Conflicts affecting Crypto, AI bubble unwinding?

[00:00:31]Okay, we're live. What's up everybody?

[00:00:33]Hope you're all doing well.

[00:00:36]Um, some interesting developments going on in the world and in crypto. Uh, we're going to take a look at all of them. Um the conflict in the Middle East is um not surprisingly escalating and um we'll see if it's affecting the crypto prices. But generally markets react to conflict or wars and then get over it pretty quickly as we've seen um just recently, right? It um kind of just strikes it off and then continues higher. But there are some indicators here and some charts. Um, especially this one which is Micron Technologies.

[00:01:21]Um, it is probably been one of the best AI trades thus far and it looks incredibly toppy. It looks I mean if you just check this chart here, I mean I should use shift to measure moves. Um, just from the bottom that's 32x from the bottom, right? Micron technology engages in provision of innovative memory and storage solutions. It operates through the following segments. Cloud memory, business units, core data and um you can actually see their profit margins here.

[00:01:58]It is already it's still incredibly profitable. Like the revenue here was 37 billion. And um the market is kind of like freaking out a little bit here cuz it is expecting um just look at this quarterly. This is unbelievable.

[00:02:18]9 billion in quarter 3 of last year, 11 billion, 13 billion, 23 billion, 41 billion. So the market is like how are you able to um just increase profits every month, right? This should look like the opposite. Like the I always say that markets top on incredibly good news and bottom on incredibly bad news. Right? So if you're a fundamental analyst, you're always on the wrong side of the trade.

[00:02:48]Um fundamentalists always lose. Like literally always.

[00:02:53]Um yeah, that was even the the um although we don't really have market structure here. maybe on the daily, but on the weekly I wouldn't ex I would expect at least a bounce here. Let's quickly check out Nvidia as well.

[00:03:09]You mean the Nvidia has been down like 20% already. I don't know if this is going to roll over. There's been many times that I thought maybe, you know, this is a little bit overextended. This looks like crypto charts. Like literally looks like meme coins.

[00:03:25]Yeah, but it is the market can stay irrational longer than you can um than you can ever imagine, right? It it can just go on forever and ever and ever. So, it's really not a good idea to start calling the tops on these things.

[00:03:42]The only thing you can literally do here is just stay out of this market if you're not allocated.

[00:03:48]Um, big tech. I mean, it is probably the trade right now to go back into big tech. Although, I won't go into Apple.

[00:03:55]Apple's incredibly overextended.

[00:03:58]Yes, just moving higher here. Microsoft.

[00:04:08]Yeah, this much better since it's cooled down a little bit. That's like almost 40% down.

[00:04:17]uh meta actually, you know, all of this looks like distribution here, right?

[00:04:28]Just lower highs and lower lows. And what else? Um so those big uh seven tech stocks probably look much more interesting than the crypto or even the um the AI trade here, right? Let's actually look at SpaceX. SPC CX. We just write it out because SpaceX.

[00:04:55]No, it's not the right one.

[00:05:00]Here we go.

[00:05:03]No data here.

[00:05:08]Why can't I ever find this freaking thing that it trades on?

[00:05:16]SBCX.

[00:05:18]Here we go.

[00:05:21]This is the weekly.

[00:05:26]I remember saying this is going to do 90% down like before the IPO ever came out.

[00:05:33]It's not a long time ago. It's 45%.

[00:05:38]Um, not great. A lot of retailers bought this thing here. You can actually have a measured move here.

[00:05:48]Wonder if this goes into the negatives here. Yeah, 69. Look at that.

[00:05:53]And to be surprised if they bottom it at 69. That'll be funny. You can have a projection here. Definitely in this area here. But you don't have to actually do projections. You'll see that there is going to be market structure that form in this. I'm definitely going to get some of this. Um, definitely not betting against Elon Musk somewhere in there. And what what percentage down would that be from the top then? 70%, 60 70%. But it's pretty much going to be very very easy to spot this bottom. It's going to look obviously I always say that's right.

[00:06:34]Yeah. Let's um go through the charts.

[00:06:38]Good morning from Cisco. If you guys have questions, drop them in. Um, I'm pretty sure I'm streaming right when Ivan Tech is streaming, so most people will probably watch this afterwards.

[00:06:53]Yeah, let's quickly go through these things. I'm not going to do this very long.

[00:06:59]Um, why does this look so much different?

[00:07:07]Oh, it's the daily chart. That's why.

[00:07:11]Total market cap excluding stable coins versus BTC. Nothing to say. You're just moving sideways. Inflation, raw materials, your commodities rising against obviously this is once again oil bouncing hard, right? It's it's at 81 and every time this is above 77, it's not good for inflation, right?

