This Is NOT The Way We Wanted To Begin SUMMER

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]It's a Memorial Day wash out for parts of the nation as the big wet of 2026 continues. I'll show you who's most at risk of seeing flooding as well as severe weather. Plus, a lot of buzz about tropical storm Arthur being just around the corner. We'll take a look down in the tropics as well. Got all of that more coming up in today's video and it starts right now.

[00:00:20]Welcome to the channel, my friends.

[00:00:21]Happy Memorial Day to you. Before we begin the show, I want to take just a second and say if you're an active military member or have served in the past, thank you so much for your service for the sacrifice that you've made being away from your family, maybe even have uh sustained an injury or something like that. But certainly want to thank you for protecting us and making our country safe and free. Thank you for all that you've done for us. Now, with that, they say that Memorial Day is the official start to summer. And if that's the case, then we're going to start officially today by watching much of the nation be under cool and unsettled conditions, particularly up and down the east coast and for parts of the south. It is going to be a cloudy, a dreary day to start summer for parts of the east, particularly even out in the four corners region and working into the Pacific Northwest and other little pockets around the country like central Texas and up here into the plains as well. But you can easily pick out our frontal boundary. A batch of energy working through the northeast and another batch of energy coming out of the Gulf of Cold Rain down here. You can see that coming into Mississippi enhancing rainfall there. Little pocket of spin out here and another low coming into the Pacific Northwest. But uh it is a cloudy day for a lot of the nation.

[00:01:34]This is the surface map and here is our frontal zone. You can see that easily here depicted from Pennsylvania all the way down into central Texas out ahead of that. It's where we find moisture and copious moisture at that with a flooding threat down in parts of the deep south.

[00:01:49]Look at this little boundary here. You see this? This is a uh sort of an inverted frontal zone. It is indicative of wedging. We've seen wedging. We saw cooler temperatures, particularly western North Carolina, western South Carolina, back up into Virginia yesterday with a little bit less rainfall because this wedge created sort of a stable environment out to the east of that. Little little warmer, but we still haven't seen a ton of rain over here in the eastern sections of the Carolinas as much as we thought we might. And part of that has been because of something that's off this map that I'll show you in just a second. But certainly anywhere you see the um hatched areas could see showers and potentially thunderstorms and maybe some snow. out west as that new energy moves in particularly in the higher elevations out there. Now, this is our energy map.

[00:02:31]I show this from time to time. It's what was the running in the animation earlier. But, uh, where we find brighter colors like here in Texas, brighter colors in the Mississippi, all of these brighter colors kind of coming up out of the southerntherly flow and some brighter colors working through the northeast. Where you see these brighter colors, those are indicative of energy in the mid-level flow. Those enhance the wind shear, enhances lift. When you have a very moist air mass in place and instability, you get showers, thunderstorms, and maybe even severe weather if conditions are right. Got another area of spin out here in the desert southwest working into the four corners and another upper level low that will be coming on shore. Now, one more thing that's important is this big high pressure zone that is out here in the Atlantic. This is trying to nose east.

[00:03:15]You can see the height lines kind of coming around like this. Okay, you see these height lines out here? that is trying to cap the mid levels a little bit and make it a little harder for showers and thunderstorms to form. So, as that pushes in, we've got southwesterly flow pushing back against it. Kind of that corridor between the two is where the best moisture is and the best lift is. And we'll watch and see how far that noses in because that could shut down precipitation particularly in the eastern portions of the southeast. We will watch that try to nose in and kind of get flexed back. But there's energy coming in through the Alabama Mississippi border going to enhance rainfall through the day. Energy working into the northeast, enhancing rainfall up there. There's that spin in the four corners region. And watch this upper level low zoom in to the Pacific Northwest. It hits Oregon, go straight to California as we get into tomorrow afternoon. Easy to see where our frontal boundary is retreating back to the north as ridging builds across the north up here through the middle portion of the week. We'll continue to see from this trough down here in and around Texas and New Mexico and this high-pressure zone out on the coast, rich moisture being transported into the southeast. You can see those height lines and that moisture just continuing to come in at the surface as we see an active flow northerly branch, the jetream bringing in energy across the north and the southern branch bringing energy in across the south. And look at that spin as ridging begins to build up here in Ontario and uh Alberta and over the north central portion of the country.

