BITCOIN: ANALYZING ALL THE FINAL SELLOFFS

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:01]Hey, what's going on everybody? It's your boy Jordan Carmona back with another update video today and in today's video we're going to talk about when is the Bitcoin drop that we're expecting into the cycle bottom most likely to happen. All right, so if you enjoyed today's video, make sure you smack the subscribe button and hit the like button before you go, but let let's jump on in. So, um today's video is going to be looking at more so time frames rather than price. And and I said this many many times throughout the this crypto cycle is um when it comes to crypto uh knowing where the bottom price is going to be uh and the top price is going to be is almost impossible, right? Some people will guess it sometimes and then get it wrong sometimes, but it's more so guessing price is impossible and more so what's important to catch the meat of the move in crypto is um getting time right, right? Getting time frames right, following the four-year cycle, following the three up one down typical crypto cycle.

[00:01:05]And knowing when generally uh moves happen, all right? So, what I want to look at today is um where I think we are relative in the cycle and then when that kind of final move to the low um how long that kind of took from the typical four-year cycle, right? So, um we know that right now Bitcoin topped this cycle on the week of October 6th, right? So, if we're going to follow the typical four-year cycle as we know uh Bitcoin typically goes down 52 weeks from the cycle high, okay? Whether it was 2021 from the cycle high to the cycle low, uh we went down for 52 weeks before hitting the bottom, uh whether it was over here back in 2017 or from the cycle high to the cycle low, we went down for 52 weeks, right? Um so, if we were to expect the same thing to happen and, you know, maybe it doesn't happen this time, but I think it's more likely that it does and it's makes more sense to assume it is going to happen rather than it's not going to happen, is Bitcoin goes down for 52 weeks again, which would put us, once again, in that first week of October. And I'm going to mark that off here, the first week of October of 2026, okay? And you can see, uh relatively speaking, that we're almost at that time frame, right?

[00:02:21]We're coming up on June, uh really only have about 4 to 5 months left until we hit that sort of end of 2026, when we think the typical low for Bitcoin's going to be. But, um what I want to do after marking that off is how long before the typical 52-week bear market, how long did it take um to get that final flush to the low? So, if you look at where we are now, right?

[00:02:47]We've gotten a little bit of a relief rally back to the upside, um I want to kind of just mark off that low that we put in in February, okay? Now, my expectation is that low will get taken out at some point before October, right? So, at some point before the Bitcoin price hits this October line, I'm expecting that price is going to come deeper into below here, right?

[00:03:09]So, let's look at the previous cycles.

[00:03:12]So, right over here back in 2022, we put in a low in the middle of June, okay?

[00:03:18]And we really didn't take that out until, funny enough, about 1 week before the 52-week bear market signal, okay?

[00:03:29]So, for 52 weeks from the high to the low, we really didn't take that out until the week before. So, is it possible that Bitcoin could just chop in this zone and not take out this low until, literally, the week before the 52-week signal, right? So, could Bitcoin come around and just kind of chop in this zone in here, right? And then take out the low right before there and then come back up. Certainly a possibility based on the 2022 cycle. Now, what I also want to look at is over here back in the 2018 cycle.

[00:04:03]So, you'll notice is Bitcoin had this long sort of chop zone period here. And you guys can see that we also put in a low in the middle of June in 2018, right? So, we're going to mark off the June 2018 low.

[00:04:17]And you guys can see that how long did it take before the 52-week signal? So, we know that we topped in uh December 11th, 2017.

[00:04:27]Uh December 10th, 2018, it took us 1 2 3 uh it really was 4 weeks before. 4 weeks, right? Before we hit the 52-week signal is actually when we broke that final low and then we hit the low. So, really in the last two cycles, we really didn't get that final flush below the June low until 4 weeks before the 52-week cycle um or the or 1 week before the 52-week cycle, right? So, just looking at the previous two cycles, right? We would expect that some type of flush out would happen, obviously, because it's the it it would be the bear market low, so you're expecting a flush out. Uh it really doesn't start until right before that 52-week signal. What I think is also interesting with this is what you'll notice in the last two cycles, we put in a major low in June, right? So, June 2022, right? We had a major low on June 13th of 2022 before then taking it out. And then we also put in a major low right here in June 2018 before taking taking it out. So, right now it's May 31st.

[00:05:38]What I think could happen here, right?

[00:05:40]And this is obviously just speculation on the previous two cycles, is could Bitcoin over the next two to three weeks come down and actually set a new low.

[00:05:51]Okay? Set a new low before then getting another relief rally up before then putting in another low right before the cycle ends. That's how the last two cycles have been, right? We put in a major low in June, we get a relief rally, and then we take out that low right before the 52-week signal.

[00:06:09]Could we do the same thing? Right?

[00:06:11]Obviously, we have Bitcoin coming down a little bit right now.

[00:06:14]Could we see Bitcoin in the middle of June again put in another cycle low?

[00:06:20]Right? That's what we did in 2022, and that's what we did in 2018.

[00:06:24]Certainly could be possible. Before then, right before October, putting in another low, right? Probably sometime in September.

[00:06:34]I think that's what makes the most sense based on the 52-week cycle. Now, there's one more cycle I want to look at to see if we can get any more confluence with this. Let's go back and look at the 20 15 or 2014-2015 cycle. Okay?

