UK Property Market Stats Show - Week 17 2026

Added: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]If you are an estate agent, letting agent or somebody who is interested in the property market, then this the UK property market stats show is for you.

[00:00:11]My name is Christopher Watkin, and each week I'm joined by a special guest.

[00:00:16]Returning probably for the 10th or 11th time is the wonderful Ian McKenzie. He is the boss man of the Guild of Property Professionals, an affiliate program of over 800 estate agency firms around the country who know what they're talking about and they're led by this wonderful man here. Uh he has been in the industry, man and boy, and what he doesn't know about estate agency is certainly not worth knowing. So listen to what he has to say. He's absolutely amazing. Chap, thanks for joining me today, Ian.

[00:00:43]>> You're very welcome, Chris. Uh always always love doing this show.

[00:00:47]>> It's very kind. Very kind. Your insight is exceptional.

[00:00:50]Anyway, what does this show involve, ladies and gentlemen? If you've never watched the show before, it lasts about an hour split roughly into two sections.

[00:00:59]The first half of the show is where we go through all the statistics for the UK property market of week 17. I'll just go down to my diary. Week 17 is Monday the 27th of April all the way through to include Sunday the 3rd of May. and we will be comparing week 17 against other week 17s uh going back to 2017 and we will also be comparing the year-to- date figures. The property market is such a fantastic subject that the British are genuinely obsessed about and by talking about that we you can watch this show and be more knowledgeable about the agent but not about the property market.

[00:01:39]So the first half will be about the UK market cuz again I'm sure you're aware but when the land registry put something out about the property market it's in sales that took place 9 or 10 months ago. So that's the last summer the um Halifax and Nationwide are looking at sales that were agreed 2 or 3 months ago. We're looking at last week. So if you need your property market fix, you want to know what's happening, this is the show for you.

[00:02:06]The second half of the show is where we go to a town or a city and really deep dive on those estate agents and see who is the best estate agent. Now, obviously, if you're from this week's town or city, you're going to be all over that. This week, it's Swansea.

[00:02:23]If you're not from Swansea, you might not be interested in watching that part of the show. However, the analysis that we're going to use and the software that we're going to use is a piece of kit that enables you to show that you are a better estate agent. And if you are an agent who suffers from overvaluing or cheap fees from your competitors or you're finding it difficult to get called out to valuations, then that part of the show could be for you cuz we'll be dropping in some great advice and using the software which again you have access to the software from the firm and you can have what I'm going to show. You can have it for your own town.

[00:02:59]Without further ado though, Ian, let us go and have a look at the UK property market. Here we go.

[00:03:17]Right. So, this week we put onto the market 43,421 properties with an average asking price of £469,000.

[00:03:29]As you can see on the graph here, the white line is 2026 and 43,400 is one of the highest levels of listings since records began. Apart from that, we don't have we do have them, but I've not got them on this graph. I'd like to have a look at the listings back from 2020. I think they were slightly higher than that. But let's be honest, they were a strange market. But in more normal markets, that's the highest number of listings we've had in a normal market since 2017. Last week it was 40,200 40,900 the week before 32,000 the week before that. But again remembering that that was Easter and again we will the pattern and we will say this during this time of the year because we do this show every week ladies and gentlemen comes out on property industry every Friday that there is always a dip in Easter and there will be two further dips in all the metrics for May Bank holiday and um the the May bank holiday at the end. So again, we're looking for stuff up to Sunday. We're in a May bank holiday. So this this week's numbers are going to be slightly lower. Um year to date, um we put on the market 636,000 properties, which is 1% ahead of last year, 7.4% ahead of the year before, and 17.5% ahead of the precoid 17,8.

[00:04:53]Okay, Ian, quite a lot of listings, don't you think?

[00:04:57]>> That is that is a lot. Uh it'd be really interesting to see the price points of those listings. So, I know we're talking a macro level here. Um and you've got the the average the average. Um but the average is always skew skewed by the by London and the major cities. So, if you were to take London out, I wonder where that would sit against the average house price. Um, but it's just starting to feel that maybe the supply and demand curve is changing a bit. I think sales activity is still okay at the moment.

[00:05:28]We'll see that in a moment. But, um, it's just a little bit of a watch out. I guess the thing to to watch out is what does that do to buyers behavior? If they still see a property and like it and offer, then great. if they're just biting their time waiting for more stock to come to the market, that's when you start to see a shift in supply and demand.

[00:05:49]>> Well, uh it's the start of the month and we always do the stock levels on the end of the month going into the first of the month. So on the uh third is it January, February, March, April. On the 30th of April going into the 1st of May, there were 731,000 properties that were on the market. And if that is obviously 15 higher than than the April figures at 30th of April, 1st of May a year ago, but as you can see here, and this is the magic, I know that that uh number is hiding it. The growth did get up to around 750. And again, just because one one month, one week has got an extra 3,000 and more, remember, next week it is going to be somewhere in the order 30 32,000.

[00:06:42]>> Um, but you're absolutely right. What we've got to look at is the general trend. And again, we say this most weeks. I just love the the the the metronome of the property market. Look at the graph. They're always the same shape. It goes up and going up. Then in the spring it drops down. Then a few people put bought their houses on the market and they're just the same shape every time.

[00:07:04]Okay. So, you know, just good to see.

[00:07:06]And the lowest points are always in January as you would expect cuz we have a lot of clear out of exchanges. And then uh and then when we go to the 1st of Jan, there's not much stock on.

[00:07:16]>> So that's where those drops are on the 31st of December going into the 1st of Jan.

[00:07:21]>> Okay, let's go back. Um so let's just keep an eye on that one. Let's move on to price reductions and 26,633 which means that we're running uh in terms of price reductions um for the month of April cuz we always do this particular stat month in a 13.1% of properties were reduced uh which is slightly less than last month where it was um around the 13.8 mark um 13 somewhere around there. It wasn't that much different as you can see there.

