“This Is Getting Silly”

本站添加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]Coming up today, the stock market continues to surge as the price of oil tumbles. The mainstream media's disbelief. Anthropic partners with SpaceX, the best performing stocks today, and demand for compute continues to go off the charts. Markets are melting up, guys. Let's go.

[00:00:18]And welcome back, guys. The rally continues. How strong is this stock market? NASDAQ's up another 2% today.

[00:00:24]Getting a bit of a bounce here in silver and gold with oil pulling back. Looking at the best themes there today, AI compute stocks once again. Those Bitcoin miners who have turned into high performance compute really ripping out the gate along with a bounce back in gold and silver miners after they had been sold off last week. And another strong move up for uranium. Stick with me today and I'll give you an update on some of those swing trades I shared last week along with some new ones I've put in. Market's got a lot of momentum. So today we'll be looking at some breakout setup along with one interesting stock.

[00:00:50]We're seeing heavy signs of smart money accumulating. So, I'll explain that to you later on along with showing you one stock me and my members zone that is up 55% just today alone and what is driving that massive rally. But first off, as usual, let's step back, take a look at the market, the data, the headlines really driving this rally and some interesting new developments. Fear and greed index 68 still not in the extreme greed zone just yet. As unbelievably just last week, the latest AI investor sentiment survey came in with more bears versus bull as there's still a lot of pessimism out there. as this rally has caught many by surprise as it's been the fastest market recovery ever. Modern-day markets move very fast and why I've been calling it for a few weeks a lockout rally. All those investors on the sideline waiting for a dip to get back in simply haven't got it as the driver behind this latest correction is well and truly in the rearview mirror now. In fact, the stock market saw this coming and frontr run it by a few week. oil prices falling again on reports the US and Iran are closing in on an agreement to bring an end to the conflict with the president confirming this as well which is still not a done deal as the Iranians have been really hesitant to agree to a deal but the president has threatened an even more intensive response than before if they don't but if that deal does go through then we may have just seen the top in oil last Wednesday the 29th of April some of you remember on that day I said on my video oil was a good short and it has quickly fallen a bit more than 10% over the past week but still well and truly much higher than a few months ago before the conflict started.

[00:02:13]But the stock market doesn't seem to care. S&P 500 breaking out here today on a clean candle after just briefly consolidating here on the 10day moving average last week. We've gapped up and held today. And there's a look at the NASDAQ and the driving force behind this latest rally. And that's the AI trade infrastructure compute coming back in a big way unlike anything we've ever seen before and all the numbers across the board both fundamental and technical.

[00:02:36]Interesting to note, we're also following the common path of seasonality we've seen in Trump years. Quite often getting a correction, sell-off late in Q1 going into Q2 before the market finds its feet and typically does well for the rest of the year. We appear to be on that same path here in 2026. And that's because corporate earnings are reaching for the sky. Q1 earnings growth for the entire S&P 500 coming in at 27% for Q1.

[00:02:59]More than double what Wall Street was expecting with analysts now making the largest increases in their quarterly earnings per share estimates 5 years.

[00:03:07]They're having to chase this market, not just technically, but fundamentally.

[00:03:10]Even more impressive is this earnings growth isn't coming from rock bottom lows. We typically see these big bouncebacks after earnings has really come back. Then we get that V-shaped recovery, but we're getting earnings beats and year-over-year growth coming from a stable base. In other words, earnings were already growing, sitting pretty, and now they're accelerating to the upside. And for calendar year 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 20% for the entire S&P 500. And so, the modern day S&P 500, now almost half of it made up of tech and AI stocks, is kind of disattached fundamentally speaking from traditional economic drivers. Jobs growth, the price of oil, geopolitics, tariffs. has kind of shrugged all of these things off after short-lived pullbacks and corrections as money doesn't lie and the market cannot simply ignore this huge growth in corporate earnings that the jury is still out on whether AI is going to be a net benefit for job growth or cause net losses. I think on average over time we will see human headcount and jobs shrink but no doubt for the here and now it's not showing up as a massive falloff for the jobs market. We are seeing the tech industry reduce headcount, but overall the unemployment rate still at 4.3% is pretty good. And for sure, it's creating new jobs in AI and soon to be robotics as well. But just scanning across the mainstream financial media today, I was hardressed to find any positive news or articles about all this just as has pretty much been the case for several years. And again, today there's just more bearish headlines and sentiment throughout the media than there is positive. S&P 500 record profits are a double-edged sword, and it could slash your return. as they somehow managed to turn even the most positive news into a negative. Again, here today in Baronss, five signs the semiconductor rally is getting silly. And no doubt the technical rally has been one of the biggest on records. Semiconductor index up over 50% in a month. But keep in mind, this is not the dotcom bubble.

