This video explains how to analyze crypto market cycles using technical indicators like the 200 moving average, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Tether market cap dominance to identify trend reversals and optimal trading times. The presenter demonstrates how to spot bearish divergences (when price makes higher highs but RSI makes lower highs) as warning signs of potential market bottoms, and how to use confluence from multiple indicators to strengthen trading decisions. The analysis covers macro time frame analysis (weekly, monthly) for long-term strategy and lower time frames (4-hour, 1-hour) for short-term trading opportunities, emphasizing that understanding market structure and price action is more important than predicting exact price movements.
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Ripple XRP PRICE EMERGENCY! THIS HAPPENS NEXT FROM MIAMI! (BREAKING CRYPTO NEWS)追加:
All right, bull runners. Welcome back to the channel. So, we have a price emergency video for Bitcoin, for XRP, the entire altcoin market. And I don't usually do these videos, uh, but I think it's warranted right now with this sell-off that we've seen happen in the market. I'm going to explain what's going on. I'm going to talk about what we've been covering inside of our accelerator calls as well too to prepare our community for this because this is not catching anyone off guard that has been attending those calls. We were expecting a sell-off and it's happening to the tea. So, I'm going to talk about in this video uh what I'm expecting to happen next and then I'm going to share with you a plan on what to do during sell-offs like this because you know when they're happening, you know, people panic, they sell and then the markets reverse. So, I'm going to talk about likely reversal points on the lower time frames. I'm also going to discuss what's causing this selloff and a lots in between. So, comment 777 if you guys are still feeling blessed. This isn't going to be one of my usual polished up videos edited. It's just going to be raw, uncut, and I'm going to get this out to you as soon as possible. So, I'm filming this. You know, you'll probably see it in the next 30 minutes to an hour. So, comment 777 if you're film blessed, if you're film bullish. Let's run it.
All right, bull runners. Welcome back to the channel. So, over the past 7 days, you know, Bitcoin has been down 12%, Ethereum 10%. Uh, and then we have XRP down 8%, Salana down 12. So XRP and BNB are actually holding up pretty well. You know, Hyperliquid has held up the best over 16%. So if you're on our community, you guys know that we've been calling Hyperlid, you know, in the early days.
So you got some pretty good gains on that. If you didn't catch that, if you're not in our community, then nothing I can tell you, man. You just got to get involved. Michael Sailor sold he sold about 32 Bitcoin and over 10 billion in longs were just liquidated.
Now, he obviously has over 800,000 Bitcoin left, but he broke his buying streak and he broke his golden rule of never sell your Bitcoin. So, if someone like Sailor is willing to sell, then that tells you exactly what his motive is. It's to go on these mainstream media publications and do interviews to pump up Bitcoin so his company makes more money. And then he'll sell without telling you and then he'll come out and say it's no big deal.
>> We are buying. We're buying quite a lot actually and we'll we'll actually report our next buys on Monday morning. I think people will be pleasantly surprised. In fact, we've been accelerating our purchases. Are >> are you ever not buying, Michael?
>> No, we're always buying. Uh Bitcoin's always a good investment.
>> So, Michael Sailor's been buying since the all-time high, which I think is absolutely [ __ ] But what do I know?
You know, we've just been accumulating since Bitcoin was at $16,000. And we were telling our whole community that Bitcoin was likely to top out in quarter 4 of 2025 and it's likely to bottom out within a very specific time frame that I'll share by the end of this video. But three things happened this week that no one's been connecting. Number one, Treasury Secretary Scott Bassant confirmed the US seized $1 billion in Iranian cryptocurrency through Operation Economic Fury. He didn't say where those assets went. Number two, the strategic Bitcoin reserve blueprint is due to the president in July. And usually we have bearish Junes and bullish July. So, the price will likely bottom out. We will likely reverse to the upside, which I will get into in the chart and I'll prove in a little bit. Number three, Michael Sailor obviously sold Bitcoin for the first time in history. 32 coins.
Although that's not a lot compared to how much they own. The key here is the man who said he would never sell sold.
So, that shows you his character there.
He will say one thing publicly on the media and do another thing. Even if it's a small amount, it's about the principle there. So you're watching a controlled demolition of price before a sovereign acquisition event that's going to happen in quarter four of this year. And it happens right along Q every single market cycle. They need the price low.
