The Cities Nobody Is Moving FROM — And Why That Tells You Everything

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Every week there is another headline about Americans fleeing expensive cities, leaving San Francisco, leaving New York, leaving Los Angeles. And those headlines are real. The outflow from those cities is real, and I have covered it on this channel. But here is the question nobody is asking. While everyone is focused on where people are going, which cities are people refusing to leave? Because the cities with the lowest outflow rates tell you something that no price chart, no inventory graph, and no foreclosure filing can tell you.

[00:00:29]They tell you where people who have the freedom to leave, remote workers, retirees, investors, anyone with options, are choosing to stay. And that revealed preference is the most honest signal about housing market health that exist.

[00:00:42]I am going to show you the data behind seven cities where people are not moving away.

[00:00:47]And then I am going to tell you exactly what that means for buyers and investors watching these markets. Before the cities, a quick note on methodology.

[00:00:56]Because this data is less familiar than the price and inventory numbers I usually cover, and you deserve to understand where it comes from. Dot force number one, migration data. Every year the IRS publishes county-to-county migration data based on tax return filings. This tracks how many tax filers moved from one county to another in a given year.

[00:01:15]It is the most comprehensive migration data set available and covers virtually the entire tax-paying population. Dot force number two, USPS change of address records. The United States Postal Service tracks change of address requests at the zip code level. This data, aggregated by analytics firms including Redfin and the National Association of Realtors, provides near real-time migration signals that are more current than IRS data. Dot force number three, moving company booking data. United Van Lines, Atlas Van Lines, and several national moving companies publish annual migrations reports based on their booking patterns. When combined with IRS and USPS data, this provides a cross-validated picture of where people are moving from and to. The metric I am using for this analysis is net outflow rate, the number of households leaving a metro divided by total households expressed as a percentage. A city with a low net outflow rate is a city where departures are minimal relative to arrivals and to total population. Every city on today's list has a net outflow rate in the bottom quartile nationally, meaning they are retaining residents better than 75% of American metros. Got city number one, Buffalo. New York, Buffalo opens this list as the city that will surprise the most people because Buffalo's reputation as a declining Rust Belt city has not caught up with what the migration data now shows dot net outflow rate, 1.2% among the lowest of any major metro in the Northeast.

[00:02:37]Buffalo's transformation over the past decade is one of the most underreported urban stories in America. The city has rebuilt its economy around health care, education, and a growing technology sector anchored by the University at Buffalo, which has become a significant research institution with growing industry partnerships in advanced manufacturing and clean energy.

[00:02:57]The Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus, a $1 billion medical research and treatment complex built over the past decade, has anchored a health care employment base that now rivals the city's manufacturing legacy. Major employers including Kaleida Health, Catholic Health, and M&T Bank provide stable, non-cyclical employment that creates the kind of income security that keeps households from moving. But the migration data tells a more specific story.

[00:03:23]The people not leaving Buffalo are largely households that have done the cost comparison and concluded, "I cannot afford what I would get somewhere else for what I pay here." Median home prices in Buffalo hover around $215,000.

[00:03:37]Median two-bedroom rent, approximately $1,050 per month. Cost of living is 8% below the national average per the Council for Community and Economic Research.

[00:03:48]When you can own a three-bedroom house in a genuine neighborhood, walkable, with character, with good schools, for $215,000.

[00:03:56]The motivation to leave for an expensive Sun Belt city or a struggling coastal market is low. The Elmwood Village neighborhood, specifically, walkable, dense, restaurant rich, architecturally distinctive, offers a quality of urban life that costs three to four times as much in comparable coastal neighborhoods. Residents know this. It shows up in the outflow data got city number two Madison. Wisconsin-Madison is one of the most consistently healthy mid-tier housing markets in America, and its outflow data confirms what its price stability has been signaling for years.

[00:04:27]{dot} net outflow rate 1.4%. Madison's retention is driven by a combination of factors that are unusually difficult to replicate elsewhere. The University of Wisconsin is not just an employer, it is an ecosystem. The university employs approximately 22 people directly and anchors a research and technology commercialization pipeline that has produced dozens of significant companies across biotech, software, and clean energy. Epic Systems, one of the largest healthcare software companies in the world, headquartered in the Madison suburb of Verona, employs over 13,000 people locally and pays above market salaries in a below market cost environment. That combination, high wages, low costs, is the single most powerful retention mechanism a city can have. When you earn San Francisco adjacent tech salaries in a city where a median home costs $380,000, >> [music] >> and you can bike to a lake in 10 minutes, the motivation to leave is minimal.

