This analysis correctly prioritizes structural market cycles over emotional noise, providing a disciplined framework for understanding Bitcoin's volatility. It offers a balanced synthesis of technical precision and macroeconomic awareness that transcends typical speculative commentary.
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Deep Dive
π‘ Bitcoin: Volatilitas hari jumatAdded:
Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon everyone. Welcome to the Go Crypto live stream on the second channel. Welcome to Friday. Enjoy your long weekend. Yes, if you guys are on leave today, today we will discuss or throughout this live stream we will discuss the majority of the volatility of Friday that we just went through this morning, or more precisely, last night, I think it started from last night and this morning we saw it in full.
After that, the markets started going crazy again.
And now we're at uh now we're discussing or now we're going to discuss what happened in the last day. Yesterday's live stream seemed to be fine, there were no problems at all. Then suddenly a few hours after yesterday's live stream finished, Marcus started to go haywire, up and down, up and down, up and down.
We will discuss more about charting in the final section.
Before we start, this is a repeat of the announcement that I have said in the last two live streams, the last 3 live streams. From the 17th to the 22nd there will be no content at all for the public because I'm going on vacation. I will try to create additional content, not additional normal content for members, yes, if there is news, yes. If there is important news or there is something I need to tell you. But ee because I'm going on vacation, don't expect me to be able to reply to your comments or reply to what you call things that have happened or discuss things that have happened at that time. Yes, remember the 17th to the 22nd. So the whole next week I won't be there. We will open with a continuation of what we discussed in the last live stream on inflation, or the last two days' live streams on inflation in America and inflation in Indonesia. I am very, very disappointed to report to all of you that in this week, this week alone, the last 7 days, the rupiah has risen or more precisely, weakened by 300 perak. The highest rate since we last saw this weakness came in 1970 during the Indonesian monetary crisis when it was in chaos, how many 50 years ago, almost 50 years ago, in fact, exactly 50 years ago. This makes me really depressed to see it. And many memes have started to come out, many jokes have started to come out on the internet that ah we will touch how many 178 August 17, 1945 17845 huh. But at this rate, to be honest, I'm really, really, really depressed if we can actually see that figure realized. Yes, I'll also give you a perspective if the rate of inflation that occurs in the rupiah like this continues for just 1 month. In just 1 month, the rupiah has reached 19,000.
Imagine 19,000 per dollar. It's really tiring. But then again what [sighs] is what it is huh. There's nothing we can do. We can only pray. We can only mention Prabo so much on Twitter, okay? But we can't do anything. Honestly this is something we have to go through and we have to suffer together. Yes, apart from this news, what do we return to? We're back to our regular program, our regular episodes, okay? And I'm going to start this first new segment by talking about yesterday's volatility, okay? This was yesterday's discussion during an event that we discussed in the previous live stream. What's the event? There was an event that we discussed yesterday that was coming up last night. Yesterday we discussed it in the afternoon, then the evening came, namely the vote on the Clarity Act.
Yesterday we said we don't know if we 'll get through this or not. Cycles tell us that something is going to happen towards the confirmation of the weekly cycle low. And indirectly I said, it seems like the cycles are telling us that something bad is coming.
But it turns out that cycles, at least, well, retail, not retail, the market doesn't want to go down yet, and we got a clarity act that was voted on successfully. Bitcoin immediately rose to 82,000 after the Senate Banking Committee officially advanced the Clarity Act. Clarity X.
If you don't know, I already made a post, we already made it, we already talked about it at length back in January. This is the act. What is Act?
Like Bill, huh? What is Bill? It's like a rule, huh? Well, I don't know what it's called officially, but I often say it's rules. The rules I've been waiting for since December and January haven't arrived yet. Then to February, March, April and now entering May, it has been postponed for 5 months and finally finished. And this is something that is indeed bullish. Why? Because the Clarity Act is actually just pushing stable coin adoption, but it's covered up with Bitcoin manipulation, which should n't be allowed to happen too much. But it seems like four of the five points written in the Clarity Act actually push the adoption of stable coins, push the adoption of crypto to, uh, banks. Yes, that's why it was voted on by the banking committee, yes. Banking Compity doesn't care about Bitcoin, it cares more about stable coins, but it's packaged in the headlines with Bitcoin.
Anyway, yes, we already covered it in January. Well, maybe I'll cover it again tomorrow. But Bitcoin went up anyway. This is something positive. Bitcoin immediately up 3.6%.
Scalpers were immediately happy in the last 5 hours. Remember yesterday, okay? Adding 58 billion to its market cap.
Adding 58 billion dollars to Bitcoin's market cap. Again, $58 billion 3.6% in 5 hours is very, very positive. But if we compare it with this stock, it's very, very small, right? It's very small but it's still positive anyway. The total crypto market is 77 billion. So 58 is for Bitcoin, the rest is for various old coins, divided into how many millions of old coins? Over the same period, 100 million dollars worth of shorts have been liquidated in the last 4 hours.
So shorts get wacked, longs who scalp long get maximum gains upwards. Okay, but once again what we just discussed is very very very sad if we look at it, we zoom out, yes, we zoom out, we look at the macro, it only added 58 billion, something that crypto veterans like me and maybe some of you have been waiting for, clarity x, one of the most positive bills for crypto, only added 58 billion when the announcement was issued, maybe not everyone was on board, maybe the liquidity hadn't all arrived, maybe the volume hadn't all arrived. But Ash Crypto said, "The biggest crypto bill in history just advanced to the Senate."
Yes, so it still has to be voted on by the Senate, right? What can you do now?
Really applied, really carried out by the government. Stocks just made a new all time high at 7.5 by the way 7.5k yeah. Yesterday we discussed it was still at 7.4. 2 days ago, if I'm not mistaken, it was 7.3. After that 3 4 5 days ago it was 7.2, now it's already 7.5 huh. And BTC still can't break 83.
Can someone explain this? There are a lot of people starting to post this on Twitter that I see. And what I can tell you all, perhaps you're also confused, is why Bitcoin can't go past 83 or it's like someone is suppressing the price. Yes, honestly I don't have a reason, not a reason I don't have an answer as to why Bitcoin can't break 83. But so far what we've covered on this channel is that if the cycles are going to go down, we have to be wise or at least I have to be wise, I have to be wise not to fight the cycles.