They need retail out. They need the market quiet before the largest government purchase of digital asset in human history. So Sailor wasn't panicking. He was given a signal to sell a little bit now. Scare the markets. Buy back after the announcement when the markets are lower. The seized Iranian crypto is not sitting in a Department of Justice evidence locker. It's already been transferred. The reserve is not empty. It's being filled while you watch the price fall. So every red candle is a transfer of wealth from weak hands to the United States Treasury. July is not a report. It's a reveal. And when the blueprint drops, the floor will be set by the US government. And everyone who sold between now and then will understand what happened to them. So it was never a crash. It was a planned harvest. And when you understand market structure, this was easy to predict. In fact, we've been doing calls every single week for our clients who've gone through the link below, who've joined our private intelligence network. And these calls run two hours to three hours long every single Monday. And then we have calls every single Wednesday as well, too. In fact, I actually teach this entire trading strategy, showing you how to do this all yourself, so you don't need to rely on our calls. But here's exactly what I said on our call on Monday. And I was talking about the 200 moving average and also talking about the divergence that we saw in Tether's uh chart. So, when you use the cheat sheet here, we're just going to run through it step by step to get a macro understanding of where the market is at right now, and then we'll dive into lower time frames uh to understand where the market could likely move in the short term. All right, so first I always love to understand like the macro all at all times, right? When I dive in like once a week or once a month, I'm doing my macro analysis. Then if I'm doing daytoday, I'm more on like the 15 minute, the hourly or the 4 hour chart.
Okay? But when I do macro analysis, I'll I'll tend to revisit that every week.
So, I think it's good to start always start these calls with macro analysis where I see the markets at and then um you know, you guys will see if you're on the same page and you know, based on the other team members on the call, we're all pretty much on the same page here.
Uh so, identifying the trend up, down, or sideways. There's three types of trending markets, okay? You're either in a bull market, you're in a bare market, or you're ranging sideways. And there's really no clear direction. you're just, you know, ranging between a resistance and a support. So, if you guys haven't been through Paul's technical analysis essentials, I highly suggest going through that as well. It gives you a good understanding of support, resistance, ranges, that sort of stuff.
That's more so like 101, okay? And this as well is is pretty fundamental, too.
So, this is not anything advanced here, but you don't need to get super advanced on the markets to make a lot of money.
You have to understand the fundamentals and just master the fundamentals and know what to look for and and follow a proven process every single step of the way. So we always identify the trend. So when we look at both of these charts here, these are inversely correlated charts. Just meaning that when Tether's market cap dominance on the left hand side of the screen is moving up, it tends to mean that altcoins on the right hand side of the screen or Bitcoin would move down because as liquidity flows out of Bitcoin, out of altcoins, it flows into Tether, right? And the case in point for that as an example was last bare market cycle when we saw this drop here in total 2 which is everything other than Bitcoin. Um so Ethereum down from 1.26 trillion all the way down to $425 billion. What we saw happen for Tether's market cap dominance was Tether bounced off of the 200 EMA the moving average uh from about 3.75% all the way up here upwards of 9% in dominance. All that that means is just of the entire market cap of the industry, Tether held 9% at the time of that. Right now, Tether is about $187 billion in market cap. And we use Tether because it's the largest stable coin. We could use USDC, but Tether is the the best to use right now just to give us a gauge on how bullish or bearish people are on altcoins in the rest of the crypto market. So if Tether is holding 187, you just take that, divide that by the total market cap, and that's how you get the um the the dominance, the percentage, because right now the percentage is 7.79%. Right? So that market cap is 7.9% of the industry. Now, we're not using market cap as like a sole thing. It's just kind of like a a health gauge on confidence in the market right now. So when Tether bounced off the 200 moving average, rallied all the way up here, we saw this pullback. So, in in markets, right, when we see these reversals take place, it's a real warning sign on the macro, which would be like a weekly or monthly chart. Right now, we're on the daily on both of these to give you an idea of what the 200 moving average is showing you. When I do top down, I'm always starting on monthly first, then I go to weekly, then I go to daily. But we're just using the daily right now to give you guys, you know, a a broad picture here. So when you see Tether make a massive market reversal like this um on a macro time frame, we would see this on the weekly too as well, you know, where we broke this major resistance right here and we broke below this major support right here in the opposite direction for altcoins.
That's a major warning sign that, you know, we're not likely to recover from there for a period of time. And we go through these accumulation phases that last a period of time. And so we saw that happen back over here, okay? When we broke down below this key support and Tether's dominance did the exact same thing that it did last bare market cycle. It broke above a key resistance.
That was a major warning sign. All right, so that's that's the first thing that I'm really looking at is I always compare Tether to the market. And so very similar to what happened through here is what happened through here.