[00:07:33]Um, as all the raw materials, all products get more expensive because of transport costs, right?

[00:07:43]I don't know. Maybe it, you know, this wasn't the top here. Maybe it's got one more leg up.

[00:07:49]But this is obviously because of the conflict in the Middle East, right?

[00:07:54]Bitcoin getting rejected at this level.

[00:07:58]Um, hopefully you guys can't hear that, but I'm going to ignore it.

[00:08:05]Um, let's quickly look at the short term here. I mean, this this looks kind of ugly here. This lower highs here, but nothing's confirmed unless we trade below this level here. Maybe this was that last was it always was a V bottom. You know, this bottom has to be retested. Now, you don't have to go all the way to 57, but at least retested because the markets markets didn't bottom like this. They never bought them on a VB bottom.

[00:08:35]It's going to have to be retested eventually. And this is going to be a pretty good trade. Although, these wicks are kind of ugly. Yeah, it just complicates the trade a little bit because it shortens or it gives you a very very large stop loss.

[00:09:01]So a trade like this, but that's still a long ways away. But that's the what the trade is going to be looking looking like. So that's 2.4% risk. So you can use 2x leverage on that.

[00:09:19]But a lot of divergences formed. This is hidden bullish divergence. I'm using another divergence chart. It just um hidden bullish divergence is not enough.

[00:09:29]It's class B divergence. It's not enough to reverse the price. So yeah, I'll just keep a a look on that dominance. Let's zoom out even go to the monthly. you know, that's what we want to see. It's no um guarantee that this will happen. Um the best time for this to happen if you're an altcoin maxi is for this to happen after the harvining.

[00:09:53]So, we still got a lot of consolidation.

[00:09:56]Um if we want the best case scenario, but doesn't mean we get that uh lots of hidden bullish divergences.

[00:10:04]The trend is technically lower, so bearish. So, it's not enough to reverse the the price action here.

[00:10:14]Dogecoin, I mean, the altcoins are absolutely wrecked. No surprise, right?

[00:10:19]Dollar. Um, this is like this is years of really good market structure here.

[00:10:26]Uh, actually, it it ran that low down there. But then again, uh, this is fine, right? You've got the W there on the on the monthly.

[00:10:41]So, this is not good for risk assets, right? The a rising dollar isn't great for for all your risk assets.

[00:10:50]And that can be anything, right?

[00:10:54]Crypto, stocks, whatever. So, on the weekly, it's clear there. You're just retesting this breakout level. Obviously, if you fail, we'll reassess from there. But this, the dollar is still strong here. The euro would be weak. It's only holding on to support here. Maybe it reclaims it. And that'll probably give us an early signal. Um, if it reclaims it, well, it's reclaiming it now. It's actually closed a few candles there.

[00:11:25]But if it does fail, I I wouldn't be surprised if you come down to this level down here. And once again, that's it's not great for risk assets. Stock market, the S&P is just struggling to break out above the previous all-time highs. At at the least, this is at least good um that we've get some consolidation instead of just straight up up only.

[00:11:51]The NASDAQ looks thick look looks much weaker. If you look down here at the right here, this is pretty normal for seasonality into um the midterms into August and then you tend to bottom.

[00:12:07]But amazing how seasonally this happens every time.

[00:12:14]So this is where we are now. And you can see all of these years trend down into August and then reverse from there.

[00:12:23]Only in 2022 we did something else. We rose into into August and then sold off.

[00:12:32]This takes us to what BTC looks like on versus the NASDAQ versus tech, right? I mean, this is where we should be trying to find a bottom here. It's not going to be great if this asset loses its its lows that it made back here. It wasn't the best bottom that we had, but it it's good enough like even on the monthly. Let's look at it on the monthly.

[00:13:00]So, there is a clear W here, a large W on the on the monthly. So, it's good to see that we have some um reaction here, some support coming in here. But this can take some more time. It will be good if we go accumulate sideways here versus versus stick. But it's lots of hidden bullish divergences. So the trend is still up on the macro. You've got see higher lows here.

[00:13:27]So yeah, pretty good. I'm glad that we're finally getting some support coming in here. But it's going to take a few more months for this to move sideways, maybe even a year where BTC should be outperforming this.

[00:13:42]Um then the S&P uh looks a little bit stronger. Lots of hidden bullish divergences firing here. It just tells you that all of the momentum has pretty much reset and you've not really lost the lows.

[00:13:56]That's great for crypto if bullish engulfing candle there creating some really good structure.

[00:14:07]There's a lot of drawing here, but you can see the W starting to form here.

