Piper Sandler: Tesla Revenue To $1.8 TRILLION + $500 PT

Added: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]1.8 trillion in revenue by 2045 is what Piper Sandler is expecting from Tesla.

[00:00:09]That's insane. They also said something that's pretty interesting. I'll get to that. I first want to go over the chart because the layout, it's 17 different businesses that they go just break down every single year. It's insane. And man, I love this type of data because it tells you what these guys what these analysts are thinking. And thankfully, Piper Sandler, they are not seeing Tesla as just a car company. It's amazing.

[00:00:37]They also say they also said some interesting stuff about the Optimus stuff. We'll get that. We'll get to that later as well. Let's just go through the chart first cuz it's absolutely insane.

[00:00:46]Smash that like button, hit subscribe if you haven't already, and let's flipping go. I I am updating my 2030 or 2032 revenue, profits, everything from every section of Tesla. That's going to be up this Saturday for everybody for members only. It'll be up in a couple days or so. So, get ready for that. But let's talk about this. Piper Sandler sees Tesla nearing 1.8 trillion in annual revenue by 2045. Revenue outlook in billions. To illuminate what really matters, we've projected revenue for 17 discrete business lines. 17 discrete business line. While majority of people out there are saying Tesla is just a car company, what car company has 17 discrete lines? And look at this. We have revenue automotive, revenue energy, revenue services, and others. Where the heck is Optimus? This is excluding Optimus.

[00:01:37]Let's just get down because this is absolutely flipping awesome. So, as you guys can see for 2024 and 2025, these are actuals. These are stuff that already has happened that Tesla already reported on from 2026 all the way to 2045. These are estimates and I love the fact that vehicles alone is highlighted that it's minor long-term revenue source. But it's pretty interesting what they're thinking about here because it starts off with FSD licensing. It's crazy because I I mean licensing in my model I removed it completely because I don't even know how that's going to be calculated. First of all, I don't even know if that's even going to be a thing eventually. If auto other automakers want to sell their cars, they need to have FSD capabilities in the next 5 years. I would even argue in the next two to three years. If you look at Tesla, what they're doing, it's no one's going to be buying cars anymore. Car ownership is going to go away. So, if your car doesn't have f some sort of level of FSD capability, especially if you're going to be competing with robo taxi, imagine you're competing with robo taxi now. you're not competing with trying to buy this car or that car because transportation community is going to become so cheap that you don't even you don't even need to buy a car anymore. That's how insane it is. So FSD is going to be a thing that these guys need to do. But then later on car car ownership is not going to be a thing anymore because robo taxis going from point A to point B is cheaper, less headache and just more convenient rather than just owning a car, having the insurance, worried about someone hitting you or you scratching it, you know, whatever the headaches that come with it goes away. So this is a very interesting line here. I mean anyways I think probably it will become a thing but I don't know man this is this is a very interesting topic. I removed it completely from my analysis but there's they're starting out with FSC licensing starting from 2030 and look at that from zero all the way to 2045 to $400 billion. So this is going to be I mean what I don't know what they're seeing but this is insane. Then we got FSD hardware and of course if you're doing FSD licensing FSD hardware is going to be there. you know, you're going to sell the sensors, the cameras, all that kind of stuff. So, that is a business of on its own. That goes to 26 billion in 2045. Then we got FSE subscriptions, which we can predict. 200 million for 2024, 400 million for 2025, 2026. I think they're lowballing it. I think this could be as high as 2 billion.

[00:03:50]They're saying 600 million. I think it's going to be a lot more than that in my opinion, but they're saying by 2030 it's going to be around 11 billion. I think these numbers are sandbags. But then look at 2045, 74 billion. But here's the interesting part. It peaks in 2038 at 95.6 billion because of FSD licensing. And I can see why they did that because if you guys look at the FSD licensing, that is growing massively. That means you have other competitors that are using the FSD. So maybe they have a chance of buying the car again. I think robo taxi is going to be the way. And if we go all the way down, if you look at robo taxi rides, look, I mean, just look, $783.5 billion for 2045. Of course, when you have more robo taxi rides out there, that also impacts not just other automakers. Obviously going to impact Tesla's vehicle sales, of course, because again, car ownership is going away. And you can see the FC subscriptions going down starting in 2039 from that peak. vehicles alone, even before then, they're peaking at 2033 at $69 billion, which is hilarious. And it starts to go down for the exact same reasons of robo taxi being available everywhere. Again, carnership is not going to be a thing. And it looks like Piper Piper Sandler is adding this to their equation, which is really interesting and very thoughtful on this.