Also, the reason why I bring up the Bitcoin stock toflow rainbow indicator here is because it shows the exact same similarities in terms of the color code from Bitcoin's days until the next having because Bitcoin goes through the four-year mark market cycle having it's a theory. It's more so based off global liquidity, but uh Satoshi was genius enough to, you know, create Bitcoin and have the having cycle revolve around the liquidity cycles. So when you look at Bitcoin's stock toflow rainbow indicator, you can see the time frames for this. And so when Tether was breaking out, you know, during this light blue phase, it was doing the same thing this market cycle. And so we were discussing that over the past few weeks.
And uh when we see this from a macro perspective here, that gives us a gauge on what to do with our spot portfolio, okay? Our long-term holds. Because a lot of people what they do when they get into the market is they just buy and hold forever and they take 100% of their income to have it in one coin like XRP and then they just hold that through these market cycles. Now they get frustrated because then they see their portfolio swing 50 60 70%.
So if you put in let's say for example $100,000 in the market you get a 10x it goes to a million. Do you really want to ride that back down 80% 90% back to your initial investment or would you want to hedge out, you know, let's say 60 70 80% have $800,000 in stable coins earning yield and then redeploy that as the market gets more oversold on the macro to be able to reinvest it. I think you guys already know what a smarter strategy is. So, that's what I was doing back in 2021 all the way up here and over here because of what was happening on the Tether's market cap dominance chart and what I'm going to talk about over the course of today's call. And I'll I'll explain when I'm going to be rotating the majority of my capital back into the market cuz, you know, I'm I'm mostly on the sidelines right now, but I'm more bearish than I am bullish. And I'll explain the reasoning for that until we see what I'm talking about in this cheat sheet, right? Until we see confirmation, right? price action confirmation, break of structures on macro time frames. But first, we're always identifying the trend. All right, so the trend for Tether's dominance is what? It's in an uptrend, right? Pretty easy to see. We had a massive break of structure right here. Boss, for those of you that have been through the five-step divergence trading protocol, you guys understand what a BOS is. Break of structure. Just like right here, we break a resistance, we form a new high, and then we form a new low. on I think it was like a few months back I was talking about a likely support for tether would be the 200 moving average and if you look at that tether rallied or retrace pulled all the way back down almost to the 200 moving average to the T and now it's bouncing back off of it and like a magnet total 2 rallied up to the 200 moving average and got rejected just shy of it. Okay, so that's what we're using as you know one source of confluence here. But the main thing that we look at next when we identify the trend, right? Tether's in an uptrend, breakup structure. Higher high, higher low. Total two is in a downtrend. We got a break of structure. Lower low, lower high. We're still in a bare market.
Pretty simple. Pretty easy to see. Not not super complex. Okay? If it's complex, then I'm not teaching it right.
Okay? I want it to be so stupid simple that you guys are like, "Of course, this is obvious." I want it to be obvious for you. If it's not obvious, then it's going to be difficult to know what to do. All right. So, confirming divergence, we confirm if it if there's any regular bearish or regular bullish divergence. Now, there are other divergences. There's hidden divergences.
You know, there's there's strong strong divergences, weak divergences. We use the general ones as a rule of thumb because you see them over and over and over and over again on every time frame.
So, we're using the bigger time frames to identify these divergences next once we've identified the trend. And the trend is your friend until the bend at the end, until the break of structure.
And when we see, you know, the trend change, the divergences are the warning signs that that that give us a signal that they could be happening next. Like I've given the analogy, your car. If you're driving down the freeway and a yellow light comes on your car, then that's a warning sign. I had that happen when I was driving back uh to, you know, Miami from Siesta Key. It's only a 3 and 1 half hour drive, but I had the yellow check engine light come on. Now, that's not a sign that the car is going to explode right away. I could still make it came in 1 hour into the drive and I still have 2 hours left, but it gives me a warning like, hey, I need to go get this checked out when I can, but I could still make it the 2 hours drive back to the garage. Then I make an appointment to go take a look. So, in the markets, when you see these warning signs, which are divergences, right? So, we see bearish or bullish divergences, then that's a sign to look deeper into what's happening there. But if you're not seeing those, then it just means the trend is still moving in that direction, whether it's bullish or bearish. So, right now, what we're looking at first and foremost is Tether's chart. So, what I would be looking at here when we're in an uptrend is the highs on both the price chart and the relative strength index. This is now what we're moving into, the relative strength index, the RSI. This is the indicator, the main indicator that I use for divergences.
Now, you could use the stochastic RSI, you could use the MACD. Um, those also act as divergence indicators, but you don't need to use all of them, okay?