At least you have to go through the cycles first. Because what we've said on this channel has become a saying, it's cycles that control prices, not news, not sentiment, and definitely not retail. There are those who still don't believe that this is ah this is occult science, black magic and others and ah all of these are all cycle lows that you are looking for, it's all a coincidence and maybe a coincidence but this is one proof that these two, one cryptobill and two stocks, make a new all time that should add volume logically it should add additional volume to bitcoin but bitcoin, sir, how many days have it been now, we'll see the charting, okay, if I'm not mistaken, it's been more than a week, almost 2 weeks, and until now it can't break 83, it's still in the range. Okay, next news again.
Plus, this is yesterday's post that we covered in the previous live stream.
Bitcoin was forecasted by Calhi, yes.
So prediction markets to go as low as 57,000 this year. This year, yes, this year, 57,000 R at the end of this year.
So at least it's not clear whether this is a sentiment game or insider trading.
Kelsi predicts how many, eh, the majority, huh? I don't know what the numbers are, but you can see for yourself that the percentage is high at the top and then suddenly drops down. I don't know why the manipulation is happening, I don't know either. I don't have an answer for all of you.
57,000 this year. Interesting. It's May 15th now. Yesterday we discussed Kevin Wars, we also discussed a little about inflation, and we also discussed a little about what Kevin Wor will do or what we project Kevin WS will do after he becomes chairman. Okay, and today officially, Kevin WS will be appointed as chairman, will be officially appointed as chairman and will start his first job, will do his first job, his first task as chairman starting today too. So if you don't know the project for Kevin Worsh, the projection for the Fed heading into the third quarter of this year, you can watch the last live stream because honestly, the discussion is long and wide and I don't want to repeat it here. The bottom line is that Kevin W will be the market's savior. At least that's what we're seeing heading into the third quarter and fourth quarter. And we'll see Q coming, the money printer coming. Sorry, money printing, yeah. The money printer arrived, but it had no legs. E-printing comes and simultaneously resets all markets before we get to a massive bull market, super cycle, and so on. It's up to you what you call it in the next cycle. But for that to happen, the money printer will be turned on in the markets and at the same time, the economic conditions in America will have to get worse than now. So he came in at a very, very good time where under Donald Trump there was definitely influence behind the scenes.
By the way, the Federal Reserve today, the 15th, suddenly bought additional Treasury Bills without any announcement. Well, the funny thing is that this is Jerome Paul's last day as chairman and this is Kevin Worsh's first day as chairman. It immediately went up to 453 billion dollars, yeah. It's now one month after the April 15 liquidity event.
Jerome Powell was concerned about 1 month ago. Do you remember whether we projected or what or what we discussed at that time? On the 15th, there will be something that Jerome Powell is afraid of, right? It turns out that the market is all pumping upwards. April 15th was when everything started to go up. The funny thing is that the liquidity concern is done internally. This is actually a liquidity concern.
Yet he is still printing and injecting liquidity despite the stock market going vertical. Yes, stocks, stock prices are going up, making it vertical upwards, yes.
But Jerome Paul still seems afraid of something. That's why he injected Treasury bills, injecting the bond market with the previous all-time high quantity. All time high that we have seen before, yes, I mean May 15, May 15 today is Jerome Powell's last day. We will see if Kevin WSH stops this madness. Yes, if you don't know what Treasury Bills or the bond market are, what are they? If the pumping stops, if the pumping stops, we are vulnerable to seeing a crash in the capital market, a crash in the stock market and the entire market, which is what we call a hard landing here.
Why is it called a hard landing? For example, it's like you're on a plane, this plane, for example, has a soft landing when the pilot is skilled. So it's like you're going down smoothly, no turbulence, no shaking. A hard landing is when the plane is like this. After that it was destroyed, there was a fire. I shouldn't have said this, because next week I'm going on a trip, what do you call it? But for example, it's like this. hard landing is like this, soft landing is like this. And we 've discussed it many times, maybe hundreds of times, that Jerome Powell's job as chairman, eh, in my opinion, at least in the last 10 years, was to keep rates as high as possible to initiate a soft landing.
But what we always see in the markets is that there is never a term for a soft landing. Look for the soft landing I just gave you. the graph is like this, like this, or like this.
Softlining should be closer like this. Look for a graph like this that points to an improving economy.
The answer is none. We always see hard landing, hard landing, hard landing. 1 2 1 2 this too this too this too. Yes, there is no such thing as a soft landing. Even so, the Fed still wants to do it now, right? At least Jerome Powell was still willing to push the soft landing agenda yesterday because that's what Fed has always been targeting. But we know that historically, there has never been a soft landing that has been realized whatsoever.
Earlier we saw Bitcoin pumping and the total crypto market cap pumping. But a few hours later, this was yesterday, 12. 12.00 am, May 15, it fell like dawn, right? It's not dawn, eh, just change the day to 12.00 in the morning. After that a few hours later we saw sorry. Yes, here a few hours later we see all commodities go down.
Wow, why is that? Breaking 400 billion dollars 400 billion dollars. If we compare it, almost 10 times the market cap added to Bitcoin. 400 billion was just wiped out in gold and silver in just 2 hours. Yes, gold fell 1.25%, wiping out 320 billion dollars, silver fell 3.8%. So whatever performance Bitcoin printed in the last 5 hours, it was equaled and even surpassed by silver, but the difference is that silver fell. Wiping out 0 billion dollars.
Wow, why is that? Not only that. We also see at the same time, okay? We also see the bond market spiking super high.
Bond market is spiking super high.
The problem is not just that the two- year and three-month bond markets are all spiking high. We will discuss this further later. This doesn't just happen once, it always happens before you all know what I'm going to say. This always happens before a recession. You can cross-check it yourself, you can check it yourself in 2008. Maybe not in 2020, because the movement was too fast downwards. But in 2008 we always saw an increase in the bond market, at least there was an upward correction before normalization towards the bottom. This is what we said on yesterday's live stream. Kevin WS will be the market's savior because the market must be made chaotic first to be the savior. Yes.
