Economic downturns typically follow a predictable transmission sequence where credit conditions tighten first, leading to reduced borrowing and spending, which subsequently causes hiring to slow down; this pattern is evident when US 10-year yields reach 4.6% while stocks may temporarily rise during geopolitical events, creating a misleading sense of market safety.
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Daily FinNews - Bonds Warn Trouble While Stocks Ignore It #financeAdded:
Your borrowing costs just got stickier.
US gas is near 4.55 a gallon and still carries a war premium. Stocks are up 9% since the war began. That should feel safe, but it is not. US 10-year yields are around 4.6% Credit tightens first. Hiring slows next. For the full analysis, check the link in the description.
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