[00:07:55]Again, look at the cyclical nature of of the property market. The shapes are always the same. But again, I ask this question of all my guests. Is is when we when you consider that only just over one in two homes actually end up exchanging contracts, is one in seven properties enough to be reducing?

[00:08:15]>> No, it's not. It can't be, can it? No.

[00:08:18]because um un unless every unless 50% of people are selling because their circumstances change, which is not the case, it's because the stock isn't priced correctly. So, uh, there just needs to be a better strategy, a time evaluation, and a better communication in that rather than putting a home to the market and let it drift and then not picking up the phone to the seller because you're scared to have a conversation because you've told them a some you've exaggerated, let's use that that word, you've exaggerated a little boy, a little bit to get the home to the market. Instead of doing that, actually have a really clearly defined strategy where every 2 3 4 weeks, whatever it is, you use data to go and have a conversation and you have a price correction.

[00:09:03]Um, and so it's 13% is nowhere near enough. In this marketplace, I would probably be looking at 35 to 40%.

[00:09:12]>> Wow. Well, well, well. But as you can see here, going back to 2019, it's it's always at that sort of level. Let's just remind ourselves ladies and gentlemen and this this that here and we will be looking at this in a bit more detail but only one in two homes that we put on the market do the homeowners move and we get paid.

[00:09:35]>> Yeah. And again, we bang on about this constantly and this this really is a the biggest shame in estate agency is the fact that we're only shifting and it again I've been having a interesting discussion with actually one of your members Andrew Anel and we've been having a friendly uh chat on social media where you know you know there's always you know we had it was this morning and he says well there's always that one property where you put it on for more and it sells. Well, the exception always proves the rule, but you know, the simple fact is this is, okay, if half of the houses are coming off the market, that isn't just because someone changed their mind.

[00:10:16]>> It's it's overvaluing. You know, the the vast bulk of it. And if anyone disagrees with me, please put the notes in the system. Send me a message. I'm always banging on about it. But it is this is this is the biggest problem in the state agency because we hate losing listings and we'll do anything in our power to not >> now is not now is not the market to be the most expensive house on the street.

[00:10:36]Now is the market to be the most appropriately priced house on house on the street.

[00:10:42]>> If anyone's watching this, I've got uh about eight prompts or dialogues. I hate to use the word scripts, but some people call them scripts. Um, and they are available to anyone on how to deal with pricing when you're in front of the vendor. Okay? And if you text me on the following number, I will and text me the words free scripts, I will send you eight scripts on overvaluing. I'll send you eight scripts on how to get beat cheap fees. Uh, five or six scripts on how to get price reductions with existing vendors. And then some other miscellaneous stuff as well, which will help you in your day. I don't want anything in return. All you have to do is text me on the following number 07950147572.

[00:11:28]Text the word free scripts and I will send them to you. I won't follow up. I won't chase you. I won't put you on a mailing list. You'll just you'll just get them and it'll be helpful to you because I want to help the industry as you do as well, Ian. And I'm quite I'm sorry, but when we are shifting one into I I say this story every month or so. I was babysitting some Australian estate agents and they consider a bad agent only selling four out of five homes that they list.

[00:11:55]>> Wow.

[00:11:56]>> I tell you what, there aren't many estate agents in the UK that are shifting more excluding Scotland. There aren't many agents that are shifting more than eight out of 10 homes. And if you are, you are exceptional. Truly exceptional. If you're seven in front of it, you're doing really well. Anyway, let's get back on the horse. Um, so price reductions, the number of price reductions, um, oh, sorry. We've the average price of a property coming down is 409. So, we've done the number of price changes and we've done the percentage of homes that were on the market. 13.1% of homes got reduced last month. Not good enough. Let's move on to sales. 27,674 properties with an average sale price of 368.

[00:12:42]Year to date, 421,983 properties sold to the contract, which means that we are 5.3% below last year, 4.2% ahead of 24, 12.5% ahead of 17, 18, and 19, and 14.6% 6% ahead of 2023.

[00:13:05]Um the white line, so this is all years 17, 18, 19, 23, 24, and 25. And then we've just started doing these graphs.

[00:13:15]You won't have seen this before, Ian, but we do these graphs where we just strip out the precoid levels to get a flavor of of the market, so it's just cleaner. Um, and I I what I will just say is I'll just leave this here.

[00:13:32]You wouldn't believe that, would you?

[00:13:34]>> No. That's very good. That's very good.

[00:13:37]>> Okay. You've got to go back to last June to have a week that's got had as many sale agrees.

[00:13:44]>> Yeah.

[00:13:44]>> Truly truly exceptional.

[00:13:47]So, it's it's very easy to focus on bad news and that's, you know, that's why I want to p punch this stuff out. So again, but do remember ladies and gentlemen, this number is going to come crashing down to somewhere in the order of around 23,000.

[00:14:04]>> Mhm.

[00:14:06]>> You know, next week's show, which which will be Friday the 15th, which we're looking at the week that ends this coming Sunday, which is Sunday the 10th. Yeah.

[00:14:19]>> Um numbers going to drop, but they always drop. Look.

[00:14:22]>> Yeah. and then they drop again because of the next uh east um spring bank holiday.

[00:14:29]>> Um anything you want to add to that mate? It's good stuff.

[00:14:32]>> No, no, no. I mean actually it's a really encouraging figure and it is so the housing market is built on sentiment isn't it? So sentiment being confidence and there is just a general feel that it's a bit of a fractious world out there. Uh inflation up um concerns around what interest rates will do. they held, but are they going to increase when when we're expecting them to drop a couple of times this year? So, there is just this um concern that the stock markets are overheating and that there's a bubble that's going to burst. And you are hearing a lot of this negativity and and that is the beauty of this show in that uh any agent that's watching this show and that's got this data should actually take this along and show to buyers to give them the encouragement and the confidence to to buy a house. My youngest daughter has bought has agreed a house this week. Uh she asked me and I said, "Yeah, it's a great time. It's absolutely a great time to buy something because um you're never going to it's not timing of the market, it's time in the market in the from a housing perspective, generally speaking.