[00:05:14]I like their thinking here in this regard alone of licensing. Again, FC licensing, that's something else. But with the robot taxi rides going up, vehicles alone will go down. Yes, I do agree with that. Now, of course, FS licensing will amplify that. That'll actually go down lower because now you're giving other people, other competitors choice to pick them cuz their car also is autonomous. But as an enduro taxi network, that's the main thing that's going to eliminate car ownership in my opinion. Next, we have credits that stops at 2028. Although, I do think this is going to tail out to maybe the early 2030s and then end.

[00:05:46]Leasing is pretty much dead. It's not even growing max of 1.7 billion. That that's going to stay for like few years, four, five years. Then it's going to go down when auto starts to go down as well cuz you're not selling as much. The total automotive revenue that they are estimating by 2045 is north of half a trillion and 80% of that is coming from FSD licensing. Again, FSD licensing, I don't know. Comment down below. What do you guys think? What do you guys think about FSD licensing? because I'm still I eventually I know Nvidia is gunning for something like that but you're going to be competing in the next 5 to 6 years you're not going to be competing with the next car that has FSD you got to be somehow competing in a way that it does ride hauling because that's going to take majority of all rides as a customer if I know that the Tesla's robo taxi is like three to four times cheaper than Uber of course of course I'm not going to go with Uber anymore and stuff like that but if I know that it's 10 times cheaper than owning a car which is going to be and less headache. I will never own a car. I'll probably own a nice sports car to go on the weekend and stuff like that. But I will I would never own a car. And I think this is going to be the general mindset. And if you're Ford or Toyota, even if you have FSD capability, no one's going to be buying your car because people are taking robo taxis everywhere. You know, my god, Tesla, Elon, they're like five steps ahead is absolutely insane. And this is what Piper Sanders is thinking.

[00:07:10]north of half a trillion just ripped just automotive alone which is nuts. The next on the list here is energy revenue.

[00:07:17]I think they're overballing FSD licensing but they are underalling energy massively. I mean look at the power wall only 4 billion by 2045. Come on man. I don't agree with this at all.

[00:07:27]I think this is going to be at least three to four times more by 2045. At least five times. I mean energy is such a big business. We need storageages for many things. I mean if you get we have Houston coming which has 50 mega packs.

[00:07:42]We have Shanghai that has capability to do 40 gawatt hours. They can do 80 gatt hours. Let's say 40. And we have LA that can do 40. I mean just alone 90 gatt hours.

[00:07:53]That comes down to north of $30 billion if that's fully ramped up and deployed in one year. And they're saying that that's not even going to happen throughout any single year when it comes to 24. That is not right. I don't know what they did here, but I don't agree with this at all. They also have installation fields, auto better, leasing, solar, and other, which they're thinking solar is going to grow big, and I think it's going to grow much faster than that because we have gas prices are extremely high. People are now switching over to EVs and finding ways to be off the grid. Solar and others are definitely going to be way especially for countries now. Now country with with the situation that's going on with the straight of Humus being closed and oil prices being north of $100 per barrel and there's a lot of countries in Southeast Asia and of course in Europe they are energy dependent. They need this oil and so they're going to find ways to generate energy without using oil and stuff like that to be more energy dependent for sure. Overall they're only saying 50 billion by 2045.

[00:08:47]You know, I'm I'm thinking by 2030 2031 energy is going to making is going to be revenue 50 billion. So I I don't agree with their energy here at all. When it comes to the services and others, their supercharging looks really good by 2045 over $ 38 billion. Used car sales peaks at 10 billion by 2034, then declines down for the same reasons of selling vehicles by that time. Insurance continues to grow, especially with robo taxis from my god, look at that.

[00:09:15]thinking nearly $300 billion by 2045, which is insane. Robo taxi rides slowing down close to $800 billion, which is nuts. Repairs, parts, and etc. Peing in the 26.6 billions in the 2040s and such like that. Total revenue for services and others at 2045 peaks over $1.1 trillion overall. By 2045, $1.75 trillion when it comes to total flipping revenue. That's insane. Now, of course, some I don't agree with here, especially the FSD licensing and of course energy.

[00:09:48]I don't I don't agree here at all. But that is insane that Piperander is expecting Tesla to do revenue without Optimus of 1.8 trillion by 2045, which is insane. Now, with this alone, let's we'll talk about Optimus in a second. I mean, with Optimist, I think by 2045, an addition trillion will be on top of that to maybe three trillion.