[00:04:59]Back in the late '9s, the biggest tech stocks were trading at ridiculous valuation. Now we've got the biggest companies in the world growing earnings like crazy still trading at reasonable valuation. In fact, even after this latest rally, the Ford PE ratio on the S&P 500 still hasn't taken out last year's highs. And that's because whilst the market was correcting the last few months, earnings were still going north, creating a big pullback in valuation.

[00:05:22]And so, all of this rhetoric lately, and I'm sure many of you will remember, it was pretty much the number one buzzword of last year, AI bubble. Kind of just reminded me of this tweet from a seemingly random person over on X in October last year. Not enough people are emotionally prepared for if it's not a bubble. And so, as many of you know, I've been super bullish for several years. A lot of people just think I'm blindly bullish regardless, and I've just so happened to be lucky. And whilst yes, I do consider myself to be a perma bull, that's based on many years of study showing it's always better to remain bullish. But it's also been the result of analysis and the key drivers behind this market. I'm a relatively small YouTube channel. The biggest out there for several years have constantly been sounding the alarm, saying we're in late cycle. It's a bubble. Be careful.

[00:06:05]Even admitted themselves, they've been staying out of this market. And I can't imagine how many millions of investors they've convinced of the same view and kept them out of this market the last couple of years. And that's because fear sells just like the mainstream media.

[00:06:16]Coming out with positive news isn't so popular. Whether it's right or not doesn't really matter. But I agree with Larry Frink, the CEO of the world's largest asset manager, Black Rockck. At least for now, we don't have an AI bubble. We have supply shortages. The world can simply not get enough compute.

[00:06:32]Demand is outpacing supply. Look at what we've been seeing not only in chip stocks, but in memory. and anything to do with supplying data centers, which up until now has largely been driven by human usage of AI. Just looking at myself, even over the last several months, the amount of compute I use has gone up dramatically. I've created gecko.app in addition to AIdriven research to help run my portfolios. I'm spending the most I ever have on AI and related services and tools. So, just the amount of GPUs, CPUs, memory, storage, cloud for myself has gone north. And this is really before we're really hitting the age of AI agent that will automatically do work, transact, and use a lot of tokens. And that is set to explode going into 2030. The demand is there. Unlike the late '9s, which they did invest a lot in internet infrastructure, if we didn't have that bubble, we wouldn't have the internet that we have today. They laid a lot of fiber optic cables and other hardware to really set up the internet, but they didn't really have the earnings back in the late '90s to justify the valuation.

[00:07:32]The theory was right. the internet was going to be big. It did turn out to be big over the next 25 years. But valuations had gotten way ahead of the fundamentals at the time. So there was a big repricing. And so as I've been saying for a while, we very well could be on our way to an AIdriven bubble, massive blowoff top. I'll be surprised if we don't see it in the next year or two or three. We could be on our way there now. Just a likening this latest move to the late 90s if we use a starting point of January 2024. So pretty similar setup. And that last part, as we often do see towards the end of a bull market, is absolutely crazy.

[00:08:05]Prices can double, triple in a matter of months. Another chart I've been showing for over a year, just recently updated, is if we are likening this current AIdriven bull market with the internet bull market of the '90s using the first internet web browser, Netscape Navigator, released in December 94 with ChatGpt released in November 22, which really kicked off this AI boom, which I actually made a video of shortly after.