[00:15:34]Um and I think this show with this data is actually a really good place to be."

[00:15:39]>> It's very kind of you to say and I wish your daughter well on that one.

[00:15:42]>> Thank you. Um what what I would what I would say is is that you know just what Ian has said is if you look at the data from the nationwide the real value of properties once you take inflation out is around 10 or it depends on the but around 10 or 50% lower than it was 10 years ago in real terms not headline pound notes but this is after inflation and again even in London mortgage payments are still cheaper as a percentage of take-home pay than they were in 2007 by around 10%. Out of London, it's 20 30%. But again, bad news sells newspapers.

[00:16:22]>> I send stuff to the I've got the journalist. If I give them a whiff of something bad news, they're on it. If it's good news, they just ignore it.

[00:16:29]>> Yeah.

[00:16:30]>> Right. Let's move on.

[00:16:33]This is a graph for those. This is quite a specialist graph. The red line shows you um residential sales as a percentage of listings. So if you put 100 properties on the market and you sell 80, not 80 of the 100, but just 80 out of your stock, that's a 80% uh sales to listings ratio. So that's that red line there. The blue line is just on the backdrop. Just shows you just overlaid or underlaid with with number of listings. Just nice to see some of you like it. Uh I think this is a more important graph is what percentage of the properties you had on the market in April did you sell and then UK 14.6% 6% of your stock sold through the contract in April, which again again I those of you who have not watched the show before is that you know in in the co times you you was you thought you were selling everything you weren't. You were only selling one in three which again I find again fascinating and again those that watch the show regularly know I always say that but some of you are new to the new to the stat show. Um let's move on.

[00:17:31]Um we're now talking about the difference between what properties came on the market for versus what they sold.

[00:17:36]Now again but this is really important.

[00:17:37]There was someone that put a a post out this this week and totally got the wrong end of the stick. So this week the average price of a property coming on the market is 469,000. We said that at the top of the show and then 368,000 is what the sale agreed price was cuz we don't know what they actually sold for but we know what the asking price was before it went sold contract. And again I a massive tip for you ladies and gentlemen.

[00:18:04]Hamptons do this have done this every year since the the millennium. Apart from the year of COVID, the average difference between the final asking price and the sale agree price is always between 0.9 and 1.3 less. Okay? So therefore, again, if you're doing your comps and you know what sold, you know what it's sold for, just take 1% off.

[00:18:23]Just say it's sold for the around this sort of figure. You'll be fine. Right?

[00:18:28]Lower price properties have a higher chance of selling, higher propensity to sell. Which means that if you put a 100 houses on the market, their average price is 469. But if you're only selling 2/3 of them and most of those are on the lower end, the average drop the that will drag the average down. Okay? So we're not So again, that the agent that mentioned that it isn't overvaluing.

[00:18:51]That's just misinterpretation of data.

[00:18:54]This is that's what's happening. Higher price properties have a lower chance of selling. Higher price lower price properties have a higher chance of selling which means it drags the average down. Because again I find it again totally fascinating that in Scotland one in eight uh sorry eight out of 10 homes sell that come on the market and inner London it's one out of three.

[00:19:18]>> Um this particular graph is just that's the standalone 17 weeks. This is just every week going up and down since 23 and we're just looking at the general direction on that. Okay. Um fall throughs. Let's move on to fall throughs. 5,927 which is in line hold on is this graph here which is in line with long-term averages. Okay. Um the percentage fall through rate is hovering has been hovering since Christmas at around that 21 or 22 rate which is pleasing to see when you consider that last year the average at this sort of time was in the order of around 22 to 24. Um so again just incremental pulling in a bit which is nice to see. Um what else we got? Uh again this has been updated because it's a new month. What percentage of your sales pipeline fell through in April UK?

[00:20:14]5.08% of your sales pipeline fell through. And again, look at the trend, >> ladies and gentlemen. That is a very nice downward trend. Um, it's not much, but again, it's like icebergs and super tankers. They are slow moving things.

[00:20:29]>> Yeah.

[00:20:30]>> Um, we've already done that graphic.

[00:20:32]Let's go move to net sales. So, this is gross sales less the fall throughs in that week. So if you had 220,000 sales and 5,000 fell through, 15,000 net sales, we're on 21,747, which means year to date we are on 330,000, which is 3.1% less than last year, 3.9% ahead of uh 24, 16.3% ahead of 23. Um, actually that says 13. It should be 16, but my apologies there, typo. And 9.4% 4% ahead of the pre-COVID 1718 or 19.

[00:21:12]Uh let's look at the the year to the not the year to date figures but the week by weeks and again net net net sales are growing. That's the white line because gross sales grew. Um but again it will drop down next week and again we've done the same graph here where it's pre postcoid just to clean it up a bit and again you can see where what's happening there. Again, it's not bad at all. But again, there's not We've already mentioned this with gross and the the the fall throughs were average.

[00:21:41]So, unless there's something you want to say on that before we move on.

[00:21:46]>> I I'm I'm listening and watching this in the same way that the uh your viewers will be, Chris.

[00:21:52]>> And um data doesn't lie. Data doesn't care about your feelings. And it is uh it's just evidence of the fact that the housing market is okay.

[00:22:02]And it's also evidence that if your home is not selling, uh, it's either marketed incorrectly or priced incorrectly. And this and the chances are that it is price.

[00:22:13]>> I mean, the wonderful everyone calls right move and you know, but the simple fact is is that right move has leveled the player field for everyone. In the old days when you had hair and I had dark hair, >> um, it was however many pages you could buy in the newspaper.

[00:22:27]>> Yeah.