Yes, right? You need an example that I gave to all of you before, that you only use bandages, not what kind of bandage is Hansa Plus if you get injured. You would n't be using Hansa Plus if you weren't injured. Hansa Plus is useless, you won't use it if you don't have any abrasions or wounds. And Kevin Wars is the one who will be the market's Hansa Plus. At least the bond market. If what? If it's the capital market, it's over, GG.
Because we know that the more it goes up, the more the capital market goes down in theory, right? And later when the raid cut comes, what will it actually do? Interest rate cuts, the capital market is not getting better, but everything will be pricing in a recession coming. Okay, that's all I want to say at least for the news.
Now let's get into charting.
Friday's volatility. That's the title I gave for today's live stream. And it shows, yes, yesterday we said Bitcoin, the saying we always say on this channel is that as long as Bitcoin is still above the trendline, there is no need for problems, yes. We shouldn't eh don't expect too many lines okay. A lot of what? News barish bukan news beish eh sentiment barish untuk markets at least untuk bitcoin. But once it goes down, we start to open our minds to bearishness, okay? Yesterday when we were live streaming, Bitcoin was here or there or we don't know where we were yesterday. But the point is already below and I immediately drew the sentiments of people who watched Co Crypto like this, right? This is a normal KC viewer. Is this a weekly cycle?
Is the weekly cycle coming? Is this an advancement towards the weekly cycle?
Has Bitcoin failed? And we said yesterday in the live public you can watch the new live stream yesterday I said it's still too early, we don't know if Bitcoin will actually go down here or if it's still using its time to find a new top. Is there a potential new top or maybe it has already reached the top, but it's just ranging towards the weekly cycle that we have projected since October? Or not, if we want to be realistic, we have been actively projecting since maybe March, or since February. Okay. And what we saw was the volatility on Friday coming in and we saw Bitcoin pumping over the news that we just discussed. news namely ee where is this, how come it wasn't there earlier? Oh, this is a clarity act, huh? Use clarity act. After that, Bitcoin made at least a daily price, but it hasn't closed yet. Now I'm making, eh, I'm still trading, but now I'm making candles above the uptrend, right?
Was yesterday a fake out of Bitcoin? Was yesterday a liquidation hunt? to go down for people who are longing, okay?
Maybe people went long here and then maybe they put a stop loss here and everything got wiped out. And are we going to continue higher now? It looks like that, huh?
Especially if we see if we go down to 2 hours or 1 hour. We rarely ee what is it called? Eh, it's down to 1 hour to do the analysis.
But I just want to let you all know that all of this downward movement has been fully reversed upwards and even though it is going down, this is something normal because this movement, you all know, is too fast and creates a lot, not a lot, at least one big one, yes, fair value gap, yes, and what we see now is that the fair value gap is now being tested to the fullest with 1 2 3 4 5 6 candles in a row, so 6 hours, yes, a total of 6 hours to test in the fair value gap. And what we see is that higher prices are like this. And what's more, if we zoom out a lot, these two lows on the 1-hour time frame are also supported by our higher macro uptrend. So once again it looks like Bitcoin is at least still bullish right now.
Yesterday it seemed like it was just a fakeout, it seemed like it was just a fakeout, but the indicators and other charts said otherwise, in fact the indicators assessed that this breakout had gone down, I don't really believe in this indicator, at least now, because as I said before, I prefer to see the cross above, not below the green line. But if it goes down, it goes down. This means that the momentum is at least now for research downwards, right? If you're bullish on Bitcoin, you'll want to see a repeat of the DSS breakout reset something like this. So when the price goes up and down, the DSS bracket goes down. So, the decline in the assess bret indicator indicates that even though the momentum is declining, at least the price is still supported upwards. So, in other words, even though buyers are starting to weaken, there are no longer any, but prices are still being set and those prices are still being bought. At least that's how it is, rather than like this, the price drops and no one wants to buy. If the price goes up, fewer people will buy. That's all. That's basically the explanation. Okay.
So what do we see now? What do we see after that? What I mean is from here, we can see the price going up.
Ee sorry the price is going up, the momentum is also going up. And now we start to see the cross here. And what you want to see as a bullish person is if you want to see the price getting higher, that is, maybe entering 85 and 88 as our upper target, what we have, you want to see this is a repeat of this, yes, in April, mid-April towards, yes, mid-April towards the end of April, yes, and coincidentally now we are entering the middle, yes, so the cross is more or less the same, yes, plus minus 3 days in April, now we get a cross on the 12th, yes, on the 12th, it was even plus minus 6 days, yes, and more or less this is what you want to see, yes, but again, what I have said many times, almost every live, we are actively looking until now, yes, we are still actively looking for weekly cyclones, we don't know what the price is, we don't know whether the weekly cyclone will only go down here, here, here, or deeper, yes, we don't know if the weekly cyclone should be forced here or even pushed back, yes, the point is in this area and it's quite big, yes, what is the time range in this area, we will see a significant low, the key word is significant, yes, we want to see a pump, sorry, there is a fairly deep dump, at least in my opinion, yes, for to take out this low or to retest this low. But our base case in this channel never changes because this weekly cyclow has eh sorry because cycle fury said that the weekly cycle low always becomes a low which can be said to be higher, yes, the level is more important, we can see the vulnerability, especially in the previous Bitcoin daily cycle, one or two previous daily cycles, at least one of them will be broken, yes, and following that theory, we have a daily cycle here, we just have to apply it to the price of bitcoin, meaning that the upcoming weekly cycle will break the price of the previous daily cycle. In other words, we expect Bitcoin at least in our base case to be lower than 60-65 or around 65,000. Okay, this is something we've repeated many times but where is the proof? It seems like it's still going up and up.
We've been saying this for a long time, we've been saying that we expected the weekly cyclone to arrive in mid-May, but we had to force it back. We want to, or at least I will be more open-minded to look for a weekly cycle in June if the price increases at that time and this is not a local top. At that time the price was still above here and we expected something like this to come. It didn't come. Okay, and it turns out we get higher prices on top of this because this price is going up.
Because previously we expected it to be like this towards the 28th, I expected it to be like this. Coming now towards June. So there is potential for a new weekly cycle to come in June. So end of May heading into June.