They just add as further confluence. If all of them show the same divergence as well, then that strengthens the the yellow warning light, meaning, yep, it's not a false signal. The last time that I was driving back uh from, you know, it was Tampa, I believe, or um you know, clear further north in Florida, I can't remember, down to Miami, the warning sign came on again. But when I took it in, it was a false signal. It's a faulty wiring. It didn't mean anything was wrong with the car. And then it might be faulty wiring again. Okay? So, a false signal. So, we need to identify if these divergences are false signals or if there's something going on under the hood. And so, confluence is how we do that. Now, I'll discuss confluence throughout the course of this, but to keep it simple, we're looking at the highs here in an uptrend. We're looking at the lows in a downtrend. So, on the macro, I'd be looking at the highest high, okay? And then the previous high.
And what I would do is I would look at the highs on the RSI, the relative strength index, and I would see what's happening. Now, clearly, you can see this is a higher high. And you can see this is a higher high. A divergence, a regular bullish divergence is when price does this and then the relative strength index does this. Price makes a higher high.
The RSI makes a lower high. Very simple.
They're diverging away from each other.
Okay? Price is still going up. The momentum, the RSI, relative strength, is going down. And that's a yellow warning sign on the car, meaning that the momentum is fading. It's shifting from bullish to bearish. And then we look for the red sign to pop up on the car, meaning like you need to get this checked out right now, which would be a break of structure. All right, so give me a 777 if that makes sense so far. And we do this on each of these charts. And this strengthens your confluence and strengthens your your outlook on the market to where when you make a prediction for yourself or you hear my predictions, you're like, how are they how are my predictions right a good chunk of the time? Not every time, but a good chunk of the time. It's not about ego. I'm like, I'm right here all the time because I'm not. I can be wrong.
But I use this strategy to be right the majority of the time. So that way I preserve my capital. Okay? Secure your capital. Then you grow it, then you scale it. Okay? So this is how you secure it first by understanding when is it likely that we're going to see a break of structure or trend reversals or retracements, you name it. So because on the weekly chart or the daily chart we're not seeing any like on the monthly we're not seeing any or weekly or daily regular bullish divergences meaning the macro decision to invest my capital into the altcoin market is just not there right now. So that's like a little check mark like we're still bearish. Okay, so that's a little one. You can get like a sticky note and put bearish, bullish, confluence signals for yourself. And I would tally down one little check mark under I'm I'm bearish on the macro, meaning I'm not rotating a lot of capital into the altcoin market yet. And I've given this example before when I was talking about Tether most likely rallying back to the upside in the past few weeks, the past month or two. And it's happening to the tea. And this is why. It's because we haven't seen these steps take place yet. the divergence.
Step number two, it just hasn't happened yet on the macro time frames. So, I might go into the 4 hour and see if there's anything. And the 4 hour itself, I would still be looking at these highs, okay? Cuz this would be the main thing I'm looking at. And, you know, it's not you're not seeing anything. It's just too far apart. Like, yeah. And it's just a higher high. Higher high. There's no regular uh bearish divergence to tell me that this bare market is over. And on the contrary, I would do the same thing on uh total twos chart except I would look at the lows. So I would look at this low right here and I would look at this low right here and I would see if the relative strength index is making a higher low or a lower low. And sure enough, you can see it made a lower low.
So there is no regular bearish divergence on the Tether's chart on Tether's market cap dominance connecting the highs and there is no regular bullish divergence connecting the lows of the RSI and the price action and the price chart on total 2's chart. So that's confluence, right? They're going to they're agree they're agreeing with each other that we're still bearish. So then what I do is I move either into lower time frames to identify if there's anything for like a day trade or swing trade rather than a macro spot position for macro decisions. And if there are, then I can enter in short or longs with a smaller portion of my portfolio while the larger portion stays in stable coins on the sidelines waiting for a major capital rotation likely in September to November. So that's why the risk was too high to be longing Bitcoin either way regardless of if we pushed up for a higher high. So it's all about riskto-reward. It's not about being right cuz it's kind of like, yeah, we could go up or down here, you know? It's about understanding where the risk-to-reward is if you were thinking about longing Bitcoin for this little move to the upside past the 200 moving average because it's possible that we push past the 200, but we didn't, you know. So, what we saw also happen was a shift in the Bitcoin stock toflow rainbow indicator here from light blue to dark blue. And we've seen that happen in the past. And that's actually why I had the double chart up here to compare it back to the past. So, let me do that now with you guys. and we'll talk about what happened on this break of structure here and um what price action is doing right now. That reminds me exactly of what happened through here. Even though there are some little differences, right? Like we peaked out in light blue here and then um I mean we peaked out in dark blue here, but we're seeing some similarities here. And the similarities were really simple to to spot on the chart. The trend macro downtrend, micro uptrend. The uptrend is just higher lows right here and higher highs and the trend is your friend until the bend at the end. So we identify the trend as step one. Step number two, we look for divergences. Now on the daily chart here, there wasn't any clear um divergence unless you get into the more micro time frames at these highs because they're pretty much equal highs here.