[00:05:24]Madison consistently ranks in the top five nationally for quality of life metrics, including access to outdoor recreation, restaurant density per capita, and educational attainment.

[00:05:34]These are not marketing claims. They are survey-based rankings that reflect how residents actually experience the city.

[00:05:40]The housing market specifics, median sale price approximately $378,000, up modestly from 2023 levels. Active listings are tight. Under 3 months of supply per Redfin. Days on market averaging 21 days. In a national environment of rising inventory and slower sales. Madison's market looks almost like 2021, competitive. Fast moving. And trending toward balanced rather than over supplied. The people not leaving Madison have done a calculation. That buyers watching from outside the city should take seriously.

[00:06:13]Got city number three.

[00:06:14]Columbus, Ohio. Columbus appears on this list for the third time across different analysis on this channel. And every time it appears. It is for the same reason.

[00:06:23]The data keeps pointing here dot net outflow rate. 1.6% Columbus's retention story is inseparable from its employment story. When the jobs are good and getting better. And when the Intel investment makes them likely to get significantly better over the next 5 to 7 years. People do not leave. But there is a specific migration dynamic in Columbus that the ears data reveals which goes. Beyond just people staying.

[00:06:46]Columbus is one of the few metros in America. Where the net migration balance has turned positive for college educated workers in their third of race.

[00:06:54]Historically the most mobile demographic in the country.

[00:06:57]Young professionals with options. The people most likely to leave a market that is not working for them. Are choosing Columbus at a rate that exceeds departures.

[00:07:06]That specific demographic signal is the most bullish possible indicator for long-term housing demand. The practical implication for housing. When the demographic cohort most likely to buy starter homes and upgrade to family homes over the next decade is net positive in your metro.

[00:07:21]Housing demand has a durable runway.

[00:07:24]This is not speculative. It is the direct consequence of an employment base. That attracts and retains exactly the households. That drive sustained housing demand. The current Columbus market data. Median sale price.

[00:07:35]Approximately $295,000.

[00:07:38]Up 3.2% year-over-year. Days on market 24 days. Months of inventory, 2.8. Every metric pointing toward a market that is healthy and stable, rather than either overheating or correcting. Got city number four.

[00:07:51]Hartford, Connecticut. Hartford is the most counterintuitive entry on this list because Connecticut has a reputation for high taxes and high costs that would seem to predict high outflow {dot} net outflow rate. 1.8% the nuance the headline reputation misses. The Hartford metro is not Hartford city. The metro includes West Hartford, Simsbury, Glastonbury, and the Farmington Valley, some of the most livable small city communities in the Northeast with excellent school systems, genuine town center walkability, and housing prices that are significantly more accessible than comparable communities in Boston or New York's suburbs.

[00:08:26]The retention driver in the Hartford metro is insurance industry employment.

[00:08:31]And it is more stable than almost any other employment base in America.

[00:08:35]Hartford has been the center of the American insurance industry for over 150 years. Cigna, Aetna, The Hartford, and Travelers all have major presences in the metro.

[00:08:44]These are not cyclical employers. Health insurance, property casualty, and commercial insurance employment does not evaporate during recessions the way tech or finance does.

[00:08:54]The households not leaving Hartford are largely insurance and health care industry employees who earn above average salaries in a metro where $350,000 buys a genuinely good house in a genuinely good neighborhood. The value proposition relative to Boston, two hours away with comparable amenities at dramatically higher prices, is obvious to anyone doing the math. The specific migration data tells a more granular story. Hartford is losing young adults to Boston and New York for their early career years.

[00:09:24]But it is gaining them back in their early 30s when they start families and discover that $350,000 in West Hartford gets you a four-bedroom colonial with a yard and top-rated public schools. That return migration from expensive coastal cities is a specific and identifiable trend in the IRS data. Got city number five, Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina's Research Triangle is the Sunbelt market that has done what most Sunbelt markets failed to do. It grew rapidly during the pandemic boom without losing the fundamental characteristics that make it worth growing into. Dot net outflow rate 2.1% higher than the first four cities on this list. But still in the bottom quartile nationally and remarkably low for a market that absorbed as migration as Raleigh-Durham did during the pandemic years.