So I don't like it. But maybe we should push back a little. It's a bit late, but overall, it's still within our weekly candle like this. to our weekly range like this. But I think it should be placed at the very end to find the weekly cycle. Okay, and I've also said in previous live streams, previous live streams too, that Bitcoin is actually a benchmark for Bitcoin to continue to pump.
You just have to look at markets that are bigger than Bitcoin. Namely stock index, namely the SP index and NASDAQ. If they both continue to rise, if they both continue to pump, the potential is quite large, yes. Even though we just got a divergence yesterday, yes, here since here 1 2 3 we got a red candle but the stock continues to rise even though there is a divergence for the last 3 days, the last 4 days, we are at least in general, in general, it is still batting if the stock continues to rise, Bitcoin is also prone to rising as well, yes, it will rise too. Okay, so Bitcoin has once again given us a fake out, at least for now. Now we move on to the stock that we just said is starting to break out.
We just said that as long as shares can pump up, OK? Bitcoin also has the potential to pump. Yes, Bitcoin is indeed pumping, maybe because of the news or maybe because it has been priced in. However, Bitcoin pumped 3.6% to 82. It went back to reclaiming 82, but now it's back down to 80, right? Make a lower low on a smaller time frame. Stocks for the first time since we drew the line here, yes, since April 23rd, hm, since April 23rd we have seen a movement that has crossed this uptrend, yes, for the daily candle at least, yes. So far, we've had more or less the same outlook for stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, namely, we have a daily cycle low.
for stocks at the end of May as well. So what we want to see is something like this. By the way, all time is new. So we have to raise it again to above 75, okay? Earlier we said we wanted to see something more or less like this for stocks. I expect this super high movement that has been pushed by the stock since March 30th, we will see a correction that I don't want to say is quite deep, but I expect at least a correction of at least 5% of the stock price and now it's only a 1% correction, maybe 5%, more or less, maybe it will go back down here because this movement is too high, too fast and too bullish in my opinion, and it really needs a fairly deep correction to normalize the market price. And for the first time, once again I'll repeat this, we see that there are actually two red candles that have broken through this line. There's one here too, but you can see for yourself that this one closes higher than the one above.
The close creates a hammer upwards and the next day creates an additional green candle. So, will this create an additional red candle down below or will it close like this?
We don't know, right? Now it's still 6:00 am still 6:00 pm at least this recording 6 hours later we will see there is a close candle, yes it should be at least on the day for WIB, yes, so it's interesting for us to see this if and if this really makes red, yes, there is also the potential that tomorrow it will also make red because this is the first candle, yes, at least to break the previous trend line, we have a trend line more or less like this and this also prints two red lines before the increase, eh, before there is a new increase upwards before we have to shift this. So I expect that if this red goes through to the bottom, it will also be red tomorrow. And that starts to become ee starts to become a new question, namely is this the top for us for the daily cycleow? Has the daily cyclone arrived? Has it arrived? Uh, sorry, the decline for the daily cycle has arrived. Especially if you are a member, you know that this and that are right translated are very, very late in the daily cycle count.
So will the decline be super sharp? Yes, that is the question we will answer.
in 2 weeks sorry in one yes 2 weeks it's true in the next 2 weeks yes. Bitcoin is the same now. So the application, eh, what's the name of the logic, can also be done here. The daily cycle low for Bitcoin is here. The next daily cycle low is here, yes, it's around 60 today, but it's 65, or even 60 days. It's 60 days, that's more or less 59.
You can see for yourself that this is the right trend. So the top is now searched in the middle right section.
the line. So, is Bitcoin going to go down in value this quickly? Moreover, we have two daily cycles at the same time, weekly and daily at the same time. So it will be very interesting what will happen in the next 2 weeks. At least for cycles we still expect a decline. But once again we have targets above, yes. If Bitcoin still wants to rise, it will reach 85 and 88. And I will change my whole view if Bitcoin can break through 85 and 88 and retest this as support. yes. We're going to change our whole outlook, change our whole base case if Bitcoin can go above this. But as long as Bitcoin still can't break through to the top, especially if it goes down to a lower time frame, there's something unique, right? If I went down to 1 hour ago, I forgot to mention that Bitcoin is currently being suppressed at this price.
At the same time, if I'm not mistaken, if we move up to daily and we, Sir, use the 200 moving average exponential moving average, this is currently at a fairly important resistance for Bitcoin, right? You can't go above, you can't touch 85 and 88, you can't really.
But once again, if this or that hasn't been broken through, retested, and hasn't risen further, I do n't think we need to change our theory because everything is continuing what Bitcoin has done in the previous cycle and the cycle before that.
Moreover, cycle fre also said that we will go down to two, not one, but two it seems. E two cycles which are quite important, yes. So it will be interesting to see how the next 2 weeks will go.
Now we move to Masiw. Because this is an asset that I've been saying, "Ah, enough textbooks, enough eh enough theory, enough following the theory that the daily cyclone is coming. The daily cyclone, sorry daily e, the price drops towards the daily cycle range. The daily cyclone is coming, the daily cyclone makes the price pump up. But in the last 1 2 3 4 days, gold doesn't want to go up anymore.
It gives us a decline.
additional.
Hmm. In fact, it's very close to the daily cyclone that we drew yesterday here. Like that. And you all know that this is something normal or at least for people who have been around for a long time, this is something normal because the daily cycle is often retested, like this, retest like this, maybe diettest. So, retesting is normal.
But what we don't want to see if this daily cycle is still going to be held is that this retest has to give us higher prices. It's that simple for the daily cycle, the problem that I always say is that we also have a weekly cycle at the end of May. So is this weekly cycle, has the price been priced in?
This weekly cyclone will fall towards an additional weekly cycleβeh, sorry, a lower weekly cyclone, or will we bounce from this top?
Again, we'll get the answer in just a few days for gold. And if this really happens, by the way, it's heading towards the weekly cycle and we'll enter a bear market for gold for the first time, so we can call it a bear market during this invalidation.
If this falls first, it will be the first case we'll see, where gold will fall first, towards its respective cycle lows at the end of May. Stocks have only fallen one candle, Bitcoin.
You can see for yourself what Bitcoin is going to do. And gold has already fallen 1, 2, 3, or 4 candles. So, if it's true, if it's true, all assets will fall towards the weekly cycle and there's nothing like this that doesn't exist, we push the weekly cycle back, gold will fall first. How come I've never seen gold fall before the others.