[00:06:49]So, what did we do there?

[00:06:50]Well, did we put in in June, if we find June, in this cycle, we actually put in a high in June. Okay? So, [laughter] right? Sort of in that middle of June period, we actually put in a high and then came down. Okay? So, in that cycle, it's a little bit different. We actually put in a swing high and then we came down and we put in a a swing low in September. And then we came back down and we sort of worked our way down. Th- That I don't think is very likely because once again, this cycle was took us 59 weeks to find a low, okay? But, it topped in December. So, it's a little bit different than the October period.

[00:07:33]So, the time frames might be slightly different, right? But, um again, though this cycle is slightly different, when what when did we really take out that final swing low?

[00:07:46]It happens quick. That final swing low happens very very quickly for Bitcoin.

[00:07:50]So, we chopped around from September to December, right? We're talking about 3 months of chop. We didn't take out that final October low until 1 2 3 weeks before. So, once again, that final low that ends up coming for Bitcoin most cycles really doesn't come in until early right before 52 weeks.

[00:08:12]So, what I'm expecting is this final drop for Bitcoin whether we come down first and then we come back up and then we come back down again and swing it and almost make like a Wyckoff accumulation or we kind of just maybe we do this.

[00:08:28]We chop around take it out right at the end and then boom. Whether whatever happens here, I'm expecting that final drop to come in right before that 52-week low, okay?

[00:08:42]And it sets up a bunch of different scenarios, right? It really leaves us scratching our head in how is this bottom going to look? And that's what I've said on my channel is I've been very confident in Bitcoin continuing lower, but how is the bottom process actually going to play out? I have no clue. It could be something like this like a Wyckoff accumulation. It could be that Bitcoin actually ends up squeezing a little bit higher here before coming back down in maybe, you know, sort of August and September into October.

[00:09:11]Who knows, right? And and that that's that's the power of crypto and that's why people so many people get confused is the 52-week that really the 4-year cycle tends to be the same every single time, yet the topping patterns, whether it's sort of a parabola topping pattern or it's, you know, a Wyckoff distribution right? Every top and bottom tends to play out relatively the exact same, right? Um or or every top and bottom tends to play out relatively different, though, right? The the four-year cycle tends to play out basically the same every single time, right? So, um where are we right now? I I I think right now, when we kind of just look at where we are in the four-year typical four-year cycle, I think we're somewhere in that, you know, 2/3 of the way through it. I do think there's going to be a final flush out in sort of September into the beginning of October, but what happens in between September and the beginning of October could take many different shapes and patterns and forms and continue to throw everybody off the wagon, okay?

[00:10:19]Everybody off the wagon. Now, what we talked about in last video is Bitcoin to form some type of of of weekly uh weekly bullish divergence. And I still think that makes the most sense, right?

[00:10:32]As, you know, every single cycle and every single bear market, we haven't seen Bitcoin bottom until we actually form some type of bullish divergence, whether it's on the weekly time frame or the uh daily time frame, okay? And we don't have that yet, right?

[00:10:46]We don't have that yet. So, what I'm looking for, once again, is at some point before October, we're going to see a final low put in for Bitcoin, but it's actually going to be a higher low on the RSI.

[00:10:57]Okay? Just like we saw over here in 2022, we made a lower low in price, but a higher low on the RSI. And actually, just like we saw back over here in 2015, where we put a lower low on price and a higher low on the RSI. We didn't see that on the weekly time frame back over here in the 2018 low, but if we switched over to the daily, we did have, if we can zoom back in on the 2022 cycle, when we actually put in this low over here in 2022, we had lower lows on price and higher lows on the RSI. And we have not seen that, once again, yet in this cycle. We have no bullish divergences on any time frame, uh the daily or the weekly. So, I do think what we need to see is some type of bullish divergence form, and I think that's going to form on the weekly time frame here. Once again, when does it happen?

[00:11:47]I think probably, once again, that final low doesn't get put in probably for a few months.

[00:11:53]What happens in between there?

[00:11:55]We could see Bitcoin actually push up higher here. We could see uh Bitcoin continue to just kind of chop up, right? Uh we could see Bitcoin actually flush down here, come back up again, and then come back down again in October. Many, many different shapes and forms could happen here. Um but what I really think this is is uh Bitcoin forming its bottoming process. And though I do think Bitcoin's going to end up going lower before October, I don't think it's going to be one of those things where you should be kicking and screaming and selling your portfolio uh at this point. It's more so just preparing for the sentiment to be extremely bad when Bitcoin gets, you know, wherever it is in this zone, okay? So, uh it's been your boy Jordan Cameron, that's the update video today.

[00:12:42]I think today a really interesting video to kind of look at when Bitcoin's seen those final flushes, how fast those final flushes tend to happen. They tend to only take about 1 to 4 weeks um at the end of the cycle. And uh what kind of what happens in between now and October is obviously a big mystery um for all of us, uh but we're all going to be here for it, and we're all going to be here on the channel kind of looking to see what Bitcoin does. But really preparing um for this next 4-year cycle to come uh starting in in in in 2027. All right?

[00:13:13]So, it's been your boy Jordan Cameron, catch you guys in the next video. Like if you haven't subscribed to the channel to join the party, and catch you guys in the next one.

[00:13:21]Peace.