TESTING This Football Trading Strategy For Champions League Final

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]If you're a football trader, planning to trade the Champions League final, this video is for you. PSG versus Arsenal.

[00:00:05]PSG are favorite here at 2.44, but we're going to simulate this market and we're going to try out some football trading strategies on this match to see what could happen in the real thing. Go grab a nice cold beer and let's get into it.

[00:00:29]So, we are here inside uh the football trading super simulator. We've got that market set up, PSG versus Arsenal. And this is the exact market. And just to be clear on how the football trading simulator works, uh the simulator is going to find hundreds or thousands of past matches with this exact odds profile. And we're then going to see how games like this, markets like this, actually have played out in the past.

[00:00:57]That's exactly how it works. And just to be clear and show you, we're working with 10,000 markets, okay? 10,000 matches which fit this exact profile of a favorite at 2.36, an underdog at 3.3, also the under two and a half goals being 1.87 and uh and so on. So, it's going to be very, very accurate to how matches like this will actually play out. Anyway, I'm going to show you uh because obviously the people did vote to have a look at the later draw. So, let's just see how this plays out.

[00:01:31]And let's just say if we want to go for a typical later draw, uh and then we're going to exit after whoever takes the leads. We're not going to worry about XG or anything like that.

[00:01:42]We're following the in-play stats. It's just to get an idea of who's going to take the lead, where those uh draw odds will go to. So, in this one, we can see PSG uh take the lead on 35 minutes. You could lock in uh £33 of uh profit. And uh yeah, you can just we would lock in the cash out and then go from there. Okay, so that's great and then uh we can see where this match would have gone afterwards actually. Let's have a look at this.

[00:02:12]So we can click on next goal.

[00:02:15]So PSG would go 2-0 up by 60 minutes.

[00:02:19]And then that's probably it, isn't it?

[00:02:21]Right.

[00:02:23]3-0 up by 65 minutes. So yeah, not not not great if you're looking at this as an Arsenal supporter.

[00:02:29]Um Ooh.

[00:02:31]4-0 by 73 minutes. Is it going to be a 5-0 like the uh like the one from last season?

[00:02:39]Surely that's it. All right, Arsenal get a consolation on 81 minutes and then surely that's the end of the scoring.

[00:02:46]Oh, 4-2. Could be a comeback on.

[00:02:50]Let's see what happens.

[00:02:53]Okay, final score 4-2. So that would be a very entertaining Champions League final if that was to happen. Okay. So remember, this is based on real matches, real markets fitting this exact market profile and we can load it up again and then we can simulate again and it's going to bring up a similar market and a similar match for us to to to to trade through.

[00:03:20]So let's go again and let's say we wanted to do our later draw again on this one and see how this match plays out. We're just going to go straight to the next goal. We're not mess around.

[00:03:34]Let's see how this one. So this one's different, okay? This one we've got Arsenal taking the lead and on 34 minutes. And if Arsenal take the lead, yep, you cash out with Arsenal as the underdog, it's going to be a lower cash out uh of around 18 pounds.

[00:03:48]So we could just get that locked in and let's see how this one plays out after this.

[00:03:56]Will it be a 1-0 to the Arsenal? It's a 2-0 to the Arsenal on uh 52 minutes. So, this is better if you're an Arsenal fan, right?

[00:04:04]Um let's see how this one Oh. All right, 60 minutes, PSG getting back into it.

[00:04:13]And then Arsenal do hang on. All right, so Arsenal hanging on. So, it's quite interesting. Look, we've done one simulation, PSG won it comfortably.

[00:04:21]Second simulation, Arsenal have won it.

[00:04:24]Now, obviously, and we're not going to do it today on this video, but really you want to run the simulation as many times as possible and there is a tracker uh built into the simulator also, okay?

[00:04:36]So, if you do have the simulator like many of you do have, you just upload it into uh Microsoft Excel and it will work straight out the box and you can track this. We're not going to track it uh on this YouTube video.

[00:04:49]This is just a quick bit of fun, to be honest. Um so, let's see what happens.

