're going to run out of cash within like they need now they don't need to IPO though because you can get very large loans from from banks in order to make up some of this shortfall and a lot of people would loan money to them but um they're going to need to they probably want to raise an enormous amount of money here and particularly with the whole Terraab thing that they're doing with Tesla as like their little whatever joint venture thing. It's my understanding. I feel confident it of what they're trying to do there is one of the most capital intensive things that is that humanity does. And so I think they're going to want an enormous amount of cash out of this one. People are saying they're trying to raise 40. Well, if it's true that 30 is reserved for retail, this this company's be raising hundreds of billions of dollars. Um, and looking at the numbers is it's probably a good thing particularly because it seems like they want to increase their capital moving forward. So, this is something that they don't have to list, but they're deciding to. Mass to orbit is a metric. Launches. This is a raw number launch that they're now listing here, right? Um, they don't have to list these, but they want to list them. And, and I I say this is really important because like like we didn't know when when when like a good like tech companies is a good example of that, but like like there's other things too like car companies. We didn't know how to value car companies. We just didn't understand it. We don't And like it took us a long time to understand. Well, if you put a a seven-year warranty on an engine, what does that actually mean for a company? How do you do does that mean you have to list every single car that you sell as a liability because you possibly might have to recall it? We just didn't know these things. And it took the market a long time to figure it out. And that's my general expectation of what we're going to see in this IPO is we're going to see the market really scratch its head for a long time trying to figure out how do you how do you value space companies like this and like I said billion dollar question. I have no idea. Um but it's interesting they're taking their shot, right? They're saying mass orbit launches. These are things that might turn into standards or these are things they're going to remove from what they're reporting later on because they're not they're going to think it's not worth it, you know? um uh other so like uh let's say meta a meta did this right so you had Facebook was Facebook then they bought Instagram then they had threads then they um then they had WhatsApp right and they did all these acquisitions at a certain point what they said was they said we don't want to report all of our our numbers to uh separate we want to combine them all so now we have a little bit we we have a less clarity on what Meta is doing but and they still break them out every like a little bit but they they aren't giving us the the granular clarity on everything like like they used to. And so now what they're doing is they're basketing most of their users and just saying these are meta users coming from some of our platforms and and we we don't have as good clarity on it as we used to. Uh okay so this is like this would this is this is weird. Um average revenue per user for Starlink is decreasing. it's becoming less valuable every and this is this is not going to be inflation adjusted either. So it's like it's like doubly bad particularly if it's international. So um or it's if it constant currency exchange back to America that's probably better but like United States doesn't necessarily have high inflation relative to other countries. Okay. So, uh, interesting, right? Because, um, I I didn't know I didn't know is Starlink going to become more valuable or not. And it looks like Starlink there's they're if they could charge more for it, they would charge more for it. And it doesn't it looks like currently they're lowering price.

[00:47:48]Now, you could say this is a gain users, but I'm not so sure. That's interesting.

[00:47:54]And so, the problem is, let's say you're running a finance thing and you're trying to go, well, like, how do I value this company? You say, well, look at these growth. I this is a damn near 100% growth rate for three years in a row. Um >> but the numbers going down per user, >> right? Exactly. And so this is the this is like the mathematical equation you would run. If our users go up here, when is it going to plateau and if the revenue is doing this per user, what is that actually turn out to be? And what's the like total profit pool that exists within their Starlink segment? And um you know there's nothing to say other than than you don't want to see this number going down. And so certain companies like Facebook, their numbers never go down, right? I mean every time their their average revenue per user increases almost every single year for the last, you know, 10 years. And so SpaceX certainly doesn't want to see this, but like I said, maybe they're trying to gain more people to sign up, but I kind of doubt it. I doubt it. So not necessarily good numbers for them there. Give me your TLDDR of is this like kind of I not a nothing burger, but like is this like crazy groundbreaking?

[00:49:00]Finally getting our hands on it or is it just interesting and you know, we'll see how it goes.

[00:49:04]>> Uh this isn't going to be the final thing they release. Uh god, what are there other forms to release that are going to give more clarity into what I'm interested in which is going to be the numbers about the financial numbers, right? And um so those are going to happen later on. They're going to have to adjust all their numbers and put in all the placeholders too once they once they basically amend this document.

[00:49:25]Those are going to be interesting to see. Um, and so so far what I'm seeing though is is we're getting a lot of fluff, right? We're getting a lot of words like these. They're just so I mean they're kind of interesting, but if you already know SpaceX, you kind of already know what they're looking at, what they're doing, right? I mean Elon Musk talks a lot. And so this is a kind of a a soft this is a a they aren't giving any more financial numbers than I thought they would or they aren't giving any more than like it feels like they have to. And uh so it's usually usually you show the part that you want to flex the most, right? And so um they are talking about their missions and their total addressable market and what is going to happen like what they're dreaming of doing but they aren't saying so much as far as their financial numbers because their financial numbers are pretty bad and it's not a huge deal.

[00:50:20]Everybody knows it's going no one thinks that this is a profit generating m just go to a Starship launch and you go wow that thing has to cost an enormous amount of money and they're just burning it every time. It's not actually creating any profit yet. So, everybody understands the game that's being played here. Um, but the numbers, you know, it answers a few questions for me. One is why are they IPOing? They are certainly IPOing to raise a lot of capital. Um, they also, you know, another thing that I didn't I didn't know exactly how how deep they would dive into it is the AI segment. They are very clearly positioning themselves as an AI company and not just an AI company because a lot of topic that Elon Musk has done has been around the what you consider like picks and shovels, right? what are the things that uh you need as far as hardware to actually get AI to work.

