هل أصبحت أسعار النفط على وشك الانهيار مع اقتراب اتفاق واشنطن وطهران؟ - صباح الشرق

Added: 2026-05-27

[00:00:01]We're taking a look at last week's oil market closes, which were fraught with the volatility we've seen throughout the week. After a volatile session on Friday, Brent crude closed higher, but below $105 a barrel, at $103.50 a barrel, up about [music] percent.

[00:00:22]Meanwhile, Texas Intermediate crude closed at around $96 a barrel, up about [music] percent.

[00:00:36]Joining us from Singapore to discuss the oil markets is Laurent Lecko, founder of The Macro Butler.

[00:00:44]Welcome back, Laurent, to Morning in the East.

[00:00:47]Laurent, it seems that over the past two days there has been some optimism and positivity in the rhetoric, and according to the US president, an agreement between the United States and Iran is close, which includes opening the Strait of Hormuz. In your opinion, how might we see oil prices react to such news at tomorrow's opening?

[00:01:15]Good morning, Samia. I'm happy to be with you on the program again. Since April, we've been told that a deal is imminent, and therefore, before the deal stalls, I will remain cautious about the possibility of reaching an agreement. In the next 24 to 48 hours, if a deal is reached, we will likely see a decline in oil prices. However, as I have said several times on your programs, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow, we will need three to six months for oil supply chains to return to normal.

[00:02:04]This means higher oil prices for a longer period. In fact, if we look at the oil price curve in the last month, we saw fluctuations of four to five dollars per futures contract until the end of the year. This means that the markets are gradually factoring in that even if a peace agreement is reached, the impact on the physical oil market will persist for several months.

[00:02:39]Indeed, Laurent, we have discussed this before, and the current situation is not only about the reopening of the strait but also about the timing and timeframe for the return of activity to its previous state. During the closure, inventories were largely what prevented the market from slipping into a worse situation. Are inventories still capable of saving the market until the situation returns to normal or until the strait is fully reopened? The movement and complete confidence in the Strait of Hormuz since the end of February has led to all countries worldwide depleting their strategic reserves. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more these stockpiles will decline.

[00:03:43]As I mentioned last week in an interview, JPMorgan conducted calculations and concluded that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed by September, global stockpiles will have reached levels that threaten the entire oil sector. Therefore, if we are facing a few weeks before oil is completely depleted, and if there is no solution and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened in the short term, oil prices will rise significantly.

[00:04:23]I personally expect oil prices to reach even higher levels than what we saw in the last few days. Regarding the possibility of a peaceful resolution to the conflict, I believe this story might end, and we could see Brent crude or even West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $115 by the beginning of next month.

[00:04:55]Do you think these prices, or these risks, are not yet priced into the markets? And that the current oil price levels are likely to rise further after the recent decline? Last week, on Thursday and Friday during US trading hours, this might be related to the fact that many investors were waiting for the announcement of a peace deal over the weekend.

[00:05:31]But as I said, even if a peace deal is reached tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to its pre-February state, I think the current prices don't reflect the fact that depleted stockpiles need to be replenished and that oil supply chains will remain vulnerable to disruption for at least three to six months.

[00:06:04]This means that the decline we've seen in prices seems limited, in my view, and the risks still point to the possibility of prices rising.

[00:06:17]With these high prices and the lack of clarity in the near term, attention is turning, especially to Asian countries, most notably India.

[00:06:27]We saw them raise fuel prices for the third time in a week, and they're continuing to do so. Are we starting to see the difficulties related to high oil prices, and is this tightening of the noose beginning to appear more strongly in Asian countries?

[00:06:51]There's a destruction of demand, and we've seen this happening in recent weeks, and it will continue. But as I've always said, the matter is not It's not about destroying demand, but rather about a supply problem.

[00:07:04]Furthermore, to add to my previous answer, even if the situation returns to normal in the future, many Asian countries, in particular, will likely want to increase their strategic reserves. This means we will see higher demand, as instead of having reserves sufficient for 60 or 90 days, many countries will opt for 120, 180, or even 360 days of reserves.

[00:07:39]Consequently, oil prices will be structurally higher, barring, of course, any potential geopolitical impact.

[00:07:49]Thank you very much, founder of MacroButler, for always being with us. I enjoy speaking with you. Thank you.