Raoul Pal Warns: The 2026 Bitcoin Cycle Peak Will Catch 99% Of Investors Off Guard

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]You know, when everybody said that's it, the party's over, it's the end of the bull market, we can all go away, the market did exactly what we suggested, which is come up and this was [music] exactly to do and I think you you should show the tear up that chart in a bit, the one we looked at this morning, you and I, which is the US liquidity chart.

[00:00:18]And it's like it's [ __ ] perfect. Um so, you know, that seems to be playing out as expected. The liquidity flow is happening. It's all on track for what we expect.

[00:00:29]I still think crypto will outperform uh tech stocks uh at the next phase of the cycle. Everybody called the top, said Bitcoin was dead, the bull market was over, and crypto's best days were behind it. But while fear spread across the market, smart money followed liquidity, >> [music] >> and the charts never lied. As Raoul Pal points out, every major correction has simply reset the market for the next leg higher. Now liquidity is flowing back in, Bitcoin is holding strong above key levels, and crypto could be entering the next explosive phase of the cycle.

[00:01:02]Before we go on, please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more content like this. Every action helps with the YouTube algorithm and greatly supports the channel's growth.

[00:01:14]>> [music] >> Thanks for your support, and enjoy the video. What I've been watching is this >> [music] >> um 120-day exponential moving average.

[00:01:22]And you can see that basically we tapped against that here, you know, rejected, we tapped against it here, rejected, of course, but you know, managed to stabilize. And now we're well above that. And if anything, I think if we just zoom into this, I mean, this looks a lot like a bull flag to me.

[00:01:38]Don't know how how you you're thinking about it, but so that does it.

[00:01:41]>> does.

[00:01:42]So, that's Bitcoin.

[00:01:44]And then if I look at ETH, it's a similar setup, but we're not yet free. Um because here's the exponential moving average, and you can see the the compression going on here. Yeah. Um and we really need to clear, call it 2,400, but that's kind of the level that I'm watching there. SUI is just what a move we had on Sunday.

[00:02:06]Um, but if I zoom in a bit, I don't know.

[00:02:09]Looks like a bullish falling wedge to me. It's It's consolidating before the next move, I would say. Yeah, I agree.

[00:02:15]Um, deep a little further out the risk curve. Again, these patterns are really interesting because these symmetrical triangle patterns because it's either um, like traditional technical analysis, it's either a continuation pattern or a reversal. So, they're a bit difficult to to play, which is why sometimes you could do like a straddle or a butterfly, you know, in options, which is basically just you get to play either move. Um, but in this case, it's broken higher, come down to retest, and it had a pretty It's up 3% today. Tau, I don't know how you're drawing your your Bittensor charts, but this looks, >> [music] >> you know, pretty good to me.

[00:02:52]Hype, just a series of you know, continuation consolidations.

[00:02:58]Um, >> [music] >> and then I touched on Doge last time.

[00:03:01]I think this chart still looks good.

[00:03:05]Yeah, don't disagree. And then going over to um, you know, equities. I mean, look, Circle I mean, that's like such a fabulous chart.

[00:03:15]It is, and we added at the pro tier at $56.

[00:03:19]So, we bought here. Um, so we're up well over 100%, but the point is is that if we're right about where we're going with everything here, people are really still underestimating this story.

[00:03:31]Um, and the chart's kind of telling you that, isn't it? Yeah.

[00:03:34]>> Huge inverse head and shoulders pattern.

[00:03:37]And this chart is not pricing in the speed of which stablecoins are going to grow and are growing. It's as simple as that. It's an easy story. It's just not there. It's just not priced.

[00:03:47]No. Um, >> [music] >> and then, you know, Tesla's had a a pretty decent run here. Um, so I think that looks good having retested the downtrend. I still keep coming back to this chart on solar.

[00:03:58]Like once again, there's a daily 13 here now, but it feels to me like maybe we can do a 99 139. By the way, this is a weekly chart.

[00:04:09]So, it's And it's got to clear there's a lot of congestion over on the left, right? So, it might not get through that first time and needs to [ __ ] around for a bit and then do something. Yeah, but the point it I mean we got in a lot lower for pro and GMI, but the I think the point with this is just >> got in near the very low. Yeah.

[00:04:27]Yeah, GMI we're a little bit higher on pro, but yes, I mean this is the thing we've been talking about for a long time. I mean the solar story is one of those big stories as well coupled with stable coins. So, I just wanted to revisit this chart because really it's been it's been flying and then coin is really trying to break out here.

[00:04:46]Um so, this looks like an ascending triangle. And again, if we can close above 214, I like the look of that chart. It's a big day for coin. It's up almost 9%.