Usually, we see Bitcoin fall first or other assets fall first. But it's very interesting.
Again, I don't have an answer for you. Everyone. I can't tell you whether this is going to the moon or whether it's really going to fall. Because this is something we've discussed many times, almost every live stream.
Gold has two directions. There's a weekly cycle low invalidation downwards, or it could rise upwards as our target, which is above this. Yes, I still believe this target will be reached, at least touched once, before rolling over downwards. But again, this daily cycle retest is something normal for us to see for the cycle. Okay, that's all I wanted to say in today's live stream. If you have any questions, oh, I also want to mention that hyper liquid immediately broke through the resistance. One very thick green candle. After that, it created another green candle. This is something we, or I, uh, I saw last. It was here. Set. Set. After that, there was another one here, but not that high.
This one is higher than this and higher than this. The momentum is already there, what we want to see now for hyper liquid is a continuation upwards. But that can only be done if Bitcoin is successful. The others Not going anywhere. Ethereum seems to be going down. Ethereum hasn't changed once again. Making a base. Solana doesn't know where it's going. XRP doesn't know where it's going either. It's just been ranging overall since February. Just ranging. Solana seems to be the same, in terms of making a higher low, a higher base. Solana is also the same, just ranging, in fact, it's at the top now it's going down, selling off short positions are being opened a lot, all sorts of things. But if I'm not mistaken, I'll just get straight to the point because there must be someone asking about Z Cash's price action. It's not bad, but so far this increase is too high. The pullback will also be the same depth. Not the same depth as going straight down. But at least the pullback will be felt by people who missed 19% from the last week. Okay, that's all I want to say in today's live stream.
If you have any questions, just put them in the live chat. Sorry, there's no live cam today, no camera. Why? Because I've started packing for vacation. So, behind me there are a lot of other people's stuff. So, I don't want to, I don't want to show that on the live stream. But even though I'm not on camera, I'm still there in voice, in voice.
Finally, we are so back. So back. That is what it is. Is there a Q&A K? There is. Now we are starting the Q&A. If you have questions, just put them here. Just put them in the live chat.
If you put them in the comments, your comments won't be read at least live. Because that's how the live system is. 17600 I just want to remind you all.
17600. We are so dead. We are so dead. Nothing. We are so back.
We are so cooked. I swear, guys.
Swear.
16 6 eh sor 17 600.
I'm the one who staked USDT beik.
Congratulations. Sare if you just hold USDT, just hold USDT, I want to give You guys, how much profit would you make just holding USDT?
Okay, let's compare it to 17,400. So a few days ago, right? So, around 400 and 600 equals 200 silver. 200 silver divided by 17,400 is about this much.
Multiplied by 100 is about this much. You're up 1.14%.
1.14% just holding USDT. Not staking, not putting it in the protocol, not just putting it in devy. 1.14% in less than a week. Is n't that crazy? You get 1,145. 1.15% to yield to rupiah in less than a week. Put the same money in a bank, into a deposit. You get this much in 200 years.
It's so bad, right? And we've already discussed it, I even made a post yesterday. Yesterday, yesterday, right?
If this isn't it, where is it? I'll find it for you all, okay? Pause. This is May 12 by the Way 3 days ago.
The Rupiah touched 17,500 per dollar, its weakest level of all time.
Just 1 month ago, the Rupiah was still at 17,000. Here's the proof, 17,000. R April 12, I made this May 12. Okay.
Inflation increased by 500 perak or 3% in 1 month. Remember 3% in just 1 month, but in the last 7 weeks and 7 days you got 1.14 1.15 on the Rupiah. Imagine if Indonesia is experiencing hyperinflation? Will our fate be like Zimbabwe?
It's so over. We are so dead.
But once again, all we can do is pray. When will the USD reach R,000? Hopefully not soon. But honestly, if the US DO reaches 20,000, I think I'll start withdrawing dollars to Rupiah.
The problem, guys, when we're going through inflation like this, you don't know. When we're going through inflation like this, everything goes up, guys.
Yes, maybe we're fine. Maybe you guys I thought, "Oh, my dollars are good. Hey, I'm holding the dollar, but the rupiah is weakening. I have an upward value." But when you convert it back to rupiah, everything will be priced upwards. So in the end, it's the same. That's how fiat currency works. Well, in other words, maybe I'll just draw a picture here. You hold dollars, right?
You hold 100 perak. 100 perak, suddenly becomes 1000. Let's say 10x, 10x your money. You say, "Wow, 10x is not bad." I just withdraw from dollars to rupiah now. Not bad 10X, right? But when you withdraw it back to rupiah, even though it's true that your money in rupiah becomes 10X, but you forget all the goods, the price of this and that is also 10X on average. The price of oil, chilies, chicken, various things, salt and so on. The price of ee Gojek, the price of Grab, the price of gasoline is also 10X on average. Not all of them, but some are only three, some are only four.
I also use numbers That's just random.
10X is impossible. It's impossible, it could take decades. But just an example. So in the end, it's the same. That's why fiat currency is so strange. Fiat currency, or more precisely, forex. If you trade forex, sorry, not trading. Forex trading is long and short, eh, pips. Forex, you just hold dollars, you hold them long term, and you immediately e with the expectation that you will exchange them for rupiah in the future with the expectation that your rupiah will continue to appreciate. It's never profitable, in my opinion. Some say it's profitable, some say, maybe I have proof that I'm profitable. You're the one who's never experienced it. Maybe you're right.
But so far, at least what I've experienced is not profitable at all.
Not forex, sorry, not forex. Fiat exchange, fiat exchange, is not profitable.
It's better to put it into a protocol, better to put it into defi, put dollars to work, get dollars back, then later get it. In the end, you only get e, then ee exchange to the rupiah. Well, that's still okay. But again, that's why people always say that the most important thing in your life is that your salary must exceed, if possible, inflation. Right? You've always heard this from any finance YouTuber, whether foreign or domestic, even Indonesian.
This is important. Why? Because if your salary is this much but inflation is this much, you won't be able to survive. And that's what we're going through now. Not talking about salaries, but talking about the rupiah, or the dollar we just talked about.
