WARNING!! HUGE BITCOIN PRICE TRAP.

追加: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]Bitcoin is about to move huge. The volatility index is right now dropping through the floor. And every time the volatility drops downwards, we end up with a spike upwards. Not necessarily in price, but in volatility. In other words, within 48 hours of this video coming out, the market's probably going to do that. You're freaking me out. And I'm still $9 million short. Can you guess my current account balance?

[00:00:24]Because it started at 2 million and we're still up. And today we've seen the price of Bitcoin getting rejected off of this underside which was support and has turned into resistance. And from this chart that I drew weeks ago at this point, this cup and handle formation that I said isn't a cup and handle and it's more like a head and shoulders breakdown pattern. Well, if we zoom in on that, it's been absolutely unequivocally 100% correct so far. So there should be no dispute as to we go all the way down in theory because I can be wrong. And well, we're going to look at the theory because I've loaded up a bunch of different informations here in today's video. As well as, of course, I've done a bunch of analysis because I don't intend on being wrong. I am in a serious short position. I am sat in a very significant amount of profit and the last thing I want is to give that all back to the market. We've got a double CME gap right now. We've got the larger wickoff accumulation pattern playing out. We've got Bitcoin losing levels of support on its RSI. We've even got the RSI rejecting off of a moving average. If this move is downwards, I will make so much money. So, let's get it right, shall we? And before we crack on, press that like button. We got 430 on yesterday's video. Let's try beat it.

[00:01:33]And also, go over here and press all notifications turned on. And that way, when I upload a video, you'll find out about it instantly and you won't miss the important information. So, let's begin. A little bit of crypto news.

[00:01:44]Crypto pack has been pouring money into Texas primary runoffs as prediction markets favor challenges. Now, I want to start out with the crypto news because it's it's important is pretty soon they'll knock all of this on the head.

[00:01:54]You can't have it where an industry is just buying regulation. So, all these positive and desperate headlines that we're seeing at the moment are likely to end at some point in the next 6 to 12 months. We've seen Satoshi era Bitcoin miners transfer $23 million in Bitcoin to OTC desks. That's long-term holders of Bitcoin exiting the market. We've seen ETFs continually dumping and BlackRock doesn't want to hold anything.

[00:02:15]Now, this is pretty obvious being the ETF flows for all last week were completely negative and Black Rockck was dumping all week. And being realistic, do do you think that the Black Rockck's going to buy back or not? Because normally when people start selling because they're scared of red, it means that more red is to come. And back on the point about Poly Market prediction markets, all this, Indonesia has just banned Poly Market. I'm telling you, globally people don't like gambling and any opportunity to ban another gambling platform, they will do that. So, inevitably, this is going to have some regulation that hasn't happened yet. But before we discuss any more news, I want to explain to you first of all what the pure multiple is and why it's important.

[00:02:50]So the pure multiple takes the amount of Bitcoin that gets mined every day and divides it by the average price across the span of a year. And that gives us this chart here. Now when this chart dips into the green area, it becomes a buy and when this chart dips into the red area, it becomes a sell. You can see this across multiple bull and bare crypto markets. It has played out pretty much perfectly with every time this red line goes into the red area, it becomes a sell. And every time it goes into the green area, it becomes a buy. But if we zoom in on this area and we look at where we're at currently, we are much closer to the green area than we are the red area. And we can also say with confidence pretty much every single bare market 1 2 3 4 and most recently we've not done it yet, but that will be five.

[00:03:34]Every single bare market has resulted in Bitcoin's price at some point in time coming into this green range here with 100% like repetition and accuracy. And we can pretty much confirm we're in a bare market at this stage. So why would you bet against that trend? It doesn't make any sense. And I'm not betting against the trend here. I'm betting in favor of the trend. And keep watching to see how my trades are doing right now.

[00:03:54]But before we get on to that, I also wanted to discuss today the Bitcoin power law. Now the Bitcoin power law is a very interesting one. It basically gives you the fair price and the below price based off of what it is costing to mine Bitcoin right now. But again, something that we see throughout every bare market is pretty much just retesting this line. And we've not retested it yet. And a retest of it is pretty much bang on $55,000, which give or take is very similar to my Elliot wave breakdown pattern that I shown you in the past few days where we've got this fivepoint Elliot wave breakdown pattern that lands somewhere between4 and $50,000. And that also fall in lines with the wickoff accumulation pattern, which when you zoom out on the chart, we've got a $50,000 range down here as the next leg down. And as I've said before, this is I mean optimistic at best, like catastrophic at worst. That's $20,000. The odds of that hanging is pretty much zero.