Even though the price chart is moving higher, um equal highs can still be, you know, a divergence, but these actually look like a little bit higher of highs.
So, this is no very, this isn't a clear uh regular bearish divergence here on the highs for Bitcoin's chart. So, this is why we use other points of confluence, too, cuz divergences are not reliable just by themselves. It's just one strategy that I'm talking about with you guys here in the divergence trading, you know, summary as well. But I do use other points of confluence, moving averages, you know, um other indicators, other charts, you name it, to strengthen my confluence. And I'll be talking about that more on these live calls, okay? To give you guys more confluence, you name it, right? So, when we're looking at the highs here in a in an uptrend to see if there is any regular bearish divergences, we didn't see that on the daily chart. Same thing back here. You know, we were forming higher highs on Bitcoin's chart, but we weren't really forming lower highs on the RSI and we were below 70. So, it wasn't a clear signal that this rally was done. So, it could still keep doing this until we see divergences play out. Now, if I don't see a divergence on a chart like the week, the monthly, the weekly, or the daily, I will still go into the 4 hour.
I'll go into a lower time frame. So all I do is I just click the 4H 4 hour here on Trading View and um I will look at the same price action that I was just looking at and I will see on the relative strength index what was happening at each of these highs in this uptrend here to look for a yellow warning sign on the car. Okay? Because I've already identified the short-term uptrend. So I want to see when this retracement rally is likely to roll over to the downside like what we're seeing right now. and we'll see if we can spot some of those signals. So, I would be looking at the highest high on the relative strength index in the uptrend.
And you can see it's about right here.
All right. Then I would look at the price action on the chart and you can see here as we get these lower highs and it's not very obvious here. It's kind of ranging around a little bit. Okay. So, this right here is not clear to me that this move is just going to roll over right here. So, I was expecting us to keep just kind of ranging up until we get a break of structure. So, I'm just watching this. This is like a false signal. This is nothing clear. We're not getting any, you know, very clear sign of lower highs here where the RSI just does this. Okay, it's kind of bouncing around a little bit. So, I'm not using that as a as a as a concrete signal here. Even with these highs like this, it's not very clear. Okay, so this is not anything clear for me that we're forming lower highs and we're seeing a very clear uh 4hour regular bearish divergence. And so, as I'm looking, you know, I'm not seeing it. So, if I wanted to spot these short-term micro trades here, I would go into another lower time frame and I would go from the 4 hour to the 1 hour. If I generally don't see anything on the 1 hour, I'm not entering into any trades. I'm just watching and I'm waiting for like break of structures and I'm seeing more uh from the support and resistance levels. And this would be like a key support level that I'd be watching. I'll be watching some key support levels that I'll talk about in another another tab that I have open for you guys and drawn up some stuff. But this right here is not very clear to me, okay? It's just a lot of ranging. So, I'm just watching the trend and I would be watching it more on the daily time frame instead of the 4 hour for Bitcoin because, you know, it was doing a lot of chop through here. And so, on the daily time frame, you know, we could see that Bitcoin had has a key support level here that I discussed in a in a previous um in the previous call. That was the zone of support. Okay. And this is the same as like the crypto total market cap as well, excluding Bitcoin. So, we'll use Total 2 as an example because Total 2 was in a short-term uptrend with Bitcoin and we broke this down where you look at the the highs and the lows to identify the trend. If it's higher highs and higher lows, it's just an uptrend. So, this is a short-term uptrend through here and the uptrend will continue until a break of structure. And so, what we look for is we look for the majority of points of contact where you see price uh respect or reject. So, this right here was resistance. All right? So price uh is rejecting it on these wicks multiple times until price breaks above it, you know, but there's a false breakout. So we rally all the way up, we come all the way back down, and then we use this zone right here as resistance again, but we're forming higher lows. And so this automatically starts being a key level to watch. And it's still a key level to watch where we're at right now. Now, I want to explain some things that I see happening right now that kind of puts me on edge and a warning, which is what I talked about two weeks ago to watch for.