[00:10:10]The reason people are not leaving is the reason people came in the first place.

[00:10:14]And that reason is employment. Apple's $1 billion campus investment, Google's expanded Research Triangle Park presence, a biotech and pharmaceutical cluster that has been building for 30 years and shows no signs of slowing.

[00:10:27]Three major research universities, Duke, UNC, NC State, generating a constant pipeline of skilled workers in research commercialization.

[00:10:35]Then the employment base that attracted you to a city continues to grow after you arrive, you do not leave. The Research Triangle's employment momentum has been consistent enough and diverse enough across sectors that the economic disruptions affecting pure tech markets like Austin or San Francisco have not produced the same outflow pressure. The housing market data reflects this retention. Despite a modest correction, prices down approximately 8% from peak.

[00:11:02]36% of listings with price cuts.

[00:11:04]Raleigh-Durham's correction has been the shallowest of any Sunbelt metro that saw comparable in-migration during the boom.

[00:11:11]The underlying demand that the low outflow rate reflects is putting a floor under prices that other correcting Sunbelt markets simply do not have. Got city number six, Minneapolis-Saint Paul.

[00:11:21]Minnesota-Minneapolis-Saint Paul is the cold weather city that data analysts keep identifying as one of America's most fundamentally sound housing markets. And it's outflow rate confirms the picture.net outflow rate 1.9% Minneapolis has a specific economic quality that is rare among major metros.

[00:11:39]Genuine Fortune 500 density. Target, Best Buy, Susquehanna Bancorp, Ameriprise Financial, General Mills, Land O'Lakes, and Ecolab are all headquartered in the Twin Cities metro.

[00:11:49]That concentration of major corporate employers means the job market is not dominated by a single industry, making it structurally resistant to sector-specific downturns. The migration data for many Metropolises shows a specific and telling pattern. The metro loses population to warmer states, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, among retirees and empty nesters seeking better weather. But among working-age households with children, outflow is minimal. The combination of strong schools, genuine neighborhoods, a vibrant food and art scene, and a job market with depth and diversity keeps families in place. Dot housing market specifics. Median sale price approximately $340,000, essentially flat year-over-year, which in the current national environment represents meaningful stability. Days on market averaging 28 days. Active listings up only 11% year-over-year compared to 28% nationally. The honest trade-off Minneapolis residents accept, winters. January in Minneapolis is genuinely cold. The people who stay have decided that 6 months of cold weather is an acceptable price for financial stability, career opportunity, and a quality of life that costs significantly more elsewhere. The outflow data says that calculation, cold winters for everything else Minneapolis offers, is one that hundreds of thousands of households are making and sticking with cut City number seven sent. Richmond, Virginia Richmond closes this list as the sleeper market that more housing analysts should be watching, and whose outflow data is one of the most compelling in this entire analysis.net outflow rate 1.3% the second lowest on this list behind only Buffalo. Richmond sits in a geographic sweet spot that is increasingly rare. It is 2 hours from Washington D.C., 2 hours drive from Charlotte, and 90 minutes from the Virginia Beach metro. That positioning, accessible to major job markets without the cost or congestion of being inside them, is exactly what a growing number of remote and hybrid workers are seeking. The employment base in Richmond is anchored by financial services.

[00:13:47]Capital One Financial, one of the largest banks in the United States, is headquartered in Richmond and employs thousands of people locally.

[00:13:55]CarMax, Dominion Energy, and a significant federal government contractor presence round out an employment base that is stable, well compensated, and not dependent on any single sector. The specific data point that makes Richmond stand out in the outflow analysis, the city is one of the top destinations for households leaving the Washington D.C. metro. People who want proximity to D.C., salaries and connections without D.C. prices or commutes. That consistent in-migration from a high-income source market has supported Richmond housing demand through conditions that have weakened comparable metros. That housing market specifics that reflect this retention, median sale price approximately $330,000, days on market averaging 25 days, months of inventory 2.6, the tightest of any market on today's list.