[00:04:44]>> Oh, thank God.

[00:04:45]>> God, >> it's way more likely that actually the lower point here gets found around that level there because that accurately represents the wickoff accumulation pattern a lot better. However, that there that's still $35,000. And if you're wondering what is this yellow dotted line, well, look back in history.

[00:05:00]Bottom of the bare market. Look back in history. Bottom of the bare market. It's just a simple support level that's plotting out the bottoms of the bare markets. But there is a famous saying, if it makes sense, it makes money. And this is a pattern that we've done so many times before. Just look how similar it is. You could take that, shrink it, overlay it, and that's exactly what happened here. You could take it and shrink it again, and you could say that's exactly also what happened here.

[00:05:23]It's the same. It's the same. It's the same. Fouryear cycles exist. Who would have thought something? It's crypto.

[00:05:28]It's mining. It's But there is some indicators that do suggest, look, we are towards the bottom of this bare market.

[00:05:33]One of which is the Bitcoin supply and its loss in total. But what I'm there's a few things I want to point out about this. First of all, we've not reached the same levels of loss. Normally, you've reached pretty much everybody in a loss at the bottom of a bare market, and we've not reached that level yet. We also bounced down, and normally we spend a lot of time in these ranges up at the top. And as yet, we've not really spent a lot of time in the loss range. Now, you need to spend a lot of time in that range to allow an accumulation t pattern to take place. And that's what's happening when you're in a bare market.

[00:06:00]It's not that people are bullish, that they're the bearish. No, they're just accumulating. A long-term holder is buying a little bit every now and again, which brings me on to one of the most important charts in today's video, the Bitcoin historical volatility index updated for today's data. You can see that recently we've had a significant drop off in volatility after we had this huge move down. And every time volatility is getting down into these ranges, you see that it starts going back up again. When volatility rises, the question is in which direction is Bitcoin's price going to go. Well, Bitcoin exchange balances since the start of April have been generally rising. And since the start of April for USD deposits on exchanges, that was rising, but then it started falling. And the amount of Bitcoin addresses with more than what 0.1 Bitcoin is starting to increase from 4.388 million all the way up to about 4.5 million. And that gives us confirmation that people are accumulating but it's not having an impact on the price. And that is the literal definition of the wickoff accumulation pattern. So now we go over to the exchanges and we look at the funding rates and we see the funding rates is green across the board today on Bitcoin indicating recent selling pressure is coming into the market through short positions. And the fact that we're not just maintaining a very box standard 0.01 which we maintain the entirety of every bull market indicates we're in a bare market. But Jordan, look, spot volume increased 8%. Isn't that bullish? I mean, you're the guy that talks about spot volume every single day. Well, unfortunately, that's the entire crypto spot volume, not the Bitcoin spot volume, which is down 12.7% indicating that still people don't care. It's important to point out how long bare markets last with regards to volume. So, this is the overall cryptocurrency volume history. And although you might have a day that is up, in a general trend here, you have a lot of days that are up, a lot of days that are down, but your general trend there is down until a new bull market starts. Same thing will happen here. It'll be a steady trend down into the floor, a bunch of bankruptcies around this point in time, and then everything will get better again. But right now, one thing's for certain. Futures volume's down. Spot volume's down. Futures volume is down 20% as well on a on a on a Tuesday is incredible. But there is something I should point out today about the CME gaps, which is that yesterday in America and the UK was a bank holiday, meaning that this didn't get the opportunity to close, nor did that. Expect volatility.

[00:08:08]If we have a significant move to the upside, I'll be shorting that. I just have really currently no intentions of closing the short position, and we'll get on to why in just a moment. But in the meantime, just double check you turned on channel notifications and like this video. And while you're at it, if you wanted to join the $10,000 to $1 million trading challenge, you can do that first of all by joining the Chart Advantage Telegram group linked in the video description, but you can also join this one here that's called that Martini Guy VIP bot. When you click on that link, you'll get given a message. The message is to tell you exactly how to join the challenge. I will be starting that challenge at some point this week.

[00:08:40]Now, you don't need $10,000 to do it.

[00:08:42]You can do it with as little as $100. I just feel like if you're going to do it with $100, you're wasting your time.

[00:08:48]This stuff can take a long time. And the way I view it is every dollar at the start is $100 at the end. So the more you put in at the start, the more it is at the end. But of course, nothing more than what you're willing to lose. I've completed this challenge three times in total. I've attempted it about 20 times.