[00:22:28]>> Now on right move, a level playing field. Okay. Put aside the fact that some pay less or more, which is important, but we're not talking about that today. Get spoken about plenty. The simple fact is is that the job of Right Move is to put your property in front of the punters.

[00:22:42]>> Yeah.

[00:22:42]>> It is not designed to get you more listings >> even though you're paying a lot of money for it. Remember, Right Move is a showroom, not a stock room. You like that one, don't you?

[00:22:55]>> Yeah. But it is also the advice that the um I met a person two weeks ago who's a friend whose house was on the market at 345.

[00:23:04]>> Yes.

[00:23:04]>> And I said to them, "You're at the wrong price point." He said, "I'm not prepared to drop." And I said, "I'm not suggesting that you drop. I'm just telling you that you're on the wrong price point because people look up to 350 on Right Move and you're now on page three." Um and uh so the advice that I gave was put the price up to 350 and have a bullet point which is £5,000 contribution towards stamp duty. Um and he did it and guess what?

[00:23:28]>> Oh he came out with the same outcome but actually it's just and so that's where I said marketing and or price. So so it it isn't automatically that the fact that the price is wrong. It's maybe the marketing strategy is wrong.

[00:23:45]>> Hang on. This is so right, ladies and gentlemen. You can see why we invite him back on a regular basis. He knows his onions, right? Let's move on. Price changes as a percentage of listings and gross sales as a percentage of listings. I know some of you like those graphs. Move on. Okay, so exchanges are in red and yellows are withdrawn. Again, we are filming this on Wednesday the 6th of May and there is a 2 or 3 week lag in this. So therefore, don't worry that exchanges and withdrawals are down. they are naturally and as we go throughout the week the month of May the April figures will rise steadily. So but in terms of the percentages so far in April 53.3% of the homes that left estate agents books exchanged the remaining 46.7 withdrew unsold. Okay. Here's an interesting fact for you um Ian. Okay.

[00:24:42]All right. So, um, as you know, I am a bit of a data geek and I was with Richard Donald from, um, from Zupla.

[00:24:53]And, you know, I'm good friends with the boys and girls at 20A. And when that property swaps agents of the properties that are currently on the market at the moment today, depending on the region, between 7 and 10% are on the market at the moment where they swapped agents straight away.

[00:25:15]>> Yeah.

[00:25:16]>> Okay. Left on one day, came on the market the next or within a few days.

[00:25:20]Okay. So 7 7 to 8 sorry 7 to 10% depending on the region are swappers with an immediate swap.

[00:25:30]But the real interesting part is and let me just pull his number up here. Here we go.

[00:25:40]25% of the properties that are on the market at the moment were previously on the market within the last 18 months to two years.

[00:25:53]So there's a, you know, a quarter of the listings that are coming on the market have been on the market. So when people do swap agents, not many swap straight away, but plenty swap between six and now what I'm doing at the moment is um um we missed each one's call an hour ago. Um I'm going to ask him to split that down. So, is there a sweet spot that you should be targeting withdrawals off off other agents? And >> it shows you taking getting an agent to swap straight away property. There's not meant much there, but there seems to be plenty there if you can get them 6 12 months down the line. Hey, but when I've got the data, I'll share it with you all.

[00:26:38]>> Yeah, that' be good. Be really interesting.

[00:26:40]>> Right. Okay. Um, again, this is a bit of a detailed graph. This is the proportional between for sale stock and property sold. Those are the numbers.

[00:26:50]And then, as I said, we'll just look at sales pipelines. Going into the 1st of May, 460,000 properties were in agents sales pipelines. And all of the yellow white lines there are uh 30th of April going into the 1st of May on each of the relevant years going back to 17. So, you can compare and contrast. Um, okay. Um, that's the end of the first part of the show, Ian. Um, unless you've got something that's burning you want to say, we can say the end.

[00:27:17]>> I think the market encouraging. I think I've said everything. It's encouraging.

[00:27:21]Um, just agents, uh, agents, keep keep an eye out on the listing to sell ratio and keep an eye eye out on buyers behavior to see if they're just delaying putting in offers and therefore potentially increase your skill set on how to extract offers at time of viewing. Good stuff. Right, without further ado, let us go to Swansea.

[00:27:53]Right, ladies and gentlemen, we are looking at Swansea and we're using a piece of kit called Insight. Insight is a data platform from the firm 20A. 20 EA are part of the 20CCI group. They basically what we're looking at with insight is right move plus on steroids.

[00:28:10]Um it produces five six times the amount of data and then gives you data in a form that you can use to counteract overvaluing cheap fees and get you called out to more valuations. The property the the data it the the platform itself I'm using today free of charge. um the date the platform generates all the data you've seen in the first part of the show and but again um agents can have access to this this platform. There is a free version which gives you access to your postcodes data for the last 3 months just so you have a play with it. There is a post you can have 10 postcodes for the cost of something like a decent takeaway every month uh for four people. There's a regional one and a national one. They're all the same. The only difference is that um um is the geographical reach.

[00:29:00]They all have data going back 5 years plus the year you're in. I'm not advertising this. I'm not giving a promo to it. If you like what you see, contact them direct and do not mention my name because I'm not on commission. There you go. Just got to cover yourself, haven't you?

[00:29:15]I should be on commission. The amount of people that buy it because they see the show. But anyway, without further ado, let's go and have a look. Okay. So, um Ian, you just jump in at any time as you norm as you normally do. I will just keep talking to the cows come home. So, the post the area we are looking at between the 1st of the 1st 21 to the 5th of May, which is Tuesday the 5th of May cuz we're filming this on Wednesday the 6th. The post codes that we are looking at are SA1 through to SA9. Okay? We are not looking at new homes. We're just looking at secondhand properties. The data that we can look at in this is all the things you can see there from exchanges, fall throughs, relist s contract, withdrawn, price changes.

[00:30:00]We're just looking at new instructions on this screen. There are better screens for the exchanges and price reductions.