[00:04:41]This is going to play a big role in helping to send a high pressure down into um parts of the Ohio Valley and upper southeast. It's going to come in like this later in the week and end the rain at least for a portion of the east coast. That'll happen as we get toward next week. You can kind of see that uh boundary set up there and that other uh low pressure will begin to go up into Canada, reinforce this ridge. It's going to get hot in the plains as a result of all of this, too. But an active active pattern is underway. We'll see showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the east today through the afternoon.

[00:05:15]Look at what happens as we get on in toward midday. Lots of rain down here in the Delta region up into the lower Mississippi Valley. Mississippi itself into Alabama. You see some flooding with several inches of rain particularly across the southern portion of the area.

[00:05:29]There's our front acting as a focus for showers and thunderstorms Virginia up into the DC metro area into the Delm Marva. More rain in the four corners as that spin continues there. And again, eventually that low pressure works into the Pacific Northwest providing you all with some rain north of the country dries out and we continue through Tuesday and the overnight hours tonight into the morning hours tomorrow. going to find plenty of rain working in the Ohio Valley back into the southeast as well. High pressure nosing in trying to cut us off here in Florida and eastern sections of the southeast. And again, western sections up through the Tennessee Valley will light up again tomorrow afternoon and evening as we heat up the atmosphere. Look what happens out in Texas. Wave of energy moving in. Part of that spin in the four corners region is broken off heading into Texas could produce a corridor of showers and thunderstorms uh Tuesday evening into Wednesday overnight and send an MCS through Texas enhancing severe weather out there and providing more heavy rain as we get on in toward Wednesday afternoon and evening particularly over here in the east around Corpus Christie and Galveston Houston place where we've had uh a lot of rain already. So, watch out for more rain coming in there and then more rain in the Pacific Northwest as we get into Wednesday as well. Looking at the European Ensemble, the GFS ensemble generally agrees with this over the next 5 days. A corridor of very heavy rain from uh eastern Louisiana through Georgia into Tennessee. All of Tennessee, parts of Kentucky, West Virginia, western North Carolina, Western Virginia, anywhere in here could see as much as two to three inches of rain, particularly across the south.

[00:07:02]This is where the flooding concerns the highest. From um Baton Rouge over to New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, and places like that down in toward the deep south portion of around the Gulf Coast could see as much as six more inches of rain when all is said and done. And again, this rain is going to be convective in nature. All right, so we're going to have some halves and some have knots pretty close to each other. So, uh, this is the general footprint from Oklahoma and Texas back in toward the, uh, parts of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic up here in Maine. You guys are going to pick up rain today, and that's going to be the bulk of it, but you could drop an inch or a little bit more than that. And then over here also in the uh, northwest areas from Oregon, Northern California, Nevada, back into the upper portions of Idaho, and western Montana could see as much as a half an inch to an inch and a half of rain when all is said and done up there. flow pattern over the next several days. We're going to go ahead and start this next weekend uh early on Friday. Big ridge here in central Canada around uh Alberta and then another ridge center forming in Hudson Bay. Low anomaly off of Nova Scotia and uh Newfoundland. Little trough continues in the deep south. This will continue to provide unsettled weather across the Gulf Coast states and troughing working into the uh four corners region as well.

[00:08:19]All of that will continue as we continue to see warm temperatures across the north build in, especially over time.

[00:08:27]This ridge is going nowhere in Canada.

[00:08:29]It's going to act as a block, continue to send northerly flow down at least through parts of the northeast and potentially getting down into parts of the upper southeast. So, we've got sort of an omega block like this. See how this kind of looks like an omega shape?