Our rupiah is currently experiencing massive inflation of 500 perak in the last month. And that was only 3 days ago when I made it on the 12th.
Now it's up 100 perak. So it's not 3% anymore, it's 600 perak.
600 perak, and maybe 3.5% or 3.2% in just one month. It's over. Once again. We are so dead. We Nothing. We are so back.
I don't know what to ask. Because you talk about the same thing every day and the market doesn't change much. Yes.
I've told you all.
If you think like this, if you have thoughts like this, you're already smart. Yes, so to be honest, for the majority, maybe not the majority, maybe half, maybe half of you who think like this, we just need to get through the weekly cyclone.
We just need to get through the next two weeks. And if Bitcoin comes... eh sorry, if Bitcoin's weekly cycle low comes at the right time, we can say okay. If it's above, we can say okay, the momentum is there. There's a possibility of making higher prices again and there's a possibility of this or that bottom. There's a possibility or we force it here or we force it here or here, ma'am. But I don't like it if it comes lower, much lower, much lower, we can say okay, the bottom is probably in. So all the scenarios we've discussed and we've repeated them many times. So we just have to wait for Bitcoin to Where is the bottom? And because I have a feeling, not just a feeling, but it's banked by cycles that there will be a bottom or if there is, there will be a significant dump.
Trump releases 162 alien cases, what do you think?
Yes, this is something I've heard on Telegram many times. I've also been tagged on Twitter many times. Why aliens? Honestly, guys. If you need an additional reason for why Bitcoin could fall to a weekly cyclone, why stocks could fall to their daily cyclone, yes. And if aliens are really the reason. I can only say, guys, whatever the reason, the weekly cyclone has arrived. The reason is aliens, well, what can be done.
If you don't know what alien cases are, Trump, if I'm not mistaken, said that aliens actually exist and have actually been researched by the American government, they've been studied, and there are some aliens living among us, yes, they said that, true or not, honestly, I don't really know and I do n't really care, honestly, the point is, I want to see the cycles come at the right time, whatever the reason, whatever the aliens want. Even if there's an alien invasion tomorrow, what are we all doing? Killed by aliens. I just want to look at the chart, with what?
With my leg amputated, my arm amputated. I look at my computer, I look at the chart. Oh yeah, the weekly cycle is coming.
Okay, great.
That's all I care about.
I don't really care about the rest. When will BTC return to its all-time high? I don't think so, no, not this month, not next month, not in 3 months, not in 4 months. I think I'll extend your time frame to maybe at least, at least, the earliest of next year. That all-time high is very, very difficult for Bitcoin to achieve. Moreover, what we just discussed in the news, I've already deleted it. We just discussed that Bitcoin has passed its most bullish bill in its entire life.
Yes, this adds to the full adoption of the crypto market. After that, SP also helped make the all-time high new again and again. But Bitcoin is still stuck in a range.
Where is the range, why can't I really see the range? The range is here. This is Bitcoin's current range.
Is this range positive? Is this range negative? Why is it most like that?
That's it. This range is probably more than 4 hours visible because there's more data. Just adjust it a little, it's okay, that's all. This is the range that Bitcoin makes, up and down, up and down.
Then it goes down again. If there's a drop, if there's another drop, it'll go down again.
Something that's a bit confusing for me.
It's very high. Then it goes down deep.
Then there's a candle. This is a godprint.
How much is this? How much is this percentage?
2%. How much is this?
Same 3%, 2%. Then there's another one here. There's another one here too.
Then there's a godprint downward. This has happened repeatedly. So I feel like there's a conflict between buyers and sellers.
Buyers don't want the price to go below here, sellers don't want the price to go above 82, maximum. Yesterday we made a print of the highest price last week at 82, 883, with lower and lower highs, it seems.
So maybe that's it. Well, I don't know, it's interesting for BTC.
We'll see how it moves now. It's not going anywhere, to be honest.
Everywhere. Since when? Since early May, yes. The entire month of May so far, Bitcoin has only been ranging. Meanwhile, stocks like this have seen a super positive increase. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones are back above 50,000. The Dow Jones is back to 50,000.
The Dow is back to 50,000.
It is what it is. Again, there's nothing we can do. We can only watch and monitor the continued price movement. What do you think about Nvidia's shares, which continue to rise parabolically every year?
NVIDIA is moving in, uh, AI right now. It has an AI narrative, and in my opinion, during Nvidia, or the entire AI bubble, what is it like? uh, as you know, you should know, Nvidia invests in this company, for example, and this company invests in this company. This company invests again in Nvidia. Nvidia also invests in this company, Nvidia also invests in this company, this company invests here. It's destroyed, it's destroyed, it has n't broken, and what will happen if this doesn't break? If this cycle doesn't break, that is, as long as the stock remains positive, it will continue, uh, they will continuously print green candles.
Well. Coincidentally, it seems like Nvidia will post its earnings when?
Let's see, it should be like this.
When?
May 20th, right? May 20th. So in how many days? In 5 days, we'll see Nvidia's earnings release on May 20th, very close to May 28th, which we expect to see a weekly cycle low of 20,000 coming soon. What about JPY?
If you want to see a snapshot, we haven't discussed it publicly yet.
Because yesterday, I wanted to discuss it publicly, but there wasn't anything, nothing significant at all.
We discussed it extensively with members, but so far, I don't think there's anything to worry about. Why is BTC in the weekly cycle area, but the price action tends to be resilient at 79 and 81? Cycle-wise, is this a sign that the market is absorbing supply before a major reversal? It's possible.
But I want to give you the opposite perspective. Okay. If you say Bitcoin is supported at 79 and 80, Bitcoin is also resisted at 83.
So what does that mean? You can see from below, you can also see from above.
We just discussed the stock, yes, that this just made a red candle.
So, in my opinion, once again, in my opinion, the weekly cyclops will come, guys. It will definitely come. But where it will come, we don't know. And we expect it because it's already trending right and has entered two cycles in the window, we expect what we've already talked about. Between the price being like this, which I wanted, it didn't happen. So, between then, we draw it like this.
If this doesn't happen either, then it won't happen. This means we could get something like this. This is something no one wants to see, right? At least the bullish ones. Bullish.
