THE BITCOIN CYCLE IS REPEATING... *again*

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]The Bitcoin for your cycle is still exactly playing out. And that is why on today's update video, I will give my price targets of the Bitcoin bottom. I will give a big update on my $5 million Bitcoin short position that now is in about $400,000 in profit. I will be going over why and what is happening behind the charts on Bitcoin, how liquidity is currently being built up, how we're seeing open interest rising up again here while the price is falling.

[00:00:29]So this and of course the most important news and data points will be getting discussed on today's update video. So without any further ado, don't forget to once again watch this video till the end. It's going to be packed with important information. So slap that like button back above 700 likes will be highly appreciated. And let me jump straight away in today's update video.

[00:00:50]And first of all, I want to give some perspective about the opportunities that are going to be emerging because like we know here, if you've been on Twitter, AI has been a big hype here. And the Entropic IPO, which is a very big AI company behind Claude, they are doing an IPO and their IPO is currently valued around $950 billion. That is absolutely insane. And for example, all the AI coins combined in the entire cryptocurrency market are not even valued $10 billion. So think about the possibilities that is for sure going to give us. So of course I'm not saying this is the right time to be buying altcoins, but especially in the upcoming cycles, there is so much more upside that is still going to come for crypto, especially as more things are going to be getting tokenized. And also big news here in the space is that Iran has officially rejected the US demands and says that Washington has no rights to dictate the terms. So still the conflict in the Middle East doesn't seem to be over. And before I dive in towards my Bitcoin charts, I want to give a give a big update about what Warren Buffett is doing because I find it very interesting. Because on this chart over here on the S&P 500, you can see when he was sitting on a big cash pal. So in 1988 to 2000 he was uh cashing up about 21% of his portfolio in cash and after that the big correction came here. Then in 2005 all the way to 2007 uh he went up 51% in cash and a big correction came. Then in 2020 with with the C19 crash he was all the way up 36% in cash and then also again a big correction came and very important noteworthy in these corrections he also accumulated and now in this major yeah we could say AI bubble or this major rally higher he is sitting 31.7% in cash while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are going absolutely exponential. So this is once again a very interesting thing here. We do know that for the last one and a half year he's been aggressively stacking cashier. And the reason why I'm talking about the S&P 500 is because in a previous video I explained how big the correlation is here between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 whenever they bottom. Because if you overlay the Bitcoin chart on the S&P 500 right now, you can clearly see every single Bitcoin bottom has corresponded with a low in the S&P 500 as well. here like 2022 over here like the 2019 bottom like the 2020 bottom you can see every single bottom also over here this low in the market this low in the market you can see it always happening and of course on other video I went more in detail about it but uh yeah just for reference so you understand and the thing is why I'm talking about this because this chart I'm currently showing you over here is the NASDAQ divided by the total money supply and this means that right now we are more invested into tech stocks than ever before. Of course, due to the AI company search here and yeah, this is just something absolutely insane here. We are even more invested than the com bubble which was a major bubble because everyone was invested and now everyone is invested in AI stocks here. So, just for reference, we are very very highly valued. I'm not saying over overvalued but highly valued because predicting such kind of a crash is almost impossible to do here. Now let me dive in towards Bitcoin because I wanted to give you some context about the stock market how Bitcoin is correlated but now let me dive in towards Bitcoin. Uh Bitcoin is currently sitting of course on this very important upward sloping support line aka this bare flag pattern. the moment we're going to be breaking this uh flag here, I think we're going to be getting a very big drop towards the downside just like previous occasions actually like previous flags. Um we usually tend to retest like a couple times here before we ultimately break down here. That is exactly what we're seeing currently as well here. More than 3 days we're already sitting on this level, but the moment we're going to be breaking below it is for sure going to be the most critical level to be watching. We already broke below the rising wedge pattern which I shorted here on the exact top side because I saw this pattern being I saw this pattern created. I saw this pattern emerging.

[00:05:14]That is why I went in towards this short position which is now in about $400,000 in profit which is of course very very nice here. I am planning to lock in my profits in the low 60s since I still think the price targets for me are laying a little bit lower since if you're looking purely at the technicals here. Bitcoin it has officially right now broken below this low over here which means that we are confirming a lower low on the daily time frame which is also breaking the trend. that of course most of the charts are pointing out we're going to be breaking lower and like I yesterday went more in detail about here why I think this is a major Bitcoin bull trap here is since if we're looking at the clear data here Bitcoin is currently falling towards the downside while open interest is building up towards the upside and we are seeing that the funding rates remain to be positive as well this is a clear signal that another long squeeze is most likely to be happening and yeah this is for me Just a very important thing to be looking at. And this data is for me proving that most likely we're going to get another squeeze lower. And the last time I said also this happened was over here in this big correction towards the downside. Right? We saw Bitcoin building up a lot of long positions in the correction and those long positions over here were squeezed and that is why Bitcoin moved ever so slightly lower and over here we went towards the upside since we were s we saw major increase in open interest but those were all short positions. So we squeezed out the short position and we moved towards the top side. So yeah, something very similar is once again emerging and most likely this is going to be leading towards a massive Bitcoin long squeeze. So yes, I will continue to hold my short positions open and whenever I'm going to be seeing a different signal emerge, I am most likely just going to be closing out of my trades here and starting to open up long positions again here. And if you are maybe interested in trading yourself here, first of all, I want to be mentioning that you do have the opportunity to copy trade me with my exact trades I'm taking in my free Discord community which you can join using the third link below here. But guys, I am working together with Tapet and WEX. And they're both running an insane campaign here where on WX you can currently get a 25% fee rebate and a $30,000 deposit bonus which you can get using the first link below here on but also on debit they are running a every single day a 6K daily giveaway and on top of that guys you can unlock $400. So that is of course super super valuable.