[00:30:07]In the last uh five uh and a bit years, 27,979 properties have come onto the market at an average asking price, pardon me, of 250, 183.

[00:30:27]That number is really important because when we're going down the list of agents, the average price shows us where they sit in the marketplace in terms of lower to middle, middle, or upper quartile. Okay? And it's really important because again, the posh agents don't tend to go into competition with the two up to down agents. So, let's crack on. We're looking back, as I said, down to 2021. We're just looking at new instructions and let's get a flavor of what's been coming on. The first thing that you'll see is this graph here and this is the number of new instructions coming onto the market. So you can see here that in in a the last whole month that 525 properties came onto the market in those uh postcodes and then if we go back to 2022 it's 399. That is in line with national trends. So nothing particularly scary there. You will see this graph here shows you of those 250,000 houses which price range they tend to go in and again there's nothing abnormal against that up and down graph.

[00:31:32]It's all very very normal. We will now proceed to go down the list and see and the graph will come up and it will show us their market share and more importantly the trajectory of that market share. So before we kick off is do you have an agent client again let's declare all this do you have a client who who >> yeah Smith Smith Holmes Robert and his team >> good stuff >> I'm not sure they've been I'm not sure they've been going for the full time that you're looking at there >> not a problem we can allow for that.

[00:32:03]Okay, so let's kick ourselves off. And as I said, we start off with Dawson's.

[00:32:08]And you can see there that their market share excluding that 2021 uh that that spike there has generally been they had a good 22 and 23, but I don't know what's happened since Q1 in 23. Their market share has gone down from 22 and it's now hovering around the 12% mark.

[00:32:27]So again, that will be interesting to see later on. So what's been happening there? Now again, as Ian rightly said, the data doesn't lie. Uh, and we're not here to judge. Um, we're just here to highlight and then you know what's happened. So, please do not take this as criticism. And just because you're growing doesn't mean that you're better and just cuz you're dropping. I mean, there's plenty of agents there. You know, him Mark Ross from Red Bricks in Sheffield, his market dropped by 30%, his profit went up by 50. And the reason being is he wasn't taking on overpriced stock and not selling them. So we have to take everything with a pinch of salt.

[00:33:05]But there's Dawson's. Let's go look at John Francis.

[00:33:10]Okay. So they had a bad 21, leveled off in 22, grew in 20 late 23, but has been going in a downward trajectory since 25 with some pretty big spikes there. But again, interesting. Wow. We will look at the last year because looking at the last five years, you know, let's see, Cle Thompson Francis, love that name.

[00:33:34]Um, again, a general trend upwards in 21, 22, and 23, but has seen a general drift downwards since 24, 25, and 26.

[00:33:45]Isn't it interesting that all the so far all the players in the big three have been going in a downward direction? M >> but what's been happening again? We'll find out the answer in a second. Let's go look at Peter Allen.

[00:34:01]So Peter Allen if memory says well are part of the Connell sequence group and we can tell that because we've got the December spikes. Let's have a look. Here we go.

[00:34:12]There we go. So ladies and gentlemen, um Connell Secrets have their Boxing Day promotion where everything comes on the market in Boxing Day and you tend to get those spikes. But again, let us remind ourselves is that that's a big spike of a smaller number cuz look, these are the sort of numbers around 500 normally throughout the year and we're looking at around the three the the late 200s there. So, we have to take with a slight pinch of salt. Let's go and look at EXP.

[00:34:39]Well, Ian, I think we found our answer.

[00:34:43]EXP have gone from a market share of somewhere in the order of 1 or 2% to knocking on the door of 15%.

[00:34:53]That's impressive.

[00:34:56]Now I have done some homework on this.

[00:35:00]How many EXP agents do you think there are in Swansea?

[00:35:04]>> No idea.

[00:35:05]>> Double digits.

[00:35:06]>> Really?

[00:35:07]>> Yeah.

[00:35:08]>> Interesting.

[00:35:09]>> Yeah. So, you know, again, this is where the power of personal brand comes in is that, you know, just because you work for EXP, well, I know you don't legally work for EXP, it's a it's a license, but but again, you need to I mean, in my hometown of Grantham, there are three EXP agents and one of them takes 85% of the business.

[00:35:32]>> Yeah.

[00:35:32]>> So, you got to, you know, so it would be interested to see I we can't spit that down, but that is really good. Let's look at as is.

[00:35:42]Okay, I thought I'm just again there's a spike up there, but I'm just going to take May off because it because it is only and there's a bank holiday in the way. Yeah, I think that's better. I'll just go through everyone else just to clarity cuz just for fairness.

[00:35:58]Okay, we go to Belvoir.

[00:36:01]>> Yeah.

[00:36:02]>> So, around the four or five drift, drift, drift, drift, drift, and then you have got feast and famine there. So, uh, I think Ben and, uh, Ben and Daisy are there if memory says well. I used to work for Belvoir. Lovely couple. So, again, Ben, what are you doing? Feast and famine there. Purple Bricks.

[00:36:22]Okay, that's in line with their national figures. Number 86. Oh, well done. Look, nice growth up there to around 5%.

[00:36:31]What's been happening here? Slight drifting downwards again. What got you?

[00:36:35]What are you do? What are you not doing now that you were doing then?

[00:36:39]>> Really important. I did have a quick look at their website. Nice branding. I like them.

[00:36:45]>> Fresh estate and letting agents nice and steady.

[00:36:50]Oh, Smiths.

[00:36:53]Okay. Decent slowly growth but just a slight drift downwards there. So again, what are you doing or not doing there?

[00:37:00]Let's go and look at Simpsons drifting downwards. Yoper Sullivan's perfect paths. So again, quite spiky there. Feast and famine. Okay, we'll go down to number 20. We'll just let the figures do the talking.

[00:37:24]Okay, I'll go down to 25.

[00:37:31]Okay. Um yeah, I mean I the obvious thing here is look at EXP.