Bullish people don't want to see this happen. Maybe some of you bullish people are angry that I drew something like this. But we've seen this many times.
Here, this one, no? But here it is. This one, no, only twice. This is the worst. This is the second worst. This is more like this, more like a bleed downwards. Ble to zero.
There's a potential for us to see something like this. So, once again, we can roll yesterday, which is not happening. Yes. So we'll just skip it. We can roll like this, which we don't know whether it will happen or not, or we can get something like this when the time comes on the 28th and immediately fall down. Where I still don't believe this happened because I think there has to be news that immediately makes it go down.
But again, I don't know which.
The point is, it's already in the window, we have to expect an open mind. At least there's a weekly cycle, you know.
That's all, really. I don't know where the price will go. If Bitcoin goes up tomorrow, then go ahead and go up even more. The bottom is already in at 60,000. The order book is really thick at 75 and 60, unless there's another FTX crash, maybe it could touch 60,000 again. If you look at the liquidation hit map, it looks like we don't have time.
E, I'll just continue with the Q&A. DCA or time the market for now? Why DCA or time the market for now? That's up to you. We've talked about it many times. I've already addressed your questions about the CA thing. Should I wait for the bottom? All? Free.
Honestly, if you want to DCA now, please think that Bitcoin will rise higher and maybe the cycle theory will break for the first time or the weekly cycle will be pushed and printed higher. Yes, that means you think this is the bottom. Once again, please go ahead. Free. You want to DCA now if you think this will go down, but I want to DCA now so I don't miss the train, that's fine too, but the important thing is that I'll tell you my game plan. After this weekly low comes, I'll just move from here to here.
Because we expect nothing to change, at least for the long term, where so far we're still following the movement of the cycles, namely swing 2, swing 3, swing 4, swing 2.
Now we're passing the apex in my opinion. Uh, looking for a local top, yes, towards swing du uh sorry, towards swing 3. Now we're looking for the top of swing 2.
The top will be at 88, 80, 90, it seems free.
But what we want to see is the continuation downwards if the cycles are still going to repeat.
That's all Actually.
Why did Circle respond that they were acquiring USDH? USDH, yes, to hype it up, using 100% USDC?
I don't know. Honestly, it's not important because I think this news will be positive in the short term, and that's probably why Hyperquid can rise so high.
But in a year, I do n't think it will change.
But Circle is a good company, yes, its shares are currently plummeting.
But the last attack was prepared.
I don't want this to happen. I really, really, really didn't project this to happen, guys. I have to repeat this several times, I think, so you do n't have any idea, this is a base case. I didn't expect this to happen at all. I didn't expect it to happen because I think the market is fine, heading towards the daily cycle, heading towards at least the daily cycle of stocks. Stocks will slowly correct towards the daily cycle and will all be bought. Liquidation, eh, longs will all be taken. Liquidity will be taken and it will go higher.
Yes, I expect the same for Bitcoin.
I didn't expect this to come. Okay, I didn't expect it at all. But what we want to see is buyer exhaustion, which is when Buyers have weakened, weakened at least in this area, and we have to attack buyers or bids at the bottom. That's all. That's why someone said earlier, "The bottom has arrived," the order book is very thick at 75 to 60. This means we will attack buyers at 75 to 60. This means that if the bits run out here and sellers take control, we will roll over to at least 75 and 60.
That's the logic of the order book.
Well, once again, I don't expect, for example, from what he said, I don't expect everything to be taken immediately because there will be huge resistance from below. Sorry, there will be huge support from below that will drive the price up because every order book trigger adds a new increase in Bitcoin.
As long as everything flips red, flips short. But again, this is only, in my opinion, it only comes once every 10 years. Once every 5 years, once per fall cycle.
Okay, a few more questions before we end. Is your bottom target still the same, Koko? Still not? There's a change.
Once again, remember 2 months ago you watched this live stream, you watched the K Crypto Second Channel live stream. You said, "Hey, you heard me say this live stream, this channel is the most boring channel." Why? Because if you watch it one month from now, two months from now, our projections won't change. Yes, this channel is the most consistent channel in my opinion. Yes, there is no Indonesian channel, no Indonesian crypto that is more consistent than us. Yes, maybe we could trade wrong, but at least we have a macro project that doesn't change. So far, we've been printing the same thing, which is, yes, we've been printing the same thing. The top of the fourth quarter made 1 2 1, our project towards the market bottom has not changed. And at the same time, if nothing changes, the projected market going forward will also not change. We will see, or as a base case, 400-300 thousand per bitcoin.
Once again, you watch it two months later, as long as Bitcoin doesn't do something like this, for example, our project will remain the same.
Maybe Bitcoin is just like this. Here.
Or maybe just here and there. Our projects shouldn't be different.
That's why I said our channel is the most consistent, but our channel is also the most boring, Nin.
It's too early for DCA now.
Why does your accent sound like a Medan person?
Uh, okay, maybe I'm being a bit edgy. I'm a Medan person, right?
Medan, right. Okay, thanks Ko. You're welcome.
Muhammad Nur said, "If the weekly cycle forms outside the range, does it fail?"
Oh, this is a good question that we've covered many times.
Is it okay if the weekly cycle forms outside the range? The answer is yes, because your weekly cycle has a tolerance of 2 weeks ahead and 2 weeks behind. The problem is that the weekly cycle low for Bitcoin, at least what we've been looking for in Bitcoin, is it prone to falling in the time frame that we've projected.
Okay, this one fell right on. This one fell right in the middle, and this one fell a bit late.
You can see that this almost closed the range, it fell at the beginning. It almost failed. It's not a failure, it almost fell outside. It fell just right. There are those who still think that this is a weekly cycle. the cycle. But we still expect this to be the case and we are still considering if this is a retest. It also falls right in the middle too. And now we've passed 1 2 3. This is hiken ash so it can't work.
We've gone through this much and the weekly cyclone is already about to end. At least initial range. But what we have also said, I have said many times before, is that we are still open minded about making a weekly cycle in June.
OK, but that will make e for the first time, that will make the weekly cycle out of range. counting, yes. A week or 2 is still tolerable. I'm still tolerant, but it's not nice if it does n't fit the first time.