[00:04:52]We're going to lay the draw again and let's see how this one turns out, okay?

[00:04:58]It's been positive. The first two trades have been positive.

[00:05:01]And well, you'd have to wait a very, very long time, but then PSG would score uh right on the 90th minute. So, would you really be hanging in for that long?

[00:05:10]I mean, to be honest, if you're going to be laying a draw, let's go to half time.

[00:05:14]You've got to have some sort of exit.

[00:05:16]Otherwise, you're just having a bet, aren't you? So, if we took it to 45 minutes, you could maybe exit 28 uh 28 pounds loss at that point. But, if you were to say, "Look, we're just going to lay the draw for an hour and uh see if we get someone taking the lead. If you think that goal's going to come fairly early on, you could exit for just uh 54 pounds loss. To give yourself an hour, that's a pretty fair uh approach to it. Just say, "Look, I'm getting in 1 hour for someone to take the lead, otherwise I'm getting out, okay?" That's a fair football trading uh approach. But anyway, that probably wouldn't be ideal for laying the draw because the goals arrived a little bit too late.

[00:05:55]But anyway, let's try and load up Let's try and load up another one.

[00:06:02]So let's go again here. Take a look at this.

[00:06:07]And let's see.

[00:06:09]Next goal.

[00:06:14]Okay, so PSG lead 41 minutes. And if we wanted to just take the cash out at that point, we would lock it in. So you can quickly see if you're especially if you're a beginner football trader, you're trying to work out what are your best scenarios, what are your worst case scenarios, all that sort of thing. You could see look, if PSG take the lead, you've got £32 locked in. You could easily say look, we're going to give it an hour.

[00:06:35]If we don't get that goal by an hour, then we'll we'll take the £50 to £60 loss or something on this one. Anyway, let's see how this match would turn out after this.

[00:06:47]Okay, Arsenal get back into it right on half time, 45 minutes.

[00:06:54]And then Arsenal turn it around, 54 minutes. Okay, that's quite interesting.

[00:06:59]Let's see what happens here.

[00:07:03]Okay, 63 minutes, it's back at 2-2.

[00:07:07]And you could even just try stuff. Like I said, if you're just running simulations, you could try something like this. So this is like laying the draw later on with a discount. Okay? So we're laying the draw at odds of 2.18 with £100. And but our risk is only £85. So let's see if we do get the goal in this one or it stays 2-2. End up with egg on my face in this. Let's see what happens.

[00:07:31]Okay, and then PSG take the lead. And then look, you can increase your profits with that sort of approach. Now we've locked in uh we're going to lock in around £90 on this one. So um I mean this would be some final if it played out like this.

[00:07:46]Let's see what happens from here.

[00:07:49]Okay, PSG hang on for a 3-2 win in this one, okay? So, uh yeah, quite interesting. Now, just to remind you again, this is all based on real markets, okay? These real market prices, these are how real matches have developed after these market prices over 10,000 matches.

[00:08:10]So, it's not random, it's not a fluke or anything like that. Um these are all real matches, okay?

[00:08:17]Um so, let's try again laying the draw.

[00:08:22]And obviously, you would expect PSG are going to win the majority of this, but it's looking like it is going to be a bit more of a closer match than maybe a lot of people are giving credit for.

[00:08:31]So, let's try again laying the draw.

[00:08:34]And this one would be a nil-nil suddenly, okay? So, that's not good, is it? So, uh yeah, we can just exit out of that one. So, that a nil-nil usually not good for anyone, is it?

[00:08:45]So, let's load up another market and uh get going again. And just to be clear, of course, you could uh test out strategies on this match for the over and under market, for the correct score, uh for even the first half goals market also, okay? So, it's all there for you to try out. And let's try another lay the draw on this one. So, I think that last one was the first one where it Well, in fact, we've had two kind of failures, haven't we, of the lay the draw? Let's see what happens.

[00:09:16]Click on next goal.

[00:09:18]Get an idea here.