[00:37:41]>> I mean let's just have a quick look if we just did the last year.

[00:37:55]So it certainly looks like Dawson's who are in the orange >> last year were dominant. But what have Dawson's not doing and what are EXP doing? Cuz look, they've matched almost month by in the last few months almost perfectly. Are we going to have a situation where in a city EXP are the number one agent and Dawson's and John Francis? What do you need to do to beat those? Because Yeah. Oh, Belwar doing okay. Let's just have a quick look. Um, okay. Yeah, it's not bad. Come on. We'll just have a quick look. What you doing?

[00:38:33]>> The categorization in this instance of an EXP is like is the equivalent of saying that the guild are number one in a in a location. Um if because effectively if you've got 11 separate legal entities if they've got uh whatever the market share was that you just showed um >> Yep.

[00:38:52]>> It it was you know it's about 1% each.

[00:38:56]>> Yeah.

[00:38:57]>> Yeah. So so there may be a dominant one as is as is the case in in Grandanthm but I think just from that that is an amalgam rather than an individual office. Yes, it is.

[00:39:08]>> It's just the point to it's just the point to make rather than sort of jumping on the um EXP is wonderful and high street independent agents are crap.

[00:39:17]I you know I'm vehemently opposed to that personally because I think that the high street is actually in the world of AI coming and I'm I'm very careful with what I say here. But with AI coming, I think the high street will actually get stronger because I think that as all as all agents become opaque because they'll all have the same communication style and strategy because AI will deliver it for them, customers uh will need a point of differentiation and the good old traditional high street office which is not very vogue at the moment will become the reassuring piece to people into the future.

[00:39:55]I cannot disagree with anything you say.

[00:39:58]Um the self-employed model, I mean again, let's just let's just look at some cards numbers on the cards is that with the self-employed estate agents, okay, 80% of the exchanges go to 30% of the agents.

[00:40:15]>> Yeah.

[00:40:17]Which means if you look at the 70% left, they only have this the remaining 70%.

[00:40:24]They have 20% of the exchanges, which works out at six exchanges a year.

[00:40:32]>> Okay. An average fee of three grand.

[00:40:35]>> I don't know how you can make a living at that.

[00:40:37]>> Yeah. Average fee of three grand. But yeah, that's and that's gross that's gross income, isn't it?

[00:40:42]>> Yeah. Oh, and by the way, I've when I've done that calculation, I've taken off the total. I've taken off every agent that's joined the self that self-employed agent in the last year.

[00:40:53]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:40:54]>> So, I'm comparing today's exchanges versus 12 months ago number of agents.

[00:40:59]Okay. To to to and it's just not good.

[00:41:04]>> Not good at all.

[00:41:06]>> Interesting.

[00:41:07]>> Okay. And and but I think there are things that high street agents could learn from the self-employed model.

[00:41:14]>> Completely agree. Yeah, completely agree.

[00:41:16]>> And and again, you know, the self-employ and again 20 EA put this out a few days ago. They get something like 12 grand more than than the the average high street agent. They they they sell they've got a the chance of selling is 20% greater or something like that. If you go to 20A on LinkedIn, you'll see the stats.

[00:41:32]>> I think it's because their social media strategies and the porters won't like me saying this. I think that their distribution and communication from a lead generation perspective is more social mediaesque.

[00:41:45]Um, and I think their marketing strategies are the same.

[00:41:48]>> Yeah.

[00:41:48]>> And so actually is that's sort of the precursor of the changing footprint of estate agency.

[00:41:55]>> I mean I I got I've been shouted down but the two is this. If you look at most social media of most estate agents, if I went on we're not going to on this show.

[00:42:03]I didn't want to embarrass you. I've had a look. It is pretty poor. But most of your social media is listing, listing, listing, listing, listing, listing. Meet the team, look what we've sold, listing, listing. That's not going to attract people to you. A personal brand, but not not, hey, look at me, but just being helpful, useful, part of the community.

[00:42:20]>> Yeah.

[00:42:20]>> Talking about the property market.

[00:42:23]>> That is what attracts people to you.

[00:42:25]>> And yeah, so you and again, the other one which I get shouted at all the time is this. I don't believe the neg and the valuer should be two separate roles.

[00:42:34]You don't. Nope. Okay. Um I think that basically yes, you can have someone chasing viewings, but the valuer needs to chase all their all their vendor management and do everything, >> not to neg okay. You can have viewing pe you should do all your viewings. You can have someone booking the viewings and you could outsource your sales progression to someone who's good at it.

[00:42:56]>> That's what I would outsource, but I think the neg and the value should be the same person. But anyway, let's have a quick whiz through >> just just in regards to Smith Holmes, you can see them there in eighth place.

[00:43:06]Um, just to Robert because I know I know this cuz I've spoken to him. He has deployed us a um business plan where they get upfront uh contribution to put every single home on the market and he's quoting 2%.

[00:43:20]So, >> and the wonderful thing there is this is that for everyone that's quoting one, he only needs to do half to earn the same amount of money.

[00:43:27]>> Yeah. So he is and you know and he's been in regional meetings saying I'm using the tools that the guild have given me and this is and I'm sticking to it and we're doing quite well. Thank you very much. So yeah just to just to Robert if you're listening just thought I'd mention that for you.

[00:43:42]>> Yeah met him a few years ago. Nice nice chat. Looking at the half million mark price range just seeing who's moving and shaking and it's quite obvious that Dawson's are are there but again their trend is downwards. Also, Simpsons, EXP, well, as you would expect, nibbling at the old uh uh thing there. That's really good to see. So, EXP agents, I think Smith Homes there in Mumbles, which is that bit, the posh bit down on the South Coast, that bit pops out where all the groovy people live.

[00:44:12]Um, yeah, interesting. Cle Thompson. Um, don't seem to get much in that price range.

[00:44:19]Um, anyway, let's Oh, Peter Allen. Okay.