[00:07:41]Again here you can see also a $100 signup bonus. So, don't forget to check it out in the first or second link in today's video description to uh sign up your account over there. And actually by the end of this week here, we're also doing a 1K giveaway here on Tbit. So, yeah, don't forget to create your account right now and it will inform who is going to be the winner by the beginning of next week here. So, make sure to check it out using that first and second link below here. But let me continue a little bit further in today's video because in the intro of this video I stated that Bitcoin its cycles are still repeating. And that is what and the reason why I said this is because the Bitcoin top has once again emerged where it always happened. And if we're going to be looking at the Bitcoin bottom, I think it's also going to be happening exactly where it always has happened. And so far the cycle still playing exactly out like it's supposed to do here. I mean ultimately we're still creating a bearish trend here where we're creating lower highs and so far as well lower lows. The question is are we going to be continuing this trend? I personally think yes. And if we're going to be looking at where the support has historically lame for the previous Bitcoin bare markets. Uh in the 2019 bare market, it was the 200 weekly moving average aka the 4-year average price for Bitcoin. In the 2022 bare market, it was a little bit more brutal and we went towards the 7-year average price, which is this orange line here on the lower side. So, worst case or best case, we are most likely going to be bottoming in between these trend lines.

[00:09:08]And that is for Bitcoin going to be between $47,000 and between $61,000.

[00:09:14]So, that is ultimately also where my bottom range is here. I do think it is going to be a very likely range also, and I think it's a very realistic target. That would mean that bitcoin from the high to the low has dropped about 62% which is a very realistic target. I mean last bare market it was 82% but every single sorry 77 before that it was 82 if if I say it correctly.

[00:09:36]Uh yeah it was 84. So yeah we are historically also seeing diminishing returns towards the upside and towards the downside. So a 60% correction would make a lot of sense here. And the reason why it's still embedding on this averages slightly is the correlation between the S&P 500. And since the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are so overvalued, it could also always come down quite aggressively because everything that goes up quickly can come down quickly as well here. I mean if it were to come back only towards this trend line over here or like re reverse the last month gains here it would be already detrimental for Bitcoin because Bitcoin uh if the S&P or the stock market goes down here Bitcoin gets dragged so aggressively with it and so far it is also looking very similar like uh the previous cycle in terms of behavior from the chart here. So, Bitcoin broke below this level. Now is this level was previously around flipping trying to be flipped into support. Now, it is acting as resistance. So, yeah, let's see how it's going to be playing out here. But I personally see this as a rejection from this Fibonacci level. And I've always stated the golden pocket entry on the Fibonacci which is $57,000 to about $54,000 is going to be a tremendous opportunity for me to at least accumulate. So, yeah, that is where I would love to accumulate. And of course, if we're going to be coming there, it's going to be just giving us a huge opportunity.

[00:10:57]First of all, it's a liquidity cluster of major support and um yeah, it is also a very technical level where we can find support and a very and of course we have these moving averages that are also laying over there. So yeah, I'm quite excited to reach that retest that level.

[00:11:13]In terms of timings of the cycle, I still remain to be believing that we've got about 50 maybe 100 maybe 150 days before the Bitcoin bottom is going to be uh occurring. I think the window is going to be opening up in like like 20 to 30 days here. Then the bottom could be already occurring. But uh yeah, as of for now, I don't think the bottom is most likely going to be happening already. Like this was the 2012 cycle where we bottom so early and of course you can see that it still took quite a while before we took off. So yeah, I would definitely say at least 100 days before the bottom window for Bitcoin is going to be opening. We are building up some liquidity on the top side on the liquidation heat map. But uh yeah, don't be fooled because if we're looking at the data from the open interest, yeah, mainly over here, people are opening up long positions and that is of course something that is worrying me ever so slightly. We are of course sitting at this major level of support, but the moment we're going to be falling below this and especially this bare flick pattern, we're most likely going to come down further. So this was it for me in today's update video. If you did enjoyed, learned something from this video, slap up that like button will be highly appreciated and see you guys on the next one. Peace out. Goodbye.