[00:09:21]Fairly late goal, but PSG would uh take the lead in this one on 73 minutes, and then you could lock in the cash out.

[00:09:29]Now, as said though, I mean, if you were to only say you wanted to stay in for an hour, uh then you would have gone past just your exit point, wouldn't you? Okay?

[00:09:38]Around the 60-minute mark. So, anyway, this is all just to run a little test, get an idea.

[00:09:45]But we are seeing some late goals. You might want to consider a delayed lay the draw, so we don't enter at kickoff.

[00:09:51]Oops, that's not good, is it? So, we don't It's going to crash on me. So, let's let's let's try and get this reset. So, yeah, you could you could consider a late uh lay the draw or a delayed lay the draw or something like that.

[00:10:03]Obviously, seeing how the match develops with the XG, etc. So, let's try one more on the lay the draw and and see where this goes.

[00:10:16]But obviously, PSG taking the lead. Oh, another nil-nil. Not very nice. So, we've done around 10 simulations and nil-nils come up twice. Um, hope that's not a a sign of things to come. Um, let's let's let's let's try one more.

[00:10:30]Let's try one more just for entertainment's sake.

[00:10:33]So, let's try this. So, let's go next goal.

[00:10:37]And let's just get an idea for this.

[00:10:43]Okay, interesting. Uh, PSG taking the lead on uh 47 minutes. Now, what's great about this simulator? Look, we can see that's a £33 return. That's off uh a lay the draw.

[00:10:55]Um, and you could quickly com- compare this to uh taking that same stake and then backing PSG or the same risk, you could argue. You could argue laying Arsenal is actually a lower risk than uh laying the draw, isn't it? And we've seen PSG take the lead in quite a lot of these. So, let's see how this would play out.

[00:11:20]And you would block in uh a bigger profit laying Arsenal, okay? For a lower risk. Okay? But um yeah, you would have to just obviously ensure Arsenal aren't the team to take the lead and have a plan for that. Uh so, we could also just see what would happen. If we go back and we wanted to go in backing PSG and see what sort of return you would get on that, you can obviously just run that as a simulation.

[00:11:46]But, we are seeing this quite a lot.

[00:11:48]Just It's It's a small sample. It is a small sample that we've looked at today.

[00:11:52]But, uh we're seeing it is PSG uh taking the lead quite a lot. And uh look, if you were If you're going to be really professional about this, then you'd want to run this uh simulation like 10,000 times.

[00:12:03]Um which I know nobody is.

[00:12:06]But, from this small sample, we can see PSG uh seem to be the team taking the lead quite a lot. And uh possibly uh just from what we're what we're seeing with this small sample, that might be the angle to to go with for the best return. Okay? This is £100 of risk, and we've locked in a 76% return on your stake. So, anyway, hope you enjoyed it.

[00:12:28]As I said, look, the the simulator, it works directly in Excel. You just upload the sheet, and you can test out as many uh strategies as you want on this particular match or on any match, okay?

[00:12:41]It's totally up to you. You can have hours of fun with it. And if you want to give the football trading simulator a go yourself, there are copies available now after a long time of it being unavailable. You can get it at the link in the description. If you're a beginner to football trading, this is perfect to practice your football trading with. If you're a bit more intermediate or advanced, this is the perfect tool to test new strategies and new strategy ideas that you might have, okay? So, the only thing you need is Microsoft Excel.

[00:13:10]You just upload the file in Microsoft Excel, and then you can get going with it. And as said, practice your your strategies, practice it on a match that's upcoming, uh etc. etc. You're not going to risk any money on that particular trade or those inevitable expensive mistakes. It's a really great tool for football traders, young and new. So, as I said, if you were interested in it, the link is in the description and you can get going with it right away, especially if you've got Microsoft Excel already there. You could get going on it right now, okay? But anyway, while you're here, also, because obviously when we're trading that Champions League final, you get you're probably going to need to look at the xG and look at the in-play stats. And this video on the screen right now will give you everything you need to know about following xG when you're trading football. So, check out that video next and I'll see you in the next video.