[00:08:28]In fact, it was the third video on this channel. I just created it in January 2023. And I came out with a video titled AI is shaping up as the next bull market leader. And that's because I'd noticed GPT, started using it, knew it was revolutionary technology and saw Microsoft was considering making an investment in open AI. And that's why for the last 3 and 1/2 years, I've been super bullish on this market. But just getting back to this chart, if we are liking this AI run to the internet run, it went for 5 and 1/2 years. So, we could still have another 2 years left in which the last part of it will be absolutely insane. Trillions of dollars will be made and lost just like in the late '90s. A lot of people bought the top. Fear of missing out simply overwhelmed them. But also, a lot of savvy people made a lot of money and cashed in on it. They were already long.

[00:09:11]A lot of people blew up trying to short it as well. It was obviously overvalued.

[00:09:15]But shorting is very difficult even in the best of times for shorting. And that's because stocks can go up a lot more than they can go down. But getting back to the here and now, we're just getting some super big deals. One of the hottest AI companies of today, if not the hottest, Anthropic with their revolutionary Claude Opus model just agreed to pay Google $200 billion for chips and cloud access. That is a monster deal, an ocean of money, and they've got the financing to do this.

[00:09:41]Investors are jumping over each other trying to secure Anthropic shares ahead of their likely IPO potentially in Q3 or Q4 this year. Also, great news for Alphabet, adding to a monster backlog.

[00:09:51]The cloud division is already growing 63% year-over-year. And Anthropic looking to spread their bets partnering with SpaceX, which is interesting. Elon Musk has been a big critic of Anthropic, I think, because he sees him as a big threat to XAI. But I think it's a brilliant move for both of them, especially with Elon currently in a legal fight with OpenAI's Sam Elman, or as he calls him, scam Elman, cuz Elon Musk helped to create Open AI, funding it with $100 million of his own money.

[00:10:15]And just as the name suggested, it was supposed to be open artificial intelligence for the benefit of society.

[00:10:21]Now it's very much closed for profit. So SpaceX partnering with Anthropic is a good move for both of them, making them stronger to better compete against open AI. Remember, it was really chat GPT that dominated AI for the first year or so with like 95% market share. Then Gemini, Grock, and now Claude have really catched up. But I also think part of this is Anthropic can see the future.

[00:10:41]For their models to continue to not only be the best, but just run, they need massive amounts of compute capacity. And in the future, that's going to come from having data centers in space, consistent sunlight around the clock. And that's why SpaceX merged with XAI, owner of Grock, and why I think XAI could potentially be the biggest AI company in several years once they get data centers up there. Because whoever has the energy advantage, the lowest cost of compute should win the AI game. And SpaceX and XAI is already a frontr runner on Earth with their Colossus data center and looking to build their own chips as well. Like Elon Musk says, the current projected supply of chips is not enough even for SpaceX and XAI. He's not relying on the entire industry. He's going to look at building chips himself.

[00:11:24]I think if we fast forward to 2050 and look back the previous 50 years, semiconductor chips could very well likely be the biggest returning industry of all time. I just can't see a future where the world doesn't use exponentially more and more chips. And so after all the rhetoric this last year of AI bubble, hypers scale is spending too much, there's not going to be a return, the market's quickly woken up to the reality that the world simply doesn't have enough compute and any company currently supplying it can't simply sell enough at the same time raising their prices. They've got volume and margins going off the charts and hence their stock prices as well coming off a relatively low base of multiple valuations. And just look at that growth in Anthropics annualized reoccurring revenue. We've never seen anything like this. A year ago, they were annualizing around three billion. Here we are today at 44 billion. They've more than 10xed revenue over the last year. Could very well finish this year with a run rate of 100 billion. And the five biggest hyperscalers could very well end up spending a trillion dollars this year, if not next year, as they've got the cash flows to do this. They're not levering up to the hill to get it done.