[00:14:42]Richmond is, in terms of pure market mechanics, a seller's market in an era when almost everything else has shifted to buyer favorable conditions. The neighborhoods driving Richmond's quality of life case, the Fan District's Vic- torian row houses, Carytown's walkable shopping and dining, Manchester's converted industrial loft buildings offer urban character at price points that feel almost implausible to buyers arriving from coastal cities.

[00:15:07]If this analysis is shifting how you think about where to buy, rent, or invest, hit subscribe. This is the kind of data angle I bring every week. It helps the channel grow when you do. Let me show you why the outflow metric is such a powerful predictor, because understanding the mechanism makes it more useful than just a list of cities.

[00:15:26]The relationship between outflow rate and price stability is one of the strongest correlations in housing market data.

[00:15:32]Markets with low outflow tend to show tighter inventory.

[00:15:35]>> [music] >> When people do not leave, their homes do not hit the market. Supply stays constrained relative to the demand floor that the staying population creates {dot} faster days on market. The buyers in low outflow cities are competing for a smaller pool of available properties, which keeps transaction velocity high even when the broader national market slows shallower corrections. When the national market corrects, low outflow markets correct less. The data from 2022 to 2026 confirms this. Columbus, Madison, and Richmond have seen price corrections of 3 to 8% from peak.

[00:16:08]Phoenix, Austin, and Boise, high's outflow markets, have seen corrections of 18 to 29% normal durable recovery.

[00:16:16]When rates eventually fall and buyer demand returns nationally, low outflow markets recover faster because the underlying demand was never truly absent. It was just rate suppressed.

[00:16:26]High outflow markets face a more complicated recovery because some of the demand that left was structural, not just rate sensitive. The practical implication, if you are choosing between two markets of similar price and quality, the one with lower outflow is almost always the better long-term bet.

[00:16:42]Not because of any one fact, but because low outflow is the aggregate signal of dozens of factors all pointing in the right direction simultaneously. Here is how to apply the outflow framework to any city you are evaluating, whether it is on today's list or not. Statistic number one, look up the IRS migration data for the county. The IRS publishes this data annually at irs.gov/statistics/soytaxstatsmigrationdata.

[00:17:06]It is free, public, and updated each year. Search for your target county.

[00:17:10]Look at the net migration number.

[00:17:12]Positive means more people arriving than leaving. Negative means the reverse.

[00:17:16]{dot} number two. Cross-check with U-Haul's data via Redfin. Redfin publishes a migration report based on U-Haul's VS data that is more current than IRS data. Search Redfin migration report plus your city name. This gives you a near real-time picture of net flows. Status number three, ask why. A low outflow rate means nothing without understanding the reason. Buffalo's low outflow is driven by affordability and healthcare employment. Madison's is driven by university ecosystem and tech wages. Richmond's is driven by D.C.

[00:17:45]adjacency and services stability.

[00:17:47]Understanding the mechanism tells you whether the trend is durable or circumstantial. Status number four, compare to price trends. Low outflow plus rising or stable prices confirms the signal. Low outflow plus falling prices is unusual and usually signals a market where sellers are overpriced relative to the staying buyer base. That combination can represent opportunity if the price correction catches up to the fundamental demand floor the outflow data reveals. That moving truck is still sitting there. Empty. Nobody loading it.

[00:18:17]Nobody leaving dot in the seven cities I showed you today. That is not an accident. It is a decision made by hundreds of thousands of households who have evaluated their options and concluded, I am staying not because they cannot leave because the job is good.

[00:18:31]The neighborhood is real. The cost is manageable. The quality of life is worth more than a warmer winter or a more famous city skyline. That decision, multiplied across an entire metro, is what healthy housing demand actually looks like. Not speculative in-migration driven by pandemic era anomalies. Not investor purchases chasing appreciation.

[00:18:50]Just people with options choosing to stay. When you are deciding where to buy, rent, or invest, find the cities where people with options are choosing to stay. The outflow data will tell you where those cities are. And right now, it is pointing to Buffalo, Madison, Columbus, Hartford, Raleigh-Durham, Minneapolis, and Richmond. Leave a comment below. Are you in one of these cities? Or is there a city you think belongs on this list that I did not cover? Tell me and I will look up the outflow data and respond. Like it and subscribe for weekly data-driven analysis like this.

[00:19:22]I will see you in the next video.