And it's a a disrespecting of a zone of support to be like a start of a breakup structure, okay? Because that's what we're kind of seeing right here. So, we kept going up. All right? We didn't really see any, you know, clear regular bearish divergences up here in these highs, but we see this key zone of support that we're watching now to see a break of structure. All right. So when we were right here at this level, you know, I believe I talked about us likely, you know, ranging here, pushing a little higher, and then watching this zone of support to break and then using as resistance. All right, that's what we discussed. And so right now, we're at the start of that. So the real question then becomes when does the breakdown happen or is this a fake out to then push up higher for to clear this high here? Okay, so we're going to keep, you know, talking about this. So, I'm just going to be talking out loud and sharing with you guys my thoughts here. So, in this uptrend, what we saw happen here was we saw this wick to the downside beneath this key level of support here.
And it happened on uh the 23rd of May, you know, the last week of the month.
So, I'll zoom in here. Okay, this is the wick that I'm looking at. So, this is like the first sign that I generally look for in a break of structure is a wick to the downside and it pushes back up. And it's not quite yet a break of structure because there's no candle body close yet um beneath this zone. It's just a wick, but it tells me the bears are attempting to push it down and the bulls struggled to hold, you know, this level right here, these two key points.
And so that's a warning sign. So, it's a start of a tipping point, okay, for a break of structure and then a new downtrend like I discussed on this call here. And if I play this video out and I talk about this downtrend and this break of structure, this is what I'd be watching for here. So, I'd be very careful. A lot of people are jumping in the market and they might be buying right now. I would not, not financial advice. I would not be buying right now.
This is actually like a bearish sign.
So, that's another little tally on the bearish side for me on what's happening here. And this is just a retracement.
You know, this was just like a a suckers rally that lasted a little bit longer than it normally does. Like look here, last bare market, you know, from the low to the high, it was only 50some days. If you were to measure from the low here in February of 2026 to the high, it's 93 days. So, it's an 40 days more of a rally. And so, we're due for a pullback to the downside. You know, what happened back here to lead us to the bare market low. I think that's what we're going through right now. And what it looks like in the short term, we will see, but we're going to be watching based on these key steps here. So, if you want to jump on the next call, I'll leave a link below. It's actually to one of the most recent videos that I just came out with talking about the great reset, the order of bees, the secret societies that are basically planning the shift into a new financial era. And it's the same secret society from the 1800s behind the order of bees that's now building programmable money around your crypto. So, I'll leave a link in the description below or you can go to altcoinpro.com/greaterreset.
Watch this video. It's about 20 minutes long. and then click the link right here to watch the portfolio strategy to understand what to do during bare markets like this because on the macro perspective on the weekly chart, this was just another lower high at the 50 EMA. It was just shy of the 50 EMA. We were talking about this back here in January of 2026 where I was expecting price to rally up close to 100K and then get rejected back down to the 200 EMA.
So now we're back to the 200 EMA. In fact, we're below it. And if we go back to 2022 on the weekly chart, we did the exact same thing and we actually stayed below the 200 EMA for a period of time while we went through this entire accumulation phase for Bitcoin. So all we're going through right now is another macro accumulation phase. And the real question then becomes how low will Bitcoin go? Will we sweep out this low from February 2nd of this year? Because we're pretty much at it right now. We're at this wick. And so in order to understand that, we would need to go into the lower time frames. But just looking right now off of the stochcastic RSI, I mean, we just experienced a bearish cross. I talk about these on the weekly. These are not bullish signals.
So, anytime you get up here close to 100 on the weekly stochastic RSI, that's a time to be selling. Anytime you're down here near zero, when you're seeing regular bullish divergences on lower time frames, that's the time to be buying. So all through this phase right here was the time to be buying some crypto and then hedging out on these longs up here and then watching the price rally back to the downside. Now I think this crash is far from over even though we might get some relief in the short term just because of where we're at on the weekly. The relative strength index as well is at 34. You know if we see a bounce here off of this support we're going to go into the daily chart.
You can see the relative strength index right now is at 19 and the stochastic RSI is at 1.65 and 0.93. So, I would actually expect a relief rally here relatively soon and it could be pretty quick and pretty aggressive. Kind of similar to what happened back here because of how aggressive that that selloff was. You know, you see 1 2 3 bearish candles on the daily. And with the daily relative strength index, this oversold, I would not be surprised to see the price rocket back up here soon over the next, you know, 24 to 48 hours.