[00:14:13]Right. And it's right back into the previous accumulation range.

[00:14:20]So yeah, this is also great for us for the old coins that ETH is holding on to BTC and not losing these lows. Like worst case scenario is we lose those lows. Best case scenario, we've already bottomed out versus versus BTC.

[00:14:39]That's good for EVM.

[00:14:44]ETH on the higher time frames. We can see how many divergences fired at the top here. We want to see all of those fire at the bottom here. We don't have to get all of them, but there's already three of them firing here, especially at the RSI as well. Bullish divergence, hidden bullish divergences.

[00:15:04]It could have bottomed here, but then again, we need we need the sideways accumulation. And you can see how many months this took.

[00:15:15]This was 500 days of um sideways accumulation before it it finally rallied out of this range.

[00:15:30]Gold looks incredibly weak, trading below major major breakdown levels, but at the least it's good for inflation cuz this is a commodity.

[00:15:42]Silver incredibly weak, breaking down.

[00:15:45]This is going to $29 at least. Maybe even lower all the way to 21.

[00:15:51]And then maybe accumulate some there, some physical silver. You know, don't have to go all in like silver bugs, too.

[00:15:57]But just have a few coins, I think, won't be a bad idea.

[00:16:05]Others dominance. I mean, I know these look really, really interesting. The only thing that we know is that we are kind of like in the area where we should be interested in buying total market cap. I mean this can drop you know if we start losing these support levels we can drop all the way to 1.24 trillion. It's a total market cap. So cryptos currently at 2.2 trillion US which is quite massive. I mean that's not if you look at SpaceX I mean wow let's actually quickly look at what SpaceX look at the market cap we can't 1.64 64 trillion. Still larger than the whole crypto market. Uh just this month is fully engulfing the previous one.

[00:17:14]We've talked about oil. That's probably the most interesting chart is the tether chart.

[00:17:22]Stable coin dominance.

[00:17:28]So hidden bullish divergence forming here. This is the weekly chart.

[00:17:33]Um, you know, it still looks like there's one more leg left in this higher, which spells one more leg down for the crypto market, right?

[00:17:46]This was some really really good um structure that it formed back here on the the weekly.

[00:17:55]hidden bearish divergence is at least forming here on the higher time frames.

[00:18:02]So we're I mean very close to that top but not yet.

[00:18:07]Um so it for this to be confirmed it needs to trade below this 8 8% level that level marked on the chart until then.

[00:18:19]So this is only on the monthly scale. on the weekly it's it's different levels, but this is probably better to look at this. So, there's still a lot of room here for this to consolidate to trap more bulls. I know it was quite bullish the previous live stream. Um, so this is the homebuilders salana. I mean, you know, this is still going to take a while. This this monthly chart makes this much more clearer.

[00:18:59]These old coins definitely have more downside. You know, this is getting rejected again here. It could actually play out within this month still if this candle turns red cuz there's just nothing here holding up this price. Like how quickly this moved through the here. This is how quickly it's going to move through it to the to the lows down.

[00:19:29]The K shape recovery. This is consumer sentiment. This is the lowest it's been since the '7s. Like, people don't have money to spend. This is why gambling is so popular. Why we had a terrible cycle in the previous crypto market.

[00:19:48]See what you guys are saying. Afternoon when clarity act.

[00:19:54]Can I look at micro strategies here?

[00:19:57]Let's look at MSDR.

[00:20:05]still kind of in this accumulation range. A lot of hidden bullish divergence is forming here. Like momentum has totally been reset. You just have to continue defending these lows.

[00:20:23]Let's see. Um I did run the bottom signals.

[00:20:32]So zero or five signals have triggered today. Those triggers are the MBRV score. Um the current value is 0.39.

[00:20:44]The other one is BTC versus the realized price. I'll actually go through them.

[00:20:49]They're up here. So MRV score as we can see here that these bottom at the negatives the previous cycle it bottomed at minus.25 we are currently trading at like 0.36.

[00:21:06]So it's trending higher now. Uh we wanted to go negative.

[00:21:11]In 2019 it bottomed at 0.3.

[00:21:17]So we're still positive here. The MRV score hasn't bottomed just yet.

[00:21:26]Next one is Bitcoin's realized price.

[00:21:31]Um yeah, the MRV is climbing. USDT dominance, which we looked at, is still grinding towards 9 to 10%. Um resistance rather than rolling over. Beer and greed is at 29, but not yet crossing into grid. Micro strategy is back near $95 instead of basing in the 40 to 60 zone.

[00:21:58]Um the realized price, we'll quickly look at this here.