[00:04:55]Um but anyway, those are kind of the just the the market charts I'm been I've been looking at and just kind of following this week.

[00:05:02]We said here that this was going to reverse because of the liquidity flows came back and [ __ ] me did that reverse as you said. I mean that was a historic like this one was as well. I mean there is no stopping this. Every time you have a correction and people yelling at us saying it was all over, it was all over and then that happened. But you know, we've had the same thing in I'll come back to stocks in a sec, but you know, as you mentioned, you know, when everybody said that's it, the party's over, it's the end of the bull market, we can all go away, the market did exactly what we suggested which was come up and this was [music] exactly to do and I think you you should show the tear up that chart in a bit, the one we looked at this morning you and I which is the US liquidity chart. I mean, it's like it's [ __ ] perfect. Um so, you know, that seems to be playing out as expected. The liquidity flow is happening. It's all on track for what we expect.

[00:05:59]I still think crypto will outperform uh tech stocks uh at the next phase of the cycle. So, I think that's pretty good. Um I won't go through most of these. The other chart I'm very closely following is Zcash, um which has been a a great one. And I think somewhere here we're going to be doing a another one of these kind of inverse head and shoulders continuation patterns. Yeah, it comes down, breaks through, next phase of acceleration.

[00:06:29]So, I kind of like that one as well. Um going back to stocks, as you said, I mean, Tesla's now Let's look at the weekly to give it some perspective.

[00:06:46]I mean, this wedge is going to break.

[00:06:48]Yeah.

[00:06:50]And when this wedge breaks, nobody's really prepared for this.

[00:06:53]Um and I So, I still still think fundamentally, it's amazing, Rocket Lab has been Wow. [ __ ] rocket ship.

[00:07:04]And look, I get this is a very overvalued stock versus its revenues, but before the SpaceX IPO, the only way of playing the SpaceX IPO is owning this stock.

[00:07:15]And if I look at this rising wedge, if it breaks the top of this, which it looks like it's going to do, it's just going to go vertical for a while. And then I think we'll take profits into that because, you know, it's it's not making a lot of revenue right now. Um it's still losing money, everything else, I get it. And the SpaceX IPO will satiate the demand for, you know, space stocks, but this is the play.

[00:07:39]Um and I think it's going to go vertical. Well, the thing about that chart though that's crazy, I was pulled up a GMI portfolio. We added Rocket Labs at like seven bucks originally.

[00:07:51]Yeah. And then it did a 300%, then we sold it and then we bought it back at 18 $18.

[00:08:00]And now it's up six that position's up 600%.

[00:08:03]Again, the new position. The new position.

[00:08:06]Yeah, so I don't know how much [ __ ] money we've made in that, but it's been preposterous. Preposterous.

[00:08:11]I've had this whole thesis around this universal code that everything is funneling from energy into intelligence and it's driving the geopolitical process, it's driving the investment process, it's driving literally everything right now.

[00:08:25]And what we're getting into is this funnel moment where this Trump administration which was basically chosen by the accelerationists, if you remember it's backed by the crypto lobby and by all of the Democrats who used to be uh all of the tech overlords who used to be Democrats all flipped because they all knew that this chance was the chance because we're going to by the time we get to the change of administration we will have >> [clears throat] >> AGI, we will have crypto everywhere, all of this stuff.

[00:08:56]So it's been hurtling towards this. Now we're getting to the summer where everything has to resolve.

[00:09:01]Everything has to resolve for Trump for the midterms. Because again, if if um I divided by E continues to play out, I intelligence needs to accelerate then it really has to have the uh Republicans winning the midterms. It's not necessary but it's highly the most efficient path for this to happen.

[00:09:24]So it feels that all obstacles clear out the way. Now, I'm not sure people realize even the government's realize that this is what they're doing, but this is what they're doing.

[00:09:32]Trump is getting the Clarice Act across the line as we speak. I said that was going to happen because it had to happen because of the crypto lobby and what needs to happen before the midterms.

[00:09:43]We will see similar with AI because that's going to come, too.

[00:09:47]We have now got the change of Walsh.

[00:09:49]He's been voted in.

[00:09:51]Walsh is the Greenspan appointment of the 1950s appointment. He's going to run it hot.

[00:09:57]We will have um um we will have financial repression and they will let productivity take the sting out of CPI um and keep core CPI lower. That's what they're going to do. That's what Walsh in place. Here's the tech acceleration.

[00:10:14]He's a crypto guy. He's a prolific tech investor. He understands the game.

[00:10:18]Productivity is the game. The word supercycle is often overused in financial commentary, but here it carries a very specific meaning.

[00:10:27]Traditionally, economic cycles move through expansions and contractions driven by liquidity conditions, credit creation, and monetary policy.