If we go into the 4hour chart as well, we can see, you know, that there is a bearish a regular bullish divergence starting to form. For example, you look at the lowest low on the relative strength index. Then you look at the next low and you can see on the price chart right here, it's a lower low on the price chart, but it's a higher low on the RSI. So, this is really the start of a much uh bigger reversal coming here, similar to what happened back here uh on this rebound. So, if it's a V-shaped recovery, that'd be awesome. I would expect some resistance back here at the 50 EMA as it continuously trends down and then uh a pullback like this or you know this pullback um this retracement right here is just really really small and then we actually continue a little bit lower and that would be a higher low on the relative strength index. That's what I would want to see. The golden area that I look for to get a better understanding if the bottom is in before a much bigger bounce to the upside is when we reclaim 30 on the relative strength index. And so what that looks like is the RSI doing something like this as the price continues down and then the RSI holding on top of 30 and then we see a major move back to the upside if it plays out like this. Then you get a resistance, you know, you get the support, you get the real low and it might be sweeping below this wick. So I think we're pretty close to a low. If not, maybe we have a little bit lower to go. You know, we sweep out this wick down here. we find a low like this and then we reverse back to the upside and then we start rallying back up closer to $70,000. Just off quick glance, that's my expectations and I've been making predictions like this for the past few weeks and I've been pretty spot-on since Bitcoin was at about $100,000. We were calling the bare market um after 2025 and leading us back into, you know, the weekly chart here on the macro. The market is likely to bottom out at sometime between October and September just based on the four-year market cycle. I know a lot of people are going to watch this video and say, "But this time it's different."
Really, man? I mean, are you still that naive? This time is not any different.
You can see from the bare market low to the high, we had a four-year market cycle to the T. You know, that was three years of a bull run. Um, three, sorry, one year of a bare market, three years of a bull run. That's a four-year market cycle from peak to peak. You can measure from the peak all the way to the peak and you get,428 days. And I'm not that quick at math because I'm kind of [ __ ] But if I do 1428 and I divide that by 365, I would guess that's four years. Yeah.
3.9, you know, almost four years exactly. And um, you know, you can get more analytical there on the exact peak.
If I go into like the daily time frame, but nonetheless, you know, we can see macro regular bearish divergence here with these lower highs on the relative strength index, higher highs on the price chart. And then once we got these break of structures where we cleared this support, this support and ultimately this support, that was a wrap. Now we're going through accumulation phase. And accumulation phase is between this high that I was talking about on our weekly calls now and wherever the low is going to be, we go through the accumulation where the elite shake everybody out. They buy all the way down here and then by September, October, we find a low. I would guess um at $50,000 or below. Arguably the nupole, if you look at this, the net unrealized profit and loss indicator. I made a post on Bullrunners Twitter.
Nobody liked it because it was the truth and no one wants to hear the truth. You know, they just want to hear uh that their bags are going to the moon. Now, I know a lot of the videos that I put out here talk about the the future growth of the industry and how bullish I am. And I'm still bullish. Don't get me wrong.
Nothing has changed on the macro. I'm very bullish. You know, I'm I'm playing the long game here. I I don't look as crypto as a get-richqu scheme. I look at crypto as very volatile in the short term, but on the macro outperforming everything else. I expect there to be a great rotation from the stock market over the crypto market from all these tech stocks that the elite are getting their quick gains on. You know, we're seeing an inverse correlation right now between, you know, tech stocks and uh Bitcoin. So, if on the right hand side of the screen, I pull up the S&P 500, you can see it's making an all-time high. But going back to Bitcoin here, the null, you can see right now on the net unrealized profit and loss, it's at 19.39. each time that we've gotten all the way down here to the lower band, that's where the bare market low has come in. So, just based off this, we're not even close to the low. If we were to drop all the way down here, that would be Bitcoin at like $35,000. So, I would not be shocked if that were to happen. I mean, honestly, I would like to see that happen. I want to see Bitcoin all the way down here by September and October to find a real low and then we go into the next bull run because we're still in a downtrend right now. You know, simple technical analysis. There's nothing complicated here. A downtrend is just a series of lower highs and lower lows.
When you look at the all-time high and then the next lower high and the next lower high, you look at the lows right here, it's very likely that we form another lower low and then we go into a lower high and then we see where the bottom is in, you know, somewhere in October to, you know, September, I would expect around there. And then we wait for a break of structure and then we watch this high right here. Once this high starts to clear, that's a real telltale sign that we're back into a bull run. It's the exact same thing that happened from 2022 to 2023.
Look at this. We were all the way up here at this phase. We are right at the 200 moving average. We break below it and then we rally up for a lower high and then we come all the way down for a lower low. Then look at the new. We get all the way down here on the lower band on the net unrealized profit and loss.