[00:44:23]>> Yeah.

[00:44:24]>> Number 80. Okay. There we go. We'll just go down to 15. Okay. We'll go down to just let the numbers do the talking. So, this is 500 to to 5 million in the last five and a bit years. Right. Move on.

[00:44:38]Okay. Here we go. So, this is spreadsheet heaven. Um, again, if you're not so far, if you're still watching this on a phone, you really need to be putting this on a big screen. So, what what's happening here? So, we're going to start off with new instructions. And we are looking here at this year's market share, which is the last 12 months. So, that's May 25 to May 26 versus last year's market share, May 24 to May 25. And you can see EXP's market share for new instructions are at 71, Belvar at 23, Yopra at 18, and all the way down there. So, you can see that.

[00:45:12]So, that's your your market share of new listings versus last year, and it's changed. And we'll just have a quick look at salt of the contracts.

[00:45:22]So again, is your percentage, you know, if your percentage for new instructions has gone up by 30% but your growth in sales has gone up by 50%. That's amazing. If it's the other way around, you're obviously taking on overpriced properties that you're not selling. So again, we'll just let the numbers do the talking. But the true magic here is here, ladies and gentlemen. And there is some absolute gold in here. And again, this is my my particular skill set, my Rainman skill set is I can look at a spreadsheet and turn it into something that is uh in a marketing message that will blow your mind. So, we're looking down on here and what we're looking at, ladies and gentlemen, is this column here. So, this for so I want you to ignore new instructions. I want you to ignore market share. I want you to ignore souls with the contracts. And I want you to ignore percentage solid contracts. It's just these four here because if you add up every line, the exchange percentage and the withdrawn percentage on each line, they all add up to 100%. Because what we're measuring with those four columns is what percentage of the homes that left your books did you exchange on? because that's one of the only two reasons an property will leave your books or the other reason it leaves your books is withdrawn which is 35.3 35.3 + 64.7 100. So, in those postcodes in the last 12 months, we can we're going to add up six. Well, let's go and look at Dawson's. 614 + 335 is 949.

[00:47:02]614 as a percentage of 949 is 64.7.

[00:47:10]Which means Dawson's can say if you put your house on the market with us, you have a 2 in3 chance of moving or a 64.7%.

[00:47:22]And what you guys could say is this 64.7 divided by 58.54 cuz that is the average in the city.

[00:47:32]With Dawson's, you have a 10.5% greater chance of moving home than you do with the average Swansea estate agent.

[00:47:40]However, there are some numbers in that list which are lower than the average.

[00:47:46]So therefore, if I had an agent, okay, so let's just let's just do that. If I was Dawson's and I was 64.7 and I was up against an agent, I'm not going to mention any names. You can see the stats there. We'll just have a a quick look so you can see that. Okay, but let's say there was an agent with a number, I don't know, 40%, for argument sake. You'd put your number in at 64.7.

[00:48:12]Divided it by 40, which means Dawson's could say, "Oh, see you're up against XY Z agent. I don't know if you wear they shift four out of 10 homes. We shift two out of three." Which means you have a 61.7% chance of moving home with us than them.

[00:48:28]Is that a risk you want to take, Mr. Vender? You got to admit that's powerful stuff. It >> is. Yeah, absolutely. Particularly if you then link that to fee and actually get a decent fee out of it.

[00:48:39]>> Yeah. So, let's just have a quick look down. Again, we we'll highlight the good ones and we'll let the the not so good ones speak for themselves on the numbers. So, EXP at 70.5%. Anything with a seven in it is brilliant. Okay. Um Cle Thompson and Francis at 71. I believe they're a little bit of a regional chain. That is really good.

[00:49:01]as at 6 number 86 at 77. Absolutely exceptional stuff there. Let's us go down. Yopra at 74. Again, a lot of people call them, but their numbers are really good.

[00:49:14]>> Okay, Smith Homes at 53. Now, again, I will say that the higher price properties have a lower propensity to sell. So, don't beat them up on that.

[00:49:23]The the higher price, we can change the listing price here if you wanted to.

[00:49:28]Just like that. And now all of a sudden the numbers will change. Okay. And you can have a look at that. But anyway, let's get put that back. So let's just see if there's anyone that's really catching us out there. Move. Okay. So we've done Yoper. Let's have a look.

[00:49:41]Let's go that perfect pads at 73.3.

[00:49:44]Massive. Well done there. Pubble living at 79. Uh Richard estate agents. The numbers are quite so you know this.

[00:49:52]Anything with a seven in front of it is good. Anything with late sevens is exceptional. Anything with eight is stratospheric. Um, Dorson, you need to be tough with your 64 because it's better than the average. And then there's something on there that you really do just need to pick your socks up a bit. And again, we'll let the numbers do the talking. Um, anything on that you want to talk about before?

[00:50:12]>> I think it's very self-explanatory.

[00:50:13]Yeah.

[00:50:14]>> Okay. Let's just look at the fall through rates. The average is 23.3. Is there anyone that's got a big high fall through rate? That one there, Peter Allen. So, they're um again um high fall through rate there. That just needs a touching a bit. Is there anyone? Let's just have a look. Okay, so anything in the low 20s is really good. Okay, so who's at 16? Simpsons. Well done. Okay, let's look at your price changes. Who's overvaluing? Who's not? And we do have an overvaluing screen in a second, which we'll get to. So, uh, the average is 42.

[00:50:48]So, who's at 62? That's quite high.

[00:50:51]Again, there's the link, ladies and gentlemen. if you're having to price reduce them, your exchange numbers will be lower. So, look, 50s and 60s. So, therefore, I suspect they're putting them on the market for too much. They're having to bring the price down and you end up listing houses less uh selling less of your listings. Okay. Okay. Oh, that's a big one. Purple bricks 73. So, again, right, we'll keep banging on.

[00:51:15]Let's go through this screen hereish is the overvaluing screen.