[00:10:36]What is now being proposed is the possibility that structural technological acceleration could partially override normal cyclical behavior. In other words, corrections may still happen, but the system itself may resist prolonged contractions because too many political, technological, and financial incentives now depend on continued expansion.

[00:10:57]Governments need growth. The probability of a supercycle is is getting reasonably high now because of this massive capex spend that cannot stop. The race with China is on.

[00:11:09]The administration wants this to happen.

[00:11:11]They need it for votes and everything else. So, they will push for this whole thing.

[00:11:16]Liquidity looks like it'll come in any way, shape, or form. Now, because bill issuance is the main part of the liquidity cycle, we're actually losing cyclicality because of it.

[00:11:28]Even though we've got the big debt rollovers, but we've got 9 trillion to do this year. 9 trill 10 trillion next year. It's like it's ongoing. So, the point you and I have been talking about for maybe a year and a half, maybe 2 years, is we thought that after this cycle would be a super cycle. And now we're kind of starting to think, you know what? Maybe we don't get a full liquidity down cycle here. Sure, we'll get market corrections. We'll get sideways trends for 6 months, whatever it is.

[00:11:55]>> [music] >> But really speaking, we could see an extended extremely hot business cycle that runs. And the only thing that would null and void that is if the bond market says no [ __ ] way. Which is why Bessen is over in China and Japan trying to stop that happening by getting more buyers at the long end. So, if kind of anything over like 5 5 and 1/2% of 10-year notes, you start to say, okay, this could decouple. But we also have the reaction function is the moment that happens, they do something.

[00:12:26]So, it's kind of they don't want it to happen. They'll use some vague form of yield curve control to keep this happening. So, I kind of am erring towards the super cycle, which is the dangerous thing. Obviously, Nvidia exploding again, it helps Jensen's in China. Clearly, he's going to be allowed to sell Nvidia chips to China. On what terms? We don't know. And And when you look at this chart, I mean, if assuming that we're right, assuming the compute cycle article's right, I mean, we're the move has just started.

[00:12:56]I mean, it's just one of the wildest charts in history.

[00:12:59]I mean, I had I mean, wow. I mean, had you bought that back in 2012, Yeah. What a move.

[00:13:09]Um then, you know, Intel has been doing I mean, that chart was la-la land as well.

[00:13:17]Oracle, I think everyone's going to be wrong on Oracle. Oracle's probably going to go back to the new all-time highs.

[00:13:23]Uh semis, that you showed 10 circle good.

[00:13:27]Hims still really like this stock. I think people are still wildly underestimating the size of the market in in personalized medicine and um these compounding clinics and the technology that they've got and the sheer size of the um peptides market.

[00:13:47]So, yeah. It came down on earnings. I think it finds a base somewhere here. And as it goes through, we'll form an inverse head and shoulders and this thing's going to be exploding higher. So, I really like Hims as well. The D-mark wave count just opened up a new wave higher now that we've come lower as well. So, on on Bloomberg. So.

[00:14:06]Um eToro we don't have, but uh we had the only Astro on recently.

[00:14:11]Lovely inverse head and shoulders low. I mean, interestingly they had great earnings um in the same quarter that Robinhood and Coinbase didn't. Uh they got 1 and 1/2 billion of cash. It's like a third of their entire market cap is cash they're sitting on. So, it's a wildly undervalued stock. So, I kind of like that. Um DXY not doing a lot. You know, I think we need to get through the China situation, um get some outcome. It won't happen immediately, but over time we still think that the dollar goes lower or at least doesn't go anywhere important, so nobody has to worry about the dollar.

[00:14:48]I mean, you know, there's a chance that it comes back down to here, you know.

[00:14:56]If that happens, then you know, this really is going to be a very, very big bull market.

[00:15:01]Um yeah, absolutely.

[00:15:03]So, we'll wait and see on that.

[00:15:06]Uh rates we looked at, you know, rates are kind of not very happy right now. I think this is going to end up being a false break and we'll break back down again for the reasons we've talked about, but we need to watch it. You know, if it starts breaking up here, you want to start considering A what the reaction function is remember the uh friend of ours quote it's not trading the thing it's trading the reaction to the thing I you don't short rates it's what they do if rates get high that's an easier trade and more profitable so I think that gets interesting. Oil has been let's go to the daily chart [ __ ] around for a bit. I erased the nine count which is slightly annoying but nevertheless I'm not sure what the latest counts are.

[00:15:50]No but we kind of know that they have to get a solution you know because of the election because of the universal code so I'm just patiently [music] saying it will come.

[00:16:03]The other one's been copper.