[00:12:26]They're just spending what they can. And that's having real material effects on overall GDP growth. The Fed themselves estimating Q2 is going to come in at an annualized rate of 3.7%. I've been saying for a while I wouldn't be surprised if American economic growth hits a four handle this year, potentially five later this year, next year, which basically nobody has been talking about or expecting a modern-day developed economy to grow at 5% annualized, but it very well could happen. And if AI does turn out to be massively deflationary, as I think it will be, because it dramatically increases productivity whilst lowering the cost of production, and that's before we've even really got into robotics, that should allow the Fed to lower rates, especially with a new Fed chair, who doesn't have a political vendetta for the president. But looking at interest rate pricing in the market, still up in the air, slight lean towards a cut in the coming months with the new Fed chair. But we did just get a legitimate oil shock. Stock market shrugged that off pretty good. Bond yields have been fluctuating, but they're kind of still in wait and see mode. Could still have a few high CPI prints lagging behind the price of oil, but things do get resolved over there.

[00:13:27]As I've been saying, I think we may have seen the top in oil, and before we know it, it could be back down to $70 a barrel after having reached 120. But amazingly, that just didn't knock over the consumer, stripping out gas, which has obviously gone up a lot. Total credit card spending has actually been breaking out, and we've just come off one of the best corporate earnings quarters we've ever seen. Just looking at all the numbers, you wouldn't have known there had been a sharp oil shock.

[00:13:49]As like I said, the modern day markets and economy are so resilient. And AI's huge secular growth, I think, is just overwhelming all of it. And this isn't just bullish for American technology stocks, but we've got a global bull market around the world, especially for countries like South Korea, perfectly positioned for all of this. For years and years, they were undervalued. Even Warren Buffett bought some South Korean stocks trading at five, seven times earning. And now, thanks to their heavy focus on electronics, memory, Korean stocks have been on an absolute tear.

[00:14:17]Their entire market is now almost tripled over the last year and up a whopping 78% year-to- date. Best performing country with Taiwan coming in second thanks to their huge focus on semiconductors. And of course, these huge moves here in the short term are not going to last forever. We'll no doubt just be around the corner of a consolidation pullback. And because we've had such a wild move up, 20 30% pullback, it's going to feel really dramatic even though we'll still be above yearly lows, these really strong moves in the short term do bode well for medium long term. And like I said, we very well could be on our way to that final meltup. Who knows, maybe this year or next year or 2028. I've always said that as it lines up with long-term market cycles, we're in kind of the third biggest secular bull market of the last century. And those last stages can get crazy. But for the here and now, we just don't have those crazy short-term valuations that you would typically see at the peak of a bull market bubble. And a bubble by definition kind of needs everyone to pile in. Then we run out of buyers. Then it's usually at those heights the economy and markets really overheated. The Fed's forced to raise rates significantly. And then the clock starts ticking after financial conditions have tightened typically closer to a top then. But until then there is good money to be made just like me and my members have been doing. One of our positions in our stock picks portfolio today up 57% blowout earnings.

[00:15:33]And that's onetop systems still very much a small cap with its market value not even 400 million even after today's move. And so they design and manufacture innovative edge computing modules and systems for many applications in the real world where it's tough to run compute in all sorts of terrain.

[00:15:49]military, industry, oil and gas, mining with custom-made hardware, integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning along with autonomy and sensor processing at the edge. And since they're such a small company, they get that magnified effect coming off a really tiny base. First quarter 2026 revenue increased 55% year-over-year, increasing their gross margin to 51%.

[00:16:11]Got a really healthy balance sheet, net cash, and that's why I shared it with my members and bought the stock myself as I always do back in the low8s in February.

[00:16:19]I like the growth outlook and valuation at the time and now we simply let our profits run as it's a trend following strategy I use in my stock picks portfolio. No one knows how high valuations can get. So I will continue to hold overvalued stocks and just let the technical trend get me out. When it eventually does turn, just like my first stock pick I gave out in June 2024, Palanteer turned out to be a fantastic investment, but the trend has since turned and it is no longer a hot stock.