That's all actually. I also have to let you know that this is our own count. If you look at other cycle traders, like Bob Lucas, UV Crypto, Hamel Finance, for example, they all have their own cycle counts. So you can check which ones are suitable and which ones are not.
Johan Leanya, how come if a recession happens later, not now? Will it happen quickly? Yes, because the 10-year US Treasury yield and inflation are still quite high. Yes, this is what we just discussed at the beginning. If a recession happens, there will be no news, there will be no preparation, right? The preparation is now, guys.
Believe it or not? No one announced a recession in 2008.
No one announced a recession in 2020. Yes, people were just shocked, wow, it turns out the entire market is down.
Why? Wow, it turns out everyone has to stay home. What about the market? Look at the market, wow, everything has dropped drastically. In 2000, no one announced it either. No one will announce it. We're going to have a recession. The preparation time is from here to here. Your preparations are too late, everything is destroyed, the same from here to here. Your preparations are too late, everything is destroyed. This is also the same. This is also the same.
Yes, this is the longest in my opinion because as we just said, Jerome Paul has maximized his duties as the Fed to carry out a soft landing. Yes, but it's clear that the soft landing still doesn't work until now. So we expect h The landing ard comes at the end of the 3rd quarter maybe. At the end of the 3rd quarter. In the middle of the 3rd quarter at least in July at the earliest. We've talked about this before, we've discussed it many times. At least a month, at least July, we will see the rate cuts start to go down again, I think. At least the printing is starting to turn on.
The printer starts to restart.
This is the earliest but don't expect it.
Oh, when we get in here, Qi comes. Let's go. Yes, you can't get it like this, just turn on the money printer here. That's November 2026. But I do n't think it will be as long as April 200-202. It might be more realistic like this.
If Indonesia were like Zimbabwe, they would move countries. Tapin country to where? Zimbabwe.
Let the conditions be the same.
The market won't give you what you expect. There could be two more bars, two more slams. Still. There could be two more slams. Two more slams. What are you doing? The market won't give you what you expect.
What do I expect?
For what assets I don't know either.
But I want to comment a little on what he actually said.
So this market and this might be the last question, this market is full of various expectations. There are those who still say that we have reset the cycle. There are those who still believe in your cycle. There are those who still think that Bitcoin will run higher. Bitcoin is making a super cycle, huh? There are people who believe in various things. Okay. Some believe that we should bleed ee bleed longer like this.
Various things, yes. But no one knows who is right. And if you have what? If you have thoughts like this, you won't get what you expect. Because why?
Because this is the majority opinion, for example, or because this has already been projected by other people.
Retail will never be right. Because if retail really exists, it seems like there's an imbalance in the relationship between smart market makers and others, right? So, retailers are often wrong and market makers are always right, right? But once again, there are so many projects that it's impossible for all of them to be wrong. Do you understand? Sometimes the people with the most voices or the ideas with the most voices are the ones most likely to be wrong.
That's what we've always seen, at least in the last 2 years, if you enter the market. This is something I said this is something that has been projected. In fact, if I weren't here to talk about the four year cycle, there would be other people who would talk about the four year cycle. Or if not, I wouldn't talk about this following a four year cycle.
So is it really going to go down like this or is there going to be an increase like this?
We don't know. I don't know at all. Once again, I am not a shaman. I don't have a crystal ball in my room that can tell me where Bitcoin will go tomorrow, where it will go, where it will go. Yes, there are so many projections that we don't know who is right.
But only when it happens will we know who is right. And in my opinion it all depends on the market maker. But we can and we can also draw the conclusion that oh okay, if the trend line breaks, we have to be careful, right? If the trend and break of structure continue to trend downwards, we have to be open-minded.
If the trend has created a red candle for 3 consecutive days or 4 consecutive days with increasing volume, we must ask whether this is a reversal or not. So it started like that. So it builds up if, for example, we are wrong or we are right, right?
and it's as easy as taking that logic and applying it to this fre cycle we've already printed the weekly cycle is correct 1 2 3 4 5 this is low so we don't need to enter 1 2 3 4 5 times before and everything comes in this accurate range. So why should we change to another theory?
Meanwhile, while we've been talking about us, I've also already told you guys, showcased to all of you. Since the October decline we've been drawing this yellow box, yes. So, what we expect is that even if there is an opportunity, it might not come, maybe at a price below 60 it won't come again.
But this is what we should expect because it was like that before too.
So, why do we keep changing our theories again and again? Why do we keep changing conversations, changing theories? Even though this is something that has worked for us. Maybe it's not for you. Maybe when you just entered you thought, "Ah, this is supernatural."
Ah, I'm lazy. I believe in Moon Face more. This is what works for us in a bull market, and I have no other reason why it won't work in a bull market, because it's been proven in stocks and elsewhere. If this clearly works in bull and bear, yes.
So now we just have to wait for what we've been talking about all this time. It's been Yaping for 2 months, 3 months in a row it really happened. And if it's wrong, okay, we'll just start analyzing, okay, maybe there's momentum to go up or maybe if it goes down drastically, then this is the bottom. Maybe all the continued movements are just sideways towards ee, it's just sideways like this, but at the end of the 6 months it's just like that, and remember, we're still in a recession, but so even if this doesn't go down towards the next weekly cycle, we also expect a deeper decline than I think, than this, which really makes sentiment very, very bearish, and that's where we see a new bottom, but once again, this is all just a theory that we apply. It could be wrong, 60,000 could not be taken anymore, and this could be the bottom.
But from everything we've just told you so far, at least for now, Bitcoin is still below the resistance, both at the 85 and 88 moving averages, and even the most bullish news still won't be able to increase the price of Bitcoin. At least now it can go up to 88 tomorrow but it could also go down to 60 tomorrow. Who knows? Okay, that's enough of what I wanted to say today.
The Q&A is also finished, right? So, thank you very much to everyone who has joined.
Don't forget to click like, click subscribe if you learn something. If you want to see more of this content, please do. But I just want to let you all know that there will be no content from the 17th to the 22nd. Because I went on vacation, there was no content at all.
After the 23rd, eh, after the 22nd, so on the 23rd, we'll be back again.
Okay, I'm KPTO. Thank you all very much for joining. Take care. Have a good night.
Bye bye.
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