[00:51:04]He's talked about that a lot with like, okay, these satellites and blah blah blah, right? Okay, these data centers in space. But this talks a lot more about monthly active users, right? They've integrated XAI into this company and that's going to be like the software side of it and like owning the actual software like let's say technical stack.

[00:51:23]And I didn't I didn't know if they were going to really disclose that much, but it's very clear. And you know, when you think about SpaceX, they are thinking at least they're presenting it that way.

[00:51:31]And it probably is true that that's how they think about their company, right?

[00:51:34]They're thinking about the space segment, their connectivity segment, and which would be like your telecoms and then your AI segment. And it's an interesting way to think about it. The more I sit with it, the more sense it makes to me that that is the best way to do it. it. These companies are so complicated when you look at the grand scale of them that you kind of have to compartmentalize it. And that's a pretty logical way to do it. But it's interesting how much priority they've given to AI. It's also interesting to look at where their cash is going and where they're investing money and how much of it is um you know, if you think that SpaceX is primarily investing money in their space department, it's wrong, right? We learned that SpaceX is primarily putting their cash into AI right now. And I get it, those kind of go together, but it's quite significant what they're doing. And for sure, at least when you look at their deal with Anthropic and with what you can do, the path to profitability and AI is particularly in Pix and Shovel AI is way way more clear than it is on how is how are you actually going to monetize the space department in this fully. Um, I thought it was really interesting that they they decided to disclose crew flights because that's one of the ones I think people had the biggest question on is how are you ever going to make any money on crew flights? And and I I still don't know, but it's interesting they would list it and very early on in this too. Like they are measuring that as a metric and they want people to know that they're human capable right now, right?

[00:52:54]Like they're telling this to Wall Street. Most the people who are going to be looking into this with the big money who are going into it will know significantly less than the average viewer um from your channel, but they will spend and they probably have been actually for the last month or so. They will spend an enormous amount of people like >> people like Maril Lynch and Goldman Sachs will hire a team just to figure out a company like this. Particularly a company with a balance sheet that is probably that is would be so hard to figure out. out. It could be your full-time job and the company changes fast enough to where you would need help. You would never be able to quite figure out what the company's doing. And you talk about this when you go to Star Starbase. Starbase is always changing, right? So, how do you even know what's going on in their balance sheet? And you know, the answer is that SpaceX would even have trouble keeping up with it to a certain extent. Um, and uh let me see anything else on this one. Oh, and then I guess of course the big thing to mention on this one is uh we did get a confirmation of how they're doing their shares, right? So, we have our A and our Bclass. And this does mean that the way that this is structured, Elon Musk controls this company, locks, stock barrel. There is nobody who has any say over this company other than Mr. Musk.

[00:54:00]And um uh and you know, I would say that too as far as Mr. Musk being brought up, he's mentioned more here on this filing than most other filings I see. Usually kind of CEOs are considered replaceable.

[00:54:13]Elon Musk is obviously he has a name, he has a brand, he's probably the most famous CEO in the world right now. So they're really advertising him and this is his company. If you don't trust who I must to run this thing, don't buy it.

[00:54:24]And there is no hostile takeover that this company's immune to hostile takeovers, right? Like doesn't matter how much money you have, you can buy every single share that's traded and you will not actually be able to to fire Elon Musk. And if I were CEO, that's exactly what I would do. And you know what I would say to people who had a problem with it is I say, don't buy it.

[00:54:43]Then you know, pound sand. And so I totally get it, but it is kind of a this is a must company locktock barrel more than I think almost any of his other companies. And the the other thing is that I guess when I I see people's reaction to this as this has been rumored for a while. Um I think that people aren't aware of the fact that this is not necessarily that uncommon to have these different classes of shares.

[00:55:05]And um but it does hold at least a a little bit of risk. I just don't think the risk premium is all that high. Um, but yes, this is this is Elon Musk company. The other thing too that I was reading downstairs that I don't see in here, it's going to be a such a long document. Um, is going to be the fact that this is actually going to be a dual traded company. So, they're going to list it on two different exchanges. They're listing on NASDAQ and they're listing it on the Texas Texas na Texas NASDAQ. Um, uh, you see this happen with companies sometimes, but it's a weird choice cuz I don't know if I've ever seen a company do Texas, te Texas NASDAQ. Texas has been trying to kind of build their bit of a Wall Street and I'm assuming with how much money and how much essentially Abbott is really allowing Musk to expand quickly in Texas. Um, Elon Musk is making this a Texas company. um you know, he's obviously trying to get everything out of Delaware after they screwed him over. And so, um but you know, if you have something like like if you want to create a a Wall Street in your state, you need big companies like this to do it cuz no one cares about the small little company penny stocks that trade on it. And so, it's interesting he's dual listing in Texas. And I'm assuming that that gets him some political favors in Texas, which I'm sure he has a lot of good grace on. And uh it's just interesting. You usually don't see that. Usually a US company will list will say we want to be listed, you know, NASDAQ's good enough, right?

[00:56:34]Well, what's the point of doing multiple? And um it's interesting you would do that. I need to think about it more and do more research. I actually haven't heard too much about like the Texas NASDAQ, but it's interesting doing a dual listing. And so you'll be able to buy this on two different exchanges. And um I don't know what the argument is for doing that, but I'd have to look into it. So, we will make another video if you would like more details because there's definitely more to go through. But that is um a better update than what I gave in the live stream earlier. Uh because I don't really understand this stuff quite as much here as my husband. So, thank you for being in the video. And uh we have an exciting month. We could deliver our baby boy next month and also see SpaceX IPO. So, June's going to be nuts.

[00:57:21]>> Yeah. Thank you,