[00:16:43]The price is actually lower now than it was a year ago. and just giving you an update on the performance of my stock picks portfolio. For those of you who don't know, I send out a stock pick every Sunday morning to my members with a detailed analysis and thesis for why I'm going to buy a stock the next day backed up by data along with why it fits into my portfolio well. Currently got 40 positions, so there's no big concentrated bets. No leverage is used, just long only a diversified portfolio of under the radar small cap stocks.

[00:17:09]started in June 2024, currently shown a 68% time weighted return, which is significantly outperforming the benchmarks, over 15% year-to- date, more than double the S&P 500's return and annualizing at a rate of 31% versus the S&P 500 18%. And again, I send out all my picks the day before I buy them. Then trading records straight from my brokerage account are uploaded into the members area. So all these results are 100% verifiable. It's completely transparent and you won't find any other service quite like this online as there's plenty of financial influencers out there offering memberships, mentoring, but they don't show any returns, any track record. And that's because they're just content creators disguised as successful investors. And just giving you a quick update on my ETF portfolio. Similar deal. I always hold 10 ETFs and the night before the first trading day of every month, send out a monthly report letting my members know what ETFs I'm going to sell and replace them with the next day. Typically only changing a couple per month. And again, just looking at the performance relative to the benchmark, up 16% year-to- date, annualizing at 26% well ahead of the market. And so, if you want to follow my portfolios in real time, get all my trades before I make them along with my justification for why I'm making my trades so you understand exactly why I'm buying and selling a stock or an ETF, then click the link below this video, head on over to my website, click capital.io, and use promo code alpha at checkout, and you can lock in a permanent 25% discount before this promotion expires this Sunday, the 10th of May. And you can also use that code alpha on the already discounted package deal to get both stock picks and ETF portfolio with a bigger saving on a yearly plan. And so no doubt in the future we will get a big market correction, bare market, whatever. I look forward to that challenge and we'll be trading all the way through it and be sharing all the ups and downs with you as my goal is to turn both of those portfolios into 1 million US each and then we're all going to meet up in Vegas and celebrate. And just getting back into the charts you a few updates on some stocks I shared on Friday's video.

[00:19:01]I said on Friday, Cororeweave and Iron could be primed to catch up on the explosive AI trade as their Neocloud stocks that hadn't quite ripped as sharply as the rest of the industry and we're already getting some monster moves the first three days of this week in these stocks up over 20% and iron up over 30% already to start the week not doing as well. Huntington's Industry, which I did get stopped out on Tuesday morning, gapped down after earnings. So, I exited that swing trade for a small loss, but I'm still very much keeping this stock on my watch list for another potential entry point as I still strongly believe in the fundamental thesis behind it of America aiming to increase domestic ship building capability. And with HIi being the largest military ship builder company in America and fundamentally undervalued according to my Gecko fair value score, I still very much like the fundamentals on this stock, but I'm just going to watch it for the here and now. Looking at a few other stocks I shared on Friday, gold miners, like I said, sold off the last week or two. I bought the dip on AM getting a nice little bounce there today, 6 and a half% still in that trade. Moved my stop up to break even and Rest as well. I bought the dip there on Friday. Still hasn't climbed above its 10day moving average just yet. Still like the look of this fundamentally and technically for a dip by. But that's going to need a better move up before I moved my stop to break even. And so these have been some dip buys that I've been doing. The Gecko app is not just about buying dips for mean reversion, but also consolidations for stocks in the neutral and distribution zone, aiming to exit into the selling zone where some of the biggest and fastest gains can come from. So, just looking at the Gecko index here on this stock, Guerilla Technology, I just bought for a swing trade. We can see it has awesome forward returns in the distribution zone. Whereas those other stocks I just showed you coming out of the buying and accumulation zones, when they mean revert, you're typically selling them in the neutral zone. But like I said, some of the biggest moves can come out of the neutral and distribution zone into the selling zone, which I wouldn't buy stocks into the selling zone, but ideally sell them into that. And so, just looking at an optimal setup here for this stock, we can see really good forward returns coming out of this level. Consolidation when the stock's kind of already in an uptrend, but not ridiculously overbought just yet.