[00:09:02]I've had a complete loss twice. The bulk of the finishes of this challenge have been above 30 to $40,000. And normally that's after I've made a bunch of money and then made a bad trade. But genuinely, they've been really fun in the past. And if you want to get involved in the 10K to a million challenge, all the links and information is in the video description. But back to breaking down the market before we get on to the trades. The liquidation heat map for Bitcoin right now, you can see this is the one month liquidation heat map. So, it's a long-term heat map, but you can see the strongest level of liquidity on the one-mon chart is all the way down here at $60,000. That's a magnet. Don't ignore it. That's real.

[00:09:34]The other one that's real, but not quite as strong, is up here at about $95,000 and seems a lot more unrealistic that we could get to that level. So, let's drop down onto the one week. And on the one week, it tells us a bit of a different story here. On the one week, it says, "Look, $78,000. That's nice and attractive." But what I'd say is that's a probably a trap. I look at this here as a much safer, much easier area of liquidity for Bitcoin to enter into being it's fresh liquidity, it's new, and although this is fresh and it's new, this is short positions that are opening with some leverage here. And we know that it's short positions based off of the crypto longs versus shorts in the past 24 hours. nearly $400 million more shorting than there has been longing. In 24 hours in 12 hours, there's been about $200 million more shorts than there has been longs in the last 4 hours. There's been a very similar amount of both. But in the past hour, it's starting to tip back in the direction of short positions. What that's doing is creating a lot of like highly leveraged liquidity just above the price of Bitcoin that can act as a magnet, but if the direction is correct, it'll just act as fuel to the downside because people will act treat this as a magnet and try and long into it and it just won't happen. But the key thing to understand is if we managed to get into that range there, well, we're going up. But in the research that I conducted in today's analysis in the Chart Advantage Telegram group, of which there was an absolute ton of stuff that I did today, an absolutely amazing piece of work. Genuinely, I think it's the best free channel that there is in crypto. No one gives away this level of detail and research and everything for completely free. But having done that analysis, we came to some conclusions about the current Bitcoin open interest statistics. And recently I talked about the fact that Bitcoin's price had been going down while liquidity had been rising indicating that people were taking out short positions. But then at this point in time here you can see that there is a significant increase in long positions and then the price suddenly goes up. That all happened on this tiny little green candle down here, which didn't have much impact on price and allowed someone basically to take out a billion dollar long position and then cash the whole thing in one single transaction here, combined with some element of short liquidations and some element of people longing too high as well. So then when the price came back down, you got this extra drop in open interest here. But then since that point in time, the open interest in general has been falling and the price had been rising. But the thing is that is starting to change again. Open interest is just starting to rise. If I zoom in really far on this chart, you can see that open interest rose from 2.37 billion up to 2.5 billion, a $200 million interest rise. Meanwhile, throughout the same period of time, Bitcoin's price started going back down again. This is an early warning sign that the price is likely to go down over the next 24 hours because somebody just loaded up a $200 million short position.

[00:12:09]>> It's about to go down.

[00:12:11]>> And when we combine this with Ethereum's open interest as well, Ethereum's even weirder to be honest. Ethereum for a whole period of time had some significant price volatility there and yet open interest just dropped down.

[00:12:21]Isn't really showing much life. Isn't showing much love. These are genuinely very very bearish things. So I just see no good reason to close my short position. It's not like anything's getting better on Earth right now. I mean just look at some of these things.

[00:12:34]I I'm not even going to need to read out the headlines. This is a pretty cool one to be fair. I've seen a lot of hate for this car. What do you think?

[00:12:42]If I manage to cash $2 million on my trade, I'm going to go and buy one OF THOSE.

[00:12:47]>> NO. GOD, PLEASE NO.

[00:12:48]>> JUST BECAUSE I think it'll it'll be a super interesting car to own, first of all. And to be honest, I like it. I think it looks weird. I've always loved weird cars. This was my first car that I ever bought for myself. It's a Chrysler Yip Salon. It looked literally like this MK62 YBT was a number plate. I think that everyone's got an opinion on, oh, it's a good car. It's not a good car.

[00:13:08]Ultimately, most people will never be able to afford to drive it because they'll never learn how to trade crypto correctly. But I've got enough profit sat here to to literally buy one because guys, we're back at $581,000 and the market is moving our direction right now. Things are looking good for brother TMG. The account balance is now at $2.8 million again. And if you're wondering where I'm trading, I'm trading over on Yubit. You'll find a link for Yubit in the video description. Yubit is a fantastic exchange platform. It's very, very easy to sign up and deposit.