[00:10:12]It's insane, right? Because Optimus I don't know why I don't know why they can't calculate for Optimus here. Tesla already gave us some numbers. They have a million dollar production line ready and they have a $10 million production line getting ready in Giga Texas by next summer and you know talking about picking another factory 100 million Optimus bot factory. It's it's it's insane. It's insane. So right off the bat they can calculate for 11 million bots being produced from now to at least the mid 2030s. But I don't know why they're not doing that. That's they already went this far. They might as well have to bought two as well, but they didn't. But let's let's talk let's stick with the 1.75 trillion. Let's increase to 1.8 trillion just to round it up, right? What would the stock price be if the revenue is like that? So, let's take a look at Nvidia. If Nvidia, they are trading at a 20 multiple for revenue. Now, we're not going to say for Tesla they're going to be 20. Let's just say 15 because Tesla's going to be printing a whole bunch of cash. So, multiply 1.8 trillion by 15. That gets to 27 trillion in valuation. That's a stock price of over or at around 8,400 bucks per share. That's insane. Now, if you want to add, let's say by 2045, Tesla is producing 50 or delivering 50 million bots at an average price of $20,000.

[00:11:28]That's essentially a trillion dollars in just revenue. That's 2.8. And let's say the same 15 multiple on that revenue, that's 42 trillion. Elon was talking about with Optimus and everything.

[00:11:39]Tesla, you're worth around 30 trillion.

[00:11:41]This is around north of 40 trillion and that is a stock price of over 13,000 bucks per share. Now, of course, this is based on the revenue multiple, not the profits cuz this is 100% all revenue here based on Piper Sandler, but I think it's going to be a whole lot more than that when it comes down to the PE at that time with the revenue. I think is going to be maybe upwards in 20 25 30 depending on how fast they're going to grow especially when you unlock a whole new planet. I mean that's going to break brains. Break brains. And of course this is if there's no merger between SpaceX and Tesla. If there is then the numbers get even more crazier because now you have exposed to SpaceX and SpaceX is just doing crazy insane things. But let's just keep here with Tesla. That's insane numbers right? But what's crazy here is that they didn't add Optimus.

[00:12:27]They did not add Optimus. And it's crazy because this is what they say here about Optimus. At $400 per share, we think investors can buy Optimus for free. For free, my man?

[00:12:40]No. I I I I don't think so. It's for free. There's a lot of Tesla investors who are invested heavily in Tesla just for the optimist. So, there is some stuff priced in. It's a little bit priced in. I mean, it's not technically free. It's cheap as heck. I agree. But it's not free. It's not free. Piper Sander maintained his overweight rating on Tesla shares at a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot related businesses, a figure the analysts view as potentially conservative. Potentially conservative. It's extremely conservative. He also says that on Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the human robot program combined with interface services arguably will be worth more than Tesla's other businesses combined. So if they knew this, why didn't they add this to the chart? Maybe the numbers will get way too bizarre.

[00:13:27]Maybe. Maybe. I mean, again, this is something that I mean combined 1.8 trillion. So that's what another 1.8 trillion. You're telling me that the that the revenue by 2045 if everything is just come more combined, Tesla could be generating 4 trillion in revenue.

[00:13:44]Give that a 15 multiple. That's 60 trillion valuation. And that's a stock price of nearly $20,000 per share.

[00:13:54]Yeah. Yeah. These are not number. These are insane numbers. That is insane. My price target for 2030 is only 3,000.

[00:13:59]These numbers are just nearly orders of magnitude more than mine, which is nuts.

[00:14:04]But I mean, it's good to see. It's really good to see analysts now pricing stuff incorrectly. Well, not correctly.

[00:14:10]I don't 100% agree with Energy at all.

[00:14:12]And FC licensing. If it does become true, maybe that number is right. But I don't know. We'll see how that turns out. But energy, I completely don't agree with. But it's good to see that they're viewing a Tesla not as not just a car company. And I mean the stock is up like 440 today. It's I mean I think it's for other reasons not just this.

[00:14:29]But it's good to see analysts are coming around and now finally seeing what's happening. And what's happening is robot taxi is now growing in mass scale. Check out this podcast between Robert Scobble and I. He talks about how the robot taxi is about to really take over. It's going to double and it's going to be faster than we all think. It's insane.

[00:14:46]Subscribe guys to become a channel member. Grab your popcorn. Watch the podcast and I'll see you guys in the next one. Let's flipping go.