[00:08:42]I'm terrible at drawing, but that's what it looks like. And that's a pretty stable pattern. It's going to set in for a time and that ridge will finally kind of break down and translate back to the west. And as that happens, couple of things you need to know. Going to be warm out west, continuing to see troughing across the south and up and down the eastern seabboard, keeping us cooler than normal out there temperature- wise. But it also shuts down the severe weather when we don't have a big southerntherly transport out west. We don't have energy and we don't have moisture. We have a big ridge up here. We kind of keep all of that locked down and lid on the severe weather threat for the most part. And that's the way it looks as we head on out in the next uh portion of the forecast period, which takes us all the way out to two weeks. So, we could see a big ridge kind of establish itself, western portion of the country, center portion of the country, somewhere in there as we get on out there. And what that would mean is cooler temperatures for a lot of the south and over into the uh eastern seabboard with time early on in the forecast period. Maybe toward next weekend, we're looking at cool temperatures across the uh west. But warmth up in the northern plains, northern Rockies, that will continue.

[00:09:46]And that will continue to build. We get on out into next Sunday and next Monday, continuing to see cooler than average temperatures from Texas up through Maine into the Ohio Valley with warmth building out west across the northern plains. That is indicative of the flow pattern that we saw set up. And over time, the uh model wants to sort of average out the pattern. But uh in the long and short of it is warmer than normal across the north looks most likely and a little bit cooler than normal across the south and the east with time with potential unsettled weather predict particularly the farther south you go. As a matter of fact, the uh climate prediction center looking at the biggest signal for above normal over the northern plains and back to the west and below normal from Texas all the way up to Maine through the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes. Hawaii, you're above Alaska, you are below. As far as precipitation goes, Alaska and Hawaii both above normal. Biggest signal back from the four quarters region. In terms of uh precipitation anomalies through the Tennessee Valley and parts of the southeast, particularly the lower sections of the southeast, this is the 6 to 10 day period. And that takes us on into uh June the 3rd. All right, below normal across the Great Lakes and below normal out west eventually once we get that low pressure to come on in over the next couple of days. All right, so that's your forecast terms of the weather. We'll take a look at severe weather and tropics coming up next.

[00:11:10]Fortunately, we don't have a lot of severe weather, at least on an organized basis, over the next several days, which is good news. We'll show you the details on that here in a second. But, uh, if you're new to the channel or haven't done so, hit the subscribe button right down below and join us for the fun and excitement here. Do a daily weather video. Like the content if you like it.

[00:11:27]Most importantly, if there's anything I can be in prayer about prayer about, please put it down in the comments section. Let me know if uh I can support you. Thank you for the prayers and the support here as well. You can also support the channel if you'd like by visiting our store and picking up some cool cold rain gear. And you can be part of the cold rain collective by joining as a channel member and join some of those names on your screens. But in any event, my friends, thank you so much for your support. Now, severe weather, not a big deal today. Hey, look. We've got several little pockets up here in northern Minnesota around International Falls from Sou Falls back to Makook uh over here in parts of eastern um well all of the stove pipe of Idaho and western Montana around Missoula down here and uh around El Paso, Texas and then again Mobile and Gulfport places like that over into the eastern sections of the Florida panhandle. These are where the little pockets of energy that we looked at before uh exist. That is what is going on today. But uh really very isolated in nature. Shouldn't see very much again tomorrow with more energy works across the border maybe Missoula, Great Falls, but looking at potential isolated severe weather down in Midland to Fort Stockton. Uh looking at the biggest threat though as uh that part of that spin in the four corners breaks off and produces a little extra shear. We could see a little bit of a tornado threat though not a big big big problem. Maybe a tornado or two. Wind could certainly be an issue as a line gets together, but most prominently we look at a hail threat down here as we have some pretty steep lapse rates. It could see hail on the order of two inches or greater where you see the hatched area, but again, no big organized areas of severe weather looking too likely over the next several days. And I showed you earlier that have a lid kind of on of all of that. In any event, uh so we've got a flood watch up from Georgia, parts of Georgia just around Atlanta back into Alabama. That includes Tallaladega, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Huntsville. So, looking at places uh getting picking up some big rain as that disturbance moves through this afternoon and then around New Orleans and uh Mobile and Gulfport.