[00:21:01]Another one I opened up a long on yesterday. Regetti Quantum Computing.

[00:21:04]It's had a massive correction the last 6 months, but we can see the MA is starting to turn up. And again, really good Ford returns coming out of the neutral zone. Ideally, we want to sell it into the big runup. And again, if you switch on the Gecko index exit, click on optimal. Can see monster returns selling when the gecko index goes low. And you can also use the moving averages to help guide your decisions and trail a runaway stock. Another one I just got into, Atlassin. really beat down software stock significantly undervalued but I think the market might just be starting to wake up that software stocks at least not all of them are going to be completely wiped out they just reported earnings last week significant beat on the bottom line 30% Gecko AI rated at8 which is really strong and I mean look at that a forward PE of 15.9 with the 10 MA just getting back above the 50 MA here this gap could very much hold and again ideally I would sell it when the gecko index goes below 40 we get a runup and just looking at one of the newest features in Gecko options page which shows a feed of unusual options flow with this big premium being traded that is much more significant than usual. One stock that really caught my eye was strategy formerly known as Micro Strategy. Someone purchased almost $und00 million of options, the 180 strike expiring on the 18th of June.

[00:22:20]This is while the stock is 36% undervalued. And just clicking on it here, going to the chart, the stock's been heavily beat down. As we all know, crypto's been in the toilet for months now. It's kind of been forgotten by a lot of investors. But is it starting to wake back up? Because in addition to some real heavy call option buying, we've also been seeing corporate insiders in the stock buying the stock with their own money, significant amounts, hundreds of thousands of dollars, which they typically only do when they think a stock is undervalued, which according to Gecko Fair Value, it is, as it's got fair value around 293.

[00:22:49]So, I also recently just put on a long position and strategy. bit more of a swing trade looking to hold this back to fair value with a stop below 160 to protect my downside as like I said a lot of people have just kind of forgotten about crypto but again I think the fundamentals are there not only for strategy but the entire crypto industry so let's see how that does over the coming weeks and months another feature in Gecko you may be interested in is Wales just going to that page zooming in here that gives a live feed showing bets made in real time from the top 100 most profitable poly market traders this week Gecko constantly scans the entire poly market platform for the most profitable traders, whether they've got inside information or not, or just really smart quantitative models. Some of them do really well, only showing large bets they make above $10,000. Give you an example on a few here. We'll just click on some bets they've recently made.

[00:23:37]Scrolling down, here's a bet, $135,000.

[00:23:40]And again, this one, $241,000.

[00:23:43]And just looking at some of these accounts on Poly Market, some of them are incredibly profitable. This account here, not even a year old, it's already made over $12 million. And just looking at that large bet it made, Thunder to win by more than 15 points. It did. It was a winner. This one here, Beach Boy 4, it's made $3.8 million in the last 5 months. Again, looking at that large bet it made on Arsenal to win. Turned out to be right. And so that's the idea of gecko.app to surface the signals from smart money, not the noise. Most other platforms just flood you with raw data.

[00:24:13]Kind of like finding a needle on a haststack. whereas Gecko just shows you all the needles in tandem with with our custom proprietary indicators helping all of us to find the best trading opportunities. If you would like to secure access to Gecko, now is the best time to do so. Click the link below this video, head on over to gecko.app, and use promo code Gordon at checkout to also lock in a permanent 25% discount off a monthly or yearly plan. And that code also expires this Sunday for those of you who wish to secure your spot.

[00:24:39]What an awesome market environment we're in at the moment. Great time to be a bull. Plenty of money to be made and I'm excited for what the rest of 2026 brings us. That's all for the global market review today. Thanks very much for tuning in and I'll see you back here again this time Friday night. Cheers.