[00:51:20]Ian, just jump in at any time, mate. Um, so we're looking at all your listings in the last two years. Um, Purple Bricks, sorry, not Purple Bricks 20A have an automated valuation model figure for every one of your listings. And then when you put it on the market, it looks what you put it on the market for versus what he thinks it's worth. And then you look at the percentage difference. And okay, let's just have a look in the top ones. So therefore, John Frances are overvaluing by 1.92% exp.

[00:51:49]This is the difference between what they thought it was worth and what you put it on the market for. So there's some nice tight figures there. Anything with one in again John Francis and Peter Allen are knocking on the door of 2%. Again, look, Peter Allen and John Francis low exchange rate. Yeah. So therefore, there's a direct link. You overvalue, you bring the price down, they don't sell as well, and therefore you don't get paid as much. So therefore there if there's nothing that doesn't prove overvaluing that's one.

[00:52:19]Next this is again we're coming to the hour. I don't want to go over the hour.

[00:52:23]Ladies and gentlemen, what price did you achieve off the original asking price?

[00:52:28]Not the final asking price. What the original asking price? So Dawson's achieve 2.99% off the original asking price whilst um John Francis 5.52 off the original asking price. So they overvalued by 1.92 and then got hammered 5.5. And then we go down to Peter Allen.

[00:52:48]They got hammered 3.66.

[00:52:51]Now a lot of people don't like percentages. So therefore we move over to this column here which says this. If everybody put on a £250,000 house, the average Swansea agent would get 243,000. We'll call it 244,000.

[00:53:08]Give or take a few pounds. But then this is where the true magic happens. Okay?

[00:53:13]You see, look at this. EXP will get £248,369 for property, which is £4,414 more than the average Swansea agent. So, if EXP, if you're pulling your pants down on your fees and someone's knocking you, you can say the following. Mr. vendor for an average on an average Swansea home, who's the cheapest? The one with the cheapest fee or the one that leaves you the most money in your back pocket after you've paid the fee?

[00:53:49]>> Because whilst you're trying to knock me down a grand on my fee, I'm going to get you four grand extra in your back pocket. So, you'll net out three grand.

[00:53:57]So, what are you going to do? Save a grand or lose four?

[00:54:01]>> Powerful stuff.

[00:54:02]>> It's really It's exactly the point. It's exactly the point that agents should be able to articulate.

[00:54:07]>> Those are the those are the numbers.

[00:54:09]We'll let the numbers do the talking.

[00:54:11]Okay, there's, you know, there's some good numbers in there. And there's some that need improvement.

[00:54:18]>> Let's move on. How quickly do agents shift their houses? EXP agent. Look, they're taking an average of 46 days from new instruction to sale agreed. The average agent is taking 77 days, whilst there are other agents that are taking longer to achieve a sale. So the blue line is how many new instructions are to set agreed and then the pink line is how long are you taking with your sales progression on average 116 days for AXP the average is 117 these are going to be very very similar okay as you go down let's finish on the letings so um what we're looking at here is um we we don't know the size of the portfolio but I used to be national franchise man uh recruitment man at boss for Belvoir. So I know there's a direct link between the number of properties you rent out and there's a fixed equation depending on where you are in the country um and whether you are a student city or not and what your portfolio is. Okay. Um and let's have a look. And in number one position is open rent. And again look in 22 5% of the market was open rent and now it's 25.

[00:55:28]Again, >> everyone's shouting about EXP or Purple Bricks. This is this is your biggest challenge.

[00:55:35]>> Yeah.

[00:55:36]>> And this is the scary thing, and I know you noticed that, >> but 51% of those homes were previously on the market with a high street agent.

[00:55:45]>> That that that's your biggest problem as a letting agent, right, let's go with down. Peter Allen going to get some spikes in here because of the student market. There student markets. Yeah, there you go.

[00:55:59]know what it is.

[00:56:00]>> Dawson's have grown. Now again, that is that normally is an acquisition. It could be that's quite rare for it to grow that much. I'm suggesting that's a might not be. And apologies if it isn't.

[00:56:11]Okay. Student digs.

[00:56:17]I'll just let the numbers do the talking, ladies and gentlemen.

[00:56:38]final words from you Ian.

[00:56:41]Um I think this show is um really very much needed to bring balance and restore into the market. Um, housing market's always been built on sentiment. The world feels quite fractious at the moment, but the data is showing that the housing market's fine. It's actually a very, very resilient beast and it has been for many years. And an interesting stat I think it I think this is right, but maybe you'll tell everybody next year in the last 84 years of um of a state agency uh in the United Kingdom that the housing market has only dropped 16 times.

[00:57:18]So, it's a very vary and that that's a Anthony Coddlin piece of data for me, not for us. The housing market is incredibly resilient and um just trade appropriately. There's always regional nuances. Know and understand your local marketplace. Um and just be honest with customers so they can make an informed decision.

[00:57:38]>> Anthony Collins is a fantastic chap and uh a good friend of of us both, a fellow data geek. Ladies and gentlemen, um thank you for watching the show. Uh we'll be back next week for week 18 where we'll be looking at Notting Hill.

[00:57:52]We'll also be looking at the national uh story as well. Thank you for all the Swansea agents for looking and if you've got any questions, do give me a call. Be more than happy to talk through any particular stats that you have. Uh my daytime job is I use property statistics to turn into marketing messages to get you called out to more valuations and helps you secure more listings. Um I can only work for one agent in Swansea. So you can either I can either work with you or I can work against you. So if if that is of interest, do give me a shout.

[00:58:23]Otherwise, if not, don't worry about it.

[00:58:25]Um Ian, thank you for your time today.

[00:58:29]Exceptional as always. We'll get you back in a few months time. Your insight is brilliant. Keep keep the good ship the guild of property property thresholds going well and thank you for watching and we'll see you next week.

[00:58:40]Thanks Chris. Ciao.