[00:16:08]While I love the copper thesis what worries me about copper is every [ __ ] hedge fund I know is long this we saw that the gym I ran table right it's the it's the easy way to say well I don't want to play the multiples on tech stocks I'm just going to own copper.

[00:16:26]I mean I get the story but that's that's the only issue to me is is maybe it's not as easy a trade as people think it's going to be and maybe we see these moves a lot. The the spec positioning right now is very stretched as a percentage of total open interest so as you say it it it it does feel pretty consensus now. And the Chinese have vast amounts of this stuff in storage which I think they've been using as collateral to get dollars cuz they've been dollar starved now if they open the swap lines do they end up selling off or unleashing inventories of copper which is excess demand in the market that wasn't there before.

[00:17:01]Don't know I just it just always makes me nervous copper but you know I've also lived through some stupendous copper bull markets in the past when China came on the scene I mean this was a I mean I I never forget move. I mean, that was stupid.

[00:17:20]Yeah, 2001 WTO.

[00:17:23]59 cents.

[00:17:25]Yeah, I mean, 10x in copper, basically.

[00:17:27]Which is quite something. Now, could that happen again? Yes. Um but I think it's it's not as clean a trade, but I could be wrong. The US liquidity chart, which is seems to be still what's what's the larger influence on Bitcoin.

[00:17:43]I know people like Sarah Walker will pick it to pieces saying, "Well, the correlation and causation and blah blah blah blah."

[00:17:48]Look, it looks good to me. I like the chart.

[00:17:53]And it's worked it's worked very well.

[00:17:55]And it doesn't We don't expect it to be perfect. It will not be perfect. But contextually speaking, feels like the market should be strong into the summer, and that makes sense if liquidity is the dominant factor.

[00:18:07]Yeah, and then we need to figure out how high we get and whether or not, you know, what the sentiment's like at the time. But as I as I keep saying, we don't necessarily need to play the TGA drain because the difference between a TGA drain with QT drain is that that's the amplifier. Whereas, when you have QE, either from the banks or the Fed, the TGA no longer is the amplifier, but just creates volatility around the trend. You know what's going to happen if we don't say to people, "Oh, we need to be careful of this." And it happens, people say, "You didn't tell us."

[00:18:40]And if we do tell people it didn't happen, they're saying, "You [ __ ] You know, it's only the TGA." So, there is no winning for us in this. And I can already read the comment section in July where we're being scathed [music] for whichever we say here. So, do your own research, figure out yourselves, uh because there is no upside for us.

[00:18:58]Literally, um expected future expected value from us making a call on this is negative in every circumstance.

[00:19:08]Total US liquidity, including bank loans, which is important for the tech sector and everything else where the money's flowing, and I think it will reassert its dominance in crypto. That gives us, you know, that's basically if I put the NASDAQ against that chart, it's one-for-one right now. We keep saying [music] this. US liquidity bottomed right after the shutdown ended.

[00:19:29]Um and and here I've rebased US total liquidity.

[00:19:34]Um now this is the broader measure including total loans and leases, [music] and then the GMI daily liquidity deposit excluding US. So that's at all-time highs, >> [music] >> and then the US is also This was the This was the the TGA rebuilt. Yeah.

[00:19:48]>> And now obviously we're working that out already. So these things are again, to our point uh that we've been outlining [music] in reports, rising together uh for the first time really since July-August of last year.

[00:20:00]Exactly. And then if I look at GMI total, which is This is the daily [music] one.

[00:20:06]Oh, yeah. I think that's a thing of beauty. It is. And again, again, this only accounts for about 70% of our total monthly number, but it's enough to at least tell you directionally where we are. And look, the consensus view at the backlash that we were receiving really The Mike The Mike Cal backlash, I remember that one.

[00:20:25]>> Like like but like Feb-March, like all the way through it, you know, was that liquidity peaked [music] in Q3 of last year. I mean, it No.

[00:20:34]And again, the market would not be doing what it's doing if that was true. Junk spreads are almost near all-time lows.

[00:20:40]The move is back at the lows. The VIX is back at the lows. I mean, if the theory was that credit would be deteriorating, and as a result of that, credit spreads would widen and the market would be lower, none of that is actually happening. What we may be witnessing is not merely another speculative rally, but the emergence of a new macro regime driven by liquidity expansion, AI acceleration, crypto [music] integration, and geopolitical competition. The The framework where tightening conditions automatically produce prolonged contractions, may no longer fully apply in a world where governments, corporations, and financial systems are structurally incentivized to sustain growth.

[00:21:18]None of this guarantees a straight path upward. [music] Corrections will happen. Volatility will remain extreme. Sentiment will continue swinging violently between euphoria and panic.