You know, we saw this bearish cross on the stochastic RSI. We kind of ranged for a little bit figuring out what to do. Then we saw another capitulation event to the downside. the stochcastic RSI crosses near 80, comes all the way down here, then we find the real low. I think the real low is the next time the stochastic RSI is beneath 20 and close to zero. I would watch here on the weekly chart. Once that's in, the relative strength index is likely to be holding on top of 30 somewhere over here. Okay, forming a higher low while the price chart does what? Forms a lower low. Now, I don't know how low that low will be. That does not matter. Newbie investors look at the price and they buy and they make decisions based on the price. Whereas smarter investors like you that are now watching these videos that are plugged in with our our accelerator program and our private intelligence network watch market structure, watch price action, understand how to use moving averages, divergences, you name it, volume.
There's so many other strategies that we teach in the back office. And if you go to altcoinpro.com, you can see our new website is out. You can scroll through it. We have 4.8 eight out of five stars on Trustpilot. And it's not because our predictions are right all the time. It's because of the riskmanagement parameters that we teach our members for when events like this happen and we see these shakeouts. But if we go to XRP's chart, you know, it's playing out similar to Bitcoin. It's just going to follow Bitcoin until we see the true low in.
XRP broke structure all the way back here on the 26th of January and then came back down to the 200 moving average. So when XRP decides to rally again, watch the 50 EMA that's going to act as resistance. So wherever the low is at here, you know, I would expect XRP to rally back into resistance, form another lower high, and then continue to the downside into October of this year to find the real low. And where will where will the real low be for XRP?
Well, that's a great question. That's anyone's guess. Like I said, it's not about a price prediction here to the to the downside. It's about market structure. It's about divergences. It's about watching price action. You know, if you just look at the new indicator here, XRP didn't find its true uh bare market low until it tapped the lower band here all the way down at like 20 to 25 cents somewhere around there. But I would expect XRP to make a low somewhere around, you know, 50 to 80 cents somewhere down here to come back to these levels that you can see from the last bare market in early bull where XRP was getting rejected from there. That's actually my expectation. And I would expect XRP to bleed out hard and see some, you know, crazy selling event here over the next few months. Even though I expect a short-term rally into July. So, you can actually potentially catch this short-term rally here. Just learn to watch the stochastic RSI. Right now, you know, it's at 61 and 41. So, it just means on the weekly there's more price action to the downside likely coming until we bottom out down here closer to zero. If I go into the the daily chart and look at the stochcastic RSI, you know, we're not quite bottomed out yet.
We're at 9 and zero. So XRP could definitely bleed out lower and we could see XRP clear this low relatively soon.
Uh but once that bottom comes in, the RSI will bottom out. We're at 24 right now. You know, we're pretty close to getting there. The stoastic RSI will bottom out and then it'll reverse back to the upside. We reverse back to the upside. You know, then we come in contact with the 50 moving average and then eventually the um the 200 moving average as well too. So, I would actually expect the 200 moving average and the 50 moving average to eventually cross when XRP makes a rally back into it. So, if we keep going lower, we could range for a bit and then rally back in to these two moving averages, get rejected again, find a true low, and then work our way through a break of structure to where we watch this resistance here. And the resistance I think will be similar to what happened boom back here when the 50 and the 200 came in contact with each other and then we saw this cross take place and then XRP you know ranged below it forming higher lows. That would be a major accumulation area for XRP. So what we're looking for is we're looking for this massive selloff. So we'll see how much further to the downside we go for XRP.
We're not as oversold on the daily chart on the relative strength index as we are for Bitcoin. So XRP could actually bleed out a lot more than Bitcoin. Um, we're only at 24. Uh, for Bitcoin on the daily, we're at 20 right now. So, Bitcoin, if Bitcoin experiences a bounce, XRP experiences a bounce, but I wouldn't get your hopes up on this bounce here. This bounce could be very short-lived, roll over, make contact with the 50, get rejected to the downside, sweep out this low, something like that. If it's more aggressive and it's a V-shaped recovery, then I would just expect price to kind of waller around here for a little bit, and then drop even lower going into quarter 4.
So, nonetheless, short-term recovery, midterm price action to the downside, long-term eventual break of structure, go back into a bull run, 2027, 2030, stock market great rotation from all these tech stocks over to the crypto market because the smartest investors in the world, they're watching the exact same thing and they're expecting the exact same thing. Retail investors were expecting price to go to a new all-time high when it had never done that in history. So, that's my take on the market right now. If you like it, give this video a like. If you absolutely hate it, give this video a like and subscribe to the channel either way. And I encourage you to check out the Great Reset video about the Order of Bees and the Secret Society plan that they've had for centuries. I'll leave a link for that in the description below as well, too. It'll be the second link. But as always, I will see you guys on the next video. I will see you at the top. You know what to do. Stay bullish.
Hey, hey, hey.
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