🚩 Bitcoin's Weakest Days...

Ajouté : 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]I went through thousands of data points to find a structure in Bitcoin's price movements. [music] Is there a certain month of the year or a certain day of the week or another kind of pattern that helps us predict where Bitcoin might be outperforming or underperforming? Now, this year is the obvious chart you've probably seen many others already post before. And I will start this video with that chart, but things aren't actually that simple. This year is Bitcoin's average return at the top or median return at the bottom based by month of the year. In other words, August and September tend to be very weak months. The last quarter tends to be rather strong. Now, splitting any data set into 12 different chunks will always give us some structure, but that structure can just be random. Let's split it up into the weeks of the year to get a higher resolution. Then we move from this chart to this chart over here.

[00:00:57]Now, the stronger pattern seems to be that the last weeks of the year tend to make most money. Yes, August and September isn't that great still, but really the major point seems to be the end of the year. Now, let's go back to the monthly seasonality. Let's say we were to short Bitcoin in August and September. This would be our performance. So, apparently the seasonality effect seems to be stronger in the last 10 years. So, can we just use the months of the year or the weeks of the year to outperform? Hi, my name is Kjetil. I've been in crypto for the last 8 years. I hit my first million 3 years ago. In this video, I'm sharing again the approaches that I personally use in order to time the market and to distinguish noise from actual signal. On average, I've outperformed buying and holding Bitcoin by roughly 2% per month.

[00:01:47]That then leads to this long-term development. So, that's my portfolio measured in Bitcoin from a baseline of one. And that's then how that looks like with additional contributions to the portfolio. There was copy trading last year and this year as well. We are on target to reach our 40% per annum again.

[00:02:06]But let's get back to seasonality. What about the day of the week? Again, at the top the average performance, at the bottom the median performance. Now, if you don't know what the difference between average and median is, average is just that we look at all of the data points and then we add them all up. We divide them by the number of data points. The median is just the typical return. So, we look at the middle data point. How many data points are below and above and whatever's in the middle, that's the typical the median return.

[00:02:35]So, we get rid of all the extreme outliers that we might get with the average return that especially skew the data including all of the early Bitcoin price history, right? Where Bitcoin was much more volatile where they went up and down much more than it does nowadays. Looking at both, I believe makes sense. It shows us that Sunday tends to be weak and for whatever reason, Thursday tends to be very weak as well. Now, for all of those analyses, I've looked at the entire history of Bitcoin, but Bitcoin has changed over the years. I think the main cutoff where Bitcoin became a mature asset was at the beginning of 2018.

[00:03:12]Have a look at Bitcoin relative to technology stocks. So, that's not the Bitcoin price, but that's Bitcoin divided by the Nasdaq 100. It's a long-term chart. It starts in 2011. And since 2018, Bitcoin doesn't outperform technology stocks that much anymore.

[00:03:28]Before 2018, we had clear adoption. Post 2018, we did not necessarily anymore.

[00:03:34]Have a look at Bitcoin relative to gold, the exact same pattern. A lot of outperformance just up until 2018. Since then, Bitcoin behaves just like any other asset class. And I don't think that that's a coincidence because the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network also peaked in 2018. So, Bitcoin was growing very constantly up until 2018, but since then, it just stays where it is. And so, let's have a look at all of those numbers again starting from 2018, from the market that has been established since then. How much seasonality do we have if we just look at the data from 2018 to today?

[00:04:13]Here is now the performance by month of the year. Again, August is rather weak, but now we've also got a weak November and a weak February. A few very positive months might be skewing the overall average. If we just take the median, it's much more random fluctuation. Check out the weeks of the year. So, this is now a higher resolution picture of the month of the year approach. I'm not so convinced that there is that much seasonality looking at this. To me, this looks like almost random performance around the zero line. Before, it looked like the last quarter for Bitcoin is super bullish, but just including the data since 2018, that's not that obvious anymore. Here's the performance by day of the week. Again, interestingly enough, Thursday tends to be weak.

[00:05:05]Sunday is also still not the strongest driver and I'm not sure what's going on with the Thursday, why everybody exits on Thursdays, but it's definitely noteworthy. Now, let's spin this idea a bit further. Let's say Bitcoin is just another asset class now. It has already grown to maturity and now it's just competing versus tech stocks or versus gold. If we then look at relative performance, is there maybe some kind of seasonality? Is there a certain month of the year or a certain week of the year or a certain day of the week where investors tend to rotate from Bitcoin into tech stocks and from tech stocks into Bitcoin? Because we all know about the correlation, right? Bitcoin tends to go up and the Nasdaq 100 goes up as well. Bitcoin goes down, the Nasdaq 100 goes down. So, the two assets tend to move in the same direction at the same time. And so, let's run the numbers.

[00:05:57]Let's again use our backtesting platform. This is available to all the premium members of this channel, by the way. This is the new seasonality mode, but there's all kinds of backtesting modes. We can look at individual indicators or at indicator combinations.

[00:06:11]We can look at regression analyses, dollar cost averaging, etc. There's many different ways to look at the data and now we're looking at seasonality of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq 100. And we do this since 2018.

[00:06:26]So, since Bitcoin, in my view, has matured. And so, here is the performance by week of the year. The top is the average, the bottom is the median and I don't think there is a clear pattern here. Maybe we could make the argument that during the summer months, Bitcoin tends to underperform tech stocks. But once we look at the cut based per month, July on average is still an outperformer. Bitcoin still tends to do better in July compared to the Nasdaq 100. And so, combining all of this, I am not convinced that there is any seasonality in Bitcoin anymore. My impression is that there is too many quants in the game already. That too many people that have figured out those kinds of patterns and simple trading rules like this, like seasonality, don't really work anymore. If I had to draw a random chart of monthly outperformance or underperformance, it would pretty much look like that. Isn't this the definition of randomness? And so, that is why I like backtesting that much.

[00:07:26]That's why I like to look at the structure of data. This time it was about Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100, but we could do the same kind of analysis for all kinds of altcoins, for commodities, for individual stocks and also for longer time horizons, say the S&P 500 versus the money supply. We could look at all kinds of things, but of course, I don't have the time to make videos on all of those. But if you're interested in running your own backtests, there is the premium membership. It's currently 125 per month. There's also a one-week money-back guarantee in case you don't want to continue. If it's your first time here, feel free to subscribe. I publish here regularly. A like would be very much appreciated as well. It helps the channel grow. See you next time on YouTube or see you on premium. Cheers.