[00:22:03]As we can see, every time BTC bottoms, it bottoms below the realized price. The realized price is just uh where most people um have bought their Bitcoin. So most people should be in losses before we bought them, right? It makes sense because in sentiment wise, you need people to sell below um where they actually bought their crypto. And that tends to be the bottom.

[00:22:32]And we can see that every time. In 2015, it happened. In 2019, we traded below it and bottomed. In 2022, we traded below it and bottomed. And we are still above it here. So that hasn't changed.

[00:22:49]Let's look at the other indicators. The USD dominance, we talked about it. It's at 8%, the signal has not triggered. The signal is at between 9 to 10%. Fear and greed is at fearful at 29.

[00:23:03]We do have divergences there though, but generally you have you need a few divergences. We can see price is lower than in 8th of June.

[00:23:17]But price is lower, right? So we have divergences between sentiment and price action.

[00:23:28]And it actually I mean there's a lot of W's on this chart. Like it can go actually just create more divergences.

[00:23:36]So price can actually drop once more and people become um accustomed to um these fearful times.

[00:23:46]So sentiment continues to rise. People are less fearful on every single drop and that's how the market bottoms. It tops the exact same way.

[00:24:00]And the opposite of fearful would be people are exuberant at the top. But each consequent top people become complacent and it starts the sentiment starts trending down. So you have a divergence between price action and sentiment once again.

[00:24:23]And is there any other indicator we're watching? MSDR price. So we've talked about that. We're looking for micro strategy to bottom in the 40 to 60 range. Um, that will be the signal. So, I'll mark that area out actually.

[00:24:41]4260.

[00:24:43]It's interesting that it corresponds exactly with where the structure is. I'm just checking to see if that was in fact a double bottom. It actually pierced it.

[00:24:56]So Micro Strategy actually bottomed on a Vbottom technically speaking.

[00:25:02]So this would be the W here at 47.

[00:25:08]So between 47 and 60.

[00:25:14]So those are the levels we're watching.

[00:25:16]What? Not quite there yet. Hey, so so there's definitely time left. Um none of the indicators are firing. if we just go with the time analysis, right? Um, but I don't know, maybe you guys can let me know in the comments if the influencers that you're watching, if they're all now on board with the four-year cycle, cuz I remember distinctly that at the top, everybody said that the four-year cycle was dead, especially the permables.

[00:25:48]Um, people were ravenously, disgustingly.

[00:25:57]Um, yeah, they hated the the bears pretty much what I'm trying to say. So, that sentiment needs to change, you know, if we want an earlier or even a later bottom is we need to see everybody back on board with a fouryear cycle, especially those that disregarded it at the top cuz that's why it played out again cuz everybody price didn't go as high as everybody thought while time was running out. But so the opposite of that should happen.

[00:26:38]Then we'll quickly look at the most profitable leverage traders and these guys, the money printers that are these guys that have made more than a million dollars, they're now very very bearish again. Um, so they got to bearish, but then now they're very bearish again. So unless these guys at least get neutral, I'm not comfortable with calling a bottom just yet. And just like just over the weekend, the sentiment has already changed.

[00:27:10]Um that could be the conflict in the Middle East, but that should the market should um strike it off pretty quickly. It always does. Conflict always works like that. And the AI trade is unwinding a little bit here. So most of those savvy investors in the that caught the AI trade quickly have pretty much taken profits and are now like I said in the previous or earlier in this live stream are now going into those um conventional top seven tech companies. I think I've covered pretty much everything. I'll quickly look at see if there are any requests.

[00:28:03]We'll be $1.

[00:28:05]Uh no, even if it goes to $1, uh I'm going to be selling ass on doubles.

[00:28:16]I doubt that just Still just moving sideways here.

[00:28:40]So weekly, this is a lot of time just sitting sideways here. But that's you kind of need assets to do that.

[00:28:48]You know, some other altcoins are losing their lows constantly and at least this is holding its lows, but it's it's down a lot. E, I mean, this looks like a typical Richard art asset. That's 94%.

[00:29:09]And it went down 99%.

[00:29:14]Typical RH products.

[00:29:17]I'm just joking. Anyway, none of these are things are going to be interested.

[00:29:21]We'll look at it during the bull market.

[00:29:23]It's obviously going to change then. But until now, just spare your your brain juices and focus on something else.

[00:29:34]the whole year. I mean, it's been better to, you know, focus on your fitness or relationships or anything else but crypto cuz you would have gone crazy and most people want to give up now if they sit through this whole thing.

[00:29:54]Anyway, that's been 30 minutes um just to check in with you guys. I will see you guys in the next