[00:13:30]Looking at a flood watch as well over the next 24 hours or so. Red flag warnings and heat advisories could see some hundreds up here in uh eastern Montana. My goodness, that is way too hot for this time of year. red flag warnings out in the west as well with various uh fire weather concerns in these areas. A great uh up here in Detroit and around the Detroit area, not really Detroit, sorry, west of there. I was I misread my own map, but um you know near Cadillac and uh um Wasaw looking at places uh in central Michigan with a uh dense fog advisory. So I'm trying to get out. Hard to get that out today for some reason. But that's all that's going on in the alert section. But as far as tropics, man, we have a lot of people talking about potentially tropical storm Arthur on our hands. Well, one model is showing that that is GFS. And you can see right here on the beginning of the map, not a lot going on in our main development region. We wouldn't expect to see a lot going on out here as well.

[00:14:26]Uh farther south, we're seeing a few tropical waves working into South America, but over here in Hispanola and Cuba, not a lot of uh anything going on except some rain showers. But as we head this on through, we put this into motion and we get into Wednesday, Thursday, just more rain down here in the tropics.

[00:14:42]But look what happens as we get into the weekend. All right, so Saturday morning, starting to see a little bit of an act uh reflection of a low pressure shooting the gap between the Yucin Peninsula and Cuba. That will cross Cuba and get up into southern Florida, enhancing the rain threat there. Very, very weak though. A 102 millib bar is not very strong. All right, so we're not looking at at anything strong. It strengthens a little bit as it gets on up into the Atlantic and gets kind of parallel to the windshar, but not really looking at tons. Makes a beeline for Bermuda if you're looking at the the GFS here and believing that to be the case. But will it become a tropical cyclone? Uh tropical storm Arthur. Hard to say. I I kind of don't think so. The G uh that's the GFS. Here's the European. I'll show you why here in a second. Here's the European. European just continues to send waves off of the uh North American continent down here into South America and parts of Mexico into Central America actually before it gets getting into South America. But look at this European does not have much of a signal at all for any kind of a low pressure down here. So the GFS is sort of on an island with that. So I'm not at all enthusiastic about getting a tropical system in here. And one of the reasons for that is wind shear. Look at this. As we get into Saturday, you've got a bunch of shear where you see these uh this red got these arrows that tells you the direction of the winds, but the reds give you an indication that there's some strong winds blowing uh through a column of the atmosphere. And this is not great for tropical cyclone development. You need whites and kind of blues if you really want to get things going. And you get that for a time and then you get a blank screen and then you get more and more in the way of shear with that frontal zone across the country. This acts as a shield. We're not going to see any tropical cyclones impact the United States for sure. So, all this would be would be a name storm that would kind of maybe hit the tip of Florida and go on out if anything were to develop. I don't think it will. Here are the temperatures uh in temperature in terms of actual temperatures of the Caribbean. So, they're running pretty warm. We're looking at temperatures in the uh 80 to 84 range. That's pretty good. U but again, up here in the Atlantic, things kind of cool off quick as far as the anomalies go. So things are running a little bit warmer than normal in the Caribbean and the Gulf and off the eastern sections of um uh the Atlantic here out in the west atlantic off the eastern seabboard we've got a warmer than normal pocket of um temp temperature anomalies as well as extending out into the central Atlantic.

[00:16:58]But down in our main development region it's very cool relative to normal. So I'm not really excited about a lot of tropical development in the near future and neither is the tropical prediction center. Okay. So, not really looking anything major, but certainly could see if the GFS is right. A little tropical depression develop and um maybe we'll see what happens after that. But a lot of wind shear to overcome. So, I'm not enthusiastic about it. Anyway, my friends, that's the show for today. Hope you have a fun Memorial Day doing whatever it is you do. And always remember to stay sharp, chase hard, and tune back in tomorrow for another video.

[00:17:29]We'll be back again. Have all of the latest information for you. So, hope you have a wonderful day. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you back soon. Take care everybody. God bless.