[00:13:36]It's just like using Bybit back in the early days. And honestly, it's sick.

[00:13:39]I've really enjoyed using Yubit for this. But I mean, it helps that I am up nearly a million dollars. But I am genuinely in love with this platform because it's so easy. And you can get the mobile app as well, just like back in the good old days. And I'm also running the $10,000 to $1 million trading challenge using this. So, if you sign up for the exchange, then you get access to the challenge anyway. But in order for us to know where to exit our trade, we must now do some analysis.

[00:13:59]>> Oh. Oh, this is a good part. And I've seen so many people on YouTube plotting this right here and going, "Well, we're going to hold this level of support at $76,000."

[00:14:09]And I'm like, "Well, no, probably not.

[00:14:12]To be honest, that to it looks like a pretty catastrophic level to be kind of expecting a bounce off of." It's way more likely at this level here. Price goes something like this and then bounces to to to about there and then back up to this level and we form this like megaphone pattern. It's called a megaphone pattern if you look up what a megaphone pattern is. But basically when you break out of a range here, you make a megaphone pattern. But this is ultimately a bearish pattern that results in a giga drop down to that level of liquidity down here. Any serious loss of the level of about $76,75,500 is going to result in a plummet down to about 76 $68,000. That's $68,000. And to be honest, this cup and handle formation that we've had plotted out on the chart literally since the price was up here.

[00:14:51]And this is now running for like two weeks on the channel. We've not left the range. It's plotted out perfectly. It's doing amazingly. And so the next move here is downwards. If you believe in this pattern here, now for me, I kind of really do believe in it. And I don't mean to instill too much confidence in you when I say stuff like this, but I I really do believe in everything that I'm telling you right now. The first thing would be that I believe in the Elliot wave theory here being correct. I believe that this Elliot wave here is also correct. I believe that we will find our level of support down at that peak range of liquidity. There was a guy that commented on the video the other day saying, "Ah, you're only looking at Bit Stamp." No, look at this idiot.

[00:15:26]We're not looking at just Bit Stamp.

[00:15:28]This is Bybit as well. Same range of liquidity down here. Every single range right now of liquidity is sat at $68,000. Same on Coinbase. You see Coinbase up there. The thing is, as long as you pick a liquid exchange to run the VRVP on, it doesn't matter which exchange you pick. Most of them are very, very similar anyway. And you can't run a VRVP on an index because the index isn't picking up the volume. But of course, I don't just want to present the bearish theory. I also want to present you with the bullish theory because look, things can change in between me making and posting a video and the price going back up and Trump saying something crazy and the level of which you've got to abide by right now is a break above that level there. That would be a failure at the head and shoulders pattern breakdown and that' be $77,800.

[00:16:10]Trading above $77,800. What I'd recommend is check what is going on in the chart advantage telegram group where you get the most information that's up to date. But right now I'm just not concerned. We're getting rejected off the RSI. I believe I'm correct. I don't think I'm wrong. And something else that's given me a mild amount of confidence right now is the world's best indicator is currently telling me I should also be short. And this world's best indicator, you find a link for it in the video description, but it's called Stony. We spent years developing this. Sure, it doesn't have the prettiest website, but pretty websites don't make money. The technology does.

[00:16:37]And it was right about that trade. It was right about that trade. It was right about that trade and it's just gone short. If we look back in history, it's called some amazing short positions in the past with it going short here and shorting all the way down to here. It called this amazing long position, closed it there before it dumped. Even if we go back to the next trades, nice profitable long. Uh that one was not so profitable in the end, but it was actually correct. It was a short position. It just got I mean n across this range here, it was correct. Across that range there, it was correct. It's actually very rare on a 15-minute chart.

[00:17:02]If you look at Bitcoin that stunks wrong, it's not really wrong very often.

[00:17:05]Time will tell. I'm in Did that go up?

[00:17:08]$580,000.

[00:17:10]I I think that went up. Did that go what was it earlier? Anyway, I mean $580,000 of profit. That's quite a lot of money.

[00:17:15]Is that you got bear in mind sometimes reality kicks in. I'm 29 years old. I don't come from a lot of money and sometimes I look at that I go, is that correct? Yeah, I think it is correct.

[00:17:22]But yeah, I'm in these massive trades and I think that I'm right. You let me know if you think I'm right in the comment section below. I look forward to chatting with a bunch of you. Slap a like on the video, subscribe to the channel, and I'll see you in a bit. Cow.